Sports picks for Sunday, September 6, 2026

313 stored items

The stored Gary board for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Brewers· +122

Cincinnati’s top order gives me enough reason to take this price. Dane Myers, Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart have respective OPS figures of .851, 1.039 and .888 against left-handed pitching. Harrison has allowed 18 homers to right-handed hitters across 293 AB, and right-handers hit all five homers against him in his last start. That is a specific vulnerability this lineup can attack in a park that rewards home-run contact. The recent fastball results strengthen that case. Harrison throws his four-seamer 57.4% of the time, and its whiff rate fell from 31% to 6% across his latest two starts. De La Cruz has slugged .576 against four-seamers over 172 PA. Those hitter results cover different pitchers and handedness, but they support the matchup. My judgment is that Cincinnati’s best bats can make Harrison pay if that pitch remains hittable. His recent scoreless starts against Pittsburgh and Seattle show the rebound possibility; continued fastball trouble is an assumption, not an established condition. Milwaukee’s pitching advantage also depends on getting through the innings between Harrison and its closing options. Hall threw 34 pitches yesterday, while Ashby threw 42 across consecutive days. Neither is confirmed unavailable, but I expect those workloads to complicate Milwaukee’s choices if Harrison leaves early. Cincinnati scoring before Megill and Uribe enter is the central path behind this bet. The strongest argument against Cincinnati is substantial: Milwaukee starts seven left-handed hitters against Singer, who has allowed lefties an .859 OPS. Megill and Uribe also did not pitch yesterday. That keeps my confidence modest. I’m giving Cincinnati’s top-order matchup and Harrison’s recent fastball vulnerability enough weight to justify the underdog price despite Milwaukee’s advantages later in the game. I’m also assuming Cincinnati can use Burke and Pagán again after their respective 14- and 22-pitch outings yesterday. Pagán’s availability is the unresolved fact most capable of changing my decision. A decision to hold him out would weaken Cincinnati’s route to protecting a lead enough for me to reconsider the bet.

The recent fastball results strengthen that case. Harrison throws his four-seamer 57.4% of the time, and its whiff rate fell from 31% to 6% across his latest two starts. De La Cruz has slugged .576 against four-seamers over 172 PA. Those hitter results cover different pitchers and handedness, but they support the matchup. My judgment is that Cincinnati’s best bats can make Harrison pay if that pitch remains hittable. His recent scoreless starts against Pittsburgh and Seattle show the rebound possibility; continued fastball trouble is an assumption, not an established condition.

Milwaukee’s pitching advantage also depends on getting through the innings between Harrison and its closing options. Hall threw 34 pitches yesterday, while Ashby threw 42 across consecutive days. Neither is confirmed unavailable, but I expect those workloads to complicate Milwaukee’s choices if Harrison leaves early. Cincinnati scoring before Megill and Uribe enter is the central path behind this bet.

The strongest argument against Cincinnati is substantial: Milwaukee starts seven left-handed hitters against Singer, who has allowed lefties an .859 OPS. Megill and Uribe also did not pitch yesterday. That keeps my confidence modest. I’m giving Cincinnati’s top-order matchup and Harrison’s recent fastball vulnerability enough weight to justify the underdog price despite Milwaukee’s advantages later in the game.

I’m also assuming Cincinnati can use Burke and Pagán again after their respective 14- and 22-pitch outings yesterday. Pagán’s availability is the unresolved fact most capable of changing my decision. A decision to hold him out would weaken Cincinnati’s route to protecting a lead enough for me to reconsider the bet.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Tigers· -158

Detroit’s confirmed order puts five left-handed hitters in front of Williams, including McGonigle, Keith and Greene. Williams has held lefties to a .188 average and .597 OPS over 361 at-bats. That matchup carries more weight for me than yesterday’s Detroit outburst. His latest seven-inning start with 13 strikeouts and one walk shows the execution this bet needs, although his uneven preceding outings make repeating it an assumption. Cleveland gets Bazzana and Lowe back into the starting lineup against a right-hander. Their respective OPS figures against righties are .793 and .834. Jobe has recorded 11 strikeouts against eight walks over his last three starts, covering 14.2 innings. His four-seamer accounts for 35.5% of his pitches and has allowed a .464 xwOBA. I expect Cleveland to create opportunities through that combination of walks and hittable fastballs. Bazzana’s .481 slugging against four-seamers gives that expectation a specific matchup foundation. The available late-inning group is what makes me willing to pay this price. Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski threw 18, 24 and 17 pitches Friday, respectively, and all avoided Saturday. Their workloads support a normal finishing assignment behind Williams. Detroit also preserved Jansen and Holton yesterday, so I give its bullpen a credible chance to keep this competitive. Cleveland’s advantage depends on getting Williams into that closing stretch with enough offensive support. The strongest objection is Cleveland’s own lineup: eight hitters can bat left-handed against Jobe, who has allowed lefties a .214 average and .747 OPS over 56 at-bats. Lowe’s .497 OPS over his last 15 days also cautions against assuming an immediate rebound. DeLauter’s fresh wrist absence removes a hitter with an .806 OPS against righties. My judgment is that Williams’s matchup advantage and Cleveland’s finishing options outweigh those offensive limitations enough to justify -158. I’m assuming Williams works deeper than Jobe and the rested Cleveland relievers can handle their usual roles. A late announcement that Smith or Gaddis needs the day off would change my assessment of this ticket.

Cleveland gets Bazzana and Lowe back into the starting lineup against a right-hander. Their respective OPS figures against righties are .793 and .834. Jobe has recorded 11 strikeouts against eight walks over his last three starts, covering 14.2 innings. His four-seamer accounts for 35.5% of his pitches and has allowed a .464 xwOBA. I expect Cleveland to create opportunities through that combination of walks and hittable fastballs. Bazzana’s .481 slugging against four-seamers gives that expectation a specific matchup foundation.

The available late-inning group is what makes me willing to pay this price. Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski threw 18, 24 and 17 pitches Friday, respectively, and all avoided Saturday. Their workloads support a normal finishing assignment behind Williams. Detroit also preserved Jansen and Holton yesterday, so I give its bullpen a credible chance to keep this competitive. Cleveland’s advantage depends on getting Williams into that closing stretch with enough offensive support.

The strongest objection is Cleveland’s own lineup: eight hitters can bat left-handed against Jobe, who has allowed lefties a .214 average and .747 OPS over 56 at-bats. Lowe’s .497 OPS over his last 15 days also cautions against assuming an immediate rebound. DeLauter’s fresh wrist absence removes a hitter with an .806 OPS against righties.

My judgment is that Williams’s matchup advantage and Cleveland’s finishing options outweigh those offensive limitations enough to justify -158. I’m assuming Williams works deeper than Jobe and the rested Cleveland relievers can handle their usual roles. A late announcement that Smith or Gaddis needs the day off would change my assessment of this ticket.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· -106

Philadelphia's 7 left-handed hitters make Mahle's matchup the deciding piece for me. He has allowed lefties a .667 OPS versus .797 to righties. His coach describes a return to his four-seam fastball, cutter and splitter, and his last 3 starts carry a 1.96 ERA. That reported change gives me a reason to put weight on his improvement. His 6.16 season road ERA spans both clubs and different circumstances; I give the current approach more weight when pricing this game. Harper is the strongest objection, with a 1.036 OPS against right-handed pitching and a 1.116 OPS over the last 15 days. Philadelphia's supporting bats make the assignment more manageable: Turner has a .420 OPS and Marsh a .345 OPS over that same recent window, while Stubbs starts with a .371 season OPS. Those cold stretches can reverse, but this particular order gives me less reason to make Philadelphia the favorite. Atlanta gets Acuña coming off a 5-for-9 start to this series and Murphy carrying a 1.308 OPS over the last 15 days. I give those short samples supporting weight. The relief options strengthen the Atlanta case. Fuentes threw 21 pitches Friday and Iglesias threw 12; neither pitched Saturday. Dodd has not worked since September 2. Kerr's 35 pitches and Suter's 27 yesterday make them less comfortable options to count on, so my case depends on the other arms. Philadelphia still has a plausible finish through Alvarado and Duran after just 11 pitches each Saturday. I prefer Atlanta's likely bridge to its closer, especially with Philadelphia considering a role adjustment for Kerkering after his execution problems. Nola keeps my conviction modest. His last 3 starts carry a 2.00 ERA, his knuckle curve remains effective, and Olson is 0-for-7 in this series. Atlanta still has to create enough offense against a starter who has improved too. The home-run-friendly park creates risk for both pitchers, with the wind blowing in from left offering some mitigation. My pricing judgment is that Mahle's current matchup and Atlanta's likely relief options make the Braves worth backing at this near-even number. The assumptions are that Mahle's refinement holds up here and Fuentes and Iglesias can handle their usual roles. Their workload supports that expectation; a pregame availability restriction on either would make me reconsider the bet.

Harper is the strongest objection, with a 1.036 OPS against right-handed pitching and a 1.116 OPS over the last 15 days. Philadelphia's supporting bats make the assignment more manageable: Turner has a .420 OPS and Marsh a .345 OPS over that same recent window, while Stubbs starts with a .371 season OPS. Those cold stretches can reverse, but this particular order gives me less reason to make Philadelphia the favorite. Atlanta gets Acuña coming off a 5-for-9 start to this series and Murphy carrying a 1.308 OPS over the last 15 days. I give those short samples supporting weight.

The relief options strengthen the Atlanta case. Fuentes threw 21 pitches Friday and Iglesias threw 12; neither pitched Saturday. Dodd has not worked since September 2. Kerr's 35 pitches and Suter's 27 yesterday make them less comfortable options to count on, so my case depends on the other arms. Philadelphia still has a plausible finish through Alvarado and Duran after just 11 pitches each Saturday. I prefer Atlanta's likely bridge to its closer, especially with Philadelphia considering a role adjustment for Kerkering after his execution problems.

Nola keeps my conviction modest. His last 3 starts carry a 2.00 ERA, his knuckle curve remains effective, and Olson is 0-for-7 in this series. Atlanta still has to create enough offense against a starter who has improved too. The home-run-friendly park creates risk for both pitchers, with the wind blowing in from left offering some mitigation.

My pricing judgment is that Mahle's current matchup and Atlanta's likely relief options make the Braves worth backing at this near-even number. The assumptions are that Mahle's refinement holds up here and Fuentes and Iglesias can handle their usual roles. Their workload supports that expectation; a pregame availability restriction on either would make me reconsider the bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Orioles· -134

Bradish’s trouble with left-handed hitters matches the top of Boston’s order. Lefties went 6-for-16 in his latest start and 6-for-14 the start before, with a homer in each. Anthony, Gasper and Rutschman can all bat left against him. Gasper has a .986 OPS against righties and is 13-for-35 with five homers over the last 15 days. I expect that opening group to create enough pressure to justify the favorite’s price, even with Abreu sitting. Baltimore’s strongest counter is substantial: Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand have a 1.121 and 1.108 OPS against lefties, respectively. Tolle’s recent run prevention has also slipped. My reason for backing him through that threat is the rest of this particular matchup. He has allowed a .627 OPS to right-handed hitters, while Taveras, Narváez and Cowser carry respective OPS marks of .491, .460 and .482 against lefties. I expect Tolle to find enough outs around Baltimore’s dangerous middle hitters to limit sustained rallies. Boston’s late-inning plan also fits today’s usage. Whitlock and Chapman rested Saturday after throwing 10 and 11 pitches Friday; Miller last worked Thursday. That supports a credible handoff if Tolle again exits in the middle innings. Baltimore has viable relief options too: Garcia threw nine pitches Saturday, while Kittredge and Cano have had multiple days without an appearance. Boston still needs to earn its advantage through the actual matchups. The supplied facts carrying this decision are Bradish’s repeated damage against lefties, Boston’s batting order, Baltimore’s uneven production against lefties, and the recent workloads of Boston’s principal relievers. My assumption is that those matchup patterns persist enough today to make Boston worth this price. Gasper’s recent power and Bradish’s recent vulnerability will not necessarily repeat. The consequential unresolved detail is Whitlock’s and Chapman’s actual game-day availability. Their workload supports normal use, but that remains an inference. A confirmed restriction on either would make me reconsider the bet.

Baltimore’s strongest counter is substantial: Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand have a 1.121 and 1.108 OPS against lefties, respectively. Tolle’s recent run prevention has also slipped. My reason for backing him through that threat is the rest of this particular matchup. He has allowed a .627 OPS to right-handed hitters, while Taveras, Narváez and Cowser carry respective OPS marks of .491, .460 and .482 against lefties. I expect Tolle to find enough outs around Baltimore’s dangerous middle hitters to limit sustained rallies.

Boston’s late-inning plan also fits today’s usage. Whitlock and Chapman rested Saturday after throwing 10 and 11 pitches Friday; Miller last worked Thursday. That supports a credible handoff if Tolle again exits in the middle innings. Baltimore has viable relief options too: Garcia threw nine pitches Saturday, while Kittredge and Cano have had multiple days without an appearance. Boston still needs to earn its advantage through the actual matchups.

The supplied facts carrying this decision are Bradish’s repeated damage against lefties, Boston’s batting order, Baltimore’s uneven production against lefties, and the recent workloads of Boston’s principal relievers. My assumption is that those matchup patterns persist enough today to make Boston worth this price. Gasper’s recent power and Bradish’s recent vulnerability will not necessarily repeat.

The consequential unresolved detail is Whitlock’s and Chapman’s actual game-day availability. Their workload supports normal use, but that remains an inference. A confirmed restriction on either would make me reconsider the bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -146

The innings after Phillips are what make this price playable for me. Holmes has allowed one run over his past four starts and 25 innings. Phillips has been effective too, allowing one run over his last two starts, but those outings lasted five innings and 4⅔ innings. I expect Chicago to get more innings from its starter and more opportunities against Miami’s middle relief. There is a matchup behind that expectation. Miami starts six left-handed hitters, and Holmes has held lefties to a .589 OPS this season. Chicago has specific opportunities against Phillips’s sinker: Crow-Armstrong has hit .361 against sinkers and Suzuki .348. Phillips uses that pitch 26.4% of the time. Those results against other pitchers do not guarantee success against him, but they give the top of Chicago’s order a credible way to create traffic. Miami’s relief workload makes that traffic consequential. Fulton threw 26 pitches yesterday, Zuber 28, and Blalock threw 66 on Friday. Petersen last pitched September 2, and Faucher threw 18 pitches yesterday, so Miami still has a plausible late-inning path. My judgment is that covering the entire assignment after Phillips will expose enough of the remaining bullpen for Chicago’s lineup to justify this price. I am treating those workloads as constraints on deployment, without declaring anyone unavailable. The strongest challenge is Phillips’s sweeper and splitter, which have allowed expected wOBA figures of .263 and .255. If those pitches keep Chicago from reaching his sinker in favorable situations, Miami can keep the relief assignment manageable. Stowers and Conine also bring .859 and .937 OPS figures against right-handed pitching, so Holmes has meaningful threats to navigate. My assumptions are that Holmes works deeper and Chicago converts its matchup opportunities into enough offense. I also assume Zeferjahn remains usable after yesterday’s 19-pitch, five-out save. His availability is the unresolved fact that could change the ticket: a confirmed restriction would weaken the finish this bet needs and make me reconsider laying -146. I see a modest edge at this price.

There is a matchup behind that expectation. Miami starts six left-handed hitters, and Holmes has held lefties to a .589 OPS this season. Chicago has specific opportunities against Phillips’s sinker: Crow-Armstrong has hit .361 against sinkers and Suzuki .348. Phillips uses that pitch 26.4% of the time. Those results against other pitchers do not guarantee success against him, but they give the top of Chicago’s order a credible way to create traffic.

Miami’s relief workload makes that traffic consequential. Fulton threw 26 pitches yesterday, Zuber 28, and Blalock threw 66 on Friday. Petersen last pitched September 2, and Faucher threw 18 pitches yesterday, so Miami still has a plausible late-inning path. My judgment is that covering the entire assignment after Phillips will expose enough of the remaining bullpen for Chicago’s lineup to justify this price. I am treating those workloads as constraints on deployment, without declaring anyone unavailable.

The strongest challenge is Phillips’s sweeper and splitter, which have allowed expected wOBA figures of .263 and .255. If those pitches keep Chicago from reaching his sinker in favorable situations, Miami can keep the relief assignment manageable. Stowers and Conine also bring .859 and .937 OPS figures against right-handed pitching, so Holmes has meaningful threats to navigate.

My assumptions are that Holmes works deeper and Chicago converts its matchup opportunities into enough offense. I also assume Zeferjahn remains usable after yesterday’s 19-pitch, five-out save. His availability is the unresolved fact that could change the ticket: a confirmed restriction would weaken the finish this bet needs and make me reconsider laying -146. I see a modest edge at this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· -140

The price gives Pittsburgh more credit for creating separation than I’m willing to give this matchup. Ureña’s changeup is a specific reason: he uses it 33.4% of the time, with a .238 xwOBA allowed. Reynolds has a .251 xwOBA against changeups across 93 plate appearances. That gives Ureña a credible approach against Pittsburgh’s most productive hitter this series. His latest start supplied 7.0 innings, 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts and no walks. The Angels have an identifiable offensive opening against Skenes. Meckler has hit .367 against four-seamers over 95 plate appearances, and Skenes throws that pitch 40.6% of the time. Meckler’s .313 average against right-handers supports his place in that argument. Those pitch-type results come against multiple opponents, so they suggest an opportunity rather than establish an advantage against Skenes himself. Skenes’ recent execution also matters: 13 strikeouts and 7 walks over his last 15.0 innings. The club’s reported attention to his volume makes the innings after his departure meaningful to this decision. I’m giving Los Angeles a reasonable chance to generate enough offense to make the run-line protection valuable. The Angels’ relief options support that judgment. Joyce last threw 13 pitches on September 2, Natera threw 24 on September 4, and Watson needed only 6 yesterday. Their usage supports a plausible late-inning route around Fermin’s consecutive-day appearances and Murphy’s recent damage. Pittsburgh has substantial counterarguments. Brandon Lowe’s .888 OPS and Cruz’s .838 against right-handers give Ureña difficult assignments. Montgomery rested yesterday, and Weaver last threw 13 pitches on September 3, so Pittsburgh has credible finishing options. Ureña’s preceding start—5 walks in 3.2 innings—is the clearest warning against trusting his latest command too heavily. My assumption is that Ureña carries enough of that improved command into this matchup to keep Pittsburgh from repeatedly turning free runners into scoring opportunities. I also expect Joyce and Natera to be usable in meaningful innings. Their actual availability is the unresolved fact that could change this bet: a pregame restriction on either would weaken the relief plan supporting the Angels’ cushion. I see a modest edge at this price.

The Angels have an identifiable offensive opening against Skenes. Meckler has hit .367 against four-seamers over 95 plate appearances, and Skenes throws that pitch 40.6% of the time. Meckler’s .313 average against right-handers supports his place in that argument. Those pitch-type results come against multiple opponents, so they suggest an opportunity rather than establish an advantage against Skenes himself.

Skenes’ recent execution also matters: 13 strikeouts and 7 walks over his last 15.0 innings. The club’s reported attention to his volume makes the innings after his departure meaningful to this decision. I’m giving Los Angeles a reasonable chance to generate enough offense to make the run-line protection valuable.

The Angels’ relief options support that judgment. Joyce last threw 13 pitches on September 2, Natera threw 24 on September 4, and Watson needed only 6 yesterday. Their usage supports a plausible late-inning route around Fermin’s consecutive-day appearances and Murphy’s recent damage.

Pittsburgh has substantial counterarguments. Brandon Lowe’s .888 OPS and Cruz’s .838 against right-handers give Ureña difficult assignments. Montgomery rested yesterday, and Weaver last threw 13 pitches on September 3, so Pittsburgh has credible finishing options. Ureña’s preceding start—5 walks in 3.2 innings—is the clearest warning against trusting his latest command too heavily.

My assumption is that Ureña carries enough of that improved command into this matchup to keep Pittsburgh from repeatedly turning free runners into scoring opportunities. I also expect Joyce and Natera to be usable in meaningful innings. Their actual availability is the unresolved fact that could change this bet: a pregame restriction on either would weaken the relief plan supporting the Angels’ cushion. I see a modest edge at this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· +140

Scott’s recent command creates scoring opportunities I think this price undervalues. His last three starts produced 11 walks against 15 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. That matters against Devers, who owns a 1.012 OPS against right-handers over 347 at-bats, and Eldridge, whose .360 season OBP and 54 walks give San Francisco another way to put runners aboard. I expect that combination to trouble Scott before New York can turn to its better-rested relievers. Perdomo’s left-handedness also changes the matchup for the Mets. Soto has a .767 OPS against lefties compared with 1.022 against righties; Lindor has .689 compared with .776. Perdomo supplied four innings with one earned run, four strikeouts and one walk in his relief debut. That gives me a reason to expect competitive opening innings, although his 5.10 Triple-A ERA prevents me from treating that debut as an established level of performance. The strongest argument against this ticket is New York’s ability to respond. Vientos and Bichette have supplied OPS figures against lefties of .917 and .810. Duarte and Lavender last pitched September 2, while Senga threw ten pitches September 4 and did not pitch yesterday. San Francisco used five relievers yesterday, and Marte threw 62 pitches Friday. The Giants still have Dylan Smith, who last pitched September 2, but I give the Mets the advantage in arranging their relief innings. My judgment is that San Francisco’s opportunities against Scott outweigh those disadvantages enough to justify +140. That assumes Scott’s command remains vulnerable and Perdomo delivers a competitive opening stretch; neither follows automatically from their recent results. The unresolved fact most capable of changing my decision is Perdomo’s intended workload: a confirmed short limit would force San Francisco to cover more innings with its recently used bullpen. This is a modest-confidence bet.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Washington State Cougars· -110

The Apple Cup opens the season on a Sunday afternoon at Husky Stadium. Both teams begin their year with the rivalry immediately testing what they rebuilt over the offseason. I’m laying the points because Washington’s returning strengths match up with demanding transitions for Washington State. Washington brings back 11 defenders who started at least one game in 2025, when its defense finished the regular season No. 11 nationally against the run. WSU’s projected interior offensive line includes players preparing for some of their first college snaps. My expectation is that Washington can interrupt the running game often enough to put Caden Pinnick into passing situations where that new protection must hold together. Washington also retains Demond Williams Jr. and its offensive play-caller. Williams threw 25 touchdowns against eight interceptions in 2025; his familiarity with the offense matters against a WSU defense returning no starters. The Cougars’ stated containment plan requires coordinated pressure and pursuit. I expect Washington to exploit enough breakdowns in that coordination to sustain touchdown drives. That is my four-quarter case for laying 23.5: defensive stops creating opportunities, and an established quarterback converting enough of them into separation. WSU’s strongest answer is an offense capable of keeping possessions alive. Pinnick threw 32 touchdowns against 10 interceptions at UC Davis in 2025, and Tony Freeman and Kirby Vorhees provide returning offensive anchors. If they sustain drives while the defense contains Williams, the Cougars have a credible path inside this number. Washington’s reconfigured offensive line and replacement of established rushing and receiving production are the strongest obstacles to the favorite covering. I give Washington’s path more weight because WSU’s offensive answers depend on that inexperienced projected interior holding up, while its rebuilt defense must execute containment throughout the game. The central assumptions are that Washington’s reworked line provides adequate protection and its returning defensive experience translates into control against WSU’s interior. Neither is an established result for this season. The unresolved personnel detail that could change my decision is WSU’s actual interior-line configuration: a confirmed group materially more experienced than the projected unit would weaken a central reason for laying these points. With the projected matchup, Washington -23.5 is my bet.

The Apple Cup opens the season on a Sunday afternoon at Husky Stadium. Both teams begin their year with the rivalry immediately testing what they rebuilt over the offseason.

I’m laying the points because Washington’s returning strengths match up with demanding transitions for Washington State. Washington brings back 11 defenders who started at least one game in 2025, when its defense finished the regular season No. 11 nationally against the run. WSU’s projected interior offensive line includes players preparing for some of their first college snaps. My expectation is that Washington can interrupt the running game often enough to put Caden Pinnick into passing situations where that new protection must hold together.

Washington also retains Demond Williams Jr. and its offensive play-caller. Williams threw 25 touchdowns against eight interceptions in 2025; his familiarity with the offense matters against a WSU defense returning no starters. The Cougars’ stated containment plan requires coordinated pressure and pursuit. I expect Washington to exploit enough breakdowns in that coordination to sustain touchdown drives. That is my four-quarter case for laying 23.5: defensive stops creating opportunities, and an established quarterback converting enough of them into separation.

WSU’s strongest answer is an offense capable of keeping possessions alive. Pinnick threw 32 touchdowns against 10 interceptions at UC Davis in 2025, and Tony Freeman and Kirby Vorhees provide returning offensive anchors. If they sustain drives while the defense contains Williams, the Cougars have a credible path inside this number. Washington’s reconfigured offensive line and replacement of established rushing and receiving production are the strongest obstacles to the favorite covering. I give Washington’s path more weight because WSU’s offensive answers depend on that inexperienced projected interior holding up, while its rebuilt defense must execute containment throughout the game.

The central assumptions are that Washington’s reworked line provides adequate protection and its returning defensive experience translates into control against WSU’s interior. Neither is an established result for this season. The unresolved personnel detail that could change my decision is WSU’s actual interior-line configuration: a confirmed group materially more experienced than the projected unit would weaken a central reason for laying these points. With the projected matchup, Washington -23.5 is my bet.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Astros· -106

I expect Lambert’s walks to bring Houston’s bullpen into this game early, and Arizona has the more workable relief options behind its starter. Lambert has issued 10 walks in his last 14.0 innings and needed 104 pitches without finishing the fifth inning in his latest start. That matters today: Hader and De Los Santos pitched Friday and Saturday, while Blubaugh threw 31 pitches yesterday. Arizona has more room to distribute the remaining outs. Garcia threw 13 pitches yesterday and Ginkel threw 12; both had Friday off. Martinez and Law sat yesterday. Those appearances support a reasonable expectation of usable options today, although they do not guarantee availability. Abreu and Sousa also sat yesterday, giving Houston credible answers of its own. My judgment is that Arizona’s flexibility becomes more valuable if Lambert’s walks force another early handoff. Rodriguez also has a manageable assignment against Houston’s seven right-handed starters: right-handed hitters have produced a .227 average and .668 OPS against him. Houston sits Diaz after his 4-for-7 series with a homer and starts Vázquez, whose OPS against lefties is .622. Arizona’s clearest offensive matchup is Moreno, who has hit .307 with an .869 OPS against right-handed pitching. Those details support Arizona at this near-even price without requiring its entire lineup to start hitting. The counterargument is substantial. Rodriguez allowed eight hits and three walks in his latest start, while Arizona brings Carroll’s 1-for-23 and Arenado’s 2-for-22 over the last seven days. Lambert’s two latest outings each ended with only two earned runs allowed, despite the baserunners. Houston can win this matchup if he keeps containing that damage. The assumptions carrying my bet are that Rodriguez supplies enough innings to preserve Arizona’s bullpen choices, and that its principal late-inning relievers can work again. I see a modest advantage. A pregame decision to rest Garcia and Morillo would make me reconsider, because the ability to cover those later innings is central to this pick.

Arizona has more room to distribute the remaining outs. Garcia threw 13 pitches yesterday and Ginkel threw 12; both had Friday off. Martinez and Law sat yesterday. Those appearances support a reasonable expectation of usable options today, although they do not guarantee availability. Abreu and Sousa also sat yesterday, giving Houston credible answers of its own. My judgment is that Arizona’s flexibility becomes more valuable if Lambert’s walks force another early handoff.

Rodriguez also has a manageable assignment against Houston’s seven right-handed starters: right-handed hitters have produced a .227 average and .668 OPS against him. Houston sits Diaz after his 4-for-7 series with a homer and starts Vázquez, whose OPS against lefties is .622. Arizona’s clearest offensive matchup is Moreno, who has hit .307 with an .869 OPS against right-handed pitching. Those details support Arizona at this near-even price without requiring its entire lineup to start hitting.

The counterargument is substantial. Rodriguez allowed eight hits and three walks in his latest start, while Arizona brings Carroll’s 1-for-23 and Arenado’s 2-for-22 over the last seven days. Lambert’s two latest outings each ended with only two earned runs allowed, despite the baserunners. Houston can win this matchup if he keeps containing that damage.

The assumptions carrying my bet are that Rodriguez supplies enough innings to preserve Arizona’s bullpen choices, and that its principal late-inning relievers can work again. I see a modest advantage. A pregame decision to rest Garcia and Morillo would make me reconsider, because the ability to cover those later innings is central to this pick.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -122

Kansas City’s lineup removes some of the bats best positioned to punish Arrighetti. Caglianone is out with a fresh elbow issue, while Jensen and Massey are on the bench. Arrighetti has allowed an .803 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .582 to right-handers. Caglianone’s .861 OPS against right-handed pitching makes his absence particularly relevant here. I expect this lineup to give Arrighetti a more manageable assignment than their previous meeting. Toronto brings six left-handed hitters plus a switch hitter against Dobnak. Left-handed hitters accounted for both homers in his latest start, and Lukes’ .758 OPS and Sánchez’s .792 against right-handers give Toronto relevant offensive options. That supports the matchup case, although Toronto is also resting regulars; I’m putting limited weight on the team’s recent scoring surge with a different nine playing today. The late innings carry substantial weight in my decision. Rogers threw 12 pitches yesterday and Varland 13, with both having Friday off. Fisher and Miles also did not pitch yesterday. Those individual workloads support my expectation that Toronto can reach its established Rogers-to-Varland finish. Kansas City’s strongest counterargument is starting length. Dobnak completed six innings in each of his last two starts, including three earned runs against Toronto. Pearson and Cruz both had Friday and Saturday off, giving Kansas City a credible relief path too. An early Arrighetti exit could force Toronto through additional innings before its preferred late relievers matter. My judgment is that Kansas City’s reduced lineup and Toronto’s batting configuration and late-inning options outweigh that starting-length advantage at this price. The assumptions are that Arrighetti keeps the game competitive through his assignment and Rogers and Varland can pitch again. Their workloads support availability; they do not confirm it. A confirmed rest day for Varland would make me reconsider paying this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· -108

Texas’ confirmed batting order gives me enough offense against this particular starter to favor the Rangers. Foscue has a 1.013 OPS against lefties and a .980 OPS over his last 15 days. Duran brings an .868 OPS against lefties. Nimmo’s .865 OPS against lefties also matters because Seymour has allowed an .836 OPS to left-handed hitters. My judgment is that Texas can generate damaging contact here despite Seymour’s ability to collect strikeouts. Gore faces meaningful threats in Yandy Díaz and Caminero, but there are opportunities to interrupt rallies elsewhere. Aranda has a .624 OPS against lefties, DeLuca .666 and Mateo .590. The assumption I’m making is that Gore can exploit those spots without putting extra runners aboard for Tampa Bay’s strongest hitters. His four walks in each of his last two starts make that an assumption with a clear failure point. The recent relief assignments push me further toward Texas. Wells threw 27 pitches over two innings yesterday after also pitching Friday. Latz threw 22 pitches yesterday, but had not appeared in the first two games of the series. Silseth had Saturday off after nine pitches Friday. I give Texas a modest advantage in arranging its late innings from those workloads, while recognizing that Alexander has also worked consecutive days. Seymour is the strongest argument against this ticket. He has held right-handed hitters to a .656 OPS, Texas starts seven of them, and his latest outing produced 10 strikeouts without a walk. I’m backing Texas on the judgment that its offensive opportunities and relief options outweigh that advantage. The unresolved fact that could change my decision is Tampa Bay’s actual relief availability. Kelly and Booser also pitched Friday and Saturday, but their combined workloads across those appearances were only 22 and 12 pitches, respectively. Confirmation that they and Wells can handle their usual assignments would substantially weaken the late-inning advantage I’m assigning Texas. That keeps this a modest-confidence bet at -108.

Gore faces meaningful threats in Yandy Díaz and Caminero, but there are opportunities to interrupt rallies elsewhere. Aranda has a .624 OPS against lefties, DeLuca .666 and Mateo .590. The assumption I’m making is that Gore can exploit those spots without putting extra runners aboard for Tampa Bay’s strongest hitters. His four walks in each of his last two starts make that an assumption with a clear failure point.

The recent relief assignments push me further toward Texas. Wells threw 27 pitches over two innings yesterday after also pitching Friday. Latz threw 22 pitches yesterday, but had not appeared in the first two games of the series. Silseth had Saturday off after nine pitches Friday. I give Texas a modest advantage in arranging its late innings from those workloads, while recognizing that Alexander has also worked consecutive days.

Seymour is the strongest argument against this ticket. He has held right-handed hitters to a .656 OPS, Texas starts seven of them, and his latest outing produced 10 strikeouts without a walk. I’m backing Texas on the judgment that its offensive opportunities and relief options outweigh that advantage.

The unresolved fact that could change my decision is Tampa Bay’s actual relief availability. Kelly and Booser also pitched Friday and Saturday, but their combined workloads across those appearances were only 22 and 12 pitches, respectively. Confirmation that they and Wells can handle their usual assignments would substantially weaken the late-inning advantage I’m assigning Texas. That keeps this a modest-confidence bet at -108.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· +118

Colorado’s lineup makes Leahy’s weakness against left-handed hitters central to this game. He has allowed them an .847 OPS, compared with .595 against right-handed hitters, and Colorado starts six left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters. McCarthy has a specific opening against Leahy’s most-used pitch: he has slugged .632 against four-seamers, while Leahy’s four-seamer has allowed a .438 xwOBA. Rumfield’s .862 OPS against right-handers gives Colorado another productive matchup near the top. Gordon’s recent outings give me enough reason to back Colorado through the starting-pitching portion. He allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts, including his latest outing at Coors. His last three starts produced 3 BB in 17.1 IP. I’m betting that recent control carries into this game. His difficult home history remains a risk, but I think these latest outings narrow the advantage St. Louis deserves for starting Leahy. Colorado also has workable relief choices. Herget and Manfredi did not pitch Saturday, while Hill and Frasso needed 15 and 12 pitches for their scoreless innings. Romano’s 34 pitches across Friday and Saturday make the ninth inning a concern. St. Louis has a credible answer in Graceffo, Stanek, Soriano and O’Brien, all of whom sat Saturday. Goodman sitting also reduces the power in Colorado’s starting lineup. Those are substantial reasons to keep this a modest-confidence play. My judgment is that Colorado’s matchup against Leahy, supported by Gordon’s recent control, makes the underdog worth this price. I’m assuming Gordon sustains that control and Leahy’s recent workload protection remains relevant today; another shortened start is a possibility, not an announced restriction. The unresolved detail that could change my decision is St. Louis’ intended pitching sequence. A confirmed extended assignment for Hjerpe behind Leahy would make me reassess how often Colorado gets the favorable right-handed matchups supporting this bet. Johnston and Moniak have substantially weaker supplied splits against left-handers, so that potential change matters directly to the case.

Gordon’s recent outings give me enough reason to back Colorado through the starting-pitching portion. He allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts, including his latest outing at Coors. His last three starts produced 3 BB in 17.1 IP. I’m betting that recent control carries into this game. His difficult home history remains a risk, but I think these latest outings narrow the advantage St. Louis deserves for starting Leahy.

Colorado also has workable relief choices. Herget and Manfredi did not pitch Saturday, while Hill and Frasso needed 15 and 12 pitches for their scoreless innings. Romano’s 34 pitches across Friday and Saturday make the ninth inning a concern. St. Louis has a credible answer in Graceffo, Stanek, Soriano and O’Brien, all of whom sat Saturday. Goodman sitting also reduces the power in Colorado’s starting lineup. Those are substantial reasons to keep this a modest-confidence play.

My judgment is that Colorado’s matchup against Leahy, supported by Gordon’s recent control, makes the underdog worth this price. I’m assuming Gordon sustains that control and Leahy’s recent workload protection remains relevant today; another shortened start is a possibility, not an announced restriction.

The unresolved detail that could change my decision is St. Louis’ intended pitching sequence. A confirmed extended assignment for Hjerpe behind Leahy would make me reassess how often Colorado gets the favorable right-handed matchups supporting this bet. Johnston and Moniak have substantially weaker supplied splits against left-handers, so that potential change matters directly to the case.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Yankees· -106

The advantage I’m buying is San Diego’s ability to turn from King to its preferred relievers. Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez and Yuki Matsui all sat yesterday after throwing 22, 14, 9 and 12 pitches Friday. The club’s reported willingness to shorten starters’ leashes makes those options particularly relevant. I give that potential finishing group more weight tonight than the nearly identical season bullpen ERAs. King’s matchup supports that approach. He brings a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts and a .638 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters this season. New York’s listed order is heavily left-handed, but its strength varies considerably: Spencer Jones has a .670 OPS against righties and Jasson Domínguez .585. My expectation is that King can limit the supporting production around the Yankees’ strongest bats. San Diego also has specific ways to challenge Cole. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .416 xwOBA against four-seamers and .418 against sliders, Cole’s primary offerings. Ty France brings a .893 OPS against right-handed pitching. Those season samples support an offensive path, although the pitch-type results cover many pitchers and cannot establish how these individual matchups will unfold. The Yankees’ strongest answers keep my edge modest. Ben Rice’s .929 OPS and Luis García Jr.’s .904 against righties make them substantial threats to King. Cole has 18 strikeouts against three walks over his last three starts, and David Bednar and Paul Blackburn also rested yesterday. New York has credible ways to win both the starting-pitching matchup and the later innings. My judgment is that King’s fit and San Diego’s relief options together justify backing the Padres at this near-even price. That assumes the listed batting orders hold and the preferred finishers can pitch today. The unresolved fact most likely to change my decision is their actual availability: a pregame announcement that Miller or Morejon cannot pitch would materially weaken the central reason for this bet.

King’s matchup supports that approach. He brings a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts and a .638 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters this season. New York’s listed order is heavily left-handed, but its strength varies considerably: Spencer Jones has a .670 OPS against righties and Jasson Domínguez .585. My expectation is that King can limit the supporting production around the Yankees’ strongest bats.

San Diego also has specific ways to challenge Cole. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .416 xwOBA against four-seamers and .418 against sliders, Cole’s primary offerings. Ty France brings a .893 OPS against right-handed pitching. Those season samples support an offensive path, although the pitch-type results cover many pitchers and cannot establish how these individual matchups will unfold.

The Yankees’ strongest answers keep my edge modest. Ben Rice’s .929 OPS and Luis García Jr.’s .904 against righties make them substantial threats to King. Cole has 18 strikeouts against three walks over his last three starts, and David Bednar and Paul Blackburn also rested yesterday. New York has credible ways to win both the starting-pitching matchup and the later innings.

My judgment is that King’s fit and San Diego’s relief options together justify backing the Padres at this near-even price. That assumes the listed batting orders hold and the preferred finishers can pitch today. The unresolved fact most likely to change my decision is their actual availability: a pregame announcement that Miller or Morejon cannot pitch would materially weaken the central reason for this bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· +114

Jump’s recurring walks give Seattle a specific way to create the lead this bet needs. He has issued 8 walks over his last three starts, compared with 3 for Woo. Arozarena brings an .865 OPS against lefties, and Canzone has a particularly relevant matchup: a .464 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs across 123 plate appearances. Jump throws that pitch 48.0% of the time. My expectation is that Seattle can turn those extra baserunners into damage against a pitch its second hitter has handled well. Raleigh’s recent power adds weight to that expectation: 8 home runs over the last 15 days. His .566 season OPS against lefties is a substantial counterargument. I’m making a judgment that his current hitting carries into this matchup; I’m not treating his recent home-run pace as something guaranteed to continue. The bullpen usage also matters. Muñoz last threw 9 pitches Friday and Domínguez 13 Friday; both rested Saturday. The Athletics used Alvarado on consecutive days for 48 pitches, while Hartlieb also worked both days. That gives Seattle a favorable choice of late-inning arms if Woo delivers a lead. The Athletics still have credible alternatives: Harris rested Saturday, and Blewett and Medina last pitched Thursday. My case depends on the specific workload differences, rather than assuming their entire bullpen is spent. There are clear ways this loses. Jump allowed 2 earned runs with 9 strikeouts two starts ago, so an effective outing remains within his recent range. Woo has allowed a .720 OPS to left-handed hitters, and Walton’s .845 OPS against righties gives the Athletics a relevant threat. Seattle also has to convert opportunities; walks alone do not cover a run line. The assumptions carrying my decision are that Jump’s control trouble persists, Seattle’s favorable hitting matchups produce runs, and Muñoz and Domínguez are usable. Their recent workloads support that availability assumption. A confirmed restriction on that pair would materially weaken the bet and make me reassess it. At +114, the break-even requirement is below an even chance of covering. I judge these particular hitting matchups and bullpen options sufficient to clear that hurdle, with modest confidence.

Raleigh’s recent power adds weight to that expectation: 8 home runs over the last 15 days. His .566 season OPS against lefties is a substantial counterargument. I’m making a judgment that his current hitting carries into this matchup; I’m not treating his recent home-run pace as something guaranteed to continue.

The bullpen usage also matters. Muñoz last threw 9 pitches Friday and Domínguez 13 Friday; both rested Saturday. The Athletics used Alvarado on consecutive days for 48 pitches, while Hartlieb also worked both days. That gives Seattle a favorable choice of late-inning arms if Woo delivers a lead. The Athletics still have credible alternatives: Harris rested Saturday, and Blewett and Medina last pitched Thursday. My case depends on the specific workload differences, rather than assuming their entire bullpen is spent.

There are clear ways this loses. Jump allowed 2 earned runs with 9 strikeouts two starts ago, so an effective outing remains within his recent range. Woo has allowed a .720 OPS to left-handed hitters, and Walton’s .845 OPS against righties gives the Athletics a relevant threat. Seattle also has to convert opportunities; walks alone do not cover a run line.

The assumptions carrying my decision are that Jump’s control trouble persists, Seattle’s favorable hitting matchups produce runs, and Muñoz and Domínguez are usable. Their recent workloads support that availability assumption. A confirmed restriction on that pair would materially weaken the bet and make me reassess it.

At +114, the break-even requirement is below an even chance of covering. I judge these particular hitting matchups and bullpen options sufficient to clear that hurdle, with modest confidence.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Ole Miss Rebels· -104

Sunday night in Nashville brings two ranked teams to Nissan Stadium for a season opener on neutral ground. Louisville’s returning backfield is the foundation of this bet. Isaac Brown averaged 8.8 yards per carry last season, and Keyjuan Brown averaged 7.3. Against Toledo, that partnership supplied both explosive scoring and the closing runs that protected the win. Those performances matter here because Louisville has established offensive options around Lincoln Kienholz in his first career start. My expectation is that the backs generate enough productive early downs to keep him from having to rescue possessions throughout the game. The other piece is Clev Lubin against Ole Miss’s reconfigured offensive tackles. Lubin recorded 8.5 sacks last season, and the supplied game accounts describe how effective he became when coverage made the quarterback hold the ball. Louisville needs that combination again: coverage that gives its rush time, followed by disruption that ends possessions. I expect that matchup to produce enough stops to keep the running game relevant through the fourth quarter. Ole Miss has a clear answer. Kewan Lacy rushed for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, and his explosive scoring is a substantial threat to this ticket. If he keeps Ole Miss moving while Suntarine Perkins and Kam Franklin disrupt Louisville’s offense, the Cardinals could be forced to put too much on their new quarterback. Louisville’s late defensive breakdowns against Toledo also show why a competitive opening would settle nothing. My assumption is that Louisville’s changed offensive line can provide enough rushing room and protection for its returning backs to influence the whole game. Whether its new left-tackle and center configuration can withstand this front is the unresolved matchup question most capable of changing my view. I’m backing the Brown backfield and Lubin to keep Louisville inside this number; that supports taking the points rather than requiring an outright win.

Sunday night in Nashville brings two ranked teams to Nissan Stadium for a season opener on neutral ground.

Louisville’s returning backfield is the foundation of this bet. Isaac Brown averaged 8.8 yards per carry last season, and Keyjuan Brown averaged 7.3. Against Toledo, that partnership supplied both explosive scoring and the closing runs that protected the win. Those performances matter here because Louisville has established offensive options around Lincoln Kienholz in his first career start. My expectation is that the backs generate enough productive early downs to keep him from having to rescue possessions throughout the game.

The other piece is Clev Lubin against Ole Miss’s reconfigured offensive tackles. Lubin recorded 8.5 sacks last season, and the supplied game accounts describe how effective he became when coverage made the quarterback hold the ball. Louisville needs that combination again: coverage that gives its rush time, followed by disruption that ends possessions. I expect that matchup to produce enough stops to keep the running game relevant through the fourth quarter.

Ole Miss has a clear answer. Kewan Lacy rushed for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, and his explosive scoring is a substantial threat to this ticket. If he keeps Ole Miss moving while Suntarine Perkins and Kam Franklin disrupt Louisville’s offense, the Cardinals could be forced to put too much on their new quarterback. Louisville’s late defensive breakdowns against Toledo also show why a competitive opening would settle nothing.

My assumption is that Louisville’s changed offensive line can provide enough rushing room and protection for its returning backs to influence the whole game. Whether its new left-tackle and center configuration can withstand this front is the unresolved matchup question most capable of changing my view. I’m backing the Brown backfield and Lubin to keep Louisville inside this number; that supports taking the points rather than requiring an outright win.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish· -120

Sunday night at Lambeau Field, with Notre Dame opening as the designated home team and Wisconsin unveiling its rebuilt roster on a neutral field. Colton Joseph is the main reason I want the points. He rushed for 1,007 yards and 13 touchdowns at Old Dominion in 2025, and Wisconsin has explicitly kept designed quarterback runs and improvisation central to its plans. His mobility gives Notre Dame a containment problem alongside the conventional rushing options of Abu Sama III and Darrion Dupree. I expect that combination to extend possessions and give Wisconsin enough offensive answers to remain competitive through four quarters. The other matchup supporting this ticket is Wisconsin’s returning linebackers against Notre Dame’s reshaped offense. Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano provide continuity while the Irish introduce a first-time starter at left tackle, move other linemen and establish Aneyas Williams in the leading backfield role. My judgment is that Wisconsin can interrupt the Irish rushing rhythm often enough to prevent this becoming a procession of scoring drives. Notre Dame’s late-season blowouts also need context: the Syracuse game included two interception-return touchdowns and a blocked-punt return. That scoring sequence is a poor baseline for the offensive possessions required tonight. Notre Dame’s strongest covering path is substantial. CJ Carr threw 24 touchdown passes against six interceptions in 2025 and retains his connection with Jordan Faison. If the Irish establish their running game, Carr can challenge Wisconsin’s reconstructed secondary without carrying every possession himself. Their offensive dominance against Stanford also shows that last season’s success extended beyond return touchdowns. Wisconsin’s defensive changes leave a credible route for Notre Dame to sustain scoring throughout the game. The assumption behind my bet is that Joseph’s running ability translates well enough against this defense to produce sustained possessions. His Old Dominion production establishes the threat; tonight’s effectiveness remains a judgment. Wisconsin’s right-side blocking is the unresolved matchup that could change my view. If Notre Dame consistently penetrates and contains Joseph without pulling help from coverage, Wisconsin’s offensive answers narrow considerably. I’m backing those answers to hold up often enough to stay inside this spread.

Sunday night at Lambeau Field, with Notre Dame opening as the designated home team and Wisconsin unveiling its rebuilt roster on a neutral field.

Colton Joseph is the main reason I want the points. He rushed for 1,007 yards and 13 touchdowns at Old Dominion in 2025, and Wisconsin has explicitly kept designed quarterback runs and improvisation central to its plans. His mobility gives Notre Dame a containment problem alongside the conventional rushing options of Abu Sama III and Darrion Dupree. I expect that combination to extend possessions and give Wisconsin enough offensive answers to remain competitive through four quarters.

The other matchup supporting this ticket is Wisconsin’s returning linebackers against Notre Dame’s reshaped offense. Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano provide continuity while the Irish introduce a first-time starter at left tackle, move other linemen and establish Aneyas Williams in the leading backfield role. My judgment is that Wisconsin can interrupt the Irish rushing rhythm often enough to prevent this becoming a procession of scoring drives. Notre Dame’s late-season blowouts also need context: the Syracuse game included two interception-return touchdowns and a blocked-punt return. That scoring sequence is a poor baseline for the offensive possessions required tonight.

Notre Dame’s strongest covering path is substantial. CJ Carr threw 24 touchdown passes against six interceptions in 2025 and retains his connection with Jordan Faison. If the Irish establish their running game, Carr can challenge Wisconsin’s reconstructed secondary without carrying every possession himself. Their offensive dominance against Stanford also shows that last season’s success extended beyond return touchdowns. Wisconsin’s defensive changes leave a credible route for Notre Dame to sustain scoring throughout the game.

The assumption behind my bet is that Joseph’s running ability translates well enough against this defense to produce sustained possessions. His Old Dominion production establishes the threat; tonight’s effectiveness remains a judgment. Wisconsin’s right-side blocking is the unresolved matchup that could change my view. If Notre Dame consistently penetrates and contains Joseph without pulling help from coverage, Wisconsin’s offensive answers narrow considerably. I’m backing those answers to hold up often enough to stay inside this spread.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· +124

Ober gives Minnesota a credible way to keep Chicago’s power damage contained. He allowed two hits and one earned run over five innings in their latest meeting, and his last three starts produced a 2.51 ERA. Tonight’s White Sox nine is 11-for-58 this series. I expect Ober to limit the traffic around Chicago’s dangerous swings sufficiently to make Minnesota’s chances worth the underdog payout. Chicago then has to cover most of the game after Hudson’s expected one or two innings. Newcomb threw 24 pitches Saturday, which makes me reluctant to count on another substantial assignment from him. Taylor and Smith both last pitched Friday, so Chicago has strong options. My judgment is that their advantage does not extend across enough innings to justify this favorite’s price. Minnesota has current production from hitters who can help exploit those opportunities. Bell is 4-for-7 this series, Keaschall singled against both the starter and Newcomb yesterday, and Jeffers supplied the decisive homer. I give those contributions more weight than Minnesota’s recent scoring average, which gets a substantial lift from the 11-run and 15-run Detroit games. The assumption behind the pitching side of this bet is that Ober’s recent run prevention largely holds and Minnesota can get repeat work from its relief options. Gómez threw seven pitches Saturday and Funderburk 11; both have documented consecutive-day usage. Those workloads support that expectation, although their availability is not confirmed. The strongest threat is Chicago’s power against Ober’s contact profile. He has allowed a 10.2% barrel rate, and Chicago’s confirmed nine has five homers this series despite its limited overall hitting. That keeps my confidence modest. The unresolved fact most capable of changing my decision is Chicago’s pitching assignment after Hudson: a confirmed plan giving Taylor and Smith extended work could materially strengthen the favorite’s case.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· -122

Alvarez gives Washington a credible route to keeping this game close against tonight’s particular Dodgers lineup. He has allowed four earned runs across his last three starts, but the matchup matters more than that headline: Smith has a .399 OPS against lefties in 50 at-bats, and Freeman’s .741 against lefties falls below his .889 against righties. Teoscar Hernández remains a substantial threat, with an .841 OPS against lefties and strong recent hitting. Still, this lineup gives Alvarez opportunities to contain the damage. Washington has specific ways to pressure Wrobleski. House owns a .961 OPS against lefties in 82 at-bats, Crews .829 in 103, and Wood .841 in 165. Wrobleski’s recent starts have repeatedly featured home-run damage, and his September 1 relief appearance produced two earned runs over two innings on 36 pitches. Those results do not guarantee another rough outing, but they make Washington’s favorable batting splits relevant to this assignment. The bullpen is the strongest argument against my bet. Beeter threw 23 pitches yesterday, and Sinclair has thrown 40 across consecutive days. Ribalta last pitched September 1, using eight pitches, giving Washington another potential late option. Los Angeles also has answers behind its starter: Miller is a reported option for roughly 50 pitches, and Phillips needed only nine yesterday. Washington needs to enter those innings in a useful position; its relief staff could still surrender the cushion. My judgment is that Alvarez’s matchup and Washington’s opportunities against Wrobleski make the extra run and a half worth buying. I expect the Dodgers’ difficulty creating separation to matter more often than Washington’s bullpen problems produce a multi-run loss. That is the assumption carrying the bet—not something the recent results establish. I’m also assuming Ribalta is available for meaningful late work. A confirmed restriction on him would make me reconsider, because yesterday’s Washington relievers already have documented work behind them. This recommendation is tied to the quoted -122; the later -125 listing offers less value.

Washington has specific ways to pressure Wrobleski. House owns a .961 OPS against lefties in 82 at-bats, Crews .829 in 103, and Wood .841 in 165. Wrobleski’s recent starts have repeatedly featured home-run damage, and his September 1 relief appearance produced two earned runs over two innings on 36 pitches. Those results do not guarantee another rough outing, but they make Washington’s favorable batting splits relevant to this assignment.

The bullpen is the strongest argument against my bet. Beeter threw 23 pitches yesterday, and Sinclair has thrown 40 across consecutive days. Ribalta last pitched September 1, using eight pitches, giving Washington another potential late option. Los Angeles also has answers behind its starter: Miller is a reported option for roughly 50 pitches, and Phillips needed only nine yesterday. Washington needs to enter those innings in a useful position; its relief staff could still surrender the cushion.

My judgment is that Alvarez’s matchup and Washington’s opportunities against Wrobleski make the extra run and a half worth buying. I expect the Dodgers’ difficulty creating separation to matter more often than Washington’s bullpen problems produce a multi-run loss. That is the assumption carrying the bet—not something the recent results establish.

I’m also assuming Ribalta is available for meaningful late work. A confirmed restriction on him would make me reconsider, because yesterday’s Washington relievers already have documented work behind them. This recommendation is tied to the quoted -122; the later -125 listing offers less value.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

BO NAYLORH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -135

I’m betting on limited production and limited opportunity. Naylor is batting eighth, averages only 3.3 plate appearances per game and has produced 0.9 combined hits, runs and RBIs per game this season. Ten of his last 15 results were zero, and 11 stayed below this line. Singer’s struggles against left-handed bats are the danger, especially with Naylor owning five hits and a homer in 12 career at-bats against him. One big swing can beat an under like this. But Naylor’s .438 season OPS and low lineup position make two contributions less likely than this price implies.

THE LONG SHOT

SAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +440

Stewart is my home-run swing because the price matches the matchup. He has 31 homers this season, including eight in 130 at-bats against left-handed pitching, and carries an .888 OPS in that split. He has also gone deep four times in his last 15 games. Harrison has allowed 18 of his 19 home runs to right-handed hitters, and righties hit all five against him in his last start. Stewart gets a premium lineup spot in a home-run-friendly park, so he should have multiple chances to attack Harrison’s four-seamer. Harrison’s season-long fastball and slurve results remain strong, but +440 pays me to accept the volatility.

GARY'S PICK

HECTOR RODRIGUEZH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -134

Rodriguez has cleared this line in 12 of his last 15 games, and one hit is enough. He has also shown legitimate damage potential with five homers in 82 at-bats, while batting ahead of Dane Myers, Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart gives him a strong chance to score whenever he reaches. The left-on-left matchup is the clear concern: Rodriguez has a .368 OPS against lefties, and Harrison has held left-handed hitters to a .599 OPS. I’m still taking the over because Harrison has recorded 15 outs or fewer in each of his last eight starts, creating a likely path to later plate appearances against right-handed relief. Rodriguez owns an .884 OPS against righties.

GARY'S PICK

AARON NOLAPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -160

Nola has allowed five or more hits in seven of his last eight starts, including all three outings in which he posted a 2.00 ERA. That distinction matters: Atlanta does not need to chase him from the game or score heavily. It only needs five hits while he works through the order. Acuña is 5-for-9 in this series and 18-for-54 against Nola, while Baldwin is 3-for-9 in the series and 3-for-5 in the matchup. Nola’s four-seam fastball and sinker have each allowed batting averages above .330, giving Atlanta hittable alternatives if it can avoid expanding against his knuckle curve. The price is substantial, but the low line and Nola’s consistent workload still make the over playable.

GARY'S PICK

SEAN MURPHYH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -152

Murphy has cleared this in 10 of his last 15 games, batting .385 with a 1.308 OPS during that stretch. One hit gets us home, but his power and Atlanta’s stronger hitters turning the lineup over give him multiple paths through a run or RBI as well. Nola has allowed an .815 OPS to right-handed hitters and at least five hits in seven of his last eight starts. His improved recent results deserve respect, but they have not stopped opponents from reaching this modest hit threshold. Murphy batting seventh limits his volume, which keeps my confidence measured at this price.

THE LONG SHOT

MICHAEL HARRIS IIHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +450

This is my long shot. Harris has homered four times in his last 15 games and owns 16 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. He also has three career homers in 29 at-bats against Nola, so there is specific history behind the matchup rather than price alone. Nola has surrendered 32 home runs in 28 starts and allowed at least one in seven of his last eight outings. Citizens Bank Park rewards pulled power, and the wind coming in from left is less concerning for a left-handed hitter capable of driving the ball toward right field. Harris is hitless in the series, but his recent power and the +450 return are enough for me to take the swing.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON JOBEPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -154

Jobe has stayed under this number in four of his five starts, recording 15 or fewer outs each time except for one 5⅓-inning outing. His 1.46 WHIP and 10 walks through 23⅓ innings create the long plate appearances that can push his pitch count up before the sixth inning is complete. He needed 92 pitches to get 15 outs in his latest start. Cleveland can stack eight hitters who bat left-handed against him, and Jobe has generated only a 14.8% whiff rate with the four-seamer he throws most often. Detroit also activated Brant Hurter, giving the club a fresh length option behind him. The risk is that Jobe finds early-count outs against a lineup averaging only four runs per game, but I expect traffic and pitch count to keep him from finishing six.

GARY'S PICK

RILEY GREENEH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -164

Greene has cleared this in 13 of his last 15 games, and this market gives me three ways to win with Detroit's best hitter batting cleanup. He returned from the injured list this week and produced four hits, three runs and four RBIs Saturday, so I am betting on the lineup position and opportunity rather than requiring another power display. Gavin Williams is a difficult assignment. He has limited left-handed hitters to a .188 average and .597 OPS, and his sweeper, four-seamer and curveball have all missed bats. That matchup keeps my conviction measured at this price. Still, Greene should receive around four plate appearances, and one hit, one run after reaching base or one RBI is enough.

THE LONG SHOT

NATHANIEL LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +820

This is my long shot. Lowe owns all 15 of his home runs against right-handed pitching and a .834 OPS in that split, and he is batting cleanup against Jobe. Jobe's four-seamer has allowed a .464 xwOBA with only a 14.8% whiff rate, and he has surrendered four home runs across five starts. If he challenges Lowe with that pitch, the matchup offers real damage potential. Lowe has only one homer in his last 15 games, while the 14 mph wind blowing in from right field works against left-handed power. Those are meaningful drawbacks, but +820 pays for them. I am taking the price on Lowe's platoon power and prime lineup position.

GARY'S PICK

PAYTON TOLLEK'S UNDER 7.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -136

Tolle has stayed below eight strikeouts in six of his last eight starts and has not reached eight in any of his last four. His season average is 6.4, and Boston has managed his growing workload without letting him regularly work deep enough to pile up this number. Baltimore has swing-and-miss bats, but the lineup also has Alexander and Henderson making productive plate appearances at the top, while Alonso can force careful sequences. I see Tolle recording useful outs without needing eight strikeouts to control the game.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE BRADISHPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -168

Bradish has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight starts, including each of his last four, and his season average sits at 2.4 per start. Boston can make him work: Anthony, Gasper, Rutschman and Sogard all carry strong walk rates, with three of them able to hit left-handed against a pitcher who has struggled more with lefties. Bradish has needed at least 91 pitches while completing no more than 5.2 innings in each of his last five starts. I expect Boston's patient top half to draw the two walks before his day ends. The price is steep, so this is a measured play rather than one I would chase any higher.

THE LONG SHOT

MICKEY GASPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +750

Gasper's power against right-handed pitching makes this the long shot I want. All eight of his home runs have come against righties, he owns a .986 OPS in that split, and he has homered in five of his last 15 games. Batting second should give him four chances, likely from the left side, against a starter allowing a .788 OPS to left-handed hitters. Bradish's four-seam fastball has produced a .368 xwOBA, and Gasper has been punishing mistakes for several weeks. Home runs remain volatile, but +750 is enough return for this matchup and Gasper's current power.

GARY'S PICK

CLAY HOLMESPITCHER WALKS UNDER 2.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -164

Holmes has issued two or fewer walks in seven consecutive starts, and he has reached three only once in his last eight. His improved swing-and-miss numbers also matter: the cutter, changeup and sweeper can finish plate appearances without forcing him to live exclusively on the edges. Miami starts six left-handed hitters, but Holmes has held lefties to a .589 OPS. The Marlins draw 3.45 walks per game as a team, so the price is not risk-free, especially with Stowers and Conine at the top. Still, this ticket gives Holmes room for two walks, matching his total in each of his last three starts. I trust his current command enough to lay the price.

GARY'S PICK

TYLER PHILLIPSPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -150

Phillips has stayed under this number in seven of his last eight starts, including five scoreless innings his last time out. His workload is part of the appeal: he has completed more than 5⅓ innings only once in 16 starts, limiting the amount of exposure this bet has to cover. Chicago presents real danger. Phillips has surrendered 12 home runs in 16 starts, and his sinker and four-seamer are the vulnerable parts of the arsenal. But his sweeper and splitter have produced strong swing-and-miss results, giving him a path through a powerful lineup without needing to challenge every hitter with a fastball. I expect Miami to remove him around the fifth inning, and I make zero, one or two earned runs more likely than three before that hook arrives.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +340

Crow-Armstrong is my home-run shot because the price does not fully reflect his current power or his opportunity from the leadoff spot. He has gone deep five times in his last 15 games and owns 39 home runs for the season. Batting first should also give him the best chance on the board to receive a fourth or fifth plate appearance. The matchup offers a specific route to damage. Phillips has allowed 12 homers in 16 starts and surrendered one in five of his last six outings before his scoreless start in Kansas City. His sinker has allowed a .361 expected wOBA, while his four-seamer sits at .424, and Crow-Armstrong has hit .361 against sinkers. Phillips can neutralize him with the sweeper and splitter, but at +340 I am willing to bet Crow-Armstrong gets one hittable fastball and drives it.

GARY'S PICK

WALBERT URENAPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -160

Urena has allowed fewer than three earned runs in five of his last eight starts and averages 1.7 earned runs per start this season. His changeup and sweeper have held opponents to a .238 and .173 xwOBA, respectively, while his platoon numbers remain strong against both sides of the plate. Pittsburgh has scored 2.7 runs per game across its last 10 when its 13-run outburst is removed, and PNC Park with the wind coming in offers another layer of protection. The danger is Urena's 3.71 road ERA and a Pirates lineup capable of drawing walks, but his contact suppression and recent seven-inning, one-run start make the under worth the heavy price.

GARY'S PICK

WADE MECKLERTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -130

I only need one single from a hitter batting third who owns a .313 average against right-handers and has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games. Meckler also has three hits in this series, including two doubles yesterday. Skenes throws his four-seamer 40.6% of the time, and Meckler has hit .367 against that pitch across 95 plate appearances. Skenes can dominate this lineup, but he allowed six hits in 13 at-bats to left-handed hitters in his latest start. At this number, Meckler's contact profile gives me enough paths to one base.

THE LONG SHOT

BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +650

Lowe's 29 home runs and .888 OPS against right-handed pitching make him the best combination of power and price on this board. Twenty-three of those homers have come against righties, and batting second should give him every reasonable chance at four trips to the plate. Urena has suppressed barrels and home runs, particularly with his changeup, so this is not a comfortable matchup. The opening comes against his four-seamer, which has allowed a .357 xwOBA, and Lowe is the Pittsburgh hitter most capable of turning one elevated fastball into damage. At +650, the payout adequately compensates me for the difficult matchup and pitcher-friendly park.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN SCOTTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Mets· -133

Scott has issued 11 walks over 16.1 innings in his last three starts, clearing this number in five of his last eight. The Giants can make him work: Bryce Eldridge has 54 walks and a .360 on-base percentage, while Rafael Devers has drawn 66 walks. With six left-handed bats in the lineup, Scott cannot simply lean on his sweeper against everyone. Eight days of rest could sharpen his command, but two walks remains a low threshold for a pitcher whose control has been the weak point of his recent form.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE ELDRIDGEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· -140

Eldridge has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 15 games and is batting .356 over that stretch. He has also doubled in both games of this series, showing that his contact is carrying against New York pitching. Batting third should give him four trips to find one hit, and Scott's recent command trouble can push him into more favorable counts. Scott has limited left-handed hitters to a .229 average, so the matchup is not soft, but Eldridge's form and volume justify the price.

THE LONG SHOT

MARK VIENTOSHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +525

Vientos is the right-handed bat I want against Perdomo. He owns a .917 OPS with eight home runs in 96 at-bats against left-handed pitching, and he has homered in five of his last 15 games. Perdomo used his four-seam fastball more than half the time in his debut, and that pitch allowed a .524 expected weighted on-base average in a very small sample. Citi Field and the wind coming in reduce the margin for error, but Vientos has the platoon power to beat those conditions, and +525 pays for the uncertainty surrounding a first-time starter.

GARY'S PICK

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -130

Rodriguez has stayed below three earned runs in six of his last eight starts, and his 2.59 ERA is backed by limited hard contact. Houston is less dangerous against left-handed pitching, owns a .706 OPS in that split and is sitting Yainer Diaz after his productive first two games of the series. Seven right-handed starters do not scare me here: righties have managed a .227 average and .668 OPS against Rodriguez. His elevated first-inning ERA is the main concern, but I expect his changeup to control this lineup once he settles in.

GARY'S PICK

JAMES MCCANNH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -171

McCann has recorded at least one hit, run or RBI in 11 of his last 15 games. He has also done his best work against right-handed pitching, batting .313 with an .879 OPS in that split. Lambert has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .270, and his 10 walks over his last three starts create additional ways for McCann to score even if he does not produce the hit himself. Batting seventh limits the volume, but one productive plate appearance is enough.

THE LONG SHOT

JAMES MCCANNHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +750

McCann has hit all five of his home runs this season against right-handed pitching, including one in his most recent start. Lambert has been much more vulnerable to right-handed bats than left-handed bats, and his cutter has produced a .376 expected weighted on-base average with a low whiff rate. McCann does not need to dominate the matchup at this number. He needs one mistake, and the short left-field porch gives a pulled fly ball a chance to carry.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON VALENZUELAH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -134

Valenzuela is batting ninth and has failed to record a hit in three straight games. More importantly for this combined market, he has gone 15 games without an RBI and averages only 3.5 plate appearances per game. Dobnak has allowed a modest .720 OPS to left-handed hitters with a 4.9% barrel rate overall, so this is not an ideal matchup for counting on extra-base damage. Valenzuela can cash the under even with one productive trip to the plate; Toronto likely needs to turn the lineup over and involve him multiple times for the over to land.

GARY'S PICK

VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.H+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -145

Guerrero has stayed below three combined hits, runs and RBIs in 11 of his last 15 games, and his season average is 1.9. His production against right-handed pitching has been ordinary at a .658 OPS, while Dobnak has allowed a .669 OPS and only one home run to right-handed hitters. Batting third gives Guerrero opportunities, but clearing this number usually requires either a multi-hit game with additional production or a major extra-base hit. Toronto's left-handed bats are better positioned to attack Dobnak, leaving this price playable on Guerrero staying under.

THE LONG SHOT

JOHN RAVEHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +700

This is a price play on the leadoff hitter with the clearest route into Arrighetti's weakness. Left-handed hitters have produced an .803 OPS and 11 home runs against Arrighetti, whose four-seam fastball and sinker have allowed a .408 and .432 expected wOBA. Rave has four homers in only 89 at-bats and went deep off Scherzer yesterday, so the power is real enough to consider at 7-to-1. Kauffman Stadium and the wind coming in keep my conviction measured, but Rave's likely four or five plate appearances make him my choice from the long-shot board.

GARY'S PICK

IAN SEYMOURK'S OVER 5.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -130

I’m riding Seymour’s swing-and-miss arsenal against a Texas lineup that strikes out in roughly 23% of its plate appearances. He has reached at least seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts, and his changeup carries a 41.4% whiff rate with a 47.7% chase rate. That pitch gives him a real finishing weapon against the Rangers’ seven right-handed hitters. The risk is an early exit if Texas elevates his fastball, but six strikeouts is reachable without requiring a full six innings.

GARY'S PICK

IAN SEYMOURPITCHER WALKS UNDER 1.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -148

Seymour has issued only two walks across his last three starts and averages 0.9 per start this season. His changeup generates chase, and Texas’ aggressive, right-handed-heavy order gives him a path to outs without repeatedly working deep counts. The price is substantial, but I make zero or one walk more likely than the market does. Texas’ success against lefties is the danger because traffic could force Seymour to pitch cautiously, but his recent command supports the under.

THE LONG SHOT

JUSTIN FOSCUEHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +575

Foscue is my long-shot swing because his power has been concentrated against left-handed pitching: eight of his 11 home runs have come in 119 at-bats against lefties, alongside a 1.013 OPS. He is batting third, has homered four times in his last 15 games and has reached safely with three hits in six at-bats during this series. Seymour has allowed 15 home runs in 12 starts, so there is a path if Foscue gets a fastball or sinker in the air. Seymour’s changeup and strong work against right-handed hitters make this a volatile bet, but +575 compensates me for that risk.

GARY'S PICK

BRYAN TORRESHITS UNDER 1.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -160

Torres has finished below two hits in 13 of his last 15 games and averages only 0.6 hits per game this season. Batting first gives him opportunities, but producing multiple hits remains a high bar for a part-time bat. Gordon has also allowed just nine hits across his last two starts. Coors is the obvious risk, but I’m backing Torres to finish with zero or one hit.

GARY'S PICK

TANNER GORDONPITCHER WALKS OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -148

I only need one free pass from Gordon. He averages one walk per start, and St. Louis puts Bryan Torres and Iván Herrera—two hitters willing to work counts—at the top of the order. Gordon does not generate many chases with his four-seamer or slider, so there should be at least one plate appearance where he has to work away from contact. One walk is enough.

THE LONG SHOT

LEO BERNALHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +543

Bernal will bat from the left side against Gordon, whose left-handed opponents have produced an .884 OPS with 12 home runs in 209 at-bats. Gordon has allowed eight homers in eight starts and owns a 7.26 ERA at Coors Field. Bernal’s major-league sample is small, but he has already shown extra-base power and hits fifth, giving him a strong lineup position for this price. At +543, this is the long shot I want.

THE LONG SHOT

LUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +550

Garcia has done nearly all of his home-run damage in this matchup split, hitting 25 of his 28 homers against right-handed pitching. He is batting third, has gone deep four times in his last 15 games and should receive four chances unless King dominates the order. King has allowed 18 home runs in 28 starts, including 12 to left-handed hitters. Petco and the wind keep this firmly in long-shot territory, but Garcia’s power profile gives me enough probability to take the +550 rather than pay the shorter prices elsewhere on the board.

GARY'S PICK

DUSTIN HARRISH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -138

Harris has hit .421 with a .924 OPS over the last 15 days, and this combination gives me three ways to cash without requiring extra-base damage. A single settles it immediately, while his speed creates another route through a walk and a run. Cole is a difficult matchup, particularly for left-handed hitters, but Harris has earned this start with consistently strong contact. At this price, I’m backing him to contribute once from the seventh spot.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL KINGPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -197

King has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight starts and averages 2.3 per start this season. He has also completed six innings in seven of those eight outings, giving this over enough time to develop. The Yankees’ lineup draws a walk in roughly nine percent of its plate appearances and presents seven left-handed hitters. King can miss bats with his changeup and sweeper, but navigating that many opposite-handed matchups should create enough deep counts for two free passes.

GARY'S PICK

GAGE JUMPPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -156

I need only two earned runs against a starter who has allowed at least two in seven of his last eight outings and 14 across his last 14 2/3 innings. Jump has also walked eight batters over his last three starts, creating traffic for a Seattle lineup with Arozarena carrying an .865 OPS against lefties. Jump has allowed a .784 OPS to right-handed hitters, and five righties are in Seattle's lineup. The price is heavy, and Seattle's .628 team OPS against lefties plus the pitcher-friendly park keep my confidence modest, but Jump's recent control and run-prevention profile support the over.

GARY'S PICK

JHONNY PEREDAH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -167

Pereda can clear this with one hit, run or RBI, and he has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 15 games. He owns a .291 average overall and has hit .333 with a .916 OPS against lefties, albeit in only 21 at-bats. That fits against Jump, who has allowed right-handed hitters a .265 average and .784 OPS. Batting ninth limits Pereda's plate appearances and makes -167 expensive, but the multiple paths to cashing and Jump's recent vulnerability are enough for me to lay the price.

THE LONG SHOT

ZACK GELOFHR OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +600

Gelof has homered three times in his last four games and is batting third, giving him the strongest combination of current power and expected plate appearances on this board. Twelve of his 17 home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and Woo throws his four-seam fastball nearly half the time with a .353 xwOBA allowed on that pitch. Woo has been much tougher on right-handed hitters overall, and T-Mobile Park suppresses power, so this is strictly a price play. At +600, Gelof's recent contact and season-long power give me enough upside to take one swing.

GARY'S PICK

KAELEN CULPEPPERHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -150

Culpepper has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 15 games, owns a .307 season average and is batting .323 against left-handers. He added a single and a double Saturday, giving him three hits in this series. Batting eighth could cost him a plate appearance, but Hudson is only opening and Culpepper should get multiple chances against Chicago's relief mix. I prefer this price to his identical 0.5 total-bases threshold.

THE LONG SHOT

BROOKS LEEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +600

I want the biggest price with a credible combination of power and opportunity. Lee has 22 homers this season, four in his last 15 games and the second lineup spot should provide four or five trips. His weaker numbers against left-handers are less concerning in a bullpen game where Hudson may face him only once. Lee is just 1-for-8 in the series, but at +600 I am betting on his recent power resurfacing in a favorable home-run park.

GARY'S PICK

WALKER JENKINSH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -170

Jenkins has cleared this in four of his first seven games even though he has only three hits. His five walks matter because reaching base ahead of Keaschall and Lee gives him another route through a run scored. The left-on-left opening matchup and the ninth spot make the price uncomfortable, but Hudson should work briefly, leaving Jenkins several opportunities against a bullpen covering nearly the entire game.

GARY'S PICK

JACOB YOUNGH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -140

Young needs only one hit, run or RBI, and this is a favorable spot against a left-hander. He owns an .838 OPS against lefties and has cleared this line in eight of his last 15 games. Wrobleski has allowed at least four hits in every one of his last eight starts, and his expected workload restriction creates another path into the bullpen. Batting eighth limits Young's opportunities, but -140 is playable for three ways to cash.

GARY'S PICK

MOOKIE BETTSWALKS UNDER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -158

Betts has gone without a walk in 10 of his last 15 games and averages only 0.3 walks per game this season. He has also failed to draw one in either game of this series. Alvarez's 41 walks in 90.2 innings and Washington's vulnerable bullpen keep this from being a stronger position, but Betts still has to reach by walk at least once for the over to cash. I make the no-walk outcome more likely than the price implies.

THE LONG SHOT

HARRY FORDHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +900

This is strictly a price play on Ford's right-handed power against Wrobleski. Ford has a .766 OPS against lefties, while Wrobleski has surrendered 19 home runs in 20 starts and repeatedly allowed right-handed hitters to take him deep during his recent struggles. Ford's seventh-place lineup spot and the nighttime conditions at Dodger Stadium are real drawbacks, but +900 gives me enough compensation to take the long shot.

Hub research

187

THE SWEATWIS @ ND
THE NUMBER
Wisconsin Badgers +21.5 -120
THE SWEATLOU @ MISS
THE NUMBER
Louisville Cardinals +6.5 -104
THE SWEATWSU @ WASH
THE NUMBER
Washington Huskies -23.5 -110
PLATOON EDGESF @ NYM
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Christian Scott (RHP), batting 1st
Gilbert gets the side that makes him dangerous, and leading off gives him maximum chances to apply pressure. Scott has to solve him immediately.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTWSU @ WASH
Jordan Washington (RB) is out for WASH
Washington’s remaining backs absorb the carries and pass-protection work, putting more pressure on the rotation to cover a full game. OUT this close to kickoff means the offensive plan is already built without him.
REPLACEMENTWIS @ ND
Quincy Porter (WR) is out for ND
Notre Dame’s remaining receivers take on his routes and snaps, with the offense leaning deeper into its available rotation. OUT this close to kickoff removes any game-time uncertainty and lets Wisconsin prepare for a receiver group without him.
PACE & SCRIPTWSU @ WASH
WSU @ WASH carries a 34.5 market total
The market is pricing long empty stretches, with points expected to come slowly rather than in bunches. That breaks if early scores force both sides to open things up and turnovers create short fields.
REPLACEMENTLOU @ MISS
Montavin Quisenberry (WR) is out for LOU
Louisville’s other receivers must absorb his routes and targets, further thinning the group against Ole Miss. OUT this close to kickoff means he is not part of the offensive plan tonight.
REPLACEMENTLOU @ MISS
Kris Hughes (WR) is out for the season for LOU
Louisville’s available receivers have to cover his routes and snaps for the long haul, so this is a season-wide depth issue rather than a late adjustment. OUT FOR SEASON means the offense has fully moved on to its remaining rotation.
HEAT CHECKOAK @ SEA
Cal Raleigh: 1.339 OPS in Last 15 Days
Cal Raleigh’s 1.339 OPS is sustained enough that I’m respecting the heater, even if this is not his new baseline. His power puts over 1.5 total bases firmly in play tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Coby Mayo gets his best platoon look and a premium lineup spot against Tolle. Batting third gives him every chance to turn that edge into damage.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TEAM RECORDBOS @ BAL
Red Sox 7-1 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts
Boston’s 7-1 record in Payton Tolle’s last eight starts reflects a team that consistently plays complete baseball behind him. I like the Red Sox’s setup tonight in Baltimore.
REPLACEMENTWIS @ ND
Matty Augustine (OL) is out for ND
Notre Dame’s offensive line depth has to supply the replacement snaps, with the rest of the unit responsible for keeping the protection connected. OUT this close to kickoff means the Irish are entering the game with their alternate plan already in place.
REPLACEMENTWIS @ ND
Christopher Burgess Jr. (DL) is out for ND
Notre Dame’s remaining defensive linemen absorb his snaps, asking more from the rotation against Wisconsin’s offense. OUT this close to kickoff means there is no late decision coming and the defensive front is set without him.
REPLACEMENTWIS @ ND
Tiki Hola (DL) is out for ND
Notre Dame ruled him out against Wisconsin with a right knee injury. Per Joshua Vowles, One Foot Down, Sep 5.
REPLACEMENTWSU @ WASH
Landen Hatchett (OL) is out for WASH
Washington will turn to its next available lineman, and the offensive front must redistribute the protection and blocking responsibilities around that replacement. OUT this close to kickoff means the Huskies have already settled on a different line combination.
HEAD-TO-HEADDET @ CLE
Guardians are 9-3 vs Tigers this season
Cleveland’s 9-3 advantage over Detroit is established, but the Tigers’ latest shutout win weakens its immediate force. I lean Guardians, though the season series alone does not settle tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADATL @ PHI
Braves are 8-2 vs Phillies this season
Atlanta’s 8-2 season-series edge matters, but Philadelphia’s latest win keeps me from treating it as automatic. It supports the Braves tonight without being enough to make the bet by itself.
REPLACEMENTLOU @ MISS
Anwar O'Neal (OL) is out for LOU
Louisville’s next available lineman has to step into the rotation, putting the strain on the offense’s blocking and protection. OUT this close to kickoff means Ole Miss can prepare for a Louisville front that will not have him.
TEAM RECORDSTL @ COL
Rockies 1-7 in Tanner Gordon's last 8 starts
A 1-7 record in Tanner Gordon’s last eight starts is a pattern I cannot ignore. Colorado once again looks vulnerable against St. Louis tonight.
TEAM RECORDMIN @ CHW
White Sox 7-1 in Bryan Hudson's last 8 starts
Chicago keeps finding ways to win behind Bryan Hudson, going 7-1 across his last eight starts. That makes the White Sox a live side against Minnesota tonight.
BULLPENMIN @ CHW
Minnesota Twins pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Minnesota’s bullpen has covered 15 innings in three games, leaving several important arms limited. If the Twins need relief early again, Chicago should have an opening in the middle innings.
PLATOON EDGECHC @ MIA
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 2nd against Clay Holmes (RHP)
Conine’s strength against right-handers fits perfectly in the two-hole. He can build on early traffic or create an immediate opportunity for Miami’s run producers.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
THE SWEATWSU @ WASH
AIR
Washington Huskies -23.5 -110
TEAM RECORDWSH @ LAD
Dodgers 1-6 in Justin Wrobleski's last 7 starts
The Dodgers are 1-6 in Justin Wrobleski’s last seven starts and have lost the last five. Washington is catching Los Angeles in a recurring trouble spot tonight.
PLATOON EDGETB @ TEX
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Foscue gets his preferred matchup in one of Texas’ best run-producing positions. Batting third gives him repeated chances to attack Seymour with runners available.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
THE SWEATWIS @ ND
BALL SECURITY
Wisconsin Badgers +21.5 -120
THE SWEATWIS @ ND
AIR
Wisconsin Badgers +21.5 -120
THE SWEATWIS @ ND
GROUND
Wisconsin Badgers +21.5 -120
THE SWEATLOU @ MISS
AIR
Louisville Cardinals +6.5 -104
THE SWEATLOU @ MISS
GROUND
Louisville Cardinals +6.5 -104
THE SWEATWSU @ WASH
GROUND
Washington Huskies -23.5 -110
HEAD-TO-HEADMIL @ CIN
Brewers are 9-4 vs Reds this season
Milwaukee’s 9-4 season edge over Cincinnati gives the Brewers some support, but the Reds won the latest meeting and are home tonight. I see a lean, not a standalone reason to bet Milwaukee.
REPLACEMENTLOU @ MISS
Jacob Baker (P) is out for the season for LOU
He is listed as out for the season, with no injury details reported. Per DRatings, Sep 6.
REPLACEMENTWSU @ WASH
CJ Christian (S) is out for WASH
Christian was ruled out of the Apple Cup while recovering from an Achilles tear suffered during spring practice. Per UW Dawg Pound, Peter Kehoe, Sep 2.
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ LAD
Dodgers are 5-0 vs Nationals this season
The Dodgers have finished the job in all five meetings with Washington this season. The latest one-run result suggests consistent execution more than overwhelming separation, but 5-0 still carries weight tonight.
HEAT CHECKSF @ NYM
Rafael Devers: 1.318 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rafael Devers is in legitimate top-end form, and his season-long power makes the 1.318 OPS surge believable. I would rather back over 1.5 total bases than bet on tonight’s pitching completely containing him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEDET @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Jackson Jobe (RHP), batting 4th
Nathaniel Lowe gets the right-handed matchup that brings out his better offensive side. Hitting cleanup gives him a strong chance to cash in when Cleveland creates traffic.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
STREAKOAK @ SEA
OAK games have gone OVER 6 straight
Oakland’s six-game over streak has come through decisive scoring, not narrow escapes. With Seattle carrying its own over run and tonight’s total unusually low, the matchup fits what both teams have been producing.
P final total 2 vs 5.5
HEAT CHECKWSH @ LAD
Daylen Lile: 1.257 OPS in Last 15 Days
Daylen Lile’s 1.257 OPS reflects real current form, though the jump from his season baseline should eventually cool. He enters Los Angeles seeing the ball well enough to remain dangerous tonight.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
BULLPENSTL @ COL
Colorado Rockies pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Colorado’s bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings in three games, and Romano and Bernardino look especially compromised. St. Louis should press early before the Rockies can piece together the late innings.
HEAT CHECKCHC @ MIA
Alex Bregman: 1.166 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman’s 1.166 OPS has held long enough to trust as genuine form. Against Miami, one extra-base hit gives him a clean route over 1.5 total bases.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ KC
Carter Jensen: 1.230 OPS in Last 15 Days
Carter Jensen’s surge is too sustained to dismiss, even if 1.230 OPS is well above his established level. At 1.5 total bases, one ball into the gap or over the fence can get him there tonight.
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ BAL
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (bats R) hits 4th against Payton Tolle (LHP)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand gets Tolle from his stronger platoon side while batting cleanup. That combination puts him in the right spot to do real damage.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ COL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Tanner Gordon (RHP)
Burleson’s strength against right-handers makes him a natural fit in the three-hole. He is positioned to extend innings or bring home anyone Gordon allows aboard.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
COOLING OFFMIN @ CHW
Munetaka Murakami: .394 OPS in Last 15 Days
Munetaka Murakami’s .394 OPS over 50 plate appearances is a real slump, but it should also pull his price down. I see a dangerous buy-low rebound spot against Chicago tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ KC
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 4th against Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Sanchez gets the handedness he wants in the lineup’s main finishing spot. Any traffic Dobnak creates ahead of him could quickly become damage.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
COOLING OFFWSH @ LAD
CJ Abrams: .307 OPS in Last 15 Days
CJ Abrams’ .307 OPS over his last 40 plate appearances points to a genuine timing problem. A trip to Los Angeles is not the spot where I want to pay for his season-long reputation.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDTB @ TEX
Rangers 6-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 8 starts
Texas has repeatedly turned Gore’s assignments into team wins. The Rangers bring that dependable 6-2 setup into tonight’s matchup.
PLATOON EDGEATL @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper gets the right-handed look that best unlocks his bat. From the third spot, he is positioned to make that platoon advantage count.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDMIL @ CIN
Reds 2-6 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
Cincinnati is 2-6 in Brady Singer’s last eight starts and has shown no recent answer to the pattern. That gives Milwaukee another meaningful edge tonight.
TEAM RECORDARI @ HOU
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 8 starts
Arizona has gone 6-2 in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last eight starts, consistently giving him a winning team foundation. The Diamondbacks carry that confidence into Houston tonight.
TEAM RECORDWSH @ LAD
Nationals 2-6 in Andrew Alvarez's last 8 starts
Washington has struggled to assemble winning nights around Alvarez, going 2-6 across his last eight starts. Facing Los Angeles makes this another demanding spot.
BULLPENMIL @ CIN
Cincinnati Reds pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cincinnati’s bullpen has logged 13.7 innings in three games, with Antone and Garcia likely unavailable. Milwaukee should challenge this worn group early and force the Reds into uncomfortable relief choices.
COOLING OFFATL @ PHI
Matt Olson: .478 OPS in Last 15 Days
Matt Olson’s .478 OPS has lasted long enough to be more than a few unlucky games. Philadelphia is a difficult place to assume the correction begins, so I’m staying away from his bat tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKBOS @ BAL
Mickey Gasper: 1.446 OPS in Last 15 Days
Mickey Gasper’s 1.446 OPS is an explosive heater, although the smaller sample keeps me from calling it a new profile. With his total-bases line at 0.5, one clean hit is enough for the over.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMARI @ HOU
Peter Lambert: 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts
Peter Lambert’s 8.36 ERA across his last three starts reflects too much traffic and damage before he can settle in. Arizona should have scoring opportunities against him tonight.
P 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
PLATOON EDGESF @ NYM
Mark Vientos (bats R) hits 5th against Cesar Perdomo (LHP)
Mark Vientos gets a left-hander from the fifth spot, exactly the kind of matchup that lets his power play. I like his chance to extend rallies in the middle of the Mets order.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKMIN @ CHW
Tristan Peters: 1.235 OPS in Last 15 Days
Tristan Peters’ 1.235 OPS is supported by enough plate appearances to count as real form. Over 0.5 total bases only asks this hot bat for one hit tonight.
P 3-for-5, 5 TB
STREAKARI @ HOU
HOU games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Houston’s five-game under streak has benefited from totals that offered more breathing room. Tonight’s lower number makes this a much tougher test of the same low-scoring pattern.
P final total 5 vs 4.5
STREAKOAK @ SEA
SEA games have gone OVER 5 straight
Seattle’s five straight overs have been driven by scoring explosions rather than fortunate finishes. Oakland brings the same trend into a matchup with a tiny total, giving both streaks room to continue.
P final total 2 vs 5.5
COOLING OFFLAA @ PIT
Rafael Flores Jr.: .346 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rafael Flores Jr.’s .346 OPS signals that his offensive rhythm has been missing. Pittsburgh offers a reasonable rebound setting, but I would only consider him at a heavily discounted expectation.
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 8/31
Payton Tolle
Tolle gets Seattle at home Monday and Baltimore on the road Sunday. A 2.73 xERA makes this a two-start week I’m building around. PLAN AROUND
REPLACEMENTWSU @ WASH
Peyton Read (TE) is doubtful for WSU
Read was reported likely to miss the Apple Cup while working through an unspecified minor injury. Per The Spokesman-Review, Greg Woods, Sep 4.
BALLPARKSTL @ COL
Tanner Gordon owns a 7.26 ERA at Coors Field — 2.68 everywhere else
Tanner Gordon’s 7.26 ERA at Coors compared with 2.68 elsewhere is too dramatic to overlook. St. Louis is well positioned to make him survive his worst environment tonight.
P 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
BULLPENNYY @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego’s bullpen has covered 15.7 innings in three games, even if no reliever looks completely shut down. Another short start would force the Padres deep into a taxed group against the Yankees.
PLATOON EDGEDET @ CLE
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 2nd against Jackson Jobe (RHP)
Travis Bazzana gets his productive platoon side against Jobe and bats second. That is an excellent spot to reach base early and keep getting opportunities as the order turns over.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
COOLING OFFSTL @ COL
Alec Burleson: .444 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alec Burleson’s .444 OPS is an ugly stretch, but his broader work says this is the outlier. Colorado is exactly where I’m willing to buy the bounce tonight.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
CUT LISTBAL tonight
Rece Hinds
Rece Hinds is in tonight’s lineup and batting sixth, but a .114 average and .358 OPS are impossible to carry in a season-long lineup. Regular at-bats only help if they produce, and his haven’t. CUT
PACE & SCRIPTLOU @ MISS
LOU @ MISS carries a 54.5 market total
The market expects steady scoring from both sides, with drives ending in touchdowns often enough to keep the game moving above the rest of the slate. That cracks if possessions run long, promising drives stall, or one side fails to carry its share.
COOLING OFFSTL @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .392 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kyle Leahy
Moniak’s slump has lasted long enough to matter, but Leahy gives him his preferred handedness matchup. Add the Colorado setting, and this becomes a legitimate bounce-back opportunity.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
BULLPENARI @ HOU
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Arizona’s bullpen has thrown 13 innings in three games, leaving several regular options potentially limited. The Diamondbacks need length from their starter or Houston will get repeated chances against tired middle relief.
BULLPENARI @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston’s bullpen has covered 12.7 innings in three games, with Hader and De Los Santos likely unavailable. Arizona has a real opening if it can force an early call to relief tonight.
BULLPENTB @ TEX
Texas Rangers pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas needs genuine starter length with multiple relief options compromised by recent work. Tampa Bay can expose that shortage by forcing an early move to the bullpen.
HEAT CHECKTB @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran: 1.104 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ezequiel Duran’s 1.104 OPS looks credible because it spans a meaningful sample without representing an absurd jump from his season level. Over 1.5 total bases is still demanding, so he will probably need genuine damage rather than a routine single.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKMIL @ CIN
Elly De La Cruz: 1.140 OPS in Last 15 Days
De La Cruz is playing like a star who has found another gear. With a 1.140 OPS over the last 15 days, every mistake Milwaukee makes to him can become instant damage.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ HOU
Nolan Arenado: .401 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nolan Arenado’s .401 OPS compounds an already modest season level. Against Houston, I see a cold bat in a difficult rebound spot and am keeping expectations low.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADBOS @ BAL
Red Sox are 8-5 vs Orioles this season
Boston’s 8-5 season advantage over Baltimore gained relevance with the latest shutout. Even on the road, the Red Sox deserve the lean tonight.
HEAT CHECKCHC @ MIA
Michael Conforto: 1.500 OPS in Last 15 Days
Michael Conforto’s 1.500 OPS is scorching but looks more like a compact heater than a permanent transformation. The one-base line is forgiving enough for me to ride it against Miami.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ HOU
Corbin Carroll: .545 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Peter Lambert
Corbin Carroll has cooled, but the downturn is not severe enough for me to call his swing broken. Lambert is vulnerable, yet the right-handed look still attacks Carroll from his weaker side and complicates the rebound case.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKATL @ PHI
Sean Murphy: 1.308 OPS in Last 15 Days
Sean Murphy’s bat is undeniably hot, though the size of the jump makes the surge fragile. With only one hit needed, I can back the form without asking him to maintain the full power pace.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERDET @ CLE
Wind blowing in 14 mph at Progressive Field tonight
A 14 mph wind blowing in should knock down some of the best contact to right and right-center. I expect Detroit and Cleveland to need strings of hits instead of relying on easy home-run power.
P final total 5 vs 7 (under lean)
REGRESSIONTOR @ KC
Brett Bateman: .327 AVG vs .242 xBA
Bateman’s .327 average sits well above his .242 expected mark, which points toward cooling production. I would not make him a foundation of Toronto’s offensive case tonight.
P 3-for-3, 3 TB
BALLPARKTOR @ KC
At Kauffman Stadium, Randy Dobnak pitches to a 4.45 ERA
Randy Dobnak’s 4.45 ERA at Kauffman Stadium points to a setting where contact has played poorly for him. Toronto is built to keep pressure on whenever the ball is put in play tonight.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ CIN
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Brice Turang gets his stronger platoon side against Singer while hitting sixth. That gives Milwaukee a dangerous pressure point deeper in the order.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 2 BB
SITUATIONALLOU @ MISS
No. 24 Louisville at No. 9 Ole Miss
The poll draws a real respect gap even with both teams ranked, putting Ole Miss firmly in the favorite’s seat before either side has played. At 0-0, that No. 9 standing is inherited rather than earned this season, so Ole Miss has top-10 credibility to lose while Louisville gets the cleaner chance to change how it is viewed.
COOLING OFFCHC @ MIA
Griffin Conine: .488 OPS in Last 15 Days
Griffin Conine’s .488 OPS over 40 plate appearances matters, but the gap from his established production creates bounce-back value. Returning to Miami makes tonight a reasonable spot to bet on improvement.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFOAK @ SEA
Julio Rodriguez: .453 OPS in Last 15 Days
Julio Rodriguez’s .453 OPS across 61 plate appearances is too prolonged to dismiss. Still, a home matchup with Oakland gives me enough reason to consider him as a buy-low play tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CLOSER WATCHMIN @ CHW
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Chicago has a live save chance as a -152 favorite, and Grant Taylor is fully rested after one outing in the last three games. But with Bryan Hudson only one save behind, this is a real ninth-inning committee. Start Taylor, but roster Hudson too if you’re aggressively chasing saves this week.
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/31
Paul Skenes
Skenes draws the Giants on Tuesday and the Angels on Sunday, both at home. With a 3.23 xERA, he stays locked into my weekly plan. PLAN AROUND
STREAKTOR @ KC
TOR have won 4 straight
Toronto’s four-game winning streak has featured control and separation, not just fortunate finishes. An 8-2 broader run tells me this momentum extends beyond the latest few nights.
P team lost 1-6
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ CIN
Dane Myers (bats R) hits 1st against Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Dane Myers leads off against a left-hander, giving him his stronger platoon look from the opening pitch. That is a clean setup for him to start the order with impact.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMOAK @ SEA
Gage Jump: 8.59 ERA over his last 3 starts
Gage Jump’s 8.59 ERA over his last three starts comes with too many runners and innings unraveling quickly. Seattle should be able to apply pressure from the start.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
TWO STARTSTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/31
Ian Seymour
Seymour has the Mets at home Monday before visiting Texas on Sunday. The 3.45 xERA is enough for me to use both listed starts. STREAM BOTH
HR THREATGiants @ Mets
Mark Vientos
Gary's Take Vientos is the right-handed bat I want against Perdomo. He owns a .917 OPS with eight home runs in 96 at-bats against left-handed pitching, and he has homered in five of his last 15 games.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 8/31
Gerrit Cole
Cole’s week sends him to the Angels on Tuesday and the Padres on Sunday. His 3.40 xERA keeps both road starts in play for me. STREAM BOTH
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Angels — week of 8/31
Walbert Ureña
Ureña faces the Yankees at home Monday and Pittsburgh on the road Sunday. With a 3.40 xERA, I’m taking the full two-start week. STREAM BOTH
HR THREATCubs @ Marlins
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Gary's Take Crow-Armstrong is my home-run shot because the price does not fully reflect his current power or his opportunity from the leadoff spot. He has gone deep five times in his last 15 games and owns 39 home runs for the season.
P 1 HR — 1-for-3, 4 TB
STARTER FORMBOS @ BAL
Kyle Bradish: 7.20 ERA over his last 3 starts
Kyle Bradish’s 7.20 ERA over his last three starts reflects constant traffic and too many crooked innings. Boston is positioned to make him work from the stretch again tonight.
P 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
TWO STARTSHouston Astros — week of 8/31
Peter Lambert
Lambert hosts the White Sox on Monday and the Diamondbacks on Sunday. The 3.60 xERA puts both home starts on my streaming card. STREAM BOTH
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/31
Kyle Harrison
Harrison visits the Cubs on Monday and the Reds on Sunday. A 3.52 xERA has me riding both starts despite the all-road schedule. STREAM BOTH
TWO STARTSTexas Rangers — week of 8/31
Jacob deGrom
deGrom gets the Athletics on Monday and the Rays on Saturday, both at home. With a 3.55 xERA, I’m using the complete two-start slate. STREAM BOTH
HR THREATRed Sox @ Orioles
Mickey Gasper
Gary's Take Gasper's power against right-handed pitching makes this the long shot I want. All eight of his home runs have come against righties, he owns a .986 OPS in that split, and he has homered in five of his last 15 games.
P 0 HR — 0-for-1, 0 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMMIL @ CIN
Kyle Harrison: 6.59 ERA over his last 3 starts
Kyle Harrison’s 6.59 ERA over his last three starts shows that extra baserunners are turning into sustained damage. Milwaukee gets a starter who currently struggles to finish innings cleanly.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
HEAD-TO-HEADSF @ NYM
Mets are 4-2 vs Giants this season
The Mets hold a 4-2 season edge, but San Francisco’s decisive latest win makes the matchup look less one-sided. I give New York a modest lean, nothing stronger.
REGRESSIONTOR @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 2.65 ERA vs 4.79 xERA
Randy Dobnak’s 2.65 ERA is difficult to trust against a 4.79 expected mark, especially with limited strikeouts and frequent traffic. Toronto looks like the opponent capable of turning those baserunners into runs.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
BATTER VS ARMATL @ PHI
Ronald Acuna Jr. vs Aaron Nola: .328
Ronald Acuna Jr. has consistently seen Aaron Nola well, hitting him for average and power. With Acuna’s swing already in a good place, I expect him to attack this matchup confidently.
P 2-for-3, 6 TB
NEXT SLATENFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 9
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
HEAD-TO-HEADSTL @ COL
Cardinals are 4-2 vs Rockies this season
St. Louis holds the 4-2 season edge, but the latest meeting’s 18-run eruption muddies the signal. At Coors, I’m expecting volatility to matter more than the head-to-head record alone.
STARTER FORMATL @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Aaron Nola has tightened everything up during a three-start run with a 2.00 ERA. Atlanta is facing a much sharper version of him than his season number suggests.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ TEX
Rays are 4-2 vs Rangers this season
Tampa Bay’s 4-2 advantage over Texas, reinforced by the latest meeting, supports the Rays tonight. Six games are not enough for that angle to carry the entire bet.
HEAD-TO-HEADMIN @ CHW
White Sox are 7-5 vs Twins this season
Chicago owns a modest 7-5 season edge, but Minnesota took the latest meeting and the series remains competitive. Home field gives the White Sox a slight lean, nothing stronger.
BATTER VS ARMARI @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez vs Eduardo Rodriguez: .500
Alvarez has seen Rodriguez exceptionally well and repeatedly turned those meetings into clean contact. With his bat already producing, this is one of Rodriguez’s toughest assignments tonight.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCHC @ MIA
Cubs are 2-0 vs Marlins this season
The Cubs’ 2-0 record against Miami is too small a sample to establish control, especially after a one-run game. It carries little weight in my handicap tonight.
CLOSER WATCHMIL @ CIN
Trevor Megill
Milwaukee owns the strongest save setup here as a -166 favorite. Trevor Megill is fully rested after one outing in the last three games and holds a commanding lead in saves. Start Megill with confidence; Uribe is not the saves play this week.
BATTER VS ARMATL @ PHI
Matt Olson vs Aaron Nola: .257
Olson’s .257 mark against Nola understates how well he has handled these at-bats. He makes Nola work, and one mistake over the plate could be enough to end Olson’s cold stretch tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CUT LISTDET tonight
Jackson Jobe
Jackson Jobe’s 4.63 ERA is already hurting, and the 5.65 xERA says he’s pitched even worse than that surface number. A start tonight doesn’t change the season-long math. CUT
REGRESSIONARI @ HOU
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.59 ERA vs 4.45 xERA
Eduardo Rodriguez limits hard contact well, but his 4.45 expected ERA warns that the 2.59 actual mark overstates his command of games. Houston is a dangerous opponent for that gap to begin closing against.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
REGRESSIONCHC @ MIA
Clay Holmes: 2.09 ERA vs 3.9 xERA
Clay Holmes’ 2.09 ERA is receiving more help than his 3.90 expected mark suggests, particularly on balls in play. Miami has a chance to make this start considerably tougher than the surface number implies.
P 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
STARTER FORMSTL @ COL
Kyle Leahy: 0.75 ERA over his last 3 starts
Leahy has been in complete control lately, allowing a 0.75 ERA across his last three starts while keeping traffic down. Colorado is getting a much sharper version of him than the season line suggests.
P 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
STARTER FORMTOR @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
Randy Dobnak’s 5.06 ERA over his last three starts shows that his recent work is shakier than the season line. Toronto should create sustained pressure and multiple scoring chances tonight.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONSTL @ COL
Kyle Leahy: 3.13 ERA vs 4.79 xERA
Kyle Leahy’s 3.13 ERA is hard to reconcile with a 4.79 expected mark and all the damaging contact he allows. At Coors, I expect more of those hard-hit balls to reach the scoreboard.
P 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
STARTER FORMNYY @ SD
Michael King: 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts
King has looked like a front-line arm, posting a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts while controlling damage and missing bats. The Yankees are facing him at the wrong time.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Christian Moore
Christian Moore is still getting a lineup spot and batting sixth tonight, but the .162 average and .491 OPS make the roster case too thin. Playing time alone isn’t enough to justify waiting. CUT
REGRESSIONTB @ TEX
Chandler Simpson: .308 AVG vs .257 xBA
Simpson’s speed and contact give him ways to contribute, but a .308 average is running well ahead of his .257 expected mark. I’m treating him as a regression candidate against Texas.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
FIRST INNINGSF @ NYM
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of SF @ NYM
San Francisco brings the stronger early-scoring signal, while New York has not completely closed the first-inning door. I see enough immediate traffic potential to put the YRFI in play.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
CLOSER WATCHARI @ HOU
Brandyn Garcia / Juan Morillo
Arizona has a narrow live save chance as a -106 favorite, but Brandyn Garcia has worked twice in the last three games and threw yesterday. With Juan Morillo only one save behind, the ninth could easily swing inside this committee. Keep Garcia active if needed, but Morillo is the sharper speculative add for saves this week.
FIRST INNINGMIL @ CIN
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of MIL @ CIN
Both sides of Milwaukee-Cincinnati have been vulnerable in the opening inning, giving the YRFI real appeal. An early exchange would also expose two stressed bullpens and open the game immediately.
P 1st inning: 0-1 (1 run)
BATTER VS ARMOAK @ SEA
Bryan Woo vs Lawrence Butler: 2-for-21, 6 K
Woo has reduced Butler to two hits in 21 at-bats and struck him out six times. Until Butler changes the shape of this matchup, Woo can keep attacking him with confidence.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth has the best lineup placement of this group, batting second tonight, but a .212 average and .585 OPS still leave too little season-long production. The lineup spot makes this closer, not good enough. CUT
REGRESSIONNYY @ SD
Ty France: .292 AVG vs .251 xBA
France’s contact supports a useful hitter, but his .292 average is well above the .251 expected mark. He can help New York, though I would not make him the reason to trust its offense tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BALLPARKDET @ CLE
Gavin Williams's ERA drops to 3.01 at Progressive Field
Gavin Williams’ 3.01 ERA at Progressive Field comes over enough work to trust as more than a venue fluke. He is set up to control Detroit at home tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
STARTER FORMMIN @ CHW
Bailey Ober: 2.51 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ober has steadied himself with a 2.51 ERA across his last three starts. Chicago is facing a pitcher whose current form is considerably better than his full-season numbers imply.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
BULLPENMIN @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago’s bullpen has worked hard, but it still has usable length available behind the starter. The White Sox are better positioned than Minnesota to cover an early exit without leaning immediately on their most taxed arms.
PARK WEATHERTOR @ KC
95° at Kauffman Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
At 95 degrees, well-elevated contact should get extra carry at Kauffman tonight. The wind may make right field less inviting, but both Toronto and Kansas City have paths to power elsewhere.
P final total 7 vs 9.5 (over lean)
REGRESSIONCHC @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.43 ERA vs 4.63 xERA
Tyler Phillips’ 3.43 ERA looks fragile beside a 4.63 expected mark, modest strikeouts and plenty of hard contact. The Cubs are catching him in a clear regression spot.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONNYY @ SD
Michael King: 3.11 ERA vs 4.36 xERA
Michael King has genuinely managed contact, but his 4.36 expected ERA shows that the 3.11 actual mark includes some good fortune. The Yankees can narrow that gap tonight, though I would not expect a complete collapse.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
FIRST INNINGNYY @ SD
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of NYY @ SD
King and Cole both look built to control the opening frame, and neither lineup has been doing much damage right away. I’m watching the NRFI in a game that should demand patience before the scoring chances arrive.
P 1st inning: 0-3 (3 runs)
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/8
Ryne Nelson
Ryne Nelson is on Arizona’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. He carries a 4.97 ERA, and September 8 is only his listed return date—not a promise. Leave him on the wire outside deep leagues.
CUT LISTBOS tonight
Trevor Story
A .611 OPS and .237 average are hard to carry all season, even from the cleanup spot. Story is playing tonight and batting fourth, so the role still gives him a reason to hold if you can afford patience, but the production makes him cuttable when you need immediate help. Cut in shallow leagues; hold in deeper formats.
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 9/8
Jake Fraley
Jake Fraley is on Tampa Bay’s 60-day IL with a groin injury. His listed return date is September 8, and his season OPS is .690. Not enough here for me to stash him.
TOMORROWSTL @ SF
Michael McGreevy: 3.97 ERA vs 5.36 xERA
McGreevy’s 3.97 ERA hides a shakier contact profile, with too many hard-hit and barreled balls underneath it. San Francisco will have a favorable chance to expose that gap tomorrow.
TOMORROWMIN @ DET
Troy Melton: 2.2 ERA vs 3.58 xERA
Melton’s 2.20 ERA carries some good fortune, but the contact quality supports plenty of his success. Minnesota is facing a pitcher whose 3.58 xERA still reflects legitimate skill rather than a full collapse waiting to happen.
BALLPARKMIL @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 4.08 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 5.67 everywhere else
Brady Singer has been better at Great American Ball Park, but a 4.08 home ERA is solid rather than dominant. The split gives him a more comfortable setup tonight without erasing Milwaukee’s other advantages.
P 5 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
TOMORROWTOR @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 4.71 ERA vs 3.4 xERA
Lopez has pitched better than his 4.71 ERA, with limited hard contact and barrels supporting the 3.40 expected mark. Toronto may be catching him just as the results begin moving back toward the quality of his work.
SITUATIONALWIS @ ND
Wisconsin at No. 4 Notre Dame
Notre Dame is being treated like a national heavyweight, while Wisconsin enters without any poll protection at all. That No. 4 ranking is inherited at 0-0, and with first-place support already attached, Notre Dame has far more reputation to lose than gain in this spot.
BALLPARKATL @ PHI
Aaron Nola owns a 5.72 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.26 everywhere else
Citizens Bank Park has been a problem for Nola, not a comfort, with his home ERA sitting at 5.72 compared with 4.26 elsewhere. Atlanta has a real chance to make that split matter again tonight.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
RUNNING GAMETB @ TEX
Tampa Bay Rays like to run — Elias Diaz (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Tampa Bay likes to create pressure with its legs, but Diaz’s 35% caught-stealing rate demands better judgment. I expect the Rays to choose their spots carefully rather than hand Texas an avoidable out.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 1 base
QUARTERBACKWSU @ WASH
Caden Pinnick is WSU's returning passer on 2025 numbers
This offense moves through accurate, aggressive passing, with enough scoring production to justify the risks that come with pushing the ball. The test at Washington is whether Pinnick can sustain that efficiency while protecting possessions in a matchup where his counterpart can also keep an offense moving.
QUARTERBACKWSU @ WASH
Demond Williams Jr. is WASH's returning passer on 2025 numbers
Washington gets its offense downfield without sacrificing completion rate, and Williams has generally kept the mistakes under control. Against Washington State, the challenge is matching Pinnick's explosiveness without letting the game force him into careless throws.
QUARTERBACKLOU @ MISS
Davin Wydner is LOU's returning passer on 2025 numbers
Louisville is getting more functional volume than real passing efficiency here, with accuracy and interceptions limiting how consistently the offense can move. Facing an Ole Miss attack led by a far more efficient, secure passer tests whether Wydner can create enough offense without compounding the gap through turnovers.
QUARTERBACKLOU @ MISS
Trinidad Chambliss is MISS's returning passer on 2025 numbers
Ole Miss can lean on Chambliss for sustained volume, strong efficiency, and exceptional care of the football. Louisville's test is trying to disrupt a passer who rarely gives possessions away, while Chambliss must keep that control against an opponent likely needing him to make mistakes.
QUARTERBACKWIS @ ND
Colton Joseph is WIS's returning passer on 2025 numbers
Joseph's line points to a big-play offense rather than one built on steady completion-to-completion rhythm, and the interceptions show the cost of that approach. Notre Dame presents a test of whether he can keep generating chunk gains without giving extra possessions to an efficient opposing offense.
QUARTERBACKWIS @ ND
CJ Carr is ND's returning passer on 2025 numbers
Carr gives Notre Dame an efficient passing foundation with strong accuracy, explosive gains, and solid ball security. Wisconsin brings a passer capable of producing big yards per throw, so Carr's test is to maintain that cleaner style if the matchup turns into an exchange of explosive plays.
CUT LISTMIL tonight
Sal Frelick
Frelick's leadoff spot is useful, but a .635 OPS with a .237 average hasn't turned that premium lineup position into enough season-long production. Being in tonight's lineup keeps him viable as a short-term option, not a player you have to protect. Cut unless your league is deep.
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/9
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with an elbow injury. He has a 5.16 ERA, with September 9 listed as his return date. I’m passing unless the league is exceptionally deep.
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ CIN
Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Bo Naylor has caught just 10%
Cincinnati should have the green light whenever it puts a runner aboard. With only a 10% caught-stealing rate opposing them, the Reds can manufacture pressure and runs without waiting for multiple hits.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 3 bases
TOMORROWATL @ PHI
Grant Holmes: 3.62 ERA vs 4.73 xERA
Holmes’ 3.62 ERA is hard to trust beside a 4.73 xERA and a contact profile filled with hard hits and barrels. Philadelphia has a favorable opportunity to make that loud contact finally show up on the scoreboard.
BATTER VS ARMBOS @ BAL
Kyle Bradish vs Trevor Story: 1-for-12, 6 K
Bradish has completely controlled Story in this matchup, holding him to one hit in 12 at-bats with six strikeouts. Until Story proves he can change the shape of those encounters, this remains Bradish’s battle.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Perez is batting cleanup tonight, but a .648 OPS and .226 average give you a legitimate reason to move on. The middle-of-the-order role earns a little patience, though the season-long results do not make him untouchable. Hold in deeper leagues; cut if a clearly better option is available.
CLOSER WATCHLAA @ PIT
Samy Natera Jr. / Ben Joyce
The Angels’ +164 underdog line makes a save chance less likely tonight. Samy Natera Jr. is fully rested, but he and Ben Joyce are tied in saves, leaving the ninth inning unsettled. Lean Natera if choosing one, but treat both arms as speculative committee plays rather than dependable saves sources.
REGRESSIONSF @ NYM
San Francisco Giants are 12-25 in one-run games (.324 win%)
San Francisco’s 12-25 record in one-run games makes the Giants look weaker than they probably are. I’m keeping an eye out for value on them before that extreme close-game luck starts moving back toward even.
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Kansas City is an underdog at home, limiting tonight's save outlook. Erceg is fully rested after no outings in the last three games, though Lange sits only two saves behind. Start Erceg for the slight lead, with Lange as a worthwhile speculative roster in saves-needy leagues.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ CIN
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio is batting third with a .283 average and an .818 OPS, and tonight he gets struggling Brady Singer and his 5.02 xERA. That lineup spot and matchup make Chourio the strongest hitter to add from this group. Add in any league where he is available, especially if you need an outfielder for tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ COL
TJ Rumfield
Rumfield is batting .295 with an .842 OPS from the cleanup spot, and tonight he faces struggling Kyle Leahy and his 4.79 xERA. That is the kind of middle-order matchup I want to attack. Add him if you need a first baseman or a deep-league bat with a strong setup tonight.
CLOSER WATCHBOS @ BAL
Andrew Kittredge / Ryan Helsley
Baltimore is an underdog, so the odds do not point to a premium save spot tonight. Andrew Kittredge is fully rested, but Ryan Helsley sits only one save behind him in this committee. Kittredge is the first choice, but Helsley is close enough that saves chasers should roster either available arm.
CUT LISTPHI tonight
Trea Turner
The cut case is right there in the season line: a .239 average and .669 OPS are hurting more than helping. But Turner is in tonight’s lineup and batting second, so I’m not bailing yet. HOLD
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ CLE
Angel Martinez
Angel Martinez gets the same inviting matchup with struggling Jackson Jobe and his 5.65 xERA. His .245 average and .715 OPS offer a slightly stronger baseline than Bazzana's, though batting fifth gives him a less attractive lineup spot. Add for deep-league managers needing an outfielder tonight; choose Bazzana first if second-base eligibility or lineup position matters more.
RUNNING GAMENYY @ SD
New York Yankees like to run — Luis Campusano (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
The Yankees may want to run, but Campusano’s 33% caught-stealing rate makes aggression costly. If he erases one early, New York will have to produce its runs by stringing together quality at-bats.
P New York Yankees stole 0 bases
REGRESSIONATL @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 24-12 in one-run games (.667 win%)
Philadelphia’s 24-12 mark in one-run games has added shine to its overall record, but that kind of close-game success is difficult to sustain. I’m wary of paying a premium for the Phillies tonight.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti owns a 4.82 ERA with an even uglier 5.16 xERA. There’s no underlying-performance argument for keeping him just because he starts tonight. CUT
FANTASY PICKUPSOAK @ SEA
Bryan Woo
I’m adding Bryan Woo where I need a starter today. The 3.65 xERA is better than his 4.25 season ERA, and the combination of 9 K/9 with a 1.09 WHIP gives me enough upside against Oakland. Add in deep leagues for managers chasing strikeouts without taking on much WHIP risk.
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ CLE
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana bats second against struggling Jackson Jobe, whose xERA sits at 5.65. The .242 average and .709 OPS are modest, but the premium lineup spot and favorable matchup create a clear reason to take the shot today. Add for deep-league managers who need a second baseman or matchup-driven at-bats tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ MIA
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki owns the best OPS here at .848, carries a .270 average, and bats second against struggling Tyler Phillips and his 4.63 xERA. I want that combination of production, lineup position, and matchup in my lineup tonight. Add for managers seeking an outfielder or a one-night bat; he belongs just behind Chourio among these hitters.
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/11
Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta is on San Diego’s 60-day IL with a forearm injury. He has a 4.50 ERA, and September 11 is his listed return date. I’m leaving him available in standard season-long leagues.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Carter Baumler
Carter Baumler is on Texas’s 60-day IL with a rib injury. He owns a 3.18 ERA, with September 11 listed as his return date. I’d consider the stash only in deep formats with an open IL spot.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Robert Garcia
Robert Garcia is on Texas’s 60-day IL with a shoulder injury. His season ERA is 3.38, and September 11 is the listed return date. He’s a reasonable deep-league IL stash, but not a must-hold.
TOMORROWCHC @ MIL
Matthew Boyd: 4.05 ERA vs 4.86 xERA
Boyd’s 4.05 ERA has received some help, with his barrel rate and opponent-average gap pointing toward a 4.86 expected mark. Milwaukee has a chance to turn that dangerous contact into the extra-base damage he has been avoiding.
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Brady Singer
Brady Singer’s 4.83 ERA comes with a 5.02 xERA, so the surface results aren’t hiding a rebound case. Tonight’s start isn’t enough reason to keep carrying him. CUT
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ HOU
Peter Lambert
Peter Lambert is a steady deep-league option today. His 3.60 xERA nearly matches his 3.66 season ERA, while 8.9 K/9 and a 1.24 WHIP make the Arizona matchup playable. Add in deep leagues if you need innings and strikeouts today and can accept the higher WHIP.
BATTER VS ARMARI @ HOU
Jeremy Pena vs Eduardo Rodriguez: .385
Pena’s .385 mark against Rodriguez suggests genuine comfort in the matchup, not one fortunate swing. With his recent form holding steady, I expect him to apply pressure without chasing the result.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMDET @ CLE
Colt Keith vs Gavin Williams: .364
Keith’s .364 mark against Williams shows that he has seen this matchup comfortably and found pitches to square up. Even with Williams’ strong home profile, Keith has a credible path to breaking out tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
FIRST INNINGSTL @ COL
COL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Colorado has produced a first-inning run only once in its last 10, while both starters have been steady out of the gate. I expect a quiet opening, with St. Louis the more likely side to land the first punch.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGARI @ HOU
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Arizona has scored in the first inning just once in its last 10, and Lambert gives the Diamondbacks another difficult opening assignment. Houston is the clear early threat against Wrobleski and has the better path to scoring first.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGWSH @ LAD
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Washington’s early silence is likely to continue against a starter who has been nearly untouchable in the first. Wrobleski is the vulnerable arm here, giving Los Angeles the cleanest path to an early lead.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
SITUATIONALWSU @ WASH
Washington State at No. 17 Washington
Washington owns the respect in this matchup, but No. 17 is meaningful without making the gap untouchable. The ranking is inherited at 0-0, so Washington is defending its place in the poll while Washington State gets the opportunity to take it apart.
HEAD-TO-HEADWSU @ WASH
WSU and WASH have met once since 2025
That lone meeting was completely one-way, with Washington controlling it from start to finish. The biggest change tonight is the setting: Washington won that game on the road and now gets Washington State at home.

Graded results

Games

W
Reds ML +122
MLB · 8-12
W
Braves ML -106
MLB · 5-4
W
Angels +1.5 -140
MLB · 0-1
W
Red Sox ML -134
MLB · 3-1
L
Giants ML +140
MLB · 2-4
W
Guardians ML -158
MLB · 2-3
L
Cubs ML -146
MLB · 3-10
W
Diamondbacks ML -106
MLB · 3-2
W
Rangers ML -108
MLB · 6-8
L
Rockies ML +118
MLB · 10-8
L
Blue Jays ML -122
MLB · 1-6
W
Mariners -1.5 +114
MLB · 0-2
W
Padres ML -106
MLB · 3-4
L
Washington Huskies -23.5 -110
NCAAF · 10-24
L
Twins ML +124
MLB · 1-10
L
Wisconsin Badgers +21.5 -120
NCAAF · 13-41
W
Louisville Cardinals +6.5 -104
NCAAF · 38-41
L
Nationals +1.5 -122
MLB · 5-7

Props

L
Aaron Nola · over
Braves @ Phillies · Actual 4
L
Bo Naylor · under
Brewers @ Reds · Actual 2
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Angels @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Brandon Valenzuela · under
Blue Jays @ Royals · Actual 0
W
Brooks Lee · over
Twins @ White Sox · Actual 1
W
Bryan Torres · under
Cardinals @ Rockies · Actual 1
W
Bryce Eldridge · over
Giants @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Christian Scott · over
Giants @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Clay Holmes · under
Cubs @ Marlins · Actual 3
W
Dustin Harris · over
Yankees @ Padres · Actual 1
W
Eduardo Rodriguez · under
Diamondbacks @ Astros · Actual 1
W
Gage Jump · over
Athletics @ Mariners · Actual 2
L
Harry Ford · over
Nationals @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Hector Rodriguez · over
Brewers @ Reds · Actual 6
W
Ian Seymour · under
Rays @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Ian Seymour · over
Rays @ Rangers · Actual 2
W
Jackson Jobe · under
Tigers @ Guardians · Actual 15
W
Jacob Young · over
Nationals @ Dodgers · Actual 3
L
James McCann · over
Diamondbacks @ Astros · Actual 0
W
James McCann · over
Diamondbacks @ Astros · Actual 2
L
Jhonny Pereda · over
Athletics @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
John Rave · over
Blue Jays @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Justin Foscue · over
Rays @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Kaelen Culpepper · over
Twins @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Kyle Bradish · over
Red Sox @ Orioles · Actual 4
L
Leo Bernal · over
Cardinals @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Yankees @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Mark Vientos · over
Giants @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Michael Harris II · over
Braves @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Michael King · over
Yankees @ Padres · Actual 3
L
Mickey Gasper · over
Red Sox @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Mookie Betts · under
Nationals @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Tigers @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Payton Tolle · under
Red Sox @ Orioles · Actual 12
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Marlins · Actual 1
W
Riley Greene · over
Tigers @ Guardians · Actual 4
L
Sal Stewart · over
Brewers @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Sean Murphy · over
Braves @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Tanner Gordon · over
Cardinals @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Tyler Phillips · under
Cubs @ Marlins · Actual 3
W
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · under
Blue Jays @ Royals · Actual 0
W
Wade Meckler · over
Angels @ Pirates · Actual 1
W
Walbert Urena · under
Angels @ Pirates · Actual 1
L
Walker Jenkins · over
Twins @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Zack Gelof · over
Athletics @ Mariners · Actual 0