Cardinals at Rockies
O/U 18.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Coors Field
The line
FANDUEL · 14 moves| Market | Opened Sun 6:23 AM | Close Sun 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Cardinals -1.5 (+115) | Cardinals -1.5 (-550) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Cardinals -130 | Cardinals -5000 | −4870 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSun 6:23 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+115) | — | Cardinals -130 · Rockies +110 |
| Sun 7:15 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+114) | — | Cardinals -130 · Rockies +110 |
| Sun 7:53 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+110) | — | Cardinals -134 · Rockies +114 |
| Sun 10:17 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+108) | — | Cardinals -134 · Rockies +114 |
| Sun 10:28 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+106) | — | Cardinals -134 · Rockies +114 |
| Sun 10:38 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+110) | — | Cardinals -134 · Rockies +114 |
| Sun 10:38 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+110) | — | Cardinals -134 · Rockies +114 |
| Sun 11:41 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+112) | — | Cardinals -134 · Rockies +114 |
| Sun 11:53 AM | Cardinals -1.5 (+105) | — | Cardinals -138 · Rockies +118 |
| Sun 12:17 PM | Cardinals -1.5 (+108) | — | Cardinals -138 · Rockies +118 |
| Sun 12:56 PM | Cardinals -1.5 (+106) | — | Cardinals -138 · Rockies +118 |
| Sun 3:40 PM | Cardinals +1.5 (-114) | — | Cardinals +180 · Rockies -235 |
| Sun 4:13 PM | Cardinals +3.5 (-120) | — | Cardinals +420 · Rockies -650 |
| Sun 4:30 PM | Cardinals +3.5 (-102) | — | Cardinals +630 · Rockies -1200 |
| CLOSESun 7:30 PM | Cardinals -1.5 (-550) | — | Cardinals -5000 · Rockies +1300 |
The read
Colorado’s lineup makes Leahy’s weakness against left-handed hitters central to this game. He has allowed them an .847 OPS, compared with .595 against right-handed hitters, and Colorado starts six left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters. McCarthy has a specific opening against Leahy’s most-used pitch: he has slugged .632 against four-seamers, while Leahy’s four-seamer has allowed a .438 xwOBA. Rumfield’s .862 OPS against right-handers gives Colorado another productive matchup near the top.
Gordon’s recent outings give me enough reason to back Colorado through the starting-pitching portion. He allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts, including his latest outing at Coors. His last three starts produced 3 BB in 17.1 IP. I’m betting that recent control carries into this game. His difficult home history remains a risk, but I think these latest outings narrow the advantage St. Louis deserves for starting Leahy.
Colorado also has workable relief choices. Herget and Manfredi did not pitch Saturday, while Hill and Frasso needed 15 and 12 pitches for their scoreless innings. Romano’s 34 pitches across Friday and Saturday make the ninth inning a concern. St. Louis has a credible answer in Graceffo, Stanek, Soriano and O’Brien, all of whom sat Saturday. Goodman sitting also reduces the power in Colorado’s starting lineup. Those are substantial reasons to keep this a modest-confidence play.
My judgment is that Colorado’s matchup against Leahy, supported by Gordon’s recent control, makes the underdog worth this price. I’m assuming Gordon sustains that control and Leahy’s recent workload protection remains relevant today; another shortened start is a possibility, not an announced restriction.
The unresolved detail that could change my decision is St. Louis’ intended pitching sequence. A confirmed extended assignment for Hjerpe behind Leahy would make me reassess how often Colorado gets the favorable right-handed matchups supporting this bet. Johnston and Moniak have substantially weaker supplied splits against left-handers, so that potential change matters directly to the case.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Kyle Leahy: 0.75 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.75Leahy has been in complete control lately, allowing a 0.75 ERA across his last three starts while keeping traffic down. Colorado is getting a much sharper version of him than the season line suggests.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Tanner Gordon (RHP)
.931Burleson’s strength against right-handers makes him a natural fit in the three-hole. He is positioned to extend innings or bring home anyone Gordon allows aboard.
COOLING OFF
Alec Burleson: .444 OPS in Last 15 Days
.444Alec Burleson’s .444 OPS is an ugly stretch, but his broader work says this is the outlier. Colorado is exactly where I’m willing to buy the bounce tonight.
Mickey Moniak: .392 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kyle Leahy
.392Moniak’s slump has lasted long enough to matter, but Leahy gives him his preferred handedness matchup. Add the Colorado setting, and this becomes a legitimate bounce-back opportunity.
BULLPEN
Colorado Rockies pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
13.3 IPColorado’s bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings in three games, and Romano and Bernardino look especially compromised. St. Louis should press early before the Rockies can piece together the late innings.
FIRST INNING
COL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10Colorado has produced a first-inning run only once in its last 10, while both starters have been steady out of the gate. I expect a quiet opening, with St. Louis the more likely side to land the first punch.
BALLPARK
Tanner Gordon owns a 7.26 ERA at Coors Field — 2.68 everywhere else
7.26Tanner Gordon’s 7.26 ERA at Coors compared with 2.68 elsewhere is too dramatic to overlook. St. Louis is well positioned to make him survive his worst environment tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals are 4-2 vs Rockies this season
4-2St. Louis holds the 4-2 season edge, but the latest meeting’s 18-run eruption muddies the signal. At Coors, I’m expecting volatility to matter more than the head-to-head record alone.
TEAM RECORD
Rockies 1-7 in Tanner Gordon's last 8 starts
1-7A 1-7 record in Tanner Gordon’s last eight starts is a pattern I cannot ignore. Colorado once again looks vulnerable against St. Louis tonight.
REGRESSION
Kyle Leahy: 3.13 ERA vs 4.79 xERA
4.79Kyle Leahy’s 3.13 ERA is hard to reconcile with a 4.79 expected mark and all the damaging contact he allows. At Coors, I expect more of those hard-hit balls to reach the scoreboard.
FANTASY PICKUPS
TJ Rumfield
.842 OPSRumfield is batting .295 with an .842 OPS from the cleanup spot, and tonight he faces struggling Kyle Leahy and his 4.79 xERA. That is the kind of middle-order matchup I want to attack. Add him if you need a first baseman or a deep-league bat with a strong setup tonight.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 6, 2026 at 11:04 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
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Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKBRYAN TORRESHITS UNDER 1.5
Torres has finished below two hits in 13 of his last 15 games and averages only 0.6 hits per game this season. Batting first gives him opportunities, but producing multiple hits remains a high bar for a part-time bat. Gordon has also allowed just nine hits across his last two starts. Coors is the obvious risk, but I’m backing Torres to finish with zero or one hit.
- GARY'S PICKTANNER GORDONPITCHER WALKS OVER 0.5
I only need one free pass from Gordon. He averages one walk per start, and St.
Louis puts Bryan Torres and Iván Herrera—two hitters willing to work counts—at the top of the order. Gordon does not generate many chases with his four-seamer or slider, so there should be at least one plate appearance where he has to work away from contact.
One walk is enough.
- THE LONG SHOTLEO BERNALHR OVER 0.5
Bernal will bat from the left side against Gordon, whose left-handed opponents have produced an .884 OPS with 12 home runs in 209 at-bats. Gordon has allowed eight homers in eight starts and owns a 7.26 ERA at Coors Field. Bernal’s major-league sample is small, but he has already shown extra-base power and hits fifth, giving him a strong lineup position for this price. At +543, this is the long shot I want.
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