Tigers at Guardians

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  JACKSON JOBEPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

  MLBDetroit Tigers· -154

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 15

  GARY'S TAKE

  Jobe has stayed under this number in four of his five starts, recording 15 or fewer outs each time except for one 5⅓-inning outing. His 1.46 WHIP and 10 walks through 23⅓ innings create the long plate appearances that can push his pitch count up before the sixth inning is complete. He needed 92 pitches to get 15 outs in his latest start. Cleveland can stack eight hitters who bat left-handed against him, and Jobe has generated only a 14.8% whiff rate with the four-seamer he throws most often. Detroit also activated Brant Hurter, giving the club a fresh length option behind him. The risk is that Jobe finds early-count outs against a lineup averaging only four runs per game, but I expect traffic and pitch count to keep him from finishing six.

  ×

  Jackson Jobe
  Pitcher Outs under 15.5

  -154 · CASHED · ACTUAL 15

  Detroit Tigers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Jobe has stayed under this number in four of his five starts, recording 15 or fewer outs each time except for one 5⅓-inning outing. His 1.46 WHIP and 10 walks through 23⅓ innings create the long plate appearances that can push his pitch count up before the sixth inning is complete. He needed 92 pitches to get 15 outs in his latest start.

  Cleveland can stack eight hitters who bat left-handed against him, and Jobe has generated only a 14.8% whiff rate with the four-seamer he throws most often. Detroit also activated Brant Hurter, giving the club a fresh length option behind him. The risk is that Jobe finds early-count outs against a lineup averaging only four runs per game, but I expect traffic and pitch count to keep him from finishing six.

• GARY'S PICK

  RILEY GREENEH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBDetroit Tigers· -164

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  GARY'S TAKE

  Greene has cleared this in 13 of his last 15 games, and this market gives me three ways to win with Detroit's best hitter batting cleanup. He returned from the injured list this week and produced four hits, three runs and four RBIs Saturday, so I am betting on the lineup position and opportunity rather than requiring another power display. Gavin Williams is a difficult assignment. He has limited left-handed hitters to a .188 average and .597 OPS, and his sweeper, four-seamer and curveball have all missed bats. That matchup keeps my conviction measured at this price. Still, Greene should receive around four plate appearances, and one hit, one run after reaching base or one RBI is enough.

  ×

  Riley Greene
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -164 · CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  Detroit Tigers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Greene has cleared this in 13 of his last 15 games, and this market gives me three ways to win with Detroit's best hitter batting cleanup. He returned from the injured list this week and produced four hits, three runs and four RBIs Saturday, so I am betting on the lineup position and opportunity rather than requiring another power display.

  Gavin Williams is a difficult assignment. He has limited left-handed hitters to a .188 average and .597 OPS, and his sweeper, four-seamer and curveball have all missed bats. That matchup keeps my conviction measured at this price. Still, Greene should receive around four plate appearances, and one hit, one run after reaching base or one RBI is enough.

• THE LONG SHOT

  NATHANIEL LOWEHR OVER 0.5

  MLBCleveland Guardians· +820

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is my long shot. Lowe owns all 15 of his home runs against right-handed pitching and a .834 OPS in that split, and he is batting cleanup against Jobe. Jobe's four-seamer has allowed a .464 xwOBA with only a 14.8% whiff rate, and he has surrendered four home runs across five starts. If he challenges Lowe with that pitch, the matchup offers real damage potential. Lowe has only one homer in his last 15 games, while the 14 mph wind blowing in from right field works against left-handed power. Those are meaningful drawbacks, but +820 pays for them. I am taking the price on Lowe's platoon power and prime lineup position.

  ×

  Nathaniel Lowe
  HR over 0.5

  +820 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Cleveland Guardians

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is my long shot. Lowe owns all 15 of his home runs against right-handed pitching and a .834 OPS in that split, and he is batting cleanup against Jobe. Jobe's four-seamer has allowed a .464 xwOBA with only a 14.8% whiff rate, and he has surrendered four home runs across five starts. If he challenges Lowe with that pitch, the matchup offers real damage potential.

  Lowe has only one homer in his last 15 games, while the 14 mph wind blowing in from right field works against left-handed power. Those are meaningful drawbacks, but +820 pays for them. I am taking the price on Lowe's platoon power and prime lineup position.