Yankees at Padres
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Petco Park
The line
FANATICS · 23 moves| Market | Opened Sun 6:23 AM | Close Sun 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | Yankees -1.5 (+1500) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Padres -110 | Padres -3000 | −2890 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSun 6:23 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 7:15 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+160) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 7:53 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -105 · Yankees -115 |
| Sun 9:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 10:17 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Padres -105 · Yankees -115 |
| Sun 10:38 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 10:38 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -105 · Yankees -115 |
| Sun 11:06 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Padres -105 · Yankees -115 |
| Sun 11:41 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -105 · Yankees -115 |
| Sun 12:17 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 12:56 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 12:58 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+160) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 1:05 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 1:18 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+160) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 1:20 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 1:37 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+160) | — | Padres -110 · Yankees -110 |
| Sun 1:52 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+165) | — | Padres -115 · Yankees -105 |
| Sun 2:20 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+170) | — | Padres -115 · Yankees -105 |
| Sun 2:55 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+165) | — | Padres -115 · Yankees -105 |
| Sun 3:40 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+175) | — | Padres -120 · Yankees +100 |
| Sun 4:13 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+170) | — | Padres -125 · Yankees -105 |
| Sun 4:30 PM | Yankees +3.5 (-145) | — | Padres -750 · Yankees +460 |
| CLOSESun 7:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+1500) | — | Padres -3000 · Yankees +1300 |
The read
The advantage I’m buying is San Diego’s ability to turn from King to its preferred relievers. Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez and Yuki Matsui all sat yesterday after throwing 22, 14, 9 and 12 pitches Friday. The club’s reported willingness to shorten starters’ leashes makes those options particularly relevant. I give that potential finishing group more weight tonight than the nearly identical season bullpen ERAs.
King’s matchup supports that approach. He brings a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts and a .638 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters this season. New York’s listed order is heavily left-handed, but its strength varies considerably: Spencer Jones has a .670 OPS against righties and Jasson Domínguez .585. My expectation is that King can limit the supporting production around the Yankees’ strongest bats.
San Diego also has specific ways to challenge Cole. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .416 xwOBA against four-seamers and .418 against sliders, Cole’s primary offerings. Ty France brings a .893 OPS against right-handed pitching. Those season samples support an offensive path, although the pitch-type results cover many pitchers and cannot establish how these individual matchups will unfold.
The Yankees’ strongest answers keep my edge modest. Ben Rice’s .929 OPS and Luis García Jr.’s .904 against righties make them substantial threats to King. Cole has 18 strikeouts against three walks over his last three starts, and David Bednar and Paul Blackburn also rested yesterday. New York has credible ways to win both the starting-pitching matchup and the later innings.
My judgment is that King’s fit and San Diego’s relief options together justify backing the Padres at this near-even price. That assumes the listed batting orders hold and the preferred finishers can pitch today. The unresolved fact most likely to change my decision is their actual availability: a pregame announcement that Miller or Morejon cannot pitch would materially weaken the central reason for this bet.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Michael King: 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.92King has looked like a front-line arm, posting a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts while controlling damage and missing bats. The Yankees are facing him at the wrong time.
BULLPEN
San Diego Padres pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
15.7 IPSan Diego’s bullpen has covered 15.7 innings in three games, even if no reliever looks completely shut down. Another short start would force the Padres deep into a taxed group against the Yankees.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of NYY @ SD
NRFIKing and Cole both look built to control the opening frame, and neither lineup has been doing much damage right away. I’m watching the NRFI in a game that should demand patience before the scoring chances arrive.
RUNNING GAME
New York Yankees like to run — Luis Campusano (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
33% CSThe Yankees may want to run, but Campusano’s 33% caught-stealing rate makes aggression costly. If he erases one early, New York will have to produce its runs by stringing together quality at-bats.
REGRESSION
Ty France: .292 AVG vs .251 xBA
.251France’s contact supports a useful hitter, but his .292 average is well above the .251 expected mark. He can help New York, though I would not make him the reason to trust its offense tonight.
Michael King: 3.11 ERA vs 4.36 xERA
4.36Michael King has genuinely managed contact, but his 4.36 expected ERA shows that the 3.11 actual mark includes some good fortune. The Yankees can narrow that gap tonight, though I would not expect a complete collapse.
CUT LIST
Jake Cronenworth
0.585 OPSJake Cronenworth has the best lineup placement of this group, batting second tonight, but a .212 average and .585 OPS still leave too little season-long production. The lineup spot makes this closer, not good enough. CUT
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 6, 2026 at 11:04 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- THE LONG SHOTLUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5
Garcia has done nearly all of his home-run damage in this matchup split, hitting 25 of his 28 homers against right-handed pitching. He is batting third, has gone deep four times in his last 15 games and should receive four chances unless King dominates the order.
King has allowed 18 home runs in 28 starts, including 12 to left-handed hitters. Petco and the wind keep this firmly in long-shot territory, but Garcia’s power profile gives me enough probability to take the +550 rather than pay the shorter prices elsewhere on the board.
- GARY'S PICKDUSTIN HARRISH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Harris has hit .421 with a .924 OPS over the last 15 days, and this combination gives me three ways to cash without requiring extra-base damage. A single settles it immediately, while his speed creates another route through a walk and a run.
Cole is a difficult matchup, particularly for left-handed hitters, but Harris has earned this start with consistently strong contact. At this price, I’m backing him to contribute once from the seventh spot.
- GARY'S PICKMICHAEL KINGPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
King has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight starts and averages 2.3 per start this season. He has also completed six innings in seven of those eight outings, giving this over enough time to develop.
The Yankees’ lineup draws a walk in roughly nine percent of its plate appearances and presents seven left-handed hitters. King can miss bats with his changeup and sweeper, but navigating that many opposite-handed matchups should create enough deep counts for two free passes.
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