Yankees at Diamondbacks

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• GARY'S PICK

  GERRIT COLEPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

  MLBNew York Yankees· -179

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  The number is 1.5 earned runs at -179 — basically asking whether Cole clears the lowest bar in the sport one more time. Over his last three starts he's been hit for 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings, a 6.48 ERA, and the start before that was a 3-run outing against Houston on August 27 — four straight turns now allowing at least three earned runs, a sharp reversal from the one run he allowed in each of his two starts before that stretch, on August 14 and August 20. He's allowed seven home runs in his last two outings alone, four against San Diego on September 6 and three more against the Mets on September 12, and that's not a coincidence: he's a fly-ball pitcher this season at a 0.59 groundout-to-airout ratio with hard contact allowed on 45.8 percent of batted balls, walking into Chase Field, a park built for that kind of contact to leave the yard. The specific issue is which side of the plate the damage comes from — 13 of his 20 home runs allowed this year have come against left-handed hitters in 266 at-bats, against 7 in 183 to right-handers — and Arizona sends four left-handed bats to the plate tonight with two switch-hitters turning around to hit lefty against him, six of nine hitters working the exact side that's already cost him the most. Against me: three weeks doesn't erase a track record like his, and Arizona is hitting .232 as a team against right-handers this year, not a lineup built to blitz anybody on paper — most of the risk here comes from a handful of hot individual bats rather than a deep lineup effect. Two earned runs is also a number a lot of perfectly fine starts still clear, which is exactly why it's priced at -179 instead of even money. I'm on it anyway, because the specific mismatch — his fly-ball, lefty-vulnerable profile against this particular lineup in this particular park — is the same one that's already produced seven home runs allowed in his last eleven and a third innings.

  ×

  Gerrit Cole
  Pitcher Earned Runs over 1.5

  -179 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  New York Yankees

  Read Gary’s Take

  The number is 1.5 earned runs at -179 — basically asking whether Cole clears the lowest bar in the sport one more time. Over his last three starts he's been hit for 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings, a 6.48 ERA, and the start before that was a 3-run outing against Houston on August 27 — four straight turns now allowing at least three earned runs, a sharp reversal from the one run he allowed in each of his two starts before that stretch, on August 14 and August 20. He's allowed seven home runs in his last two outings alone, four against San Diego on September 6 and three more against the Mets on September 12, and that's not a coincidence: he's a fly-ball pitcher this season at a 0.59 groundout-to-airout ratio with hard contact allowed on 45.8 percent of batted balls, walking into Chase Field, a park built for that kind of contact to leave the yard. The specific issue is which side of the plate the damage comes from — 13 of his 20 home runs allowed this year have come against left-handed hitters in 266 at-bats, against 7 in 183 to right-handers — and Arizona sends four left-handed bats to the plate tonight with two switch-hitters turning around to hit lefty against him, six of nine hitters working the exact side that's already cost him the most.

  Against me: three weeks doesn't erase a track record like his, and Arizona is hitting .232 as a team against right-handers this year, not a lineup built to blitz anybody on paper — most of the risk here comes from a handful of hot individual bats rather than a deep lineup effect. Two earned runs is also a number a lot of perfectly fine starts still clear, which is exactly why it's priced at -179 instead of even money. I'm on it anyway, because the specific mismatch — his fly-ball, lefty-vulnerable profile against this particular lineup in this particular park — is the same one that's already produced seven home runs allowed in his last eleven and a third innings.

• THE LONG SHOT

  NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

  MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +660

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is a longshot swing at +660 on Arenado going deep, and I'm taking it because two separate signals line up at once. The recent form is real: five home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week alone, hitting .400 (8-for-20) with a 1.428 OPS over that stretch, including a homer in his most recent game, Wednesday against Miami. The specific matchup has history behind it too — Arenado has gone 10-for-22 with three home runs in his career at-bats against Gerrit Cole, well ahead of the .243 average he's carrying against everyone else this season. Add a pitcher who has already allowed 20 home runs in 20 starts this year, working in a park built for the ball to carry, and the price looks generous next to what's actually lining up in front of it. Against me: 22 career at-bats is a small sample to lean on this heavily, and even a hitter running this hot is still an underdog to leave the yard in any single game — his season rate works out to roughly one home run every five or six games. Cole is also still missing bats at right around a strikeout an inning even in a rough stretch, and an 0-for-4 with nothing hit hard is the more likely single outcome on any given night. I'm making this my one shot on the home run board tonight anyway, because a red-hot recent power surge and a strong specific history against this exact pitcher rarely converge this cleanly.

  ×

  Nolan Arenado
  HR over 0.5

  +660 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Arizona Diamondbacks

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is a longshot swing at +660 on Arenado going deep, and I'm taking it because two separate signals line up at once. The recent form is real: five home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week alone, hitting .400 (8-for-20) with a 1.428 OPS over that stretch, including a homer in his most recent game, Wednesday against Miami. The specific matchup has history behind it too — Arenado has gone 10-for-22 with three home runs in his career at-bats against Gerrit Cole, well ahead of the .243 average he's carrying against everyone else this season. Add a pitcher who has already allowed 20 home runs in 20 starts this year, working in a park built for the ball to carry, and the price looks generous next to what's actually lining up in front of it.

  Against me: 22 career at-bats is a small sample to lean on this heavily, and even a hitter running this hot is still an underdog to leave the yard in any single game — his season rate works out to roughly one home run every five or six games. Cole is also still missing bats at right around a strikeout an inning even in a rough stretch, and an 0-for-4 with nothing hit hard is the more likely single outcome on any given night. I'm making this my one shot on the home run board tonight anyway, because a red-hot recent power surge and a strong specific history against this exact pitcher rarely converge this cleanly.

• GARY'S PICK

  AMED ROSARIOH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

  MLBNew York Yankees· -134

  LOST · ACTUAL 3

  GARY'S TAKE

  Rosario's number is 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs at -134, and the shape of his last fifteen games makes the case on its own: ten of them he's produced zero across all three categories combined, with the rest coming in isolated bursts of two, three, or four. Tonight he runs into the tougher half of his own platoon split — Eduardo Rodriguez throws left-handed, and Rosario has hit .200 with a .602 OPS against left-handers this season compared to .297 and .851 against right-handers, close to two different hitters depending on who's on the mound. He's in the lineup at third base specifically as the right-handed half of that platoon, with the left-handed-hitting Ryan McMahon sitting tonight, but the matchup that earns him the start is the same one that's produced a .125 average and a 1-for-8 stretch over his last fifteen days. Against me: the Yankees are scoring 5.3 runs a game in September, one of their best offensive months of the season, and with traffic on the bases in front of him, one well-timed base hit clears 1.5 in a single swing — he still has some pop even against lefties, five home runs in 140 at-bats this year. But the bar here is low enough that both his recent form and the platoon disadvantage point the same way, so I'll take the under.

  ×

  Amed Rosario
  H+R+RBI under 1.5

  -134 · LOST · ACTUAL 3

  New York Yankees

  Read Gary’s Take

  Rosario's number is 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs at -134, and the shape of his last fifteen games makes the case on its own: ten of them he's produced zero across all three categories combined, with the rest coming in isolated bursts of two, three, or four. Tonight he runs into the tougher half of his own platoon split — Eduardo Rodriguez throws left-handed, and Rosario has hit .200 with a .602 OPS against left-handers this season compared to .297 and .851 against right-handers, close to two different hitters depending on who's on the mound. He's in the lineup at third base specifically as the right-handed half of that platoon, with the left-handed-hitting Ryan McMahon sitting tonight, but the matchup that earns him the start is the same one that's produced a .125 average and a 1-for-8 stretch over his last fifteen days.

  Against me: the Yankees are scoring 5.3 runs a game in September, one of their best offensive months of the season, and with traffic on the bases in front of him, one well-timed base hit clears 1.5 in a single swing — he still has some pop even against lefties, five home runs in 140 at-bats this year. But the bar here is low enough that both his recent form and the platoon disadvantage point the same way, so I'll take the under.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.