Yankees at Padres
O/U 7.5 · RL Padres -1.5 · Petco Park
The line
BETMGM · 11 moves| Market | Opened Sep 5 5:01 AM | Close Sep 5 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Padres +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (-102) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Padres -115 | Padres -225 | −110 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 5 5:01 AM | Padres +1.5 (-190) | — | Padres -115 · Yankees -105 |
| Sep 5 11:18 AM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 1:10 PM | Padres -1.5 (+165) | — | Padres -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 1:55 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -135 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 2:50 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 3:41 PM | Padres -1.5 (+165) | — | Padres -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 3:50 PM | Padres -1.5 (+165) | — | Padres -135 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 4:20 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -135 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 4:53 PM | Padres -1.5 (+165) | — | Padres -135 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 5:41 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | — | Padres -135 · Yankees +110 |
| Sep 5 6:30 PM | Padres -1.5 (+165) | — | Padres -135 · Yankees +110 |
| CLOSESep 5 7:30 PM | Padres -1.5 (-102) | — | Padres -225 · Yankees +180 |
The read
I see this as close enough to an even game to take the plus money. San Diego starts seven right-handed hitters, and Rodón has allowed righties a .553 OPS in 159 at-bats. That matchup carries my decision. Tatis and France are substantial threats, but I expect Rodón’s effectiveness against righties to keep San Diego’s advantage smaller than its price suggests.
Goldschmidt gives New York a specific opening against Ray: a 1.005 OPS and 11 homers in 144 at-bats against lefties. Ramos also has an .825 OPS against lefties in 85 at-bats. Ray has surrendered a right-handed homer in each of his Padres starts, and his last three starts included eight walks. His recent 2.08 ERA deserves respect, but those walks and home runs give tonight’s Yankees lineup a credible way to damage him.
Rodón’s recent short starts make the relief plan essential. Headrick last pitched September 1 and has a 1.93 ERA over 70.0 innings. Schreiber also last worked September 1. Blackburn threw seven pitches yesterday and Bednar 14. Those individual workloads support my expectation that New York can cover the important innings after Rodón without needing another extended appearance from Warren.
The strongest argument against this ticket is Ray’s recent ability to work deeper. The wind blowing in from left field also works against the home-run opportunity I’m identifying. San Diego’s bullpen remains a serious obstacle: Morejon threw 14 pitches yesterday, and Miller’s two innings required 22. I am allowing for both to pitch tonight. This is a modest price edge, with meaningful advantages still on the Padres’ side.
My working assumption is that Rodón provides enough effective innings to reach that relief plan and that New York’s key relievers can handle their usual assignments. The supplied workloads support that expectation; their actual availability remains unresolved. A confirmed declaration that Bednar cannot pitch would make me reconsider the ticket, because Rodón’s recent length makes that closing option especially important.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
BATTER VS ARM
Xander Bogaerts vs Carlos Rodon: .429
.429Bogaerts’ recent form is cold, but he has consistently seen Rodon well and owns a .429 mark in the matchup. That familiarity gives me confidence he can produce better at-bats tonight.
PLATOON EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
1.005Goldschmidt gets his preferred matchup against a left-hander from the leadoff spot. That placement maximizes his chances to pressure Ray and start New York’s offense immediately.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of NYY @ SD
NRFII’m watching the NRFI in Yankees-Padres. Both starters have a path through the dangerous bats, setting up a clean first before the better scoring chances arrive later.
RUNNING GAME
New York Yankees like to run — Freddy Fermin (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
32% CSThe Yankees may like to run, but Fermin’s 32% caught-stealing rate makes this a poor matchup for blind aggression. One bad attempt could erase valuable traffic in what projects as a tight game.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Petco Park tonight
IN 10A 10 mph wind blowing in at Petco takes some of the reward away from deep contact, especially toward left. I expect line drives, ground-ball pressure and execution with runners aboard to matter more than raw power tonight.
STREAK
NYY games have gone OVER 5 straight
O5Five straight Yankees games have gone over, and those games have cleared expectations decisively. A lower number in San Diego gives that scoring pattern a reasonable chance to continue.
REGRESSION
Robbie Ray: 3.14 ERA vs 4.63 xERA
4.63Ray’s 3.14 ERA has outpaced a 4.63 expected mark, and neither his WHIP nor strikeout rate provides much protection from regression. The Yankees are well positioned to push those surface results in the wrong direction tonight.
Luis Campusano: .283 AVG vs .240 xBA
.240Campusano has squeezed more production from his contact than I expect him to sustain. Against the Yankees, his hit-market under is the side I prefer.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored September 5, 2026 at 8:24 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKGEORGE LOMBARD JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I need Lombard to contribute only one hit, run or RBI, and he has cleared this line in 11 of his last 15 games. The price is heavy, but batting sixth should still give him close to four trips against a pitcher whose clearest weakness is right-handed damage.
Ray has allowed 19 home runs and a .715 OPS to right-handed hitters. His fastball and sinker have also produced elevated expected damage, giving Lombard multiple ways to reach safely or drive in a runner. Lombard's .308 average and .862 OPS against lefties come from a small sample, but they support the matchup rather than carrying the bet by themselves.
- GARY'S PICKPAUL GOLDSCHMIDTWALKS UNDER 0.5
Goldschmidt has gone without a walk in 12 of his last 15 games and averages only 0.3 walks per game this season. His leadoff assignment adds a potential plate appearance, but his advantage against left-handed pitching gives him reason to attack rather than wait Ray out.
Ray's walk rate is the concern, especially after issuing eight over his last three starts. Still, with Bellinger, Rosario and Rice behind Goldschmidt, pitching around him is unlikely to be the preferred plan. I expect competitive pitches and another game without a free pass.
- THE LONG SHOTPAUL GOLDSCHMIDTHR OVER 0.5
Goldschmidt is my long shot because this matchup gives him both opportunity and a clean power path. He owns a 1.005 OPS with 11 home runs in 144 at-bats against left-handed pitching, and batting first maximizes his chance to see Ray more than once.
Ray has allowed 19 home runs to right-handed batters and has surrendered one to a righty in each of his five starts with San Diego. His four-seam fastball and sinker have been his most damage-prone offerings, which suits Goldschmidt's pull power. Petco Park and the wind coming in from left field lower the ceiling, but +492 pays enough for me to take that risk.
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