Rays at Yankees
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees ML -168
- Published odds
- -168
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 4-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 13 moves| Market | Opened Oct 6 5:00 AM | Close Oct 7 7:45 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-120) | 7 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -165 | Yankees -175 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 6 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+145) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -165 · Rays +135 |
| Oct 6 3:31 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+140) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -165 · Rays +135 |
| Oct 7 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+140) | 7.5 (+105) | Yankees -165 · Rays +135 |
| Oct 7 9:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -165 · Rays +135 |
| Oct 7 12:00 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -170 · Rays +140 |
| Oct 7 12:50 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -165 · Rays +135 |
| Oct 7 1:24 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -170 · Rays +140 |
| Oct 7 3:20 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -175 · Rays +145 |
| Oct 7 3:39 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+130) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -175 · Rays +145 |
| Oct 7 4:10 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -175 · Rays +145 |
| Oct 7 4:35 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-120) | Yankees -170 · Rays +140 |
| Oct 7 5:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-115) | Yankees -170 · Rays +140 |
| Oct 7 7:04 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-115) | Yankees -175 · Rays +145 |
| CLOSEOct 7 7:45 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 7 (-110) | Yankees -175 · Rays +145 |
The read
The Yankees' season is on the line in the Bronx. The Rays lead 2-0 and can clinch on the same field where they celebrated the division title two weeks ago, and the Yankees give the ball to Max Fried to keep the series alive. I'm taking the Yankees because tonight is the first game of this series where the pitching matchup favors them. Rasmussen at his best, then Peralta and Seymour, held them to two runs in 18 innings. Tonight they face Nick Martinez, whose 3.10 ERA sits well below his 3.98 xERA. He leans fly ball (0.67 GO/AO), and lefties hit 13 of the 22 home runs he allowed. He comes in off a 2.2-inning, 4-run, 50-pitch start and nine full days off, and this is his first postseason start.
Boone puts six lefties against him in a park with a 314-foot right-field line. Martinez throws his sinker more than any other pitch, and it has given up a .356 xwOBA. Rice (.377), Bellinger (.377) and García (.360) all hit sinkers well, and Rice has a .961 OPS against righties. Grisham and Bellinger did almost nothing at the Trop, and both are much better at home: Grisham .844 at home against .574 on the road, Bellinger .919 against .628.
Fried has the stronger underlying profile of the two starters: a 2.51 xERA, a 2.4% barrel rate allowed, and a 1.81 ERA in 7 career starts against Tampa Bay. Against a lefty, the Rays lineup gets soft after the top five: Hicks has a .516 OPS against lefties, Palacios .478 and Walls .541. Over their last 30 games the Rays have a .633 OPS against left-handed starters. Caminero (.916 against lefties) can beat Fried, and Fried's last home start against this team, 6.2 innings with 4 earned runs, is a real warning. The Rays also have Baker and Booser rested, and a loss costs them little because Rasmussen pitches tomorrow anyway. But in an elimination game Boone has no reason to save any arm, and the gap between these two starters is the biggest edge in this game. I'm taking the home team to extend the series.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Nick Martinez: 5.27 ERA over his last 3 starts
5.27Martinez has a 5.27 ERA over his last three starts, only 13.2 innings, and his WHIP is 1.39 in that span against 1.09 for the season. More runners are reaching, which is how a 3.10 season ERA turns into rough outings. Three starts is a short stretch, so this can settle back. Against the Yankees, track the early baserunner traffic, since that lineup punishes extra runners.
HEAT CHECK
George Lombard Jr.: .885 OPS in Last 15 Days
.885Lombard Jr. has a .885 OPS over the last 15 days in 46 AB, up 0.186 on his .699 season mark. That is a moderate jump over two weeks, and a .699 hitter usually drifts back toward his baseline. His total-bases line tonight is 0.5, so one hit cashes it, and the season mark is the steadier guide to how often that happens.
Ben Rice: 1.041 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.041Rice has a 1.041 OPS in 43 AB over the last 15 days, against a .897 season mark, a 0.144 swing. The jump is modest because the baseline is already high, and 41 home runs on the season say this is close to who he is. His total-bases line tonight is 1.5, and with that kind of power, one extra-base hit gets him there.
COOLING OFF
Luis Garcia Jr.: .276 OPS in Last 15 Days
.276Garcia Jr. has barely reached base or hit for power over his last 35 at-bats, a .276 OPS against .831 for the season. That 0.555 drop comes from a short stretch for a hitter who has been well above average all year. Slumps this deep over so few at-bats usually drift back toward the season line. In TB at NYY, his .831 is the better guide to his props than the cold two weeks.
Yandy Diaz: .450 OPS in Last 15 Days
.450Diaz has a .450 OPS across his last 40 at-bats, well off his .805 season mark, a 0.355 gap. Forty AB is a small window, and the full season says he is a productive hitter in a cold patch. Gaps like this tend to close as at-bats pile up. In TB at NYY, the season line is the better guide, with the recent dip as a reason for some caution on short-term props.
FIRST INNING
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10NYY scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Max Fried: 3.15 ERA, .214 opponent AVG across 20.0 IP, 1 HR; Nick Martinez: 1.74 ERA, .195 opponent AVG across 31.0 IP, 2 HR.
BALLPARK
Max Fried's ERA jumps to 3.42 at Yankee Stadium
3.42Fried's ERA at Yankee Stadium is 3.42 against 2.34 elsewhere, yet hitters bat just .196 against him there. That points to the park adding damage on a few carried balls or clustered runs more than a pitcher getting hit hard. Nine starts and 47.1 innings is a modest sample, and a .196 average allowed supports an ERA closer to his road number. Against Tampa Bay, weigh the weak contact over the venue ERA.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Rays are 7-6 vs Yankees this season
7-6Tampa Bay has one more win than New York across 13 meetings, close to a coin flip. The sheet has nothing on the arms, the parks or the margins, and the Yankees won the most recent game 6-4. A 7-6 split between division rivals has little hold on tonight, so the pitching matchup is the better guide.
REGRESSION
Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games (.641 win rate)
25-14Tampa Bay Rays are 25-14 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (39 completed games). They are 73-50 in their other 123 completed games.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 7, 2026 at 1:24 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, caesars, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKNICK MARTINEZPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 3.5
Nick Martinez over 3.5 hits allowed at -155. This number is low because the market expects Kevin Cash to have a quick hook, and the pitcher outs line at 12.5 says the same thing. Even with a short outing, Martinez gives up contact by design. He has averaged five and a half hits per start this season, he does not miss many bats, and his last three starts averaged close to six hits. Cash describes him as a pitcher who goes after early-count soft contact and trusts his defense. That means a lot of balls in play even over four innings. His sinker is the pitch he throws most, and it is also the pitch hitters have done the most damage against all season.
Tonight he faces six left-handed bats in a park with a 314-foot right-field line. His swing-and-miss has been trending down over his recent starts. His last time out, the Phillies collected seven hits off him in under three innings, and now he has been off for nine days. New York also has a different look tonight: Volpe and Caballero are in the lineup, and Grisham and Bellinger are back in the Bronx, where both hit far better than they did at the Trop. I already have the Yankees winning this game, and if they win, they are getting to Martinez.
The case against this is real. The Yankees have been close to helpless in this series, with one hit in Game 1 and six in Game 2. Martinez also handled them in this building on September 22, allowing five hits over six innings. If Cash pulls him the first time through the order, four hits becomes a tough ask. I still like a contact pitcher against this lineup in this park to get there.
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