Yankees at Twins

Afternoon baseball at Target Field, with the Yankees looking to finish the sweep and the Twins trying to stop it. I’m backing New York because the lineup matchup and bullpen usage give this favorite support beyond its winning streak. Matthews has allowed an .806 OPS to left-handed hitters, and the Yankees’ confirmed order puts left-handed bats throughout the lineup. Minnesota’s concentration of right-handed hitters offers less reassurance against Rodón, who has allowed a .538 OPS to that side. Those splits describe past results, but their alignment with today’s confirmed batting orders makes them relevant to this particular game. The relief setup reinforces that read. Fried worked 7.0 innings yesterday, and Yarbrough covered 2.0, keeping New York’s other relievers out of that game. Minnesota used Rogers, Gómez and Morris behind its starter. That establishes a lighter burden on the Yankees’ remaining bullpen yesterday, although it does not establish every arm’s availability today. New York’s offense also enters averaging 5.5 runs per game over its last ten, compared with Minnesota’s 2.8. That supports the lineup case, with the understanding that the first two games of this series already contribute to those figures. I’m counting that recent scoring once. The strongest argument against my pick is Rodón’s control: 35 walks in 70.1 innings gives Minnesota a credible way to create scoring chances without repeatedly hitting him hard. Matthews’ 1.27 WHIP also cautions against treating his 4.98 ERA as a promise of constant traffic. A competitive Matthews outing and poorly timed walks from Rodón could turn this game toward Minnesota. I’m taking New York anyway because the handedness matchup and yesterday’s relief usage provide separate support for the favorite. This is a judgment about the combined matchup, and I’m willing to pay -152 for the Yankees to win outright.