Sports Picks Archive — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· +136

Afternoon baseball at Busch Stadium, with the Giants and Cardinals settling a split series. St. Louis gets the favorite’s billing, but I’m taking San Francisco at +136 because the starting matchup gives this underdog a credible route to taking control. The Cardinals’ starter carries a 5.53 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, with 27 home runs allowed in 143.1 IP. Those are season results, not a prediction of another rough outing. But they describe substantial vulnerability over a meaningful sample, and I don’t see enough protection elsewhere in this matchup to justify backing St. Louis at -162. The Giants’ second hitter supplies a specific reason to trust their offensive opportunity: an .880 OPS against left-handed pitching in 118 AB. The opposing starter has allowed an .832 OPS to left-handed hitters, so this matchup offers more encouragement than an automatic assumption that a lefty neutralizes a left-handed bat. That is supporting evidence for this particular lineup, without pretending one hitter settles the game. The hot afternoon and wind blowing toward center add another consideration for a starter whose home-run allowance is already substantial. Those conditions help both offenses, but they reinforce the importance of that vulnerability. The strongest argument against San Francisco is the Cardinals’ middle-of-the-order production against right-handed pitching, backed by principal late-inning relievers who sat out yesterday. The Giants’ starter also has a 5.24 ERA in just 22.1 IP; his lower WHIP does not establish a dependable pitching advantage. That keeps my confidence modest. Still, San Francisco’s principal closing option also sat out yesterday, leaving a plausible relief path if the offense establishes a lead. My call is that the Giants generate enough damage against the starting pitching to put that path into play. At +136, I’m backing that outcome despite St. Louis’ credible offensive counterargument.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs White Sox· -164

Afternoon baseball at Progressive Field, and this White Sox–Guardians series comes down to the finale. I’m backing Cleveland at -164, with the starting-pitching matchup and Cleveland’s batting-order fit carrying the decision. Anthony Kay has allowed an .862 OPS to right-handed hitters, and the Guardians start six right-handed or switch-hitting bats against him. Parker Messick, meanwhile, has held right-handed hitters to a .568 OPS. Those results don’t settle individual at-bats, but they give Cleveland a specific matchup advantage beyond simply having the starter with the better ERA. Recent outings reinforce that advantage. Messick has completed at least 5 innings in each of his last 5 starts; Kay failed to complete 5 in 4 of his last 5. That gives me more confidence in Cleveland’s starting innings, although the bullpen still has to handle its share. Cade Smith’s 2.13 ERA supports the late-inning case, without assuming every reliever is fully rested after Tuesday. Cleveland has also scored 4.8 runs per game over its last ten against Chicago’s 4.2. That recent production matters because the Guardians need to contribute offensively to justify this price. The strongest argument against Cleveland is Chicago’s offense against left-handed pitching, particularly Randal Grichuk’s .989 OPS and Miguel Vargas’s .963 OPS in that split. Messick’s aggregate success against righties doesn’t erase those individual results. Kay also just delivered 6.0 innings with 2 earned runs allowed, so his recent struggles are no guarantee of another short outing. Chicago has a credible path through a competitive start and timely offense. I still judge Cleveland’s combination of starter performance, batting-order fit against Kay, and late-inning pitching strong enough to justify -164. Chicago’s offensive threat keeps my confidence measured, but the matchup evidence carries me to the Guardians moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· +112

The series finale is set at Rogers Centre, with Detroit chasing the sweep and Toronto looking to answer back. I’m taking Detroit at +112, and the strongest reason is how its confirmed lineup matches Scherzer’s results against left-handed hitters. He has allowed an .848 OPS to lefties compared with .624 to righties. Kevin McGonigle, Colt Keith and Riley Greene give Detroit left-handed bats throughout the upper part of the order, with Max Clark and Brett Callahan adding more. That matchup gives me a concrete reason to back the underdog beyond simply comparing the starters’ ERAs. Montero’s 1.03 WHIP against Scherzer’s 1.37 strengthens that read: Detroit’s starter has allowed fewer baserunners, and Toronto’s right-handed hitters face his stronger season split. Montero has allowed a .570 OPS to righties versus .672 to lefties. Detroit’s recent offensive results also have some support in the quality of its contact. Over the last three games, its hard-hit rate was 39.0%, compared with Toronto’s 25.6%. That is a small sample, so it supports the current form without establishing a new offensive baseline. The series has included a close Detroit win and a blowout; today’s pitching and lineup matchup carry more weight for me than the opportunity to finish a sweep. The strongest argument against Detroit is Toronto keeping the game close behind Scherzer and then turning to Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers. Neither pitched yesterday, so the Blue Jays have a plausible late-inning answer despite the work demanded of other relievers. Detroit also has to account for Kyle Finnegan’s consecutive appearances. But Tyler Holton and Kenley Jansen were unused yesterday, giving the Tigers their own potential route through the closing innings. I respect Toronto’s bullpen counterargument. At +112, though, Detroit’s lineup fit and Montero’s lower baserunner allowance outweigh it for me.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· -152

Afternoon baseball at Target Field, with the Yankees looking to finish the sweep and the Twins trying to stop it. I’m backing New York because the lineup matchup and bullpen usage give this favorite support beyond its winning streak. Matthews has allowed an .806 OPS to left-handed hitters, and the Yankees’ confirmed order puts left-handed bats throughout the lineup. Minnesota’s concentration of right-handed hitters offers less reassurance against Rodón, who has allowed a .538 OPS to that side. Those splits describe past results, but their alignment with today’s confirmed batting orders makes them relevant to this particular game. The relief setup reinforces that read. Fried worked 7.0 innings yesterday, and Yarbrough covered 2.0, keeping New York’s other relievers out of that game. Minnesota used Rogers, Gómez and Morris behind its starter. That establishes a lighter burden on the Yankees’ remaining bullpen yesterday, although it does not establish every arm’s availability today. New York’s offense also enters averaging 5.5 runs per game over its last ten, compared with Minnesota’s 2.8. That supports the lineup case, with the understanding that the first two games of this series already contribute to those figures. I’m counting that recent scoring once. The strongest argument against my pick is Rodón’s control: 35 walks in 70.1 innings gives Minnesota a credible way to create scoring chances without repeatedly hitting him hard. Matthews’ 1.27 WHIP also cautions against treating his 4.98 ERA as a promise of constant traffic. A competitive Matthews outing and poorly timed walks from Rodón could turn this game toward Minnesota. I’m taking New York anyway because the handedness matchup and yesterday’s relief usage provide separate support for the favorite. This is a judgment about the combined matchup, and I’m willing to pay -152 for the Yankees to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· +108

Tonight at Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati gets another shot at Los Angeles after dropping the opening games of this series. I’m taking Dodgers ML -215, with the starting-pitching matchup carrying the decision. Snell has allowed no more than one earned run in each of his last five starts; Abbott has surrendered seven earned runs in two of his last five. Abbott’s 1.46 WHIP and 24 home runs allowed give me concern beyond those isolated blowups. My read is that Los Angeles has the more dependable foundation for reaching the relief innings ahead, although Snell’s seven-start season keeps my conviction in check. Cincinnati’s strongest counterargument is specific to tonight: Elly De La Cruz owns a 1.080 OPS against left-handers, and Sal Stewart follows him with an .883 OPS in that matchup. That gives the Reds consecutive hitters with demonstrated production against tonight’s pitching handedness. Burke and Pagán also have two days off, while Scott pitched yesterday. Cincinnati has a credible route through timely offense and rested late-inning options. I give those advantages real weight. However, Snell has held right-handed hitters to a .453 OPS, making it difficult to treat Cincinnati’s lineup construction as an automatic advantage against this particular lefty. The price demands restraint. Snell’s 2.1 xERA alongside his 1.91 ERA supports paying for the underlying performance; the market does not appear to be charging for an obviously fragile ERA. That informs my assessment of the price without promising another dominant start tonight. Los Angeles also has Scott and Vesia, each carrying a 2.87 ERA, to support him, and Scott’s appearance yesterday alone does not establish unavailability. I judge Cincinnati’s bullpen rest advantage and favorable individual hitting splits insufficient to outweigh the starting-pitching separation. At -215, this is a modest-edge judgment, with enough confidence in Los Angeles winning to take the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -180

Under the dome at Tropicana Field, the Athletics and Rays meet again after Tuesday’s tight opener. I’m backing Tampa Bay because tonight’s lineup matchup and late-inning pitching give it two connected advantages. Basso faces seven right-handed starters after allowing righties a .301 average and .803 OPS. That sample covers only 93 at-bats, so it deserves restraint, but Díaz’s .857 OPS against lefties and Caminero’s .938 OPS strengthen the offensive case. Those are specific reasons to like this starting nine against this starter. The other piece is how the pitching responsibilities could fall. Martinez has completed at least six innings in four consecutive outings, while Basso’s recent appearances have topped out at four innings. That makes a longer relief assignment for the Athletics plausible, even if Basso pitches effectively. Kelly carries a 2.48 ERA and Baker a 1.52 ERA; their Tuesday appearances required 12 and seven pitches, respectively. Those modest workloads support Tampa Bay’s late-game options. Across the field, Harris has a 3.38 ERA and Alvarado a 4.14 ERA. My read is that Tampa Bay has the stronger route through the innings after its starter exits. The strongest objection is paying -180 when the starting-pitching gap may be smaller than it looks. Martinez’s 2.92 ERA against a 4.08 xERA raises the risk that the market is paying too much for a fragile headline number. Basso has also delivered consecutive scoreless appearances, and Langeliers’ .529 slugging percentage against sinkers supplies a concrete offensive counterargument against Martinez’s most-used pitch. Those are legitimate reasons for caution, without forecasting regression tonight. I still give the Rays’ lineup matchup and relief advantage more weight. Together, they make me willing to lay this price, with measured confidence rather than treating Tampa Bay as an automatic winner.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Nationals· -196

It’s the series finale at Nationals Park, with Washington looking to finish the sweep and Philadelphia handing the ball to Zack Wheeler. I’m taking Phillies ML -196 because their pitching advantage extends beyond the opening matchup into how they can finish this game. Wheeler brings a 3.14 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 143.1 innings, an established foundation against Washington’s expected bullpen game. Jared Simpson has pitched just 4.0 innings; his 6.75 ERA does not establish that he is a bad pitcher, and his 0.75 WHIP does not establish that he can contain Philadelphia. Washington’s pitching case depends substantially on the arms behind him. That relief coverage is the second piece carrying my decision. Jhoan Duran did not appear in any of Philadelphia’s last three listed games, giving the Phillies a rested late-game option if Wheeler puts them in position to use him. Washington received scoreless relief from Yovanny Cruz, Richard Lovelady, Brad Lord and Erik Tolman on Tuesday, so there is evidence that this group can get the job done. Their modest pitch counts also make an exhaustion argument unconvincing. My concern for Washington is the expected amount of relief coverage tonight: I trust Philadelphia’s combination of an established starter and an unused finishing option more than a plan requiring the bullpen to handle much of the game. The strongest argument against Philadelphia is Washington’s lineup construction. Wheeler has allowed a .710 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .555 to right-handed hitters, and the Nationals have their left-handed bats stacked up front, with CJ Abrams confirmed at cleanup. That deserves real weight, especially at a demanding favorite’s price. Philadelphia cannot treat Wheeler’s presence as a guarantee. Still, my read is that Washington’s favorable platoon alignment does not outweigh Philadelphia’s stronger pitching foundation and late-game option. I’m willing to pay -196 for that combination and back the Phillies to win outright.

That relief coverage is the second piece carrying my decision. Jhoan Duran did not appear in any of Philadelphia’s last three listed games, giving the Phillies a rested late-game option if Wheeler puts them in position to use him. Washington received scoreless relief from Yovanny Cruz, Richard Lovelady, Brad Lord and Erik Tolman on Tuesday, so there is evidence that this group can get the job done. Their modest pitch counts also make an exhaustion argument unconvincing. My concern for Washington is the expected amount of relief coverage tonight: I trust Philadelphia’s combination of an established starter and an unused finishing option more than a plan requiring the bullpen to handle much of the game.

The strongest argument against Philadelphia is Washington’s lineup construction. Wheeler has allowed a .710 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .555 to right-handed hitters, and the Nationals have their left-handed bats stacked up front, with CJ Abrams confirmed at cleanup. That deserves real weight, especially at a demanding favorite’s price. Philadelphia cannot treat Wheeler’s presence as a guarantee. Still, my read is that Washington’s favorable platoon alignment does not outweigh Philadelphia’s stronger pitching foundation and late-game option. I’m willing to pay -196 for that combination and back the Phillies to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· -126

It’s Milwaukee at Pittsburgh under the lights at PNC Park, with Logan Henderson and Jared Jones both arriving in sharp form. I’m taking the Brewers at -126 because Henderson’s control and Milwaukee’s bullpen options give me the stronger case across the full game. Henderson has allowed 5 earned runs in 32 innings over his last five starts, with 30 strikeouts and only 4 walks. Pittsburgh’s lineup leans toward left-handed bats, but Henderson has allowed a .542 OPS to lefties and .541 to righties. That batting order offers no obvious platoon advantage against him. Jones is the strongest argument against this bet. His 2.03 ERA over his last five starts makes Pittsburgh a credible threat, and I’m giving that recent performance real weight. Milwaukee nevertheless has a specific offensive argument: Jones has allowed a .715 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .632 to right-handed hitters, while Brice Turang carries a .890 OPS against right-handed pitching. Turang, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell are all starting. Those splits support Milwaukee’s chances of generating offense against Jones, even while acknowledging how well he has pitched lately. The Brewers’ recent blowouts help describe their form, but I’m putting more weight on tonight’s lineup matchup. The bullpen comparison adds another reason to pay this price. Abner Uribe, with a 2.15 ERA, did not pitch Tuesday; his Sunday appearance required 17 pitches. Trevor Megill carries a 2.54 ERA and threw 16 pitches Tuesday. Pittsburgh used seven relief innings in the opener, including a 44-pitch appearance from Antwone Kelly. The Pirates still have a credible answer in Mason Montgomery, whose Sunday outing required only 7 pitches, so their bullpen remains part of the opposing case. I give Milwaukee a modest advantage in the combination of relief quality and recent usage. Jones keeps my confidence measured, but Henderson’s control, the lineup splits and those late options are enough for me to back the Brewers outright.

Jones is the strongest argument against this bet. His 2.03 ERA over his last five starts makes Pittsburgh a credible threat, and I’m giving that recent performance real weight. Milwaukee nevertheless has a specific offensive argument: Jones has allowed a .715 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .632 to right-handed hitters, while Brice Turang carries a .890 OPS against right-handed pitching. Turang, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell are all starting. Those splits support Milwaukee’s chances of generating offense against Jones, even while acknowledging how well he has pitched lately. The Brewers’ recent blowouts help describe their form, but I’m putting more weight on tonight’s lineup matchup.

The bullpen comparison adds another reason to pay this price. Abner Uribe, with a 2.15 ERA, did not pitch Tuesday; his Sunday appearance required 17 pitches. Trevor Megill carries a 2.54 ERA and threw 16 pitches Tuesday. Pittsburgh used seven relief innings in the opener, including a 44-pitch appearance from Antwone Kelly. The Pirates still have a credible answer in Mason Montgomery, whose Sunday outing required only 7 pitches, so their bullpen remains part of the opposing case. I give Milwaukee a modest advantage in the combination of relief quality and recent usage. Jones keeps my confidence measured, but Henderson’s control, the lineup splits and those late options are enough for me to back the Brewers outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· -162

The Royals and Astros meet again under the closed roof at Daikin Park, with Daniel Lynch IV opposing Cristian Javier. I’m backing Houston because Javier’s recent outings and the Astros’ closing options give me the stronger case across the full game. Javier has allowed two earned runs over his last two starts, covering 11 innings. That is encouraging evidence, although it remains a short stretch. Lynch’s 3.52 ERA combines relief appearances with starting assignments, and none of his seven starts has exceeded 5.0 innings. His season ERA deserves context when judging how much of tonight’s game he can control. The relief matchup carries the most weight for me. Josh Hader’s 0.85 ERA and 0.66 WHIP give Houston a convincing option to protect a late lead, while Lucas Erceg has a 6.09 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Kansas City has a stronger alternative in Nate Pearson, with a 2.36 ERA, so this is not an automatic bullpen mismatch in every inning. Still, Hader threw 13 pitches yesterday and Bryan Abreu threw seven, supporting possible consecutive-day use. Houston’s lineup supplies another relevant detail: six right-handed starters face Lynch, who has allowed a .730 OPS to righties versus .455 to lefties. That gives the Astros a credible offensive route to establishing the lead their bullpen needs. The strongest argument against Houston is Javier’s broader season: a 5.50 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, compared with Lynch’s 3.52 and 1.10. Javier has also allowed an .874 OPS to right-handed hitters, leaving Kansas City a clear opening if his recent improvement does not hold. I take that risk seriously. My judgment is that Javier’s latest work makes the starting matchup competitive enough for Houston’s relief advantage and lineup fit to carry the decision. At -162, those advantages need to be substantial. I think they are sufficient for a measured moneyline play, with Javier’s volatility keeping my confidence restrained.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· -108

Under a closed roof at Globe Life Field, the Red Sox try to square this series against a Rangers club fighting for its playoff life, with left-handers Jake Bennett and MacKenzie Gore taking the ball. The market calls it dead even at -108 both ways. I don't think it is. This is a bullpen game dressed up as a pitching matchup, and only one team brings its bullpen tonight. Gore has walked 15 in 22 innings over his last five starts and was pulled at 68 and 76 pitches in his last two. When he exits in the fourth or fifth, Texas has to cover the rest with a closer in Jacob Latz who pitched September 12, 13, and threw a 27-pitch save last night, plus Robert Garcia on three appearances in four days and Tyler Alexander on a back-to-back. Boston's answer is Aroldis Chapman at a 1.95 ERA, Garrett Whitlock at 1.81, and Erik Miller at 2.28, none of whom threw a pitch last night. Red Sox relievers have allowed five runs over their last 33 innings. Bennett has been kept around 80 pitches all year, so Boston planned for this. From the sixth inning on, the arms on the mound are simply not equal. The honest case against me is the platoon split. Bennett allows a .726 OPS and all 12 of his home runs to right-handed hitters, and Texas starts seven righties, with Justin Foscue at a 1.009 OPS against lefties, Josh Jung at .922, and Ezequiel Duran at .855. He gave up five home runs across his last two starts. Gore also owns a 3.36 home ERA against 5.79 on the road and a 1.46 ERA in two prior starts against Boston. That is a real edge and it is why this stays a moneyline play, not a run line. But Bennett has walked three batters in five starts with a 1.07 WHIP and a 3.19 road ERA, so Texas has to earn every baserunner against him, while Gore keeps handing them out to a lineup carrying Willson Contreras at a .945 OPS against lefties and Wilyer Abreu at .908. Boston's offense has been quiet at 3.2 runs a game, but a 44-32 road team with a 3.59 staff ERA against a 4.31 opponent, and the deeper rested bullpen, is worth even money. Give me the Red Sox.

This is a bullpen game dressed up as a pitching matchup, and only one team brings its bullpen tonight. Gore has walked 15 in 22 innings over his last five starts and was pulled at 68 and 76 pitches in his last two. When he exits in the fourth or fifth, Texas has to cover the rest with a closer in Jacob Latz who pitched September 12, 13, and threw a 27-pitch save last night, plus Robert Garcia on three appearances in four days and Tyler Alexander on a back-to-back. Boston's answer is Aroldis Chapman at a 1.95 ERA, Garrett Whitlock at 1.81, and Erik Miller at 2.28, none of whom threw a pitch last night. Red Sox relievers have allowed five runs over their last 33 innings. Bennett has been kept around 80 pitches all year, so Boston planned for this. From the sixth inning on, the arms on the mound are simply not equal.

The honest case against me is the platoon split. Bennett allows a .726 OPS and all 12 of his home runs to right-handed hitters, and Texas starts seven righties, with Justin Foscue at a 1.009 OPS against lefties, Josh Jung at .922, and Ezequiel Duran at .855. He gave up five home runs across his last two starts. Gore also owns a 3.36 home ERA against 5.79 on the road and a 1.46 ERA in two prior starts against Boston. That is a real edge and it is why this stays a moneyline play, not a run line. But Bennett has walked three batters in five starts with a 1.07 WHIP and a 3.19 road ERA, so Texas has to earn every baserunner against him, while Gore keeps handing them out to a lineup carrying Willson Contreras at a .945 OPS against lefties and Wilyer Abreu at .908. Boston's offense has been quiet at 3.2 runs a game, but a 44-32 road team with a 3.59 staff ERA against a 4.31 opponent, and the deeper rested bullpen, is worth even money. Give me the Red Sox.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Braves· -156

Rubber game under the lights at Wrigley, and it's a rematch nobody's talking about: Shota Imanaga and JR Ritchie squared off on May 13 in Atlanta, and tonight they do it again with the series tied 1-1. Two things carry this pick for me. First, Ritchie hasn't thrown a major-league pitch since August 2. He's walked 25 of the 127 left-handed hitters he's faced this season and allowed a .793 OPS to them, and Chicago runs five lefties at him tonight including Pete Crow-Armstrong, who owns a 1.021 OPS at home. Even in that May start where the Cubs only scored once off him, Ritchie walked three and was gone in the fifth. Second, Imanaga's one real weakness is the long ball at this park, and the wind is blowing in from left at 8 mph. He walked nobody in seven innings against this same Braves core in May, and his last two starts were 12 innings, 3 earned runs, 2 walks. The best argument against me is Atlanta's bullpen and its bats. Raisel Iglesias has 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA and only threw 15 pitches last night, Dylan Dodd is fresh with a 2.38 ERA, and Acuña, Albies, and Baldwin all left the yard yesterday. Imanaga's home and night ERAs sit above 4.00 on real samples. I hear it. But to hand a lead to Iglesias and Dodd, Atlanta has to bridge four or five innings after a short Ritchie start, and AJ Smith-Shawver already threw five innings Monday. That leaves Ray Kerr, Brent Suter, Dylan Lee, and Victor Mederos in the middle, and Lee and Mederos combined for seven earned runs without recording three outs on Saturday. Chicago's pen is nothing special, but only Edward Cabrera carried a heavy load last night, and the Cubs' offense at 5.3 runs a game doesn't need much help against a starter who gives away free bases. Ritchie's ERA is also outrunning his expected numbers by more than half a run, which tells me the market is paying for a fragile number on the Atlanta side. That's context for the price, not tonight's verdict. The verdict is a rested, proven lefty who's handled this lineup before against a rookie coming off six weeks in Triple-A into the wrong platoon matchup on the road. Cubs on the moneyline.

The best argument against me is Atlanta's bullpen and its bats. Raisel Iglesias has 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA and only threw 15 pitches last night, Dylan Dodd is fresh with a 2.38 ERA, and Acuña, Albies, and Baldwin all left the yard yesterday. Imanaga's home and night ERAs sit above 4.00 on real samples. I hear it. But to hand a lead to Iglesias and Dodd, Atlanta has to bridge four or five innings after a short Ritchie start, and AJ Smith-Shawver already threw five innings Monday. That leaves Ray Kerr, Brent Suter, Dylan Lee, and Victor Mederos in the middle, and Lee and Mederos combined for seven earned runs without recording three outs on Saturday. Chicago's pen is nothing special, but only Edward Cabrera carried a heavy load last night, and the Cubs' offense at 5.3 runs a game doesn't need much help against a starter who gives away free bases.

Ritchie's ERA is also outrunning his expected numbers by more than half a run, which tells me the market is paying for a fragile number on the Atlanta side. That's context for the price, not tonight's verdict. The verdict is a rested, proven lefty who's handled this lineup before against a rookie coming off six weeks in Triple-A into the wrong platoon matchup on the road. Cubs on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rockies· -166

The wild card chase rolls into the thin air of Coors Field, where the Padres send Robbie Ray against Rockies rookie Mason Adams in the rubber game of a series that has already produced 27 runs in two nights. I am on the Padres, and the pick starts with the sixth inning. Adams has not gone past five innings in any of his four big-league starts, and everything behind him is a problem. Jordan Romano carries a 5.16 ERA, Juan Mejia 5.48, Jaden Hill 5.80 and Jimmy Herget 6.00, and Ryan Feltner, the one arm who could eat innings, threw five of them last night. Adams himself has allowed hard contact on 58.7 percent of balls in play with his sinker hit at a .438 clip, and that is exactly the pitch Ty France and Tatis Jr. punish, with expected wOBA marks of .424 against sinkers and .421 against four-seamers on large samples. San Diego's hitters have also posted a 40.9 percent hard-hit rate over the last three games with the better plate discipline of the two clubs. The back end tilts the same way. Mason Miller at a 1.12 ERA with 37 saves, Bradgley Rodriguez at 2.38 and Adrian Morejon at 2.87 all had light pitch counts Tuesday and are ready. Colorado, meanwhile, is without Hunter Goodman for the second straight game after Monday's thumb injury, and Braxton Fulford, hitting .174, catches in his place. That is a fresh downgrade to the one lineup spot that could have punished Ray's slider and sinker. The case against is real and I am not pretending otherwise. Ray has walked four and allowed five runs in each of his last two starts, his fastball and sinker carry expected wOBA marks above .400, he has surrendered 19 homers to right-handers, and Colorado stacks righties against him at a park that punishes fly balls. His 4.84 xERA against a 3.57 ERA says the market is paying for a fragile number, and if he exits early, Wandy Peralta and Randy Vásquez are on back-to-backs after getting shelled. I take the Padres anyway because Ray's wobble is a reason to fear the total, not the winner. He held Colorado to a 3.00 ERA in three starts this year, and every stage of this game after the fifth inning belongs to San Diego. At -166 this needs to hit about 62 percent of the time, and a rested elite bullpen against a rookie capped at five innings and a pen full of 5.00 ERAs clears that bar.

The back end tilts the same way. Mason Miller at a 1.12 ERA with 37 saves, Bradgley Rodriguez at 2.38 and Adrian Morejon at 2.87 all had light pitch counts Tuesday and are ready. Colorado, meanwhile, is without Hunter Goodman for the second straight game after Monday's thumb injury, and Braxton Fulford, hitting .174, catches in his place. That is a fresh downgrade to the one lineup spot that could have punished Ray's slider and sinker.

The case against is real and I am not pretending otherwise. Ray has walked four and allowed five runs in each of his last two starts, his fastball and sinker carry expected wOBA marks above .400, he has surrendered 19 homers to right-handers, and Colorado stacks righties against him at a park that punishes fly balls. His 4.84 xERA against a 3.57 ERA says the market is paying for a fragile number, and if he exits early, Wandy Peralta and Randy Vásquez are on back-to-backs after getting shelled. I take the Padres anyway because Ray's wobble is a reason to fear the total, not the winner. He held Colorado to a 3.00 ERA in three starts this year, and every stage of this game after the fifth inning belongs to San Diego. At -166 this needs to hit about 62 percent of the time, and a rested elite bullpen against a rookie capped at five innings and a pen full of 5.00 ERAs clears that bar.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -118

Citi Field, game three, and the Orioles are one win from a sweep while Pete Alonso keeps taking curtain calls in the visitors' dugout. Baltimore hands the ball to Chris Bassitt, and the Mets counter with Xzavion Curry, a reliever making an emergency start after Robert Stock hit the injured list this afternoon. My pick rides on one thing: this Mets lineup was built to hit Chris Bassitt. New York runs out five left-handed bats plus Francisco Lindor from the left side, and Bassitt has allowed an .888 OPS to lefties over 212 at-bats this season against a .685 OPS to righties. His most-used pitch is a sinker at 37.9 percent usage with a .377 xwOBA, and Juan Soto, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, and Lindor all post .335 or better xwOBA against sinkers this year. Soto carries a 1.000 OPS against right-handers and a 1.017 OPS at home. Bassitt has been steadier since coming back in August, but he has also walked 14 in 34 innings over that stretch, and walks plus lefties plus sinkers is how innings turn into crooked numbers. On the other side, Baltimore's lineup against a righty is at its weakest: Coby Mayo hits .170 with a .551 OPS against right-handers over 241 at-bats, Christian Encarnacion-Strand sits at .621, and Jackson Holliday and Leody Taveras are not in tonight's order. Alonso is the one bat I fear, with a .486 xwOBA against four-seamers, but one hitter does not carry nine innings. The best argument against me is obvious: Curry has never thrown more than 62 pitches in a big-league game this year, and the Mets lost Daniel Duarte and his 2.12 ERA to the injured list today with Senga and Pintaro on back-to-back days. That is a real hole from the fifth inning on. I took the Mets anyway because Baltimore's pen is not fresh either. They used seven relievers in Tuesday's 11-inning game, Grant Wolfram has pitched three of the last four days, and Rico Garcia is on a back-to-back. Both teams are bullpen-vulnerable tonight, so the game gets decided by which lineup fits the opposing starter, and that is the Mets by a wide margin. At -118 the market is treating this as a coin flip. I see a home team with a specific, large-sample matchup edge against a pitcher whose arsenal plays into its hands.

My pick rides on one thing: this Mets lineup was built to hit Chris Bassitt. New York runs out five left-handed bats plus Francisco Lindor from the left side, and Bassitt has allowed an .888 OPS to lefties over 212 at-bats this season against a .685 OPS to righties. His most-used pitch is a sinker at 37.9 percent usage with a .377 xwOBA, and Juan Soto, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, and Lindor all post .335 or better xwOBA against sinkers this year. Soto carries a 1.000 OPS against right-handers and a 1.017 OPS at home. Bassitt has been steadier since coming back in August, but he has also walked 14 in 34 innings over that stretch, and walks plus lefties plus sinkers is how innings turn into crooked numbers. On the other side, Baltimore's lineup against a righty is at its weakest: Coby Mayo hits .170 with a .551 OPS against right-handers over 241 at-bats, Christian Encarnacion-Strand sits at .621, and Jackson Holliday and Leody Taveras are not in tonight's order. Alonso is the one bat I fear, with a .486 xwOBA against four-seamers, but one hitter does not carry nine innings.

The best argument against me is obvious: Curry has never thrown more than 62 pitches in a big-league game this year, and the Mets lost Daniel Duarte and his 2.12 ERA to the injured list today with Senga and Pintaro on back-to-back days. That is a real hole from the fifth inning on. I took the Mets anyway because Baltimore's pen is not fresh either. They used seven relievers in Tuesday's 11-inning game, Grant Wolfram has pitched three of the last four days, and Rico Garcia is on a back-to-back. Both teams are bullpen-vulnerable tonight, so the game gets decided by which lineup fits the opposing starter, and that is the Mets by a wide margin. At -118 the market is treating this as a coin flip. I see a home team with a specific, large-sample matchup edge against a pitcher whose arsenal plays into its hands.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· +120

Wednesday night in Anaheim, and the last-place Angels are one win from sweeping the fading Mariners, who have dropped two straight tight ones in this park. George Kirby against Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle laying -142. I'm taking the Angels at plus money, and the pick starts with Kirby's road log. Since July 27 he has made five starts away from Seattle and allowed at least four earned runs in every one of them: 27 earned runs and 40 hits across 23 innings. Between those starts he has been excellent at home, five earned runs over his last four starts there. The market is pricing his 4.25 season ERA, but the pitcher who has shown up on the road for two months has not looked anything like that number. Tonight he is on the road, facing a lineup with four left-handed bats, and lefties have hit him for an .809 OPS this season against .739 for righties. Zach Neto is hitting .304 with a .919 OPS with runners in scoring position, and Josh Lowe took Logan Gilbert deep last night. The Angels' late-inning arms carry the better ERAs on the whole, with Fermin, Natera, and Joyce all under 3.40, and they just closed out a 2-1 game without allowing a run. The honest case against me is that Kirby's season-long contact profile is solid, a 6.8 percent barrel rate and a 4.13 expected ERA, while Kikuchi's is fragile at 8.9 percent barrels, a 5.00 expected ERA, and nine walks in 22 innings since he came back. Arozarena and Canzone both hit lefties better than righties on real samples, and if Kikuchi keeps walking people they will make him pay. I take that seriously, and it is why I would not lay the run line. But this Seattle offense has scored one and four runs in its two games here, and outside one 19-run outburst it has averaged under four a game for nine games. Two teams with identical run profiles, the home side with the better recent starter, and I'm getting +120 instead of laying -142. That's the price I want on a coin flip that leans my way.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Marlins· -134

Rubber game under the closed roof at Chase Field, and it's a Wild Card chaser against a spoiler that has already taken four of five from them this year. Here's the thing that carries my money tonight: the game after the fifth inning. Ryan Gusto has reached six innings exactly twice all season, and behind him Miami is running a bullpen that used seven relievers to cover six innings last night, has Faucher, Petersen, and Zuber each working a third day out of four, and just lost Pete Fairbanks to a hand nerve issue. Arizona's pen is not pristine either, but Garcia at a 1.94 ERA, Morillo at 2.24, and Loáisiga at 2.36 are the best three arms on either side, and Loáisiga and Santana did not throw last night. When this one is close in the seventh, and the total at 8.5 says the market expects close, Arizona is choosing from quality and Miami is choosing from whoever is left. The lineup matchup leans the same way. Gusto's sinker is getting hit at a .424 clip, and Moreno, Carroll, and Arenado all hit sinkers at .314 or better on real samples. Moreno is hitting .333 with an .888 OPS with runners on. Carroll owns an .877 OPS at home. Gusto's platoon split is flat, so Arizona's four lefty regulars are neither a bonus nor a problem, and his three good recent starts came against Washington twice and Boston, while the Dodgers and Cubs put 7 earned on him in 10.2 innings. The best argument against me is Merrill Kelly at home. His 5.83 ERA at Chase Field is ugly, the market is paying for a fragile 4.97 season number against a 6.61 xERA, and Lopez and Conine are among Miami's best fastball hitters against a pitcher whose fastball gets hit at .317. I'm not pretending that away. But that fragility is why this is -134 and not -160, and Kelly held this exact Miami lineup to two runs over six innings in June. I'm not betting on Kelly to be good. I'm betting on Arizona to survive his five innings and win the game from there, at a price that already discounts him. FanDuel's -134 is the best number on the board when everyone else is -140 to -145. Diamondbacks on the moneyline.

The lineup matchup leans the same way. Gusto's sinker is getting hit at a .424 clip, and Moreno, Carroll, and Arenado all hit sinkers at .314 or better on real samples. Moreno is hitting .333 with an .888 OPS with runners on. Carroll owns an .877 OPS at home. Gusto's platoon split is flat, so Arizona's four lefty regulars are neither a bonus nor a problem, and his three good recent starts came against Washington twice and Boston, while the Dodgers and Cubs put 7 earned on him in 10.2 innings.

The best argument against me is Merrill Kelly at home. His 5.83 ERA at Chase Field is ugly, the market is paying for a fragile 4.97 season number against a 6.61 xERA, and Lopez and Conine are among Miami's best fastball hitters against a pitcher whose fastball gets hit at .317. I'm not pretending that away. But that fragility is why this is -134 and not -160, and Kelly held this exact Miami lineup to two runs over six innings in June. I'm not betting on Kelly to be good. I'm betting on Arizona to survive his five innings and win the game from there, at a price that already discounts him. FanDuel's -134 is the best number on the board when everyone else is -140 to -145. Diamondbacks on the moneyline.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW LIBERATOREPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -146

Liberatore carries a 5.53 ERA into this start, and the profile behind it is exactly the kind that keeps producing multi-run innings: 27 home runs allowed in 143.1 innings, a 42.4 percent hard-hit rate, and a 9.4 percent barrel rate allowed over 425 batted balls. Two earned runs is a low bar for a pitcher averaging three per start this season, and he's cleared it in seven of his last eight outings — the only clean one came weeks ago against a much thinner lineup than the one he's facing today. His last two starts both ended after 4.1 innings, both times because the lineup got to him rather than any pitch-count plan. Nothing about tonight's matchup points to relief. He's been hit for an .832 OPS by left-handed batters and an .822 OPS by right-handed batters this season, so there's no side of the plate offering him cover, and this Giants lineup just hung ten runs on this pitching staff two nights ago in this same building. Bryce Eldridge, hitting second, is a real threat from the left side even against a lefty. Factor in a 90-degree day game with the wind blowing out to center, plus a pitcher who already carries a worse ERA at Busch (5.77) than he does on the road (5.27) this year, and I like the recent trend to hold again.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE ELDRIDGEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· -195

Eldridge is the hottest bat in this lineup right now — a .346 average and a .938 OPS over his last fifteen games, and 8-for-24 in the last week alone. He's reached base with a hit in thirteen of those fifteen games, and hitting second means he's ticketed for more plate appearances than almost anyone in the order not leading off. The matchup plays to his strength in a way that isn't obvious at first glance. Liberatore is a left-hander, but he doesn't get the platoon advantage a lefty usually holds over a left-handed bat: Eldridge carries an .880 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, while Liberatore has been hit for an .832 OPS by lefties. Those numbers cancel each other out rather than favoring the pitcher. Eldridge is already 3-for-7 against this Cardinals pitching staff in this series, including a home run Tuesday, and Liberatore is currently getting hit at a .284 clip on his fastball and .372 on his changeup. That's a lot working in the same direction for a single base hit.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE ELDRIDGEHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +600

This one is a long shot by price, not by logic. Eldridge already has 17 home runs this season, and he's getting there in an unusual way for a left-handed hitter — he actually carries a better OPS against left-handed pitching (.880 in 118 at-bats, with six of those seventeen homers) than his overall season line. That takes away the platoon shield a lefty like Liberatore usually leans on. Liberatore has allowed 27 home runs in 143.1 innings this year, seven of them to left-handed hitters in just 140 at-bats — roughly one every twenty at-bats he faces from that side. Add a 90-degree afternoon with the wind blowing straight out to center field, conditions built for fly balls to carry, and a hitter who already turned this pitching staff around for a home run two nights ago. At plus-600, I only need this to happen once.

GARY'S PICK

ANTHONY KAYPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -150

Kay takes the ball in the getaway finale with first place hanging on it, and every recent data point says two earned runs comes early and often. He's allowed multiple earned runs in seven of his last eight outings, and over his last three starts that number has ballooned to 13 earned runs in 13 innings. The road has been especially unkind — a 5.35 ERA away from Chicago compared to 3.86 at home, with his last three road starts going for a 7.07 ERA, and September has been a disaster so far at 8.64. Today's Cleveland lineup is built to keep that going: Kay has surrendered an .862 OPS and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters this season, and with Jose Ramirez, Angel Genao and Brayan Rocchio all hitting from the right side against a lefty, the Guardians send six right-handed or switch bats to the plate. He did handle Cleveland well back in June and July, but that was before the club added Jo Adell at the deadline and before this stretch of starts fell apart. I like the over comfortably at this number.

GARY'S PICK

AUSTIN HEDGESH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -147

Hedges gets the personal matchup he wants today. He's hitting .266 with a .745 OPS against left-handers this season against just .660 versus right-handers, and Kay is a left-hander who has been hit hard by right-handed bats all year, allowing an .862 OPS and 18 home runs to that side. Hedges sat the first two games of this series, so he should be fresh stepping behind the plate, and he arrives with a hot final week — 2-for-6 with a 1.095 OPS over his last seven days. He's cleared this 0.5 line in 8 of his last 15 games, and with a hit, a run, or an RBI all doing the job, the platoon advantage gives him more than one route to get there.

THE LONG SHOT

RANDAL GRICHUKHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +700

Grichuk is the hottest hitter in either lineup right now, batting .400 with a 1.204 OPS in September and going 8-for-15 with two home runs over his last seven days. The matchup only helps: he's a .317 hitter against left-handers with a .989 OPS and nine home runs in 145 at-bats this season, and he draws left-hander Parker Messick this afternoon. That's a home run roughly once every sixteen at-bats against that side, a rate that makes plus-700 worth taking on a hitter running this hot in a game with the division on the line. He's also 3-for-9 in his career sample against Messick. This is the longshot with the clearest thread of evidence behind it tonight.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON VALENZUELAH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -155

Brandon Valenzuela is 1-for-13 over his last two weeks, a .077 average, and this number has gone over in just two of his last fifteen games. He doesn't run, so there's no other way for him to add to this line besides the bat, and right now the bat isn't doing much — a .659 OPS on the season that's trending colder, not warmer. He's catching against Keider Montero, a 1.03 WHIP starter who doesn't hand out extra baserunners, and Valenzuela sits at the bottom of a Toronto lineup that's dropped two straight to Detroit and is trying to avoid a sweep. Betting against two combined hits, runs, and RBIs from a cold-streak catcher hitting eighth is the right side of this number for me.

GARY'S PICK

JOHN PECKH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -142

John Peck hits ninth for Detroit, but that spot is doing leadoff work in this lineup with Kevin McGonigle standing right behind him — Peck's getting on base at a .370 clip, with six walks in just 37 at-bats and four stolen bases to go with it. This number has cashed in seven of his last eleven games. The matchup helps: Max Scherzer is running a 7.59 ERA in September and has allowed a run in four of his last five starts, so a hitter who works counts and puts the ball in play doesn't need much to get on the stat sheet tonight. Detroit is scoring 8.2 runs a game over its last five, and Peck sits right in the middle of that traffic every time through the order. I like buying one hit, run, or RBI from him at this price.

THE LONG SHOT

KAZUMA OKAMOTOHR OVER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +370

Kazuma Okamoto has 33 home runs this season and he's been the one Toronto bat still doing damage through this slide — a 1.075 OPS with four homers over his last fifteen days, and September has been his best month yet at a 1.039 OPS. He's already gone deep once in this series. He gets a Detroit starter working on six days of rest coming off a rough finish to his last turn through the rotation: six earned runs in four innings against Cleveland on September 4, including a grand slam, and two more home runs allowed his next time out against Minnesota. Okamoto has cleared this number in six of his last fifteen games. At plus-money on a hitter swinging it this well, I want a piece of the shot.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZHITS OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -138

De La Cruz is in the best form of his season right now. He's hitting .436 with a 1.411 OPS in September, and he's collected a hit in 13 of his last 15 games. Tonight's matchup only sharpens that. He's a switch-hitter batting from the side that owns a .352 average and 1.080 OPS against left-handed pitching this year, and Blake Snell is exactly that tonight. His 0-for-4 career mark against Snell isn't enough at-bats to mean anything next to a season-long platoon split built on 145 at-bats. He's already 3-for-7 with a homer in this series, and he's reached base with a hit in every game of it, including a double off Yamamoto and a single off Scott just last night. Even if Snell handles him early, De La Cruz still sees the Dodgers bullpen behind him. One hit is the bar here, and almost nothing about his last month suggests he fails to clear it.

GARY'S PICK

JUAN BRITOH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -154

Brito has turned into one of the hotter bats in this Cincinnati lineup since the calendar flipped to September, hitting .368 with a 1.146 OPS over his last 19 at-bats, including a 6-for-12 stretch over the past week. The platoon matchup tonight plays right into that: he's a switch-hitter producing a .423 average and 1.102 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, and he draws another left-hander in Blake Snell. This prop only needs one hit, run or RBI to cash, and Brito has cleared that in each of his last three games, including a double off Hall in his most recent look at a lefty reliever. Batting sixth gives him close to four plate appearances tonight against a pitching staff he's already touched for two hits in six at-bats this series. The season sample on him is still short at 80 at-bats, but every recent trend points the same direction, and the bar here is a low one.

THE LONG SHOT

MOOKIE BETTSHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +440

Betts has found his power stroke at the right time. He's hit four home runs in September alone, three of them in just the last seven days, a stretch that has him slugging 1.128. That kind of surge lines up well with a ballpark that plays small with the wind blowing in from the outfield, exactly the conditions that turn deep fly balls into home runs. Andrew Abbott is what makes this worth the plus money. He's allowed a home run in four of his last five starts, including three in one outing against the Cubs and two more his last time out, and he takes the ball tonight on a career-high workload for a rotation that has leaned on him hard all year. Betts has gone cold in this series at 0-for-8, and his numbers against lefties trail his numbers against righties this season, so I'm not calling this a lock. But the recent power spike combined with a homer-prone starter in a hitter-friendly park is enough to take a swing at plus-440.

GARY'S PICK

DONOVAN WALTONH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -170

Walton has quietly put together an .825 OPS this season, and almost all of it comes against right-handed pitching — a .287 average and .870 OPS with six of his seven homers, against a .118 average when a lefty starts. Nick Martinez throws right-handed, so tonight lines up with his strength, not against it. He's also swinging it well independent of the matchup: five hits in his last eighteen at-bats with two homers over the past week, three homers over his last fifteen days. The rolling log shows him getting shut out in eight of his last fifteen games, but that window is loaded with left-handed pitching he simply doesn't hit. Point him at a right-hander instead, in a lineup spot where he's playing every day, and the shorter price makes sense to me.

GARY'S PICK

BRADY BASSOPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -150

Basso has stayed under this number in four of his last five starts, and the one time he didn't — three earned runs against Houston on August 23 — came in his shortest outing of the stretch, just one inning before Oakland pulled him. That's the pattern: 2.1, 2.1, 1.0, 2.1, then 4.0 innings his last time out. Oakland has kept him on a short leash all year, and a short leash caps the damage even on a bad night, since he doesn't stick around long enough to pile up a third earned run unless things go bad in a hurry. Tampa Bay's lineup also hits right-handers considerably better than left-handers as a team, .758 OPS against righties versus .683 against lefties, which works in his favor even with Diaz and Caminero both especially dangerous against left-handed pitching specifically. He's coming off extra rest and just turned in his longest outing of the year, and Tropicana Field suppresses offense as much as any park in the league. His road numbers are shaky in a small sample, and I'm not ignoring that, but the usage pattern and the ballpark give this enough of an edge at this price.

THE LONG SHOT

VICTOR MESA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +610

Victor Mesa Jr. is the hottest bat in this game. Over his last seven days he's hitting .529 with a 1.796 OPS and three home runs in that stretch; widen it to his last fifteen days and the OPS is still 1.230, with those same three homers all coming inside that window. This has been his form for essentially two straight weeks, not one hot game. Most of his thirteen homers this season have come against right-handers, and Brady Basso throws left-handed, so I won't pretend the platoon split favors him here — but he's already 1-for-1 in his career at-bats against Basso, and a hitter running this hot tends to keep producing across matchups, not just his preferred one. At plus money on an everyday bat in this kind of form, I like the number.

GARY'S PICK

KEIBERT RUIZH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -147

Ruiz catches Jared Simpson tonight in what amounts to a bullpen game for Washington, and he's the National hitter I trust most to reach base or drive somebody in regardless of who's on the mound. He's been red hot, five hits in his last eleven at-bats with an OPS over 1.300 this past week, on top of a similarly strong stretch over his last fifteen games. He's a switch hitter producing almost identically from both sides of the plate this year, .289 against lefties and .290 against righties, so he isn't exposed to the platoon matchup that could bother some of his teammates against Wheeler tonight. He's also hit Wheeler well over his career, eight hits in thirty at-bats with three home runs. A hit, run, or RBI is a low bar for a catcher swinging it like this, and I'll lay the price.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +326

Schwarber is the most dangerous power bat in this game by a wide margin, and even though his batting average has cooled this month, the home runs haven't stopped, three in his last seven days and four over his last fifteen games. That's a hitter still squaring up the baseball even while the average slumps, which is exactly the profile I want for a home run bet. He's never faced Jared Simpson in the big leagues, so there's no track record to lean on there, but Simpson's fastball and sinker have both gotten hit hard in his brief look at this level, and Schwarber doesn't need much of a mistake to leave the yard. He can still do damage against lefties generally, fourteen home runs in under two hundred at-bats against left-handed pitching this season. The wind is blowing out to center tonight at Nationals Park, which doesn't hurt either. At plus money for the game's biggest power threat, I want this one.

GARY'S PICK

DYLAN CREWSH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -164

Crews sees more plate appearances than almost anyone in this Washington lineup, and volume matters on a bet this simple. He's produced a hit, run, or RBI in eleven of his last fifteen games, and over the past week he's six for twenty-four with a home run. My hesitation is the matchup: he's a right-handed bat facing a right-handed pitcher who has been considerably tougher on righties than lefties this season, and Crews has struggled against right-handed pitching all year himself. But he still gets roughly four trips to the plate tonight, most of them likely to come after Wheeler is out of the game, and this Washington lineup has been finding ways to produce even without loud contact. The recent form and the at-bat volume are enough for me to take the over, even with the platoon working against him early.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN HENDERSONK'S OVER 5.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -152

Henderson has cleared this number in seven of his last eight starts, and Pittsburgh’s lineup averages 9.2 strikeouts per game. His changeup has generated a 39% whiff rate, while the Pirates are starting four left-handed hitters against a pitch that has limited lefties to a .542 OPS. Henderson’s recent run includes 20 strikeouts and only one walk across his last three starts. Even with a pitcher-friendly park and a potentially modest pitch count, six strikeouts is a reasonable target.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON LOWETOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -154

Lowe has recorded at least one total base in 11 of his last 15 games and has been one of Pittsburgh’s most consistent sources of power all season. He owns a .891 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Henderson’s fastball is the one part of his arsenal that carries a more ordinary .235 expected mark. Lowe also homered Tuesday, giving him a good recent look at this pitching staff. One hit is enough to cash this line, and his place near the top of the order gives him plenty of opportunity.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON CHOURIOHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +564

This is the long shot I want. Chourio is batting .412 with a 1.103 OPS in September, has homered three times in his last 15 games, and is 3-for-5 with a homer in his career against Jared Jones. Jones has been excellent lately, so I’m not treating this as a high-probability play, but Chourio’s current swing and prior success against this matchup make the price worth a small shot.

GARY'S PICK

DAULTON VARSHOH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· -140

Varsho is batting eighth and comes into this matchup with only three games over this number in his last 15. The left-handed hitter has managed just a .635 OPS against left-handers this season, and Daniel Lynch IV has held lefties to a .455 OPS. Lynch’s recent results have been uneven, but Varsho’s low lineup position and limited production against this side of the matchup make two combined hits, runs or RBIs a demanding bar.

GARY'S PICK

CRISTIAN JAVIERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· -166

Javier has looked sharper lately, but I’m still willing to attack this number because his season profile remains volatile. He has allowed a .874 OPS to right-handed hitters, and Kansas City has three right-handed bats plus a switch-hitter in the lineup. Javier has also allowed eight home runs in ten starts, while this park rewards mistakes in the air. His recent improvement lowers the ceiling, but two earned runs is still the more likely outcome than another clean performance.

THE LONG SHOT

JEREMY PENAHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +570

Peña just broke out with two home runs, and this is a favorable spot to take the long price while he faces a left-hander. Lynch has allowed four home runs across his recent scoring plays and has been considerably less effective against right-handed hitters than lefties. Peña bats first, gets the most opportunities, and Daikin Park’s short left field gives his pull-side power some help. I’m not chasing Tuesday’s box score blindly, but +570 is enough for me to take the shot.

GARY'S PICK

JAHMAI JONESH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -165

Jones has gone over this number only twice in his last 15 games, and he is hitting second largely because of the matchup rather than because the bat is carrying the lineup. MacKenzie Gore's recent trouble has come from walks and right-handed power, but Jones has not shown the consistent contact needed to turn those opportunities into two combined hits, runs, or RBIs.

GARY'S PICK

TREVOR STORYHITS OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -157

Story has cleared this number in 13 of his last 15, and Texas is sending out a lefty who has recently been vulnerable to right-handed contact. Story's recent form has been much better than his season line, and Boston should get multiple chances against MacKenzie Gore's inconsistent command. One clean single is enough.

THE LONG SHOT

COREY SEAGERHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +461

This is the long shot I want. Seager has homered in five of his last 15, just drove in two runs against Boston, and Jake Bennett has allowed all 12 of his home runs to right-handed hitters—but the broader warning is the recent damage and elevated contact against both sides. Seager is too dangerous to leave at this price in a park where one mistake can end the at-bat.

GARY'S PICK

JR RITCHIEPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -150

Ritchie has cleared this number in seven of his eight starts, and tonight brings a difficult return assignment after 44 days between major-league starts. Chicago can send three left-handed bats and two switch-hitters at him, while Ritchie has allowed a .793 OPS to lefties and walked 25 of 127. The Cubs do not need to win this game early for this ticket to cash; a couple of walks followed by contact should be enough. With Atlanta likely asking him to cover meaningful innings, I’m backing the over.

GARY'S PICK

DRAKE BALDWINTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -190

Baldwin has recorded a hit in 13 of his last 15 games and already has four hits, including a homer, in this series. He has also handled Imanaga before, going 2-for-6 with a home run, and the Cubs’ late-inning relief group just absorbed another rough night. Baldwin is seeing the ball well, occupies the middle of Atlanta’s order and should get four or more opportunities. I’m laying the price for one base.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +420

This is the long shot I want from Atlanta’s power board. Olson has 39 homers, owns five hits in 11 career at-bats against Imanaga, and the Cubs starter has allowed 33 homers this season. The matchup is not perfect with two left-handed hitters meeting, and the wind is coming in, so I’m keeping the conviction measured. But at this number, Olson’s season-long power and prior success against Imanaga make the swing worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

ROBBIE RAYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -192

Ray has walked at least two in seven of his last eight starts, and Coors Field is a difficult place to trust his command. Colorado’s lineup has enough patience to extend at-bats, while Ray has issued four walks in each of his last two outings. I’m paying the price for two or more free passes.

GARY'S PICK

XANDER BOGAERTSH+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -157

Bogaerts has cleared this number in only five of his last 15 games, and he is hitting in the lower half of a Padres lineup where the production is concentrated above him. Mason Adams’ curveball has been his best weapon, and Bogaerts is more likely to need multiple productive events to beat this line than simply reach base. I’m taking the under.

THE LONG SHOT

FERNANDO TATIS JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +340

Tatis has homered in both games of this series and is hitting .359 with four homers in September. He gets a right-handed rookie whose sinker has been hit hard, and Coors Field gives every mistake extra carry. This is still a long shot, but the matchup and his current swing make +340 worth a small play.

GARY'S PICK

CHRIS BASSITTPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -115

Bassitt draws a Mets lineup built to give him exactly this kind of night. Five left-handed bats plus a switch-hitter leading off in Lindor, and lefties have hit .321 with an .888 OPS and 8 home runs in 212 at-bats against him this season, against just .265/.685 from the right side. His two most-used pitches back that up — the sinker, thrown 37.9 percent of the time, carries a .340 average and .377 xwOBA against it, and the cutter behind it is worse at .318/.410. Those two pitches make up more than half his mix, and hitters are squaring both of them up all year. He's also been the worse version of himself away from Camden Yards this season, a 6.13 ERA on the road against 3.55 at home, and he's the visitor tonight. Over his last three starts he's gone 16.1 innings for 10 earned runs, a 5.51 ERA, and he's allowed six or more hits in five of his last eight outings, including one turn where it came in just three innings of work. He's averaging 6.1 hits allowed a start over 16 turns this season. With this matchup and this pitch mix, I don't need him to have a bad night to clear the number — I need him to have a normal one.

GARY'S PICK

RECE HINDSHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -101

Hinds is a .149 hitter for the season who's gone cold at the worst time — hitless in five straight in this sample, 0-for-3 in this series, 0-for-7 over his last week. He's in the eight-hole tonight with only 2.7 plate appearances a game, so there isn't much volume even on a good night. His numbers are better against right-handers than lefties, .231 to .048, and Curry is a righty, but that's a low bar to clear — an upgrade from dreadful to still below replacement. Over his last 15 games he's managed a hit in only four of them. This is a bat in a real slump without much playing time behind it, and at essentially even money I'll take the under.

THE LONG SHOT

FRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +510

Lindor switch-hits, which means he steps in left-handed against the right-handed Bassitt tonight, and that's the side that has done real damage to him all season — left-handed batters are hitting .321 with an .888 OPS against Bassitt, with 8 home runs in just 212 at-bats, against only 2 homers in 151 at-bats from the right side. Lindor himself has hit 15 of his 20 home runs this year against right-handed pitching, and he's 5-for-17 with a homer against Bassitt in his career. He's swinging it well right now too, three home runs in his last seven days and six over his last fifteen games. Bassitt has allowed a home run in six of his last eight starts, and Lindor leads off, giving him more plate appearances than anyone in this lineup tonight, four and a half a game, which means the most looks at that vulnerable arm before New York even gets to the rest of the order. The series has been quiet for him, just one hit in nine at-bats, but nothing about the underlying matchup says that continues. At plus-510 I'm not asking for a guarantee, just a hot hitter catching a pitcher on the wrong side of his own platoon split.

GARY'S PICK

GEORGE KIRBYPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -105

Kirby is averaging 6.6 hits allowed per start this season, well clear of this number, and that's before accounting for where he's pitching tonight. Since late July he has made five road starts and allowed at least four earned runs in every single one, 40 hits across those 23 innings. His last time out, at Oakland, he gave up nine hits in six innings. He's cleared this total in six of his last eight starts overall, and tonight he's back on the road facing an Angels lineup that's swinging it well right now — Ballesteros is 5-for-14 over the last week, Guzman 5-for-16, Neto with two homers in his last seven games. Kirby's contact numbers back it up too, a 40.4 percent hard-hit rate allowed on the season. I don't need a disaster start from him, just another normal road outing, and that's been enough all summer.

THE LONG SHOT

RANDY AROZARENAHR OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +525

Arozarena has three home runs in 28 career at-bats against Kikuchi, a rate that jumps out even next to a season where he already has 25. He hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching this year, .295 with an .889 OPS and eight homers in 149 at-bats against lefties, and Kikuchi is exactly that, a left-hander who has already allowed seven home runs in eleven starts back from his shoulder injury. Arozarena is also swinging a hot bat right now, three home runs over his last four games before going quiet the last two nights in Anaheim. He gets the matchup type he's crushed all season and the specific pitcher he's already gone deep on three times in his career. At plus-525 I only need this to land a little better than once every six tries, and both the platoon split and his personal history against this arm say that's there tonight.

GARY'S PICK

YUSEI KIKUCHIK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -119

Kikuchi is a contact-management lefty, not a strikeout arm, and the raw numbers back that up: 4.9 strikeouts per start across eleven outings this season, under this total in five of his last eight. He hasn't been going deep enough to change that math either. His last start against Washington took 88 pitches to get through just four innings because the walks crept back, four of them that night, eight over his last three starts combined. Even his best recent outing for length, seven innings against the Phillies in his final August start, only produced six strikeouts. A pitch-to-contact starter who's rarely stretching past six innings has a low ceiling on this number even on a clean night, and I'd rather lay the price here than bet on him suddenly missing bats he hasn't been missing.

GARY'S PICK

MERRILL KELLYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -152

Kelly is averaging two and a half walks a start this season, and that's not a one-off bad month, it's the shape of his whole year. He's walked at least two hitters in seven of his last eight turns. The command trouble has a paper trail: Arizona spent part of August working with him on a suspected pitch-tipping issue after the Cubs series, he's dealt with recurring leg cramping that's flared even on cool nights, and his own manager has been quick-hooking him all year because, in Kelly's own words, he hasn't earned a long leash right now. His pitch counts back it up too, averaging north of 85 a start while rarely working into the seventh, which is what happens when a pitcher is fighting the strike zone rather than pitching ahead of it. This is the shape of his whole season, not a snapshot skewed by one blowup start, and it's held up basically every time out.

GARY'S PICK

MERRILL KELLYK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -137

Kelly is a 3.8-strikeout-per-start pitcher this season, comfortably under this number, and he's cleared it in only two of his last eight outings. Part of that is stuff: his four-seamer is getting hit at a .317 average and a .401 xwOBA, which is not a pitch that misses bats. Part of it is usage. Torey Lovullo has had a short leash on him all season, and Kelly said as much after his last start, that he doesn't feel like he's earned a long outing right now. Short outings cap strikeout counts no matter how the stuff is playing, and Kelly is averaging under 17 outs a start on the year. A pitcher who isn't missing bats with his fastball and isn't consistently pitching into the sixth is a pitcher who lives under 4.5 strikeouts, and that's exactly the season he's had.

THE LONG SHOT

NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +650

Arenado has three home runs in his last seven days and three home runs in September alone on just 33 at-bats, the hottest power stretch on either roster right now, and he's doing it as a hitter with 25 home runs on the season already, not someone catching a random spark. Gusto gives him a fair path to keep it going: a 42.9 percent hard-hit rate allowed and a sinker that right-handed hitters are hitting .424 against, with a fly-ball-leaning profile that turns loud contact into home runs more often than most starters allow. Arenado is 0-for-2 against Gusto for his career, but two at-bats tell me nothing that a week of exit velocity like this doesn't tell me louder. At plus-650 for a hitter running this hot against a pitcher who gets hit this hard, I only need one mistake pitch to cash it.

Research

112

FANTASY USAGEat BAL
Devaughn Vele
CONSIDER ADD: Prioritize Vele for PPR depth, but value the targets more than the touchdown Why now: Vele converted nine Week 1 targets into seven catches, 69 yards and a touchdown [current_regular_games]. The provider's Week 2 estimate retreats to six targets and 9.5 PPR points [weekly_projection], supporting a conditional add for receiving volume without treating his debut score as the new expectation. Who it fits: PPR and half-PPR managers seeking receiver depth or a future flex option, if Vele is available in their league. The risk: This is a one-game sample, and the Week 2 forecast already anticipates fewer targets and catches [current_regular_games] [weekly_projection]. Watch next: Check his active status before the scheduled Baltimore game, then whether he sustains meaningful target volume [scheduled_matchup]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat ATL
Bryce Young
CONSIDER ADD: Treat Young as a QB-needy roster option, not a bet on another four-score game Why now: Young opened with 361 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown on 37 attempts [current_regular_games]. The provider projects a much quieter 236.2 passing yards and 16.7 points for Week 2 [weekly_projection], so the useful signal is his passing opportunity rather than an assumption that the scoring repeats. Who it fits: Managers needing a second quarterback, injury cover or a streaming option, conditional on Young being available. The risk: Only one 2026 game has been observed, while the provider estimate calls for substantial regression from that result [current_regular_games] [weekly_projection]. Watch next: Confirm his game status before the scheduled Atlanta kickoff and monitor whether the passing volume remains elevated [scheduled_matchup]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat NE
Pat Freiermuth
CONSIDER ADD: Freiermuth is a sensible PPR tight-end target if your league left him available Why now: Freiermuth caught all five of his Week 1 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown [current_regular_games]. The Week 2 forecast still assigns 5.5 targets and four receptions [weekly_projection], giving tight-end-needy managers a volume-based reason to consider him beyond the opening score. Who it fits: Half-PPR or PPR managers without a dependable tight-end option, provided Freiermuth is actually on their wire. The risk: The touchdown came in a single observed game, and the provider projects only 35.1 receiving yards this week [current_regular_games] [weekly_projection]. Watch next: Check his active status before the scheduled New England game, then whether the five-target involvement persists [scheduled_matchup]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs MIA
Kaelon Black
CONSIDER ADD: Black is a deeper-league rushing stash, with little receiving cushion so far Why now: Black recorded 14 carries for 65 yards in Week 1 but drew only one target [current_regular_games]. The provider estimates 10.4 carries and just 0.8 targets in Week 2 [weekly_projection], making him a conditional add for managers prioritizing rushing depth rather than reception-driven scoring. Who it fits: Standard or deeper half-PPR leagues where an available running back with demonstrated carries is more valuable than immediate receiving production. The risk: His evidence covers one game, and the Week 2 estimate is only 8.0 half-PPR points with minimal receiving work [current_regular_games] [weekly_projection]. Watch next: Track his carry and target totals in the scheduled Miami game; those will show whether Week 1's workload is repeatable [scheduled_matchup]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat LAR
Isaiah Likely
START: Keep Likely in the Week 2 tight-end lineup while the targets support the breakout Why now: Likely caught all eight Week 1 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns [current_regular_games]. The provider lowers the expectation but still forecasts 6.2 targets and 11.6 PPR points against the Rams [weekly_projection], enough to start him without requiring another multi-touchdown result. Who it fits: Managers choosing a starting tight end in standard, half-PPR or PPR scoring. The risk: Both touchdowns came in one game, and the provider projects only 0.35 receiving touchdowns for Week 2 [current_regular_games] [weekly_projection]. Watch next: Verify that Likely is active before the scheduled Monday-night kickoff [scheduled_matchup]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 21, 08:15 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEvs PIT
Rhamondre Stevenson
START: Use Stevenson as an RB or flex on workload, even without a Week 1 touchdown Why now: Stevenson handled 18 carries for 51 yards and caught five of six targets for 44 yards in Week 1 [current_regular_games]. The provider projects 12.8 carries, 3.3 targets and 10.3 to 12.9 points across the supplied formats [weekly_projection], preserving startable value even with a reduced estimate. Who it fits: Managers needing an RB or flex whose case rests on rushing and receiving opportunities rather than touchdown dependence. The risk: The forecast reduces both his carries and targets from Week 1, and his starting role is not confirmed by the supplied schedule data [weekly_projection] [scheduled_matchup]. Watch next: Confirm his active status before Pittsburgh and then compare his early rushing and receiving involvement with Week 1 [scheduled_matchup] [current_regular_games]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 20, 01:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat DAL
Terry McLaurin
HOLD: Give McLaurin another game before reacting to the quiet opener Why now: McLaurin managed two catches for 14 yards on four targets in Week 1 [current_regular_games]. The provider still estimates 6.9 targets, 60.3 yards and 12.6 PPR points for Week 2 [weekly_projection], creating enough conflict between one poor result and the forward estimate to justify patience. Who it fits: Managers already rostering McLaurin who can wait for another observed target sample rather than making a decision from one game. The risk: The Week 2 numbers are projections, not proof that his involvement will rebound [weekly_projection]. Watch next: Watch whether his target count rises in the scheduled Dallas game; another low-volume result would materially weaken the patience case [scheduled_matchup]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET.
FANTASY USAGEat CHI
Carson Wentz
WATCH: Require confirmation that Wentz starts before treating him as a QB stream Why now: Wentz threw three touchdowns on only 19 attempts in Week 1 [current_regular_games], while the provider's Week 2 estimate assumes 34.2 attempts and 16.8 points [weekly_projection]. That workload gap matters, and the supplied schedule does not confirm him as the starter [scheduled_matchup]. Who it fits: Quarterback-needy managers considering a short-term stream, especially in deeper leagues. The risk: The opening touchdown total came on limited passing volume, while the larger projected workload remains only an estimate [current_regular_games] [weekly_projection]. Watch next: Check Minnesota's announced starter and Wentz's active status before the scheduled Chicago kickoff [scheduled_matchup]. Evidence as of Sep 16, 11:00 PM ET. Next-game call closes at Sep 20, 01:00 PM ET.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ COL
Padres are 9-2 vs Rockies this season
San Diego is 9-2 against Colorado across 11 meetings this season, though Colorado won the last one 9-3. Without pitcher, prior-venue or series-progression details, that record alone does not explain tonight’s game in Colorado.
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ TEX
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Justin Foscue has a 1.009 OPS in 127 AB vs. Left, compared with .525 in 78 AB the other way. He bats 1st for TEX tonight against LHP Jake Bennett.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
TEAM RECORDSEA @ LAA
Angels 1-7 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 8 starts
The Angels are 1-7 in Yusei Kikuchi’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at home against Seattle, bringing that club-level run into SEA at LAA.
HEAT CHECKATL @ CHC
Alex Bregman: 1.302 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman has a 1.302 OPS over the last 15 days in 52 AB. That is a 0.502 swing from his .800 season baseline.
P 3-for-4, 9 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADLAD @ CIN
Dodgers are 5-0 vs Reds this season
Los Angeles is 5-0 against Cincinnati across five meetings this season, including a 4-0 win last time. No pitcher, venue or game-by-game context is supplied to show what carries into tonight in Cincinnati.
STREAKSD @ COL
COL have lost 8 straight
8 losses in a row for COL, a -32 run margin across the slide — they limp in 1-9 over their last 10.
P team lost 9-3
STREAKSD @ COL
SD have won 8 straight
SD have taken 8 straight and own a +16 run differential over the run. Last 10: 9-1.
P team won 9-3
STREAKMIL @ PIT
PIT games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Pittsburgh Pirates games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 7 runs a night against an average line of 8.8. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
P final total 9 vs 7.5
HEAT CHECKLAD @ CIN
Elly De La Cruz: 1.360 OPS in Last 15 Days
Elly De La Cruz has a 1.360 OPS over the last 15 days in 47 AB. That is a 0.486 swing from his .874 season baseline.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ CLE
Travis Bazzana: 1.336 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.336 OPS spans the last 15 days (39 AB) against a .756 season baseline, a 0.58 swing. He has 14 home runs on the season.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFATL @ CHC
Matt Olson: .397 OPS in Last 15 Days
Matt Olson has a .397 OPS over the last 15 days in 53 AB. That is 0.431 below his .828 season baseline.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ ARI
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Lars Nootbaar's vs. Right line (.781 OPS, 213 AB) sits well above his .460 mark the other way (39 AB). Tonight's starter Ryan Gusto throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGESF @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Anthony Molina (RHP)
Alec Burleson has a .939 OPS in 382 AB vs. right-handers, compared with .546 in 181 AB vs. left-handers. He bats 3rd tonight against RHP Anthony Molina.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
TEAM RECORDNYY @ MIN
Twins 6-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 8 starts
The Twins are 6-2 in Zebby Matthews’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at home against the Yankees in NYY at MIN.
HEAD-TO-HEADPHI @ WSH
Phillies are 8-4 vs Nationals this season
Philadelphia is 8-4 against Washington across 12 meetings this season, though Washington won the last one 6-3. Without pitcher, venue or game-by-game details, the series alone does not explain tonight in Washington.
HEAD-TO-HEADOAK @ TB
Rays are 4-0 vs Athletics this season
Tampa Bay is 4-0 against the Athletics across four meetings this season, including a 2-1 win last time. The small series record lacks pitcher and venue context, limiting what it explains about tonight in Tampa Bay.
HEAT CHECKKC @ HOU
Carter Jensen: 1.212 OPS in Last 15 Days
Carter Jensen has a 1.212 OPS over the last 15 days in 46 AB. That is 0.441 above his .771 season mark.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDKC @ HOU
Astros 2-6 in Cristian Javier's last 8 starts
Astros are 2-6 in Cristian Javier's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGECHW @ CLE
Chase Meidroth (bats R) hits 1st against Parker Messick (LHP)
Chase Meidroth has a .968 OPS in 139 AB vs. left-handers, compared with .662 in 384 AB vs. right-handers. He leads off tonight against LHP Parker Messick.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEDET @ TOR
Brett Bateman (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Brett Bateman's vs. Right line (.936 OPS, 84 AB) sits well above his .629 mark the other way (50 AB). Tonight's starter Keider Montero throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TEAM RECORDBOS @ TEX
Rangers 6-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 8 starts
Rangers are 6-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDATL @ CHC
Cubs 6-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts
Cubs are 6-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDMIL @ PIT
Brewers 6-2 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
The Brewers are 6-2 in Logan Henderson’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at Pittsburgh, carrying that club-level run into MIL at PIT.
TEAM RECORDMIL @ PIT
Pirates 2-6 in Jared Jones's last 8 starts
The Pirates are 2-6 in Jared Jones’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at home against Milwaukee in MIL at PIT.
TEAM RECORDNYY @ MIN
Yankees 6-2 in Carlos Rodon's last 8 starts
The Yankees are 6-2 in Carlos Rodon’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at Minnesota, carrying that club-level run into NYY at MIN.
TEAM RECORDSF @ STL
Cardinals 2-6 in Matthew Liberatore's last 8 starts
The Cardinals are 2-6 in Matthew Liberatore’s last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight at home against San Francisco in SF at STL.
PLATOON EDGEDET @ TOR
Josh Smith (bats L) draws Keider Montero (RHP), batting 6th
Josh Smith carries a .741 OPS in 154 AB vs. Right, compared with .254 in 27 AB the other way. He bats 6th tonight against RHP Keider Montero.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ PIT
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Brice Turang has an .890 OPS in 373 AB vs. Right, compared with .601 in 163 AB the other way. He bats 1st for MIL tonight against RHP Jared Jones.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ CLE
Jo Adell (bats R) hits 3rd against Anthony Kay (LHP)
Jo Adell has a .942 OPS in 151 AB vs. left-handers, compared with .590 in 401 AB vs. right-handers. He bats 3rd tonight against LHP Anthony Kay.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKSD @ COL
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.160 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (53 AB) he is at a 1.160 OPS, up 0.339 on his .821 season mark. He has 23 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ PIT
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Logan Henderson (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries an .891 OPS in 366 AB vs. Right, compared with .608 in 174 AB the other way. He bats 2nd tonight against RHP Logan Henderson.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKSF @ STL
Thomas Saggese: 1.133 OPS in Last 15 Days
Thomas Saggese has a 1.133 OPS over the last 15 days in 44 AB. That is a 0.394 swing from his .739 season baseline.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKMIL @ PIT
William Contreras: 1.123 OPS in Last 15 Days
William Contreras has a 1.123 OPS over the last 15 days in 47 AB. That is 0.359 above his .764 season mark.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
STARTER FORMCHW @ CLE
Anthony Kay: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Anthony Kay has a 9.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across 13 innings in his last 3 starts. Those recent marks compare with his 4.53 season ERA and 1.37 season WHIP entering CHW at CLE.
P 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
COOLING OFFCHW @ CLE
Munetaka Murakami: .466 OPS in Last 15 Days
Munetaka Murakami has a .466 OPS over the last 15 days in 49 AB. That is 0.344 below his .810 season baseline.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKATL @ CHC
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1.083 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 1.083 OPS over the last 15 days in 54 AB. That is 0.293 above his .790 season mark.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKDET @ TOR
Riley Greene: 1.157 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 53 AB: a 1.157 OPS versus .854 for the season, 0.303 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEDET @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Keider Montero (RHP)
Nathan Lukes owns a .758 OPS in 305 AB vs. Right, compared with .493 in 68 AB the other way. He bats 2nd for TOR tonight against RHP Keider Montero.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
BALLPARKNYY @ MIN
Zebby Matthews's ERA drops to 2.84 at Target Field
Zebby Matthews has a 2.84 ERA in 9 games and 57.0 innings at Target Field, where hitters bat .232 against him. His ERA is 6.93 across 62.1 innings everywhere else entering tonight’s NYY-MIN start.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
HEAD-TO-HEADMIA @ ARI
Marlins are 4-1 vs Diamondbacks this season
Miami is 4-1 against Arizona across five meetings this season, including a 4-2 win last time. The record lacks pitcher, prior-venue and game-by-game context, limiting what it says about tonight in Arizona.
COOLING OFFMIA @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .403 OPS in Last 15 Days
Corbin Carroll has a .403 OPS over the last 15 days in 41 AB. That is 0.399 below his .802 season mark.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADSF @ STL
Giants are 4-1 vs Cardinals this season
San Francisco is 4-1 against St. Louis across five meetings this season, including a 10-3 win last time. No pitcher, prior-venue or game-by-game context is supplied to connect that record to tonight in St. Louis.
COOLING OFFCHW @ CLE
Miguel Vargas: .547 OPS in Last 15 Days
Miguel Vargas has a .547 OPS over the last 15 days in 56 AB. That is 0.286 below his .833 season mark.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKOAK @ TB
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.212 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (43 AB) he is at a 1.212 OPS, up 0.376 on his .836 season mark. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ COL
Jackson Merrill: 1.056 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (51 AB) he is at a 1.056 OPS, up 0.313 on his .743 season mark. He has 25 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKLAD @ CIN
Teoscar Hernandez: 1.112 OPS in Last 15 Days
Teoscar Hernandez has a 1.112 OPS over the last 15 days in 46 AB. That is 0.354 above his .758 season mark.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMSD @ COL
Robbie Ray: 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
Robbie Ray has allowed 11 earned runs in 13.1 innings across his last 3 starts, producing a 7.43 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Those marks compare with his 3.57 season ERA and 1.35 season WHIP entering SD at COL.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
COOLING OFFSD @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .351 OPS in Last 15 Days
Mickey Moniak has a .351 OPS over the last 15 days in 37 AB. That is 0.414 below his .765 season mark.
COOLING OFFKC @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: .523 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jeremy Pena has a .523 OPS over the last 15 days in 58 AB. That is 0.245 below his .768 season baseline.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKOAK @ TB
Henry Bolte: 1.013 OPS in Last 15 Days
Henry Bolte has a 1.013 OPS over the last 15 days across 55 AB. That is a 0.259 swing from his .754 season baseline.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKSEA @ LAA
Cal Raleigh: .957 OPS in Last 15 Days
Cal Raleigh has a .957 OPS over the last 15 days in 49 AB. That is 0.292 above his .665 season mark.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
STREAKPHI @ WSH
WSH have won 4 straight
WSH have taken 4 straight and own a +6 run differential over the run. Last 10: 4-6.
P team lost 3-0
COOLING OFFSF @ STL
Jordan Walker: .578 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Anthony Molina
Jordan Walker has a .578 OPS over the last 15 days across 49 AB, down 0.242 from his .820 season mark. He draws RHP Anthony Molina tonight and has a .799 OPS vs. RHP across 417 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATPhillies @ Nationals
Kyle Schwarber
Gary's Take Schwarber is the most dangerous power bat in this game by a wide margin, and even though his batting average has cooled this month, the home runs haven't stopped, three in his last seven days and four over his last fifteen games. That's a hitter still squaring up the baseball even while the average slumps, which is exactly the profile I want for a home run bet.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATMariners @ Angels
Randy Arozarena
Gary's Take Arozarena has three home runs in 28 career at-bats against Kikuchi, a rate that jumps out even next to a season where he already has 25. He hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching this year, .295 with an .889 OPS and eight homers in 149 at-bats against lefties, and Kikuchi is exactly that, a left-hander who has already allowed seven home runs in eleven starts back from his shoulder injury.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
STREAKOAK @ TB
TB games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 7.5 runs a night against an average line of 9.8. Tonight's number sits at 12.5.
P final total 7 vs 12.5
STREAKOAK @ TB
TB have won 4 straight
TB have taken 4 straight and own a +14 run differential over the run. Last 10: 8-2.
P team won 3-4
COOLING OFFPHI @ WSH
Bryson Stott: .387 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bryson Stott has a .387 OPS over the last 15 days in 41 AB. That is 0.331 below his .718 season mark.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFATL @ CHC
Seiya Suzuki: .594 OPS in L15 — draws RHP JR Ritchie
Seiya Suzuki's .594 OPS over the last 15 days (47 AB) trails his .839 season mark, down 0.245. Tonight he draws RHP JR Ritchie — his weaker side: a .793 OPS vs RHP across 380 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFKC @ HOU
Christian Walker: .451 OPS in Last 15 Days
Christian Walker has a .451 OPS over the last 15 days in 49 AB. That is 0.265 below his .716 season mark.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFSF @ STL
Jung Hoo Lee: .484 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Matthew Liberatore
Jung Hoo Lee has a .484 OPS over the last 15 days across 49 AB, down 0.234 from his .718 season mark. He draws LHP Matthew Liberatore tonight and has a .635 OPS vs. LHP across 155 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATWhite Sox @ Guardians
Randal Grichuk
Gary's Take Grichuk is the hottest hitter in either lineup right now, batting .400 with a 1.204 OPS in September and going 8-for-15 with two home runs over his last seven days. The matchup only helps: he's a .317 hitter against left-handers with a .989 OPS and nine home runs in 145 at-bats this season, and he draws left-hander Parker Messick this afternoon.
P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 4 TB
HR THREATGiants @ Cardinals
Bryce Eldridge
Gary's Take This one is a long shot by price, not by logic. Eldridge already has 17 home runs this season, and he's getting there in an unusual way for a left-handed hitter — he actually carries a better OPS against left-handed pitching (.880 in 118 at-bats, with six of those seventeen homers) than his overall season line.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMSEA @ LAA
Yusei Kikuchi: 1.59 ERA over his last 3 starts
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 3 earned runs over 17 innings in his last 3 starts, posting a 1.59 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Those marks compare with his 4.75 season ERA and 1.49 season WHIP entering SEA at LAA.
P 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
REGRESSIONDET @ TOR
Brett Bateman: .328 AVG vs .258 xBA
Brett Bateman is hitting .328 versus a .258 xBA over 153 plate appearances, with a .366 wOBA against a .305 xwOBA. Both expected marks trail his results entering DET at TOR, but the facts do not establish tonight’s direction.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFCHW @ CLE
Jose Ramirez: .427 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Anthony Kay
Jose Ramirez's .427 OPS over the last 15 days (52 AB) trails his .676 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws LHP Anthony Kay — his stronger side: a .846 OPS vs LHP across 120 AB.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · SEP 17
BDL lists 1 verified FBS-vs-FBS game on the next college slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
HEAD-TO-HEADBAL @ NYM
Orioles are 2-0 vs Mets this season
Baltimore is 2-0 against the Mets across two meetings this season, including a 7-5 win last time. With only two games and no pitcher or venue context, that record offers little explanation for tonight in New York.
UPCOMING GAMESNFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 17
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ CLE
White Sox are 7-5 vs Guardians this season
The White Sox are 7-5 against Cleveland across 12 meetings this season, though Cleveland won the last one 7-6. No pitcher, venue or game-by-game context is supplied to explain the edge or connect it to tonight in Cleveland.
REGRESSIONSF @ STL
Jonah Cox: .278 AVG vs .208 xBA
Over 127 plate appearances, Jonah Cox has a .278 AVG against a .208 xBA, while his .326 wOBA is above a .258 xwOBA. Both expected marks trail his results, showing the contact-results gap entering SF at STL, but not establishing which way it moves tonight.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMMIA @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
Merrill Kelly has allowed 4 earned runs with 14 strikeouts over 17.1 innings in his last 3 starts. His 2.08 ERA in that span is 2.9 runs below his 4.97 season ERA entering MIA at ARI.
P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
STARTER FORMBOS @ TEX
MacKenzie Gore: 7.30 ERA over his last 3 starts
MacKenzie Gore has allowed 10 earned runs in 12.1 innings across his last 3 starts, producing a 7.30 ERA and 2.27 WHIP. Those marks compare with his 4.62 season ERA and 1.35 season WHIP entering BOS at TEX.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
STARTER FORMDET @ TOR
Keider Montero: 6.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
Keider Montero has allowed 9 earned runs and 14 hits over 13.1 innings in his last 3 starts. His 6.08 ERA in that span is 2.52 runs above his 3.55 season ERA entering DET at TOR.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
STARTER FORMATL @ CHC
JR Ritchie: 7.07 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.07 ERA over his last 14 innings with a 1.71 WHIP (1.43 season) — the 4.50 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
STARTER FORMMIL @ PIT
Jared Jones: 1.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jared Jones has worked 17.2 innings with 3 earned runs and 23 strikeouts over his last 3 starts. His 1.53 ERA in that span is 2.57 runs below his 4.10 season ERA entering MIL @ PIT.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
REGRESSIONOAK @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .308 AVG vs .260 xBA
Chandler Simpson is hitting .308 versus a .260 xBA over 576 plate appearances, with a .308 wOBA against a .265 xwOBA. The larger sample still shows results ahead of contact-quality marks entering OAK at TB, without establishing that the gap closes tonight.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/16
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on the 60-day IL with a rib injury. His listed return date is today, and he carries a 3.18 ERA, but that date is only a roster listing. WATCH — I’m not burning a season-long stash on a reliever without more certainty.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/16
Ryne Nelson
Nelson is on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury. His listed return date is today, but his season ERA is 4.97. PASS — the proximity alone doesn’t justify the stash for me.
BALLPARKOAK @ TB
At Tropicana Field, Nick Martinez pitches to a 3.92 ERA
Nick Martinez has a 3.92 ERA in 14 games and 80.1 innings at Tropicana Field, where hitters bat .268 against him. His ERA is 1.99 across 86.0 innings elsewhere, making the venue the less favorable side of his supplied split entering OAK-TB.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
PARK WEATHERSD @ COL
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Coors Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Coors Field — Partly Cloudy, 76°, wind 10 mph, In From LF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 11.
P final total 12 vs 11 (under lean)
PARK WEATHERNYY @ MIN
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Target Field tonight
Target Field is forecast at 71° and partly cloudy tonight, with a 10 mph wind blowing in from right field. The NYY-MIN total is 5.5, but no park or air comparison is supplied.
P final total 9 vs 5.5 (under lean)
REGRESSIONSD @ COL
Ty France: .295 AVG vs .256 xBA
Across 451 plate appearances, Ty France carries a .295 average versus a .256 xBA. His wOBA sits at .375 against a .335 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
BALLPARKSEA @ LAA
In 3 games at Angel Stadium, Yusei Kikuchi pitches to a 3.00 ERA
Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.00 ERA in 3 games and 18.0 innings at Angel Stadium, where hitters bat .242 against him. His ERA is 5.66 across 35.0 innings elsewhere, though the home sample entering SEA-LAA is limited to three games.
P 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
REGRESSIONSEA @ LAA
Wade Meckler: .297 AVG vs .261 xBA
Across 289 plate appearances, Wade Meckler carries a .297 average versus a .261 xBA. His wOBA sits at .342 against a .315 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
RETURN WATCHDET — return listed 9/18
Burch Smith
Smith is on the Tigers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury. His listed return date is September 18, and he carries a 3.18 ERA. A speculative IL stash in deeper leagues, but not a must-hold reliever.
REGRESSIONLAD @ CIN
Will Smith: .236 AVG vs .268 xBA
Will Smith is hitting .236 versus a .268 xBA across 244 plate appearances, while his .316 wOBA trails a .377 xwOBA. Both contact-quality marks exceed his results entering LAD at CIN, but the facts do not establish a rebound tonight.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
RUNNING GAMENYY @ MIN
Green light: New York Yankees run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 11%
The Yankees average 1 stolen base per game and have 146 this season. Ryan Jeffers has thrown out 7 of 62 runners for an 11% caught-stealing rate.
P New York Yankees stole 2 bases
BALLPARKMIA @ ARI
Merrill Kelly owns a 5.83 ERA at Chase Field — 4.36 everywhere else
Merrill Kelly has a 5.83 ERA in 12 games and 63.1 innings at Chase Field, where hitters bat .279 against him. His ERA is 4.36 across 88.2 innings at other parks, making home the weaker side of his supplied split entering MIA-ARI.
P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
REGRESSIONOAK @ TB
Jonny DeLuca: .263 AVG vs .236 xBA
Jonny DeLuca is hitting .263 versus a .236 xBA over 325 plate appearances, with a .310 wOBA against a .265 xwOBA. Both expected marks trail his results entering OAK at TB, but the facts do not establish that the gap closes tonight.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
FIRST INNINGBOS @ TEX
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of BOS @ TEX
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 3 of 10 sampled TEX games and 3 of 10 sampled BOS games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — MacKenzie Gore: 3.77 ERA, .224 opponent AVG across 31.0 IP, 5 HR; Jake Bennett: 1.50 ERA, .150 opponent AVG across 18.0 IP, 0 HR.
P 1st inning: 2-1 (3 runs)
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/18
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the Dodgers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury, with a listed return date of September 18. With no season line available and that date only two days away, I’m treating it as a roster listing—not a promise. Stash only if you have an open IL spot; otherwise wait for activation.
FIRST INNINGMIA @ ARI
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
MIA scored in the first inning in 0 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Merrill Kelly: 4.33 ERA, .278 opponent AVG across 27.0 IP, 3 HR; Ryan Gusto: 2.81 ERA, .250 opponent AVG across 16.0 IP, 1 HR.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — William Contreras (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pittsburgh averages 0.8 stolen bases per game. William Contreras has thrown out 24 of 70 runners for a 34% caught-stealing rate, the strongest throwing mark supplied here.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
BALLPARKMIL @ PIT
Jared Jones owns a 4.60 ERA at PNC Park — 3.54 everywhere else
Jared Jones has a 4.60 ERA in 9 games and 45.0 innings at PNC Park, though hitters bat .201 against him there. His ERA is 3.54 across 40.2 innings elsewhere, showing a home-road ERA gap without establishing the park as the cause.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
REGRESSIONMIA @ ARI
Javier Sanoja: .292 AVG vs .272 xBA
Javier Sanoja's .292 average comes against a .272 expected (xBA) on 448 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .339 against a .294 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/21
Lucas Giolito
Giolito is on the Padres’ 60-day IL with an elbow injury. His listed return date is September 21, and his season ERA is 5.16. Leave him on the wire outside deep leagues; the IL status and 5.16 ERA make this a low-priority stash.
RETURN WATCHBAL — return listed 9/21
Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle is on the Orioles’ 60-day IL with an oblique injury, with a listed return date of September 21. His season OPS is .690. Stash in deeper formats if the IL spot is free; otherwise I need activation before buying in.
BALLPARKDET @ TOR
Max Scherzer's ERA jumps to 6.75 at Rogers Centre
Max Scherzer has a 6.75 ERA in 10 games and 44.0 innings at Rogers Centre, where hitters bat .241 against him. His ERA is also elevated elsewhere at 5.70 across 23.2 innings, so the supplied split does not isolate the venue as the only issue entering DET-TOR.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONSF @ STL
San Francisco Giants are 15-27 in one-run games (.357 win rate)
San Francisco Giants are 15-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (42 completed games). They are 48-62 in their other 110 completed games.
REGRESSIONDET @ TOR
Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games (.357 win rate)
Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (42 completed games). They are 57-52 in their other 109 completed games.
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ TEX
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Danny Jansen has caught just 15%
Boston averages 0.9 stolen-base attempts per game. Danny Jansen has thrown out 6 of 40 runners this season for a 15% caught-stealing rate.
P Boston Red Sox stole 2 bases
FIRST INNINGSF @ STL
SF strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
SF scored in the first inning in 7 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Matthew Liberatore: 5.90 ERA, .286 opponent AVG across 29.0 IP, 7 HR.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BATTER VS ARMPHI @ WSH
Zack Wheeler vs James Wood: 1-for-12, 7 K
Zack Wheeler has held James Wood to 1-for-12 (.083) with seven strikeouts in 12 career at-bats. They meet again tonight in PHI @ WSH.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Graded results

Games

L
Diamondbacks ML -134
MLB · 4-3
L
Angels ML +120
MLB · 7-2
W
Cubs ML -156
MLB · 4-8
W
Guardians ML -164
MLB · 3-6
L
Tigers ML +112
MLB · 1-5
W
Giants ML +136
MLB · 6-5
L
Astros ML -162
MLB · 5-2
W
Rays ML -180
MLB · 3-4
W
Phillies ML -196
MLB · 3-0
L
Dodgers -1.5 -130
MLB · 2-6
W
Brewers ML -126
MLB · 5-4
L
New York Mets ML -118
MLB · 7-1
L
Yankees ML -152
MLB · 4-5
L
Red Sox ML -108
MLB · 3-7
W
Padres ML -166
MLB · 9-3

Props

L
Anthony Kay · over
White Sox @ Guardians · Actual 0
W
Austin Hedges · over
White Sox @ Guardians · Actual 1
L
Brady Basso · under
Athletics @ Rays · Actual 4
W
Brandon Lowe · over
Brewers @ Pirates · Actual 5
L
Brandon Valenzuela · under
Tigers @ Blue Jays · Actual 2
L
Bryce Eldridge · over
Giants @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Bryce Eldridge · over
Giants @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Chris Bassitt · over
Orioles @ Mets · Actual 5
L
Corey Seager · over
Red Sox @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Cristian Javier · over
Royals @ Astros · Actual 2
W
Daulton Varsho · under
Royals @ Astros · Actual 1
L
Donovan Walton · over
Athletics @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Braves @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Dylan Crews · over
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 1
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Dodgers @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Padres @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Orioles @ Mets · Actual 0
L
George Kirby · over
Mariners @ Angels · Actual 5
L
Jackson Chourio · over
Brewers @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Jahmai Jones · under
Red Sox @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Jeremy Pena · over
Royals @ Astros · Actual 0
L
John Peck · over
Tigers @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
W
JR Ritchie · over
Braves @ Cubs · Actual 6
W
Juan Brito · over
Dodgers @ Reds · Actual 4
L
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Tigers @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Keibert Ruiz · over
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Logan Henderson · over
Brewers @ Pirates · Actual 8
L
Matthew Liberatore · over
Giants @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Matt Olson · over
Braves @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Merrill Kelly · over
Marlins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2
L
Merrill Kelly · under
Marlins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 9
L
Mookie Betts · over
Dodgers @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Nolan Arenado · over
Marlins @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Randal Grichuk · over
White Sox @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Randy Arozarena · over
Mariners @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Rece Hinds · under
Orioles @ Mets · Actual 1
W
Robbie Ray · over
Padres @ Rockies · Actual 2
W
Trevor Story · over
Red Sox @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Victor Mesa Jr. · over
Athletics @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Xander Bogaerts · under
Padres @ Rockies · Actual 1
W
Yusei Kikuchi · under
Mariners @ Angels · Actual 4