Orioles at Mets
O/U 8.5 · RL Orioles -1.5 · Citi Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- New York Mets ML -118
- Published odds
- -118
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 7-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 17 moves| Market | Opened Sep 16 5:00 AM | Close Sep 16 6:49 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Orioles +1.5 (-171) | Orioles -1.5 (+156) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8.5 (-122) | 9 (-111) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Mets -149 | Mets -115 | +34 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 16 5:00 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-171) | 8.5 (-122) | Mets -149 · Orioles +123 |
| Sep 16 7:15 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-172) | 8.5 (-122) | Mets -149 · Orioles +123 |
| Sep 16 8:00 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-171) | 9 (-101) | Mets -144 · Orioles +119 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-180) | 9 (-101) | Mets -138 · Orioles +115 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-180) | 9 (-101) | Mets -138 · Orioles +115 |
| Sep 16 11:00 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-186) | 9 (-101) | Mets -135 · Orioles +112 |
| Sep 16 3:02 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+160) | 9 (-108) | Mets -120 · Orioles +100 |
| Sep 16 3:14 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+159) | 9 (-108) | Mets -120 · Orioles +100 |
| Sep 16 3:31 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+162) | 9 (-108) | Mets -120 · Orioles +100 |
| Sep 16 3:44 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+162) | 9 (-108) | Mets -120 · Orioles +100 |
| Sep 16 4:30 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+161) | 9 (-108) | Mets -120 · Orioles +100 |
| Sep 16 4:47 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+161) | 9 (-108) | Mets -120 · Orioles +100 |
| Sep 16 4:58 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+160) | 9 (-108) | Mets -119 · Orioles -101 |
| Sep 16 5:18 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+162) | 9 (-108) | Mets -119 · Orioles -101 |
| Sep 16 6:10 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+156) | 9 (-110) | Mets -116 · Orioles -104 |
| Sep 16 6:24 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+154) | 9 (-113) | Mets -115 · Orioles -105 |
| Sep 16 6:37 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+155) | 9 (-113) | Mets -115 · Orioles -105 |
| CLOSESep 16 6:49 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+156) | 9 (-111) | Mets -115 · Orioles -105 |
The read
Citi Field, game three, and the Orioles are one win from a sweep while Pete Alonso keeps taking curtain calls in the visitors' dugout. Baltimore hands the ball to Chris Bassitt, and the Mets counter with Xzavion Curry, a reliever making an emergency start after Robert Stock hit the injured list this afternoon.
My pick rides on one thing: this Mets lineup was built to hit Chris Bassitt. New York runs out five left-handed bats plus Francisco Lindor from the left side, and Bassitt has allowed an .888 OPS to lefties over 212 at-bats this season against a .685 OPS to righties. His most-used pitch is a sinker at 37.9 percent usage with a .377 xwOBA, and Juan Soto, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, and Lindor all post .335 or better xwOBA against sinkers this year. Soto carries a 1.000 OPS against right-handers and a 1.017 OPS at home. Bassitt has been steadier since coming back in August, but he has also walked 14 in 34 innings over that stretch, and walks plus lefties plus sinkers is how innings turn into crooked numbers. On the other side, Baltimore's lineup against a righty is at its weakest: Coby Mayo hits .170 with a .551 OPS against right-handers over 241 at-bats, Christian Encarnacion-Strand sits at .621, and Jackson Holliday and Leody Taveras are not in tonight's order. Alonso is the one bat I fear, with a .486 xwOBA against four-seamers, but one hitter does not carry nine innings.
The best argument against me is obvious: Curry has never thrown more than 62 pitches in a big-league game this year, and the Mets lost Daniel Duarte and his 2.12 ERA to the injured list today with Senga and Pintaro on back-to-back days. That is a real hole from the fifth inning on. I took the Mets anyway because Baltimore's pen is not fresh either. They used seven relievers in Tuesday's 11-inning game, Grant Wolfram has pitched three of the last four days, and Rico Garcia is on a back-to-back. Both teams are bullpen-vulnerable tonight, so the game gets decided by which lineup fits the opposing starter, and that is the Mets by a wide margin. At -118 the market is treating this as a coin flip. I see a home team with a specific, large-sample matchup edge against a pitcher whose arsenal plays into its hands.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Orioles are 2-0 vs Mets this season
2-0Baltimore is 2-0 against the Mets across two meetings this season, including a 7-5 win last time. With only two games and no pitcher or venue context, that record offers little explanation for tonight in New York.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 16, 2026 at 11:04 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKCHRIS BASSITTPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5
Bassitt draws a Mets lineup built to give him exactly this kind of night. Five left-handed bats plus a switch-hitter leading off in Lindor, and lefties have hit .321 with an .888 OPS and 8 home runs in 212 at-bats against him this season, against just .265/.685 from the right side. His two most-used pitches back that up — the sinker, thrown 37.9 percent of the time, carries a .340 average and .377 xwOBA against it, and the cutter behind it is worse at .318/.410. Those two pitches make up more than half his mix, and hitters are squaring both of them up all year.
He's also been the worse version of himself away from Camden Yards this season, a 6.13 ERA on the road against 3.55 at home, and he's the visitor tonight. Over his last three starts he's gone 16.1 innings for 10 earned runs, a 5.51 ERA, and he's allowed six or more hits in five of his last eight outings, including one turn where it came in just three innings of work. He's averaging 6.1 hits allowed a start over 16 turns this season. With this matchup and this pitch mix, I don't need him to have a bad night to clear the number — I need him to have a normal one.
- GARY'S PICKRECE HINDSHITS UNDER 0.5
Hinds is a .149 hitter for the season who's gone cold at the worst time — hitless in five straight in this sample, 0-for-3 in this series, 0-for-7 over his last week. He's in the eight-hole tonight with only 2.7 plate appearances a game, so there isn't much volume even on a good night.
His numbers are better against right-handers than lefties, .231 to .048, and Curry is a righty, but that's a low bar to clear — an upgrade from dreadful to still below replacement. Over his last 15 games he's managed a hit in only four of them.
This is a bat in a real slump without much playing time behind it, and at essentially even money I'll take the under.
- THE LONG SHOTFRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5
Lindor switch-hits, which means he steps in left-handed against the right-handed Bassitt tonight, and that's the side that has done real damage to him all season — left-handed batters are hitting .321 with an .888 OPS against Bassitt, with 8 home runs in just 212 at-bats, against only 2 homers in 151 at-bats from the right side. Lindor himself has hit 15 of his 20 home runs this year against right-handed pitching, and he's 5-for-17 with a homer against Bassitt in his career.
He's swinging it well right now too, three home runs in his last seven days and six over his last fifteen games. Bassitt has allowed a home run in six of his last eight starts, and Lindor leads off, giving him more plate appearances than anyone in this lineup tonight, four and a half a game, which means the most looks at that vulnerable arm before New York even gets to the rest of the order.
The series has been quiet for him, just one hit in nine at-bats, but nothing about the underlying matchup says that continues. At plus-510 I'm not asking for a guarantee, just a hot hitter catching a pitcher on the wrong side of his own platoon split.
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