Tigers at Blue Jays
O/U 6.5 · RL Blue Jays -3.5 · Rogers Centre
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tigers ML +112
- Published odds
- +112
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 1-5
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 10 moves| Market | Opened Sep 16 5:00 AM | Close Sep 16 3:02 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Blue Jays -1.5 (+163) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+161) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8.5 (-105) | 8.5 (-105) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Blue Jays -127 | Blue Jays -131 | −4 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 16 5:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+163) | 8.5 (-105) | Blue Jays -127 · Tigers +105 |
| Sep 16 9:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+163) | 8.5 (-105) | Blue Jays -126 · Tigers +105 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+153) | 8.5 (-102) | Blue Jays -137 · Tigers +114 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+153) | 8.5 (-102) | Blue Jays -137 · Tigers +114 |
| Sep 16 11:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+153) | 8.5 (-105) | Blue Jays -137 · Tigers +114 |
| Sep 16 12:01 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+157) | 8.5 (-105) | Blue Jays -137 · Tigers +114 |
| Sep 16 12:01 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+157) | 8.5 (-105) | Blue Jays -137 · Tigers +114 |
| Sep 16 12:14 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+161) | 8.5 (-104) | Blue Jays -132 · Tigers +110 |
| Sep 16 12:40 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+161) | 8.5 (-104) | Blue Jays -132 · Tigers +109 |
| Sep 16 1:10 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+161) | 8.5 (-104) | Blue Jays -132 · Tigers +109 |
| CLOSESep 16 3:02 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+161) | 8.5 (-105) | Blue Jays -131 · Tigers +109 |
The read
The series finale is set at Rogers Centre, with Detroit chasing the sweep and Toronto looking to answer back. I’m taking Detroit at +112, and the strongest reason is how its confirmed lineup matches Scherzer’s results against left-handed hitters. He has allowed an .848 OPS to lefties compared with .624 to righties. Kevin McGonigle, Colt Keith and Riley Greene give Detroit left-handed bats throughout the upper part of the order, with Max Clark and Brett Callahan adding more. That matchup gives me a concrete reason to back the underdog beyond simply comparing the starters’ ERAs.
Montero’s 1.03 WHIP against Scherzer’s 1.37 strengthens that read: Detroit’s starter has allowed fewer baserunners, and Toronto’s right-handed hitters face his stronger season split. Montero has allowed a .570 OPS to righties versus .672 to lefties. Detroit’s recent offensive results also have some support in the quality of its contact. Over the last three games, its hard-hit rate was 39.0%, compared with Toronto’s 25.6%. That is a small sample, so it supports the current form without establishing a new offensive baseline. The series has included a close Detroit win and a blowout; today’s pitching and lineup matchup carry more weight for me than the opportunity to finish a sweep.
The strongest argument against Detroit is Toronto keeping the game close behind Scherzer and then turning to Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers. Neither pitched yesterday, so the Blue Jays have a plausible late-inning answer despite the work demanded of other relievers. Detroit also has to account for Kyle Finnegan’s consecutive appearances. But Tyler Holton and Kenley Jansen were unused yesterday, giving the Tigers their own potential route through the closing innings. I respect Toronto’s bullpen counterargument. At +112, though, Detroit’s lineup fit and Montero’s lower baserunner allowance outweigh it for me.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Keider Montero: 6.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
6.08Keider Montero has allowed 9 earned runs and 14 hits over 13.1 innings in his last 3 starts. His 6.08 ERA in that span is 2.52 runs above his 3.55 season ERA entering DET at TOR.
PLATOON EDGE
Brett Bateman (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
.936Brett Bateman's vs. Right line (.936 OPS, 84 AB) sits well above his .629 mark the other way (50 AB). Tonight's starter Keider Montero throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
Josh Smith (bats L) draws Keider Montero (RHP), batting 6th
.741Josh Smith carries a .741 OPS in 154 AB vs. Right, compared with .254 in 27 AB the other way. He bats 6th tonight against RHP Keider Montero.
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Keider Montero (RHP)
.758Nathan Lukes owns a .758 OPS in 305 AB vs. Right, compared with .493 in 68 AB the other way. He bats 2nd for TOR tonight against RHP Keider Montero.
HEAT CHECK
Riley Greene: 1.157 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.157The last 15 days sample runs 53 AB: a 1.157 OPS versus .854 for the season, 0.303 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season.
BALLPARK
Max Scherzer's ERA jumps to 6.75 at Rogers Centre
6.75Max Scherzer has a 6.75 ERA in 10 games and 44.0 innings at Rogers Centre, where hitters bat .241 against him. His ERA is also elevated elsewhere at 5.70 across 23.2 innings, so the supplied split does not isolate the venue as the only issue entering DET-TOR.
REGRESSION
Brett Bateman: .328 AVG vs .258 xBA
.258Brett Bateman is hitting .328 versus a .258 xBA over 153 plate appearances, with a .366 wOBA against a .305 xwOBA. Both expected marks trail his results entering DET at TOR, but the facts do not establish tonight’s direction.
Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games (.357 win rate)
15-27Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (42 completed games). They are 57-52 in their other 109 completed games.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 16, 2026 at 11:04 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, fanduel, betmgm, draftkings, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKBRANDON VALENZUELAH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Brandon Valenzuela is 1-for-13 over his last two weeks, a .077 average, and this number has gone over in just two of his last fifteen games. He doesn't run, so there's no other way for him to add to this line besides the bat, and right now the bat isn't doing much — a .659 OPS on the season that's trending colder, not warmer. He's catching against Keider Montero, a 1.03 WHIP starter who doesn't hand out extra baserunners, and Valenzuela sits at the bottom of a Toronto lineup that's dropped two straight to Detroit and is trying to avoid a sweep. Betting against two combined hits, runs, and RBIs from a cold-streak catcher hitting eighth is the right side of this number for me.
- GARY'S PICKJOHN PECKH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
John Peck hits ninth for Detroit, but that spot is doing leadoff work in this lineup with Kevin McGonigle standing right behind him — Peck's getting on base at a .370 clip, with six walks in just 37 at-bats and four stolen bases to go with it. This number has cashed in seven of his last eleven games.
The matchup helps: Max Scherzer is running a 7.59 ERA in September and has allowed a run in four of his last five starts, so a hitter who works counts and puts the ball in play doesn't need much to get on the stat sheet tonight. Detroit is scoring 8.2 runs a game over its last five, and Peck sits right in the middle of that traffic every time through the order.
I like buying one hit, run, or RBI from him at this price.
- THE LONG SHOTKAZUMA OKAMOTOHR OVER 0.5
Kazuma Okamoto has 33 home runs this season and he's been the one Toronto bat still doing damage through this slide — a 1.075 OPS with four homers over his last fifteen days, and September has been his best month yet at a 1.039 OPS. He's already gone deep once in this series.
He gets a Detroit starter working on six days of rest coming off a rough finish to his last turn through the rotation: six earned runs in four innings against Cleveland on September 4, including a grand slam, and two more home runs allowed his next time out against Minnesota. Okamoto has cleared this number in six of his last fifteen games.
At plus-money on a hitter swinging it this well, I want a piece of the shot.
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