Phillies at Nationals

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  KEIBERT RUIZH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBWashington Nationals· -147

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Ruiz catches Jared Simpson tonight in what amounts to a bullpen game for Washington, and he's the National hitter I trust most to reach base or drive somebody in regardless of who's on the mound. He's been red hot, five hits in his last eleven at-bats with an OPS over 1.300 this past week, on top of a similarly strong stretch over his last fifteen games. He's a switch hitter producing almost identically from both sides of the plate this year, .289 against lefties and .290 against righties, so he isn't exposed to the platoon matchup that could bother some of his teammates against Wheeler tonight. He's also hit Wheeler well over his career, eight hits in thirty at-bats with three home runs. A hit, run, or RBI is a low bar for a catcher swinging it like this, and I'll lay the price.

  ×

  Keibert Ruiz
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -147 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Washington Nationals

  Read Gary’s Take

  Ruiz catches Jared Simpson tonight in what amounts to a bullpen game for Washington, and he's the National hitter I trust most to reach base or drive somebody in regardless of who's on the mound. He's been red hot, five hits in his last eleven at-bats with an OPS over 1.300 this past week, on top of a similarly strong stretch over his last fifteen games.

  He's a switch hitter producing almost identically from both sides of the plate this year, .289 against lefties and .290 against righties, so he isn't exposed to the platoon matchup that could bother some of his teammates against Wheeler tonight. He's also hit Wheeler well over his career, eight hits in thirty at-bats with three home runs.

  A hit, run, or RBI is a low bar for a catcher swinging it like this, and I'll lay the price.

• THE LONG SHOT

  KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

  MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +326

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Schwarber is the most dangerous power bat in this game by a wide margin, and even though his batting average has cooled this month, the home runs haven't stopped, three in his last seven days and four over his last fifteen games. That's a hitter still squaring up the baseball even while the average slumps, which is exactly the profile I want for a home run bet. He's never faced Jared Simpson in the big leagues, so there's no track record to lean on there, but Simpson's fastball and sinker have both gotten hit hard in his brief look at this level, and Schwarber doesn't need much of a mistake to leave the yard. He can still do damage against lefties generally, fourteen home runs in under two hundred at-bats against left-handed pitching this season. The wind is blowing out to center tonight at Nationals Park, which doesn't hurt either. At plus money for the game's biggest power threat, I want this one.

  ×

  Kyle Schwarber
  HR over 0.5

  +326 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Philadelphia Phillies

  Read Gary’s Take

  Schwarber is the most dangerous power bat in this game by a wide margin, and even though his batting average has cooled this month, the home runs haven't stopped, three in his last seven days and four over his last fifteen games. That's a hitter still squaring up the baseball even while the average slumps, which is exactly the profile I want for a home run bet.

  He's never faced Jared Simpson in the big leagues, so there's no track record to lean on there, but Simpson's fastball and sinker have both gotten hit hard in his brief look at this level, and Schwarber doesn't need much of a mistake to leave the yard. He can still do damage against lefties generally, fourteen home runs in under two hundred at-bats against left-handed pitching this season.

  The wind is blowing out to center tonight at Nationals Park, which doesn't hurt either. At plus money for the game's biggest power threat, I want this one.

• GARY'S PICK

  DYLAN CREWSH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBWashington Nationals· -164

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Crews sees more plate appearances than almost anyone in this Washington lineup, and volume matters on a bet this simple. He's produced a hit, run, or RBI in eleven of his last fifteen games, and over the past week he's six for twenty-four with a home run. My hesitation is the matchup: he's a right-handed bat facing a right-handed pitcher who has been considerably tougher on righties than lefties this season, and Crews has struggled against right-handed pitching all year himself. But he still gets roughly four trips to the plate tonight, most of them likely to come after Wheeler is out of the game, and this Washington lineup has been finding ways to produce even without loud contact. The recent form and the at-bat volume are enough for me to take the over, even with the platoon working against him early.

  ×

  Dylan Crews
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -164 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Washington Nationals

  Read Gary’s Take

  Crews sees more plate appearances than almost anyone in this Washington lineup, and volume matters on a bet this simple. He's produced a hit, run, or RBI in eleven of his last fifteen games, and over the past week he's six for twenty-four with a home run.

  My hesitation is the matchup: he's a right-handed bat facing a right-handed pitcher who has been considerably tougher on righties than lefties this season, and Crews has struggled against right-handed pitching all year himself. But he still gets roughly four trips to the plate tonight, most of them likely to come after Wheeler is out of the game, and this Washington lineup has been finding ways to produce even without loud contact.

  The recent form and the at-bat volume are enough for me to take the over, even with the platoon working against him early.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.