Braves at Cubs
O/U 7.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cubs ML -156
- Published odds
- -156
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 4-8
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 11 moves| Market | Opened Sep 16 5:00 AM | Close Sep 16 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Cubs -1.5 (+144) | Cubs -1.5 (+135) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-119) | 7.5 (-105) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Cubs -143 | Cubs -170 | −27 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 16 5:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+144) | 7.5 (-119) | Cubs -143 · Braves +119 |
| Sep 16 6:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+145) | 8 (-101) | Cubs -143 · Braves +119 |
| Sep 16 7:15 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+145) | 7.5 (-119) | Cubs -143 · Braves +119 |
| Sep 16 8:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+145) | 8 (-101) | Cubs -143 · Braves +119 |
| Sep 16 9:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+149) | 7.5 (-108) | Cubs -143 · Braves +119 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+141) | 7.5 (-108) | Cubs -162 · Braves +134 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+141) | 7.5 (-108) | Cubs -162 · Braves +134 |
| Sep 16 12:40 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+139) | 7.5 (-105) | Cubs -164 · Braves +135 |
| Sep 16 3:02 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+138) | 7.5 (-105) | Cubs -167 · Braves +138 |
| Sep 16 6:10 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+138) | 7.5 (-105) | Cubs -167 · Braves +137 |
| Sep 16 7:12 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+135) | 7.5 (-107) | Cubs -167 · Braves +137 |
| CLOSESep 16 7:30 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+135) | 7.5 (-105) | Cubs -170 · Braves +140 |
The read
Rubber game under the lights at Wrigley, and it's a rematch nobody's talking about: Shota Imanaga and JR Ritchie squared off on May 13 in Atlanta, and tonight they do it again with the series tied 1-1. Two things carry this pick for me. First, Ritchie hasn't thrown a major-league pitch since August 2. He's walked 25 of the 127 left-handed hitters he's faced this season and allowed a .793 OPS to them, and Chicago runs five lefties at him tonight including Pete Crow-Armstrong, who owns a 1.021 OPS at home. Even in that May start where the Cubs only scored once off him, Ritchie walked three and was gone in the fifth. Second, Imanaga's one real weakness is the long ball at this park, and the wind is blowing in from left at 8 mph. He walked nobody in seven innings against this same Braves core in May, and his last two starts were 12 innings, 3 earned runs, 2 walks.
The best argument against me is Atlanta's bullpen and its bats. Raisel Iglesias has 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA and only threw 15 pitches last night, Dylan Dodd is fresh with a 2.38 ERA, and Acuña, Albies, and Baldwin all left the yard yesterday. Imanaga's home and night ERAs sit above 4.00 on real samples. I hear it. But to hand a lead to Iglesias and Dodd, Atlanta has to bridge four or five innings after a short Ritchie start, and AJ Smith-Shawver already threw five innings Monday. That leaves Ray Kerr, Brent Suter, Dylan Lee, and Victor Mederos in the middle, and Lee and Mederos combined for seven earned runs without recording three outs on Saturday. Chicago's pen is nothing special, but only Edward Cabrera carried a heavy load last night, and the Cubs' offense at 5.3 runs a game doesn't need much help against a starter who gives away free bases.
Ritchie's ERA is also outrunning his expected numbers by more than half a run, which tells me the market is paying for a fragile number on the Atlanta side. That's context for the price, not tonight's verdict. The verdict is a rested, proven lefty who's handled this lineup before against a rookie coming off six weeks in Triple-A into the wrong platoon matchup on the road. Cubs on the moneyline.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
JR Ritchie: 7.07 ERA over his last 3 starts
7.07He is carrying a 7.07 ERA over his last 14 innings with a 1.71 WHIP (1.43 season) — the 4.50 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
HEAT CHECK
Alex Bregman: 1.302 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.302Alex Bregman has a 1.302 OPS over the last 15 days in 52 AB. That is a 0.502 swing from his .800 season baseline.
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 1.083 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.083Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 1.083 OPS over the last 15 days in 54 AB. That is 0.293 above his .790 season mark.
COOLING OFF
Matt Olson: .397 OPS in Last 15 Days
.397Matt Olson has a .397 OPS over the last 15 days in 53 AB. That is 0.431 below his .828 season baseline.
Seiya Suzuki: .594 OPS in L15 — draws RHP JR Ritchie
.594Seiya Suzuki's .594 OPS over the last 15 days (47 AB) trails his .839 season mark, down 0.245. Tonight he draws RHP JR Ritchie — his weaker side: a .793 OPS vs RHP across 380 AB.
TEAM RECORD
Cubs 6-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts
6-2Cubs are 6-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 16, 2026 at 11:04 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKJR RITCHIEPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
Ritchie has cleared this number in seven of his eight starts, and tonight brings a difficult return assignment after 44 days between major-league starts. Chicago can send three left-handed bats and two switch-hitters at him, while Ritchie has allowed a .793 OPS to lefties and walked 25 of 127. The Cubs do not need to win this game early for this ticket to cash; a couple of walks followed by contact should be enough. With Atlanta likely asking him to cover meaningful innings, I’m backing the over.
- GARY'S PICKDRAKE BALDWINTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5
Baldwin has recorded a hit in 13 of his last 15 games and already has four hits, including a homer, in this series. He has also handled Imanaga before, going 2-for-6 with a home run, and the Cubs’ late-inning relief group just absorbed another rough night. Baldwin is seeing the ball well, occupies the middle of Atlanta’s order and should get four or more opportunities. I’m laying the price for one base.
- THE LONG SHOTMATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5
This is the long shot I want from Atlanta’s power board. Olson has 39 homers, owns five hits in 11 career at-bats against Imanaga, and the Cubs starter has allowed 33 homers this season. The matchup is not perfect with two left-handed hitters meeting, and the wind is coming in, so I’m keeping the conviction measured. But at this number, Olson’s season-long power and prior success against Imanaga make the swing worth taking.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day