Padres at Rockies
O/U 11 · RL Padres -1.5 · Coors Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Padres ML -166
- Published odds
- -166
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 9-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 17 moves| Market | Opened Sep 16 5:00 AM | Close Sep 16 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Padres -1.5 (-113) | Padres -1.5 (-112) | Price |
| TOTAL | 11 (-130) | 11 (-122) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Padres -175 | Padres -175 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 16 5:00 AM | Padres -1.5 (-113) | 11 (-130) | Padres -175 · Rockies +140 |
| Sep 16 6:00 AM | Padres -1.5 (-110) | 11.5 (-103) | Padres -167 · Rockies +138 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Padres -1.5 (-110) | 11 (-117) | Padres -167 · Rockies +138 |
| Sep 16 10:51 AM | Padres -1.5 (-110) | 11 (-117) | Padres -167 · Rockies +138 |
| Sep 16 11:00 AM | Padres -1.5 (-107) | 11 (-121) | Padres -159 · Rockies +133 |
| Sep 16 12:01 PM | Padres -1.5 (-112) | 11 (-129) | Padres -175 · Rockies +140 |
| Sep 16 12:01 PM | Padres -1.5 (-112) | 11 (-129) | Padres -175 · Rockies +140 |
| Sep 16 12:40 PM | Padres -1.5 (-112) | 11 (-127) | Padres -167 · Rockies +140 |
| Sep 16 1:10 PM | Padres -1.5 (-112) | 11 (-112) | Padres -167 · Rockies +140 |
| Sep 16 3:02 PM | Padres -1.5 (-120) | 11 (-125) | Padres -182 · Rockies +150 |
| Sep 16 3:31 PM | Padres -1.5 (-120) | 11 (-110) | Padres -182 · Rockies +150 |
| Sep 16 4:37 PM | Padres -1.5 (-120) | 11 (-118) | Padres -182 · Rockies +150 |
| Sep 16 4:58 PM | Padres -1.5 (-112) | 11 (-127) | Padres -167 · Rockies +140 |
| Sep 16 5:11 PM | Padres -1.5 (-110) | 11 (-112) | Padres -167 · Rockies +140 |
| Sep 16 5:18 PM | Padres -1.5 (-106) | 11 (-118) | Padres -159 · Rockies +133 |
| Sep 16 5:21 PM | Padres -1.5 (-103) | 11 (-124) | Padres -152 · Rockies +128 |
| Sep 16 5:30 PM | Padres -1.5 (-112) | 11 (-122) | Padres -175 · Rockies +140 |
| CLOSESep 16 7:30 PM | Padres -1.5 (-112) | 11 (-122) | Padres -175 · Rockies +140 |
The read
The wild card chase rolls into the thin air of Coors Field, where the Padres send Robbie Ray against Rockies rookie Mason Adams in the rubber game of a series that has already produced 27 runs in two nights. I am on the Padres, and the pick starts with the sixth inning. Adams has not gone past five innings in any of his four big-league starts, and everything behind him is a problem. Jordan Romano carries a 5.16 ERA, Juan Mejia 5.48, Jaden Hill 5.80 and Jimmy Herget 6.00, and Ryan Feltner, the one arm who could eat innings, threw five of them last night. Adams himself has allowed hard contact on 58.7 percent of balls in play with his sinker hit at a .438 clip, and that is exactly the pitch Ty France and Tatis Jr. punish, with expected wOBA marks of .424 against sinkers and .421 against four-seamers on large samples. San Diego's hitters have also posted a 40.9 percent hard-hit rate over the last three games with the better plate discipline of the two clubs.
The back end tilts the same way. Mason Miller at a 1.12 ERA with 37 saves, Bradgley Rodriguez at 2.38 and Adrian Morejon at 2.87 all had light pitch counts Tuesday and are ready. Colorado, meanwhile, is without Hunter Goodman for the second straight game after Monday's thumb injury, and Braxton Fulford, hitting .174, catches in his place. That is a fresh downgrade to the one lineup spot that could have punished Ray's slider and sinker.
The case against is real and I am not pretending otherwise. Ray has walked four and allowed five runs in each of his last two starts, his fastball and sinker carry expected wOBA marks above .400, he has surrendered 19 homers to right-handers, and Colorado stacks righties against him at a park that punishes fly balls. His 4.84 xERA against a 3.57 ERA says the market is paying for a fragile number, and if he exits early, Wandy Peralta and Randy Vásquez are on back-to-backs after getting shelled. I take the Padres anyway because Ray's wobble is a reason to fear the total, not the winner. He held Colorado to a 3.00 ERA in three starts this year, and every stage of this game after the fifth inning belongs to San Diego. At -166 this needs to hit about 62 percent of the time, and a rested elite bullpen against a rookie capped at five innings and a pen full of 5.00 ERAs clears that bar.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Robbie Ray: 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
7.43Robbie Ray has allowed 11 earned runs in 13.1 innings across his last 3 starts, producing a 7.43 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Those marks compare with his 3.57 season ERA and 1.35 season WHIP entering SD at COL.
HEAT CHECK
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.160 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.160Over the last 15 days (53 AB) he is at a 1.160 OPS, up 0.339 on his .821 season mark. He has 23 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Jackson Merrill: 1.056 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.056Over the last 15 days (51 AB) he is at a 1.056 OPS, up 0.313 on his .743 season mark. He has 25 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
COOLING OFF
Mickey Moniak: .351 OPS in Last 15 Days
.351Mickey Moniak has a .351 OPS over the last 15 days in 37 AB. That is 0.414 below his .765 season mark.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Coors Field tonight
IN 10Tonight's reading at Coors Field — Partly Cloudy, 76°, wind 10 mph, In From LF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 11.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Padres are 9-2 vs Rockies this season
9-2San Diego is 9-2 against Colorado across 11 meetings this season, though Colorado won the last one 9-3. Without pitcher, prior-venue or series-progression details, that record alone does not explain tonight’s game in Colorado.
STREAK
COL have lost 8 straight
L88 losses in a row for COL, a -32 run margin across the slide — they limp in 1-9 over their last 10.
SD have won 8 straight
W8SD have taken 8 straight and own a +16 run differential over the run. Last 10: 9-1.
REGRESSION
Ty France: .295 AVG vs .256 xBA
.256Across 451 plate appearances, Ty France carries a .295 average versus a .256 xBA. His wOBA sits at .375 against a .335 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 16, 2026 at 11:04 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKROBBIE RAYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
Ray has walked at least two in seven of his last eight starts, and Coors Field is a difficult place to trust his command. Colorado’s lineup has enough patience to extend at-bats, while Ray has issued four walks in each of his last two outings. I’m paying the price for two or more free passes.
- GARY'S PICKXANDER BOGAERTSH+R+RBI UNDER 2.5
Bogaerts has cleared this number in only five of his last 15 games, and he is hitting in the lower half of a Padres lineup where the production is concentrated above him. Mason Adams’ curveball has been his best weapon, and Bogaerts is more likely to need multiple productive events to beat this line than simply reach base. I’m taking the under.
- THE LONG SHOTFERNANDO TATIS JR.HR OVER 0.5
Tatis has homered in both games of this series and is hitting .359 with four homers in September. He gets a right-handed rookie whose sinker has been hit hard, and Coors Field gives every mistake extra carry. This is still a long shot, but the matchup and his current swing make +340 worth a small play.
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