Red Sox at Yankees
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
Yankees ML-148
CONF 62%
WCashedFinal 0-1
The read
Friday night in the Bronx, the division rivals open a four-game set with little separating the clubs overall. The difference tonight is on the mound.
Cam Schlittler brings a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 158 innings, including a 1.47 ERA across his last three starts. He has also recorded a 0.96 ERA in three starts against Boston this season. Patrick Sandoval owns a 4.54 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over 39.2 innings, with a 5.59 ERA on the road.
The handedness matchup also leans toward New York. The Yankees carry a .726 OPS against left-handed pitching, while Boston has a .715 OPS against right-handers. Sandoval has allowed a 1.126 OPS to left-handed hitters in 44 at-bats, and the confirmed Yankees lineup contains five left-handed bats.
I’m staying with the moneyline because there are legitimate reasons to avoid demanding a multi-run victory. Schlittler’s home ERA is 3.71, Boston’s current bullpen owns a 2.77 ERA, and these teams have nearly identical season run differentials. The starter advantage is strong enough to back New York to win, but the full game does not call for laying 1.5 runs.
Props on this game
2Patrick SandovalOVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed-140
LActual 3
Sandoval has allowed at least five hits in all eight starts this season, and his 1.76 WHIP supports that pattern. Opponents are batting .385 against his four-seamer and .440 against his sinker, while left-handed hitters have produced a 1.126 OPS against him. That is a particularly poor fit against a Yankees lineup featuring five left-handed bats plus Paul Goldschmidt, who owns a .993 OPS against lefties. The rested Boston bullpen could produce an early hook, but Sandoval has repeatedly reached five hits allowed before that becomes an issue.
Adley RutschmanUNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-165
WActual 0
Rutschman has exceeded this line in only four of his last 15 games and enters batting 1-for-14 over the last seven days. The matchup does not offer an obvious rebound spot. Cam Schlittler has held opponents below a .205 average from both sides of the plate, owns a 0.96 ERA in three starts against Boston this season and has surrendered more than 4.5 hits in only two of his last eight starts. This under also survives a harmless single, walk or isolated run, so I am willing to accept the heavier price.
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