Blue Jays at Yankees

Saturday afternoon in the Bronx brings a rematch of the same starters who worked through a tight game six days ago. The Yankees arrive on five straight wins, while Toronto needs an answer after going 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position Friday. This has the shape of another game decided by a couple of plate appearances, so I want Blue Jays ML -104 rather than asking them to cover 1.5 runs.

Dylan Cease gives Toronto the most important edge on this card. His 2.42 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are better than Ryan Weathers’ 3.56 and 1.19, and the contact gap is substantial: Cease has allowed a 4.8% barrel rate and 32.4% hard-hit rate, compared with 8.4% and 41.1% for Weathers. New York starts six left-handed hitters, while Cease has held lefties to a .162 average and .535 OPS. Toronto sends eight right-handed hitters against Weathers, who has allowed a .234 average, .691 OPS and 15 home runs to righties. The direct results support that matchup: New York is 6-for-39 with 19 strikeouts against Cease this season, while Toronto is 19-for-66 with four homers against Weathers.

New York owns the bullpen advantage—a 2.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against Toronto’s 3.09 and 1.18—and that five-game winning streak deserves respect. That is precisely why I am staying with the moneyline. Toronto does not need separation; it needs Cease to give it the stronger start and the offense to finish more of the opportunities it created Friday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returns to the confirmed lineup, while Ryan McMahon remains a fresh absence for New York. My read is that Toronto’s starting-pitching and lineup-construction advantages are enough to overcome New York’s edge in the late innings and end the Yankees’ streak.