Sports Picks Archive — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Braves· -156

First-place clubs meet again in Milwaukee, where the Brewers are trying to carry Friday’s pitching-led victory into the second game of the series. Atlanta brings the stronger season than its recent results suggest, but the immediate contrast is meaningful: Milwaukee is 6-4 over its last 10 while Atlanta is 4-6, and the Brewers have won two straight while the Braves have scored only 2.8 runs per game during that stretch. Milwaukee’s 5.7 runs per game is inflated by the 22-run outlier against Seattle, but this club has still won series against the Dodgers and Mariners before taking Friday’s opener. Logan Henderson is the foundation of the bet. He owns a 2.70 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, compared with Martín Pérez at 3.15 and 1.19, and the setting strengthens that separation: Henderson has a 2.42 ERA at home, while Pérez has a 4.50 ERA on the road. Atlanta starts five left-handed hitters against a pitcher holding lefties to a .180 average and .598 OPS. Pérez deserves respect after limiting Milwaukee to one run over six innings in June, but his 4.50 first-inning ERA stands opposite Henderson’s 0.75. My read is that Milwaukee has the better chance to establish control before this turns into a bullpen contest. I’m taking the moneyline because Atlanta still owns a serious late-inning counterpunch. The Braves’ current bullpen carries a 2.58 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, better than Milwaukee’s 3.46 and 1.14, although recent performance swings toward the Brewers: their relievers have a 0.69 ERA over the last seven games compared with Atlanta’s 4.22. That combination argues for Milwaukee to win without demanding a two-run margin. The Brewers are 44-23 at home, the Braves are 33-31 on the road, and Atlanta is playing game six of a seven-game trip. At -156, Milwaukee to win outright is the ticket that matches the read.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· -104

Saturday afternoon in the Bronx brings a rematch of the same starters who worked through a tight game six days ago. The Yankees arrive on five straight wins, while Toronto needs an answer after going 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position Friday. This has the shape of another game decided by a couple of plate appearances, so I want Blue Jays ML -104 rather than asking them to cover 1.5 runs. Dylan Cease gives Toronto the most important edge on this card. His 2.42 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are better than Ryan Weathers’ 3.56 and 1.19, and the contact gap is substantial: Cease has allowed a 4.8% barrel rate and 32.4% hard-hit rate, compared with 8.4% and 41.1% for Weathers. New York starts six left-handed hitters, while Cease has held lefties to a .162 average and .535 OPS. Toronto sends eight right-handed hitters against Weathers, who has allowed a .234 average, .691 OPS and 15 home runs to righties. The direct results support that matchup: New York is 6-for-39 with 19 strikeouts against Cease this season, while Toronto is 19-for-66 with four homers against Weathers. New York owns the bullpen advantage—a 2.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against Toronto’s 3.09 and 1.18—and that five-game winning streak deserves respect. That is precisely why I am staying with the moneyline. Toronto does not need separation; it needs Cease to give it the stronger start and the offense to finish more of the opportunities it created Friday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returns to the confirmed lineup, while Ryan McMahon remains a fresh absence for New York. My read is that Toronto’s starting-pitching and lineup-construction advantages are enough to overcome New York’s edge in the late innings and end the Yankees’ streak.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Nationals· +116

Saturday afternoon under the closed roof at loanDepot park, Eury Pérez takes the ball with Miami trying to build on Friday’s walk-off, while Jake Irvin attempts to steady Washington in Game 2. The Marlins’ -180 moneyline is outside the permitted range, so I’m taking Miami -1.5 at +116. The price forces a decision about margin, and my read is that today’s starting-pitching separation can become scoreboard separation. Pérez brings a 3.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against Irvin’s 5.80 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Across their last three starts, Pérez has allowed four earned runs in 18 innings; Irvin has allowed 11 in 14⅔. Pérez has also posted a 2.90 ERA at home, compared with Irvin’s 4.60 ERA on the road. The pitch results reinforce that gap: Pérez’s four-seamer carries a .260 xwOBA, with his slider at .239 and sweeper at .220. Irvin’s four-seamer is at .445 and his sinker at .481. Miami does not need to manufacture a huge inning immediately; repeated exposure to those damage-prone pitches should provide scoring opportunities. Yesterday’s 3-2 result is the warning attached to laying a run and a half, but today’s pitching arrangement changes the shape of the game. Miami has scored 4.0 runs per game over its last five, while Washington has scored 2.2. Washington’s relief options also carry meaningful recent work: Clayton Beeter threw 15 pitches Thursday and 28 Friday, Orlando Ribalta worked both days, and Will Dion threw 48 pitches Friday. Miami used five relievers Friday, but Cade Gibson threw 12 pitches and Calvin Faucher threw only two. My bet is that Miami establishes the lead behind Pérez and receives another opportunity to create distance once Irvin departs. At plus money, I trust the strongest measured edge in this matchup enough to demand the extra run.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· -144

Citizens Bank Park gets Game 2 after Friday’s extra-inning thriller, with Philadelphia carrying seven straight wins and St. Louis trying to answer a painful walk-off loss. I’m taking Cardinals +1.5 because my read says this remains a competitive matchup, even if Philadelphia retains the cleaner late-game path. Andrew Painter has a 6.43 ERA this season and a 6.59 ERA at home, with an .853 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters and an .840 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Quinn Mathews owns a 3.00 ERA through nine major-league innings, including seven strikeouts and one earned run in his latest start. His sample is far too small to call him established, but he has allowed only a 24% hard-hit rate across his first 25 balls in play. St. Louis also has enough current production to pressure Painter: the Cardinals have averaged 5.6 runs over their last 10 games compared with Philadelphia’s 5.3, while Jordan Walker is hitting .412 with four homers over his last seven. Philadelphia counters with Alec Bohm hitting .500 over that span, which is another reason I want the extra run instead of demanding an outright Cardinals victory. The strongest Philadelphia advantage arrives after the starters leave. Its bullpen carries a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, compared with a 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for St. Louis. Phillies relievers have allowed four earned runs over their last seven games while the Cardinals have allowed 14. That disparity is enough to keep me away from the St. Louis moneyline, but it also defines why +1.5 is the right ticket: Philadelphia’s best route is surviving the early innings and controlling a close game late. The Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games, the Cardinals are 22-20, and Friday was decided by one run. I’ll pay -144 to keep both a St. Louis win and another narrow Philadelphia escape on my side.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Orioles· -126

Saturday night at Camden Yards, the division-leading Rays walk into a park where Baltimore has owned this matchup, while the Orioles try to build on Friday’s series-opening win. Baltimore’s 9-4 season-series lead and 5-0 home mark against Tampa Bay deserve respect; I am not waving those results away. My ticket is still Tampa Bay at -126 because tonight’s pitching and lineup configuration gives the Rays the stronger path, and the moneyline lets me back that edge without requiring extra separation. Shane McClanahan brings a 3.25 ERA and 1.12 WHIP against Brandon Young’s 3.52 and 1.35. Neither starter handled this opponent cleanly five days ago: McClanahan allowed three earned runs over 3⅓ innings, while Young surrendered eight hits, four earned runs and three homers in four innings. The larger matchup still favors Tampa Bay. The Rays own a .267 average and .759 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared with Baltimore’s .236 average and .713 OPS against lefties. Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Liam Hicks all carry an OPS of at least .843 against right-handers. Young already saw much of this lineup once, and Tampa Bay’s hitters went 8-for-19 against him. Baltimore’s case is real. Pete Alonso is 24-for-54 with seven homers over his last 15 games, and the Orioles’ recent contact quality has been better than Tampa Bay’s. But if the starters leave this game unresolved, I want the Rays’ bullpen behind my ticket. Tampa Bay’s current relief unit owns a 2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while Baltimore’s is at 4.14 and 1.23. Baltimore has been better over the last seven games—2.82 against Tampa Bay’s 5.72—but Bryan Baker did not pitch Friday, while Andrew Kittredge and Rico Garcia both did. The season-long pitching depth, the stronger offensive split against tonight’s starter and Young’s poor first encounter with these bats are enough for me. The run line asks for an outcome my edge does not require; Rays moneyline is the bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· -150

The roof is closed in Arlington as the Rangers try to build on Friday’s extra-inning win and the Angels look to answer after letting that game escape. I’m taking Los Angeles plus a run and a half because this matchup reads tighter than the price on Texas suggests, and the protection fits that read better than asking the Angels to win outright. Ryan Johnson’s 8.20 road ERA is the obvious danger, but his current work cannot be ignored: four earned runs across 14.1 innings in his last three starts. That includes 4.1 innings of one-run ball against these Rangers eleven days ago. Cody Bradford allowed three runs across seven innings in the corresponding matchup, but his entire 2026 résumé consists of 15.1 innings, and Oakland collected eight hits against him over four innings in his latest start. Bradford may pitch well again, but the available evidence does not establish the kind of starting-pitching separation needed to make Los Angeles an easy fade. Texas has scored 2.3 runs per game over its last ten. The Angels’ 4.6 figure is inflated by their 18-run game in Houston, but even removing that outlier leaves them at 3.1—still better than Texas over the same span. Los Angeles also owns the stronger bullpen numbers: a 3.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP from its current group, compared with 3.87 and 1.34 for Texas. The Rangers have the cleaner defense, and the fresh losses of Wade Meckler and Nolan Schanuel make this far from a comfortable ticket. Still, the Angels lead the season series 8-5, both starters were competitive in the previous meeting, and Friday required ten innings plus an Angels error to separate these clubs. I’m buying the extra run rather than demanding an outright upset; a competitive Angels performance is enough to cash this card.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -110

Saturday night under the closed roof at Daikin Park, Houston looks to turn Friday’s shutout into control of this series while the Athletics try to stop a five-game slide. My ticket is Astros -1.5 at -110, and it is based on Houston creating separation over nine innings—not simply chasing yesterday’s 4-0 result. Jacob Lopez is the danger to this bet. He has a 3.00 ERA with 20 strikeouts and four walks across his last three starts, while Hunter Brown has a 4.50 ERA with 17 strikeouts and 10 walks in that same span. That keeps this from being a simple starting-pitcher mismatch. The lineup alignment still favors Houston: six right-handed Astros face a pitcher who has allowed right-handed hitters a .280 average, .849 OPS and 13 home runs. Brown has limited right-handed hitters to a .577 OPS, though Oakland’s four left-handed bats receive the better side of his .727 OPS split. Brown’s 3.67 season ERA against Lopez’s 5.22 gives Houston the stronger overall foundation, even with their contrasting recent stretches. The bet turns on what happens after the starters. Houston’s current bullpen owns a 3.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; Oakland’s sits at 4.48 and 1.51. Both relief groups have struggled over the last seven games, but Houston covered four scoreless innings Friday without using Josh Hader, whose ERA is 0.87. Oakland’s bullpen has allowed nine earned runs over its last 9.1 innings, and Drew Rom has thrown 57 pitches across two recent appearances. My read is that Lopez can keep Oakland competitive early, but Houston has the lineup alignment and materially better relief structure to create the late separation this run-line ticket requires.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· +102

Saturday night at Rate Field, Chicago tries to carry Friday’s walk-off energy while New York sends Christian Scott to stop it. The wind is out to center, and this has the feel of a game where one mistake can swing the night. I’m taking Mets ML +102 because the cleanest measurable edge belongs to Scott, and this ticket asks New York only to win outright. Scott enters with a 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 105 strikeouts in 84.2 innings; Luis Castillo has a 4.99 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 115.1 innings. The contact profiles reinforce that difference: Scott has allowed a 6.8% barrel rate and 34.7% hard-hit rate, compared with Castillo’s 9.9% and 41.8%. Scott’s 5.87 ERA over his last three starts, versus Castillo’s 4.60, is a legitimate warning. But Castillo has allowed left-handed hitters a .843 OPS and 14 home runs, and the confirmed Mets lineup includes four left-handed hitters plus switch-hitting Francisco Lindor. Scott has held lefties to a .688 OPS, so Chicago’s left-handed lineup does not create an equivalent vulnerability. Chicago owns the stronger team résumé: 4.8 runs per game against New York’s 4.1, a 38-25 home record against the Mets’ 28-36 road mark, and a bullpen with a 1.35 ERA over its last seven games compared with New York’s 1.85. The Mets’ current bullpen has the better season line, however, at a 3.12 ERA and 1.03 WHIP versus Chicago’s 3.24 and 1.22. That balance keeps my confidence measured. Still, Randal Grichuk and Jake Rogers are sitting after both homered Friday, and Kodai Senga has not worked since August 19. My judgment is that Chicago’s broader résumé is carrying more weight than tonight’s specific pitching matchup deserves. I want the plus-money side with the better starter and the clearer handedness edge. Mets ML +102 is the ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Giants· -102

Overcast skies hang above Fenway as the Giants and Red Sox return after Boston’s 6-4 series-opening win. There is volatility on both mounds, but the full nine-inning picture points me toward Boston’s run line at -102. The Red Sox have scored 5.7 runs per game over their last 10; the Giants have scored 3.2. Boston’s last-20 form is 12-8 with 6.3 runs scored per game, while San Francisco is 6-14 with 3.0. Those records guarantee nothing tonight, but they reveal a sustained difference in how consistently these offenses have created runs. Blade Tidwell has made only three starts, so I will not pretend his splits are settled law. Still, Boston can present five hitters from the left side against a pitcher who has allowed a .308 average and .872 OPS to left-handed batters, compared with .152 and .358 against righties. Wilyer Abreu enters with a 1.196 OPS over his last seven games, while Willson Contreras is at 1.355. Patrick Sandoval is the risk on this card—he has allowed 11 earned runs and 10 walks over his last 15 innings—but Tidwell has surrendered nine earned runs and seven walks across the same span. I am not betting on starting-pitcher dominance from either side. I am betting Boston’s advantages after the starters leave. The Red Sox bullpen carries a 3.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP; the Giants’ current group is at 4.06 and 1.50. Their recent results are closer, with respective bullpen ERAs of 2.45 and 2.70 over the last seven games, but Boston still owns the stronger season-long foundation. The defensive separation matters too: the Red Sox have committed 62 errors this season and three over the last seven games, while the Giants have committed 84 and eight. My read is that Boston has more ways to create and preserve separation—better current offense, cleaner defense and the more trustworthy late-inning staff. With the moneyline unavailable at its price, Red Sox -1.5 is the ticket I want.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Tigers· -104

Saturday night settles over Kauffman Stadium with Kansas City chasing a seventh straight victory and Detroit trying to stop a three-game slide. I’m backing the Royals ML at -104. Kansas City’s streak was built partly against weaker competition, so I’m not betting the streak by itself. I’m betting the way the Royals are currently playing: 4.9 runs scored and 3.5 allowed per game over their last 10, compared with Detroit’s 4.0 scored and 4.8 allowed. Michael Wacha is the hinge of the card. His 3.58 ERA and 1.15 WHIP both better Drew Anderson’s 4.01 and 1.30, and Wacha has a 1.29 ERA with Kansas City winning both of his starts against Detroit this season. Anderson deserves respect after posting a 2.84 ERA across his last three starts, but he has completed five innings only once in his five 2026 starts. That matters because Kansas City’s lineup has recently produced a .411 expected weighted on-base average with a 15.3% whiff rate, while Detroit sits at .355 with a 21.8% whiff rate. The Royals are putting together the better at-bats entering this matchup. There are real reasons this stays near a coin flip. Detroit owns the better season bullpen ERA, 3.32 to 4.55, and Maikel Garcia’s fresh absence removes a productive bat from Kansas City’s lineup. Still, the Royals have committed no errors over their last seven games while Detroit has made five, and Wacha offers the better chance to shorten Kansas City’s exposure to its bullpen. I’m not paying -176 for the Royals’ run-line cushion when the outright win is available at -104. My read is that Kansas City’s current contact, Wacha’s steadier starting profile and its cleaner execution are enough to keep this run going.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Pirates· -114

The late-afternoon sun is still high over Dodger Stadium, where Pittsburgh gets another crack at Los Angeles one night after a 10-inning walk-off. This time the matchup turns on Tarik Skubal against Jared Jones, and I’m laying the run and a half with the Dodgers at -114. Skubal brings a 2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 135 strikeouts against 20 walks; Jones stands at 4.78, 1.20 and 72 against 21. Jones owns a 3.84 ERA outside his eight-run Mets start and just held Boston to one earned run over five innings, so this is not a bet built on dismissing him. Skubal is simply the more trustworthy starting point. Tonight’s lineup construction sharpens that advantage. Pittsburgh starts six right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters against Skubal, who has held right-handed batters to a .190 average and .565 OPS. The Pirates have hit .244 with a .692 OPS against left-handed pitching. Los Angeles starts six left-handed hitters against Jones, who has allowed a .234 average and .761 OPS to that side, while the Dodgers have produced a .262 average and .772 OPS against right-handers. Oneil Cruz, the only left-handed starter for Pittsburgh, is a genuine counterweight after hitting two home runs in nine recent at-bats. Andy Pages’ fresh absence also makes Los Angeles thinner, with Alek Thomas carrying a .181 average and .563 OPS. The late innings complete the case. The Dodgers’ current bullpen owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, compared with Pittsburgh’s 3.40 and 1.15. The Pirates’ relief corps has not surrendered an earned run over its last three games, but six relievers worked Friday, Mason Montgomery has thrown 54 pitches across three appearances, and Gregory Soto and Luke Weaver worked two of the last three game days. Tanner Scott did not pitch Friday. Los Angeles also has the cleaner season-long defensive record, with 52 errors against Pittsburgh’s 82. I’m not paying the Dodgers’ -250 moneyline; with advantages in the starting matchup, lineup geometry, bullpen availability and defense, -1.5 at -114 is the ticket.

Tonight’s lineup construction sharpens that advantage. Pittsburgh starts six right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters against Skubal, who has held right-handed batters to a .190 average and .565 OPS. The Pirates have hit .244 with a .692 OPS against left-handed pitching. Los Angeles starts six left-handed hitters against Jones, who has allowed a .234 average and .761 OPS to that side, while the Dodgers have produced a .262 average and .772 OPS against right-handers. Oneil Cruz, the only left-handed starter for Pittsburgh, is a genuine counterweight after hitting two home runs in nine recent at-bats. Andy Pages’ fresh absence also makes Los Angeles thinner, with Alek Thomas carrying a .181 average and .563 OPS.

The late innings complete the case. The Dodgers’ current bullpen owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, compared with Pittsburgh’s 3.40 and 1.15. The Pirates’ relief corps has not surrendered an earned run over its last three games, but six relievers worked Friday, Mason Montgomery has thrown 54 pitches across three appearances, and Gregory Soto and Luke Weaver worked two of the last three game days. Tanner Scott did not pitch Friday. Los Angeles also has the cleaner season-long defensive record, with 52 errors against Pittsburgh’s 82. I’m not paying the Dodgers’ -250 moneyline; with advantages in the starting matchup, lineup geometry, bullpen availability and defense, -1.5 at -114 is the ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· +106

Saturday night at T-Mobile Park, a top pitching prospect takes a major-league mound for the first time while Chicago tries to answer a bruising 10-inning loss. Seattle owns Friday’s walk-off momentum, but I’m not paying a favorite’s price for yesterday’s emotion. My ticket is Chicago at plus money because the Cubs have more dependable paths across all nine innings. Kade Anderson earned this opportunity with a 1.06 ERA and 135 strikeouts over 93.1 Double-A innings. That performance deserves respect, but his MLB debut comes against an offense batting .268 with an .805 OPS against left-handed pitching. Seattle, facing another lefty in David Peterson, is batting .216 with a .640 OPS against left-handers. The broader offensive comparison points the same way: Chicago averages 5.1 runs with a .757 OPS, while Seattle averages 3.9 with a .684 OPS. Those numbers do not decide one game, but they tell me which lineup I trust when the uncertainty belongs to a debuting starter. Chicago also sends six right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter into Anderson’s first assignment. Peterson is not a spotless statistical play. His season line includes a 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, but his last three starts produced a 2.76 ERA over 16.1 innings. I only need that steadier recent version before this reaches the bullpens, where Chicago owns the clearer advantage. The Cubs’ current relief arms carry a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season, with a 2.96 ERA over the last seven games; Seattle’s corresponding marks are 3.86, 1.29 and 8.54. Both clubs used four relievers Friday, so I won’t oversell rest. I trust Chicago’s recent relief performance more. T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly setting should keep execution at a premium, and the Cubs have the stronger offense and more reliable finishing group. At +106, I’m backing Chicago to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rockies· -132

Saturday night at Coors Field brings a volatile pitching matchup, threatening weather and two clubs moving in opposite directions. Cleveland has won two straight, Colorado has dropped four straight, and I’m backing the Guardians to win outright at -132. The starting-pitcher comparison gives Cleveland the first edge. Tanner Bibee owns a 4.01 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, compared with Gabriel Hughes at 6.69 and 1.38. Neither starter enters in ideal form, but the gap remains substantial: Bibee has a 5.50 ERA across his last three starts, while Hughes has a 12.82 ERA over the same span. Cleveland also sends five left-handed hitters and three switch-hitters against Hughes, who has allowed left-handed batters a .286 average and .772 OPS. Colorado presents the same left-heavy challenge to Bibee, but he has held left-handed batters to a .225 average and .731 OPS. My read is that Bibee gives Cleveland the better chance to reach the middle innings without chasing the game. The larger advantage arrives behind the starters. Cleveland’s bullpen carries a 3.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, while Colorado’s current group owns a 5.04 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Over the last seven games, the comparison is 1.52 against 3.49, and Cade Smith was not required during Friday’s 9-1 victory. Cleveland has also committed zero errors over its last seven games; Colorado has committed eight. I considered Cleveland -1.5, but Colorado’s .757 OPS against right-handed pitching, Bibee’s recent form and the volatility of Coors give the Rockies a credible route to keeping this tight. I want the ticket that cashes if Cleveland’s deeper pitching staff simply gets the game home. Guardians moneyline is the bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· +112

Saturday night at Chase Field, the roof is shut and Arizona returns after delivering a 9-0 opening statement. Michael Soroka gets the ball against Rhett Lowder as the Diamondbacks try to seize control of the series. The moneyline is off my board at -184, but this is more than a narrow win read. I’m laying the run and taking the plus money with Arizona -1.5 at +112. The starting-pitcher gap drives the ticket. Soroka owns a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Lowder enters at 5.17 and 1.49. At Chase Field, Soroka’s ERA is 1.88; Lowder’s road ERA is 7.23. Cincinnati starts six right-handed hitters against a pitcher who has held that side to a .180 average and .505 OPS. Arizona, meanwhile, can present four hitters from the left side against Lowder, who has allowed a .265 average and .823 OPS to left-handed batters. The lineup form reinforces the matchup: Arizona has scored 5.1 runs per game over its last 10, compared with Cincinnati’s 3.6. The counterargument is legitimate: Cincinnati’s .390 expected wOBA over its last three games exceeds Arizona’s .340, and Soroka has made only two starts since a 52-day gap. This is not a blind bet on Friday happening again. But if Soroka leaves before the late innings, Arizona’s current bullpen carries a 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, against Cincinnati’s 3.85 and 1.28. No Diamondbacks reliever worked both of the last two game days, while Julian Garcia did, and Brock Burke has thrown 47 pitches across two appearances. Arizona also has committed 48 errors this season to Cincinnati’s 71. Starting pitching, relief depth and defense all point the same way, and that full-game advantage is enough for me to lay the 1.5.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· -138

Saturday night settles over Petco Park with Minnesota trying to answer Friday’s 6-2 loss and San Diego looking to keep its August push moving. I’m taking the Padres moneyline at -138. This is not a chase of the series opener; it is a bet on San Diego’s stronger full-game structure. I want the Padres to win without requiring a two-run margin in a pitcher-friendly park. Casey Mize supplies the stronger season baseline with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, compared with Dean Kremer’s 5.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Kremer’s 3.12 ERA over his last three starts deserves respect, especially because Mize is at 5.87 in the same window. But Mize followed his eight-run Arizona outing by allowing two earned runs across six innings against Milwaukee and none across six against Cleveland. Kremer now brings a 7.20 road ERA over 25 innings into Petco, with Minnesota going 1-4 in those starts. Minnesota scored five earned runs against Mize in April and owns the better season OPS against right-handers, so this is not a mismatch. My read is simply that Mize is the starter more likely to give his club a stable opening tonight. The advantage becomes more pronounced after the starters. San Diego’s current bullpen owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP; Minnesota’s is at 3.72 and 1.33. The Twins’ relievers have been better over the last seven games, posting a 3.04 ERA against San Diego’s 3.38, but the larger body of work still gives the Padres the late-inning edge. San Diego is 7-3 over its last ten while allowing 2.8 runs per game; Minnesota is 5-5 while allowing 5.1. I expect San Diego to create enough against Kremer and protect it late. Because that protection may come in a tight game, the moneyline is the right ticket—not Padres -1.5.

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GARY'S PICK

NFLvs Commanders· +100

Ford Field hosts a preseason matchup priced nearly dead even, with Washington arriving after a 20-7 win and Detroit trying to answer a 16-14 loss. I’m laying the short number with the Lions because this wager is more about which roster gives me the cleaner quarterback path through four quarters than what either scoreboard showed last week. Jared Goff supplies Detroit with the more established starting baseline: 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, eight interceptions and 68.0% completions across 17 games last season. Jayden Daniels played seven games, producing 1,262 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions and a 60.6% completion rate. Those numbers cannot tell us how long either starter plays, so I will not treat them like regular-season projections. The deciding piece comes behind them. Joshua Dobbs is active for Detroit, while Marcus Mariota is unavailable after injuring his knee in Washington’s opener. That is fresh information with real relevance in a preseason game expected to move beyond the starters. Washington’s opening victory is the obvious attraction, but it came against a different opponent under its own rotation conditions. Treating that result as directly comparable to Detroit’s two-point loss would be the kind of shallow preseason handicapping that creates bad tickets. Detroit also owns the small situational advantages of playing at home and having nine days of rest against Washington’s eight, though neither carries the bet alone. My read is that the verified quarterback continuity from Goff to Dobbs outweighs Washington’s more appealing opening result. At a price still below a field goal, I will trust Detroit’s clearer listed quarterback ladder and lay the 1.5 points.

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GARY'S PICK

NFL@ Browns· -105

Saturday afternoon in Cleveland brings together two teams still sorting through the moving parts of preseason football. The Browns are laying 2.5 at home, but this game is likely to be shaped as much by the reserves as by Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen. Both starting quarterbacks are available, and both teams have an active second option in Shedeur Sanders and Kyle Allen. The trouble for anyone laying points is that neither coaching staff has disclosed how the quarterback snaps will be divided. Cleveland’s home field and intact starting offensive line deserve respect, but those advantages become harder to price once the substitutions begin. Buffalo also brings its primary listed group of skill players into the game, giving its quarterback rotation a complete set of established options. I do not see a verified efficiency or rest advantage strong enough to make Cleveland’s favorite status compelling; both clubs had seven days between games. Buffalo’s opening win and Cleveland’s opening loss create a simple preseason narrative, but I am not betting those results forward. One game does not reveal how the rotations, field position, or late-game personnel will behave here. My read is that the uncertainty favors the team receiving the points: the Bills have enough available quarterback and skill-position depth to remain competitive through multiple lineup changes, while Cleveland has not demonstrated a measurable advantage that warrants laying 2.5. This is not a declaration that Buffalo is the better regular-season team. It is a price decision in a volatile preseason setting, and I want the cushion with the underdog. Give me Buffalo +2.5.

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GARY'S PICK

NFL@ Vikings· -110

U.S. Bank Stadium gets the Saturday-afternoon stage as Baltimore and Minnesota meet with one preseason win apiece. The Vikings are favored by 3.5 at home, but this is a full-game preseason bet. Without announced snap allocations or rotation plans, I am reluctant to pay more than a field goal for the home side. The cleanest verified quarterback comparison favors Baltimore. Lamar Jackson’s larger 13-game baseline produced 21 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 62.7 rating, while Kyler Murray recorded six touchdowns, three interceptions and a 47.1 rating across five games. Those are not equal samples, and neither starter is guaranteed to determine the entire game, but the measured baseline still points toward the underdog. Both teams also enter on seven days’ rest. Minnesota has Murray, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson available, while Baltimore has Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. There is no rest disadvantage or clear separation among the listed primary offensive personnel that persuades me to lay this number. Minnesota’s 5-0 run across its last five games is the cleanest visible storyline, compared with Baltimore’s 3-2 mark, but those records describe the road here rather than what happens Saturday. My read is that the price asks bettors to turn Minnesota’s recent results and home field into coverage despite substantial full-game playing-time uncertainty. I will take Baltimore +3.5. I do not need the Ravens to prove they are the better team or even win outright; I need them to remain competitive, and the stronger measured quarterback baseline, equal rest and valuable hook beyond a field goal make Baltimore the side of the price I trust.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFL@ Colts· -102

Lucas Oil Stadium gets the Saturday afternoon preseason spotlight, with Indianapolis favored at home against Atlanta. I’m taking the Falcons +3.5 at -120 because this price asks the Colts to turn a limited collection of measurable advantages into a cover beyond a field goal. The strongest verified argument for Indianapolis is Daniel Jones’ 2025-26 baseline. Jones completed 68.0% of his passes with 3,101 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 63.0 rating across 13 games. Tua Tagovailoa completed 67.7% with 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and a 37.5 rating across 14 games. Jones owns the cleaner statistical profile, and that matters when comparing the starting quarterbacks. But this is a preseason spread covering the entire game, not a wager settled exclusively by the starters. My handicap gives the added rotation variance more weight than it would during the regular season, which reduces how aggressively I am willing to price that quarterback difference. Indianapolis also has nine days of rest against Atlanta’s eight, while both teams list intact starting offensive lines. Those facts give the Colts a reasonable case as the favorite, but I do not see enough verified separation to lay 3.5 points at -120. The hook is important in a preseason setting where personnel usage can change the quality of the game from one quarter to the next. Atlanta does not need to prove it is the better team or win outright; it only needs to remain within the number. My read is that the market is charging a little too much for Indianapolis’ advantage at quarterback and at home. I’ll accept the uncertainty, take the points, and put my money on Atlanta +3.5.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFLvs Giants· -110

Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium, two teams searching for their first preseason win meet with New York installed as the road favorite. I’m taking Miami plus the points because the Giants are being asked to create separation in a game defined by uncertain rotations, and the verified evidence does not give me enough reason to lay more than a field goal. Malik Willis enters with the cleaner measured quarterback profile: 422 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 93.1 rating across four games. Jaxson Dart brings a much larger 14-game sample, but his 15 touchdowns, five interceptions and 57.5 rating do not make Giants -3.5 attractive. Willis’s sample is too small to treat as certainty, yet Miami also has all five listed starting offensive linemen available. New York is missing center John Michael Schmitz Jr., while Malik Nabers, Jalin Hyatt and JuJu Smith-Schuster are unavailable from its receiving group. Miami has real defensive availability concerns of its own, particularly in the secondary, so this is not a case for pretending the Dolphins hold every matchup advantage. The rotation question keeps my confidence measured. Jameis Winston is available behind Dart, while Miami lists Quinn Ewers out, giving New York the clearer confirmed option when the starters leave. But the ticket is not asking whether the Giants can win; it is asking them to win by at least four. My read is that Miami’s home setting, extra day of rest, offensive-line continuity and Willis’s clean measured production provide enough resistance to keep this inside the number. At +3.5, Miami does not have to be the better team for the entire afternoon. In a preseason game where playing time can change the balance quickly, that extra half-point is the part of the price I want to own.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFLvs Saints· -105

Saturday afternoon at SoFi Stadium, the Saints and Rams meet in a preseason game where the rotations could matter as much as the opening lineup. New Orleans is laying 1.5 points on the road, and I’m taking the points with Los Angeles. The strongest verified quarterback baseline belongs to the underdog. Matthew Stafford finished the prior season with 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdowns against eight interceptions, a 65.0% completion rate and a 71.2 rating over 17 games. Tyler Shough’s corresponding line was 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns against six interceptions, a 67.6% completion rate and a 48.8 rating over 11 games. Those numbers do not guarantee anything in August, particularly once Stetson Bennett IV and Spencer Rattler enter the picture. They do, however, make it difficult for me to justify laying points against Los Angeles. My judgment is that the uncertainty surrounding the reserve portions of the game increases the value of taking points rather than giving them. Both teams enter with seven days’ rest, so there is no scheduling imbalance strong enough to move me away from that quarterback comparison. I’m also not turning the Rams’ 4-1 listed recent run or the Saints’ 3-2 mark into a predictive argument; those results came against different opponents under different conditions. This ticket comes down to price. The Rams are at home, have the stronger established quarterback profile, and are still being offered 1.5 points. I do not see enough verified separation to pay the road-favorite premium on New Orleans. The cushion is modest, but in a preseason game shaped by changing personnel, it is worth taking. Rams plus 1.5 at -106 is the bet.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFLvs Bears· -110

Saturday night at Paycor Stadium brings a preseason game that should be decided long after the familiar names leave the stage. With Cincinnati planning to sit most starters and Chicago expected to keep its starters sidelined, this is a four-quarter wager on roster depth, availability, and which team holds up when the rotations reach the bottom of the chart. Chicago owns the strongest visible argument. The Bears produced 430 yards, 22 first downs, and 6.8 yards per play in their opener, while Cincinnati managed 256 yards, 15 first downs, and 3.7 per play. Both defenses generated three takeaways, so Chicago’s superior offensive output cannot simply be dismissed as turnover luck. That is the main threat to this ticket. But those were full-game numbers against different opponents and with different personnel rotations; they are not verified reserve-phase splits. My read is that Chicago’s 34-10 result is the obvious preseason performance the market is asking bettors to buy, and I am unwilling to project that efficiency cleanly into a game with a different usage plan. The Bengals’ path is less glamorous but more dependable for this particular setup. Cincinnati has no listed offensive-line absence, compared with two for Chicago, while the Bengals have one listed defensive-line absence against three for the Bears. Those current availability gaps matter when reserve units are expected to handle most of the night. Cincinnati is also at home with nine days between games, compared with seven for Chicago. None of those factors guarantees anything in a volatile preseason game, but together they give Cincinnati the stronger four-quarter survival profile. At +1.5 and -106, I am taking the points with the home side and betting that Chicago’s impressive opener has been given slightly too much influence in a matchup now governed by depth.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFLvs Eagles· -110

Saturday night at Gillette Stadium, two teams that spent the week trading joint-practice reps now put the scoreboard on and turn the game over to their full rosters. My money is on New England +1.5 because the Patriots bring the cleaner availability profile and the strongest verified opponent-specific preparation into this near-even matchup. The starter-phase evidence points toward New England without needing to treat practice like a game. Drake Maye went 15-for-18 during 11-on-11 work against Philadelphia, while A.J. Brown recorded four catches. That controlled sample is not a four-quarter forecast, but it is current evidence against this opponent. The full-season quarterback comparison also leans New England: Maye completed 72.0% with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions over 17 games, compared with Jalen Hurts at 64.8%, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions over 16. Both teams have their listed starting offensive lines intact, so I am not manufacturing a trench advantage. The clearer distinction is availability: Philadelphia has 15 listed active absences against New England’s four, with the Eagles’ losses spread across receivers, defensive backs and linebackers. A preseason ticket must survive the changeover from starters to reserves, and I cannot claim a verified backup-quarterback advantage between Tommy DeVito and Andy Dalton. What I can price is New England entering with fewer missing pieces throughout its rotation, coupled with Mike Vrabel framing this week as a “true litmus test.” Philadelphia’s strongest counter is legitimate: Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Hollywood Brown and Dallas Goedert are available behind an intact offensive line, while New England is missing two cornerbacks. Still, I do not think this short price fully accounts for the four-quarter availability gap. I’ll take the healthier roster, the current matchup-specific work and the 1.5 points at -112, with a measured stake because preseason playing time remains uncertain.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFL@ Buccaneers· -114

The lights come on at Raymond James Stadium for the dress-rehearsal game, but this wager will be decided long after the starters leave the stage. I’m taking Kansas City +5.5 at -106 because the Chiefs have the more credible four-quarter path at this number. Tampa Bay’s strongest argument is legitimate. Baker Mayfield is active, Todd Bowles plans to play the starters for 8–15 snaps, and the Buccaneers won their opener 24–16 while resting every offensive and defensive starter. That gives Tampa Bay evidence of capable reserve play before adding its first unit. The problem is the leap required from there: Mayfield’s brief appearance must create an advantage that survives several quarters of substitutions. Tampa Bay’s opening-game quarterback completed 12 of 20 passes for 72 yards, so that victory did not establish dominant quarterback production from the group expected to handle most of tonight. Patrick Mahomes is unavailable, but Kansas City has already operated under that condition. Justin Fields completed all four of his attempts for 41 yards, while the relief quarterback completed 13 of 19 for 98 yards. Those are tiny samples against a different opponent, and I am not treating them as forecasts. They do verify that Kansas City received functional quarterback play across its opening rotation. The danger is Tampa Bay’s active first unit putting the Chiefs behind early, especially at home. Still, only 8–15 planned starter snaps limit how far I am willing to extend that advantage. Once this becomes the reserve evaluation game both coaching staffs expect, I do not see enough verified separation to lay 5.5 points. Kansas City can cover by containing the opening phase and reproducing the competent quarterback operation it has already shown. That is the ticket I trust.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

NFLvs Cowboys· -105

Saturday night at State Farm Stadium, the starters will set the table before the reserves take ownership of the game. In this preseason matchup, I’m laying the short number with Arizona because its available rotation and planned playing-time structure give the Cardinals the better four-quarter path. Mike LaFleur intends to use a handful of established players after holding his starters out against Las Vegas, while Dallas continues a preseason-wide policy of minimal starter involvement. Gardner Minshew II gives Arizona continuity at quarterback, and its backup-led group already produced a 27-14 win. Dallas deserves equal credit for a reserve-driven 17-7 victory over Seattle, but Dak Prescott’s listed start matters only for the snaps he actually receives; his regular-season baseline cannot be extended across this game. Arizona also enters at home with nine days of rest compared with seven for Dallas. My read is that the market has compressed those small Arizona advantages too far. The danger is Arizona’s thinner injury-driven rotation, particularly with Jeremiyah Love and Josh Sweat unavailable. Dallas has a legitimate late-game path behind Joe Milton III and a depth group that performed well in its opener. That keeps this from being a high-confidence play. Still, Arizona’s case does not rest entirely on one early series: its reserves have already operated successfully, LaFleur plans to mix in more established personnel, and the Cardinals hold the rest and venue advantages. At -1.5 and -102, that is enough for me to put the ticket on Arizona.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

DYLAN CEASEK'S OVER 8.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -111

Cease struck out 10 Yankees in 6.1 innings six days ago, including nine of the 15 left-handed batters he faced. New York is sending six lefties at him again, and his slider-changeup combination has produced elite swing-and-miss numbers. With 201 strikeouts in 137.2 innings, nine is a fair target at nearly even money.

GARY'S PICK

SPENCER JONESHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -115

Jones is seeing the ball well, but this is a brutal individual matchup. He is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts against Cease, carries a 43% recent whiff rate and will face a pitcher holding left-handed hitters to a .162 average. One mistake can beat this bet, but Cease has several ways to put Jones away.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BAUERSWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +152

Bauers has drawn a walk in 11 of his last 15 games, and this matchup gives that patience room to pay off. Martín Pérez has issued 45 walks in 111.1 innings and has exceeded 1.5 walks in six of his last eight starts. Batting cleanup guarantees Bauers meaningful plate appearances, and the plus-money price is worth taking on a hitter consistently refusing to expand the zone.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW VAUGHNSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -101

Vaughn has recorded a single in 10 of his last 15 games and is batting .369 with a 1.072 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He is also 2-for-3 against Pérez, whose sinker-heavy approach creates plenty of balls in play. Vaughn has 12 hits without a home run over his last 15 days, so his current production fits this prop particularly well.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE IRVINPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -107

I’m attacking the weakest part of this pitching matchup. Irvin has allowed 11 earned runs across his last 14 2/3 innings and has gone over this number in five of his last eight starts. His 5.80 ERA is supported by a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate. The pitch-level matchup is especially concerning. Irvin’s four-seamer and sinker combine for nearly half his usage while carrying .445 and .481 xwOBA marks. Miami has Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie and several strong contact hitters positioned to see those pitches repeatedly. At nearly even money, I’m betting the Marlins produce at least three earned runs before Irvin’s afternoon is finished.

GARY'S PICK

EURY PEREZPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +105

Pérez has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts, including consecutive scoreless outings covering 13 innings. Washington has averaged only 2.2 runs over its last five games, and today’s lineup is without CJ Abrams while also sitting Keibert Ruiz and Andrés Chaparro. Pérez can attack this order without leaning on one pitch. His four-seamer, slider and sweeper have allowed xwOBA marks of .260 or lower, while the slider, sweeper and changeup all generate whiff rates above 40%. He has also held left-handed hitters to a .180 average and .560 OPS. Getting under 1.5 at plus money is the value point.

THE LONG SHOT

GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +400

This is my long-price swing. Conine owns a 1.005 OPS with all 14 of his home runs coming in 142 at-bats against right-handed pitching. He has also hit four homers in 40 at-bats over the last 15 days, and batting second should give him multiple opportunities against Irvin. Irvin has surrendered 12 home runs in 71 1/3 innings, with six of the 13 recent scoring plays against him coming on homers. His four-seamer has produced a .445 xwOBA and his sinker sits at .481. Conine’s swing-and-miss creates volatility, but +400 adequately pays for it in a matchup tailored to his left-handed power.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW PAINTERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +115

I’ll take plus money against a starter carrying a 6.43 ERA overall and a 7.25 ERA through eight home starts. Painter’s four-seam fastball has produced a .469 xwOBA, while his slider sits at .398, leaving his two most-used pitches vulnerable. St. Louis has scored 5.6 runs per game over its last 10, with Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson both supplying legitimate damage in the middle of the order. Painter held the Cardinals to two runs 12 days ago, but he followed that by allowing five to Minnesota. Three earned runs is a reasonable target in this park.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE HARPERWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -120

Harper has drawn a walk in 14 of his last 15 games, and his recent 22% chase rate shows that the patience is sustainable. Quinn Mathews has issued three walks in each of his first two major-league starts, needing 192 pitches to cover nine innings. Harper has not hit left-handers especially well this season, but that does not eliminate his plate discipline; it can make Mathews even less willing to challenge him. I only need one cautious plate appearance at a manageable price.

GARY'S PICK

SHANE MCCLANAHANK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -118

This is primarily a workload bet. McClanahan threw only 57 pitches over 3⅓ innings in his first start back from the injured list, recording three strikeouts against this same Baltimore lineup. He has topped four strikeouts in just one of his last eight starts and is averaging fewer than five per start this season. Baltimore can swing and miss, but McClanahan needs five before Kevin Cash turns to a deep, rested bullpen. In his second start back, I do not expect enough runway.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON YOUNGPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -115

Young needs to complete six innings to beat this number, something he has done in only four of his last eight starts. Tampa Bay saw him five days ago and produced eight hits, three homers and four earned runs while forcing him out after four innings and 82 pitches. The Rays carry a .267 average and .759 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Young's 1.35 WHIP creates plenty of opportunities for extended innings. Baltimore has enough available relief depth to make an early move if the Rays threaten a second time through the order.

GARY'S PICK

CODY BRADFORDK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -145

Bradford has recorded five, one and four strikeouts in his three starts this season, never reaching the six needed to beat this line. His workload has topped 81 pitches only once, and he struck out just one Angel while completing seven innings against them eleven days ago. Bradford’s approach is built around changing speeds and generating manageable contact, not overpowering hitters. The Angels strike out plenty, but this number still asks for a level Bradford has not shown since returning. I’m laying the price on under 5.5.

GARY'S PICK

MOISES BALLESTEROSH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -135

Ballesteros has cleared this number in only two of his last fifteen games while batting .122 with two RBIs over that stretch. The matchup adds another concern: he owns a .133 average and .328 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he went 0-for-3 when he faced Bradford eleven days ago. Bradford’s changeup has limited hitters to a .211 average, giving him a dependable weapon against Ballesteros. The cleanup spot creates opportunities, but the Angels are also missing Nolan Schanuel and Wade Meckler. I’m betting Ballesteros finishes with no more than one combined hit, run and RBI.

GARY'S PICK

HUNTER BROWNK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBHouston Astros· +124

Brown has finished below six strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, including two of his last three. He has also walked 10 batters across those three outings and completed only five innings in each of his last two. That combination creates traffic and elevated pitch counts without guaranteeing enough outs to reach six strikeouts. At +124, I am taking the workload and command concerns to keep him under this number.

GARY'S PICK

JONAH HEIMHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -103

Heim is 3-for-39 over the last 15 days and has recorded a hit in only five of his last 15 games. He will bat from the left side against Brown, and that does not rescue the matchup: Heim owns a .169 average against right-handed pitching, while Brown has held left-handed hitters to a .213 average. Batting seventh with Houston's stronger bullpen waiting behind Brown, I like the 0-for-night at nearly even money.

THE LONG SHOT

BRETT SULLIVANHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +600

Brett Sullivan at +600 is my favorite long-ball price on the board. All seven of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching, covering only 128 at-bats, and he has gone deep three times in his last 15 days. His August production is up to a .281 average and 1.008 OPS, so this is more than a blind Coors Field swing. The matchup works. Tanner Bibee has allowed 19 home runs in 311 at-bats against left-handed hitters, compared with six in 248 at-bats against righties. Sullivan gets that favorable side, with warm weather and a 10 mph wind carrying toward right field. Batting eighth costs him some plate-appearance equity, but +600 implies only a 14.3% chance. His platoon power, recent form and the conditions put my estimate comfortably above that threshold.

THE LONG SHOT

NATHANIEL LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +500

Nathaniel Lowe has hit all 14 of his home runs against right-handed pitching while posting a .289 average and .888 OPS in that split. He is also batting .302 with an .867 OPS in August and owns two homers in 20 at-bats against Colorado this season. At +500, I’m getting a middle-of-the-order left-handed bat in an ideal power environment. Gabriel Hughes leans on a 92.3 mph four-seam fastball more than half the time, and his secondary options have not consistently protected it. Left-handed hitters own a .286 average and .772 OPS against him, while his last three starts have produced 19 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Lowe should receive multiple chances before reaching a vulnerable Colorado bullpen. Coors Field and the wind toward right add to a matchup that already clears the 16.7% break-even probability required by this price.

THE LONG SHOT

TY FRANCEHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +750

This price is too long for a cleanup hitter with 18 homers and a .891 OPS against right-handed pitching. France is seeing the ball well, producing a 92.7 mph average exit velocity with 10 hard-hit balls recently, and he went deep in the opener. Dean Kremer has allowed six homers in only 80 at-bats against righties, while his sinker has been punished for a .479 xwOBA. Petco takes something away from the power outlook, but not enough to justify +750.

THE LONG SHOT

FERNANDO TATIS JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +420

Tatis has six homers in his last 15 games and five barrels among his last 24 balls in play. That surge is supported by a 98.1 mph recent average exit velocity, an 18% whiff rate and disciplined chase numbers. Kremer has surrendered 13 homers in 53.1 innings and owns a fly-ball-heavy profile, giving a locked-in leadoff hitter multiple chances to punish one mistake.

THE LONG SHOT

GAVIN SHEETSHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +750

Sheets has hit all 16 of his home runs against right-handed pitching, producing that total in 280 at-bats. Kremer has been especially vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing seven homers in 118 at-bats with an .811 OPS, and his four-seam and sinker results leave clear damage lanes. Sheets carries swing-and-miss risk and bats seventh, but +750 pays well beyond the probability created by this specific matchup.

THE LONG SHOT

NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +700

I’m taking Nolan Arenado to homer at +700. He has gone deep four times in his last 15 games and owns 20 home runs this season, so this price is generous for a hitter batting fifth against a vulnerable starter. Rhett Lowder carries a 5.17 ERA, including 7.23 on the road, and his heavily used sinker has allowed a .436 expected wOBA. Arenado has shown his power is awake with four August homers, and Arizona should keep creating plate appearances against Lowder and Cincinnati’s weaker relief corps. Lowder has limited right-handed power, but the form, venue and payout make Arenado worth the swing.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL HUGHESPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 3.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +110

Hughes has surrendered 19 earned runs in 13.1 innings across his last three starts, clearing this number each time. Now he faces a Cleveland lineup with five left-handed hitters and three switch-hitters; lefties have batted .286 against him. The Guardians collected 14 hits Friday, and Hughes brings an 11.57 first-inning ERA into Coors with the wind blowing toward right. I’ll take him to allow at least four earned runs at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

STEVEN KWANWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +121

Kwan has drawn eight walks over his last four games, walking at least once in all four. His recent 7% whiff rate and 13% chase rate show how well he is controlling the zone, while Hughes has issued six walks across his last three starts. Batting leadoff should give Kwan five plate appearances if Cleveland creates traffic again. Plus money is enough for me to back one walk.

GARY'S PICK

HECTOR RODRIGUEZHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +100

Rodriguez is being pushed into the lineup by Michael Toglia’s fresh shoulder injury, but his bat has not shown enough to justify an over price. He has four hits in 34 at-bats this season, has recorded a hit in only four of his last 12 games and owns a 52% chase rate in his recent sample. Batting eighth against a pitcher with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.88 ERA at Chase Field further limits both his matchup and likely plate-appearance volume. Even money is the deciding factor for me.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL MORENOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +115

Moreno has cleared this number in 12 of his last 15 games while batting .345 with a 1.008 OPS over that stretch. The quality supports the results: 13 hard-hit balls and four barrels across his latest 22 balls in play. He is also 2-for-3 against Lowder, whose heavily used sinker has produced a .436 expected wOBA. With Moreno batting third and plus money attached, I’m backing him to get there through either an extra-base hit or another multi-hit night.

GARY'S PICK

FERNANDO TATIS JR.RUNS SCORED OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -105

I’m backing Tatis to score at nearly even money. He has crossed the plate in 11 of his last 15 games while producing a 1.201 OPS and six homers over that stretch. The contact supports the surge: five barrels and a 98.1 mph average exit velocity on his recent balls in play. Dean Kremer has an 11.57 first-inning ERA, and the weakest parts of his arsenal have been his four-seam fastball and sinker. That gives San Diego’s leadoff hitter an immediate path to create his own run, while Manny Machado and Ty France provide strong chances to bring him home if he reaches. Petco can suppress power, but Tatis does not need a home run to cash this.

GARY'S PICK

BYRON BUXTONH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -115

I’m fading Buxton’s combined production while the price remains close to even. He is 3-for-24 over his last 15 days, has not homered during that stretch and has cleared 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs in only four of his last 15 games. Casey Mize’s four-seam fastball has held hitters to a .188 average with a .207 expected wOBA, and he has allowed only two earned runs across his last 12 innings. Buxton always carries one-swing danger, but Petco reduces that power route. If Mize gets through the middle innings, Buxton must then deal with a San Diego bullpen carrying a 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Research

453

TURNOVERSBUF @ CLE
BUF commits 3 fewer turnovers per game
Zero giveaways against three tells you which sideline is playing under control and which one is pressing. Buffalo protecting the ball means every drive starts on schedule, with no short fields gifted to a Cleveland offense that already needs positive plays just to string a drive together. For the Browns, three giveaways piles onto everything else — a defense that's already leaking points doesn't have any cushion left to cover for a turnover-prone offense too. A shutout on giveaways over one game isn't necessarily permanent, since turnover counts swing on tipped balls and fumble bounces as much as decision-making, but if Cleveland can't flip that trend early, they're behind the sticks and behind the scoreboard at the same time.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
PACE & SCRIPTWSH @ DET
WSH holds the ball 8:52 longer per game
Washington has been able to play on its terms, stacking drives and keeping the opposing offense waiting. That style collides directly with a Detroit team that has struggled to sustain possession, because every quick exit gives Washington another chance to squeeze the game. One game can distort possession through turnovers, field position, or a single extended drive. Detroit needs to end Washington’s possessions quickly or the pace belongs to the visitors.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
TRENCHESATL @ IND
IND is +74 rush yards per game
ATL is at 59 rushing yards per game over 1 game; IND is at 133 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
TRENCHESATL @ IND
IND gets +2.3 more yards a carry
ATL is at 2.6 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; IND is at 4.9 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
TRENCHESPHI @ NE
PHI gets +2.8 more yards a carry
PHI is at 5.4 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; NE is at 2.6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
PASS RUSHNO @ LAR
LAR's offense takes 4 fewer sacks per game
NO is at 4 sacks taken per game over 1 game; LAR is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
PASS RUSHNO @ LAR
LAR's pocket leaks 35 fewer yards per game
NO is at 35 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; LAR is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
PASS RUSHNYG @ MIA
MIA's offense takes 3 fewer sacks per game
NYG is at 4 sacks taken per game over 1 game; MIA is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ CIN
CHI is scoring +18 points per game
CHI is at 34 points per game over 1 game; CIN is at 16 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ NE
NE runs +29 more plays per game
PHI is at 40 offensive plays per game over 1 game; NE is at 69 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ CLE
BUF is scoring +19 points per game
Buffalo has shown the ability to create a game state where Cleveland must chase points instead of choosing its preferred pace. That puts more pressure on every Cleveland possession and gives Buffalo greater control over when the game becomes aggressive. A one-game scoring margin can be shaped by field position and turnovers, so it does not isolate offensive quality by itself. Cleveland’s job is to keep the opening stretch quiet before Buffalo can dictate the terms.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
PACE & SCRIPTDAL @ ARI
DAL's defense gives up 16.5 fewer points per game
DAL is at 7 points allowed per game over 1 game; ARI is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ NE
NE holds the ball 13:24 longer per game
PHI is at 18:43 time of possession per game over 1 game; NE is at 32:07 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ MIN
BAL runs +22 more plays per game
BAL is at 76 offensive plays per game over 1 game; MIN is at 54 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ MIN
BAL holds the ball 11:50 longer per game
BAL is at 41:17 time of possession per game over 1 game; MIN is at 29:27 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
PACE & SCRIPTBUF @ CLE
BUF's defense gives up 20 fewer points per game
Buffalo’s defense has been keeping the game within a manageable script, while Cleveland’s defense has allowed opponents to dictate pace and pressure. If those identities meet again, Buffalo can remain balanced while Cleveland is pushed toward higher-risk possessions. One game of points allowed can be heavily influenced by turnovers and starting field position, so it is not purely a measure of defensive performance. Cleveland needs early stops to prevent Buffalo from controlling both the scoreboard and the style.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
FANTASY MATCHUPNO @ LAR
Puka Nacua's team carries a 34 implied total
fanduel puts LAR versus NO in one of this slate's stronger scoring environments. That is market context for a player who cleared the usage gate in the labeled 2025 baseline, not a coverage grade or projection.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
FANTASY MATCHUPATL @ IND
Bijan Robinson's team carries a 34.5 implied total
fanduel puts ATL versus IND in one of this slate's stronger scoring environments. That is market context for a player who cleared the usage gate in the labeled 2025 baseline, not a coverage grade or projection.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSATL @ IND
IND owns a +2.4 yards-per-play gap
ATL is at 3.2 yards per play over 1 game; IND is at 5.6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSCHI @ CIN
CHI owns a +3.1 yards-per-play gap
CHI is at 6.8 yards per play over 1 game; CIN is at 3.7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSNO @ LAR
LAR owns a +1.7 yards-per-play gap
NO is at 4.5 yards per play over 1 game; LAR is at 6.2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
QUARTERBACKBAL @ MIN
BAL's passing game is +171 yards per game
BAL is at 298 team passing yards per game over 1 game; MIN is at 127 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
QUARTERBACKCHI @ CIN
CHI's passing game is +189 yards per game
CHI is at 348 team passing yards per game over 1 game; CIN is at 159 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
QUARTERBACKCHI @ CIN
CHI averages +4.1 yards every time it drops back
CHI is at 8.3 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; CIN is at 4.2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
COACHINGDAL @ ARI
ARI gives away 51.5 fewer penalty yards per game
DAL is at 103 penalty yards per game over 1 game; ARI is at 51.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
COACHINGPHI @ NE
NE gives away 61 fewer penalty yards per game
PHI is at 96 penalty yards per game over 1 game; NE is at 35 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
COACHINGCHI @ CIN
CHI gives away 73 fewer penalty yards per game
CHI is at 10 penalty yards per game over 1 game; CIN is at 83 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
COACHINGBUF @ CLE
CLE gives away 56 fewer penalty yards per game
Ninety-eight yards in penalties is enough to erase a scoring drive or hand over a set of downs that should've ended in a punt, and it's the one column tonight where Buffalo is actually the sloppier team on the field. That matters most on the possessions Cleveland does manage to sustain — the same kind of automatic first down from a defensive penalty is exactly the sort of thing that could be padding a third-down number as strong as Cleveland's has been. For a Buffalo team otherwise dictating pace, scoring, and ball security, undisciplined penalties are the one built-in way to keep this closer than the rest of the profile suggests it should be. Penalty yardage also swings harder game to game than most box-score numbers, since a couple of holding calls or one personal foul can move the total without reflecting an actual discipline problem. Clean that up, and there's no obvious lever left for Cleveland to lean on to stay in this one.
P Edge side lost; final 31-7
QUARTERBACKATL @ IND
IND's passing game is +89 yards per game
ATL is at 133 team passing yards per game over 1 game; IND is at 222 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
QUARTERBACKPHI @ NE
NE's passing game is +109 yards per game
PHI is at 83 team passing yards per game over 1 game; NE is at 192 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
RED ZONEBUF @ CLE
BUF gets inside the 20 3 more times per game
Six trips inside the twenty against three says as much about who keeps putting themselves in easy scoring position as it does about who finishes once they get there. Buffalo doubling up Cleveland's red-zone chances means the Browns' defense is spending more snaps in the most dangerous part of the field, which wears on a unit that's already shown it can be had for points. Some of that gap traces back to field position rather than pure execution — a turnover or a short field can manufacture a red-zone trip just as easily as a long, sustained drive can, so the raw count overstates how often Buffalo is truly earning it play by play. Cleveland's margin for error shrinks every time this gap shows up again in the same direction.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
RED ZONECHI @ CIN
CHI scores on +66.7% more of its red-zone trips
CHI is at 100% red-zone scoring rate over 1 game; CIN is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
RED ZONEKC @ TB
TB scores on +66.7% more of its red-zone trips
KC is at 0% red-zone scoring rate over 1 game; TB is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
RED ZONEDAL @ ARI
ARI gets inside the 20 3 more times per game
DAL is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 1 game; ARI is at 5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
SITUATIONALBUF @ CLE
CLE converts third downs at a +21% clip
A third-down rate that lopsided says Cleveland's offense is actually sustaining drives better than the rest of tonight's numbers would suggest — moving the chains instead of living in long-yardage. But that efficiency isn't showing up where it counts, because with only three red-zone trips to Buffalo's six and three giveaways on the day, the Browns are doing the hard part of keeping drives alive and then losing them before the payoff. That's a real problem for Buffalo's defense to manage either way — stop them on third down or not, Cleveland is one clean finish away from cashing in a possession that should've ended in a punt. Rates like this move fast over a single game, since a couple of third-and-short conversions are enough to swing a percentage this far without it being a repeatable identity yet. Clean up the giveaways and finish drives, and this third-down number stops being a footnote for Cleveland and starts being the reason they hang around.
P Edge side lost; final 31-7
SITUATIONALBUF @ CLE
BUF converts fourth downs at a +66.7% clip
BUF is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; CLE is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
SITUATIONALBUF @ CLE
BUF moves the chains 14 more times per game
BUF is at 27 first downs per game over 1 game; CLE is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
SITUATIONALNYG @ MIA
NYG converts fourth downs at a +100% clip
NYG is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; MIA is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
SITUATIONALPHI @ NE
NE converts third downs at a +27.8% clip
PHI is at 0% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; NE is at 27.8% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
TURNOVERSBAL @ MIN
MIN commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
BAL is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; MIN is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
SITUATIONALBAL @ MIN
BAL moves the chains 16 more times per game
BAL is at 31 first downs per game over 1 game; MIN is at 15 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ IND
IND's defense gives up 14 fewer points per game
ATL is at 27 points allowed per game over 1 game; IND is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
PASS RUSHNYG @ MIA
MIA's pocket leaks 29 fewer yards per game
NYG is at 29 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; MIA is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
TURNOVERSATL @ IND
ATL puts 2 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
ATL is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; IND is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
TURNOVERSATL @ IND
ATL commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
ATL is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; IND is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
TURNOVERSBUF @ CLE
BUF throws 2 fewer picks per game
BUF is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 1 game; CLE is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
TURNOVERSWSH @ DET
WSH commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
Ball security decides who gets to dictate tempo and who's stuck reacting. Washington taking care of the football while Detroit has already given it away three times lets the Commanders play patient, structured ball — no forced throws, no panicked play-calling to erase bad field position. Turnover counts are also the fastest thing to swing in football, often decided by one friendly bounce or a tipped pass rather than actual sloppiness, so this gap is more fragile than most of tonight's other numbers. Still, right now it's Washington setting the terms and Detroit playing catch-up because of it.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
PACE & SCRIPTNO @ LAR
LAR's defense gives up 12 fewer points per game
NO is at 24 points allowed per game over 1 game; LAR is at 12 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
PASS RUSHNO @ LAR
NO's rush gets home 2 more times per game
NO is at 4 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; LAR is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
TURNOVERSPHI @ NE
NE's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
PHI is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; NE is at 4 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
TURNOVERSNO @ LAR
NO's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
NO is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; LAR is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
TURNOVERSKC @ TB
TB's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game
KC is at 0 takeaways per game over 1 game; TB is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
TRENCHESATL @ IND
IND's front holds runners to 79 fewer yards per game
Eighty-three yards allowed on the ground looks stout, but run defense is the stat most sensitive to game script — a team that got out ahead early and watched the other side abandon the run will always make a front look better than it would against a team committed to pounding it. Atlanta's front had the opposite result, giving up 162 yards on the ground, which points to a defense that couldn't control the line of scrimmage regardless of down or distance in its first game. Tonight that front gets tested by a new opponent, and on the other side of the ball, Indianapolis' own ground game gets to run against an Atlanta front that has already shown it can be moved. A number that lopsided usually means the softer front stays soft for at least another week, which favors Indianapolis controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball tonight.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
SITUATIONALATL @ IND
IND moves the chains 10 more times per game
ATL is at 11 first downs per game over 1 game; IND is at 21 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
SITUATIONALPHI @ NE
NE moves the chains 10 more times per game
PHI is at 6 first downs per game over 1 game; NE is at 16 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
RED ZONEWSH @ DET
DET holds red-zone trips to a score 66.7% less often
Keeping two of every three trips inside the 20 from producing points looks sharp, but with only a handful of red-zone possessions on the books, one stuffed run or one broken coverage swings that number hard in either direction. Washington's defense didn't manage a single stop like that, letting every opponent who reached its 20 walk away with points — a finishing problem, not just a matter of bending for yardage. Detroit's front has to show that discipline again tonight against a new opponent, and it's doing that across from a Washington offense that only needs to reach the 20 to find the going easy. Until Washington's defense proves it can turn one of those trips away empty-handed, Detroit is the side likelier to walk away from the red zone with points tonight.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
RED ZONEDAL @ ARI
DAL holds red-zone trips to a score 41.7% less often
DAL is at 25% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; ARI is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
RED ZONEPHI @ NE
NE holds red-zone trips to a score 41.7% less often
PHI is at 75% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; NE is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
RED ZONENO @ LAR
LAR holds red-zone trips to a score 40% less often
NO is at 40% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; LAR is at 0% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
RED ZONEKC @ TB
TB holds red-zone trips to a score 50% less often
KC is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; TB is at 0% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
QUARTERBACKBAL @ MIN
BAL averages +2.8 yards every time it drops back
BAL is at 7.5 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; MIN is at 4.7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
COVERAGEBUF @ CLE
BUF's secondary gives up 208 fewer passing yards per game
Holding a team to 140 through the air can mean a secondary is genuinely locking down routes, or it can mean the other side barely tested the perimeter and leaned on the run instead — one game doesn't separate those. What's clearer is Cleveland's defense already got hit for well over 300 yards passing, and a number that far off the norm usually means the coverage broke down across the board, not on one busted assignment. That's the group Buffalo's offense gets to attack tonight, so even before Buffalo's own pass defense proves itself against a real drop-back attack, the matchup on the other side of the ball already tilts favorably. A defense that leaky doesn't turn it around in a week, which makes Buffalo's passing game the side with the better path to a big night.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
COVERAGEBUF @ CLE
BUF's defense surrenders 3.3 fewer yards a snap
Under four yards a snap covers both phases, meaning Buffalo's front and its coverage were both winning in the first game, not just one or the other — that's harder to fake than a single flashy number. Cleveland sitting at 6.8 a play is the opposite story: giving up nearly seven yards a snap doesn't come from one bad matchup, it comes from the front getting moved and the coverage getting stretched behind it everywhere. That kind of leak doesn't fix itself in a week, and it hands Buffalo's offense a favorable path regardless of which weakness they choose to attack first. A front that wins on early downs the way Buffalo's did tends to keep winning them even when the opponent across the line changes.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
COVERAGEPHI @ NE
NE gets off the field on third down 33% more often
PHI is at 45.5% third downs allowed over 1 game; NE is at 12.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
COVERAGEDAL @ ARI
DAL's secondary gives up 176.5 fewer passing yards per game
DAL is at 49 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ARI is at 225.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
COVERAGEDAL @ ARI
DAL's defense surrenders 2.65 fewer yards a snap
DAL is at 3 yards per play allowed over 1 game; ARI is at 5.65 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
PASS RUSHKC @ TB
TB's rush gets home 4 more times per game
KC is at 0 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; TB is at 4 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
PASS RUSHPHI @ NE
PHI's rush gets home 2 more times per game
PHI is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; NE is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
PASS RUSHNYG @ MIA
MIA's rush gets home 2 more times per game
NYG is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; MIA is at 3 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
PASS RUSHBAL @ MIN
MIN's rush gets home 3 more times per game
BAL is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; MIN is at 4 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
COVERAGEBAL @ MIN
BAL gets off the field on third down 38.5% more often
Not allowing a single third-down conversion either means a defense is dominating first and second down to create impossible distances, or it just hasn't faced a real third-down attack yet — one game doesn't tell you which, and this is the number most likely to move first. Minnesota already let opponents convert better than one time in three, which usually traces back to a pass rush that isn't affecting the quarterback's first read rather than one blown coverage. Tonight Baltimore's shutdown unit gets a fresh test against Minnesota's offense, while Minnesota's shakier third-down defense is the group Baltimore's offense gets to work against if it wants to keep drives alive. A gap that wide after one week says Baltimore is controlling the down-and-distance battle better than Minnesota is right now, and that's the kind of formula that travels regardless of opponent.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
PASS RUSHBUF @ CLE
BUF's rush gets home 2 more times per game
Four sacks in one game can mean a pass rush plan clicked, or it can mean the quarterback across from it held the ball too long and the protection broke down on its own — one week doesn't sort out which. Either way, that pressure meets a new offensive line tonight, and whether it's the real thing shows up fast against protection it hasn't seen before. Cleveland's own front only got there twice, so if Buffalo's quarterback has time to operate tonight, this is the pass rush that hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt yet. The gap between four sacks and two says Buffalo's defense has been the more disruptive front through the first look at each team, and nothing about tonight's matchup says that flips.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
FANTASY USAGEATL @ IND
Bijan Robinson: 25.4 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
Bijan Robinson averaged 25.4 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Bijan Robinson is currently active for ATL; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. ATL faces IND next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
FANTASY USAGEWSH @ DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 12.8 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 12.8 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Amon-Ra St. Brown is currently active for DET; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. DET faces WSH next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTWSH @ DET
Cade Mays (C) is out for DET
Detroit now has to replace the player handling the middle of its offensive line. The next center takes the snaps and the communication duties, while the surrounding linemen may need to carry more of the interior workload. OUT leaves no late decision before kickoff, and the long recovery makes this a settled absence. Detroit’s offense takes the hit in both protection and inside blocking.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTATL @ IND
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) is questionable for ATL
Atlanta should have another quarterback prepared to run the offense because Penix had not progressed to full team work. If he sits, the next quarterback absorbs the available snaps and the offense loses a chance to operate with Penix under center. QUESTIONABLE normally leaves the door open this close to kickoff, but the lack of clearance makes his availability especially difficult to count on. Atlanta’s offense feels the entire impact.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
REPLACEMENTDAL @ ARI
Carson Beck (QB) is questionable for ARI
Beck (ribs) is practicing Saturday, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports. Reported Aug 15.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
REPLACEMENTWSH @ DET
Laremy Tunsil (OT) is out for WSH
Washington has to reshuffle its protection plan before the offense takes a snap. The next tackle in the rotation absorbs the work, with help likely tilted toward that edge. OUT is final this close to kickoff, and the surgery timeline makes this bigger than a one-night adjustment. Washington’s offense feels it most, especially in pass protection.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTWSH @ DET
Marcus Mariota (QB) is questionable for WSH
Washington needs another quarterback ready to take every snap assigned to Mariota. If he cannot go, the next quarterback in the rotation absorbs that entire workload rather than splitting an injured player into the plan. QUESTIONABLE this close to kickoff means the decision remains open and will come down to his knee being cleared. The effect stays on Washington’s offense and its quarterback rotation.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTCHI @ CIN
Coby Bryant (S) is out for CHI
Chicago has to move another defensive back into the safety workload and adjust the secondary around that replacement. The next safety absorbs the snaps, while the rest of the group takes on more responsibility in coverage and communication. OUT is absolute this close to kickoff, and the recovery window removes any chance of a quick return. Chicago’s defense, particularly the back end, takes the loss.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
REPLACEMENTKC @ TB
Patrick Mahomes (QB) is questionable for KC
Kansas City has to keep its quarterback plan flexible and have the next option ready for the full offensive workload. If Mahomes sits, the next quarterback absorbs the snaps while the rest of the offense adjusts to a different operator. QUESTIONABLE this close to kickoff means he has not been formally ruled out, but the knee has already prompted the team to hold him out once. Kansas City’s offense carries the impact.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
REPLACEMENTKC @ TB
Jake Browning (QB) is questionable for TB
Tampa Bay needs the next quarterback in its rotation ready to take Browning’s planned work. If the back keeps him out, those snaps transfer directly rather than leaving room for a limited role. QUESTIONABLE this close to kickoff means his availability is still awaiting a final call, even after he was held out of the opener. Tampa Bay’s offense and quarterback rotation feel the change.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
REPLACEMENTDAL @ ARI
Chase Bisontis (G) is out for ARI
Arizona has to replace Bisontis inside and settle the new combination before kickoff. The next guard in the rotation absorbs his snaps, with the neighboring linemen taking on more of the coordination. OUT is final, and placement on injured reserve makes this a longer-term change rather than a late game decision. Arizona’s offense feels it through the interior blocking and protection.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
MISMATCHBUF @ CLE
BUF's ball security against CLE's giveaways — 3 turnovers a game to BUF's 0
CLE's giveaway problem is the kind of self-inflicted damage that erases whatever good a defense does on early downs, because a short field turns one stop into zero. BUF doesn't have to force anything to cash in on that — an offense that already refuses to gamble with the football just needs the game to play out normally and the extra possessions show up on their own. The fix for CLE has to start before the snap, not after it — protecting the ball needs to be the standing rule all night, since a defense can only bail out so many drives that start at midfield. With BUF playing clean on their end, CLE's margin for error is basically zero before this one even kicks off.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
MISMATCHNO @ LAR
LAR's protection against a NO front — NO takes 4 sacks a game to LAR's 0
NO's whole defensive identity is built around getting after the quarterback, and a line that hasn't given up a sack is exactly the kind of matchup that neutralizes it before it ever shows up on the stat sheet. For NO's pressure to matter here, it has to come from a stunt or a delayed blitz that beats the scheme rather than a straight rush that beats a blocker, because a line playing this clean isn't getting bullied one-on-one. If LAR's protection holds the way it has, NO's secondary is stuck covering for a full play clock instead of the half-second window a good pass rush usually buys them. That's the real matchup inside this game — not who wins individual reps, but whether NO's front can generate pressure at all against a line that hasn't allowed a sack yet.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
MISMATCHBAL @ MIN
BAL's passing attack against MIN's — 298 pass yards a game to 127
BAL's air attack has the volume and the rhythm to make a secondary pay for sitting back, and that's not the kind of gap a two-deep shell papers over for four quarters — eventually the coverage has to bend. MIN's best shot at slowing it down is getting the pass rush home early and forcing checkdowns before those route combinations have time to develop, because daring BAL to be patient just invites more of what they've already shown they can do. On their own side of the ball, MIN's passing game doesn't have a second gear to lean on if the run stalls — no quick-strike answer if they fall behind early. That split points to BAL controlling the pace of this one through the air while MIN has to find offense somewhere else entirely.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
MISMATCHNYG @ MIA
MIA's protection against a NYG front — NYG takes 4 sacks a game to MIA's 1
NYG's front has shown it can consistently get home, and even a line that's held up as well as MIA's can lose a season's worth of results to one bad rep against a group that gets after the quarterback like that. MIA's answer has to be getting the ball out fast and leaning on the quick game to take away NYG's rush lanes before they ever develop, because trying to out-muscle that front for four quarters is how a clean track record turns messy in a hurry. If MIA's protection slips for even a series, NYG has shown they can turn a single bad snap into the play that flips field position or takes points off the board. The margin here is tighter than in some of these other fronts, which means this one gets decided by execution up front more than by scheme.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
MISMATCHCHI @ CIN
CHI's passing attack against CIN's — 348 pass yards a game to 159
CHI has shown they can hit big passing numbers without needing a shootout to get there, which means CIN's best chance to slow it down is winning with a four-man rush and forcing rhythm throws into tight windows before the pocket ever settles. Once CHI gets into a clean pocket and starts working through their route combinations, there isn't a coverage adjustment that fixes it after the fact — it has to be disrupted before it starts. On the other side, CIN's passing game isn't built to keep pace on its own, which means their offense needs the run game and the turnover battle to matter if they fall behind early. This is CHI's game to lose through the air, and CIN has to win almost everywhere else to make up the difference.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
MISMATCHPHI @ NE
NE's clock control — 32:07 of possession a game to PHI's 18:43
Controlling the ball the way NE does means controlling how many possessions the other offense even gets, and that kind of edge tends to show up more in the fourth quarter than the first. PHI's only way around it is scoring fast on the possessions they do get — short, efficient drives that don't need eight or nine plays to finish — because trying to match NE snap-for-snap in a long, grinding game plays right into the matchup NE wants. If NE dictates tempo the way they have, PHI's defense ends up on the field far more than their offense does, and that wears a defense down over four quarters no matter how well they play early. This is a game where PHI needs to be efficient in a hurry and NE just needs to keep doing what's already working, because possession gaps this wide tend to compound instead of even out.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
MISMATCHDAL @ ARI
DAL's defense against ARI's — DAL allows 7 a game, ARI 23.5
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — DAL 7, ARI 23.5, over 1 and 2 game samples.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
MISMATCHWSH @ DET
WSH's ball security against DET's giveaways — 3 turnovers a game to WSH's 1
DET's problem isn't a talent gap, it's discipline — a team that gives the ball away that often is beating itself before WSH's defense even has to win a rep. WSH's approach here doesn't need to be aggressive or opportunistic, they just have to stay clean, because an offense that already protects the football that well turns every DET mistake into a bonus possession instead of a coin flip. For DET to keep this from spiraling, it starts at the mesh point and in the pocket — cut down the careless throw into a window that isn't there, secure the ball through contact — because a defense can only bail out so many short fields in one night. If DET can't clean that up early, WSH doesn't need a big offensive plan, they just need to keep flipping the field until the possession math wins it for them.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
MISMATCHATL @ IND
IND's explosiveness against ATL's — 5.6 yards a snap to 3.2
IND isn't just picking up first downs, they're doing it in fewer bites, which means a blown coverage or a missed fit turns into a chunk play instead of just a first down — and that forces ATL's defense to win far more one-on-one reps than they're built for. The way ATL hides that gap is tackling in space and taking away the explosive shot plays that inflate a number like that, because if IND lands even a couple of those over-the-top throws or catch-and-run plays, this turns into a blowout by the second quarter. On the other side, ATL's offense grinding out short gains means long, low-value drives that stall before they ever threaten — exactly the kind of possession IND's defense is built to end without doing anything special. Line those two forces up and ATL needs a near flawless tackling performance just to keep this from getting away from them early.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ TB
TB is scoring +12 points per game
KC is at 12 points per game over 1 game; TB is at 24 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
PASS RUSHDAL @ ARI
DAL's offense takes 2 fewer sacks per game
DAL is at 0 sacks taken per game over 1 game; ARI is at 2 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
PASS RUSHBAL @ MIN
MIN's offense takes 2 fewer sacks per game
BAL is at 3 sacks taken per game over 1 game; MIN is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ MIN
BAL @ MIN carries a 16.5 market total
I read this as a game expected to make every scoring chance feel expensive, with long empty stretches and little room for sustained offense. The scoring that does arrive is expected to come through field position, short fields, or a rare isolated break rather than repeated clean drives. That expectation cracks if an early turnover or explosive score forces both sides out of a cautious script and creates extra possessions.
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ MIA
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 2nd against Jake Irvin (RHP)
Conine gets the combination I want: his stronger side, a right-handed starter and premium placement in the two-hole. I like his chances to make something happen with multiple looks at Irvin.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ MIA
Marlins are 9-3 vs Nationals this season
Miami's had Washington's number in every flavor of game this year, including a one-run finale that still broke their way. That's too broad a sample across too many different starters to call it a fluke. Hosting again tonight, nothing points to a reversal.
PACE & SCRIPTDAL @ ARI
ARI is scoring +11.5 points per game
DAL is at 17 points per game over 1 game; ARI is at 28.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSBUF @ CLE
BUF owns a +1.5 yards-per-play gap
BUF is at 6.4 yards per play over 1 game; CLE is at 4.9 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
COACHINGKC @ TB
TB gives away 46 fewer penalty yards per game
KC is at 83 penalty yards per game over 1 game; TB is at 37 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
TWO STARTSSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/17
Matt Wilkinson
Wilkinson brings a 1.69 xERA into a road-road week: Cleveland on Wednesday, then Boston on Sunday. That profile is too strong for me to overthink, even with both turns away from home. Plan around him and start both.
TEAM RECORDATL @ MIL
Brewers 7-1 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Milwaukee's playing complete baseball on Henderson's turn — clean defense, early runs, a pen that gets to sit down instead of scramble. Seven wins in eight tries like that isn't one arm carrying the load, it's a team clicking. Atlanta walks into that rhythm tonight; I want the home side.
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ CIN
CIN holds the ball 7:32 longer per game
CHI is at 25:57 time of possession per game over 1 game; CIN is at 33:29 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
PLATOON EDGETB @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Baltimore has Mayo batting third specifically to punish this left-on-right matchup. If the table setters reach, he should get an immediate chance to cash in.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ NE
NE's defense gives up 11 fewer points per game
PHI is at 24 points allowed per game over 1 game; NE is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
QUARTERBACKNO @ LAR
LAR averages +2.6 yards every time it drops back
NO is at 4.8 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; LAR is at 7.4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
FANTASY USAGENO @ LAR
Puka Nacua: 11.8 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Puka Nacua averaged 11.8 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Puka Nacua is currently active for LAR; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. LAR faces NO next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
QUARTERBACKATL @ IND
IND averages +2.6 yards every time it drops back
ATL is at 3.6 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; IND is at 6.2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ MIN
BAL is scoring +11 points per game
BAL is at 24 points per game over 1 game; MIN is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
PLATOON EDGECLE @ COL
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Gabriel Hughes (RHP), batting 5th
Lowe gets his preferred side against Hughes while batting in a spot designed to cash in traffic. I’m weighting that matchup more heavily than his overall season line tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TRENCHESKC @ TB
KC is +56 rush yards per game
KC is at 125 rushing yards per game over 1 game; TB is at 69 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
FANTASY USAGEBAL @ MIN
Derrick Henry: 22.6 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
Derrick Henry averaged 22.6 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Derrick Henry is currently active for BAL; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. BAL faces MIN next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
TRENCHESBUF @ CLE
BUF gets +1.8 more yards a carry
BUF is at 5.8 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; CLE is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
MISMATCHKC @ TB
KC's ground game against TB's — 125 rush yards a game to 69
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — KC 125, TB 69, over 1 and 1 game samples.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ BAL
Orioles are 9-4 vs Rays this season
Nine wins in thirteen tries against Tampa Bay, capped by a finale where both offenses showed up and Baltimore still won — that's an earned edge, not a scheduling accident. Back home again tonight, I like the Orioles to keep it going.
FANTASY USAGEATL @ IND
Jonathan Taylor: 22.4 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
Jonathan Taylor averaged 22.4 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Jonathan Taylor is currently active for IND; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. IND faces ATL next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
SITUATIONALDAL @ ARI
DAL converts third downs at a +17.8% clip
DAL is at 73.3% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; ARI is at 55.6% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
STARTER FORMCLE @ COL
Gabriel Hughes: 12.83 ERA over his last 3 starts
The command's gone — walks and hits piling up, not bad luck on balls in play — and an already-bad season ERA just got worse over his last three. Sending that into Coors is the worst possible landing spot; I'm attacking him early and staying on it all game.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
PLATOON EDGESTL @ PHI
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Andrew Painter (RHP)
Burleson gets Painter from his stronger side while batting third, so the matchup can pay off immediately. I like the intent behind putting that platoon advantage in a run-producing spot.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
FANTASY MATCHUPBUF @ CLE
James Cook III's team carries a 31.5 implied total
fanduel puts BUF versus CLE in one of this slate's stronger scoring environments. That is market context for a player who cleared the usage gate in the labeled 2025 baseline, not a coverage grade or projection.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
STREAKSTL @ PHI
PHI have won 7 straight
Philadelphia’s seven-game streak has been built with control and separation, not repeated lucky escapes. Bringing that form home makes the Phillies difficult to oppose tonight.
P team won 3-12
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSBAL @ MIN
BAL owns a +1.4 yards-per-play gap
BAL is at 5.8 yards per play over 1 game; MIN is at 4.4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
HEAT CHECKTB @ BAL
Pete Alonso: 1.320 OPS in Last 15 Days
Twenty-nine homers backing this heater says the power's real, and 53 plate appearances is plenty of runway for it to mean something. I like Alonso over his 1.5 total bases tonight.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKDET @ KC
Jac Caglianone: 1.322 OPS in Last 15 Days
Twenty-two bombs on the season says there's real thump under this stretch, stacked on a season line that was already good. I'll take the over on his 1.5 total bases tonight.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TRENCHESNYG @ MIA
NYG's front holds runners to 63 fewer yards per game
NYG is at 111 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MIA is at 174 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
TRENCHESKC @ TB
KC gets +1.7 more yards a carry
KC is at 4.5 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; TB is at 2.8 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
COOLING OFFOAK @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: .361 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jacob Lopez
Peña’s slump meets the wrong matchup for a clean rebound, with Lopez keeping him on his weaker side. I’m treating the .361 recent OPS as a legitimate concern tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
FANTASY USAGECHI @ CIN
Ja'Marr Chase: 10.8 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Ja'Marr Chase averaged 10.8 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Ja'Marr Chase is currently active for CIN; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. CIN faces CHI next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
REPLACEMENTBAL @ MIN
Skylar Thompson (QB) is on injured reserve for BAL
Baltimore placed Thompson (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Wednesday, Quentin Corpuel of the Ravens' official site reports. Reported Aug 12.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
COOLING OFFDET @ KC
Dillon Dingler: .376 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifty-four plate appearances is too much runway for this to be a bad-luck stretch — the swing itself has lost life. I'm leaving him off any prop or lineup stack against Kansas City tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/17
Blake Snell
Monday's road start against the Rockies is already banked, so this week comes down to one bullet — Sunday at home against the Pirates. A 2.16 xERA isn't puffery, that's the real skill level underneath him. PLAN_AROUND, no debate — start him Sunday and don't think twice about the opponent.
COACHINGNO @ LAR
LAR gives away 40 fewer penalty yards per game
NO is at 66 penalty yards per game over 1 game; LAR is at 26 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
SITUATIONALATL @ IND
ATL converts fourth downs at a +50% clip
ATL is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; IND is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
FANTASY USAGEDAL @ ARI
Trey McBride: 10.2 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Trey McBride averaged 10.2 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Trey McBride is currently active for ARI; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. ARI faces DAL next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
SITUATIONALCHI @ CIN
CHI converts fourth downs at a +50% clip
CHI is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; CIN is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
COACHINGBUF @ CLE
CLE's staff goes for it 2 more times per game on fourth down
BUF is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; CLE is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 31-7
BULLPENPIT @ LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Stewart and Hurt both worked back-to-back and shouldn't go more than an emergency inning, and six of seven relievers have logged multiple days in this stretch. If the Dodgers starter doesn't give length tonight, that pen is thinner late than the scoreboard will suggest.
RED ZONEBUF @ CLE
BUF holds red-zone trips to a score 33.3% less often
BUF is at 66.7% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; CLE is at 100% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
TEAM RECORDPIT @ LAD
Pirates 2-6 in Jared Jones's last 8 starts
Pittsburgh has dropped six of Jones’s last eight starts, including five in a row. Facing the Dodgers while that pattern is entrenched only increases the concern.
TEAM RECORDSF @ BOS
Giants 2-6 in Blade Tidwell's last 8 starts
Five straight losses stacked on that 2-6 mark means this stopped being bad luck a while ago. San Francisco hasn't found anything to slow it, and I want no part of the Giants in Boston tonight.
TEAM RECORDSTL @ PHI
Phillies 2-6 in Andrew Painter's last 8 starts
The lineup goes quiet or the pen turns a manageable deficit into a blowout, and it keeps happening on his turn — that's a pattern, not bad luck. I'm staying off Philadelphia until it breaks.
TEAM RECORDOAK @ HOU
Athletics 2-6 in Jacob Lopez's last 8 starts
Same issues showing up start after start — cold bats early or a pen handing back the lead — and that's on the roster, not the arm. Houston gets a struggling Athletics club on the road tonight, and I'm laying the wood with the home side.
TEAM RECORDTB @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts
Baltimore does the small things right on his starts — double plays, cashing in runners, letting the pen close instead of rescue. That's a team habit, and habits carry over. I like the Orioles to keep it rolling tonight.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ NYY
Yankees 6-2 in Ryan Weathers's last 8 starts
Three straight on top of that 6-2 mark says New York trusts him deep enough that the pen stays fresh behind him, and that trust is built on results. Toronto walks into the Bronx catching the Yankees at their most complete. I want New York tonight.
TRENCHESNYG @ MIA
MIA gets +1.6 more yards a carry
NYG is at 2.6 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; MIA is at 4.2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
TEAM RECORDCHC @ SEA
Cubs 6-2 in David Peterson's last 8 starts
Chicago has won six straight Peterson starts and six of his last eight overall. That kind of team rhythm travels, making the Cubs appealing in Seattle tonight.
COACHINGWSH @ DET
WSH gives away 37 fewer penalty yards per game
WSH is at 47 penalty yards per game over 1 game; DET is at 84 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ LAD
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Valdez moves into the two-hole with a lefty on the mound, maximizing both his plate appearances and his strongest split. I like the setup for his right-handed bat against Skubal.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
TRENCHESNYG @ MIA
MIA is +47 rush yards per game
NYG is at 70 rushing yards per game over 1 game; MIA is at 117 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
RED ZONEBAL @ MIN
BAL scores on +25% more of its red-zone trips
BAL is at 75% red-zone scoring rate over 1 game; MIN is at 50% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
REPLACEMENTNO @ LAR
Kendre Miller (RB) is questionable for NO
Miller (back) did not participate at the Saints' training camp practice Thursday, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Aug 6.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
REPLACEMENTNYG @ MIA
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) is questionable for NYG
Smith-Schuster (knee) will not play in Saturday's preseason game against the Vikings, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 15.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
REGRESSIONCLE @ COL
Gabriel Hughes: 6.69 ERA vs 3.41 xERA
A barrel rate barely above 4% and a hard-hit rate under 29% don't support a .267 average against — that's sequencing and defense, not stuff. Coors complicates the correction, but the process here says this ERA has a lot further to fall than rise.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
REPLACEMENTNO @ LAR
Jordyn Tyson (WR) is questionable for NO
Coach Kellen Moore acknowledged that Tyson's right hamstring injury "could" linger into the start of the regular season, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Aug 14.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
PACE & SCRIPTWSH @ DET
WSH's defense gives up 9 fewer points per game
WSH is at 7 points allowed per game over 1 game; DET is at 16 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTWSH @ DET
Jeremy McNichols (RB) is questionable for WSH
McNichols (quadriceps) did not participate at the Commanders' training camp practice Wednesday, Ben Standig of Big 100 Washington D.C. reports. Reported Aug 12.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTPHI @ NE
Makai Lemon (WR) is questionable for PHI
Lemon (hamstring) won't take part in Thursday's practice, Eliot Shorr-Parks of Sports Radio 94 WIP Philadelphia reports. Reported Aug 13.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
REPLACEMENTKC @ TB
Emeka Egbuka (WR) is questionable for TB
Egbuka had more tests done on his injured toe Friday, which confirmed a sprain that's stable, and the Buccaneers are optimistic that the second-year wide receiver will be available Week 1 at Cincinnati on Sunday, Sept. 13, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Reported Aug 14.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
PACE & SCRIPTNYG @ MIA
NYG holds the ball 5:56 longer per game
NYG is at 30:33 time of possession per game over 1 game; MIA is at 24:37 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
STREAKLAA @ TEX
TEX games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Texas games have stayed comfortably under during this five-game run, but tonight’s 7.5 already reflects that environment. I respect the streak while recognizing that the reduced number leaves much less margin.
P final total 3 vs 7.5
STREAKMIN @ SD
SD games have gone UNDER 5 straight
San Diego’s five straight unders have settled into a consistently quiet scoring range. The market has adjusted down to eight, but the recent pace still leaves a credible path underneath.
P final total 12 vs 8
STREAKDET @ KC
KC have won 5 straight
Kansas City’s five-game winning streak has come with real separation, marking a clear improvement from its earlier form. Detroit gets a Royals club playing its sharpest baseball right now.
P team won 1-3
STREAKSF @ BOS
BOS games have gone OVER 5 straight
Boston’s five straight overs have cleared with room, so this is not a streak built on late half-runs. Even with a slightly higher number tonight, the matchup still points toward scoring.
P final total 5 vs 8.5
COVERAGEATL @ IND
IND's defense surrenders 1.2 fewer yards a snap
ATL is at 5.2 yards per play allowed over 1 game; IND is at 4 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
COVERAGEPHI @ NE
NE's secondary gives up 76 fewer passing yards per game
PHI is at 298 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; NE is at 222 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
COVERAGEKC @ TB
TB's defense surrenders 1.2 fewer yards a snap
KC is at 6.2 yards per play allowed over 1 game; TB is at 5 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
PASS RUSHDAL @ ARI
DAL's rush gets home 1.5 more times per game
DAL is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; ARI is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
REPLACEMENTBUF @ CLE
Ty Johnson (RB) is questionable for BUF
Johnson (knee) did not participate in Thursday's practice, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 13.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
REPLACEMENTBUF @ CLE
Cedric Tillman (WR) is questionable for CLE
Tillman didn't practice Wednesday due to an undisclosed injury, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 13.
P Edge side lost; final 31-7
REPLACEMENTATL @ IND
Josh Downs (WR) is questionable for IND
Downs (groin) is back at practice Tuesday, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports. Reported Aug 11.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
REPLACEMENTATL @ IND
DJ Giddens (RB) is questionable for IND
Giddens did not participate in Sunday's training camp practice due to a hamstring injury, Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan reports. Reported Aug 9.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
REPLACEMENTBAL @ MIN
Dayton Wade (WR) is questionable for BAL
Wade (undisclosed) is not practicing Thursday, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports. Reported Aug 6.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
REPLACEMENTBAL @ MIN
Jordan Addison (WR) is questionable for MIN
Addison (thumb) is expected to be close to a full participant at the Vikings' night practice Sunday, Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. Reported Aug 9.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
REPLACEMENTNO @ LAR
Devin Neal (RB) is questionable for NO
Neal did not participate in Saturday's training camp practice due to a hamstring injury, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. Reported Aug 8.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
REPLACEMENTNO @ LAR
Puka Nacua (WR) is questionable for LAR
Head coach Sean McVay expects Nacua (groin), who is dealing with soreness in his psoas, to be "ready to go" in practice ahead of the team's second preseason game against the Saints on Aug. 22, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. Reported Aug 13.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
REPLACEMENTNYG @ MIA
Malik Nabers (WR) is questionable for NYG
Nabers (knee) isn't in uniform for Saturday's preseason opener against Minnesota, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 15.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
REPLACEMENTNYG @ MIA
Jalin Hyatt (WR) is questionable for NYG
Hyatt (ankle/leg) will not play in Saturday's preseason game against the Vikings, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 15.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
REPLACEMENTNYG @ MIA
Kevin Coleman Jr. (WR) is questionable for MIA
Coleman missed Friday's practice due to an undisclosed injury, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. Reported Aug 7.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
REPLACEMENTCHI @ CIN
Luther Burden III (WR) is questionable for CHI
Coach Ben Johnson said Tuesday that Burden (groin) is going to "hopefully" be ready by the start of the season, Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. Reported Aug 11.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
REPLACEMENTCHI @ CIN
Zavion Thomas (WR) is questionable for CHI
Thomas is dealing with knee soreness but isn't expected to miss much time, Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. Reported Aug 10.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
REPLACEMENTPHI @ NE
Britain Covey (WR) is questionable for PHI
Covey (hamstring) was a limited participant in Monday's practice, Brooks Kubena of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 10.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
REPLACEMENTPHI @ NE
Dameon Pierce (RB) is questionable for PHI
Pierce (hamstring) did not participate in Monday's practice, Brooks Kubena of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 10.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
REPLACEMENTPHI @ NE
DeVonta Smith (WR) is questionable for PHI
Smith (hamstring) won't participate in Thursday's practice, but he was spotted working out off to the side, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. Reported Aug 13.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
REPLACEMENTKC @ TB
Xavier Worthy (WR) is questionable for KC
Worthy (shoulder) will take part in Monday's practice, Pete Sweeney of The Kansas City Star reports. Reported Aug 10.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
REPLACEMENTDAL @ ARI
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR) is questionable for DAL
Valdes-Scantling (knee) will be sent for an MRI to evaluate his injury, head coach Brian Schottenheimer said Thursday, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports. Reported Aug 13.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
REPLACEMENTDAL @ ARI
James Conner (RB) is questionable for ARI
Head coach Mike LaFleur said Saturday that there is no timeline for Conner (foot) to participate in 11-on-11 drills in training camp practice, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Aug 15.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
TRENCHESWSH @ DET
WSH is +45 rush yards per game
WSH is at 174 rushing yards per game over 1 game; DET is at 129 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
BULLPENCHC @ SEA
Seattle Mariners pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
No one's been pushed back-to-back, so there's no hard scratch, but Muñoz has already thrown twice this stretch and the whole bridge in front of him — Bazardo, Domínguez, Speier, Ferrer — has too. Against a Cubs lineup that works counts, Seattle needs length from the rotation tonight or this gets messy late.
TURNOVERSDAL @ ARI
ARI puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
DAL is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; ARI is at 0 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
RED ZONEBAL @ MIN
BAL gets inside the 20 2 more times per game
BAL is at 4 red-zone trips per game over 1 game; MIN is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
TURNOVERSCHI @ CIN
CHI puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
CHI is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; CIN is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
QUARTERBACKPHI @ NE
NE averages +2 yards every time it drops back
PHI is at 3.2 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; NE is at 5.2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
TURNOVERSBUF @ CLE
BUF puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
BUF is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; CLE is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
TURNOVERSNYG @ MIA
NYG commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
NYG is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; MIA is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
TURNOVERSNO @ LAR
LAR puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
NO is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; LAR is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
TURNOVERSBAL @ MIN
MIN puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
BAL is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; MIN is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
FANTASY USAGEBUF @ CLE
James Cook III: 17.8 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
James Cook III averaged 17.8 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms James Cook III is currently active for BUF; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. BUF faces CLE next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
TRENCHESBUF @ CLE
BUF is +43 rush yards per game
BUF is at 151 rushing yards per game over 1 game; CLE is at 108 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
TURNOVERSWSH @ DET
WSH puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
WSH is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; DET is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
COOLING OFFCIN @ ARI
JJ Bleday: .418 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bleday’s .418 OPS across 51 plate appearances is too far below his baseline to wave away. I’m treating him as a diminished offensive threat in Arizona tonight.
P 4-for-6, 10 TB
PLATOON EDGETB @ BAL
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 5th against Brandon Young (RHP)
Hicks gets Young from his much stronger side while batting fifth in Tampa Bay’s order. If the hitters ahead of him create traffic, he is well placed to drive it in.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB
TURNOVERSATL @ IND
ATL's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
ATL is at 1 takeaways per game over 1 game; IND is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
PLATOON EDGEATL @ MIL
Andrew Vaughn (bats R) hits 5th against Martin Perez (LHP)
Vaughn’s strength against lefties lands in a useful fifth spot behind Milwaukee’s main bats. That gives him a real chance to turn his platoon edge against Perez into run production.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
TURNOVERSNO @ LAR
LAR commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
NO is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; LAR is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
TURNOVERSDAL @ ARI
ARI commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
DAL is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; ARI is at 0 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
HR THREATGuardians @ Rockies
Brett Sullivan
Gary's Take Brett Sullivan at +600 is my favorite long-ball price on the board. All seven of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching, covering only 128 at-bats, and he has gone deep three times in his last 15 days.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADLAA @ TEX
Angels are 8-5 vs Rangers this season
A handful of losses tempers how much to trust the overall edge, and the freshest data point — a close, recent game — actually went to Texas. With the Rangers hosting again, I lean Texas over the cumulative number.
COOLING OFFCIN @ ARI
Elly De La Cruz: .514 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifty-six plate appearances is the deepest sample in this group, so this dip carries real weight — the swing's actually lost sharpness, not just missed some luck. Expect flashes of the talent in individual at-bats even while the overall line keeps lagging.
P 4-for-6, 8 TB
PLATOON EDGECIN @ ARI
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Nootbaar gets the leadoff spot and his preferred handedness matchup, giving him maximum chances against Lowder. The split is not overwhelming, but the placement makes the edge useful.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
COVERAGEWSH @ DET
WSH gets off the field on third down 13.9% more often
WSH is at 25% third downs allowed over 1 game; DET is at 38.9% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
BULLPENCLE @ COL
Colorado Rockies pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Manfredi's gone back-to-back and should be emergency-only, Romano's worked twice, and Agnos is already carrying 61 pitches across two outings. Nine different arms used in three games — Cleveland cashing in on a soft middle inning is very much in play.
COOLING OFFTB @ BAL
Junior Caminero: .590 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .896 season line dropping to .590 says more about how good the baseline was than any real breakdown. I'd buy into him against Baltimore tonight, not fade him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STARTER FORMPIT @ LAD
Jared Jones: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Eighteen hits in twelve innings is a pitcher getting squared up, not a bad-luck stretch, and jumping from the mid-4s to a 9.00 ERA over three starts is too big to be noise. Landing in Dodger Stadium against that lineup is the wrong place to work through it — I'm playing against him.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
COOLING OFFWSH @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .483 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifty-three trips to the plate is too big a sample to chalk this up to hard-hit balls finding gloves — the swing's flattened out. He's the weak link in that lineup until the rate climbs back.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALATL @ IND
ATL converts third downs at a +14.2% clip
ATL is at 26.7% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; IND is at 12.5% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
HEAT CHECKMIN @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.132 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifteen homers and an already strong season line says this is a good hitter locking in, not a two-week mirage. The 1.5 total bases ask is the tougher one on the board tonight, but it's exactly the kind of damage this bat's been doing.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
SITUATIONALCHI @ CIN
CHI moves the chains 7 more times per game
CHI is at 22 first downs per game over 1 game; CIN is at 15 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
HEAT CHECKCHC @ SEA
Alex Bregman: 1.061 OPS in Last 15 Days
Sixteen homers already and 51 plate appearances of this form is a real foundation under the surge. I like him to clear 0.5 total bases in Seattle.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ NYY
Yankees are 9-6 vs Blue Jays this season
That many losses mixed into a 9-6 mark says this is a real rivalry, not a mismatch — an edge, but not a dominant one. New York hosting tonight matters more than the season series does.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ NYY
Alejandro Kirk: 1.148 OPS in Last 15 Days
Already comfortably above average for the season, and climbing this much further over 45 plate appearances is a real heater, not a hot weekend. That 0.5 total bases line should clear without much stress tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ NYY
Trent Grisham: 1.083 OPS in Last 15 Days
Seventeen homers on the season and running this hot for 47 plate appearances is too long to be a soft-schedule mirage. The 0.5 total bases number is about as light a lift as these props get — I'm on it.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSSeattle Mariners — week of 8/17
Bryce Miller
Tuesday's start against the Brewers is history. What's live is Sunday at home versus the Cubs, and a 3.03 xERA keeps him solidly in must-start company. PLAN_AROUND — he goes Sunday, the matchup doesn't move the needle.
HEAT CHECKNYM @ CHW
Bo Bichette: 1.018 OPS in Last 15 Days
Same shape — a modest season mark makes 49 plate appearances this hot a real heater, and 12 homers on the year shows he can turn it into extra-base pop. I like him to clear 1.5 total bases.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
HEAT CHECKSTL @ PHI
Alec Bohm: 1.018 OPS in Last 15 Days
His modest season baseline means this run over 45 plate appearances is doing real work — a genuine heater, not a hidden true level. The 1.5 total bases ask is tougher, but it fits a hitter mid-heater.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HR THREATGuardians @ Rockies
Nathaniel Lowe
Gary's Take Nathaniel Lowe has hit all 14 of his home runs against right-handed pitching while posting a .289 average and .888 OPS in that split. He is also batting .302 with an .867 OPS in August and owns two homers in 20 at-bats against Colorado this season.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
STARTER FORMLAA @ TEX
Ryan Johnson: 2.51 ERA over his last 3 starts
The 6.41 season ERA is stale — over his last three starts the walk-and-hit rate and the strikeouts both point to genuinely sharper stuff. I'd back the improved version of him at Texas before the market catches up and moves the number.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
PLATOON EDGETOR @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Garcia gets his preferred left-on-right matchup from the cleanup spot, where traffic ahead of him can turn the edge into runs. I like this lineup position as a deliberate run-production opportunity against Cease.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ LAD
Spencer Horwitz: .331 OPS in Last 15 Days
Horwitz’s .331 OPS comes from a smaller sample, but the decline is still too sharp to call routine noise. Against the Dodgers, I’m fading him rather than betting on an immediate correction.
SITUATIONALNYG @ MIA
NYG converts third downs at a +13.5% clip
NYG is at 38.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; MIA is at 25% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
COOLING OFFOAK @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez: .668 OPS in Last 15 Days
Forty-one trips is a small window, and this reads far more like results lagging the contact than a bat that's lost anything. Betting against a 1.045 season hitter off a slump this size is exactly the kind of trap that costs people money.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COVERAGEKC @ TB
KC gets off the field on third down 13.5% more often
KC is at 25% third downs allowed over 1 game; TB is at 38.5% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
HR THREATTwins @ Padres
Ty France
Gary's Take This price is too long for a cleanup hitter with 18 homers and a .891 OPS against right-handed pitching. France is seeing the ball well, producing a 92.7 mph average exit velocity with 10 hard-hit balls recently, and he went deep in the opener.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
COVERAGENYG @ MIA
NYG gets off the field on third down 13.7% more often
NYG is at 33.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; MIA is at 47.1% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
COOLING OFFPIT @ LAD
Freddie Freeman: .548 OPS in Last 15 Days
Freeman’s .548 OPS is a legitimate cold spell, but it has not changed my view of his underlying ability. Back home against Pittsburgh, he is the slumping hitter I’m most willing to back for a response.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
CLOSER WATCHDET @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Erceg's carrying just a 2-save edge on Lange in a real committee, but he's the one who hasn't pitched in three days — fully fresh — and KC is a modest -112 home favorite on Detroit. That's a live look at the ninth if the Royals are up late. Start him with confidence, but this job is shared — keep Lange stashed as your handcuff, since a 2-save gap in a committee flips fast.
CLOSER WATCHCIN @ ARI
Brandyn Garcia / Dennis Santana
Garcia's saves total undersells him — 4 saves next to 13 holds says Arizona's using him all over the high-leverage innings, not just parking him in the ninth. He's fresh (1 outing his last 3) and the D-backs are big -174 favorites on Cincinnati, so the lead should be there to protect. Playable tonight on workload and the number, but treat him as a streaming piece — a 13-hold, 4-save role isn't a locked closer job, and Santana's right there 2 saves back in the same committee.
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 8/17
Alec Gamboa
Monday's start against the Diamondbacks is off the board already. Today's the one that counts — Gamboa at home against the Giants — and a 2.43 xERA is as clean a number as anyone on this list is carrying. PLAN_AROUND — he's in the lineup today, full send regardless of the Giants' lineup card.
COOLING OFFLAA @ TEX
Brandon Nimmo: .523 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Johnson
Nimmo’s slump has not erased his solid season baseline, but Johnson keeps him in his less productive matchup against right-handed pitching. I’m cautious rather than forcing a rebound play.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BALLPARKCLE @ COL
In 4 games at Coors Field, Gabriel Hughes pitches to a 3.86 ERA
That's the split you don't expect — Coors is supposed to inflate ERAs, and instead it's the building where he's looked sharpest, with hitters still missing barrels at altitude. He's right back at Coors tonight, the better half of his own split.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
COOLING OFFOAK @ HOU
Jonah Heim: .328 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Brown
Heim’s .328 recent OPS lines up with a broader weakness against right-handed pitching. Brown attacks exactly that vulnerable side, making this a fade spot for me.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKNYM @ CHW
Miguel Vargas: 1.138 OPS in Last 15 Days
Vargas’s surge has strong season-long power behind it, making this more than a soft-opponent spike. I like over 1.5 total bases against the Mets because one clean power swing can cash it.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB, 4 BB
QUARTERBACKKC @ TB
Patrick Mahomes starts at quarterback for KC
Mahomes is winning through arm volume and sustained production, not pristine efficiency or spotless ball security. He can carry the passing game, but the interceptions leave less room for wasted possessions. Going on the road to Tampa Bay while listed questionable tests whether he can maintain that workload and still play clean.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
PACE & SCRIPTWSH @ DET
WSH runs +13 more plays per game
WSH is at 71 offensive plays per game over 1 game; DET is at 58 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTBAL @ MIN
Gavin Bartholomew (TE) is questionable for MIN
Back
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
BULLPENOAK @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Abreu's into a second outing this week and likely capped, and Sousa and Okert both got touched twice as well. Oakland's lineup isn't the one to make a tired middle relief crew pay, but a close or extra-inning game still leans hard on that setup crew.
TURNOVERSBAL @ MIN
MIN throws 1 fewer picks per game
BAL is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 1 game; MIN is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
TURNOVERSWSH @ DET
WSH throws 1 fewer picks per game
WSH is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 1 game; DET is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
STREAKOAK @ HOU
OAK have lost 4 straight
Oakland’s four-game skid sits inside a broader stretch of poor play, and the negative margin shows these have not all been coin-flip losses. Going to Houston is more likely to extend the slide than reset it.
P team won 4-3
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/17
Cristopher Sánchez
Monday's start against the Marlins is banked. Sunday at home against the Cardinals is the one on the table, and a 3.34 xERA is a step behind the truly elite arms on this list but still very much rosterable. PLAN_AROUND — start him Sunday, the Cardinals matchup isn't a reason to sit a trusted arm.
TURNOVERSNYG @ MIA
NYG throws 1 fewer picks per game
NYG is at 2 interceptions thrown per game over 1 game; MIA is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
COOLING OFFMIN @ SD
Trevor Larnach: .338 OPS in Last 15 Days
Thirty-two trips is the smallest sample in this group, and a drop this steep over that few plate appearances reads more like a brutal week than a broken swing. I'd keep expectations low and let the rest of that lineup carry the weight tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PACE & SCRIPTNYG @ MIA
NYG @ MIA carries a 29.5 market total
I expect scoring to come in pockets here, with enough offense to avoid a complete freeze but not enough consistency for drives to keep stacking. The game is being framed around stalled possessions and a limited number of clean touchdown chances. It breaks open if both sides finish early drives or if mistakes repeatedly hand the offenses short fields.
TURNOVERSCHI @ CIN
CIN throws 1 fewer picks per game
CHI is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 1 game; CIN is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
TRENCHESNO @ LAR
LAR is +37 rush yards per game
NO is at 56 rushing yards per game over 1 game; LAR is at 93 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
COVERAGECHI @ CIN
CIN's secondary gives up 61 fewer passing yards per game
CHI is at 206 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; CIN is at 145 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
PASS RUSHWSH @ DET
DET's pocket leaks 12 fewer yards per game
WSH is at 29 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; DET is at 17 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
REPLACEMENTATL @ IND
Le'Meke Brockington (WR) is on injured reserve for ATL
Brockington (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Falcons on Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Aug 12.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
SITUATIONALBAL @ MIN
BAL converts third downs at a +12.1% clip
BAL is at 45.5% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; MIN is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
HR THREATNationals @ Marlins
Griffin Conine
Gary's Take This is my long-price swing. Conine owns a 1.005 OPS with all 14 of his home runs coming in 142 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTBUF @ CLE
Connor McGovern (C) is questionable for BUF
McGovern had to leave practice early Saturday due to what appeared to be a right leg injury, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports. Reported Aug 9.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
AFTER GARYCHI @ CIN
CIN +2 → +3.5
FANATICS · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
REPLACEMENTBUF @ CLE
Michael Hoecht (DE) is questionable for BUF
The Bills have been working Hoecht (Achilles) into full team drills since the start of training camp, Tim Graham of The Athletic reports. Reported Aug 4.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
COOLING OFFSF @ BOS
Jung Hoo Lee: .517 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Lee’s cold stretch looks recoverable, but Sandoval keeps him in his weaker matchup against left-handed pitching. I’m treating him as a cautious fade tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTCHI @ CIN
Dayo Odeyingbo (DE) is questionable for CHI
Achilles
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
PASS RUSHBAL @ MIN
MIN's pocket leaks 12 fewer yards per game
BAL is at 16 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; MIN is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
PARK WEATHERNYM @ CHW
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Rate Field tonight
A 13 mph wind blowing toward right field puts every elevated ball in play at Rate Field. With both lineups getting the same boost, I see a clear path toward extra-base damage and an over at 8.5.
P final total 15 vs 8.5 (over lean)
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSKC @ TB
KC owns a +0.9 yards-per-play gap
KC is at 4.9 yards per play over 1 game; TB is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 15-16
PACE & SCRIPTNYG @ MIA
NYG's defense gives up 7 fewer points per game
NYG is at 13 points allowed per game over 1 game; MIA is at 20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
COOLING OFFTOR @ NYY
Ben Rice: .620 OPS in Last 15 Days
Smallest gap in this whole group — that's normal week-to-week variance, not a breakdown. This is a buy-low spot against Toronto, not a fade.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
COOLING OFFCHC @ SEA
Cole Young: .451 OPS in Last 15 Days
The season mark here was never elite to begin with, so there wasn't far to fall — this reads as ordinary variance. I'm leaving him off any prop card tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
QUARTERBACKDAL @ ARI
ARI's passing game is +46 yards per game
DAL is at 201 team passing yards per game over 1 game; ARI is at 247 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
TWO STARTSKansas City Royals — week of 8/17
Daniel Lynch IV
Tuesday's start against the Athletics is already played out. Sunday at home against the Tigers is the live one, and a 3.62 xERA puts him a notch below the set-and-forget arms — this is a matchup you actually weigh, not just pencil in. STREAM_BOTH — judge Sunday against the Tigers on its own merits before committing the roster spot.
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/17
Zack Wheeler
Tuesday's start against the Marlins is already in the books. Sunday he's back home against the Cardinals for the start that actually matters this week, and a 2.78 xERA is exactly the kind of number that earns automatic-start status. PLAN_AROUND — Sunday's a lock, don't overthink the Cardinals angle.
BULLPENATL @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Megill's gone back-to-back and should be down or limited if he's needed again, but the rest of the pen isn't nearly as taxed as the total innings suggest — Hall, Patrick, Ashby and Wilson all did their work in one outing apiece. Milwaukee can handle a longer look against Atlanta as long as it's not leaning on Megill late.
CUT LISTTEX tonight
Cody Bradford
A 2.94 ERA sitting on top of a 5.98 xERA is about as loud a red flag as this game hands you — a three-run gap between what's happened and what should be happening. I don't care how clean the box scores look, that split means the underlying process is getting hit hard and the results just haven't caught up yet. He takes the ball again tonight, so you're one clunker away from watching that shiny ERA come back to the field fast. Cut him. Sell the ERA before the market catches up to what the process already knows.
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ LAD
Dodgers are 3-1 vs Pirates this season
A handful of games is one short series' worth of information, and the one loss plus a one-run finale shows it wasn't as clean as the record makes it look. The Dodgers hosting tonight matters more than anything drawn from a sample this small.
PACE & SCRIPTWSH @ DET
WSH @ DET carries a 30.5 market total
This points to a controlled game where scoring is expected to build slowly instead of arriving through a steady exchange of touchdowns. A few successful drives can carry the night because the baseline assumes plenty of possessions end without points. That view cracks if either side creates quick scores and forces the other to answer with more urgency.
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · AUG 29
BDL lists 6 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 6 kickoff times are confirmed.
TWO STARTSNew York Mets — week of 8/17
Nolan McLean
Monday's start against the Padres is already locked into the box score. Sunday on the road against the White Sox is what's left to plan around, and a 3.7 xERA — the highest mark in this group — keeps him strictly in streaming territory. STREAM_BOTH — only deploy him Sunday if you need the innings and like the White Sox spot, he's not an auto-include.
BULLPENWSH @ MIA
Miami Marlins pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Ekness and Zuber are the two who are actually gassed, both touched twice with real pitch counts behind them, while Fairbanks is still fresh. If the starter doesn't work deep against Washington, Miami's middle innings are leaning on tired legs.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ COL
Guardians are 2-0 vs Rockies this season
Two games is barely a series, and a lopsided final score usually says more about one good day than any real form line. Tonight comes down to whoever actually shows up and pitches well, not a snapshot this small.
PASS RUSHATL @ IND
ATL's pocket leaks 11 fewer yards per game
ATL is at 1 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; IND is at 12 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ ARI
Diamondbacks are 4-2 vs Reds this season
A modest edge that's getting inflated by one lopsided finale — pull that game out and the series reads a lot closer. Arizona hosting again lines up with a real, if slightly overstated, edge.
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ NYY
Louis Varland
No committee here — Varland's the guy, and his 28 saves say Toronto trusts him over Sewald even with Sewald sitting on 24 of his own. He's fresh off just 1 outing in the last 3, and the Jays are a true coin-flip favorite at -102 in New York. Roster him and stop thinking about it — the one unambiguous closer job on this board. If he's somehow on your waiver wire, that's the add of the week.
COVERAGENO @ LAR
NO gets off the field on third down 10.4% more often
NO is at 33.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; LAR is at 43.8% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
TOMORROWCLE @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.7 ERA vs 7.05 xERA
A 13.5% barrel rate and a 44% hard-hit rate are the worst marks in this group, and they don't support the .266 he's actually allowing. Doing this again at home in Colorado tomorrow is the worst spot to keep out-running that much hard contact — I'd play against him.
TWO STARTSSt. Louis Cardinals — week of 8/17
Quinn Mathews
Monday's start against the Reds is done. Today's the one that decides his week — another road start, this time against the Phillies — and the 3.08 xERA underneath him all year is exactly why he sits in the PLAN_AROUND tier. PLAN_AROUND — start him today, no hesitation.
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ IND
IND holds the ball 4:13 longer per game
ATL is at 23:40 time of possession per game over 1 game; IND is at 27:53 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
TRENCHESBAL @ MIN
BAL is +31 rush yards per game
BAL is at 142 rushing yards per game over 1 game; MIN is at 111 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
RED ZONEATL @ IND
ATL scores on +16.7% more of its red-zone trips
ATL is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 1 game; IND is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
RED ZONEBUF @ CLE
BUF scores on +16.7% more of its red-zone trips
BUF is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 1 game; CLE is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
SITUATIONALWSH @ DET
WSH converts third downs at a +10.7% clip
WSH is at 47.1% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; DET is at 36.4% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
PACE & SCRIPTWSH @ DET
WSH is scoring +6 points per game
WSH is at 20 points per game over 1 game; DET is at 14 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
REGRESSIONSTL @ PHI
Edmundo Sosa: .219 AVG vs .279 xBA
Sosa’s .219 average is lagging well behind a .279 expected mark, which makes him a hitter I want before the results fully correct. I see him as a rebound candidate against St. Louis.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
STARTER FORMTOR @ NYY
Ryan Weathers: 0.95 ERA over his last 3 starts
A sub-1.00 ERA and a WHIP under 0.90 across three full starts isn't a hot streak, that's a pitcher who's tightened everything up at once. Yankee Stadium against that lineup is a real test, but I'd bet the improved pitcher over the stale season number.
P 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
STARTER FORMMIN @ SD
Casey Mize: 5.87 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ten earned runs in his last three outings and a WHIP climbing from 1.07 to 1.50 is a genuine step back, not a couple of unlucky bounces. Petco helps him some tonight, but I'd rather play the pitcher who's actually taken the mound these last three weeks.
P 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
AFTER GARYDAL @ ARI
ARI -0.5 → +0.5
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AFTER GARYBAL @ MIN
BAL +3.5 → +2.5
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COACHINGBAL @ MIN
BAL gives away 24 fewer penalty yards per game
BAL is at 25 penalty yards per game over 1 game; MIN is at 49 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
COVERAGEWSH @ DET
WSH's secondary gives up 50 fewer passing yards per game
WSH is at 109 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; DET is at 159 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ IND
IND is scoring +6 points per game
ATL is at 7 points per game over 1 game; IND is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
PACE & SCRIPTNO @ LAR
NO runs +10 more plays per game
NO is at 62 offensive plays per game over 1 game; LAR is at 52 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ NE
NE is scoring +6 points per game
PHI is at 7 points per game over 1 game; NE is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
PASS RUSHKC @ TB
TB's offense takes 1 fewer sacks per game
KC is at 2 sacks taken per game over 1 game; TB is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
PASS RUSHPHI @ NE
PHI's offense takes 1 fewer sacks per game
PHI is at 1 sacks taken per game over 1 game; NE is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
PASS RUSHDAL @ ARI
DAL's pocket leaks 10 fewer yards per game
DAL is at 0 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; ARI is at 10 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
PASS RUSHCHI @ CIN
CHI's rush gets home 1 more time per game
CHI is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; CIN is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
PASS RUSHATL @ IND
IND's rush gets home 1 more time per game
ATL is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; IND is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
PASS RUSHWSH @ DET
DET's offense takes 1 fewer sacks per game
WSH is at 3 sacks taken per game over 1 game; DET is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
QUARTERBACKBUF @ CLE
BUF's passing game is +39 yards per game
BUF is at 245 team passing yards per game over 1 game; CLE is at 206 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
SITUATIONALWSH @ DET
WSH moves the chains 5 more times per game
WSH is at 21 first downs per game over 1 game; DET is at 16 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
SITUATIONALBUF @ CLE
BUF (1-0) at CLE (0-1)
Buffalo's plus-15 says their opener wasn't a coin flip — that's a team playing clean, organized football out of the gate. Cleveland's minus-24 is the real story, though: getting outscored by that much in one game points to trouble on both sides of the ball, not just a bad bounce or two. A 39-point swing in performance level is enormous for a week-one preseason gap, and it lines up with Buffalo carrying the clear momentum into this one. Nothing on the ledger yet for either team at home or on the road, so tonight is new ground, but Buffalo is the side that's already shown it can execute.
P Edge side lost; final 31-7
COVERAGEBAL @ MIN
BAL's secondary gives up 48 fewer passing yards per game
BAL is at 83 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MIN is at 131 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
REGRESSIONOAK @ HOU
Jacob Lopez: 5.22 ERA vs 3.44 xERA
A hard-hit rate under 29% and a barrel rate just over 5% is about as clean a contact line as you'll find, yet he's allowing .262 against it. On the road at Houston tonight, I like his number to start looking a lot more like 3.44 than 5.22.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
BALLPARKCIN @ ARI
Michael Soroka owns a 1.88 ERA at Chase Field — 4.35 everywhere else
That split isn't the park bailing him out — hitters are actually missing barrels in that building, which says the command itself is sharper there. He's right back in that same ballpark tonight against Cincinnati.
P 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
AFTER GARYATL @ IND
ATL +3.5 → +3.5
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PLATOON EDGETOR @ NYY
Ben Rice (bats L) hits 2nd against Dylan Cease (RHP)
Rice gets his preferred platoon matchup against Cease while batting second, maximizing both his early involvement and total plate appearances. I like the Yankees putting that advantage near the top of the order.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PACE & SCRIPTATL @ IND
ATL @ IND carries a 40.5 market total
I read this as one of the slate’s better environments for scoring to arrive through sustained offense rather than needing turnovers or broken plays. The expectation is that productive drives will be common enough for both sides to contribute and keep the game moving. It falls apart if early possessions repeatedly stall and the game settles into a slower, field-position-driven rhythm.
COVERAGENO @ LAR
NO's defense surrenders 0.7 fewer yards a snap
NO is at 4.2 yards per play allowed over 1 game; LAR is at 4.9 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
SITUATIONALCHI @ CIN
CHI (1-0) at CIN (1-0)
Chicago's plus-24 is a blowout number, the kind that says the whole operation clicked in week one, not just a couple of splash plays. Cincinnati got to 1-0 as well, but their plus-2 tells you that one was a dogfight decided by inches, not command. That's the 22-point gap in a nutshell — one team dominated, the other survived. Cincinnati does have a home win already banked for this preseason while Chicago is still waiting on its first road look, so the Bengals bring some situational comfort even if the underlying performance was thinner. Still, blowout wins carry more weight than nail-biters, and that favors Chicago's side of this one.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
TRENCHESNO @ LAR
LAR gets +0.9 more yards a carry
NO is at 3.5 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; LAR is at 4.4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
STARTER FORMNYM @ CHW
Christian Scott: 5.87 ERA over his last 3 starts
His walk-and-hit rate climbing from a season-long 1.29 to 1.50 over three starts says more traffic on the bases, not just a couple of mistakes leaving the yard. I'd treat the season ERA as the outlier and play the version of him that's actually shown up his last three times out.
P 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
COACHINGNYG @ MIA
NYG gives away 21 fewer penalty yards per game
NYG is at 45 penalty yards per game over 1 game; MIA is at 66 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
REGRESSIONTB @ BAL
Chandler Simpson: .308 AVG vs .256 xBA
Chandler Simpson’s .308 average is running well above the quality of his contact. I’m treating him as a fade against Baltimore rather than betting on another strong night.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COACHINGCHI @ CIN
CIN's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
CHI is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; CIN is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
QUARTERBACKBUF @ CLE
BUF averages +1.2 yards every time it drops back
BUF is at 6.8 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; CLE is at 5.6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
RED ZONENYG @ MIA
MIA holds red-zone trips to a score 16.7% less often
NYG is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; MIA is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
STARTER FORMOAK @ HOU
Jacob Lopez: 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jacob Lopez is pitching better than his season line, and the strikeouts make this three-start run worth trusting. Houston is getting the sharper version of him tonight.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
COACHINGPHI @ NE
NE's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
PHI is at 1 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; NE is at 2 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
COACHINGATL @ IND
ATL's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down
ATL is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; IND is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
QUARTERBACKDAL @ ARI
Jacoby Brissett starts at quarterback for ARI
His 2025 season line: 3366 passing yards, 64.9% completions, 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 TD-INT over 14 games.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
PACE & SCRIPTPHI @ NE
PHI @ NE carries a 32.5 market total
This setup expects scoring to be available but uneven, with a few meaningful drives separated by stretches where neither offense finishes. The total is low enough that touchdowns are expected to require real work rather than coming in waves. That expectation cracks if early aggression produces quick points or turnovers create multiple short-field chances.
QUARTERBACKPHI @ NE
Jalen Hurts starts at quarterback for PHI
His 2025 season line: 3224 passing yards, 64.8% completions, 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 TD-INT over 16 games.
P Edge side lost; final 21-24
FIRST INNINGWSH @ MIA
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of WSH @ MIA
Pérez is the tougher matchup on paper, but the contact he does allow tends to leave the yard, so Washington's more likely to need one big swing than a rally. Miami's bats have been the coldest thing in this game, but they're catching a starter who's given hitters plenty to work with early — if the streak breaks, that's the more believable path. Either way, I'm not expecting a crooked number in that first frame.
P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)
TRENCHESWSH @ DET
DET gets +0.8 more yards a carry
WSH is at 4.2 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; DET is at 5 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
TRENCHESCHI @ CIN
CHI gets +0.8 more yards a carry
CHI is at 3.9 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; CIN is at 3.1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
COVERAGEATL @ IND
IND gets off the field on third down 7.9% more often
ATL is at 35.7% third downs allowed over 1 game; IND is at 27.8% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/22
Robert Garcia
Texas has him marked eligible today, but that's the earliest the paperwork allows, not a scheduled comeback — a shoulder guy doesn't just walk off a 60-day tag on the printed date. The 3.38 ERA is solid, unspectacular relief work. Nothing here says impact arm, it says a decent bullpen piece who was throwing fine before the shoulder flared. Hold if already rostered. No priority add for anyone else.
QUARTERBACKBUF @ CLE
Josh Allen starts at quarterback for BUF
Allen is winning primarily through efficiency, with his accuracy helping a substantial passing workload stay productive. The interceptions show that ball security is not the cleanest part of the profile, but they have not erased his ability to generate yards. The road test in Cleveland is whether he can preserve that efficiency without giving away possessions.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
QUARTERBACKATL @ IND
Daniel Jones starts at quarterback for IND
Jones is winning through efficiency first, backed by accuracy and dependable ball security. He does not need extreme passing volume when each attempt is producing this much value. At home against a quarterback with a heavier interception burden, the test is staying clean and making Tagovailoa feel pressure to force the issue.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
QUARTERBACKBAL @ MIN
Kyler Murray starts at quarterback for MIN
Murray is winning through completion rate and controlled ball security, not through depth or passing volume. The low return per attempt means he needs sustained execution rather than a few explosive throws. Against Jackson's far more efficient passing profile, the test is whether Murray can keep pace without abandoning that controlled approach.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
QUARTERBACKNO @ LAR
Tyler Shough starts at quarterback for NO
His 2025 season line: 2384 passing yards, 67.6% completions, 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 TD-INT over 11 games.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
QUARTERBACKNO @ LAR
Matthew Stafford starts at quarterback for LAR
His 2025 season line: 4707 passing yards, 65% completions, 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 TD-INT over 17 games.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
QUARTERBACKNYG @ MIA
Jaxson Dart starts at quarterback for NYG
His 2025 season line: 2272 passing yards, 63.7% completions, 6.7 yards per attempt, 15-5 TD-INT over 14 games.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
QUARTERBACKNYG @ MIA
Malik Willis starts at quarterback for MIA
His 2025 season line: 422 passing yards, 85.7% completions, 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 TD-INT over 4 games.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
QUARTERBACKCHI @ CIN
Caleb Williams starts at quarterback for CHI
His 2025 season line: 3942 passing yards, 58.1% completions, 6.94 yards per attempt, 27-7 TD-INT over 17 games.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
QUARTERBACKCHI @ CIN
Joe Burrow starts at quarterback for CIN
His 2025 season line: 1809 passing yards, 66.8% completions, 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 TD-INT over 8 games.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
QUARTERBACKPHI @ NE
Drake Maye starts at quarterback for NE
His 2025 season line: 4394 passing yards, 72% completions, 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 TD-INT over 17 games.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
QUARTERBACKKC @ TB
Baker Mayfield starts at quarterback for TB
His 2025 season line: 3693 passing yards, 63.2% completions, 6.8 yards per attempt, 26-11 TD-INT over 17 games.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
QUARTERBACKDAL @ ARI
Dak Prescott starts at quarterback for DAL
His 2025 season line: 4552 passing yards, 67.3% completions, 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 TD-INT over 17 games.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
AFTER GARYBUF @ CLE
BUF +3 → +2.5
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REGRESSIONPIT @ LAD
Esmerlyn Valdez: .245 AVG vs .199 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez has gotten more production than his contact deserves, with a .245 average sitting well above his .199 expected mark. Against the Dodgers, this is a clear sell-high spot.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
CLOSER WATCHNYM @ CHW
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Taylor leads a genuine 2-save committee with Hudson, and Chicago's a modest -118 favorite on the Mets, so the opportunity could be there. The flag is the arm — 2 outings in the last 3 games and he threw yesterday, the heaviest recent workload on this whole list. Don't bank on him tonight specifically — fatigue stacked on a tight committee is a bad combo for a guaranteed look. Check the pregame report before penciling him in; Hudson's the paper alternative if Taylor's unavailable.
SITUATIONALATL @ IND
ATL (0-1) at IND (0-0-1)
Atlanta's opener wasn't just a loss, it was a 20-point beatdown, and margins like that usually point to real issues rather than a fluke bounce. Indianapolis hasn't lost yet — a tie keeps them unbeaten and says they at least competed evenly in their one look so far. Twenty points is a wide gap in how these two have actually played, and it isn't close. Both arrive with blank home and road ledgers, but a team that hasn't lost is standing on sturdier ground than one that just got run off the field.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
AFTER GARYKC @ TB
KC +6 → +5.5
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REGRESSIONCLE @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .264 AVG vs .218 xBA
Mickey Moniak’s .264 average is difficult to trust with a .218 expected mark underneath it. I’m fading his current production against Cleveland tonight.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
QUARTERBACKATL @ IND
Tua Tagovailoa starts at quarterback for ATL
Tagovailoa is winning through accuracy and touchdown production, but ball security is the obvious strain on the formula. His efficiency is useful rather than overwhelming, so turnovers carry extra weight. Facing an efficient, accurate quarterback in Jones makes this a test of whether Tua can keep Atlanta from losing the possession battle.
P Edge side won; final 34-6
QUARTERBACKBAL @ MIN
Lamar Jackson starts at quarterback for BAL
Jackson is winning through explosive passing efficiency while keeping his touchdown production well ahead of his mistakes. The overall yardage is less important to this profile than the value he creates whenever he throws. In Minnesota, the test is turning that big-play efficiency into separation against a quarterback built around shorter, accurate gains.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
QUARTERBACKWSH @ DET
Jared Goff starts at quarterback for DET
Goff is winning with the full package: volume, efficiency, accuracy, and strong ball security. That combination lets him attack without needing risky throws to create production. At home against Washington, the test is using that efficiency to put pressure on Daniels to leave his controlled style.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
QUARTERBACKWSH @ DET
Jayden Daniels starts at quarterback for WSH
Daniels is winning with controlled aggression and solid ball security more than downfield efficiency. His touchdown-to-interception balance shows he has avoided turning a limited passing sample into reckless football. In Detroit, the test is staying patient without forcing throws if Goff makes this a game that demands points.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
COACHINGATL @ IND
IND gives away 18 fewer penalty yards per game
ATL is at 78 penalty yards per game over 1 game; IND is at 60 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
COVERAGEWSH @ DET
DET's defense surrenders 0.6 fewer yards a snap
WSH is at 4.3 yards per play allowed over 1 game; DET is at 3.7 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
TOMORROWSTL @ PHI
Kyle Leahy: 3.24 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Kyle Leahy’s 3.24 ERA is hiding a much shakier contact profile, with his 4.94 xERA showing where the risk sits. Philadelphia is in a strong position to force that regression tomorrow.
REGRESSIONPIT @ LAD
Jake Mangum: .297 AVG vs .253 xBA
Jake Mangum’s results are running ahead of both his contact and broader offensive profile. Against Los Angeles, I expect some giveback and would rather fade than chase him.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMOAK @ HOU
Hunter Brown vs Zack Gelof: 1-for-11, 6 K
Hunter Brown has owned Zack Gelof, holding him to one hit in 11 at-bats with six strikeouts. Brown can attack the zone confidently tonight and put Gelof away once he gets ahead.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
RED ZONECHI @ CIN
CIN gets inside the 20 1 more time per game
CHI is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 1 game; CIN is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
REGRESSIONSTL @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 6.43 ERA vs 5.08 xERA
A 35.5% hard-hit rate and an 8.4% barrel rate mean hitters are legitimately squaring him up, so this isn't pure bad luck — and a .290 average against is still high even accounting for that contact. At home tonight, I'd expect a start closer to the rough ERA than the still-shaky expected number.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
EXPLOSIVE PLAYSDAL @ ARI
ARI owns a +0.55 yards-per-play gap
DAL is at 5.4 yards per play over 1 game; ARI is at 5.95 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
COVERAGEDAL @ ARI
DAL gets off the field on third down 7.1% more often
DAL is at 50% third downs allowed over 1 game; ARI is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 34-13
COVERAGEKC @ TB
TB's secondary gives up 35 fewer passing yards per game
KC is at 228 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TB is at 193 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Moises Ballesteros
Ballesteros is hitting fourth tonight, but a .204 average and .594 OPS are season-long-roster liabilities. Cleanup placement gives him one more look, not immunity. CUT
TURNOVERSDAL @ ARI
ARI's defense takes the ball away 0.5 more times per game
DAL is at 0 takeaways per game over 1 game; ARI is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
AFTER GARYNO @ LAR
LAR +1.5 → +1.5
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AFTER GARYNYG @ MIA
MIA +3.5 → +3.5
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RED ZONEATL @ IND
IND gets inside the 20 1 more time per game
ATL is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 1 game; IND is at 3 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-6
AFTER GARYWSH @ DET
DET -0.5 → -0.5
FANATICS · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
PARK WEATHERATL @ MIL
Wind blowing out 10 mph at American Family Field tonight
A 10 mph wind blowing out makes a 5.5 total feel vulnerable at American Family Field. Both offenses get a lift, and only a couple of well-struck fly balls could put that number in serious trouble.
P final total 5 vs 5.5 (over lean)
PARK WEATHERCLE @ COL
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Coors Field tonight
Coors Field already amplifies airborne contact, and a 10 mph wind blowing out adds another advantage for both lineups. Even at 11, I see enough potential for repeated scoring to respect the over.
P final total 7 vs 11 (over lean)
BATTER VS ARMDET @ KC
Zach McKinstry vs Michael Wacha: .462
Zach McKinstry has repeatedly found quality contact against Michael Wacha, batting .462 in the matchup. That comfort makes him one of Detroit’s more trustworthy bats tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADOAK @ HOU
Astros are 4-3 vs Athletics this season
About as even as a season series gets, and one shutout in the most recent meeting doesn't overturn a body of work that's been a coin flip all year. Houston hosting again is the more meaningful factor tonight, not the head-to-head number.
SITUATIONALPHI @ NE
PHI (0-1) at NE (0-0-1)
Philadelphia's loss came with a 17-point margin attached, and it happened on the road, where they're now 0-1 for the preseason — no road success banked anywhere yet. New England's still unbeaten with that tie on the books, both overall and at home, meaning their one game so far was competitive rather than lopsided. A 17-point scoring gap on top of Philadelphia's road struggles paints a clearer picture than the raw records alone. New England gets to host a team that's shown a real weakness in its first look, while their own building has yet to see anything resembling a loss.
P Edge side won; final 21-24
HEAD-TO-HEADATL @ MIL
Brewers are 3-2 vs Braves this season
Milwaukee’s 3-2 season-series lead is only a modest edge, but the Brewers’ latest 4-1 win carries some weight. At home tonight, I give Milwaukee a slight matchup lean rather than treating this as one-sided.
TOMORROWTB @ BAL
Nick Martinez: 3.05 ERA vs 4.5 xERA
Nothing in the batted-ball line stands out, yet he's allowing 23 points less than that profile should produce — balls finding gloves instead of grass. Nothing underneath says that holds up heading to Baltimore tomorrow; I'd fade it.
COVERAGENO @ LAR
NO's secondary gives up 32 fewer passing yards per game
NO is at 157 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; LAR is at 189 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ TEX
Jose Siri
Jose Siri has a .765 OPS and .255 average while batting fifth, and tonight he gets struggling Cody Bradford and his 5.98 xERA. That is enough matchup juice for a one-day play. Stream him if you need an outfielder or want exposure to tonight’s matchup.
REGRESSIONMIN @ SD
Dean Kremer: 5.4 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
His average against is nearly identical to what the contact quality says it should be, so this gap is about timing — loud contact landing in the wrong innings, not more of it. Strikeouts and WHIP are both genuinely good; on the road tonight, I'd expect that gap to close from the ERA side down.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
COVERAGENYG @ MIA
NYG's secondary gives up 33 fewer passing yards per game
NYG is at 127 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; MIA is at 160 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
PACE & SCRIPTKC @ TB
TB's defense gives up 4 fewer points per game
KC is at 20 points allowed per game over 1 game; TB is at 16 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
RED ZONEDAL @ ARI
ARI scores on +10% more of its red-zone trips
DAL is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 1 game; ARI is at 60% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ CIN
CHI's defense gives up 4 fewer points per game
CHI is at 10 points allowed per game over 1 game; CIN is at 14 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
COVERAGEBUF @ CLE
BUF gets off the field on third down 6.1% more often
BUF is at 27.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; CLE is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
PASS RUSHKC @ TB
TB's pocket leaks 6 fewer yards per game
KC is at 13 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; TB is at 7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
BULLPENSF @ BOS
San Francisco Giants pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Francisco’s short relievers are reasonably rested, but Adrian Houser’s 80-pitch outing removes their main bulk option. Boston’s best path is to chase the starter early and force the Giants to cover a long middle-inning gap.
AFTER GARYPHI @ NE
NE +1.5 → +1.5
BETMGM · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
SITUATIONALKC @ TB
KC (0-1) at TB (1-0)
Kansas City and Tampa Bay sit on opposite ends of a 16-point swing — Kansas City at minus-8, Tampa at plus-8, both from their only game so far. That's about as clean a split as it gets: one team already controlling the scoreboard, the other still searching for its footing. Tampa's opener showed a team getting things right; Kansas City's showed the opposite. Home and road are both untested for these two, which makes tonight the first real data point beyond the opener, and Tampa brings the far stronger scoring profile into it.
P Edge side won; final 15-16
REGRESSIONCIN @ ARI
Michael Soroka: 2.94 ERA vs 4.08 xERA
He's actually missing bats and limiting hard contact at real rates, so this isn't an empty ERA — but a .233 average against is still riding some friendly bounces on top of that. The strikeout stuff is a real foundation; I'd just watch the ERA drift up as the borderline outs start turning into hits.
P 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
SITUATIONALNO @ LAR
NO converts third downs at a +5.8% clip
NO is at 30.8% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; LAR is at 25% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 0-34
FIRST INNINGLAA @ TEX
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of LAA @ TEX
Fifteen of the last twenty combined first innings here have gone blank, yet the over is still favored at -125 tonight — that gap between price and pattern is the story. Johnson's own first-inning form has been rough, four homers allowed in just 12 innings of work, so I lean toward that pattern snapping rather than continuing. Watch the long ball specifically if a run does score early.
P 1st inning: 1-0 (1 run)
TRENCHESBUF @ CLE
BUF's front holds runners to 21 fewer yards per game
BUF is at 61 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; CLE is at 82 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 31-7
TRENCHESCHI @ CIN
CHI's front holds runners to 21 fewer yards per game
CHI is at 108 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; CIN is at 129 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 9-27
FIRST INNINGTOR @ NYY
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of TOR @ NYY
Weathers is the most hittable arm in this whole set — a 5.25 first-inning ERA and five homers already allowed — and it's Toronto's bats getting that look tonight, not New York's. Cease's half should stay clean; if this breaks, it's Toronto connecting early, not a symmetrically quiet frame.
P 1st inning: 1-0 (1 run)
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Cronenworth’s .224 average and .611 OPS make the drop case easy, but batting second tonight keeps him in a useful lineup spot. I’m giving that placement a little more rope. HOLD
PACE & SCRIPTCHI @ CIN
CIN runs +6 more plays per game
CHI is at 63 offensive plays per game over 1 game; CIN is at 69 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
TRENCHESWSH @ DET
DET's front holds runners to 20 fewer yards per game
WSH is at 117 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; DET is at 97 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
SITUATIONALWSH @ DET
WSH (1-0) at DET (0-1)
Washington's plus-13 came with an actual win attached, and a comfortable one at that by the scoring margin. Detroit's loss, though, only cost them two points — a game that stayed competitive to the end rather than one that got away early. That distinction matters: a two-point defeat and a blowout loss don't carry the same weight even though both show up as a loss in the column. Washington still owns the better overall picture, a real win paired with a real margin, against Detroit's competitive-but-still-a-loss outing, and that's the bigger signal heading into tonight.
P Edge side won; final 13-17
SITUATIONALCHI @ CIN
CIN converts third downs at a +5.6% clip
CHI is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; CIN is at 38.9% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
QUARTERBACKWSH @ DET
WSH averages +0.8 yards every time it drops back
WSH is at 5.3 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; DET is at 4.5 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side lost; final 13-17
TOMORROWTOR @ NYY
José Soriano: 3.23 ERA vs 4.5 xERA
Soriano's getting hit hard — hard-hit rate near 39%, one of the higher marks I'm watching — and his .225 average allowed is running 24 points below what that contact deserves. That's an ERA living on borrowed time, and Yankee Stadium tomorrow isn't where I'd want to be testing it.
REGRESSIONPIT @ LAD
Jared Jones: 4.78 ERA vs 3.67 xERA
Jones is missing bats at a 10.1 K/9 clip with a tidy 1.20 WHIP, so a 4.78 ERA doesn't add up to how he's actually pitching. Hitters aren't even beating the average against him — the damage looks like a couple of bad innings, not a real problem — so I'd bet on this number heading down toward 3.67 before it climbs any higher, even on the road in LA.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
QUARTERBACKNYG @ MIA
NYG's passing game is +22 yards per game
NYG is at 131 team passing yards per game over 1 game; MIA is at 109 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
QUARTERBACKNYG @ MIA
NYG averages +0.8 yards every time it drops back
NYG is at 5.2 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; MIA is at 4.4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Ryan Johnson
No hidden angle here — his xERA is 5.6 and his actual ERA is even worse at 6.41. That's not misfortune, that's a pitcher whose underlying stuff grades out poorly getting treated accordingly by hitters. Tonight's start isn't a bounce-back spot, it's just the same profile playing out one more time. Easy cut. Nothing in these numbers says buy-low, they just say bad.
RUNNING GAMESTL @ PHI
Green light: Philadelphia Phillies run, and Jimmy Crooks has caught just 7%
Philadelphia should be aggressive whenever it puts a runner on against Jimmy Crooks’ 7% caught-stealing rate. The Phillies can manufacture scoring chances tonight without needing to wait for extra-base power.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 0 bases
TRENCHESCHI @ CIN
CIN is +15 rush yards per game
CHI is at 82 rushing yards per game over 1 game; CIN is at 97 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 9-27
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ PHI
Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson is batting third with a .289 average and .844 OPS, and he gets struggling Andrew Painter with a 5.08 xERA tonight. That is exactly the profile I want in a one-day bat. Stream him for average, OPS and a premium lineup spot.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ TEX
Wyatt Langford
Wyatt Langford bats third and faces struggling Ryan Johnson, whose xERA is 5.60. The .769 OPS and heart-of-the-order spot make Langford a clean streaming option tonight. Stream him if you need an outfielder or want exposure to this matchup.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran
Ezequiel Duran brings a .271 average and .768 OPS into the same favorable matchup with struggling Ryan Johnson and his 5.60 xERA. Batting fifth keeps him firmly on the streaming board. Stream him if you need a third baseman, especially when Langford is unavailable.
SITUATIONALBAL @ MIN
BAL (1-0) at MIN (1-0)
Baltimore and Minnesota are both 1-0, but the way they got there looks nothing alike — Baltimore's plus-17 was a comfortable win, Minnesota's plus-3 was a nail-biter. That's a 14-point gap in performance hiding behind two identical records. Baltimore made more of its opportunity, while Minnesota got the result without much cushion to spare. Records match, but the execution behind them doesn't, and that's the more useful signal than the shared 1-0 mark.
P Edge side lost; final 13-3
FANTASY PICKUPSCIN @ ARI
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll has the strongest combination of lineup position and production among these hitters: he bats second with an .834 OPS and faces struggling Rhett Lowder, who owns a 5.14 xERA. Stream him aggressively in any league where he is available.
PACE & SCRIPTNYG @ MIA
NYG is scoring +3 points per game
NYG is at 10 points per game over 1 game; MIA is at 7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 26-3
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Dylan Crews
The cut case is the .633 OPS and .210 average—those numbers are tough to carry all season. But Crews is in tonight’s lineup and batting second, so the opportunity is still strong enough for patience. HOLD
PACE & SCRIPTBAL @ MIN
BAL's defense gives up 3 fewer points per game
BAL is at 7 points allowed per game over 1 game; MIN is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-21.
P Edge side won; final 13-3
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
A .631 OPS with a .219 average puts Perez firmly in the cut conversation. Still, he’s in tonight’s lineup and batting fourth, which is enough lineup placement for me to give him more time. HOLD
BULLPENNYM @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago can handle ordinary short relief, but José Urquidy’s 68-pitch appearance takes away its primary source of bulk innings. If the starter exits early, the Mets should have a real advantage against a bullpen forced to piece together the middle frames.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIN @ SD
Casey Mize
Casey Mize's ERA (3.18) and xERA (3.32) are basically holding hands — that's a pitcher whose results match his process, not one running hot on luck. Add in the 1.07 WHIP and 8.4 K/9, and you've got a command-first arm who isn't walking anybody or getting hit hard. He gets MIN at home, and in deep formats he's the kind of arm that shouldn't still be sitting on waivers. Deep-league add — roster him as a rotation piece, not a one-start streamer.
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Jake Irvin
Irvin's gap is the smallest of the three — 5.32 xERA against a 5.8 ERA — so I'm not selling you a hidden bad-luck story. He's basically pitching to his true level, and that level is below what you want in a season-long rotation spot. Tonight's start doesn't change the profile, it's just the next data point confirming it. Cut in shallow and mid-size leagues; only hold if you're streaming the matchup in a deep format.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/26
Carter Baumler
Second Rangers reliever on this sheet, similar shape — a clean number, 3.18 ERA, attached to a body part that doesn't love a pitching motion. Four days out is close enough to plan around, but I want to see him actually appear on a roster before I trust the date over the injury. Speculative stash in deep or AL-only formats with a free IL spot.
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Tommy White
White’s .248 average is the best of this group, but the .592 OPS is the worst, and batting sixth gives him less appealing placement than the other two. That’s the profile I’m most willing to move on from. CUT
RUNNING GAMEATL @ MIL
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 15%
Milwaukee has a green light against Drake Baldwin’s 15% caught-stealing rate. The Brewers can turn ordinary baserunners into immediate scoring threats and make their speed part of the handicap tonight.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
SITUATIONALNO @ LAR
NO (0-1) at LAR (1-0)
New Orleans' loss came by just four points, a lot different than getting run off the field — that was a competitive outing that simply didn't break their way. The Rams' win carried a plus-8 margin, clean and comfortable on their end. Stack those together and it's a 12-point gap in how each team actually performed, even though New Orleans' record doesn't look catastrophic on paper. The Rams bring in both the better result and the better process behind it, and that's the edge that matters walking into tonight.
P Edge side won; final 0-34
REGRESSIONSTL @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games (.676 win%)
Philadelphia's 23-11 in one-run games is a .676 clip in the kind of games that are basically coin flips. That number finds its way back to .500 more often than not, so I'm not letting it inflate how good this team looks against St. Louis tonight.
RUNNING GAMETOR @ NYY
Green light: New York Yankees run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 15%
The Yankees should keep testing Alejandro Kirk and his 15% caught-stealing rate. Their speed can turn a walk or single into an immediate scoring-position opportunity tonight.
P New York Yankees stole 3 bases
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ SD
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 15%
San Diego should stay aggressive on the bases against Ryan Jeffers and his 15% caught-stealing rate. The Padres can create scoring chances tonight by turning routine traffic into runners in scoring position.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Jeff McNeil
The case for cutting McNeil starts with the .669 season OPS. A .261 average helps, but the overall production hasn't been strong enough to make him untouchable. Still, he's in tonight's lineup and batting second, which keeps him in a favorable spot for opportunities. HOLD
TOMORROWLAA @ TEX
Cal Quantrill: 3.13 ERA vs 4.08 xERA
Quantrill's gap is real but nothing underneath it scares me — hard-hit rate in the mid-30s, barrel rate under 8%, no red flags in the batted-ball mix. This reads like a guy who's caught a few extra breaks rather than one running on fumes, so I'd expect the ERA to drift up slightly at home against the Angels, not collapse.
TOMORROWCLE @ COL
Foster Griffin: 3.18 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Griffin's actually getting hit hard — hard-hit rate over 38%, barrel rate over 9% — and his .231 average allowed is beating an expected .252 almost entirely on luck. That's shaky on its own, and I like it even less heading to Coors tomorrow, the one park where those loud outs start landing instead.
SITUATIONALNYG @ MIA
NYG (0-1) at MIA (0-1)
NYG is 0-1, -3 points on the year, has lost 1 straight in the preseason. MIA is 0-1, -13 points on the year, has lost 1 straight in the preseason. NYG is 0-0 on the road; MIA is 0-0 at home.
P Edge side lost; final 26-3
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/27
Tyler Glasnow
This is the arm on the sheet worth clearing bench space for. A 2.72 ERA is front-of-rotation production when he's healthy, and the club has him targeted five days out. Back injuries are the ones I trust least on any internal calendar — I want him announced for an actual start before I trust the date over the injury. Priority stash. Don't start him off the printed date alone — wait for the announcement.
REGRESSIONSF @ BOS
San Francisco Giants are 11-21 in one-run games (.344 win%)
San Francisco's 11-21 in one-run games, a .344 mark, is dragging the record down more than the actual team. Games this tight even out over time, so I think this club is playing better than its record shows heading into Boston tonight.
TOMORROWSTL @ PHI
Cristopher Sánchez: 2.5 ERA vs 3.34 xERA
This is the one that worries me most on the board. Sánchez is already allowing a higher average than his contact quality should produce, and he's getting hit hard on almost 42% of balls in play — his ERA is only beating the expected number because he's stranding runners, not because he's missing barrels. That's the shakiest kind of luck to be riding, and I'd expect it to snap back fastest, even at home against St. Louis tomorrow.
BATTER VS ARMDET @ KC
Colt Keith vs Michael Wacha: .350
Colt Keith has hit .350 against Michael Wacha and enters tonight in strong form. The combination of familiarity and current timing makes him a Detroit bat I’m willing to back.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 8/28
Lucas Giolito
Elbow is the word that worries me on any arm regardless of the tag length, and this one's only on the 15-day. Six days out on paper is fine, but the number that actually matters is the 5.16 ERA sitting there before the injury. Healthy or not, that line isn't one I'm burning a roster spot to chase. Pass outside the deepest NL-only pools.
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 8/28
Jake Fraley
Same calendar spot as the last one — six days out is a target, not a lock. A groin issue is more of a legs problem than a bat problem, but a .690 OPS says this wasn't a must-roster outfielder before the injury either. Low-priority stash. Corner-outfield depth at best.
RETURN WATCHBOS — return listed 8/28
Roman Anthony
A finger injury on a hitter worries me more than the calendar does — grip and barrel feel don't always come back the day a return date says they will. On top of that, a .675 OPS this year isn't a bat you need to plan around, it's a light season that also happened to include an IL stint. Low-priority stash. Deep leagues or thin outfield pools only.
FANTASY PICKUPSOAK @ HOU
Hunter Brown
The number that jumps off the page for Hunter Brown is 9.4 K/9 — real swing-and-miss stuff. His 3.67 ERA is tracking a shade better than his 3.83 xERA, so the run prevention is earned, not lucky. The 1.3 WHIP is the one blemish, and it's likely why he's still floating in deep pools instead of being owned outright. He's got OAK at home. Deep-league add, especially in strikeout-friendly formats — the WHIP keeps him a notch below must-add, but the K-rate alone is worth the spot.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ SEA
Kade Anderson
Kade Anderson is the buy-low arm of this group: a 3.54 xERA against a 4.01 season ERA is a half-run gap, and splits like that usually close with the ERA coming down, not the xERA going up. We don't have the strikeout or WHIP numbers on him that we do for the others here, so the profile's thinner — but the earned-run gap alone is the reason to grab him now, before results catch up to process. Draws CHC at home. Speculative deep-league stash for teams with a bench spot to burn on the regression bet — not for shallower mixed leagues yet.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/29
Joe Mantiply
A 2.04 ERA is the best number in this whole group, and a knee issue on a reliever worries me a lot less than an arm or a back would. Seven days out is the club's marker, not a guarantee, but this is the one arm here where the ratio makes tracking the wait worthwhile. Stash if your league leans on ERA/WHIP and the roster spot is there.
QUARTERBACKBUF @ CLE
Deshaun Watson starts at quarterback for CLE
10th Season, out of Clemson. No 2026 or 2025 passing line on file yet.
P Edge side lost; final 31-7
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ NYY
Ryan Weathers
Ryan Weathers is the mirror image of Anderson: a 3.56 ERA running way ahead of a 4.2 xERA, a gap of almost two-thirds of a run. The stuff behind it is real — 9.4 K/9, a tidy 1.19 WHIP — so there's a legitimate arm here, but that ERA looks due to drift back up toward the xERA at some point. Hosts TOR. Deep-league add for the strikeouts and WHIP, but it's a roster-for-the-skills move — don't be the one shocked when the ERA corrects.
FIRST INNINGATL @ MIL
ATL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Henderson's been about untouchable early — 0.75 ERA, one homer allowed all year in the first — and that lines up with a Braves lineup that's scored in the first just once in its last ten games. Pérez's first-inning line is nowhere near as clean, so if a run's coming early in Milwaukee tonight, it's coming off him. The Under sitting at -125 tells me the market already knows the risk only really runs one way.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
SITUATIONALDAL @ ARI
DAL (1-0) at ARI (1-1)
DAL is 1-0, +10 points on the year, has won 1 straight in the preseason. ARI is 1-1, +10 points on the year, has won 1 straight in the preseason. DAL is 1-0 on the road; ARI is 0-1 at home.
P Edge side lost; final 34-13
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 9/1
Matt Brash
Furthest out of the group at ten days, and a lat issue on a pitcher is exactly the kind of soft-tissue call that slides — treat that date as an early guess, not a plan. But a 0.54 ERA is the kind of number you don't let walk out the door over a calendar you don't fully trust yet. Stash and be patient. Best ratio in the group, longest runway to match.

Graded results

Games

L
Astros -1.5 -110
MLB · 4-3
W
Royals ML -104
MLB · 1-3
L
Dodgers -1.5 -114
MLB · 3-4
L
Cubs ML +106
MLB · 4-5
W
Guardians ML -132
MLB · 4-3
W
Padres ML -138
MLB · 5-7
L
Red Sox -1.5 -102
MLB · 2-3
L
Diamondbacks -1.5 +112
MLB · 11-5
W
Brewers ML -156
MLB · 1-4
W
Blue Jays ML -104
MLB · 4-3
W
Marlins -1.5 +116
MLB · 2-4
L
Cardinals +1.5 -144
MLB · 3-12
L
Rays ML -126
MLB · 2-3
W
Angels +1.5 -150
MLB · 3-0
W
Mets ML +102
MLB · 10-5

Props

L
Andrew Painter · over
Cardinals @ Phillies · Actual 1
W
Andrew Vaughn · over
Braves @ Brewers · Actual 1
W
Brandon Young · under
Rays @ Orioles · Actual 17
L
Brett Sullivan · over
Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Cardinals @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Byron Buxton · under
Twins @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Cody Bradford · under
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 3
L
Dylan Cease · over
Blue Jays @ Yankees · Actual 8
W
Eury Perez · under
Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 1
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Twins @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Twins @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Gabriel Hughes · over
Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 3
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Reds @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2
L
Gavin Sheets · over
Twins @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Hector Rodriguez · under
Reds @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2
W
Hunter Brown · under
Athletics @ Astros · Actual 4
W
Jake Bauers · over
Braves @ Brewers · Actual 1
W
Jake Irvin · over
Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 4
W
Jonah Heim · under
Athletics @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Moises Ballesteros · under
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 3
L
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Nolan Arenado · over
Reds @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Shane McClanahan · under
Rays @ Orioles · Actual 5
W
Spencer Jones · under
Blue Jays @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Steven Kwan · over
Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Ty France · over
Twins @ Padres · Actual 0