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2026-08-22

The stored Gary board for Sat, Aug 22. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

25
MLB2:10 PM

Braves @ Brewers

First-place clubs meet again in Milwaukee, where the Brewers are trying to carry Friday’s pitching-led victory into the second game of the series. Atlanta brings the stronger season than its recent results suggest, but the immediate contrast is meaningful: Milwaukee is 6-4 over its last 10 while Atlanta is 4-6, and the Brewers have won two straight while the Braves have scored only 2.8 runs per game during that stretch. Milwaukee’s 5.7 runs per game is inflated by the 22-run outlier against Seattle, but this club has still won series against the Dodgers and Mariners before taking Friday’s opener. Logan Henderson is the foundation of the bet. He owns a 2.70 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, compared with Martín Pérez at 3.15 and 1.19, and the setting strengthens that separation: Henderson has a 2.42 ERA at home, while Pérez has a 4.50 ERA on the road. Atlanta starts five left-handed hitters against a pitcher holding lefties to a .180 average and .598 OPS. Pérez deserves respect after limiting Milwaukee to one run over six innings in June, but his 4.50 first-inning ERA stands opposite Henderson’s 0.75. My read is that Milwaukee has the better chance to establish control before this turns into a bullpen contest. I’m taking the moneyline because Atlanta still owns a serious late-inning counterpunch. The Braves’ current bullpen carries a 2.58 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, better than Milwaukee’s 3.46 and 1.14, although recent performance swings toward the Brewers: their relievers have a 0.69 ERA over the last seven games compared with Atlanta’s 4.22. That combination argues for Milwaukee to win without demanding a two-run margin. The Brewers are 44-23 at home, the Braves are 33-31 on the road, and Atlanta is playing game six of a seven-game trip. At -156, Milwaukee to win outright is the ticket that matches the read.

Brewers ML-156
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64%
MLB1:35 PM

Blue Jays @ Yankees

Saturday afternoon in the Bronx brings a rematch of the same starters who worked through a tight game six days ago. The Yankees arrive on five straight wins, while Toronto needs an answer after going 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position Friday. This has the shape of another game decided by a couple of plate appearances, so I want Blue Jays ML -104 rather than asking them to cover 1.5 runs. Dylan Cease gives Toronto the most important edge on this card. His 2.42 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are better than Ryan Weathers’ 3.56 and 1.19, and the contact gap is substantial: Cease has allowed a 4.8% barrel rate and 32.4% hard-hit rate, compared with 8.4% and 41.1% for Weathers. New York starts six left-handed hitters, while Cease has held lefties to a .162 average and .535 OPS. Toronto sends eight right-handed hitters against Weathers, who has allowed a .234 average, .691 OPS and 15 home runs to righties. The direct results support that matchup: New York is 6-for-39 with 19 strikeouts against Cease this season, while Toronto is 19-for-66 with four homers against Weathers. New York owns the bullpen advantage—a 2.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against Toronto’s 3.09 and 1.18—and that five-game winning streak deserves respect. That is precisely why I am staying with the moneyline. Toronto does not need separation; it needs Cease to give it the stronger start and the offense to finish more of the opportunities it created Friday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returns to the confirmed lineup, while Ryan McMahon remains a fresh absence for New York. My read is that Toronto’s starting-pitching and lineup-construction advantages are enough to overcome New York’s edge in the late innings and end the Yankees’ streak.

Blue Jays ML-104
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59%
MLB4:10 PM

Nationals @ Marlins

Saturday afternoon under the closed roof at loanDepot park, Eury Pérez takes the ball with Miami trying to build on Friday’s walk-off, while Jake Irvin attempts to steady Washington in Game 2. The Marlins’ -180 moneyline is outside the permitted range, so I’m taking Miami -1.5 at +116. The price forces a decision about margin, and my read is that today’s starting-pitching separation can become scoreboard separation. Pérez brings a 3.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against Irvin’s 5.80 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Across their last three starts, Pérez has allowed four earned runs in 18 innings; Irvin has allowed 11 in 14⅔. Pérez has also posted a 2.90 ERA at home, compared with Irvin’s 4.60 ERA on the road. The pitch results reinforce that gap: Pérez’s four-seamer carries a .260 xwOBA, with his slider at .239 and sweeper at .220. Irvin’s four-seamer is at .445 and his sinker at .481. Miami does not need to manufacture a huge inning immediately; repeated exposure to those damage-prone pitches should provide scoring opportunities. Yesterday’s 3-2 result is the warning attached to laying a run and a half, but today’s pitching arrangement changes the shape of the game. Miami has scored 4.0 runs per game over its last five, while Washington has scored 2.2. Washington’s relief options also carry meaningful recent work: Clayton Beeter threw 15 pitches Thursday and 28 Friday, Orlando Ribalta worked both days, and Will Dion threw 48 pitches Friday. Miami used five relievers Friday, but Cade Gibson threw 12 pitches and Calvin Faucher threw only two. My bet is that Miami establishes the lead behind Pérez and receives another opportunity to create distance once Irvin departs. At plus money, I trust the strongest measured edge in this matchup enough to demand the extra run.

Marlins -1.5+116
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62%
MLB6:05 PM

Cardinals @ Phillies

Citizens Bank Park gets Game 2 after Friday’s extra-inning thriller, with Philadelphia carrying seven straight wins and St. Louis trying to answer a painful walk-off loss. I’m taking Cardinals +1.5 because my read says this remains a competitive matchup, even if Philadelphia retains the cleaner late-game path. Andrew Painter has a 6.43 ERA this season and a 6.59 ERA at home, with an .853 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters and an .840 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Quinn Mathews owns a 3.00 ERA through nine major-league innings, including seven strikeouts and one earned run in his latest start. His sample is far too small to call him established, but he has allowed only a 24% hard-hit rate across his first 25 balls in play. St. Louis also has enough current production to pressure Painter: the Cardinals have averaged 5.6 runs over their last 10 games compared with Philadelphia’s 5.3, while Jordan Walker is hitting .412 with four homers over his last seven. Philadelphia counters with Alec Bohm hitting .500 over that span, which is another reason I want the extra run instead of demanding an outright Cardinals victory. The strongest Philadelphia advantage arrives after the starters leave. Its bullpen carries a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, compared with a 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for St. Louis. Phillies relievers have allowed four earned runs over their last seven games while the Cardinals have allowed 14. That disparity is enough to keep me away from the St. Louis moneyline, but it also defines why +1.5 is the right ticket: Philadelphia’s best route is surviving the early innings and controlling a close game late. The Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games, the Cardinals are 22-20, and Friday was decided by one run. I’ll pay -144 to keep both a St. Louis win and another narrow Philadelphia escape on my side.

Cardinals +1.5-144
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64%
MLB7:05 PM

Rays @ Orioles

Saturday night at Camden Yards, the division-leading Rays walk into a park where Baltimore has owned this matchup, while the Orioles try to build on Friday’s series-opening win. Baltimore’s 9-4 season-series lead and 5-0 home mark against Tampa Bay deserve respect; I am not waving those results away. My ticket is still Tampa Bay at -126 because tonight’s pitching and lineup configuration gives the Rays the stronger path, and the moneyline lets me back that edge without requiring extra separation. Shane McClanahan brings a 3.25 ERA and 1.12 WHIP against Brandon Young’s 3.52 and 1.35. Neither starter handled this opponent cleanly five days ago: McClanahan allowed three earned runs over 3⅓ innings, while Young surrendered eight hits, four earned runs and three homers in four innings. The larger matchup still favors Tampa Bay. The Rays own a .267 average and .759 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared with Baltimore’s .236 average and .713 OPS against lefties. Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Liam Hicks all carry an OPS of at least .843 against right-handers. Young already saw much of this lineup once, and Tampa Bay’s hitters went 8-for-19 against him. Baltimore’s case is real. Pete Alonso is 24-for-54 with seven homers over his last 15 games, and the Orioles’ recent contact quality has been better than Tampa Bay’s. But if the starters leave this game unresolved, I want the Rays’ bullpen behind my ticket. Tampa Bay’s current relief unit owns a 2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while Baltimore’s is at 4.14 and 1.23. Baltimore has been better over the last seven games—2.82 against Tampa Bay’s 5.72—but Bryan Baker did not pitch Friday, while Andrew Kittredge and Rico Garcia both did. The season-long pitching depth, the stronger offensive split against tonight’s starter and Young’s poor first encounter with these bats are enough for me. The run line asks for an outcome my edge does not require; Rays moneyline is the bet.

Rays ML-126
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60%
MLB7:05 PM

Angels @ Rangers

The roof is closed in Arlington as the Rangers try to build on Friday’s extra-inning win and the Angels look to answer after letting that game escape. I’m taking Los Angeles plus a run and a half because this matchup reads tighter than the price on Texas suggests, and the protection fits that read better than asking the Angels to win outright. Ryan Johnson’s 8.20 road ERA is the obvious danger, but his current work cannot be ignored: four earned runs across 14.1 innings in his last three starts. That includes 4.1 innings of one-run ball against these Rangers eleven days ago. Cody Bradford allowed three runs across seven innings in the corresponding matchup, but his entire 2026 résumé consists of 15.1 innings, and Oakland collected eight hits against him over four innings in his latest start. Bradford may pitch well again, but the available evidence does not establish the kind of starting-pitching separation needed to make Los Angeles an easy fade. Texas has scored 2.3 runs per game over its last ten. The Angels’ 4.6 figure is inflated by their 18-run game in Houston, but even removing that outlier leaves them at 3.1—still better than Texas over the same span. Los Angeles also owns the stronger bullpen numbers: a 3.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP from its current group, compared with 3.87 and 1.34 for Texas. The Rangers have the cleaner defense, and the fresh losses of Wade Meckler and Nolan Schanuel make this far from a comfortable ticket. Still, the Angels lead the season series 8-5, both starters were competitive in the previous meeting, and Friday required ten innings plus an Angels error to separate these clubs. I’m buying the extra run rather than demanding an outright upset; a competitive Angels performance is enough to cash this card.

Angels +1.5-150
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62%
MLB7:10 PM

Athletics @ Astros

Saturday night under the closed roof at Daikin Park, Houston looks to turn Friday’s shutout into control of this series while the Athletics try to stop a five-game slide. My ticket is Astros -1.5 at -110, and it is based on Houston creating separation over nine innings—not simply chasing yesterday’s 4-0 result. Jacob Lopez is the danger to this bet. He has a 3.00 ERA with 20 strikeouts and four walks across his last three starts, while Hunter Brown has a 4.50 ERA with 17 strikeouts and 10 walks in that same span. That keeps this from being a simple starting-pitcher mismatch. The lineup alignment still favors Houston: six right-handed Astros face a pitcher who has allowed right-handed hitters a .280 average, .849 OPS and 13 home runs. Brown has limited right-handed hitters to a .577 OPS, though Oakland’s four left-handed bats receive the better side of his .727 OPS split. Brown’s 3.67 season ERA against Lopez’s 5.22 gives Houston the stronger overall foundation, even with their contrasting recent stretches. The bet turns on what happens after the starters. Houston’s current bullpen owns a 3.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; Oakland’s sits at 4.48 and 1.51. Both relief groups have struggled over the last seven games, but Houston covered four scoreless innings Friday without using Josh Hader, whose ERA is 0.87. Oakland’s bullpen has allowed nine earned runs over its last 9.1 innings, and Drew Rom has thrown 57 pitches across two recent appearances. My read is that Lopez can keep Oakland competitive early, but Houston has the lineup alignment and materially better relief structure to create the late separation this run-line ticket requires.

Astros -1.5-110
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63%
MLB7:10 PM

Mets @ White Sox

Saturday night at Rate Field, Chicago tries to carry Friday’s walk-off energy while New York sends Christian Scott to stop it. The wind is out to center, and this has the feel of a game where one mistake can swing the night. I’m taking Mets ML +102 because the cleanest measurable edge belongs to Scott, and this ticket asks New York only to win outright. Scott enters with a 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 105 strikeouts in 84.2 innings; Luis Castillo has a 4.99 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 115.1 innings. The contact profiles reinforce that difference: Scott has allowed a 6.8% barrel rate and 34.7% hard-hit rate, compared with Castillo’s 9.9% and 41.8%. Scott’s 5.87 ERA over his last three starts, versus Castillo’s 4.60, is a legitimate warning. But Castillo has allowed left-handed hitters a .843 OPS and 14 home runs, and the confirmed Mets lineup includes four left-handed hitters plus switch-hitting Francisco Lindor. Scott has held lefties to a .688 OPS, so Chicago’s left-handed lineup does not create an equivalent vulnerability. Chicago owns the stronger team résumé: 4.8 runs per game against New York’s 4.1, a 38-25 home record against the Mets’ 28-36 road mark, and a bullpen with a 1.35 ERA over its last seven games compared with New York’s 1.85. The Mets’ current bullpen has the better season line, however, at a 3.12 ERA and 1.03 WHIP versus Chicago’s 3.24 and 1.22. That balance keeps my confidence measured. Still, Randal Grichuk and Jake Rogers are sitting after both homered Friday, and Kodai Senga has not worked since August 19. My judgment is that Chicago’s broader résumé is carrying more weight than tonight’s specific pitching matchup deserves. I want the plus-money side with the better starter and the clearer handedness edge. Mets ML +102 is the ticket.

Mets ML+102
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57%
MLB7:15 PM

Giants @ Red Sox

Overcast skies hang above Fenway as the Giants and Red Sox return after Boston’s 6-4 series-opening win. There is volatility on both mounds, but the full nine-inning picture points me toward Boston’s run line at -102. The Red Sox have scored 5.7 runs per game over their last 10; the Giants have scored 3.2. Boston’s last-20 form is 12-8 with 6.3 runs scored per game, while San Francisco is 6-14 with 3.0. Those records guarantee nothing tonight, but they reveal a sustained difference in how consistently these offenses have created runs. Blade Tidwell has made only three starts, so I will not pretend his splits are settled law. Still, Boston can present five hitters from the left side against a pitcher who has allowed a .308 average and .872 OPS to left-handed batters, compared with .152 and .358 against righties. Wilyer Abreu enters with a 1.196 OPS over his last seven games, while Willson Contreras is at 1.355. Patrick Sandoval is the risk on this card—he has allowed 11 earned runs and 10 walks over his last 15 innings—but Tidwell has surrendered nine earned runs and seven walks across the same span. I am not betting on starting-pitcher dominance from either side. I am betting Boston’s advantages after the starters leave. The Red Sox bullpen carries a 3.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP; the Giants’ current group is at 4.06 and 1.50. Their recent results are closer, with respective bullpen ERAs of 2.45 and 2.70 over the last seven games, but Boston still owns the stronger season-long foundation. The defensive separation matters too: the Red Sox have committed 62 errors this season and three over the last seven games, while the Giants have committed 84 and eight. My read is that Boston has more ways to create and preserve separation—better current offense, cleaner defense and the more trustworthy late-inning staff. With the moneyline unavailable at its price, Red Sox -1.5 is the ticket I want.

Red Sox -1.5-102
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63%
MLB7:15 PM

Tigers @ Royals

Saturday night settles over Kauffman Stadium with Kansas City chasing a seventh straight victory and Detroit trying to stop a three-game slide. I’m backing the Royals ML at -104. Kansas City’s streak was built partly against weaker competition, so I’m not betting the streak by itself. I’m betting the way the Royals are currently playing: 4.9 runs scored and 3.5 allowed per game over their last 10, compared with Detroit’s 4.0 scored and 4.8 allowed. Michael Wacha is the hinge of the card. His 3.58 ERA and 1.15 WHIP both better Drew Anderson’s 4.01 and 1.30, and Wacha has a 1.29 ERA with Kansas City winning both of his starts against Detroit this season. Anderson deserves respect after posting a 2.84 ERA across his last three starts, but he has completed five innings only once in his five 2026 starts. That matters because Kansas City’s lineup has recently produced a .411 expected weighted on-base average with a 15.3% whiff rate, while Detroit sits at .355 with a 21.8% whiff rate. The Royals are putting together the better at-bats entering this matchup. There are real reasons this stays near a coin flip. Detroit owns the better season bullpen ERA, 3.32 to 4.55, and Maikel Garcia’s fresh absence removes a productive bat from Kansas City’s lineup. Still, the Royals have committed no errors over their last seven games while Detroit has made five, and Wacha offers the better chance to shorten Kansas City’s exposure to its bullpen. I’m not paying -176 for the Royals’ run-line cushion when the outright win is available at -104. My read is that Kansas City’s current contact, Wacha’s steadier starting profile and its cleaner execution are enough to keep this run going.

Royals ML-104
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61%
MLB7:15 PM

Pirates @ Dodgers

The late-afternoon sun is still high over Dodger Stadium, where Pittsburgh gets another crack at Los Angeles one night after a 10-inning walk-off. This time the matchup turns on Tarik Skubal against Jared Jones, and I’m laying the run and a half with the Dodgers at -114. Skubal brings a 2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 135 strikeouts against 20 walks; Jones stands at 4.78, 1.20 and 72 against 21. Jones owns a 3.84 ERA outside his eight-run Mets start and just held Boston to one earned run over five innings, so this is not a bet built on dismissing him. Skubal is simply the more trustworthy starting point. Tonight’s lineup construction sharpens that advantage. Pittsburgh starts six right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters against Skubal, who has held right-handed batters to a .190 average and .565 OPS. The Pirates have hit .244 with a .692 OPS against left-handed pitching. Los Angeles starts six left-handed hitters against Jones, who has allowed a .234 average and .761 OPS to that side, while the Dodgers have produced a .262 average and .772 OPS against right-handers. Oneil Cruz, the only left-handed starter for Pittsburgh, is a genuine counterweight after hitting two home runs in nine recent at-bats. Andy Pages’ fresh absence also makes Los Angeles thinner, with Alek Thomas carrying a .181 average and .563 OPS. The late innings complete the case. The Dodgers’ current bullpen owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, compared with Pittsburgh’s 3.40 and 1.15. The Pirates’ relief corps has not surrendered an earned run over its last three games, but six relievers worked Friday, Mason Montgomery has thrown 54 pitches across three appearances, and Gregory Soto and Luke Weaver worked two of the last three game days. Tanner Scott did not pitch Friday. Los Angeles also has the cleaner season-long defensive record, with 52 errors against Pittsburgh’s 82. I’m not paying the Dodgers’ -250 moneyline; with advantages in the starting matchup, lineup geometry, bullpen availability and defense, -1.5 at -114 is the ticket.

Dodgers -1.5-114
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64%
MLB7:15 PM

Cubs @ Mariners

Saturday night at T-Mobile Park, a top pitching prospect takes a major-league mound for the first time while Chicago tries to answer a bruising 10-inning loss. Seattle owns Friday’s walk-off momentum, but I’m not paying a favorite’s price for yesterday’s emotion. My ticket is Chicago at plus money because the Cubs have more dependable paths across all nine innings. Kade Anderson earned this opportunity with a 1.06 ERA and 135 strikeouts over 93.1 Double-A innings. That performance deserves respect, but his MLB debut comes against an offense batting .268 with an .805 OPS against left-handed pitching. Seattle, facing another lefty in David Peterson, is batting .216 with a .640 OPS against left-handers. The broader offensive comparison points the same way: Chicago averages 5.1 runs with a .757 OPS, while Seattle averages 3.9 with a .684 OPS. Those numbers do not decide one game, but they tell me which lineup I trust when the uncertainty belongs to a debuting starter. Chicago also sends six right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter into Anderson’s first assignment. Peterson is not a spotless statistical play. His season line includes a 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, but his last three starts produced a 2.76 ERA over 16.1 innings. I only need that steadier recent version before this reaches the bullpens, where Chicago owns the clearer advantage. The Cubs’ current relief arms carry a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season, with a 2.96 ERA over the last seven games; Seattle’s corresponding marks are 3.86, 1.29 and 8.54. Both clubs used four relievers Friday, so I won’t oversell rest. I trust Chicago’s recent relief performance more. T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly setting should keep execution at a premium, and the Cubs have the stronger offense and more reliable finishing group. At +106, I’m backing Chicago to win outright.

Cubs ML+106
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62%
MLB8:10 PM

Guardians @ Rockies

Saturday night at Coors Field brings a volatile pitching matchup, threatening weather and two clubs moving in opposite directions. Cleveland has won two straight, Colorado has dropped four straight, and I’m backing the Guardians to win outright at -132. The starting-pitcher comparison gives Cleveland the first edge. Tanner Bibee owns a 4.01 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, compared with Gabriel Hughes at 6.69 and 1.38. Neither starter enters in ideal form, but the gap remains substantial: Bibee has a 5.50 ERA across his last three starts, while Hughes has a 12.82 ERA over the same span. Cleveland also sends five left-handed hitters and three switch-hitters against Hughes, who has allowed left-handed batters a .286 average and .772 OPS. Colorado presents the same left-heavy challenge to Bibee, but he has held left-handed batters to a .225 average and .731 OPS. My read is that Bibee gives Cleveland the better chance to reach the middle innings without chasing the game. The larger advantage arrives behind the starters. Cleveland’s bullpen carries a 3.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, while Colorado’s current group owns a 5.04 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Over the last seven games, the comparison is 1.52 against 3.49, and Cade Smith was not required during Friday’s 9-1 victory. Cleveland has also committed zero errors over its last seven games; Colorado has committed eight. I considered Cleveland -1.5, but Colorado’s .757 OPS against right-handed pitching, Bibee’s recent form and the volatility of Coors give the Rockies a credible route to keeping this tight. I want the ticket that cashes if Cleveland’s deeper pitching staff simply gets the game home. Guardians moneyline is the bet.

Guardians ML-132
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64%
MLB8:10 PM

Reds @ Diamondbacks

Saturday night at Chase Field, the roof is shut and Arizona returns after delivering a 9-0 opening statement. Michael Soroka gets the ball against Rhett Lowder as the Diamondbacks try to seize control of the series. The moneyline is off my board at -184, but this is more than a narrow win read. I’m laying the run and taking the plus money with Arizona -1.5 at +112. The starting-pitcher gap drives the ticket. Soroka owns a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Lowder enters at 5.17 and 1.49. At Chase Field, Soroka’s ERA is 1.88; Lowder’s road ERA is 7.23. Cincinnati starts six right-handed hitters against a pitcher who has held that side to a .180 average and .505 OPS. Arizona, meanwhile, can present four hitters from the left side against Lowder, who has allowed a .265 average and .823 OPS to left-handed batters. The lineup form reinforces the matchup: Arizona has scored 5.1 runs per game over its last 10, compared with Cincinnati’s 3.6. The counterargument is legitimate: Cincinnati’s .390 expected wOBA over its last three games exceeds Arizona’s .340, and Soroka has made only two starts since a 52-day gap. This is not a blind bet on Friday happening again. But if Soroka leaves before the late innings, Arizona’s current bullpen carries a 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, against Cincinnati’s 3.85 and 1.28. No Diamondbacks reliever worked both of the last two game days, while Julian Garcia did, and Brock Burke has thrown 47 pitches across two appearances. Arizona also has committed 48 errors this season to Cincinnati’s 71. Starting pitching, relief depth and defense all point the same way, and that full-game advantage is enough for me to lay the 1.5.

Diamondbacks -1.5+112
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64%
MLB8:40 PM

Twins @ Padres

Saturday night settles over Petco Park with Minnesota trying to answer Friday’s 6-2 loss and San Diego looking to keep its August push moving. I’m taking the Padres moneyline at -138. This is not a chase of the series opener; it is a bet on San Diego’s stronger full-game structure. I want the Padres to win without requiring a two-run margin in a pitcher-friendly park. Casey Mize supplies the stronger season baseline with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, compared with Dean Kremer’s 5.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Kremer’s 3.12 ERA over his last three starts deserves respect, especially because Mize is at 5.87 in the same window. But Mize followed his eight-run Arizona outing by allowing two earned runs across six innings against Milwaukee and none across six against Cleveland. Kremer now brings a 7.20 road ERA over 25 innings into Petco, with Minnesota going 1-4 in those starts. Minnesota scored five earned runs against Mize in April and owns the better season OPS against right-handers, so this is not a mismatch. My read is simply that Mize is the starter more likely to give his club a stable opening tonight. The advantage becomes more pronounced after the starters. San Diego’s current bullpen owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP; Minnesota’s is at 3.72 and 1.33. The Twins’ relievers have been better over the last seven games, posting a 3.04 ERA against San Diego’s 3.38, but the larger body of work still gives the Padres the late-inning edge. San Diego is 7-3 over its last ten while allowing 2.8 runs per game; Minnesota is 5-5 while allowing 5.1. I expect San Diego to create enough against Kremer and protect it late. Because that protection may come in a tight game, the moneyline is the right ticket—not Padres -1.5.

Padres ML-138
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64%
NFL12:00 PM

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions

Ford Field hosts a preseason matchup priced nearly dead even, with Washington arriving after a 20-7 win and Detroit trying to answer a 16-14 loss. I’m laying the short number with the Lions because this wager is more about which roster gives me the cleaner quarterback path through four quarters than what either scoreboard showed last week. Jared Goff supplies Detroit with the more established starting baseline: 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, eight interceptions and 68.0% completions across 17 games last season. Jayden Daniels played seven games, producing 1,262 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions and a 60.6% completion rate. Those numbers cannot tell us how long either starter plays, so I will not treat them like regular-season projections. The deciding piece comes behind them. Joshua Dobbs is active for Detroit, while Marcus Mariota is unavailable after injuring his knee in Washington’s opener. That is fresh information with real relevance in a preseason game expected to move beyond the starters. Washington’s opening victory is the obvious attraction, but it came against a different opponent under its own rotation conditions. Treating that result as directly comparable to Detroit’s two-point loss would be the kind of shallow preseason handicapping that creates bad tickets. Detroit also owns the small situational advantages of playing at home and having nine days of rest against Washington’s eight, though neither carries the bet alone. My read is that the verified quarterback continuity from Goff to Dobbs outweighs Washington’s more appealing opening result. At a price still below a field goal, I will trust Detroit’s clearer listed quarterback ladder and lay the 1.5 points.

Detroit Lions -0.5+100
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61%
NFL1:00 PM

Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns

Saturday afternoon in Cleveland brings together two teams still sorting through the moving parts of preseason football. The Browns are laying 2.5 at home, but this game is likely to be shaped as much by the reserves as by Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen. Both starting quarterbacks are available, and both teams have an active second option in Shedeur Sanders and Kyle Allen. The trouble for anyone laying points is that neither coaching staff has disclosed how the quarterback snaps will be divided. Cleveland’s home field and intact starting offensive line deserve respect, but those advantages become harder to price once the substitutions begin. Buffalo also brings its primary listed group of skill players into the game, giving its quarterback rotation a complete set of established options. I do not see a verified efficiency or rest advantage strong enough to make Cleveland’s favorite status compelling; both clubs had seven days between games. Buffalo’s opening win and Cleveland’s opening loss create a simple preseason narrative, but I am not betting those results forward. One game does not reveal how the rotations, field position, or late-game personnel will behave here. My read is that the uncertainty favors the team receiving the points: the Bills have enough available quarterback and skill-position depth to remain competitive through multiple lineup changes, while Cleveland has not demonstrated a measurable advantage that warrants laying 2.5. This is not a declaration that Buffalo is the better regular-season team. It is a price decision in a volatile preseason setting, and I want the cushion with the underdog. Give me Buffalo +2.5.

Buffalo Bills +3-105
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58%
NFL1:00 PM

Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings

U.S. Bank Stadium gets the Saturday-afternoon stage as Baltimore and Minnesota meet with one preseason win apiece. The Vikings are favored by 3.5 at home, but this is a full-game preseason bet. Without announced snap allocations or rotation plans, I am reluctant to pay more than a field goal for the home side. The cleanest verified quarterback comparison favors Baltimore. Lamar Jackson’s larger 13-game baseline produced 21 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 62.7 rating, while Kyler Murray recorded six touchdowns, three interceptions and a 47.1 rating across five games. Those are not equal samples, and neither starter is guaranteed to determine the entire game, but the measured baseline still points toward the underdog. Both teams also enter on seven days’ rest. Minnesota has Murray, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson available, while Baltimore has Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. There is no rest disadvantage or clear separation among the listed primary offensive personnel that persuades me to lay this number. Minnesota’s 5-0 run across its last five games is the cleanest visible storyline, compared with Baltimore’s 3-2 mark, but those records describe the road here rather than what happens Saturday. My read is that the price asks bettors to turn Minnesota’s recent results and home field into coverage despite substantial full-game playing-time uncertainty. I will take Baltimore +3.5. I do not need the Ravens to prove they are the better team or even win outright; I need them to remain competitive, and the stronger measured quarterback baseline, equal rest and valuable hook beyond a field goal make Baltimore the side of the price I trust.

Baltimore Ravens +3.5-110
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62%
NFL1:00 PM

Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts

Lucas Oil Stadium gets the Saturday afternoon preseason spotlight, with Indianapolis favored at home against Atlanta. I’m taking the Falcons +3.5 at -120 because this price asks the Colts to turn a limited collection of measurable advantages into a cover beyond a field goal. The strongest verified argument for Indianapolis is Daniel Jones’ 2025-26 baseline. Jones completed 68.0% of his passes with 3,101 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 63.0 rating across 13 games. Tua Tagovailoa completed 67.7% with 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and a 37.5 rating across 14 games. Jones owns the cleaner statistical profile, and that matters when comparing the starting quarterbacks. But this is a preseason spread covering the entire game, not a wager settled exclusively by the starters. My handicap gives the added rotation variance more weight than it would during the regular season, which reduces how aggressively I am willing to price that quarterback difference. Indianapolis also has nine days of rest against Atlanta’s eight, while both teams list intact starting offensive lines. Those facts give the Colts a reasonable case as the favorite, but I do not see enough verified separation to lay 3.5 points at -120. The hook is important in a preseason setting where personnel usage can change the quality of the game from one quarter to the next. Atlanta does not need to prove it is the better team or win outright; it only needs to remain within the number. My read is that the market is charging a little too much for Indianapolis’ advantage at quarterback and at home. I’ll accept the uncertainty, take the points, and put my money on Atlanta +3.5.

Atlanta Falcons +3.5-102
CONF
59%
NFL4:00 PM

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins

Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium, two teams searching for their first preseason win meet with New York installed as the road favorite. I’m taking Miami plus the points because the Giants are being asked to create separation in a game defined by uncertain rotations, and the verified evidence does not give me enough reason to lay more than a field goal. Malik Willis enters with the cleaner measured quarterback profile: 422 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 93.1 rating across four games. Jaxson Dart brings a much larger 14-game sample, but his 15 touchdowns, five interceptions and 57.5 rating do not make Giants -3.5 attractive. Willis’s sample is too small to treat as certainty, yet Miami also has all five listed starting offensive linemen available. New York is missing center John Michael Schmitz Jr., while Malik Nabers, Jalin Hyatt and JuJu Smith-Schuster are unavailable from its receiving group. Miami has real defensive availability concerns of its own, particularly in the secondary, so this is not a case for pretending the Dolphins hold every matchup advantage. The rotation question keeps my confidence measured. Jameis Winston is available behind Dart, while Miami lists Quinn Ewers out, giving New York the clearer confirmed option when the starters leave. But the ticket is not asking whether the Giants can win; it is asking them to win by at least four. My read is that Miami’s home setting, extra day of rest, offensive-line continuity and Willis’s clean measured production provide enough resistance to keep this inside the number. At +3.5, Miami does not have to be the better team for the entire afternoon. In a preseason game where playing time can change the balance quickly, that extra half-point is the part of the price I want to own.

Miami Dolphins +3.5-110
CONF
62%
NFL4:00 PM

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams

Saturday afternoon at SoFi Stadium, the Saints and Rams meet in a preseason game where the rotations could matter as much as the opening lineup. New Orleans is laying 1.5 points on the road, and I’m taking the points with Los Angeles. The strongest verified quarterback baseline belongs to the underdog. Matthew Stafford finished the prior season with 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdowns against eight interceptions, a 65.0% completion rate and a 71.2 rating over 17 games. Tyler Shough’s corresponding line was 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns against six interceptions, a 67.6% completion rate and a 48.8 rating over 11 games. Those numbers do not guarantee anything in August, particularly once Stetson Bennett IV and Spencer Rattler enter the picture. They do, however, make it difficult for me to justify laying points against Los Angeles. My judgment is that the uncertainty surrounding the reserve portions of the game increases the value of taking points rather than giving them. Both teams enter with seven days’ rest, so there is no scheduling imbalance strong enough to move me away from that quarterback comparison. I’m also not turning the Rams’ 4-1 listed recent run or the Saints’ 3-2 mark into a predictive argument; those results came against different opponents under different conditions. This ticket comes down to price. The Rams are at home, have the stronger established quarterback profile, and are still being offered 1.5 points. I do not see enough verified separation to pay the road-favorite premium on New Orleans. The cushion is modest, but in a preseason game shaped by changing personnel, it is worth taking. Rams plus 1.5 at -106 is the bet.

Los Angeles Rams +1.5-105
CONF
59%
NFL7:00 PM

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

Saturday night at Paycor Stadium brings a preseason game that should be decided long after the familiar names leave the stage. With Cincinnati planning to sit most starters and Chicago expected to keep its starters sidelined, this is a four-quarter wager on roster depth, availability, and which team holds up when the rotations reach the bottom of the chart. Chicago owns the strongest visible argument. The Bears produced 430 yards, 22 first downs, and 6.8 yards per play in their opener, while Cincinnati managed 256 yards, 15 first downs, and 3.7 per play. Both defenses generated three takeaways, so Chicago’s superior offensive output cannot simply be dismissed as turnover luck. That is the main threat to this ticket. But those were full-game numbers against different opponents and with different personnel rotations; they are not verified reserve-phase splits. My read is that Chicago’s 34-10 result is the obvious preseason performance the market is asking bettors to buy, and I am unwilling to project that efficiency cleanly into a game with a different usage plan. The Bengals’ path is less glamorous but more dependable for this particular setup. Cincinnati has no listed offensive-line absence, compared with two for Chicago, while the Bengals have one listed defensive-line absence against three for the Bears. Those current availability gaps matter when reserve units are expected to handle most of the night. Cincinnati is also at home with nine days between games, compared with seven for Chicago. None of those factors guarantees anything in a volatile preseason game, but together they give Cincinnati the stronger four-quarter survival profile. At +1.5 and -106, I am taking the points with the home side and betting that Chicago’s impressive opener has been given slightly too much influence in a matchup now governed by depth.

Cincinnati Bengals +2-110
CONF
57%
NFL7:00 PM

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots

Saturday night at Gillette Stadium, two teams that spent the week trading joint-practice reps now put the scoreboard on and turn the game over to their full rosters. My money is on New England +1.5 because the Patriots bring the cleaner availability profile and the strongest verified opponent-specific preparation into this near-even matchup. The starter-phase evidence points toward New England without needing to treat practice like a game. Drake Maye went 15-for-18 during 11-on-11 work against Philadelphia, while A.J. Brown recorded four catches. That controlled sample is not a four-quarter forecast, but it is current evidence against this opponent. The full-season quarterback comparison also leans New England: Maye completed 72.0% with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions over 17 games, compared with Jalen Hurts at 64.8%, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions over 16. Both teams have their listed starting offensive lines intact, so I am not manufacturing a trench advantage. The clearer distinction is availability: Philadelphia has 15 listed active absences against New England’s four, with the Eagles’ losses spread across receivers, defensive backs and linebackers. A preseason ticket must survive the changeover from starters to reserves, and I cannot claim a verified backup-quarterback advantage between Tommy DeVito and Andy Dalton. What I can price is New England entering with fewer missing pieces throughout its rotation, coupled with Mike Vrabel framing this week as a “true litmus test.” Philadelphia’s strongest counter is legitimate: Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Hollywood Brown and Dallas Goedert are available behind an intact offensive line, while New England is missing two cornerbacks. Still, I do not think this short price fully accounts for the four-quarter availability gap. I’ll take the healthier roster, the current matchup-specific work and the 1.5 points at -112, with a measured stake because preseason playing time remains uncertain.

New England Patriots +1.5-110
CONF
61%
NFL7:30 PM

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The lights come on at Raymond James Stadium for the dress-rehearsal game, but this wager will be decided long after the starters leave the stage. I’m taking Kansas City +5.5 at -106 because the Chiefs have the more credible four-quarter path at this number. Tampa Bay’s strongest argument is legitimate. Baker Mayfield is active, Todd Bowles plans to play the starters for 8–15 snaps, and the Buccaneers won their opener 24–16 while resting every offensive and defensive starter. That gives Tampa Bay evidence of capable reserve play before adding its first unit. The problem is the leap required from there: Mayfield’s brief appearance must create an advantage that survives several quarters of substitutions. Tampa Bay’s opening-game quarterback completed 12 of 20 passes for 72 yards, so that victory did not establish dominant quarterback production from the group expected to handle most of tonight. Patrick Mahomes is unavailable, but Kansas City has already operated under that condition. Justin Fields completed all four of his attempts for 41 yards, while the relief quarterback completed 13 of 19 for 98 yards. Those are tiny samples against a different opponent, and I am not treating them as forecasts. They do verify that Kansas City received functional quarterback play across its opening rotation. The danger is Tampa Bay’s active first unit putting the Chiefs behind early, especially at home. Still, only 8–15 planned starter snaps limit how far I am willing to extend that advantage. Once this becomes the reserve evaluation game both coaching staffs expect, I do not see enough verified separation to lay 5.5 points. Kansas City can cover by containing the opening phase and reproducing the competent quarterback operation it has already shown. That is the ticket I trust.

Kansas City Chiefs +6-114
CONF
58%
NFL10:00 PM

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals

Saturday night at State Farm Stadium, the starters will set the table before the reserves take ownership of the game. In this preseason matchup, I’m laying the short number with Arizona because its available rotation and planned playing-time structure give the Cardinals the better four-quarter path. Mike LaFleur intends to use a handful of established players after holding his starters out against Las Vegas, while Dallas continues a preseason-wide policy of minimal starter involvement. Gardner Minshew II gives Arizona continuity at quarterback, and its backup-led group already produced a 27-14 win. Dallas deserves equal credit for a reserve-driven 17-7 victory over Seattle, but Dak Prescott’s listed start matters only for the snaps he actually receives; his regular-season baseline cannot be extended across this game. Arizona also enters at home with nine days of rest compared with seven for Dallas. My read is that the market has compressed those small Arizona advantages too far. The danger is Arizona’s thinner injury-driven rotation, particularly with Jeremiyah Love and Josh Sweat unavailable. Dallas has a legitimate late-game path behind Joe Milton III and a depth group that performed well in its opener. That keeps this from being a high-confidence play. Still, Arizona’s case does not rest entirely on one early series: its reserves have already operated successfully, LaFleur plans to mix in more established personnel, and the Cardinals hold the rest and venue advantages. At -1.5 and -102, that is enough for me to put the ticket on Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals -0.5-105
CONF
58%

Player props

27
MLB · Blue Jays @ Yankees

Dylan Cease

Cease struck out 10 Yankees in 6.1 innings six days ago, including nine of the 15 left-handed batters he faced. New York is sending six lefties at him again, and his slider-changeup combination has produced elite swing-and-miss numbers. With 201 strikeouts in 137.2 innings, nine is a fair target at nearly even money.

OVER 8.5 Strikeouts-111
MLB · Blue Jays @ Yankees

Spencer Jones

Jones is seeing the ball well, but this is a brutal individual matchup. He is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts against Cease, carries a 43% recent whiff rate and will face a pitcher holding left-handed hitters to a .162 average. One mistake can beat this bet, but Cease has several ways to put Jones away.

UNDER 0.5 Hits-115
MLB · Braves @ Brewers

Jake Bauers

Bauers has drawn a walk in 11 of his last 15 games, and this matchup gives that patience room to pay off. Martín Pérez has issued 45 walks in 111.1 innings and has exceeded 1.5 walks in six of his last eight starts. Batting cleanup guarantees Bauers meaningful plate appearances, and the plus-money price is worth taking on a hitter consistently refusing to expand the zone.

OVER 0.5 Walks+152
MLB · Braves @ Brewers

Andrew Vaughn

Vaughn has recorded a single in 10 of his last 15 games and is batting .369 with a 1.072 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He is also 2-for-3 against Pérez, whose sinker-heavy approach creates plenty of balls in play. Vaughn has 12 hits without a home run over his last 15 days, so his current production fits this prop particularly well.

OVER 0.5 Singles-101
MLB · Nationals @ Marlins

Jake Irvin

I’m attacking the weakest part of this pitching matchup. Irvin has allowed 11 earned runs across his last 14 2/3 innings and has gone over this number in five of his last eight starts. His 5.80 ERA is supported by a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-107
MLB · Nationals @ Marlins

Eury Perez

Pérez has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts, including consecutive scoreless outings covering 13 innings. Washington has averaged only 2.2 runs over its last five games, and today’s lineup is without CJ Abrams while also sitting Keibert Ruiz and Andrés Chaparro.

UNDER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+105
MLB HR · Nationals @ Marlins

Griffin Conine

This is my long-price swing. Conine owns a 1.005 OPS with all 14 of his home runs coming in 142 at-bats against right-handed pitching. He has also hit four homers in 40 at-bats over the last 15 days, and batting second should give him multiple opportunities against Irvin.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400
MLB · Cardinals @ Phillies

Andrew Painter

I’ll take plus money against a starter carrying a 6.43 ERA overall and a 7.25 ERA through eight home starts. Painter’s four-seam fastball has produced a .469 xwOBA, while his slider sits at .398, leaving his two most-used pitches vulnerable.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+115
MLB · Cardinals @ Phillies

Bryce Harper

Harper has drawn a walk in 14 of his last 15 games, and his recent 22% chase rate shows that the patience is sustainable. Quinn Mathews has issued three walks in each of his first two major-league starts, needing 192 pitches to cover nine innings. Harper has not hit left-handers especially well this season, but that does not eliminate his plate discipline; it can make Mathews even less willing to challenge him. I only need one cautious plate appearance at a manageable price.

OVER 0.5 Walks-120
MLB · Rays @ Orioles

Shane McClanahan

This is primarily a workload bet. McClanahan threw only 57 pitches over 3⅓ innings in his first start back from the injured list, recording three strikeouts against this same Baltimore lineup.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts-118
MLB · Rays @ Orioles

Brandon Young

Young needs to complete six innings to beat this number, something he has done in only four of his last eight starts. Tampa Bay saw him five days ago and produced eight hits, three homers and four earned runs while forcing him out after four innings and 82 pitches. The Rays carry a .267 average and .759 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Young's 1.35 WHIP creates plenty of opportunities for extended innings. Baltimore has enough available relief depth to make an early move if the Rays threaten a second time through the order.

UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-115
MLB · Angels @ Rangers

Cody Bradford

Bradford has recorded five, one and four strikeouts in his three starts this season, never reaching the six needed to beat this line. His workload has topped 81 pitches only once, and he struck out just one Angel while completing seven innings against them eleven days ago.

UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts-145
MLB · Angels @ Rangers

Moises Ballesteros

Ballesteros has cleared this number in only two of his last fifteen games while batting .122 with two RBIs over that stretch. The matchup adds another concern: he owns a .133 average and .328 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he went 0-for-3 when he faced Bradford eleven days ago.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI-135
MLB · Athletics @ Astros

Hunter Brown

Brown has finished below six strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, including two of his last three. He has also walked 10 batters across those three outings and completed only five innings in each of his last two. That combination creates traffic and elevated pitch counts without guaranteeing enough outs to reach six strikeouts. At +124, I am taking the workload and command concerns to keep him under this number.

UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts+124
MLB · Athletics @ Astros

Jonah Heim

Heim is 3-for-39 over the last 15 days and has recorded a hit in only five of his last 15 games. He will bat from the left side against Brown, and that does not rescue the matchup: Heim owns a .169 average against right-handed pitching, while Brown has held left-handed hitters to a .213 average. Batting seventh with Houston's stronger bullpen waiting behind Brown, I like the 0-for-night at nearly even money.

UNDER 0.5 Hits-103
MLB HR · Guardians @ Rockies

Brett Sullivan

Brett Sullivan at +600 is my favorite long-ball price on the board. All seven of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching, covering only 128 at-bats, and he has gone deep three times in his last 15 days. His August production is up to a .281 average and 1.008 OPS, so this is more than a blind Coors Field swing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600
MLB HR · Guardians @ Rockies

Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe has hit all 14 of his home runs against right-handed pitching while posting a .289 average and .888 OPS in that split. He is also batting .302 with an .867 OPS in August and owns two homers in 20 at-bats against Colorado this season. At +500, I’m getting a middle-of-the-order left-handed bat in an ideal power environment.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500
MLB HR · Twins @ Padres

Ty France

This price is too long for a cleanup hitter with 18 homers and a .891 OPS against right-handed pitching. France is seeing the ball well, producing a 92.7 mph average exit velocity with 10 hard-hit balls recently, and he went deep in the opener. Dean Kremer has allowed six homers in only 80 at-bats against righties, while his sinker has been punished for a .479 xwOBA. Petco takes something away from the power outlook, but not enough to justify +750.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750
MLB HR · Twins @ Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis has six homers in his last 15 games and five barrels among his last 24 balls in play. That surge is supported by a 98.1 mph recent average exit velocity, an 18% whiff rate and disciplined chase numbers. Kremer has surrendered 13 homers in 53.1 innings and owns a fly-ball-heavy profile, giving a locked-in leadoff hitter multiple chances to punish one mistake.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420
MLB HR · Twins @ Padres

Gavin Sheets

Sheets has hit all 16 of his home runs against right-handed pitching, producing that total in 280 at-bats. Kremer has been especially vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing seven homers in 118 at-bats with an .811 OPS, and his four-seam and sinker results leave clear damage lanes. Sheets carries swing-and-miss risk and bats seventh, but +750 pays well beyond the probability created by this specific matchup.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750
MLB HR · Reds @ Diamondbacks

Nolan Arenado

I’m taking Nolan Arenado to homer at +700. He has gone deep four times in his last 15 games and owns 20 home runs this season, so this price is generous for a hitter batting fifth against a vulnerable starter.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700
MLB · Guardians @ Rockies

Gabriel Hughes

Hughes has surrendered 19 earned runs in 13.1 innings across his last three starts, clearing this number each time. Now he faces a Cleveland lineup with five left-handed hitters and three switch-hitters; lefties have batted .286 against him. The Guardians collected 14 hits Friday, and Hughes brings an 11.57 first-inning ERA into Coors with the wind blowing toward right. I’ll take him to allow at least four earned runs at plus money.

OVER 3.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+110
MLB · Guardians @ Rockies

Steven Kwan

Kwan has drawn eight walks over his last four games, walking at least once in all four. His recent 7% whiff rate and 13% chase rate show how well he is controlling the zone, while Hughes has issued six walks across his last three starts. Batting leadoff should give Kwan five plate appearances if Cleveland creates traffic again. Plus money is enough for me to back one walk.

OVER 0.5 Walks+121
MLB · Reds @ Diamondbacks

Hector Rodriguez

Rodriguez is being pushed into the lineup by Michael Toglia’s fresh shoulder injury, but his bat has not shown enough to justify an over price. He has four hits in 34 at-bats this season, has recorded a hit in only four of his last 12 games and owns a 52% chase rate in his recent sample. Batting eighth against a pitcher with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.88 ERA at Chase Field further limits both his matchup and likely plate-appearance volume. Even money is the deciding factor for me.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+100
MLB · Reds @ Diamondbacks

Gabriel Moreno

Moreno has cleared this number in 12 of his last 15 games while batting .345 with a 1.008 OPS over that stretch. The quality supports the results: 13 hard-hit balls and four barrels across his latest 22 balls in play. He is also 2-for-3 against Lowder, whose heavily used sinker has produced a .436 expected wOBA. With Moreno batting third and plus money attached, I’m backing him to get there through either an extra-base hit or another multi-hit night.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115
MLB · Twins @ Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

I’m backing Tatis to score at nearly even money. He has crossed the plate in 11 of his last 15 games while producing a 1.201 OPS and six homers over that stretch. The contact supports the surge: five barrels and a 98.1 mph average exit velocity on his recent balls in play.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored-105
MLB · Twins @ Padres

Byron Buxton

I’m fading Buxton’s combined production while the price remains close to even. He is 3-for-24 over his last 15 days, has not homered during that stretch and has cleared 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs in only four of his last 15 games.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI-115

Hub research

483

Graded results

42

Games

  • L

    Astros -1.5 -110

    MLB · 4-3

  • W

    Royals ML -104

    MLB · 1-3

  • L

    Dodgers -1.5 -114

    MLB · 3-4

  • L

    Cubs ML +106

    MLB · 4-5

  • W

    Guardians ML -132

    MLB · 4-3

  • W

    Padres ML -138

    MLB · 5-7

  • L

    Red Sox -1.5 -102

    MLB · 2-3

  • L

    Diamondbacks -1.5 +112

    MLB · 11-5

  • W

    Brewers ML -156

    MLB · 1-4

  • W

    Blue Jays ML -104

    MLB · 4-3

  • W

    Marlins -1.5 +116

    MLB · 2-4

  • L

    Cardinals +1.5 -144

    MLB · 3-12

  • L

    Rays ML -126

    MLB · 2-3

  • W

    Angels +1.5 -150

    MLB · 3-0

  • W

    Mets ML +102

    MLB · 10-5

Props

  • L

    Andrew Painter · over

    Cardinals @ Phillies · Actual 1

  • W

    Andrew Vaughn · over

    Braves @ Brewers · Actual 1

  • W

    Brandon Young · under

    Rays @ Orioles · Actual 17

  • L

    Brett Sullivan · over

    Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 0

  • L

    Bryce Harper · over

    Cardinals @ Phillies · Actual 0

  • W

    Byron Buxton · under

    Twins @ Padres · Actual 0

  • W

    Cody Bradford · under

    Angels @ Rangers · Actual 3

  • L

    Dylan Cease · over

    Blue Jays @ Yankees · Actual 8

  • W

    Eury Perez · under

    Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 1

  • W

    Fernando Tatis Jr. · over

    Twins @ Padres · Actual 1

  • L

    Fernando Tatis Jr. · over

    Twins @ Padres · Actual 0

  • L

    Gabriel Hughes · over

    Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 3

  • W

    Gabriel Moreno · over

    Reds @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2

  • L

    Gavin Sheets · over

    Twins @ Padres · Actual 0

  • L

    Griffin Conine · over

    Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 0

  • L

    Hector Rodriguez · under

    Reds @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2

  • W

    Hunter Brown · under

    Athletics @ Astros · Actual 4

  • W

    Jake Bauers · over

    Braves @ Brewers · Actual 1

  • W

    Jake Irvin · over

    Nationals @ Marlins · Actual 4

  • W

    Jonah Heim · under

    Athletics @ Astros · Actual 0

  • L

    Moises Ballesteros · under

    Angels @ Rangers · Actual 3

  • L

    Nathaniel Lowe · over

    Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 0

  • W

    Nolan Arenado · over

    Reds @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1

  • L

    Shane McClanahan · under

    Rays @ Orioles · Actual 5

  • W

    Spencer Jones · under

    Blue Jays @ Yankees · Actual 0

  • L

    Steven Kwan · over

    Guardians @ Rockies · Actual 0

  • L

    Ty France · over

    Twins @ Padres · Actual 0