Pirates at Dodgers

STARTER FORM

• Jared Jones: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts

  9.00

  Eighteen hits in twelve innings is a pitcher getting squared up, not a bad-luck stretch, and jumping from the mid-4s to a 9.00 ERA over three starts is too big to be noise. Landing in Dodger Stadium against that lineup is the wrong place to work through it — I'm playing against him.

PLATOON EDGE

• Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot

  1.096

  Valdez moves into the two-hole with a lefty on the mound, maximizing both his plate appearances and his strongest split. I like the setup for his right-handed bat against Skubal.

COOLING OFF

• Spencer Horwitz: .331 OPS in Last 15 Days

  .331

  Horwitz’s .331 OPS comes from a smaller sample, but the decline is still too sharp to call routine noise. Against the Dodgers, I’m fading him rather than betting on an immediate correction.

• Freddie Freeman: .548 OPS in Last 15 Days

  .548

  Freeman’s .548 OPS is a legitimate cold spell, but it has not changed my view of his underlying ability. Back home against Pittsburgh, he is the slumping hitter I’m most willing to back for a response.

BULLPEN

• Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

  12.7 IP

  Stewart and Hurt both worked back-to-back and shouldn't go more than an emergency inning, and six of seven relievers have logged multiple days in this stretch. If the Dodgers starter doesn't give length tonight, that pen is thinner late than the scoreboard will suggest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

• Dodgers are 3-1 vs Pirates this season

  3-1

  A handful of games is one short series' worth of information, and the one loss plus a one-run finale shows it wasn't as clean as the record makes it look. The Dodgers hosting tonight matters more than anything drawn from a sample this small.

TEAM RECORD

• Pirates 2-6 in Jared Jones's last 8 starts

  2-6

  Pittsburgh has dropped six of Jones’s last eight starts, including five in a row. Facing the Dodgers while that pattern is entrenched only increases the concern.

REGRESSION

• Esmerlyn Valdez: .245 AVG vs .199 xBA

  .199

  Esmerlyn Valdez has gotten more production than his contact deserves, with a .245 average sitting well above his .199 expected mark. Against the Dodgers, this is a clear sell-high spot.

• Jake Mangum: .297 AVG vs .253 xBA

  .253

  Jake Mangum’s results are running ahead of both his contact and broader offensive profile. Against Los Angeles, I expect some giveback and would rather fade than chase him.

• Jared Jones: 4.78 ERA vs 3.67 xERA

  3.67

  Jones is missing bats at a 10.1 K/9 clip with a tidy 1.20 WHIP, so a 4.78 ERA doesn't add up to how he's actually pitching. Hitters aren't even beating the average against him — the damage looks like a couple of bad innings, not a real problem — so I'd bet on this number heading down toward 3.67 before it climbs any higher, even on the road in LA.