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2026-08-23

The stored Gary board for Sun, Aug 23. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

6
MLB1:35 PM

Cardinals @ Phillies

Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia goes for the sweep behind Cristopher Sánchez while St. Louis tries to finish an 11-game road trip with something left in the tank. I’m laying 1.5 runs with the Phillies at even money because the strongest edges in my read—starter venue, lineup construction and bullpen depth—all point toward separation rather than another coin-flip finish. Sánchez owns a 1.42 ERA across 15 home starts, with Philadelphia going 13-2 in those games; Leahy has a 3.61 road ERA, with St. Louis going 5-6. Both pitchers enter in form: Sánchez has allowed three earned runs over his last 17 innings, while Leahy has allowed three over 15. Both also handled this opponent recently, Sánchez delivering six scoreless innings and Leahy allowing one run in five. The difference is tonight’s lineup matchup. Leahy has allowed left-handed hitters a .311 average and .850 OPS, and Philadelphia is starting five left-handed bats. Sánchez faces seven right-handed hitters, his weaker side at a .764 OPS allowed, but his record at this park gives me more trust in his half of the matchup. The wager becomes more attractive once the starters leave. Philadelphia’s bullpen carries a 3.47 season ERA and a 2.49 ERA over its last seven games; St. Louis stands at 3.79 for the season and 5.96 over its last seven. Leahy has completed five innings in each of his last three starts, which could expose that Cardinals bridge earlier than Sánchez exposes Philadelphia’s. The Phillies also have Jhoan Duran, Brooks Raley and Orion Kerkering available after none pitched in Saturday’s blowout. Philadelphia has the better starter setting, the lineup handedness to press Leahy and the stronger relief path. At +100, I’ll trust those advantages to carry the run line.

Phillies -1.5+100
CONF
63%
MLB1:35 PM

Rays @ Orioles

Sunday afternoon at Camden Yards, Baltimore goes for the sweep while Tampa Bay tries to stop a three-game slide and finally win at a ballpark where it is 0-6 against the Orioles this season. The first two games were decided by two runs and one run; I’m backing Tampa Bay at even money without requiring a two-run victory. Nick Martinez is the separator. He carries a 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 2.14 road ERA, while Shane Baz enters with a 4.02 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 3.74 home ERA. Both lineups feature five left-handed hitters and a switch-hitter against these right-handed starters, but their platoon results point in opposite directions: Martinez has limited lefties to a .234 average and .672 OPS, while Baz has allowed them a .283 average and .781 OPS. Tampa Bay has also produced a .266 average and .759 OPS against right-handed pitching; Baltimore is at .236 and .719. That is the matchup hinge I trust most. Baltimore’s counterargument deserves respect. The Orioles lead the season series 10-4, have won both games this weekend and own the better recent bullpen form—a 2.38 ERA over the past seven games compared with Tampa Bay’s 6.35. But the deeper bullpen baseline favors the Rays: their current relievers have a 2.39 ERA and 0.96 WHIP for the season, against Baltimore’s 4.08 and 1.22. At +100, I’m not asking Tampa Bay to erase everything Baltimore has accomplished in this matchup. I’m betting that Martinez’s road work, the handedness splits and Tampa Bay’s stronger season-long pitching foundation are enough to win this game once.

Rays ML+100
CONF
58%
MLB1:35 PM

Blue Jays @ Yankees

Sunday afternoon in the Bronx, the series is tied and the rubber game comes down to which starter can hand a manageable game to his bullpen. I’m taking Toronto at plus money because José Soriano brings the steadier workload into this matchup. He owns a 3.23 ERA overall, a 2.96 road ERA and a 2.76 ERA across his last three starts. Carlos Rodón was strong in Baltimore, but that four-inning, 66-pitch appearance was his first start following a 51-day absence. At this price, I want the starter whose current workload requires fewer assumptions. This is not a spotless matchup for Toronto. Rodón has held right-handed hitters to a .182 average and a .570 OPS, and the Blue Jays are starting eight right-handed bats. New York also sends seven lefties against Soriano, with left-handed hitters producing a .687 OPS against him compared with .581 from the right side. But Soriano has permitted only one home-run scoring play across his six most recent starts, an important piece of evidence in a park where one fly ball can change everything. Toronto has also generated 4.2 runs per game over its last ten, while New York has averaged 3.6. The Yankees own the superior bullpen profile, and that is the strongest argument against this ticket. Their current relief group carries a 2.57 ERA, compared with Toronto’s 3.15, while Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers both worked Saturday. I’m still taking the Blue Jays because the moneyline pays for an outright result without asking me to lay a premium on Rodón’s second start back. Toronto has enough verified recent offense, Soriano has been dependable away from home, and my read says this matchup is closer than Yankees -130 implies. Blue Jays ML +120 is the calculated shot.

Blue Jays ML+120
CONF
58%
MLB1:40 PM

Nationals @ Marlins

Sunday afternoon under the closed roof at loanDepot park, Miami goes for the sweep while Washington reaches the final game of a nine-game road trip. This matchup points toward the Marlins winning, but the late-inning picture makes the moneyline a better ticket than asking them to cover 1.5 runs. Jackson Kent makes only his third major-league start carrying a 9.39 ERA, 2.48 WHIP and eight walks through 7.2 innings. He has not completed the fifth inning, and his 50% hard-hit rate leaves little room for more traffic. Miami counters with seven right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter; Otto Lopez has hit .368 with an .889 OPS against lefties, Agustin Ramirez .302 with a .935 OPS and Javier Sanoja .330 with an .876 OPS. Janson Junk is not untouchable—left-handed hitters have produced a .313 average and .832 OPS against him—but his recent work is steadier: a 3.21 ERA across his last three starts and a 3.83 ERA in 10 home starts. Washington has the handedness to challenge him, yet it has scored two runs in each game of this series and only 2.0 per game over its last five, compared with Miami’s 3.4. The hesitation on Miami -1.5 is the bullpen. Josh Ekness, Tyler Zuber and Calvin Faucher all worked Friday and Saturday, while no Washington reliever appeared on both days. Washington’s pen also owns a 2.30 ERA over the last seven games against Miami’s 3.86, creating a real path to another tight finish. But Miami has won both games in this set, leads the season series 10-3 and holds the more trustworthy starting-pitcher position today. At -156, I want the outcome my read actually supports: Miami getting ahead and finding a way home, without demanding separation that this series has not consistently supplied.

Marlins ML-156
CONF
64%
MLB7:00 PM

Braves @ Brewers

Sunday night in Williamsport, the Brewers go for the sweep while the Braves try to salvage the final stop of a seven-game road trip. Milwaukee owns the series; Atlanta sends out the starter with the better recent line. The Brewers won the first two games 2-1 and 4-1, holding Atlanta to one run each night. Over their last 10, Milwaukee is 7-3 while scoring 5.9 and allowing 2.7 runs per game; Atlanta is 3-7 while scoring 2.5 and allowing 3.8. Milwaukee’s average is inflated by that 22-run eruption against Seattle, but even removing it, the Brewers have scored 4.1 per game. Tyler Mahle is why this price remains close—and why I want Milwaukee on the moneyline instead of asking for a two-run victory. Mahle has a 1.45 ERA with 19 strikeouts and three walks over his last three starts, and he threw six scoreless innings against Milwaukee on July 27. Shane Drohan has a 6.06 ERA across his last three starts. But Milwaukee has hit .259 with a .748 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared with Atlanta’s .242 average and .711 OPS against left-handers. William Contreras is 6-for-8 in this series, while Atlanta has received four hits apiece from Michael Harris II and Mauricio Dubón without turning that traffic into enough runs. The bullpen decides it for me. Milwaukee’s relievers have allowed two earned runs over 27.1 innings in the last seven games, while Atlanta’s have allowed six over 20.0. Atlanta owns the stronger full-season relief numbers—a 2.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP against Milwaukee’s 3.46 and 1.14—but Milwaukee enters with the better recent performance and workload distribution. No Brewers reliever worked both of the past two days, while Brent Suter threw 51 pitches across them for Atlanta. At -114, I’m paying a modest price for the team currently producing the cleaner offense, protecting leads more effectively and showing more ways to finish a game. Brewers moneyline.

Brewers ML-114
CONF
62%
NFL8:00 PM

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday night at Nissan Stadium, Tennessee is approaching the opening half like a dress rehearsal, while Seattle arrives with evaluation snaps on the agenda. In a preseason game, that contrast in intent is the heart of the handicap. Tennessee has confirmed that Cam Ward, Tony Pollard, and its starting offensive line will play approximately through halftime. Seattle is resting Sam Darnold and much of its core, turning the first half over to Drew Lock before Jalen Milroe handles the second. This is not a projection about one player exploiting another; it is a verified participation advantage. Tennessee is also at home with 10 days between games, compared with eight for Seattle. Those circumstances were visible when the market set the line, but my read is that Tennessee’s commitment to meaningful first-unit work still carries enough value to lay the points. Seattle’s strongest cover path is also the main risk to this ticket: remain close during Tennessee’s starter phase, then let the game become a reserve-on-reserve contest after halftime. I am not assigning Tennessee an unverified second-half advantage, which keeps this from being a high-confidence play. Still, the Titans do not need to control every phase if their first unit creates the cushion. Seattle’s quarterback rotation is designed around evaluation, while Tennessee’s early plan is built around continuity with Ward and Pollard. I trust that clear difference in intent to matter before the rotations level out. I’m laying the points with Tennessee.

Tennessee Titans -3-107
CONF
58%

Player props

6
MLB · Cardinals @ Phillies

Kyle Leahy

The threshold is the attraction here: I only need Leahy to record two outs in the fifth. He has cleared 13.5 outs in seven of his last eight starts and completed exactly five innings in each of his last three, including five innings of one-run ball against Philadelphia 11 days ago.

OVER 13.5 Pitcher Outs-118
MLB · Cardinals @ Phillies

Cristopher Sanchez

This line requires Sánchez to complete seven innings. He has done that only once in his last eight starts and not once in his last six, when his inning totals were 5.1, 6, 6, 5, 6 and 6. Even strong outings have recently ended near 90 to 100 pitches.

UNDER 18.5 Pitcher Outs-150
MLB · Rays @ Orioles

Nick Martinez

Martinez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 17 of 24 starts, including nine of his 11 road assignments. His 2.14 road ERA matters here, especially with Baltimore starting five left-handed hitters against a pitcher who has limited lefties to a .234 average and .672 OPS.

UNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+109
MLB · Rays @ Orioles

Chandler Simpson

Simpson has recorded a single in 14 of his past 15 games while batting .393 over that span. His game is built perfectly for this market: he owns a .308 season average, has not hit a home run, and his recent 5% whiff rate continually puts his speed into play.

OVER 0.5 Singles-190
MLB · Braves @ Brewers

Shane Drohan

Drohan has allowed at least two earned runs in six of his last eight starts, including 11 across his last three. Atlanta has scored only twice in this series, but the Braves still collected 15 hits and repeatedly created traffic.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-145
MLB · Braves @ Brewers

Andrew Vaughn

Vaughn has recorded a single in 11 of his last 15 games while batting .333 over that stretch. His profile fits this market: he has only five home runs in 233 at-bats, and his recent contact has been firm without turning into much over-the-fence power.

OVER 0.5 Singles-105

Hub research

174

Graded results

11

Games

  • W

    Phillies -1.5 +100

    MLB · 4-6

  • W

    Marlins ML -156

    MLB · 2-6

  • W

    Rays ML +100

    MLB · 3-1

  • L

    Blue Jays ML +120

    MLB · 3-8

  • L

    Brewers ML -114

    MLB · 4-2

Props

  • W

    Andrew Vaughn · over

    Braves @ Brewers · Actual 2

  • W

    Chandler Simpson · over

    Rays @ Orioles · Actual 2

  • L

    Cristopher Sanchez · under

    Cardinals @ Phillies · Actual 20

  • L

    Kyle Leahy · over

    Cardinals @ Phillies · Actual 12

  • W

    Nick Martinez · under

    Rays @ Orioles · Actual 0

  • W

    Shane Drohan · over

    Braves @ Brewers · Actual 2