Sports picks for Monday, August 24, 2026

Rays 6-1 in Drew Rasmussen's last 7 starts

The Rays haven't been winning behind Rasmussen because of one arm — it's the bullpen, the defense, and the lineup all clicking on his turns. Nothing changes about that formula on the road in Detroit tonight.

Dillon Dingler: .201 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Drew Rasmussen

Forty-eight trips to the plate made that .201 look uglier than it is, and Dingler's a right-on-right masher — Rasmussen's exactly the arm to get him right tonight.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

COL have lost 6 straight

Colorado's losses have been close, which tells me the problem is deeper than one bad week — 3-7 over the last ten backs that up. Washington's offense isn't scary enough to be the cure.

P team lost 3-13

PHI have won 9 straight

Nine straight wins with a plus-34 margin is real, not lucky, and Seattle's the perfect team to keep it rolling against given how much they've been scoring lately.

P team lost 2-9

SEA games have gone OVER 6 straight

Seattle's running up over 14 a night and the total actually drops to 6.5 tonight — lower than the number that's already been getting run over. Philly's just as hot, so I don't see a quiet game here.

P final total 11 vs 6.5

Merrill Kelly

A 5.37 ERA is already thin ice for a season-long staff spot, but that's not even the real number here. His xERA sits at 7.23 — nearly two full runs uglier than what's actually landed in the box score. That's not a bad-luck blip, that's a pitcher getting outpitched by his own results, and results like that always catch down to the process eventually. Starting tonight just means the clock on that correction starts ticking again before you've even acted. Cut. Not a bench-and-hope, not a watch-list stash — the gap is too wide and the surface number was never good to begin with.

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.321 OPS in Last 15 Days

Tatis has stacked a 1.321 OPS over basically a month of games on top of 17 homers he already had banked — that's not a hot weekend, that's a real level right now. One extra-base hit clears his 1.5 total bases number tonight, and that's been the easy part lately.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

WSH games have gone UNDER 7 straight

Washington's averaging under six a night and tonight's total sits at eight — that's a big gap for anyone to close. Colorado's bats aren't the ones I'd trust to do it.

P final total 16 vs 8

Alex Bregman: 1.218 OPS in Last 15 Days

Bregman's push to a 1.218 OPS over close to two weeks of everyday at-bats, stacked on 19 homers already this year, reads like a real adjustment rather than a hot stretch. A double or a two-hit night gets him to 1.5 total bases easily at this rate.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Nationals 6-2 in Cade Cavalli's last 8 starts

Washington's found real rhythm on Cavalli's turns through the rotation, and tonight they get to run it back at home instead of on the road. This has been the best version of this team all year on his starts.

Miguel Vargas: 1.283 OPS in Last 15 Days

Vargas was already an .854 OPS hitter walking into this stretch, and now he's carrying 29 homers of pop into a 1.283 OPS heater. 1.5 total bases is a low bar for a bat this hot.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB

Tigers are 4-0 vs Rays this season

Four tries and Tampa Bay still hasn't cracked it against Detroit, and the last meeting wasn't close — a five-run Tigers win. Home field on top of that series lead, I'm on Detroit again tonight.

Red Sox 6-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 8 starts

Boston's whole operation hums when Suarez takes the ball — the bats show up, the bullpen holds, the defense doesn't give anything away. That same version of the Red Sox travels to Miami tonight.

Mariners 6-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 8 starts

Seattle's best baseball shows up on Gilbert's starts — clean defense, a bullpen that locks it down, enough runs to back him. Same group takes the field at home tonight against Philadelphia.

Pirates 6-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 8 starts

For a rough Pittsburgh season, Ashcraft's turns are when it all actually comes together — timely hits, clean innings, a pen that finishes the job. That sharper version of the Pirates is who shows up in San Diego tonight.

Rangers 2-6 in Kumar Rocker's last 8 starts

Something's been broken behind Rocker all year — the bats go quiet or the pen hands games back right after he leaves. That pattern doesn't fix itself just because they're in Chicago tonight.

Agustin Ramirez (bats R) hits 4th against Ranger Suarez (LHP)

A .947 mark against lefties means Ramirez is a completely different hitter with a southpaw out there, and Miami's smart to bat him cleanup for it. Suarez has to survive the top of the order just to get to him.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB

DET have lost 5 straight

Detroit's five-game skid has come by a minus-13 margin, so it's close games slipping away late more than anything else. Tonight's another shot to finally finish one.

P team lost 4-1

Miami Marlins pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Faucher and Petersen both worked the last two days for Miami, and Fairbanks is already up to 45 pitches in this stretch — none of the arms Miami leans on most look fully fresh. If Boston pushes this into the middle innings, it's Ralston and a barely-used Gibson carrying real weight late.

Elly De La Cruz: .537 OPS in Last 15 Days

Sixty plate appearances of this is too long to write off as bad luck — the swing's arriving late. Cincinnati needs him producing, and pressing usually makes it worse. I'm fading him against San Francisco tonight.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot

Moniak's built that .895 against righties over 250-plus at-bats, that's a real track record. Hitting second against Cavalli means he gets extra cracks at it tonight.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Brandon Nimmo: .448 OPS in Last 15 Days

A hitter sitting near .750 for the season doesn't forget how to hit in two weeks — this looks like loud outs finding gloves, not a broken swing. I'd back the season version of Nimmo over the last two weeks tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB

Cubs are 4-1 vs Diamondbacks this season

Chicago's beating Arizona with the bats, not surviving on one big start — an 8-4 win last time out and four wins in five overall. That lineup doesn't need a friendly ballpark to keep producing tonight.

Guardians are 4-1 vs Angels this season

One loss in five, and the most recent meeting was a clean 4-2 win, not a blowout carrying the record — Cleveland's been the better team in the moments that decide close games. Playing on the road tonight doesn't change who's proven it in this matchup.

Otto Lopez: .481 OPS in Last 15 Days

A drop this size over 50 plate appearances is real, but a hitter sitting near .790 for the season usually corrects before it becomes a new normal. I'd fade Lopez until the results start matching the contact again.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games

Ginkel's worked both of the last two days for Arizona and Littell just threw 63 pitches in bulk relief — nine different arms have been used in three games there. A late lead tonight is up for grabs for whichever pen still has someone standing, and the Cubs aren't exactly fresh either.

Corbin Carroll: 1.174 OPS in Last 15 Days

Carroll was already an .842 OPS hitter, and pushing to 1.174 over his last 46 trips is a good bat getting even better, not a fringe player catching a week. 1.5 total bases is well within range for him tonight.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot

Carter's nearly unplayable against lefties, so every ounce of his value runs through nights like this with a righty on the mound. He's not a middle-of-the-order bat, but he can do damage against Urquidy tonight.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB

Troy Johnston (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot

A 300-point swing in his splits says Johnston needs the platoon edge to be dangerous, and against righties he's got it clean. Hitting fifth against Cavalli gives Washington a second bat that can actually do damage.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB

Andruw Monasterio: .431 OPS in Last 15 Days

His season number was never elite to begin with, so this slump cuts closer to a real floor than it would for a proven bat. I want to see the hard contact come back before trusting Monasterio tonight.

Spencer Horwitz: .316 OPS in Last 15 Days

Only 33 plate appearances here — this looks worse than it actually is. A .757 season hitter like Horwitz snaps back sooner than later, and tonight's as good a spot as any.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Jonathan Aranda: .524 OPS in Last 15 Days

Fifty-seven plate appearances is creeping toward a bad month, but the gap to his .779 season mark is too wide to call this the real Aranda. A clean look on the road at Detroit is usually where these stretches start to turn.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Ten arms in three games sounds like trouble, but Ramírez and Yates — the names that matter in the ninth — look to be in fine shape. The real risk is a shaky start forcing Pittsburgh into its fourth and fifth options fast, and that's where San Diego can do damage.

Lawrence Butler: .937 OPS in Last 15 Days

Butler's been running a .937 OPS against a modest .670 season mark, and 11 homers already banked says the power behind this stretch is real. 1.5 total bases is a friendly number for how he's seeing the ball right now.

P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 2 BB

Byron Buxton: .432 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jeffrey Springs

Thirty-one plate appearances is nothing — more variance than a real swing change. Buxton's season numbers sit well above his last two weeks even against lefties, and Springs shouldn't keep him down.

P 3-for-5, 4 TB, 1 BB

Tyler Glasnow

Two clean looks left on the board, nothing already used up — Tuesday in Atlanta, then he closes the week Sunday in Detroit. The 2.61 xERA is the best number in this whole group, and it's not close. The headliner of the week — lock him into every lineup you run.

MIA games have gone UNDER 4 straight

Miami's averaged six runs combined a night during this under run, and tonight's total sits a full run higher at seven. That gap is exactly what's kept the streak alive.

P final total 6 vs 7

Cole Young: .412 OPS in Last 15 Days

This is a modest bat having a rough two weeks, not a strong one gone suddenly cold — the drop isn't as steep as the OPS makes it look. Any bounce-back tonight should be read as ordinary, not a return to some level he hasn't shown much of this year.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

Munetaka Murakami (bats L) hits 2nd against Kumar Rocker (RHP)

Even his weaker side would play everyday in most lineups, which makes what Murakami does against righties look unfair. Batting second against Rocker means that damage shows up early and keeps recurring.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Jake McCarthy: .553 OPS in Last 15 Days

The season track record behind McCarthy is strong enough that this rough stretch reads more like loud outs than any real decline. I'd back him to look closer to his real form tonight.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

José Urquidy

Monday's turn against the Rangers is already decided one way or the other by the time you're reading this, so the start that actually matters is Saturday against the Twins. A 2.72 xERA says he's earned that roster spot. Nothing to do about Monday now. Hold him for Saturday against the Twins.

Max Scherzer: 7.4 ERA vs 4.68 xERA

Scherzer's actual line is getting dragged down by results, not stuff — a hard-hit rate in the low 30s doesn't line up with an ERA over 7. Buy low on him against Kansas City tomorrow; the real level here is mid-4s, not batting practice.

Mickey Moniak: .538 OPS in Last 15 Days

An .836 season number is a strong enough baseline that this stretch reads like turbulence, not decline. I'd expect Moniak to look more like his season self than his last two weeks tonight.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Payton Tolle

Both turns still ahead of him: Tuesday in Miami, then he closes the week Sunday in the Bronx. A 2.68 xERA has him running second in this field, right on Glasnow's heels. Start him with zero hesitation — top of the pack.

Yandy Diaz: 1.047 OPS in Last 15 Days

Sixty plate appearances is the longest runway in this group, and Diaz was already running a strong .841 OPS before this heater started. 1.5 total bases is well within reach for a bat locked in this long.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Brooks Lee: .986 OPS in Last 15 Days

A solid-not-flashy .735 season hitter taking a real step forward to .986 over 49 trips, backed by 20 homers of legitimate pop. 1.5 total bases sets up well for Brooks Lee tonight.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Zack Wheeler

First turn is basically spoken for — he's on the mound today in Seattle. The one you can actually plan around is Saturday in Anaheim. Either way, 2.78 xERA keeps him solidly in the top half of this group. Still a must-start for the week; if today's already gone, ride the Saturday trip to Anaheim.

Kumar Rocker: 7.62 ERA over his last 3 starts

A 7.62 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP over his last three starts means Rocker's putting close to two runners on base an inning right now. That's not the 4.46 pitcher on paper — Chicago's catching him at his worst.

P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K

Jo Adell: .992 OPS in Last 15 Days

A .705 season hitter jumping to a .992 OPS over the last couple weeks is a real signal, and 20 homers on an otherwise modest year says the raw power's always been in there. 1.5 total bases fits a guy who's shown he can stack extra bases once he gets going.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB

Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot

Close to 460 at-bats split both ways says this isn't noise — Dingler's just clearly better against righties, by nearly 250 points of OPS. Cleanup against Rasmussen puts him right in the RBI spot for it.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Heriberto Hernandez (bats R) hits 2nd against Ranger Suarez (LHP)

Hernandez actually has more at-bats against righties, so this isn't a part-time platoon bat — he's an everyday player who gets more dangerous the second a lefty takes the mound. Hitting second means that shows up in the first inning and keeps coming back around.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB

Chase Burns

Today's start is in San Francisco, then he swings to Wrigley on Saturday. Two road parks, two turns, and a 3.01 xERA that sits right in the middle of this set. Start with confidence — Saturday in Chicago is the one still fully live.

Parker Messick

He's in Anaheim today, then comes home Saturday to face Kansas City — one turn already on the board, one still fully yours to plan around. 2.94 xERA is the softest number of the top half, but this is still a Plan-Around arm. Keep him active all week; circle the Saturday home turn.

Cade Smith

Smith's the unquestioned closer here — 33 saves with the next arm in that pen, Festa, sitting on one. No committee noise. Cleveland's laying -164 at home on the Angels, exactly the kind of lopsided number that produces clean ninth-inning chances, and Smith's thrown just once in the team's last three games, so he's fully rested and ready to go get it. Elite hold this week. Rock-solid role, favorable game script, fresh arm — about as safe as save equity gets on tonight's board.

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Chicago White Sox pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

This is the healthiest bullpen on the board tonight — only one arm's worked back-to-back, and the heavy lifting went to length arms built to eat bulk innings. Chicago's got full access to its best matchup relievers whenever the game calls for them.

Reds are 4-2 vs Giants this season

The season series still says Cincinnati, but the last meeting was a 3-0 shutout — San Francisco's pitching did something the other four games in this series didn't. I'd weight that fresh shutout heavier than the overall record tonight.

Zack Wheeler: 5.87 ERA over his last 3 starts

Wheeler's WHIP has jumped from a stingy 1.01 to 1.63 over his last three, and the ERA's more than doubled to 5.87. Seattle's catching a version of him letting a lot more traffic through than that ace-level season line suggests.

P 4 IP, 8 ER, 4 K

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Drew Rasmussen

He's on the bump today in Detroit, then comes home Saturday against San Diego. The 3.12 xERA puts him in the back half of this group, but the two-start slot alone makes this a week worth building around. Roll with him the full week — Saturday's home date is your real lever now.

Kyle Harrison

Both turns are still in front of you — Tuesday on the road in New York, then he closes the week at home against Texas. 3.15 xERA is on the higher end here, but every arm in this group is a plan-your-week piece. Start him both times — full week of runway left.

Zach Neto: .944 OPS in Last 15 Days

Neto's sample here is one of the deepest in the group and the tightest gap off his season line — this is a hitter settling into a new level, not catching a heater. Twenty-two homers backs it up, and his total-bases number tonight is squarely in range.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Paul Skenes

Two road starts bookend the week — Tuesday in San Diego, Sunday in St. Louis — both still ahead of you. 3.17 xERA is the highest number in this set, but that just tells you how strong this whole group is, not a knock on him. Still a lock for both turns — last in this class is still elite.

Wind blowing out 12 mph at Comerica Park tonight

Comerica usually eats fly balls, especially to that deep right-center gap, but 12 out to center erases a chunk of that cushion tonight. Both staffs are working with less room against the long ball than usual, which favors the total climbing to 7.5.

P final total 5 vs 7.5 (over lean)

Merrill Kelly: 7.98 ERA over his last 3 starts

Thirteen earned runs and 15 hits allowed in 14.2 innings over his last three starts — that's more hits than innings pitched. Chicago's catching a version of Kelly getting hit even harder than his shaky 5.37 season ERA already suggested.

P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K

Merrill Kelly: 5.37 ERA vs 7.23 xERA

A 44 percent hard-hit rate and a strikeout rate under 6 per nine means Kelly's process is working against him, not just an ERA getting unlucky. Tonight's as live a spot as any for that 7.23 expected number to start showing up on the scoreboard.

P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K

Carson Whisenhunt

No mirage to point to here — 6.33 xERA and 7.03 ERA are both rough, and the small gap between them means he hasn't even had luck papering over the damage. Unlike the other two names, process and results agree, and they agree he's a problem. Cut. When the peripherals and the results both stink, there's no bounce-back case left to make.

Zach McKinstry (bats L) hits 6th against Drew Rasmussen (RHP)

McKinstry's numbers against righties aren't loud on their own, but next to what he does against lefties, it's clear he needs this look to be useful. Sitting sixth keeps that edge in the lineup deep into the game.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Colorado Rockies pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Frasso's worked both of the last two days for Colorado and Agnos just threw 48 pitches in one outing — the arms this pen leans on most are running thin. A tight game late runs through Herget or Mejia, and that's exactly the spot where Washington's lineup can turn it into a laugher.

George Klassen: 3.74 ERA vs 5.28 xERA

Klassen's strikeouts are real, but a WHIP over 1.60 and above-average hard contact say the ERA's getting help from balls finding gloves instead of grass. Fair test tonight at home of how much of that cushion is still there.

P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K

George Klassen

3.74 looks like a number you build a rotation spot around, and that's exactly the problem — it's lying to you. The peripherals have him at a 5.28 xERA, a run and a half worse than what's shown up so far. That's the classic trap: a shiny ERA propped up by sequencing that hasn't broken yet. Owners who only look at the top-line number will overvalue him right up until the night it flips on them. Cut while the number still looks good. If your league allows trades, shop him first — but if it's cut-or-keep, get out ahead of the regression instead of riding it down.

Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson

Muddiest arm on this list. Taylor 'leads' the CHW pen at 7 saves/10 holds, but Hudson is right on his heels at 5 saves/8 holds and it's tagged a committee within two saves — a real timeshare. Favored -130 at home over Texas, so the save chance should be there if the lead holds, but Taylor's already worked twice in the last three games, including yesterday, which muddies who gets the ball even more. Speculative add at best. The odds like the Sox, but between the committee tag and Taylor working on consecutive days, I'm not trusting this arm for a save tonight — check the bullpen report before first pitch if you're rostering him for saves this week.

Zac Thornton: 3.04 ERA vs 4.85 xERA

The gap between what hitters are actually hitting off Thornton and what the contact quality earns is nearly 30 points — that's balls dying on the track, not a repeatable skill. I'd treat the sub-3.10 ERA with real suspicion against Milwaukee tomorrow.

Robert Garcia

Listed return is today — shoulder rehab on the 60-day is basically out of runway. He's carrying a 3.38 ERA on the year, good enough that you don't sit around once he's activated. STASH — return listed today

Mickey Moniak: .260 AVG vs .217 xBA

That's one of the widest average-versus-expected splits you'll find, a 63-point wOBA gap that doesn't hold up over a full season. I'd expect Moniak's production to slide back toward that low-.200s form, so anything priced off the .260 tonight is priced too rich.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Ryan Vilade (.856 vs LHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight

The two-hole is the real prize for Vilade, extra at-bats in front of the middle of the order. Fraley's groin issue is already ten days old, so this looks like more than a one-night fill-in, and he opens against a lefty in Valdez, right in his wheelhouse.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Robbie Ray: 3.2 ERA vs 4.59 xERA

Ray's the more defensible case in this group — real strikeouts, a tight WHIP, and only a 14-point gap between what he's allowed and what he's earned. Less reason to fade him tonight than most names carrying an ERA this shiny.

P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K

Chicago Cubs pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Thornton's worked both of the last two days for the Cubs, which means the arm they've leaned on most is the one they can least trust tonight. Civale's stretched too after a 49-pitch bulk outing, so this one likely comes down to whichever pen's third option holds up — and Arizona's dealing with the same problem in Ginkel.

Zach McKinstry (.677 vs RHP) replaces Wenceel Perez at RF tonight

Sixth is a run-production spot, and that's the job McKinstry inherits with Perez's orbital issue now at thirteen days and counting. Plenty of runway to keep stacking starts there, and the platoon matchup tilts his way too.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Nick Sogard (.804 vs RHP) replaces Trevor Story at SS tonight

The assignment now is leadoff and shortstop, so Sogard banks the most at-bats on the roster tonight regardless of how the matchup looks on paper. He's one of three new faces in this lineup, which changes how the whole order flows around him.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Drew Rasmussen

Rasmussen's 3.02 ERA is actually a tick better than his 3.12 xERA, so this isn't a mirage — the 0.95 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 are the real driver. Road trip to face DET is a clean, low-risk spot for the peripherals to keep holding up. Streamer for everybody. STREAM tier means he should be added in standard mixed leagues for this DET turn, not just deep formats.

Ranger Suarez: 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts

Suarez's WHIP has crept from 1.18 to 1.35 and his ERA's up to 5.40 over his last three starts — more of a command slip than a stuff problem. Miami's not catching the 3.41 version of him tonight.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Tyler Glasnow

One day left on his clock and a 2.72 ERA waiting to slot into a rotation. Back injury put him on the 60-day, but there's almost no runway left before the listed return. STRONG STASH — elite ERA, 1 day out

Cade Cavalli: 1.35 ERA over his last 3 starts

Three earned runs over 20 innings and a WHIP down to 0.80 — Cavalli's been excellent, not scuffling, his last three times out. Colorado's catching a significant step up from his 3.22 season number tonight.

P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K

Clay Holmes: 2.49 ERA vs 4.05 xERA

Holmes' barrel rate under 5 percent is a real, repeatable skill, but the gap between what he's allowed and what hitters have earned is the widest in this whole group, close to 50 points. Real foundation here, but more regression coming than most names on this list starting tomorrow.

Padres are 2-1 vs Pirates this season

The record and the most recent form are telling the same story — an 8-2 result last time out is a real gap, not a couple of bounces. Nothing since suggests Pittsburgh has closed it.

White Sox are 3-2 vs Rangers this season

Close to a coin flip on paper at 3-2, but Chicago keeps finding a way to win the tight ones — the last meeting was a normal 4-2 game, not a blowout. That kind of edge in a specific matchup is real even when the overall gap is small.

Twins are 2-1 vs Athletics this season

An 11-8 last meeting says this series comes down to who scores more, not who pitches better. If tonight turns into another track meet, Minnesota's already shown it can win one here.

Nationals are 2-1 vs Rockies this season

Small sample at three games, but an 8-0 shutout last time out says Washington's pitching completely took away Colorado's offense. Nothing suggests that's fixed walking into tonight.

Willson Contreras vs Sandy Alcantara: .300

Contreras has already done damage against Alcantara, including one that left the yard, so this has never looked like a matchup he's overmatched in. He's seeing the ball as well as he has all year, and that form usually travels regardless of who's on the mound — good spot to keep it rolling.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Hao-Yu Lee: .281 AVG vs .244 xBA

The average is inflated well past the rest of his production — a 37-point gap on hits against a much tighter wOBA split — so the pop and contact quality are more real than that .281 mark. It's also a small sample, under 250 trips to the plate, which means it can correct in a hurry. Be skeptical of the average tonight, not the bat.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Ceddanne Rafaela: .289 AVG vs .251 xBA

Over 500 plate appearances Rafaela's average has been outrunning his contact quality all season, so this isn't a two-week blip. The underlying numbers say closer to a .250 hitter than a .290 one — I'd rather fade that average tonight than back it.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Keibert Ruiz: .280 AVG vs .243 xBA

Ruiz is showing the same shape as Moniak in this same game — average and wOBA both running well past what the contact quality supports, with the wOBA gap actually the wider of the two. That kind of split normalizes as the sample builds, so I'd expect the drift back toward .243 rather than a hold at .280.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB

Sandy Alcantara: 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts

Alcantara's WHIP has tightened to 1.00 and he's gone six-plus innings every time out over his last three starts, with an ERA of 1.80. Boston's catching him in the middle of his best stretch of the season, well ahead of that 3.46 season line.

P 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K

Carter Baumler

Ribs have him two days from his listed return, 3.18 ERA on the season. Solid, unspectacular — a hold in anything deeper than a shallow mixed league. STASH — deeper leagues

Aroldis Chapman

Chapman still owns this job outright — 29 saves to Erik Miller's 4 saves/12 holds says Miller's the top setup man, not a threat to the ninth. No committee. Boston's favored -136 on the road in Miami, a good number for a save chance, but Chapman's worked twice in the club's last three games including yesterday, so there's some recent mileage on the arm. Hold with eyes open. Job security isn't the issue, and the game script favors a chance — just don't be shocked if he gets a lower-leverage look or a night off given the recent workload. Still rosterable for saves this week.

Bryan Baker

Baker is miles clear of the field — 37 saves to Tyler Wells' 4 saves/14 holds, and that hold-heavy line marks Wells as the setup arm, not competition for the job. No committee. Tampa Bay's favored -134 on the road at Detroit. He's made just one appearance in the team's last three games, so he's not overworked, though that outing did come yesterday. Premium hold. Entrenched closer, favorable road-favorite script, minimal recent workload concern — start him with confidence for saves this week.

Merrill Kelly owns a 6.24 ERA at Chase Field — 4.76 everywhere else

A 6.24 ERA at home against 4.76 everywhere else, over more than half a season of innings, is too wide a gap and too deep a sample to call noise. Lean into the Cubs' lineup and Kelly's hit and run props tonight, not on him pitching like his road self.

P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K

Ryan Feltner

The ugly ERA is the reason he's on the chopping block — 5.97 is a line that gets pitchers dropped in-season without a second look. But his xERA is actually lower, 5.57, meaning the process says he's been a bit unlucky, not disastrous. Cutting on the ERA alone means selling at the bottom instead of waiting for the correction to work in your favor. Hold, don't sell low. The gap points up, not down — 5.57 isn't good, but it's not the 5.97 you're staring at either. Revisit if the number doesn't move.

Kyle Freeland: 6.37 ERA vs 5.14 xERA

Freeland's expected ERA is already ugly at 5.14 with hard contact above 40 percent — this isn't luck catching up to him, it's a pitcher who's genuinely getting hit hard. The floor tomorrow at Washington looks a lot like what's already on tape.

Miami Marlins like to run — Adley Rutschman (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Miami's going to run regardless of who's catching, but this is the one night that carries real risk for them — a catcher throwing out better than a third of attempts makes every stolen-base try live. A runner erased at the wrong moment kills a rally before the middle of the order even sees a pitch, so I'd expect a more station-to-station night than Miami's usual game on the bases.

P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases

Logan Gilbert

Best swing-and-miss stuff of the three at 9.4 K/9 with a 1.01 WHIP. His 3.35 ERA is outrunning the 3.70 xERA a bit, so don't pay for an ace, but he gets PHI at home and the strikeout floor alone plays. DEEP tier — this is a deep-league or AL/NL-only add. In a standard mixed league he's probably already rostered.

Dylan Crews

Crews is still hitting third for Washington, which is the only thing keeping this from being an easy cut. Problem is the results don't match the lineup slot — a .643 OPS and a .214 average are replacement-level numbers wearing a middle-of-the-order jersey. If a team keeps running a bat like that up in a premium spot, I'll ride the at-bats one more turn before I move on. Hold — for now, on the strength of the 3-hole at-bats

Byron Buxton

Buxton's .827 OPS is the best number on this board tonight, and hitting in the 2-hole means more at-bats and more chances to do damage. He draws a struggling Jeffrey Springs (5.08 xERA) — the .251 average is the only thing keeping this from being a max bet. Add across all DEEP leagues — power bat, prime lineup spot, soft matchup.

Keibert Ruiz

A .762 OPS with a .28 average is already a plus line at catcher, and tonight Ruiz gets Ryan Feltner, who's been getting hit hard (5.57 xERA). Catcher is a desert on most wires — this is water. DEEP-league (especially two-catcher) add — grab him now before someone else does.

YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of CHC @ ARI

Both starters have leaked runs in the first all year, not just one side stumbling into a soft matchup — Gausman's first-inning number runs uglier than his overall line, and Kelly's given up three homers in 23 first-inning innings. Whichever way the top of the first goes tonight, it likely sets the tone for the rest of the game.

P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)

Lucas Giolito

Elbow issue, 5.16 ERA on the season, four days from the listed return. Nothing in that line earns a bench spot right now regardless of how close the date is. LOW PRIORITY / DROP

Abimelec Ortiz

Ortiz's .73 OPS and .21 average are the weak links on this board — this is a matchup play, not a talent bet. He's in the 2-hole tonight against that same struggling Feltner (5.57 xERA). DEEP-league streamer for tonight's card only — bet the matchup, not the player.

Roman Anthony

Finger injury, 0.675 OPS on the season, four days out on the listed return. That's replacement-level production — a bench stash only if your league runs deep. DEEP LEAGUES ONLY

San Francisco Giants are 11-23 in one-run games (.324 win%)

San Francisco's 11-23 in one-run games, a .324 mark that's heavy on bad luck more than bad baseball. Their record's probably selling them short relative to how they're actually playing.

Jake Fraley

Groin injury, 0.690 OPS on the year, same four-day runway as the rest of this cluster. Nothing about that line forces a roster move. DEEP LEAGUES ONLY

Philadelphia Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games (.676 win%)

Philadelphia's sitting at 23-11 in one-run games, a .676 clip that tends to even back out toward .500 over time. Their overall record might be a little ahead of their true level right now.

Aaron Nola: 5.12 ERA vs 4.17 xERA

Nola's 5.12 is worse than he deserves, but this isn't a clean buy-low — hitters are squaring him up at a 40-plus percent hard-hit clip, so part of this is real decline. There's still bad luck stacked on top too, with the average against running nearly 30 points hotter than the contact earns. I'd expect some give-back toward that 4.17 in Seattle tomorrow, just not the sharp bounce-back the ERA alone teases.

Michael King: 3.38 ERA vs 4.35 xERA

King's overperformance is a modest one, backed by real skill — a hard-hit rate in the low 30s and only a 22-point gap between what he's allowed and what he's earned. Little urgency to fade him off the ERA alone at home against Pittsburgh tomorrow.

WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10

Washington's first-inning silence is on the bats, not the matchups — they've gone quiet regardless of who's on the mound. Feltner's been leaky early all year, a .297 average and five homers allowed in the first alone, exactly the kind of arm a cold lineup usually wakes up against. Cavalli's been the opposite for Washington, so if this inning breaks at all, I like the Nationals finally cashing in over Colorado solving him.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Joe Mantiply

2.04 ERA is the best ratio number in this whole group. Knee has him five days from the listed return, but that's a stash for ERA/WHIP help the moment he's back. STRONG STASH — best ratio on the board

Anthony Kay: 3.96 ERA vs 4.85 xERA

Kay's average allowed is basically in line with his contact quality, so this isn't a batted-ball mirage — he's surviving on sequencing and working out of traffic. That's a stickier skill than most regression plays lean on, so I'm not expecting a hard fall back to 4.85 at home against Texas tomorrow, more a gradual leak in that direction.

Evan Carter

Carter's the clearest cut of the three. A .618 OPS and a .196 average would be ugly anywhere, but Texas has him hitting sixth now, which means the lineup card already made this call before I did. Nothing here — not the average, not the slot — gives you a reason to keep the spot occupied. Cut

Ranger Suarez

WHIP (1.18) and K/9 (9) are the softest marks of the group, but the 3.42 ERA is beating the 3.62 xERA, so the results are a shade better than the process suggests. Road matchup vs MIA is playable, not a smash spot. DEEP tier only — bench/streaming candidate in deeper formats. Standard mixed rosters have better waiver options tonight.

Adrian Houser: 4.08 ERA vs 4.98 xERA

A 42.2% hard-hit rate matters more here than the modest 11-point gap on average against — the results have held up a little better than the contact quality deserves. Cincinnati tomorrow is another lineup that can square him up at that same rate, and there's not much cushion left before the runs catch up to the process.

Detroit Tigers are 12-22 in one-run games (.353 win%)

A 12-22 mark in one-run games is mostly noise that evens out toward .500 over time, not a real skill deficiency. Detroit's overall record is probably selling this team short right now, so if the number's still pricing them off that, there's value hiding underneath.

Andrew Alvarez: 3.6 ERA vs 4.44 xERA

Alvarez gets hit hard at times but rarely squared up — a barrel rate under 6 percent keeps the damage capped even when contact is loud. The average against is close to what it should be, so there's not much hidden luck to unwind here. Smallest gap on the board, and I'm not expecting much movement either way against Colorado tomorrow.

Kody Clemens

Clemens brings a .759 OPS and .238 average out of the 5-hole tonight against Jeffrey Springs, who's been struggling to a 5.08 xERA. It's a middle-of-the-order spot against a pitcher who's giving up runs. DEEP-league streaming add for tonight's matchup vs. Springs.

Chase Meidroth (.679 vs RHP) replaces Tanner Murray at 2B tonight

This one isn't fresh — Murray's shoulder has kept him out 108 days, so Meidroth's already banked three-plus months of everyday reps at second. Seventh against a righty isn't his best platoon look, but that much volume says the job is his regardless of tonight's matchup.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Jarren Duran (.645 vs RHP) replaces Roman Anthony at LF tonight

Duran takes left field and the seven-hole tonight, and it's backed by real track record against right-handers, not just a hot week. Anthony's finger only hit the report yesterday, so this is fresh, but Duran's stepping into real everyday volume — one of three new faces in a lineup that looks different top to bottom.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Anthony Seigler (.785 vs RHP) replaces Isiah Kiner-Falefa at 2B tonight

Second base is Seigler's tonight, and even hitting ninth that spot turns the order right back over to the top. IKF's forearm just popped up on the report today, so this only opened up, but Seigler brings a real platoon edge against right-handers to a spot that usually doesn't have one.

P 1-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB

Zach McKinstry

McKinstry's .224 average is technically the best of this group, but a .637 OPS out of the six-hole for Detroit isn't production, it's just a body in the lineup. Tonight's start doesn't change the shape of the season, and there's nothing in that empty batting line to justify the roster spot. Cut

Jakob Marsee

A .655 OPS and a .211 average is replacement-level production — that's a line you can find on your waiver wire without giving up a roster spot for it. Batting 6th and drawing tonight's start just means the big-league club hasn't buried him yet, not that there's a turnaround coming; nothing in the season line suggests this is a slump about to break. No matchup edge, no trend, just a sub-.700 OPS bat taking up a bench spot you could use. Cut — even with tonight's start, a .655 OPS bat isn't worth the roster spot in a season-long format.

TB have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Tampa's cold spell isn't about facing nasty pitching — Valdez has been hittable early all season, a .317 average and three homers allowed in the first inning alone, and they still haven't cashed in against that kind of arm. Rasmussen's been stingy to open games for Tampa, so Detroit isn't getting an easy first inning either. If a run sneaks in early tonight, I'd rather bet on Tampa finally connecting than Detroit solving Rasmussen.

P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st

Matt Brash

0.54 ERA is the headline number here, but the lat injury puts him furthest out of anyone on this list at eight days. Worth the spot if you've got IL room to spare and the patience to wait. STASH — elite ERA, longest wait

TEX have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Texas being cold early doesn't mean this first inning stays quiet — it just means the damage is more likely to run through Rocker than the Rangers' own bats. An 8.59 ERA, .340 average against, and four homers already in 22 innings is a pitcher playing from behind before he's finished his first trip through the order. That's the real case for the Over, not anything Texas needs to fix.

P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st

Robbie Ray's ERA jumps to 4.20 at Petco Park (3 games there)

Three starts is too thin to call an identity, and the average against actually undercuts the inflated ERA — hitters aren't finding barrels off him at Petco, which points to walks and one bad inning bunching up rather than the park getting the better of him. He's running a full run lower everywhere else this season, and that's the version I'd trust tonight against San Diego.

P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K