Sports picks for Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Chicago White Sox pen: 19.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Chicago's pen is running on fumes — Schweitzer, Richards, and Brazobán have all gone twice in this stretch, and Taylor needed 29 pitches just to get one out in his lone look. If the White Sox starter can't give length, Texas gets to tee off on the back end of this pen.

Nate Furman

Zero. That's the average. An OPS of .200 means he's reaching base at a below-replacement clip with not one hit to show for it all season. He's in there tonight batting 6th, but a lineup slot doesn't save a bat that's been a black hole since Opening Day — no average, no pop, nothing to hang a hold on. Cut. Not a stash, not a bench hold — off the roster today.

Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot

Batting Foscue leadoff against Kay isn't about protecting him, it's about buying him extra looks at a lefty he's actually crushed before the White Sox pen ever gets involved. Smart card for squeezing out the one clean edge in that lineup.

P 2-for-4, 6 TB

Red Sox 7-1 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts

Boston just wins when Tolle takes the ball, 7-1 in his last eight — offense scoring early, pen locking down the rest. That formula doesn't need a home crowd, and I'll ride it again tonight in Miami.

Diamondbacks 7-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts

Arizona's 7-1 behind Pfaadt isn't a coincidence — that's a lineup and pen that both show up specifically on his turns. Same script, same building tonight against the Cubs, and home is where this group is most dangerous.

Pete Alonso: 1.395 OPS in Last 15 Days

Alonso was never punchless — thirty bombs on the year — so a 1.395 OPS over 54 plate appearances plays as a real heater, not soft-arm padding. One extra-base hit gets him to 1.5 total bases, and I like his odds of getting there tonight.

P 4-for-4, 8 TB

Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot

Coby Mayo turns into a completely different hitter once a lefty's on the mound, and Liberatore starting means he gets that look from the first pitch instead of a matchup swap late. Cleaning up against him puts those at-bats right where Baltimore wants them, with runners more likely to be on.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Walbert Urena (RHP), batting 5th

Lowe's overall line doesn't show it, but he's mashed right-handers most of the year, and hitting fifth against Urena tonight turns that matchup into runs instead of empty innings.

P 1-for-6, 1 TB

Dodgers 6-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 7 starts

Dodgers are 6-1 when Glasnow starts, and that kind of consistency says the lineup's locked in and the pen trusted to protect whatever edge he leaves them. Real confidence, and they're carrying it into Atlanta tonight.

Dillon Dingler: .263 OPS in Last 15 Days

That's too steep a fall off too strong a season line to call bad luck — Dingler's swing has lost its rhythm somewhere in the last two weeks. I'd rather lean on the pitching than bet on that bat flipping a switch cold tonight.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

San Diego Padres pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games

Matsui's unavailable after back-to-backs, and Morejon, Hart, and Miller have all already logged two outings apiece — San Diego's pen is thin exactly where it needs to be deep. Pittsburgh's best path is just hanging around into the seventh and eighth.

DET have lost 6 straight

Six straight losses with a run differential that ugly means the rotation and lineup have been bad together, not one bullpen letting a game slip. Being home against Tampa Bay doesn't hand Detroit anything on its own tonight.

P team won 1-4

SEA games have gone OVER 6 straight

Six straight games blowing past the total isn't a couple of extra-inning flukes — that's nearly double the number some nights, a real scoring pattern. Tonight's line hasn't caught up to it, and Philadelphia riding its own nine-game streak in only adds to it.

P final total 5 vs 8

LAD have won 6 straight

The Dodgers' six-game streak is solid rather than overwhelming, about two and a half runs a game, but the last ten show they were rolling before it even started. Atlanta's a real step up from home, but they bring more than six games of form into it.

P team lost 3-4

COL have lost 7 straight

Losing by nearly five runs a game for seven straight is a beatdown streak, not a string of close ones, and the last ten confirm it's the level Colorado's playing at right now. Taking that to Washington only raises the degree of difficulty.

P team won 3-1

KC have won 8 straight

Kansas City's been winning these by close to three runs a game for eight straight — that's control, not survival — and I like that cushion carrying into a true road test in Toronto.

P team won 5-3

PHI have won 9 straight

Nine straight wins by almost four runs a game is domination, not a hot spike, and that kind of separation walking into a Seattle park that's been running hot itself sets up for more of the same.

P team lost 1-4

Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Chris Bassitt (RHP)

Alec Burleson's numbers against right-handers are on a different level than what he shows against lefties, and hitting third against Bassitt tonight gets him that matchup early with traffic already on the bases. That's the version of Burleson St. Louis builds its lineup around.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Rays 6-2 in Casey Legumina's last 8 starts

Casey Legumina's given Tampa Bay quality innings and enough support to close the door — 6-2 in his last eight starts. He's back on the mound tonight in Detroit, and nothing about that assignment looks like the spot where it stops working.

Guardians are 5-1 vs Angels this season

Cleveland's taken five of six from the Angels, and that finale was a real 4-2 grind, not a laugher skewing the sample. Whoever LA sends out tonight, the Guardians have earned the benefit of the doubt.

Blue Jays 2-6 in Max Scherzer's last 8 starts

Toronto's 2-6 when Scherzer starts isn't just bad luck, it's a team struggling to produce or protect leads on his turns. Hosting Kansas City tonight, I'd think twice before backing the Jays.

Miguel Vargas: 1.283 OPS in Last 15 Days

Vargas was already in the middle of a breakout season, so climbing this far above an .854 baseline over 46 trips reads like separation, not soft arms. Twenty-nine homers of pop, I like his 1.5 total bases tonight.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB

Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot

Harper against a quality righty from the three-hole is about as good as matchups get — deep track record, not a hot streak — and he's seeing Kirby early before Seattle's pen can change the look.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Nationals 2-6 in Andrew Alvarez's last 8 starts

Washington's 2-6 behind Alvarez says something breaks down on his days, offense or pen. Same pattern lines up again tonight at home against Colorado — I'm skeptical of the Nats rather than chasing them.

Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 5th against Seth Lugo (RHP)

Jesus Sanchez is a clearly better hitter against right-handers than lefties, and batting fifth against Seth Lugo keeps him in that favorable look all game without pulling him off the top of the order. That's the matchup Toronto wants out of that spot tonight.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB

Agustin Ramirez (bats R) hits 3rd against Payton Tolle (LHP)

Agustin Ramirez does his best damage against lefties, and Miami's got him hitting third right into Payton Tolle tonight instead of burying that matchup at the bottom of the order. That's exactly where they want him swinging with a southpaw on the mound.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Giants 2-6 in Adrian Houser's last 8 starts

Giants are 2-6 behind Houser, and results like that point to an offense or pen that isn't showing up on his nights. That's the form they bring into tonight against the Reds — I'm leaning away from San Francisco.

Alex Bregman: 1.167 OPS in Last 15 Days

Fifty plate appearances well above an already-solid season line points to a veteran finding another gear, not padding stats. Nineteen bombs on the year, I'm comfortable with his 1.5 total bases tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Lawrence Butler: 1.068 OPS in Last 15 Days

Butler's running well above his season line over 51 plate appearances, too big a sample to write off. He's more contact than power most nights, but a 0.5 total bases mark barely asks anything — one clean single gets it done.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Cubs are 5-1 vs Diamondbacks this season

Cubs are 5-1 against Arizona this year and that finale was a 7-0 beatdown, not a nail-biter. The Diamondbacks have to actually solve something tonight, not just hope the numbers regress.

Brandon Nimmo: .383 OPS in Last 15 Days

Fifty-plus plate appearances this cold says the swing's actually been off, not just snakebit — and Nimmo's season line was only average to start, so there's less cushion here. I'm treating tonight as one to avoid banking on him.

P 1-for-5, 2 TB

Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot

Luis Garcia Jr. does his damage against right-handers, and hitting third against a righty tonight gets him that look early with the lineup stacked behind him. That's the setup Houston wants whenever a right-hander takes the mound against them.

P 4-for-5, 8 TB

Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Jackson Jobe (RHP)

Liam Hicks against right-handers is a different hitter than Hicks against lefties, and Tampa Bay's got him cleaning up right into Jackson Jobe tonight — that's the middle-of-the-order matchup they want, with his at-bats likely to come with runners on.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Alec Bohm: 1.091 OPS in Last 15 Days

Bohm's season number was middling, which makes this 45-plate-appearance surge stand out even more — looks like an adjustment that's sticking. Fourteen homers of pop behind it, I like his 1.5 total bases tonight.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB

Yordan Alvarez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot

Yordan Alvarez against right-handers is about as good as a platoon matchup gets in this sport, and hitting second tonight means he's up in the first inning and coming back up with runners on all night. This is the exact matchup Houston hunts for whenever a right-hander starts against them.

P 3-for-5, 5 TB

Corey Seager: 1.088 OPS in Last 15 Days

Seager didn't need to get hot to be good, so pushing this far above an already strong season line over 48 trips is a good hitter getting hotter. Thirteen homers, I'm comfortable with his 1.5 total bases tonight.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.161 OPS in Last 15 Days

Seventeen homers already banked shows the power was never the question — stacking this stretch on an .814 season mark says Tatis is pulling further ahead of the league. I like his 1.5 total bases tonight.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB

Christian Moore

A .156 average and a .364 OPS out of the 6-hole. The playing time is real — he's in there again tonight — but real playing time producing nothing is exactly the trap that clogs a season-long bench. There's no average and no juice in that OPS to say this turns. Cut. Everyday at-bats don't matter if the line stays this empty.

Spencer Horwitz: .327 OPS in Last 15 Days

Thinner two-week sample than the rest of this group, and the season line underneath is strong enough that the swing probably hasn't gone anywhere. Of everyone cooling off tonight, he's the one I'd least be surprised to see snap out of it.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

George Kirby: 8.31 ERA over his last 3 starts

Hitters aren't sneaking bloops through against Kirby, they're squaring him up start after start — that's diminished life on the stuff, not one bad night mixed in. Philly shouldn't need great swings to do damage tonight.

P 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K

Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Seth Lugo (RHP)

Nathan Lukes is a much better hitter against right-handers, and hitting second against Seth Lugo tonight puts him at the plate early and often for Toronto all game long.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB

Tigers are 4-1 vs Rays this season

Detroit's still won four of five in this series, but Tampa handled them 4-1 clean in the finale — proof the Rays have a blueprint here regardless of the record. Tonight's the next data point, not a rerun of those four Tigers wins.

Randy Dobnak: 1.58 ERA vs 4.75 xERA

Dobnak's getting hit plenty — 40.8% hard-hit against just a 3.4% barrel rate — it's just not finding grass, and a .254 average against a .292 expected mark says gloves have been bailing him out. Toronto's bats won't keep missing barrels at this rate; this is as clean a fade as it gets next time out.

Otto Lopez: .481 OPS in Last 15 Days

Mildest fade in the group, and over a full two weeks that's a tell — the swing hasn't collapsed, results have just run behind the contact. I'd expect this one to correct itself before it drags on much longer tonight.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Kyle Tucker: .340 OPS in Last 15 Days

This isn't an isolated slump, it's stacked on a season line that was already underwater, and when both point the same direction that usually means a real approach issue. I'd stay cautious on him in Atlanta tonight rather than bet on a quick fix.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Jake McCarthy: .506 OPS in Last 15 Days

Best season number of anyone cooling off in this group, so a dip this size reads more like variance catching up than a broken swing. I'd still trust the bat over the slump tonight.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Corbin Carroll: 1.174 OPS in Last 15 Days

Carroll was already one of the better bats in the league at .842 for the season, and pushing this much higher over 46 trips is a strong year compounding, not garbage against weak arms. I like his 1.5 total bases tonight.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Willson Contreras

Gary's Take This price is too long for Contreras’ power in this matchup. He has 26 homers overall and 19 in 311 at-bats against right-handed pitching, accompanied by a .908 OPS.

P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 2 TB

Max Scherzer: 7.4 ERA vs 4.68 xERA

Scherzer's contact numbers are actually clean — 32.2% hard-hit is one of the better marks on this board — so the ugly ERA is traffic and sequencing, not stuff. Kansas City tonight is a good spot to expect the results to catch up to a mid-4s pitcher, not a near-8 one.

P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Brandyn Garcia / Kevin Ginkel

Garcia's out front 4-2 in saves, but 14 holds next to just 4 saves tells you this has been more setup-man usage than a clean ninth-inning gig, and with Ginkel within 2 it's an honest committee, not a clear alpha. Arizona's tight favorites at -108 at home against the Cubs, so there should be a save chance on the table tonight. Garcia's thrown once in the last three games and is fully rested, so workload isn't holding him back if the Snakes get the call. Live spot for Garcia if you already have him, since the price says a ninth-inning chance is in play. But this is a real timeshare — if you're hunting saves this week, you want Ginkel rostered too, not just the guy nominally in front.

Matt Olson: .581 OPS in Last 15 Days

Even in a rough stretch this is the smallest step back in the group, coming off the best season number here by a wide margin. A bat this good doesn't stay cold long, and hosting Atlanta tonight is as good a spot as any for it to turn.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Brice Turang: .400 OPS in Last 15 Days

Shortest look of the group, and that's exactly where bad luck does the most damage without anything actually being wrong. Season number says the skill's intact — I'd expect the results to start catching up tonight.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

Jeremy Pena: .489 OPS in Last 15 Days

A season line in the .800s says this bat's been legit all year, so a two-week dip like this is results lagging the contact. I wouldn't be looking to fade him tonight in New York.

P 2-for-5, 5 TB

A.J. Ewing: .368 OPS in Last 15 Days

This was already a light bat before the slide, so it reads like a fringe hitter getting fringier rather than a star losing his timing. I'd keep expectations low for him tonight against the Mets.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Jackson Holliday: .437 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Matthew Liberatore

Jackson Holliday's .437 OPS over his last 15 days comes from the biggest sample in this group, and his numbers against lefties barely differ from his season line — there's no hidden strength waiting to bail him out. Liberatore doesn't change the equation tonight, this is just who he's been all year.

P 3-for-6, 3 TB

Elly De La Cruz: .569 OPS in Last 15 Days

Elly De La Cruz's cold stretch has now run sixty plate appearances, deeper than a typical slump, so it carries more weight than most of these dips — but he's coming off an .814 season pace, so the talent hasn't gone anywhere. Call tonight an even matchup, not a bounce-back lock.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB

Mickey Moniak: .538 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Alvarez

Mickey Moniak's dip is the mildest fade in this whole group, a .538 OPS over two weeks on a thin 65 at-bat track record against lefties. Andrew Alvarez tonight is an awkward matchup, not a lost cause.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Christian Walker: .401 OPS in Last 15 Days

Walker's season track record was only average to begin with, so there's a lot less cushion to explain this away as puddle-deep luck — this reads like real lost thump. Of the two Houston bats cooling off, he's the one I'd fade tonight.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

Jackson Jobe

Jobe's carrying a shiny 4.50 ERA, but a 6.33 xERA is screaming that it's fake -- that's nearly two full runs between what's happened and what should be happening. Peripherals that far underwater always catch up to the surface number eventually, and I don't want to be holding the bag when it does. He takes the ball tonight; let that be someone else's problem after tonight. Cut -- the mirage is too big to trust.

Jo Adell: 1.036 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jo Adell already has twenty homers this year, so his 1.036 OPS over the last two weeks is real power showing up, not a batting-average blip. One and a half total bases is a very catchable number for him right now — he's a tougher out than his season line suggests.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB, 1 BB

Luke Keaschall: 1.040 OPS in Last 15 Days

Luke Keaschall's only got eight homers, so his 1.040 OPS the last 15 days reads more like barrel control and gap power than a sudden power binge — tonight's path to total bases likely runs through doubles, not a homer. Still, a stretch this long says he's seeing the ball better than he has all year, and one and a half total bases is catchable even without the power ceiling.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Tyler Glasnow

Best number in the group at 2.61 xERA, and the whole week's still on the table — road trip to Atlanta today, then Detroit to close it out Sunday. Nothing's been used yet. Top arm on the board — start him both nights.

Adrian Houser: 0.56 ERA over his last 3 starts

Houser's stringing together near-shutout innings and missing more bats along the way, and it's held for three straight turns, not one shutdown outing carrying the rest. Nothing in this stretch says that changes tonight.

P 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K

Payton Tolle

2.68 xERA, right behind Glasnow, and same deal — full two-start week untouched. Miami today, then a Sunday date in the Bronx against the Yankees. Start both starts without blinking.

Wind blowing out 13 mph at Oracle Park tonight

Oracle usually eats fly balls alive, but thirteen miles an hour blowing out to center flips that tonight for both lineups. 7.5 feels light for the extra carry that wind's about to add.

P final total 4 vs 7.5 (over lean)

CJ Abrams

Gary's Take I’m buying the price on Abrams, not chasing Washington’s 13-run outburst. He has 29 home runs this season, including 23 against right-handed pitching, and batting first gives him the best chance in this lineup to see five plate appearances.

P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB

Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games

Clarke's out after back-to-backs and Ginkel's gone twice too — Arizona's cycled through nearly its whole pen without one arm stepping up for real length. The Cubs want this bullpen turning over arm after arm tonight, not settling into trusted innings.

Parker Messick

Monday's start at the Angels already happened — I'm not working with a line from it, just the 2.92 xERA he's carried all year. What's left is Saturday at home against the Royals, so this is a one-start week from here. Start Saturday; don't bank on a start that's already gone.

Next NFL slate · SEP 9

BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.

Cardinals are 2-0 vs Orioles this season

Two games, two Cardinals wins including a comfortable 7-2 — but that's a two-game sample, not a trend. St. Louis being home tonight matters more here than the head-to-head mark does.

Next college slate · AUG 29

BDL lists 6 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 6 kickoff times are confirmed.

Twins are 3-1 vs Athletics this season

That 9-6 finale was a shootout, not a shutdown — Minnesota won by outscoring Oakland, not dominating on the mound, and that kind of win doesn't always repeat. The 3-1 mark is real, but tonight probably comes down to whichever staff settles in first.

Nationals are 3-1 vs Rockies this season

A 13-3 finale on top of a 3-1 mark says Washington's been clearly the better team here, not just winning close ones. Colorado needs to actually change something tonight, not hope for tighter margins.

Aaron Nola: 2.12 ERA over his last 3 starts

The swing-and-miss is back for Nola in a way it wasn't for most of the season, and it's held across three straight starts. Seattle's lineup is facing a pitcher missing bats at a completely different level than his year-long line suggests.

P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K

San Diego Padres like to run — Henry Davis (47% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Davis throws out nearly half the runners who test him, so San Diego isn't getting free bases tonight — every attempt is a real coin flip that can snuff out an inning as easily as extend one.

P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases

Zack Wheeler

Same situation — Monday in Seattle is done and I've got no result to hand you. The 3.03 xERA arm has one turn left, Saturday on the road against the Angels. Start the Saturday start; treat the rest of the week as a one-start ask.

Brandon Pfaadt vs Seiya Suzuki: 0-for-11, 5 K

Suzuki simply can't find the barrel against Pfaadt — 0-for-11 with five strikeouts isn't a couple of unlucky at-bats. I like the under on his hits tonight, and Pfaadt's strikeout total holds appeal too.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Kyle Harrison

3.15 xERA and a clean two-start week — Mets today, then home against the Rangers Sunday. Nothing's been played yet on this one. Start both — full week, plan-around arm.

San Francisco Giants pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Walker's only had to get loose once this stretch, so the ninth is fine if the Giants get there with a lead. Getting there is the issue — Smith and Hentges have both gone twice on real pitch counts — so Cincinnati's angle is doing damage before Walker's even in the game.

Paul Skenes

Closes the group at 3.17 xERA with both starts still ahead — San Diego today, St. Louis on Sunday. Same full-week shape as the other Tuesday arms. Start him both nights.

Chase Burns

Monday in San Francisco is in the past, no line on it here. Burns brings a 3.17 xERA into Saturday's road start at the Cubs — that's the only one left to plan around. Start Saturday only; the Monday start is already spent.

Drew Rasmussen

Monday's trip to Detroit already came and went. Rasmussen's 3.15 xERA gets one more look this week — Saturday at home against the Padres. Start him Saturday; this is a single-start play now, not two.

YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of PHI @ SEA

Kirby's been leaking runs early all year — a .289 average and four homers allowed before the first inning's even over — and Nola's given up seven first-inning bombs of his own despite the tidier ERA. I'm expecting traffic again in the top of this one, with both pens stirring earlier than either side wants.

P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)

Zac Thornton: 3.04 ERA vs 4.85 xERA

Thornton's WHIP is fine, but a 40.9% hard-hit rate and a .240 average against a .269 expected mark says defense and sequencing are propping this up, not his stuff. Milwaukee getting a crack at him tonight, I'd trust the contact numbers over the shiny ERA.

P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Liam Hicks

Hicks catching and hitting cleanup against Jackson Jobe is the exact spot you're looking for — a .817 OPS backstop getting the softest matchup of his week. Jobe's sitting at a 6.33 xERA and getting hit, and Tampa's got Hicks in the 4-hole to take advantage. Catcher is a dead position in most formats, so a bat this good in a matchup this soft doesn't sit on waivers long. Add everywhere tonight — this is a top-of-the-wire catcher stream, shallow or deep.

Chandler Simpson: .312 AVG vs .257 xBA

Chandler Simpson's hitting .312 against a quality-of-contact read closer to .257, and that gap has held up over 497 plate appearances — a full season of results running ahead of the actual contact, not a two-week hot streak. Price tonight off the lower number, because that's the one with more room to move.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Toronto Blue Jays pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Little and Woods Richardson have both already gone twice on real pitch counts, so Toronto's not eager to lean on either again so soon. Rogers and Varland are fresher but largely untested — Kansas City wants to make its money in the middle relief that's already carrying the load.

Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.61 ERA vs 4.59 xERA

Rodriguez's contact numbers are middle-of-the-road — 8% barrels, 34.7% hard-hit — yet he's allowing nearly 30 points below his expected average. That gap doesn't usually hold, and the underlying numbers are the more honest read on where his ERA is headed against the Cubs tomorrow.

Max Scherzer's ERA jumps to 8.33 at Rogers Centre

Scherzer's been getting hit everywhere lately, home and road — this park just tends to be where it shows up worst, and the contact rate against him here isn't wildly out of line with an ERA this bad. That reads as an already-vulnerable arm facing extra exposure tonight, not a venue-only fade.

P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Seth Lugo: 7.02 ERA over his last 3 starts

Lugo's WHIP over this stretch is actually a tick better than his season number, so this isn't him losing the zone — the runs are coming from bad sequencing once guys reach base. Until that corrects, any traffic he allows tonight has a live shot at scoring instead of getting stranded.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Will Warren: 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts

Traffic's been constant across all three of Warren's last starts, not one disaster outing padding the rest — that points to a command issue, not bad luck on balls in play. His margin for working around baserunners is thin tonight.

P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Jonathan Aranda

Aranda's in the 2-hole against Jobe, which locks him into extra trips to the plate against an arm with a 6.33 xERA. A .280 hitter batting that early in the order versus a struggling starter is a volume play stacked on a matchup play — more at-bats, same soft matchup everyone else in this lineup is feasting on. Grab him in points and deeper mixed leagues; in shallow formats he's a strong stream, not a must-roster hold.

Michael McGreevy: 3.54 ERA vs 5.32 xERA

Both the hard-hit and barrel numbers are elevated here, so hitters are legitimately squaring McGreevy up, not just getting lucky. A gap that size tends to close through extra-base hits piling up, so I'm wary of him at home against Baltimore tomorrow even with the ERA still looking clean.

Ryan Walker / Dylan Smith

Dead-even committee — Walker and Smith are tied at 3 saves each, and Smith's actually ahead on holds, 7-3. San Francisco's short favorites at -112 at home over Cincinnati, so the game profile supports a save chance. The wrinkle is Walker's only appearance in the last three games came yesterday, which reads more like a guy who just worked than one lined up for another look tonight. Don't lean on Walker specifically off the back-to-back workload — Smith is the live side of this coin flip if you need saves this week. With saves tied and holds favoring Smith, roster both if you can; this timeshare isn't resolving on its own.

Clay Holmes: 2.49 ERA vs 4.05 xERA

Holmes is getting touched — 41.9% hard-hit — but barely any of it's squared up clean at just a 4.9% barrel rate, and that's a repeatable skill, not noise. There's still some fortune in the average-against gap, but he's got more going for him tonight against Arizona than the raw ERA suggests.

P 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K

Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow's been on the 60-day with a back issue, and the roster sheet lists him back today — that's about as immediate as a return listing gets, but it's still a listing, not him standing on a mound. A 2.72 ERA is ace-caliber work whenever he's actually pitching instead of rehabbing. I want to see him actually activated before I trust the innings, but with that ERA I'm holding through the confirmation. STASH

Walbert Urena: 4.73 ERA over his last 3 starts

The hit total hasn't ballooned the way the ERA has for Urena — that looks like a handful of pitches turning costly, not a steady beating. I wouldn't treat this as the kind of freefall the ERA jump alone suggests tonight.

P 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K

Carter Baumler

Baumler's rib injury has him on the 60-day, with the return listing one day out. A 3.18 ERA out of the pen is serviceable, not special. That combo makes this a deep-league stash at best — I'd rather see the activation than hold a bench spot on a middling reliever and a one-day-away date. SPECULATIVE STASH

Jake Mangum: .292 AVG vs .251 xBA

Mangum's average is running ahead of his overall production by more than his production is running ahead of his real contact quality — that tells me the average gives back first. Trust the hit tool less than the .292 tonight against San Diego.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Jonny DeLuca

DeLuca's the softest bat of this group — .739 OPS batting 6th — but he's still getting the same discount against Jobe as the top of the order. Against a pitcher getting hit like this, even the bottom third of a lineup is in play. Streaming or DFS use only in deep formats — there are three better Rays bats in this same game to grab first.

Mason Adams: 5.79 ERA vs 4.44 xERA

A 5.79 ERA doesn't match a 31.6% hard-hit rate and 8.5% barrels — that's middling contact, not a disaster. Twenty points of average-against over his expected mark is bad luck talking, and tonight Adams is a sharper arm than the ERA lets on.

P 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Wind blowing out 10 mph at T-Mobile Park tonight

84 and clear with a 10 mph wind blowing out to center is about as good as it gets for hitters, and the total's already up at 8. I like the over getting run past in this one more than staying under.

P final total 5 vs 8 (over lean)

Troy Melton: 1.6 ERA vs 3.22 xERA

A 6% barrel rate is legitimately excellent — hitters just aren't squaring Melton up, full stop. Even stripping out some early-season luck on balls in play, a 3.22 xERA against Tampa Bay tomorrow still plays as quality-start caliber.

Red Sox are 1-0 vs Marlins this season

One meeting, one competitive 4-2 Boston win — that's the entire sample, nothing to extrapolate from. Tonight stands on its own.

Nico Hoerner: .262 AVG vs .299 xBA

This one runs the other way — Hoerner's average is sitting well below what his contact quality earns, and over 566 plate appearances that's not noise. I'd expect the hits to start landing again against Arizona tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Nick Lodolo: 5.04 ERA vs 6.5 xERA

Even beating a 6.5 xERA still leaves Lodolo at a 5.04 ERA, and a 39.9% hard-hit rate explains why — hitters are squaring him up at a real clip. San Francisco tomorrow gets a pitcher who's about as shaky as that ERA already says.

Ceddanne Rafaela: .289 AVG vs .250 xBA

Rafaela's wOBA gap runs even wider than his average gap, .341 actual against a .286 expected mark, and it's held up over a full season, not a two-week stretch. Tonight I'm treating .250 as the honest read on him, especially anything for extra bases.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Yankees are 2-1 vs Astros this season

Houston took the last meeting 7-4, and with a sample this small, that's the swing that matters most. New York held the edge for most of the series, but the Astros are the team playing better in this matchup right now.

Shane Bieber: 4.53 ERA vs 5.94 xERA

Bieber's 46% hard-hit rate is the worst mark on this whole board, and a 10.9% barrel rate confirms it's clean contact, not mishits. Only sequencing is keeping his ERA at 4.53 instead of the 5.94 his contact earns — Kansas City draws a pitcher tomorrow who's worse than either ERA figure lets on.

Moises Ballesteros

Different animal. Yeah, .214 isn't a good average, but he's hitting third tonight — that's the club putting him in a run-producing spot, not burying him. A .613 OPS is mediocre, not disqualifying, and it's a full tier above the other two names here. That lineup slot buys him rope. Keep for now — the 3-hole says the team's still betting on the bat.

Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Luis Torrens (38% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Torrens has thrown out 38% of runners this year, well above average, but Milwaukee runs on everybody regardless of the arm behind the plate. That stubbornness should cost them a free out tonight — the difference between a rally and a three-up, three-down inning.

P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases

Tyler Phillips: 3.67 ERA vs 4.81 xERA

Phillips is running a 44.3% hard-hit rate with a 1.37 WHIP — that's a lot of loud contact and traffic for a sub-4 ERA to keep surviving. The strikeout rate is real, but tonight the hard-contact number worries me more than the ERA reassures me.

P 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K

Mookie Betts: .236 AVG vs .272 xBA

Betts is running the other way from most of this list — his expected numbers sit above his actual line on both average and wOBA across 395 plate appearances. That's more room to climb than fall, and tonight I'd back the .272 quality read over the .236 he's actually shown.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Yandy Diaz

Diaz is the best hitter in this Tampa lineup — .839 OPS, .305 average — and he's leading off against a starter sitting on a 6.33 xERA who's been getting hit all night. Leadoff means the most at-bats of anyone in this game, layered on top of being the best bat of the four. Top priority add in every format — if you only take one Rays bat against Jobe tonight, it's Diaz.

Connor Prielipp: 5.57 ERA vs 4.29 xERA

A 41.8% hard-hit rate wasn't clean to begin with, and hitters are also running above their expected average against him — bad luck stacking on shaky contact management rather than canceling it out. Oakland's drawing more risk tomorrow than the underperforming label suggests.

Jake Cronenworth

Cronenworth's still getting the 2-hole for San Diego tonight, but that lineup slot is the only thing propping him up. A .230 average and a .622 OPS from a table-setter is replacement-level production — he's not getting on base enough to justify the at-bats in a season-long build. Cut

Roman Anthony

Anthony's finger has him shelved, with a return listing three days out. A .675 OPS on the season is below what I need from an outfield spot even at full health, so the injury isn't really the issue here — the production is. I'm not tying up a roster spot on that line, return date or not. CUT

Jake Fraley

Fraley's groin has him on the 60-day, listing him back in three days. A .690 OPS is replacement-level work, and that doesn't change just because the date is close. Nothing about this profile clears the bar for a stash. CUT

Freddy Peralta: 5.33 ERA vs 4.11 xERA

A 6.3% barrel rate is the number that matters — hitters aren't squaring Peralta up much, and that's the real skill behind a 4.11 xERA. Detroit's a fair spot tomorrow to expect the results to start looking like the process underneath them.

Walbert Urena owns a 2.27 ERA at Angel Stadium — 3.57 everywhere else

Urena's a different arm once he's home — 2.27 ERA over 60-plus innings at Angel Stadium is an established form, not a hot week, and the average against backs it up. Cleveland's running into the best version of him tonight.

P 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K

Dylan Crews

OPS .646 and a .213 average are below the line for a season-long spot, full stop. The one thing working in his favor: WSH still has him hitting third tonight, and that's not where you bat a guy you've given up on. Hold one more turn — the 3-hole buys a short leash before the cut.

Salvador Perez

A .643 OPS and .222 average are cut-line numbers no matter how you slice it. But KC is still running him out cleanup tonight, and that lineup trust is the only thing propping up his roster value right now. Bench the frustration, not the roster spot — cleanup hitters get one more week before the plug gets pulled.

Leo Jimenez

A .585 OPS is replacement level on a good day, and .211 gives you nothing to dream on. He's still batting sixth for MIA tonight, which tells you the lineup card isn't betting on a breakout either. Cut him. A sub-.600 OPS in the six-hole is dead roster space, not a stash.

At Nationals Park, Andrew Alvarez pitches to a 4.24 ERA

The two samples are close to even in size, so this isn't three bad road starts skewing the picture — Alvarez is genuinely a full run worse in this building than everywhere else combined. Colorado catches him tonight in the park that's given him the most trouble.

P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K

Philadelphia Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games (.676 win%)

Philly's 23-11 in one-run games looks like a great team, but a .676 win rate in coin-flip situations doesn't hold up long-term — that's variance more than repeatable skill. I wouldn't take their record at face value against Seattle.

Joe Mantiply

Mantiply's knee has him on the 60-day, with a listing four days out. A 2.04 ERA is quality relief work worth a bullpen spot in most formats. Knees can push a return listing back without warning, so I want the actual activation before I trust the innings, but the number's good enough to hold the spot while I wait. STASH

Tanner Gordon: 5.75 ERA vs 4.72 xERA

Gordon's been getting hit with bad luck — a .314 average against on a .265 expected mark is the widest gap on the board tonight. But I'm not chasing a turnaround: 44% hard contact and a double-digit barrel rate mean hitters are squaring him up for real, so even with better luck this settles in as a below-average arm against Washington.

Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson

Taylor leads 7-5 in saves and 10-8 in holds, ahead on both counts, but within 2 saves keeps Hudson squarely in the mix. Chicago's a light home underdog at +102 against Texas, so a save chance here sits below a coin flip before you even get to who'd get the call. Taylor's worked once in the last three games but is fully rested now, so it's the underdog price and the shared role working against this spot, not fatigue. Thin saves equity even in a White Sox win. If you're desperate this week, Taylor's the lead arm to speculate on, but this isn't a game to bank saves around — treat it as a low-priority streaming look, and keep Hudson in mind as the handcuff.

San Francisco Giants are 11-23 in one-run games (.324 win%)

San Francisco's 11-23 in one-run games is the kind of number that makes a team look worse than it actually is — a .324 mark there is due for a pull back toward .500. If the Giants are getting priced off that record, there's value hiding on the other side.

Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange

Erceg's the clear volume leader at 12 saves, with Lange technically within range at 10 but well back in real usage. Kansas City's the underdog tonight at +112 in Toronto, which works against a save chance existing at all since dogs lead in the ninth less often. Erceg hasn't pitched in three games and is fully rested, so if the Royals do grab a late lead, he's the fresh arm getting the ball. Erceg stays a set-it-and-forget-it saves asset for the week on the strength of that 12-save workload — this is about as safe as a committee closer gets. Tonight specifically just isn't the highest-probability spot given the number, so don't force a stream around this game alone.

Ryan Helsley / Andrew Kittredge

Helsley's the unambiguous leader — 8 saves, no holds logged against him — and he's fully rested with nothing thrown in three days. The wrinkle is Baltimore is a +116 underdog on the road at St. Louis, which trims the odds of a save chance tonight regardless of how fresh the arm looks. This is a workload non-issue and a role non-issue — Helsley's a stand-pat hold for saves this week. Don't let one underdog price tonight talk you into shopping the waiver wire for a replacement.

Green light: Washington Nationals run, and Hunter Goodman has caught just 16%

Colorado's catcher has caught just 16% of runners, and Washington is exactly the team built to exploit that. Every runner who reaches first is really starting from second tonight, with the Nationals dictating pace from the bases up.

P Washington Nationals stole 1 base

Nolan Gorman

A .194 average and a .598 OPS are replacement-level, and that's before you notice St. Louis has him hitting sixth tonight, not further up where the at-bats and RBI chances stack up. When the lineup card itself is telling you this bat isn't trusted in a run-producing spot, you don't need another reason. Season-long rosters are real estate — this is a lot nobody's building on right now. Cut him.

Seth Lugo

Lugo's ERA (4.71) and xERA (5.18) are less than half a run apart, which means there's no unlucky-sequencing excuse to hide behind -- the process and the results are telling the same story. That story is a below-replacement arm, not a buy-low. He starts tonight, but there's no reason to trust this outing any more than the ones that got him here. Cut -- the numbers agree, and they agree he's droppable.

NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10

Yankees haven't plated a first-inning run in ten games, and Warren's been just as locked in early himself — .225 against with only five homers allowed in his first innings all year. Neither side is built to strike fast tonight, so I'm staying off the first inning and letting this one develop.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10

Washington hasn't scored first in ten straight, and the mound matches the theme — an ERA of zero and hitters stuck near .100 before the first inning's even over. I'd fade any first-inning scoring here; this game finds its shape later.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Chris Bassitt

Bassitt's the easiest read of the bunch: 5.08 ERA, 5.11 xERA, basically the same number twice. No hidden skill getting masked by bad luck, no case for 'better than this' -- the underlying and the surface are in total agreement that this isn't a season-long roster arm. Tonight's start doesn't change any of that. Easy cut -- zero argument for holding.

Detroit Tigers are 12-22 in one-run games (.353 win%)

Detroit's 12-22 in one-run games, a .353 mark that reads worse than this team actually is — that split doesn't stick and should drift back toward .500 over time. I wouldn't judge the Tigers by that record alone.

Matthew Boyd: 4.15 ERA vs 5.01 xERA

Boyd's barrel rate is a touch high at 9.8% and the hard contact adds up to a shakier profile than his sub-4.20 ERA suggests. It's the smallest gap in this group, about 22 points of suppression on average against, but the trend still points toward some of that contact quality catching up to him next time out.

Freddie Freeman vs Bryce Elder: .400

Freeman's four-for-ten with a walk against Elder, and an .855 OPS against him beats the .702 he's carried over his last fifteen games. He's actually seeing Elder better than he's seeing pitching lately — I like him plenty comfortable in the box again tonight.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

Ryne Nelson

Nelson's elbow has him on the 60-day, with a listing a week out. A 4.97 ERA was already replacement-level before the injury. Between the production and an elbow issue's habit of moving return dates, nothing here clears the bar for a roster spot. CUT

Matt Brash

Brash is out with a lat issue, listed back in a week. A 0.54 ERA is about as dominant as a relief line gets. Lat injuries are exactly the kind that push a return listing without notice, so I'm not banking on the exact date — but a number like that earns a full week of patience. STASH

Nick Mears

Shoulder, seven days out. A 5.12 ERA is replacement level even healthy, and the injury doesn't give me anything new to get excited about. Cut — no case for the roster spot.

CHW have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

White Sox have scored first just once in ten games, but that's not because deGrom's been slamming the door — he's carrying a 7.50 ERA and nine homers allowed in the first inning alone this season. Kay's no lockdown option early either, so if anyone draws first blood tonight, I'd bet on Texas doing it.

P flagged team scored 6 in the 1st

Seth Lugo vs Jesus Sanchez: 1-for-10, 5 K

Five strikeouts in ten career at-bats against Lugo is about as clear a dominance signal as it gets, and a .582 OPS says even the contact hasn't been competitive. Lugo's had the answer for Sanchez before, and I like the strikeout in play again tonight.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB

Gavin Stone

Stone's shoulder has him on the 60-day, with a listing seven days out, but there's no season line to grade the arm on. No performance number to lean on and a shoulder injury on top of it means this is a watch-only situation — worth a look only if you've got a spare bench spot in a deep league, not one I'd commit to yet. MONITOR