MLB · Tue, Aug 25 · 7:45 PM

Orioles at Cardinals

O/U 8.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Busch Stadium

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· +114

I’m taking Baltimore at plus money because I make this game much closer than the price does. Chris Bassitt’s 5.08 ERA and Matthew Liberatore’s 5.04 ERA present similar surface risk. Bassitt’s 7.28 road ERA keeps the confidence measured, while Liberatore owns a 5.16 ERA at Busch Stadium. The underlying contact favors Bassitt. He has allowed a 4.4% barrel rate and 35.8% hard-hit rate, compared with Liberatore’s 9% and 41.7%. Liberatore has also allowed a .872 OPS to left-handed hitters and .780 to right-handers, leaving Baltimore multiple ways into the game. St. Louis has its own route through Bassitt’s .931 OPS allowed to lefties, so I’m not treating either starter as safe. The separation comes after the starters. Baltimore’s bullpen owns a 2.35 ERA over its last seven games and allowed no earned runs across 9.2 innings in its last three. St. Louis’ bullpen carries an 8.17 ERA over its last seven and surrendered 14 earned runs across 12.2 innings in its last three. Both clubs had Monday off, making this about recent execution rather than immediate fatigue. My read is that Baltimore keeps this close through Bassitt, creates enough traffic against Liberatore and gets the better late-inning performance. In a volatile matchup between comparable starters, the Orioles are the side I want at +114.

The pick & result

Published pick: Orioles ML +114
Published odds: +114
Result: Won
Final score: 13-1

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

The underlying contact favors Bassitt. He has allowed a 4.4% barrel rate and 35.8% hard-hit rate, compared with Liberatore’s 9% and 41.7%. Liberatore has also allowed a .872 OPS to left-handed hitters and .780 to right-handers, leaving Baltimore multiple ways into the game. St. Louis has its own route through Bassitt’s .931 OPS allowed to lefties, so I’m not treating either starter as safe.

The separation comes after the starters. Baltimore’s bullpen owns a 2.35 ERA over its last seven games and allowed no earned runs across 9.2 innings in its last three. St. Louis’ bullpen carries an 8.17 ERA over its last seven and surrendered 14 earned runs across 12.2 innings in its last three. Both clubs had Monday off, making this about recent execution rather than immediate fatigue.

My read is that Baltimore keeps this close through Bassitt, creates enough traffic against Liberatore and gets the better late-inning performance. In a volatile matchup between comparable starters, the Orioles are the side I want at +114.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
1.105
Coby Mayo turns into a completely different hitter once a lefty's on the mound, and Liberatore starting means he gets that look from the first pitch instead of a matchup swap late. Cleaning up against him puts those at-bats right where Baltimore wants them, with runners more likely to be on.
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Chris Bassitt (RHP)
.979
Alec Burleson's numbers against right-handers are on a different level than what he shows against lefties, and hitting third against Bassitt tonight gets him that matchup early with traffic already on the bases. That's the version of Burleson St. Louis builds its lineup around.

HEAT CHECK

Pete Alonso: 1.395 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.395
Alonso was never punchless — thirty bombs on the year — so a 1.395 OPS over 54 plate appearances plays as a real heater, not soft-arm padding. One extra-base hit gets him to 1.5 total bases, and I like his odds of getting there tonight.

COOLING OFF

Jackson Holliday: .437 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Matthew Liberatore
.437
Jackson Holliday's .437 OPS over his last 15 days comes from the biggest sample in this group, and his numbers against lefties barely differ from his season line — there's no hidden strength waiting to bail him out. Liberatore doesn't change the equation tonight, this is just who he's been all year.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Cardinals are 2-0 vs Orioles this season
2-0
Two games, two Cardinals wins including a comfortable 7-2 — but that's a two-game sample, not a trend. St. Louis being home tonight matters more here than the head-to-head mark does.

CLOSER WATCH

Ryan Helsley / Andrew Kittredge
8 SV
Helsley's the unambiguous leader — 8 saves, no holds logged against him — and he's fully rested with nothing thrown in three days. The wrinkle is Baltimore is a +116 underdog on the road at St. Louis, which trims the odds of a save chance tonight regardless of how fresh the arm looks. This is a workload non-issue and a role non-issue — Helsley's a stand-pat hold for saves this week. Don't let one underdog price tonight talk you into shopping the waiver wire for a replacement.

CUT LIST

Nolan Gorman
0.598 OPS
A .194 average and a .598 OPS are replacement-level, and that's before you notice St. Louis has him hitting sixth tonight, not further up where the at-bats and RBI chances stack up. When the lineup card itself is telling you this bat isn't trusted in a run-producing spot, you don't need another reason. Season-long rosters are real estate — this is a lot nobody's building on right now. Cut him.
Chris Bassitt
5.11 xERA
Bassitt's the easiest read of the bunch: 5.08 ERA, 5.11 xERA, basically the same number twice. No hidden skill getting masked by bad luck, no case for 'better than this' -- the underlying and the surface are in total agreement that this isn't a season-long roster arm. Tonight's start doesn't change any of that. Easy cut -- zero argument for holding.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored August 25, 2026 at 5:15 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, betmgm, fanduel, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ALEC BURLESONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +110
LOST · ACTUAL 1
I’m backing Burleson to clear two total bases against a right-hander he matches up with extremely well. He owns a .327 average and .979 OPS against righties, while Chris Bassitt has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .333 with a .931 OPS. Burleson is also carrying a .365 average and .998 OPS over his last 15 days. Batting third gives him strong plate-appearance and run-production equity, and Bassitt’s sinker and cutter have allowed batting averages of .328 and .306. Burleson has cleared this line in eight of his last 15, and plus money is enough for me in this matchup.
Alec Burleson
Total Bases over 1.5
+110 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
St. Louis Cardinals
I’m backing Burleson to clear two total bases against a right-hander he matches up with extremely well. He owns a .327 average and .979 OPS against righties, while Chris Bassitt has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .333 with a .931 OPS.
Burleson is also carrying a .365 average and .998 OPS over his last 15 days. Batting third gives him strong plate-appearance and run-production equity, and Bassitt’s sinker and cutter have allowed batting averages of .328 and .306. Burleson has cleared this line in eight of his last 15, and plus money is enough for me in this matchup.
GARY'S PICK
CHRIS BASSITTPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5
MLBBaltimore Orioles· -103
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 6
Bassitt has allowed more than 5.5 hits in five of his last eight starts, and his 1.62 WHIP leaves very little margin at this number. He surrendered eight hits in his most recent outing and has been substantially more vulnerable away from Baltimore, posting a 7.28 road ERA. The pitch-level results support more traffic. Opponents are batting .328 against his primary sinker and .306 against his cutter, while left-handed hitters have produced a .333 average against him. St. Louis has four lefties in the lineup, and the club has averaged 5.6 runs across its last 10 games. I only need six hits at nearly even money.
Chris Bassitt
Pitcher Hits Allowed over 5.5
-103 · CASHED · ACTUAL 6
Baltimore Orioles
Bassitt has allowed more than 5.5 hits in five of his last eight starts, and his 1.62 WHIP leaves very little margin at this number. He surrendered eight hits in his most recent outing and has been substantially more vulnerable away from Baltimore, posting a 7.28 road ERA.
The pitch-level results support more traffic. Opponents are batting .328 against his primary sinker and .306 against his cutter, while left-handed hitters have produced a .333 average against him. St. Louis has four lefties in the lineup, and the club has averaged 5.6 runs across its last 10 games. I only need six hits at nearly even money.

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