Sports Picks Archive — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· -114

This is a starting-pitcher bet, and Detroit has the arm I trust. Troy Melton carries a 1.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, while Freddy Peralta enters with a 5.33 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. The location and current form reinforce that gap: Melton has a 2.09 ERA across seven home starts and a 2.25 ERA over his last three; Peralta has a 6.79 ERA across 12 road starts and a 5.09 ERA over his last three. Both lineups start five left-handed hitters. Melton has held lefties to a .206 average and .712 OPS while limiting righties to .178 and .443. Peralta has allowed lefties to hit .271 with an .811 OPS and righties to hit .259 with a .780 OPS. Detroit has the better matchup against the opposing starter from both sides of the plate. Tampa Bay’s 2.37 bullpen ERA and 0.96 WHIP are real concerns against Detroit’s 3.66 and 1.34, so my read requires Melton to carry the game into the later innings and Detroit to get to Peralta before Tampa Bay’s best relievers take control. I believe that is how this game unfolds. At -114, the moneyline is the clean ticket: Tigers to win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cubs· +104

Getaway day in Phoenix, 112 degrees outside and the roof pulled shut, rubber game of a series that's already produced a sign-stealing shouting match and a two-run walk-off. Arizona is playing for a Wild Card spot they're one game out of. Chicago is playing out the sixth game of a road trip before flying home. And the number says the Cubs are a small favorite, which is the market paying for the season-long résumé instead of the pitcher who's actually taking the ball. That's the bet. Matthew Boyd's four-seamer is the single most exploitable pitch on the field tonight — it's the offering he throws nearly half the time, and hitters are sitting on a .404 expected wOBA against it with a whiff rate under ten percent. Right-handed bats have taken him deep thirteen times. Eight of his last thirteen runs allowed left the yard, and he's carrying a 6.12 August ERA into a park that grades hitter-friendly even with the roof closed. Now look at what Lovullo wrote out against him: six right-handed hitters, two switch-hitters, one lefty. Arizona hits .280 with a .798 OPS against left-handed pitching and sits 23-11 when a lefty starts. That is a lineup constructed specifically to punish this arm, and it only takes one elevated 92 to change the game. On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.61 ERA, a 2.67 mark at Chase, and the D-backs have gone 17-3 in a recent twenty-start stretch behind him. The starter gap tonight runs the opposite direction of the price. The late innings tilt the same way. Arizona's leverage arms — Ginkel, Loaisiga, Morillo — haven't thrown since Sunday, three full days of rest and a stocked deck for a one-run bridge. Chicago's back end just handed back a four-run lead in this building: Palencia gave up three, Webb served the walk-off slider, and both are coming off work. In a game that projects tight, I want the side with the better starter, the platoon edge, and the fresher pen — and I'm getting plus money to take it. Diamondbacks moneyline at +104.

That's the bet. Matthew Boyd's four-seamer is the single most exploitable pitch on the field tonight — it's the offering he throws nearly half the time, and hitters are sitting on a .404 expected wOBA against it with a whiff rate under ten percent. Right-handed bats have taken him deep thirteen times. Eight of his last thirteen runs allowed left the yard, and he's carrying a 6.12 August ERA into a park that grades hitter-friendly even with the roof closed. Now look at what Lovullo wrote out against him: six right-handed hitters, two switch-hitters, one lefty. Arizona hits .280 with a .798 OPS against left-handed pitching and sits 23-11 when a lefty starts. That is a lineup constructed specifically to punish this arm, and it only takes one elevated 92 to change the game. On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.61 ERA, a 2.67 mark at Chase, and the D-backs have gone 17-3 in a recent twenty-start stretch behind him. The starter gap tonight runs the opposite direction of the price.

The late innings tilt the same way. Arizona's leverage arms — Ginkel, Loaisiga, Morillo — haven't thrown since Sunday, three full days of rest and a stocked deck for a one-run bridge. Chicago's back end just handed back a four-run lead in this building: Palencia gave up three, Webb served the walk-off slider, and both are coming off work. In a game that projects tight, I want the side with the better starter, the platoon edge, and the fresher pen — and I'm getting plus money to take it. Diamondbacks moneyline at +104.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -118

I’m backing San Francisco, and this is not a blind sweep play. Logan Webb is the separator: he carries a 3.75 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 141.2 innings, compared with Nick Lodolo’s 5.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 75.0 innings. Webb has a 3.42 ERA at home, while Lodolo has a 5.59 ERA on the road. Cincinnati also owns a .222 average and .684 OPS against right-handed pitching, and Webb has held both right- and left-handed hitters below a .650 OPS. There are legitimate risks. San Francisco’s confirmed lineup is thinner than the group that produced most of the offense earlier in the series, and its bullpen has covered 18.0 innings over the last three games. That keeps this from being a high-confidence favorite play. Still, those relievers allowed only two earned runs during that workload, and Webb offers the best chance of either starter to keep today’s bullpen requirement manageable. This sets up as a close, restrained game at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. That is why I want the moneyline rather than a margin-dependent ticket. At -118, I’m asking the stronger starting-pitcher profile to produce an outright home win at a reasonable price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Phillies· +116

This game reads much closer to a coin flip than the price suggests, so I’m taking Seattle at plus money. Bryan Woo has a 1.96 ERA at T-Mobile Park, where the Mariners are 8-2 in his starts. Jesús Luzardo counters with a 1.95 road ERA, and Philadelphia is 11-2 in those starts. However, Seattle’s six right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters face the side against which Luzardo has allowed a .735 OPS. Woo has held left-handed hitters to a .676 OPS, relevant against Philadelphia’s six left-handed bats. Philadelphia’s bullpen is the concern: it owns a 3.47 ERA and a 2.18 ERA over the last seven games, compared with Seattle’s 4.01 and 5.88 marks. Woo’s return from shoulder soreness also keeps this from being a high-confidence play, although he was cleared after his bullpen session. Still, Seattle has already won this series’ first two games 9-2 and 4-1, Woo’s home performance is established, and the lineup construction gives the Mariners a measurable route against Luzardo. At +116, I’ll trust Seattle to finish the sweep.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Padres· +122

I’m taking Pittsburgh at plus money. Randy Vásquez has been excellent lately—four earned runs across his last 18 innings—and that deserves respect. But his season-long matchup is vulnerable: left-handed hitters own a .305 average and .855 OPS against him, and Pittsburgh starts four left-handed hitters plus two switch-hitters. The Pirates have also produced a .259 average and .762 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared with San Diego’s .236 average and .709 OPS. Bubba Chandler carries risk after allowing four earned runs in four innings against Los Angeles, but his underlying contact profile is cleaner than Vásquez’s. Chandler has allowed a 5.6% barrel rate and 38.3% hard-hit rate; Vásquez sits at 10.3% and 43.9%. At a pitcher-friendly park with a 0.92 factor, I’ll trust the starter who has limited damaging contact more consistently. San Diego owns the better bullpen and defense, so this is no blind ride on Pittsburgh’s two wins in the series. The Padres’ current relievers have a 2.19 ERA against Pittsburgh’s 3.16, and their .988 fielding percentage is better than the Pirates’ .982. But the price compensates for those advantages, while the starting-pitcher platoon matchup points toward Pittsburgh. I want the upside of Pirates ML +122, not the expensive protection of +1.5 at -176.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· -134

I’m laying the manageable price with Cleveland because its advantage runs through the entire game. Joey Cantillo owns a 3.73 ERA and a 2.31 ERA over his last three starts. Grayson Rodriguez has improved—his August ERA is 3.27 and he just threw seven scoreless innings—but his full-season 6.41 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 8.82 ERA at Angel Stadium remain difficult to dismiss. The lineup matchup reinforces that edge. Rodriguez has allowed left-handed hitters a .302 average and .905 OPS, and Cleveland starts three left-handed hitters alongside four switch-hitters. Cantillo has allowed a .262 average and .758 OPS to right-handed hitters, so the Angels’ right-handed lineup has a path, but he already held this club scoreless over six innings in their previous meeting. If the starters leave this close, I trust Cleveland’s infrastructure. The Guardians’ bullpen has a 3.10 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, compared with 3.54 and 1.24 for the Angels. Cleveland has also committed zero errors over its last seven games; Los Angeles has committed five and allowed six unearned runs. The six-game winning streak is not my entire case—it was built against weak opposition—but Cleveland has repeatedly converted these advantages while taking six of seven from Los Angeles this season. I’m choosing the moneyline because Cantillo’s 1.45 WHIP and the workload on Cleveland’s bullpen leave enough volatility to avoid requiring a two-run victory. My read calls for Cleveland to survive the uncertain portions of this game and own the more dependable path to the final out. Guardians outright is the ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -126

This game turns when the starters hand over the baseball. Sonny Gray carries a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP against Ryan Gusto’s 4.37 and 1.34. Both have a 2.84 ERA over their last three starts, so I’m not dismissing Miami early. The separator is length: Gray has completed six innings in five of his last six starts; Gusto has done it once. That handoff favors Boston. Its bullpen has a 1.35 ERA over the last seven games, compared with Miami’s 4.75. The Marlins used seven relievers Tuesday, lost Pete Fairbanks to a fresh injured-list placement, and have already worked Josh Ekness and Tyler Zuber on consecutive days. Boston also played eleven innings, but used five relievers and did not call on Aroldis Chapman. I can see Miami keeping this close, which is exactly why I’m taking the moneyline instead of asking Boston to cover -1.5. If the game is tied when Gusto exits, Gray’s length and Boston’s late-inning options are the pieces I trust. At -126, I’ll pay for the outright win without demanding a margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Nationals· +118

Matt Waldron is the hinge. He carries a 7.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP into his Nationals debut, and left-handed hitters have produced a .345 average and 1.040 OPS against him. Jake McCarthy, TJ Rumfield, Mickey Moniak and Troy Johnston give Colorado four left-handed bats, while Hunter Goodman restores the lineup’s biggest power threat. Colorado has also seen Waldron this season. The Rockies went 8-for-22 with one homer and three walks while scoring six earned runs in five innings against him on April 23. That does not guarantee a repeat, but it removes some of the uncertainty surrounding his knuckleball. Tanner Gordon is hardly safe with a 5.75 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, yet he is the steadier starting point in this particular matchup. Colorado has also generated the sharper contact over its last three games, producing a .409 xwOBA and 38.2% hard-hit rate compared with Washington’s .355 and 28.2%. Washington owns the bullpen advantage—3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP versus Colorado’s 4.68 and 1.55—and that keeps my confidence controlled. But both clubs are 2-8 over their last ten, so I am not laying a favorite’s price for Washington’s recent form. My read gives Colorado a real path to winning outright through the Waldron matchup. I would rather take that upside at +118 than pay -192 for run-line protection.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· +110

The starting matchup makes Houston worth taking at plus money. Elmer Rodríguez has only four MLB starts and 17 innings, with 10 strikeouts, 11 walks and a 1.76 WHIP. Houston sends six right-handed hitters against him; righties have batted .350 with an .859 OPS in 40 at-bats. It is a thin sample, but it agrees with the traffic and command problems already evident in Rodríguez’s larger pitching line. New York counters with seven left-handed hitters, but Peter Lambert has held lefties to a .167 average and .533 OPS across 234 at-bats. He also owns a 2.98 road ERA. His nine-run collapse against the Angels is the risk, but Lambert had allowed exactly two earned runs in every start from July 22 through August 14. My judgment is that the last outing was a bad night, not proof that his entire season has unraveled. New York’s 2.93 bullpen ERA over the last seven games, compared with Houston’s 5.23, is the strongest argument against this ticket. But Rodríguez’s previous workload points toward another early handoff, New York has a fresh bullpen absence, and Brent Headrick threw 27 pitches while allowing three runs Tuesday. Houston still has Josh Hader, who carries a 0.81 ERA and needed only 10 pitches for four outs last night. I’m backing Houston to win the starting matchup and make the plus price stand.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· +138

Toronto is priced like the steadier side, but Kansas City has the cleaner route through the early innings. Randy Dobnak carries a 1.58 ERA, a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts and a 0.00 ERA across three road starts. Spencer Miles has a 3.02 ERA overall, but he has allowed 14 earned runs in 14 innings as a starter. The Blue Jays are asking an opener-and-bulk arrangement to cover the rotation spot created by Shane Bieber’s fresh absence. The matchup immediately behind those pitchers also favors Kansas City. The Royals start five left-handed hitters, and Miles has allowed a .701 OPS to lefties compared with .447 to righties. That gives Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino and the rest of Kansas City’s left-handed group a real chance to apply pressure before Toronto reaches its best relievers. Toronto’s bullpen is the strongest argument against this ticket: its current arms own a 3.42 ERA compared with Kansas City’s 4.53. But five Blue Jays relievers worked Tuesday, and the club needs substantial coverage again tonight. Kansas City has won nine straight, is averaging 5.5 runs over its last ten games and already showed it can manufacture runs in this park without relying on homers. Dobnak’s 1.40 WHIP and 20 walks keep this from being a high-confidence play, but Toronto should not be laying this price with the less reliable opening arrangement. I see Kansas City as having a legitimate chance to win, not merely stay within one run, so I’ll take the payout rather than lay -166 for protection.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· -122

I’m laying the short road price because tonight’s strongest, most trustworthy edge is the starting-pitcher gap. Roki Sasaki has held six straight opponents to two earned runs or fewer and owns a 2.31 ERA across his six post-All-Star starts. AJ Smith-Shawver enters with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over only 8.2 innings, and neither of his two starts lasted beyond 4.1 innings. His splitter has missed bats, so I’m not treating him as helpless—just far less proven than the pitcher on the other side. Los Angeles also owns the stronger season line against right-handed pitching, batting .261 with a .767 OPS compared with Atlanta’s .248 and .725. The Braves’ bullpen deserves respect: its 2.54 ERA and 0.99 WHIP are better than the Dodgers’ 2.85 and 1.04. That relief edge, plus Atlanta’s three wins in four meetings, keeps me away from laying 1.5 runs. The moneyline fits the read. I want Sasaki’s sustained second-half form and the deeper Dodgers lineup without asking Los Angeles to win by multiple runs. I’m trusting the established starter over the eight-inning wild card.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Brewers· -128

I want the run here. New York is playing too well at Citi Field, and this matchup is too balanced, for me to lay -148 with Milwaukee. The Mets are 7-3 over their last 10 and 6-1 at home during that stretch; Milwaukee is 6-4 over its last 10 but has lost two straight. Those records do not decide tonight, but they establish that this is not a lifeless home underdog. Robert Stock’s 5.40 ERA and 1.68 WHIP keep me from forcing the Mets moneyline, but his three home starts have produced a 1.32 ERA. Dustin May brings the deeper résumé and already threw six scoreless innings against New York this season, yet he has a 5.59 road ERA and surrendered seven earned runs in two innings last time out. New York also starts four left-handed hitters against a pitcher who has allowed them a .751 OPS, compared with .601 against righties. Milwaukee’s bullpen is the reason I want the insurance. It owns a 0.88 ERA over the last seven games, compared with 3.24 for the Mets, giving the Brewers the cleaner late-game path. But Citi Field is pitcher-friendly, Tuesday’s opener required 10 innings to separate these clubs, and the season series is tied 2-2. My read calls for another competitive game. The extra run and a half lets New York cash the ticket with either an outright win or a one-run loss.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· +110

Sean Burke owns the cleaner season line, but tonight I’m betting the direction of these starters. MacKenzie Gore has allowed four earned runs with 21 strikeouts across his last 17 innings. Burke has allowed nine earned runs with 14 strikeouts across his last 17⅓. That is the clearest edge in this matchup. Gore’s 5.42 road ERA is the risk, but his last three road starts produced a 3.50 ERA, and he enters with a 1.57 ERA in August. Chicago’s hottest hitter, Tristan Peters, has a .356 OPS against left-handed pitching, while Texas brings Corey Seager at 11-for-28 and Ezequiel Duran at 10-for-25 over the last seven days. Chicago’s bullpen has covered 17⅓ innings and allowed 10 earned runs over the last three games; Texas has covered 10⅔ and allowed six. Neither relief group is airtight, but the Rangers have the better chance to reach those innings without asking their bullpen to rescue the game early. My read is Texas wins outright, so I’m taking the plus-money moneyline instead of paying heavily for the extra run.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -108

Tuesday’s 13-1 result is not the bet. The bet is what happens when a competitive game reaches the middle innings, and Baltimore owns the better path from there. Bradish has a 3.06 ERA over his last three starts, narrowly better than McGreevy’s 3.18. Bradish also has the cleaner contact profile: a 7.8% barrel rate and 38.2% hard-hit rate allowed, compared with McGreevy’s 9.8% and 42.4%. The bullpens are nearly even for the season—Baltimore at 4.00 and St. Louis at 3.98—but their recent performance has separated sharply. The Orioles’ bullpen has a 1.27 ERA over seven games; the Cardinals’ bullpen is at 8.89. That is the clearest advantage in this matchup, particularly if neither starter works deep. My read is a tight game, not another rout. That is why I’m taking the moneyline instead of requiring Baltimore to cover 1.5 runs. At -108, Bradish’s recent form, Baltimore’s contact advantage and the far more reliable recent bullpen performance are enough for me to back the Orioles to finish the job.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· +122

This is a bet on tonight’s pitching matchup, not the season standings. J.T. Ginn owns a 3.60 ERA and 1.23 WHIP; Connor Prielipp sits at 5.57 and 1.40. Ginn has a 3.16 ERA across 10 home starts, with his team going 7-3. Prielipp has a 6.58 ERA across eight road starts, with Minnesota going 1-7. The current form widens that gap. Prielipp has allowed 17 earned runs in his last 16 innings, while Ginn has allowed eight in his last 17. Ginn has also permitted a 5.4% barrel rate and 35.1% hard-hit rate, compared with Prielipp’s 8.0% and 41.8%. In a hitter-friendly park with a 97°F game-time temperature and wind moving out to right field, I trust Ginn’s contact profile more. Prielipp held the Athletics to one earned run over 5⅔ innings in July, but that came before his 8.44 August ERA. Minnesota’s bullpen has since posted an 8.35 ERA over its last seven games, compared with 5.60 for the Athletics, and the Twins are closing this road trip without Byron Buxton following his fresh hip issue. My read is that the Athletics receive the better start and have the more reliable route through the late innings. Getting the home side at plus money makes the moneyline the ticket.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

FREDDY PERALTAPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +110

I’m backing Detroit to score at least three earned runs before Peralta’s day ends. He owns a 5.33 ERA overall, a 6.79 road ERA and a 7.17 mark in August, with three-plus earned runs allowed in four of his last six starts. Detroit starts five left-handed hitters, and lefties have produced an .811 OPS with 16 homers against him. Comerica Park suppresses power, but 11 of the 18 recent scoring plays against Peralta came without a home run. That makes the plus price playable.

GARY'S PICK

KEVIN MCGONIGLEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -112

McGonigle bats second and owns a .298 average with an .869 OPS against right-handed pitching. His recent contact supports the results: an 89.7 mph average exit velocity, 11 hard-hit balls, four barrels and only an 8% whiff rate. Peralta has allowed left-handed hitters a .271 average and .811 OPS, giving McGonigle multiple paths to cash through a hit, run or RBI. At essentially even money, I’ll take him to produce two combined.

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW BOYDK'S UNDER 3.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +117

Boyd hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in months and the market is still pricing him like one. Seventy-one punchouts in ninety-one innings, and the pitch he throws almost half the time — the 92.7 four-seamer — gets a whiff rate of nine percent. Nine. His last four starts: three, three, two, three. He has not reached four strikeouts since July 29. Now put that in front of this lineup. Arizona is one of the hardest teams in the league to miss bats against — a shade over seven strikeouts a game, and only a seventeen-percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Look at the top of Lovullo's card: Vargas whiffs on thirteen percent of his swings, Perdomo eleven. Those two hitters have combined for the kind of at-bats that end in contact, not in the catcher's mitt. For this to go over, Boyd needs four strikeouts out of an arsenal generating them at roughly one every two innings against a club that puts the ball in play. He'd essentially need to work into the seventh clean. I don't see the path, and I'm being paid plus money to say so.

GARY'S PICK

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -112

Twenty-six starts this season. Rodriguez has allowed three or more earned runs in six of them. Six. That is a rate of under a quarter, and the price here is asking me to believe it's basically a coin flip tonight. The engine is the changeup — a quarter of his pitches, a .279 expected wOBA against it, a twenty-nine percent whiff rate, and hitters chasing it out of the zone almost half the time. That's the pitch that beat the Dodgers four times this year and held Cincinnati scoreless five days ago. He's at 2.67 at Chase Field across nearly eighty-eight innings here, and his last three turns produced four earned runs total with eighteen strikeouts against four walks. I'll grant the fair objection: Chicago has the best offense in the National League and puts up 5.2 a game. That's why this isn't a bigger number for me. But Rodriguez holds right-handed bats to .232 with a .684 OPS, and Counsell is running six righties out there. His blow-up starts this year came against San Diego and St. Louis with the fastball catching too much plate — that's a real failure mode, not a common one. Under 2.5.

THE LONG SHOT

NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +650

Boyd's damage arrives in the air. Eight of his last thirteen runs allowed came on home runs, and eleven days ago he surrendered four in a single start at Wrigley. Thirteen home runs to right-handed hitters in 255 at-bats is a rate north of five percent — one every twenty at-bats against righties, in a season where he's also carrying a 9.8 percent barrel rate allowed. Arenado has twenty-one home runs, and six of them have come off left-handed pitching in only 112 at-bats. That's the same five-percent clip from the other direction. He's hitting cleanup, and the shape of his August tells you exactly what kind of hitter he is right now: .216 average but an .820 OPS. He is not stringing singles together — he's either making an out or hitting the ball over a wall. That's precisely the profile you want on a plus-money home run ticket rather than a hits prop. Roof closed, 72 degrees, no wind, in a park that plays at 1.06. I'll be straight about the risk: his recent contact quality has been poor, low exit velocity and few barrels, and this is a longshot by definition. But +650 is asking for roughly a thirteen percent chance, and the pitcher-plus-hitter home run rates here both sit above that on their own. That's the gap I'm buying.

GARY'S PICK

NICK LODOLOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -105

I’m betting Lodolo does not finish the sixth inning. He has cleared 16.5 outs only once in his last eight starts and has lasted 4.0, 5.0 and 3.1 innings in three outings since returning from his month-long layoff. His latest start required 91 pitches to record 10 outs. San Francisco’s lineup is depleted, but it still presents six right-handed bats. Righties have produced an .837 OPS against Lodolo, while his heavily used sinker carries a .471 xwOBA. Traffic and pitch count can cash this without the Giants needing an offensive explosion.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN WEBBK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +109

This is not a bet against Webb pitching well. It is a bet on how he normally records outs. He has 112 strikeouts over 141.2 innings and has reached six strikeouts in only two of his last eight starts. His most-used pitch is a sinker with an 8.0% whiff rate, so efficient contact is a major part of his game. Cincinnati’s season-long strikeout rate is the concern, but Webb can control this lineup without missing six bats. Getting plus money on the side that has cashed in six of his last eight starts is enough for me.

GARY'S PICK

JESUS LUZARDOPITCHER OUTS OVER 18.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +155

I’m taking the plus money on Luzardo to record at least one out in the seventh. He has cleared this number in five of his last six starts, owns a 1.95 road ERA and has allowed five earned runs with 30 strikeouts over his last 19.1 innings. Seattle has managed a .217 average and .642 OPS against left-handed starters, and Naylor, Young and Canzone are all out of today’s lineup. Luzardo’s dominant sweeper gives him a reliable way through this right-handed order. The 110 pitches in his previous start add some risk, but +155 is too generous for the form and matchup.

GARY'S PICK

RANDY AROZARENAHITS OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -147

I’m backing Arozarena to break through with one hit. He owns a .288 average and .852 OPS against left-handed pitching, hits second, and has recorded a hit in nine of his last 15 games. His recent results also include six hard-hit balls and two barrels on 18 balls in play. Luzardo has been much more hittable by right-handed batters, allowing them a .253 average and .735 OPS, than by lefties. Arozarena should get four opportunities, which makes -147 playable despite Luzardo’s current form.

GARY'S PICK

RANDY VASQUEZK'S UNDER 3.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -115

Vásquez has topped 3.5 strikeouts only once in his last eight starts and has recorded just five strikeouts over his last 18 innings. This is a contact-oriented arsenal: his cutter carries a 17.2% whiff rate, while the sinker and curveball are both below 10%. Pittsburgh can strike out, but Vásquez has remained under this number even while pitching efficiently and working deep into games. He completed seven innings against Minnesota last time out and still finished with only three strikeouts. At nearly an even price, I want the established shape of his outings.

GARY'S PICK

BUBBA CHANDLERK'S OVER 4.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +118

Chandler has cleared this number in six of his last eight starts, including 16 strikeouts across his last 15 innings. His 98.5 mph fastball sets up a slider and sweeper that both carry whiff rates above 26%, and San Diego's lineup has several bats showing elevated swing-and-miss recently. Jackson Merrill, Freddy Fermin and Jake Cronenworth have recent whiff rates of at least 30%, while Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ty France are all at 24% or higher. Chandler has reached five strikeouts in five of his last six starts, so getting plus money on the same threshold is enough for me.

GARY'S PICK

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -125

I’m betting Rodriguez exits before recording his second out of the sixth. He has cleared this line in only two of his last eight starts, with six outings ending at five innings or earlier. Cleveland can send seven hitters to the left side against a right-hander who has allowed left-handed batters a .302 average and .905 OPS. The Guardians also draw walks and avoid strikeouts well enough to create long innings without needing an immediate offensive eruption. Rodriguez’s recent improvement deserves respect, but his 8.82 home ERA and recurring pitch-count problems make under 16.5 outs the better side at this price.

GARY'S PICK

STEVEN KWANH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -125

Kwan has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games, is 7-for-10 in this series and owns a .353 average in August. The matchup gives that form room to continue: Grayson Rodriguez has allowed left-handed hitters a .302 average and .905 OPS. Kwan’s recent 4% whiff rate and 7% chase rate make him particularly well suited to attack Rodriguez’s vulnerable fastball while also forcing him into the zone. Batting leadoff provides maximum plate appearances, and the hitters directly behind Kwan give him a strong chance to score whenever he reaches. Two hits, or one hit followed by one run, cashes the ticket.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN GUSTOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -116

Gusto has recorded more than 14.5 outs in only two of his last eight starts. He has stopped at 4.0, 4.2 and 4.0 innings in his last three, throwing no more than 70 pitches in any of them. Boston enters averaging 5.8 runs over its last ten games and has enough patient, productive bats to create early traffic. Miami may want length after Tuesday's 11-inning game, but Gusto's established workload makes five completed innings a meaningful ask. At -116, I'm betting he exits before recording his 15th out.

GARY'S PICK

MICKEY GASPERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +100

I'm using the combined market instead of chasing Gasper's home-run streak. He needs only two contributions across hits, runs and RBIs, and he has produced ten hits, five homers and twelve RBIs in 21 at-bats over the last 15 days. The matchup supports another productive night. Gasper owns a .312 average and .948 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Ryan Gusto has allowed a 43.9% hard-hit rate and rarely works deep. Batting fifth also keeps Gasper connected to the heart of Boston's order and a Miami bullpen carrying a 4.75 ERA over its last seven games. Even money is enough for me to take the over.

GARY'S PICK

TANNER GORDONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -121

Gordon has not completed six innings in any of his six starts this season, recording 16 outs or fewer every time. He needed 82 pitches to get through 5.1 innings in his latest start, and Washington can pressure him with four left-handed bats plus a switch-hitter. Lefties have produced a .317 average and .956 OPS against Gordon, while his low strikeout ceiling creates longer innings built around contact. I want the under before he records an out in the sixth.

GARY'S PICK

TJ RUMFIELDSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -118

Rumfield owns a .298 average and .850 OPS against right-handed pitching, and he has recorded a single in eight of his last 15 games. He also reached safely in all three plate appearances against Waldron earlier this season, going 2-for-2 with a walk. Waldron has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .345, and his contact-heavy arsenal gives Rumfield a favorable path to one clean base hit from the cleanup spot.

THE LONG SHOT

MICKEY MONIAKHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +420

I will take the plus price on a matchup Moniak has already handled. He is 2-for-3 with a home run against Waldron, and 18 of his 21 homers this season have come against right-handed pitching. Waldron has allowed a 1.040 OPS to left-handed hitters, with his four-seam carrying a .510 xwOBA. Moniak has also generated a 93.6 mph average exit velocity and ten hard-hit balls in his recent contact sample. With the wind moving out toward center, +420 is enough compensation for the volatility.

GARY'S PICK

PETER LAMBERTPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBHouston Astros· -105

Lambert has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, and this matchup fits the stronger side of his platoon profile. New York is starting seven left-handed hitters, while lefties have batted just .167 with a .533 OPS against Lambert across 234 at-bats. His nine-run outing against the Angels was ugly, but it followed seven consecutive starts of exactly two earned runs and does not outweigh a season of reliable run prevention. With a 2.98 road ERA and nearly even money on the under, I am betting on the larger body of work.

GARY'S PICK

ELMER RODRIGUEZPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -107

Rodríguez has recorded 12, 14, 13 and 12 outs in his four major-league starts. He has yet to complete five innings, and his 11 walks in 17 innings have repeatedly driven up the pitch count. Houston also sends six right-handed hitters against him; righties have batted .350 with an .859 OPS in that limited major-league sample. I do not need a blowup here. Traffic, one extended inning and New York's willingness to use Rodríguez as a spot starter can get him removed before the 15th out.

GARY'S PICK

SPENCER MILESPITCHER OUTS UNDER 6.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -200

I’m betting the assignment, not Miles’ season ERA. Toronto plans to use him as the opener before turning the bulk innings over to Simeon Woods Richardson. Miles has not started in 39 days and worked only one-third of an inning three days ago. He must enter the third and record an out to beat this line, which is a lot to ask from a pitcher being used to begin a bullpen game. The price is heavy, but the defined handoff makes the under worth laying it.

GARY'S PICK

RANDY DOBNAKPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -101

Dobnak has completed more than five innings in only two of his seven starts. He needed 96 pitches to cover four scoreless innings last time, allowing six hits and four walks, and his 1.40 WHIP shows how much traffic he regularly works around. Toronto has several contact-oriented hitters who can extend innings against a pitcher whose primary sinker generates only a 7.6% whiff rate. Dobnak can pitch effectively without recording an out in the sixth, and at nearly even money I’m betting that his pitch count ends the night first.

GARY'S PICK

ROBERT STOCKPITCHER WALKS OVER 2.5

MLBNew York Mets· +132

Stock has issued at least three walks in each of his last three starts, including three in only 4.1 innings in both home outings. Milwaukee averages 4.14 walks per game and sends six left-handed or switch hitters at him. His control has repeatedly driven up the pitch count, but he has still lasted long enough to face the lineup twice. I like getting plus money on another three-walk night.

GARY'S PICK

CARSON BENGEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Mets· +102

Benge has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games and enters tonight hitting .391 with a 1.059 OPS over that span. He went 3-for-4 in the opener and now gets May from the left side, where the matchup is more favorable: left-handed hitters have produced a .751 OPS against May, compared with .601 for righties. Batting cleanup gives Benge multiple paths through hits, runs and RBIs.

GARY'S PICK

AJ SMITH-SHAWVERPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -105

Smith-Shawver has recorded exactly 13 outs in both of his major-league starts this season, throwing 69 and 75 pitches. He now must complete five innings to beat this number, and the Dodgers are a difficult lineup for that step up. They own a .767 OPS against right-handed pitching and draw enough walks to extend innings. The splitter can miss bats, but Smith-Shawver has issued five walks in 8.2 innings and lacks a dependable second offering when hitters stay off it. With Atlanta still managing his workload and possessing a deep bullpen, I expect the hook before he finishes the fifth.

GARY'S PICK

ROKI SASAKIPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -130

Sasaki has held six consecutive opponents to two earned runs or fewer, posting a 2.31 ERA during that stretch. His splitter and slider are the foundation of this bet: both generate strong swing-and-miss rates and have held hitters to a sub-.255 expected wOBA. Atlanta has scored only 2.7 runs per game over its last 10, and several prominent bats enter in poor form. The warm conditions and Sasaki's hittable fastball keep this from being a higher-confidence play, but three earned runs remains a fair amount to demand from this lineup before the Dodgers turn to their bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

RANDAL GRICHUKTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +135

Grichuk is the Chicago bat I want against a left-hander. He owns a .320 average and 1.017 OPS versus lefties, is 10-for-24 with two homers over the last 15 days, and has cleared this number in eight of his last 15 games. Gore has allowed 16 of his 18 home runs to right-handed hitters, and his fly-ball profile carries added risk with warm weather and the wind blowing toward left. At plus money, one extra-base hit is enough.

GARY'S PICK

COREY SEAGERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -106

Seager is 18-for-48 over the last 15 days and has cleared this combination in nine of those 15 games. He is hitting the ball with authority, producing 12 hard-hit balls on 21 recent balls in play, and his second spot in the order gives him multiple ways to get there. Burke has allowed nine earned runs across his last 17⅓ innings, while Texas has scored 18 runs in the first two games of this series. I’ll take Seager to account for at least two hits, runs or RBIs.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL MCGREEVYPITCHER OUTS OVER 15.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -120

McGreevy has recorded at least 16 outs in six of his last eight starts and 18 of 25 starts this season. He has also cleared this line in three straight, throwing between 90 and 102 pitches each time. Baltimore can do damage, but its 9.2 strikeouts per game should give McGreevy some efficient outs, and Busch Stadium helps suppress offense. With the Cardinals' bullpen carrying an 8.89 ERA over its last seven games, I expect St. Louis to give McGreevy every reasonable chance to work through the sixth.

GARY'S PICK

PETE ALONSOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +105

This is bigger than Alonso's four-hit game Tuesday. He is 25-for-51 with six home runs over his last 15 games and has cleared 1.5 total bases in 12 of them. He also owns a .916 OPS against right-handed pitching. McGreevy allows a 42.4% hard-hit rate and 9.8% barrel rate, while his four-seamer and cutter have produced .375 and .480 xwOBA marks. Alonso is seeing the ball too well for me to pass on plus money when one extra-base hit cashes the bet.

GARY'S PICK

CONNOR PRIELIPPPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -110

Prielipp has allowed more than 2.5 earned runs in six of his last eight starts, including 17 runs across his last 16 innings. His August ERA is 8.44, his road ERA is 6.58, and both his command and fastball contact have deteriorated as his workload has climbed. The Athletics counter him with seven right-handed hitters and a switch-hitter. All eight hits Prielipp surrendered in San Diego came from right-handed bats. He handled this club in July, but that was before the current slide. In 97-degree weather at a hitter-friendly park, three earned runs is a fair target at this price.

GARY'S PICK

CONNOR PRIELIPPK'S OVER 5.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -105

Prielipp's run prevention has fallen apart, but the swing-and-miss stuff is still present. He has recorded 20 strikeouts over his last three starts and cleared this line in five of his last eight. His curveball owns a 37.5% whiff rate, while the slider sits at 32.0%. The Athletics average 8.57 strikeouts per game, and their first three hitters have recent whiff rates of 40%, 39% and 31%. That gives Prielipp opportunities immediately and again when the order turns over. I only need six, and he can get there without pitching deep or keeping runs off the board.

Research

145

BULLPENCLE @ LAA
Cleveland Guardians pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Holderman and Cade Smith are both third-day-in-a-row unavailable tonight, which strips Cleveland of its two best relief arms. Sabrowski's the only fresh look out there, so if the Angels keep this close late, Cleveland's leaning on its fourth option, not its best.
BULLPENCIN @ SF
San Francisco Giants pen: 18 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Francisco already burned a long man this week and Seymour's off the board for a third straight day, so the middle innings fall to arms that have already worked twice in this stretch. Walker's fresh for the ninth if the Giants get there with a lead — the question tonight against Cincinnati is whether they do.
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ MIA
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 2nd against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Conine hits right behind Stowers, so Miami gets back-to-back lefty looks at Gray before any matchup move can break it up. Batting second guarantees him multiple looks while the order's still fresh against a pitcher he already turns into hard contact.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
BULLPENBOS @ MIA
Miami Marlins pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Ekness, Gibson and Zuber all worked both of the last two days, and seven of Miami's eight relievers have been used multiple times in this stretch. There's no clean, rested arm left for a save spot tonight, so I expect Boston to see some softer pitches late.
TEAM RECORDTEX @ CHW
Rangers 7-1 in MacKenzie Gore's last 8 starts
Rangers are 7-1 behind him because the whole team shows up when he starts — sharp defense, a pen that holds leads, enough offense. Nothing about taking that on the road to Chicago tonight changes the formula.
HEAT CHECKBAL @ STL
Pete Alonso: 1.418 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alonso's a .860 hitter for the year, so 1.418 over two weeks isn't some hot streak against nobody — it's a great bat getting even better. Thirty bombs says the pop is real, and 1.5 total bases is a low bar for him tonight.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFTB @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .281 OPS in Last 15 Days
This is the steepest fade in the group and it's gone on long enough that it isn't noise — something's off in the swing, not just tough luck on balls in play. I'm off him against Tampa Bay until he shows he can catch up to a fastball again.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ LAA
Guardians are 6-1 vs Angels this season
Six wins in seven says Cleveland's just been the better team here, full stop. That 8-6 finale was a shootout though, so it's the offense carrying this series, not one pitching staff — and offense travels fine on the road.
TEAM RECORDCHC @ ARI
Diamondbacks 6-1 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 7 starts
Diamondbacks are 6-1 in his starts because the lineup and the pen are both locked in with him on the mound, not because of one or two big nights. Hosting the Cubs keeps Arizona right in the building where that rhythm keeps showing up.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ LAA
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), batting 5th
Fifth is a protection spot, the place a lineup wants a bat locked in once the top of the order's had its turn. Lowe's split against right-handers is a lot better than his blended season line lets on, and that matchup landing right there tonight is built to turn into runs.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
STREAKKC @ TOR
KC have won 9 straight
Plus-25 across nine straight wins works out to nearly three runs a night of separation — that's a team winning comfortably, not sneaking through one-run games. One road night in Toronto isn't the kind of test that ends a run like this.
P team lost 0-3
STREAKBAL @ STL
STL games have gone OVER 6 straight
These STL games have been running nearly five runs over what the number projected, and tonight's total barely moves off that mark. Until the line actually catches up to the pace, I'm taking the over again.
P final total 15 vs 8.5
PLATOON EDGETEX @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Grichuk in the three-hole against a lefty is about as clean an alignment as you get — a real platoon edge sitting in the spot most likely to have runners on ahead of him. Gore has to face that matchup essentially every time up tonight, not just once late.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Kyle Bradish (RHP)
Third against a righty is the highest-traffic early spot in the order, right where the top two are supposed to have already put someone on. Burleson's a left-handed bat plenty comfortable against right-handed pitching, so that edge shows up from the first inning and keeps showing up all game.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ CHW
Brandon Nimmo: .347 OPS in Last 15 Days
This slump's run long enough now that it reads as real, not a rough week — when the gap from his own level stays this wide this long, the swing's probably lost something. I need to see him drive one with real conviction in Chicago before trusting him near the top of that order again.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
BALLPARKCLE @ LAA
Grayson Rodriguez's ERA jumps to 8.82 at Angel Stadium
Eight starts and a .321 average against at Angel Stadium is too big a sample to wave off — hitters aren't running into a couple mistakes there, they're squaring him up regularly. He's right back in that yard tonight, and traffic and hard contact are the expectation, not the tidier version of him he shows everywhere else.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
TEAM RECORDCLE @ LAA
Angels 2-6 in Grayson Rodriguez's last 8 starts
Angels are leaving him out to dry more nights than not — not scoring early, not holding what little cushion he gets. Hosting Cleveland tonight, Los Angeles needs a very different formula than the one that's shown up behind him all year.
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ DET
Tigers are 5-1 vs Rays this season
Five of six with the only loss buried in there and a clean finale — that's a real grip on a team, not a fluky record. Tampa Bay heading back into Detroit tonight doesn't change anything that's made this one-sided.
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ SEA
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper third against a righty puts the platoon edge exactly where a lineup wants it, right behind two hitters whose job is getting on base ahead of him. Woo has to work through the middle of the order fully exposed to it tonight, with no way to plan around it.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ WSH
Matt Waldron: 7.54 ERA vs 3.75 xERA
A 6.3% barrel rate has no business producing a 7.54 ERA — that gap is bad luck and shaky defense, not diminished stuff. Tonight's a fair spot to expect the runs allowed to finally start looking like his peripherals.
P 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
PLATOON EDGEKC @ TOR
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 5th against Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Fifth is where a lineup wants a bat cashing in whatever the top of the order leaves on base, and Sanchez sits there fully favorable against a righty tonight. That's role and matchup lining up clean, not just a guy occupying a spot.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKMIN @ OAK
Lawrence Butler: 1.068 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .681 season line means the real Butler sits well below what he's shown the last two weeks, so something in the approach has genuinely clicked. Eleven homers says there's real thump to fall back on, and 1.5 total bases is the number to attack tonight.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKPIT @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.220 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .807 season already puts him near the top of the league, so jumping to 1.220 over two weeks looks like a great hitter getting locked in, not a soft schedule. Seventeen homers backs up the power, and 1.5 total bases is a number he clears without needing his best night.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDCOL @ WSH
Rockies 2-6 in Tanner Gordon's last 8 starts
Colorado's in a real spiral on his turns — no runs when he needs them, no cushion for the pen — and that's the team showing up in Washington tonight, mid-slide.
TEAM RECORDBAL @ STL
Cardinals 6-2 in Michael McGreevy's last 8 starts
Four in a row shows St. Louis has strung together real form on his start days, everything clicking around him too. Hosting Baltimore, they get to protect that streak at home instead of extend it elsewhere.
TEAM RECORDLAD @ ATL
Dodgers 6-2 in Roki Sasaki's last 8 starts
6-2 like that points to the Dodgers playing complete baseball behind him, not just hoping the bats show up. That's the formula they want to run back on the road in Atlanta.
TEAM RECORDKC @ TOR
Blue Jays 6-2 in Spencer Miles's last 8 starts
Four wins running means Toronto's locked into a real groove on his start days, the whole team elevating with him. They get to defend that at home tonight instead of chase it on the road.
TEAM RECORDBOS @ MIA
Red Sox 6-2 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
Boston plays its most complete baseball on his starts — sound defense, timely hits, a pen that isn't leaned on to cover mistakes. That group boards the trip to Miami tonight, same approach, different city.
TEAM RECORDCIN @ SF
Reds 2-6 in Nick Lodolo's last 8 starts
Something breaks down for Cincinnati on his turns — bats go cold, the pen ends up doing more than it should. That's the group traveling to San Francisco tonight, and nothing here says it looks any different.
TEAM RECORDCIN @ SF
Giants 2-6 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts
That 2-6 mark isn't bad luck, the whole lineup goes quiet when he starts — that's the offense folding around him, not missing a few hits here and there. Hosting Cincinnati tonight, somebody in that San Francisco lineup needs to finally break the pattern.
TEAM RECORDTB @ DET
Tigers 6-2 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts
Detroit's handing him a real cushion most nights — comfortable early offense, clean defense behind him, not just a blowout or two skewing the record. Hosting Tampa Bay tonight, the Tigers get to lean on that same support at home.
HEAT CHECKTEX @ CHW
Tristan Peters: 1.235 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ten home runs already this year says the pop behind this stretch is legitimate, not empty contact against soft arms. He's a threat in any at-bat right now — a name to build around tonight, not fade.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB
BULLPENHOU @ NYY
New York Yankees pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Only six arms have carried this pen through three games, and De los Santos, Hanner and Cruz are all sitting on heavy pitch counts from just this stretch. Headrick's shut down for a third straight day, so Blackburn and Yarbrough are the freshest options if New York needs length early against Houston.
BULLPENTEX @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 17.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
This is the one pen in the group with nobody coming off a back-to-back — Fedde already ate four innings of bulk relief and Hudson's fresh off a 14-pitch look. Chicago can go deep into this pen tonight against Texas without a third-day workload cutting anyone off.
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ MIA
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Sonny Gray (RHP), batting 1st
Leading off against a righty gets Stowers a leadoff hitter's usual share of looks at the exact hand where his numbers separate hardest — his season line undersells it since it's dragged down by how he hits lefties. With Conine right behind him holding the same edge, the top of this order is stacked lefty against Gray from the first pitch.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ SEA
Cal Raleigh: 1.090 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .618 season mark tells you Raleigh has real cold spells, so this stretch is his timing finally catching up to power that was already there. Seventeen homers proves the pop, and 0.5 total bases is about as easy as these get right now.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKTEX @ CHW
Miguel Vargas: 1.240 OPS in Last 15 Days
Vargas was already having an .854 season with 29 bombs, so this two-week surge reads like more of an already-rolling year, not a sudden spike. That kind of power makes 1.5 total bases a modest ask tonight.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMHOU @ NYY
Peter Lambert: 8.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
This is a command breakdown, not bad luck — the walks and hard contact have piled up fast enough to erase what used to be a respectable season line. I want the Yankees sitting on pitches to drive tonight rather than working deep counts against him.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
PLATOON EDGETB @ DET
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Troy Melton (RHP)
Hicks hits cleanup for a reason — he's a legitimately different hitter against right-handed pitching over a full season, and Melton throwing right-handed tonight hands him exactly that look. No platoon cushion for Detroit here.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ SEA
Alec Bohm: 1.068 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .689 season line makes this stretch a real spike, not an already-great hitter getting hotter — something's clicked the last two weeks. Fourteen homers is enough pop to clear 0.5 total bases, and right now he's a hitter I want in the lineup, not against it.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFCOL @ WSH
Jake McCarthy: .475 OPS in Last 15 Days
Enough at-bats have piled up here that this isn't a blip anymore — the contact quality's likely slipped right along with the results. I'm leaning away from him in that Washington lineup tonight until it turns.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
STREAKLAD @ ATL
ATL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
These ATL games have been running about three runs under the total for five straight, but tonight's number jumps nearly a full run higher than that average. The pattern's still on the under's side, it's just working against a tougher line now.
P final total 11 vs 8.5
STREAKBOS @ MIA
BOS have won 5 straight
Plus-10 over five games is a couple runs a night, solid but these have been competitive wins, not blowouts. The 8-2 mark over their last ten shows this is the latest chapter of a longer good run, not a one-week number due to come back down.
P team lost 0-4
CUT LISTSF tonight
Buddy Kennedy
Kennedy's in the Giants' cleanup spot again tonight, but a .132 average and a .408 OPS out of a four-hole bat is an automatic out more often than not. Lineup trust from the manager doesn't turn empty at-bats into production, and there's no season-long math where this roster spot is worth defending over literally churning the wire. Cut him.
COOLING OFFPIT @ SD
Spencer Horwitz: .343 OPS in Last 15 Days
Shorter window here, so some of this is still just variance rather than a broken swing. Still real enough that I want to see him barrel a couple of balls before trusting him — fade him in this tough San Diego spot until it shows up.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
BULLPENHOU @ NYY
Houston Astros pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Hader and Okert are both on a third straight day, and losing your closer to that spot is the headline — Houston's ninth inning is a real question mark tonight. With New York's pen just as taxed on the other side, a tight game late could push both managers past their first-choice arms.
HEAT CHECKCHC @ ARI
Alex Bregman: 1.085 OPS in Last 15 Days
This is the smallest jump in the group relative to his own level, and that's the point in his favor — a .763 hitter running hot isn't an outlier, it's just a good player playing like himself. Nineteen homers backs the pop, and at 1.5 total bases, he's the steady lean of the night.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONKC @ TOR
Randy Dobnak: 1.58 ERA vs 4.74 xERA
Missing bats at 5.7 per nine while allowing hard contact 40.8% of the time isn't how you sustain a 1.58 ERA — the balls in play have been finding gloves more than they should. I'm betting against this number holding up tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
COOLING OFFBOS @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .496 OPS in Last 15 Days
Modest dip stretched over a long enough window that it looks more like hard-luck outs than anything mechanical. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt tonight rather than fade him.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFPHI @ SEA
Cole Young: .402 OPS in Last 15 Days
This is the shallowest drop in the group, and with this much of a sample already banked, it reads like results lagging behind still-solid contact. I'd treat him as a buy-low piece against Philadelphia tonight, not a fade.
COOLING OFFCOL @ WSH
Mickey Moniak: .484 OPS in Last 15 Days
The season-long level backing him up is strong enough that a rough two weeks doesn't erase it, and this window's short enough to turn fast. I wouldn't be surprised to see him snap out of it tonight.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFLAD @ ATL
Kyle Tucker: .345 OPS in Last 15 Days
Short enough window that I'm not calling this a broken swing, but there's less season-long cushion here than some of the other cold bats tonight. Real pitching test in Atlanta — I'd fade him in anything needing extra-base pop until better contact shows up.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
COOLING OFFCIN @ SF
Elly De La Cruz: .580 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Webb
That's a real fade, but 64 plate appearances is enough sample to call it a quiet two weeks, not a broken swing. Webb doesn't do him any favors either since righties have limited him more than lefties all season — matchup problem, not a mechanical one.
P 3-for-6, 4 TB
COOLING OFFHOU @ NYY
Christian Walker: .392 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Elmer Rodriguez
Forty plate appearances is about as thin as a sample gets — rough patch, not a swing issue. Tonight doesn't offer relief either, since righties have been his tougher matchup all year, so expect more of the same rather than a turnaround.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Nick Lodolo
Lodolo isn't getting hosed by bad luck — he's being graded honestly and failing. A 5.04 ERA already stings in a season-long format, but a 6.49 xERA is the real tell: the process behind that number is closer to a run and a half worse than what's shown up in the box score. That's not a guy due for better fortune, that's a guy who's been fortunate it isn't worse already. He's on the mound again tonight, and I don't need to see how a 'true talent' start looks for him right now. Cut. Don't wait for tonight's start to make the case stronger.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHC @ ARI
Cubs are 5-2 vs Diamondbacks this season
Five of seven says Chicago's owned the bigger picture, but Arizona taking that last one-run finale shows they can hang late even down in the series. Hosting tonight, that recent competitiveness matters more than the season mark.
COOLING OFFTEX @ CHW
Munetaka Murakami: .610 OPS in L15 — draws LHP MacKenzie Gore
This dip's on the milder side, and 54 trips is a short enough window to call it a quiet couple weeks rather than a broken stroke. The tougher piece is the matchup — lefties have given him more trouble, and Gore adds a real obstacle on top of a slump that isn't even the alarming kind.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMMIN @ OAK
Connor Prielipp: 9.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
No flattering season number to hide behind here — the year-long line was already shaky, and this stretch just confirms who he is. I'd expect traffic almost every time through the order tonight.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
CLOSER WATCHCHC @ ARI
Brandyn Garcia / Kevin Ginkel
Garcia's nominally on top, 4 saves to Ginkel's 2, but 14 holds next to Ginkel's 11 tells you Arizona still mixes and matches late. Diamondbacks are only -104 on the Cubs at home, basically a coin flip, so I'm not expecting a stacked save chance tonight. Garcia's fresh off just one outing in the last three games, so he's ready if the ninth does come up. Thin committee plus a near pick'em game is a shaky combo for saves. Garcia's the hold if you've got him, but I wouldn't chase this pen this week.
CLOSER WATCHCIN @ SF
Ryan Walker / Dylan Smith
Walker and Smith are dead even at 3 saves apiece, and Smith's actually piled up more holds lately, 7 to 3, so the trend line isn't clearly Walker's. Giants are -110 on the Reds, another coin-flip favorite, and both arms are fully rested off just one outing in the last three games. True 50/50 committee, I'm not banking saves on either name off tonight's game. If you're forced to speculate, Smith's the one trending up, but treat it as a low-confidence flier.
HEAT CHECKCHC @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: 1.152 OPS in Last 15 Days
Carroll was already having a strong season before this stretch, so the jump plays as a good player getting better, not weak contact getting lucky. With that speed-power combo rolling, 0.5 total bases tonight is a comfortable number for him to clear.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TOMORROWCOL @ WSH
Gabriel Hughes: 6.54 ERA vs 3.46 xERA
A barrel rate under 5% has nothing to do with a 6.54 ERA — that's poor luck on contact, not hittable stuff. His next time out looks like better value than that ugly line on the surface suggests.
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/24
Tyler Glasnow
Two starts on paper, but the Braves half is already played by the time this posts — what's actually live is Sunday at the Tigers. A 2.49 xERA is the best mark in this whole set, easily, so one clean look the rest of the way is still plenty of signal. Locked-in start — best arm in the group, even on just the one remaining turn.
CLOSER WATCHBAL @ STL
Ryan Helsley / Andrew Kittredge
Helsley's the cleanest closer look of this group, 8 saves and no holds attached to his line, while Kittredge's 6 saves and 9 holds says he's doing the setup lifting instead. Orioles are -104 at St. Louis, not a huge number, but Helsley hasn't pitched in three games, he's fully rested and first in line if Baltimore needs the ninth. My favorite save target of this group tonight, most saves on the board, a real gap over the next man, and a fresh arm. If you're streaming for saves this week, start here.
BULLPENCOL @ WSH
Colorado Rockies pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nine arms have shared the work, but nobody's been forced into true back-to-back duty, so there's more life in this pen than the innings total suggests. Washington's better path tonight is grinding out at-bats early rather than waiting on a bullpen that isn't really gassed.
STREAKMIL @ NYM
MIL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
About two and a half runs of separation between the number and what these MIL games have actually produced, and tonight's total sits almost exactly where it's been the whole stretch. The under just has to keep doing what it's already done four straight times.
P final total 9 vs 7.5
CUT LISTSEA tonight
Patrick Wisdom
Wisdom's hitting fifth for Seattle tonight and somehow has the uglier line of the group — .122 average, .401 OPS. A five-hole at-bat is just more outs at that rate. Nothing about tonight's lineup slot changes what the season-long numbers already say. Cut him.
STREAKBAL @ STL
STL have lost 4 straight
Minus-24 over four games is six runs a night — that's getting run off the field, not losing close ones. Back those out and the rest of their last ten was a winning stretch, so this reads like a sudden collapse with nothing tonight pointing to a turnaround.
P team lost 8-7
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Christian Moore
Moore's cleanup at-bats and .483 OPS/.167 average are the 'best' of this trio, but that's grading on a curve — a cleanup hitter still means an out most of the time right now. He's at least playing every day in a run-producing spot, so if your bench is deep you can ride it one more week, but the moment a real option opens up, he's gone too. Cut — lowest priority of the three, but still a cut.
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 8/24
Payton Tolle
The Marlins start Tuesday is already in the books. All that's left is Sunday on the road against the Yankees. 2.7 xERA on the season is elite-tier production — I've got nothing on that Yankees lineup beyond the team name, so this is valued purely on the arm. Start — the skill level covers for the unknown on the other side.
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/24
Braxton Ashcraft
Here's where the calendar bites you: the pitch on this arm was always the double-dip, Monday at the Padres and Sunday at the Cardinals both being streamable. Monday's already spent, so half the value is gone before you even make the call. Only Sunday at St. Louis is left, backed by a 3.41 xERA. Don't chase this for 'two-start' value anymore — that case is half-dead. With a bench spot and a need for one Sunday arm, it's a fine, unspectacular stream, but not a priority waiver add at this point in the week.
STARTER FORMPHI @ SEA
Bryan Woo: 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Three straight starts of missing more bats and barely letting anything score — that's not one lucky night, that's stuff playing up right now. Tough draw for Philadelphia's lineup tonight regardless of what the season line says.
P 4 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
PLATOON EDGETB @ DET
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Dingler's built backwards — he does his real damage against same-side pitching — so Peralta going right-handed tonight is the good matchup for him, not the tough one. I like him staying productive out of the five-hole.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 8/24
Ranger Suarez
Same road trip as his rotation-mate — Marlins then Yankees — but this one went Monday instead of Tuesday, so that start is already done. Only Sunday at the Yankees remains, and at 3.62 xERA this is the shakiest number in the whole set, which is exactly why it's tiered STREAM_BOTH instead of PLAN_AROUND. The two-start stream case is already cut in half since you missed Monday. For Sunday alone, this is a bench-and-watch, only-if-desperate stream — not a confident pickup.
HR THREATRockies @ Nationals
Mickey Moniak
Gary's Take I will take the plus price on a matchup Moniak has already handled. He is 2-for-3 with a home run against Waldron, and 18 of his 21 homers this season have come against right-handed pitching.
P 0 HR — 0-for-5, 0 TB, 1 BB
UPCOMING GAMESNFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 9
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
HR THREATCubs @ Diamondbacks
Nolan Arenado
Gary's Take Boyd's damage arrives in the air. Eight of his last thirteen runs allowed came on home runs, and eleven days ago he surrendered four in a single start at Wrigley.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADPHI @ SEA
Mariners are 2-0 vs Phillies this season
Two games is a snapshot, not a trend — Seattle winning both comfortably is nice to know but it's two data points. Hosting tonight doesn't turn that into anything sturdier.
HEAD-TO-HEADBOS @ MIA
Red Sox are 2-0 vs Marlins this season
Two meetings and a comfortable 7-3 finale say Boston's had the better of it, but that's thin enough to read as a snapshot. Miami hosting tonight doesn't hand anything back on its own.
HEAD-TO-HEADLAD @ ATL
Braves are 3-1 vs Dodgers this season
Three of four including a one-run finale means Atlanta's beaten the Dodgers in a tight ballgame, not just padded a record. That's a sturdier signal, and they get to build on it at home tonight.
TWO STARTSCleveland Guardians — week of 8/24
Parker Messick
Monday's Angels start already happened. He's down to one turn — Saturday at home against the Royals. 2.91 xERA on the year, and getting the remaining start at home instead of on the road is the only edge I can point to here. Start with confidence — strong number, home turn.
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · AUG 29
BDL lists 6 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 6 kickoff times are confirmed.
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/24
Paul Skenes
Tuesday's Padres start already happened. Sunday at the Cardinals is the only turn left on the schedule. 3.12 xERA on the season, right in the middle of this group, still comfortably plan-around territory. Start — one turn, but the profile's good enough to trust it alone.
STARTER FORMCLE @ LAA
Grayson Rodriguez: 3.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
The swing-and-miss numbers stand out across his last three starts and the baserunner rate's tightened up well below his full-season pace. If tonight's number is still anchored to that ugly year-long line, the gap between what he's actually doing and what the market assumes is the opportunity.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/24
Zack Wheeler
Monday at the Mariners is done. One start left: Saturday on the road at the Angels. 3.03 xERA keeps him solidly in this tier even as a one-start play the rest of the week. Start — the number holds up on a single look.
TWO STARTSCincinnati Reds — week of 8/24
Chase Burns
The Giants start Monday is already gone. One left: Saturday on the road at the Cubs. 3.17 xERA on the season is enough to keep him in this tier even down to a single start. Start — still clears the bar on the one turn that's left.
TWO STARTSTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/24
Drew Rasmussen
Monday at the Tigers is already played. What's left is Saturday at home against the Padres. 3.14 xERA on the year — the home start for his remaining turn is the one small plus I've got to work with. Start — home turn, season number still checks out.
REGRESSIONCHC @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.61 ERA vs 4.59 xERA
An 8% barrel rate is too rich for a sub-3.00 ERA, and the .237 he's actually allowed against a .264 expected mark shows some batted-ball luck propping this up. The results have outpaced the process here, and that combination tends to invite some give-back.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
REGRESSIONHOU @ NYY
Elmer Rodriguez: 2.61 ERA vs 4.59 xERA
A 1.76 WHIP next to a 2.61 ERA is the real story — that much traffic should already be bleeding runs, and an 8% barrel rate says the contact he's allowing has real thump behind it. It doesn't take much of a sequencing shift against Houston tonight to send that ERA the other way.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/24
Kyle Harrison
Tuesday at the Mets already happened. He's got one turn left — Sunday at home against the Rangers. 3.24 xERA is the highest number of these eight, so among this group he's the one I trust least, even with the home start working in his favor. Startable, but the first one I'd cut if you need to trim this group down to fewer arms.
REGRESSIONBAL @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 3.54 ERA vs 5.31 xERA
A 42.4% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate near 10% is a loud-contact profile that normally shows up in the results, not hidden behind a .251 average against a .280 expected mark. Low strikeout stuff paired with that much hard contact is a tough combination to keep outrunning — I like the regression to hit sooner rather than later.
P 5 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONTB @ DET
Chandler Simpson: .308 AVG vs .256 xBA
Simpson's average has outrun his expected number for over 500 plate appearances now, that's not a hot streak, that's a legitimate hit tool that keeps beating the expected line. I'd trust the actual average again against Tampa Bay tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Hector Rodriguez
Hector Rodriguez is your leadoff man in Cincinnati and he's giving you a .182 average and a .561 OPS — that's a black hole at the top of a lineup, not a table-setter. There's no floor here: no power number, no average to speak of, nothing propping up the line. A leadoff spot with this little production isn't matchup-proof, it's just bad every night, including tonight. Cut him. A sub-.600 OPS leadoff bat has no redeeming stat to hang a roster spot on — even in the lineup tonight, he's replacement-level or worse.
STARTER FORMCIN @ SF
Nick Lodolo: 7.30 ERA over his last 3 starts
No cushion of a clean season number here — the walks and hits are piling up even faster than an already-shaky pace, and the runs have come in bunches. That's a green light for San Francisco to jump on him early before he ever settles in.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
PARK WEATHERTEX @ CHW
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Rate Field tonight
Rate Field already plays short and now you've got an 11 mph wind pushing straight out to left. Balls that die on the track tonight leave the yard instead — I like the over at 8 here, and this kind of air helps both lineups equally.
P final total 14 vs 8 (over lean)
STARTER FORMCHC @ ARI
Matthew Boyd: 6.38 ERA over his last 3 starts
His baserunner rate barely moved off the season pace, so this isn't a sudden command issue — it's that the contact he's allowing has turned a lot more damaging, extra bases instead of singles. That's a mistake-pitch problem, and Arizona's lineup should do damage tonight if he leaves one over the plate.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Michael McGreevy
On the surface, a 3.54 ERA is a usable, startable number in most season-long formats. But the estimator says 5.31 — a gap of nearly two full runs, the widest split of the three arms in this piece. That kind of daylight between what happened and what should have happened is the classic sign of a pitcher getting help from something other than his own stuff. When it corrects, and gaps this size usually do, that ERA is walking backward in a hurry. Hold for one more turn — you don't bench a good line to satisfy a model. But he's on the shortest leash on your roster, and tonight's start is the test.
REGRESSIONPIT @ SD
Esmerlyn Valdez: .249 AVG vs .202 xBA
Valdez is running ahead of his expected numbers in both average and power at the same time, which tells me this is one hot stretch showing up everywhere rather than a real level-up. 247 plate appearances isn't enough to trust the .249 — I'd bet on the .202 profile showing up before it does.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ DET
Troy Melton: 1.7 ERA vs 3.22 xERA
A 1.00 WHIP, 7.6 strikeouts per nine and a 6% barrel rate are legitimately good-pitcher numbers, not results running hot. Of everything on the board tonight, this is one of the safer lines to trust at face value.
P 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/26
Carter Baumler
Ribs put him on the 60-day, and today is the date the transaction wire lists for his return — that's a roster note, not a confirmed activation. Whenever Texas does flip the switch, he brings a 3.18 ERA back with him. Stash if you've got the IL space. That ERA plays and the timeline's as tight as it gets on this board — just don't cut for him before he's actually activated.
CLOSER WATCHTEX @ CHW
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Taylor's built the biggest lead of the four, 7 saves and 10 holds, but he's also the one with mileage, two outings in the last three games and he threw again yesterday. Hudson's right behind at 5 saves and 8 holds. White Sox are -124 on the Rangers, the largest favorite tonight of these four games, so a save chance is live, the question is whether Taylor's arm is the one available for it. Good save environment on paper, but the workload is a real flag after that heavy usage. I'd handcuff Hudson before trusting Taylor blind this week.
STARTER FORMTEX @ CHW
MacKenzie Gore: 2.12 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-one strikeouts over his last three starts while the WHIP actually tightens up is the harder combination to fake — that's not a fluky hot stretch. The market's still pricing off that 4.26 season number, and tonight's lineup is walking into a pitcher clearly outrunning his own tag.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
REGRESSIONCIN @ SF
Nick Lodolo: 5.04 ERA vs 6.49 xERA
Even the fairer read on this season is ugly — a 39.9% hard-hit rate and a near-.300 average against say hitters are squaring him up regularly. There's no version of the contact quality here that makes tonight's start appealing to lean on.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
FANTASY PICKUPSLAD @ ATL
Freddie Freeman
Freeman's a steady .829 OPS, .299 average bat, and tonight he lines up against AJ Smith-Shawver, who's been rough (5.75 xERA). Hitting in the 2-hole means more pitches seen and more chances to cash in. Everyone starts him — he's rostered in 100% of leagues, this is just your green light for tonight.
PARK WEATHERCIN @ SF
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Oracle Park blowing out to center is the wind report I actually pay attention to — this is the hardest park in the league to hit one out normally, so any inversion matters more here than anywhere else. Fly balls that die at the track have a real shot tonight. Give me the over at 8.
P final total 19 vs 8 (over lean)
REGRESSIONMIN @ OAK
Connor Prielipp: 5.57 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
The strikeout stuff is real at 9.7 per nine, well beyond what a 5.57 ERA suggests, but a 41.8% hard-hit rate means this isn't purely bad luck either. I'd play the strikeout prop tonight over betting his runs allowed to clean up.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
FANTASY PICKUPSCIN @ SF
Turner Hill
The season numbers are shaky — .707 OPS, .222 average — but Nick Lodolo's struggles (6.49 xERA) make tonight a soft landing spot, and hitting 5th gives Hill RBI chances if he connects. Streaming play for shallow-to-medium leagues that need a body tonight — start him for the matchup, not the track record.
PARK WEATHERKC @ TOR
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Rogers Centre tonight
Rogers Centre needs still air to play fair, and a 10 mph wind out to left takes that away. Total's sitting at 8.5 and I think this kind of push gets it there for either side.
P final total 3 vs 8.5 (over lean)
REGRESSIONTB @ DET
Freddy Peralta: 5.33 ERA vs 4.11 xERA
An 8.6 strikeout rate and a 6.3% barrel rate are quality-starter marks that don't match a 5.33 ERA — hitters haven't squared him up enough to justify this line. Better spot for him tonight than the season number lets on.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
BULLPENBAL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Ryan Fernandez has done the heavy lifting, going deep twice, while everyone else has mostly been used just once — that's a pen with more depth than the innings total suggests. Baltimore isn't walking into a tired bullpen tonight, so any edge has to come from the lineup, not fatigue.
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ WSH
Nationals are 3-2 vs Rockies this season
Nearly even at 3-2, with Colorado taking the last one despite trailing in the series — that's a matchup that's gone back and forth, not settled into a trend. Nothing about Washington hosting tonight tips it either way.
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ SD
Pirates are 3-2 vs Padres this season
A 3-2 mark over five games is close enough to even that it hasn't set a real identity here. The 1-0 finale says more about one night's arms than who owns this series.
CUT LISTCHC tonight
Matthew Boyd
No fireworks here, just bad math that agrees with itself. A 4.15 ERA already isn't getting it done in most season-long leagues, and a 5.01 xERA backs it up rather than contradicting it — the smallest gap of the three names here. That means this isn't a guy getting unlucky and due for a correction upward into usefulness. This is just who he is right now. Cut. The numbers agree with each other, and neither one is good.
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ SF
Reds are 5-4 vs Giants this season
Nine meetings in and it's still 5-4 — that's real volume telling you this is a coin flip, not a small sample dressed up as one. Last time out went 10-9, so don't expect a pitchers' duel tonight either. San Francisco's got the yard, but I'm not paying up for a home edge in a series this even.
RETURN WATCHBOS — return listed 8/28
Roman Anthony
Finger injury, 60-day IL, listed to return in two days. The only number on his 2026 ledger is a .675 OPS. Speculative hold, not a priority add — a .675 OPS gives you no urgency. Deep-league stash or bench-space luxury only.
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 8/28
Jake Fraley
Groin issue, 60-day IL, two days out on the listed return. His line this year sits at a .690 OPS. Low-priority stash — fine to roster if the spot's free, but the bat isn't forcing anyone's hand.
STARTER FORMBOS @ MIA
Ryan Gusto: 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts
The 4.37 ERA on the board isn't who's pitching tonight. Gusto's allowed four earned runs across his last three starts with his WHIP actually under his season number — that's a pitcher who's genuinely tightened up, not one running hot. Miami's catching him in a real groove.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
STARTER FORMMIL @ NYM
Dustin May: 6.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Fourteen hits and ten earned runs in three starts works out to nearly a hit an inning, and that's not one bad outing, that's a trend. May's season ERA is now more than a run cheaper than what he's actually pitching to right now. I want the bats against this version of him.
P 0.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ TOR
Spencer Miles
The ERA and xERA line up almost exactly here — 3.02 to 3.01 — so this isn't a mirage, it's who he is right now. An 8.2 K/9 and a tidy 1.10 WHIP against KC gives you a start you can actually lean on. STREAM tier means everybody should be looking — grab him in shallow and standard leagues alike before he's gone.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/29
Joe Mantiply
Knee injury, 60-day IL, three days from the listed return. A 2.04 ERA is the number waiting on him. Stash. That ERA is the best on this sheet and the return date is close enough to bank a roster spot on.
RUNNING GAMECLE @ LAA
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Tyler Heineman (37% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cleveland lives on pressuring the bases, but Heineman's caught over a third of the runners who've tested him — that's a number that should make them think twice tonight. I expect the Guardians to pick their spots instead of running freely, which takes away a piece of how they usually score.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 1 base
STARTER FORMTEX @ CHW
Sean Burke: 4.67 ERA over his last 3 starts
Burke's WHIP actually dropped in this stretch — the traffic's under control. The problem is whatever he's allowing is doing damage, with his ERA running over a full run above his season mark because of it. This lineup doesn't need to string hits together against him, just find the one pitch to drive.
P 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
FANTASY PICKUPSLAD @ ATL
Tommy Edman
Edman's a solid .741 OPS, .266 average bat who also draws the plus matchup tonight against a struggling AJ Smith-Shawver (5.75 xERA). Batting 5th, he's got runners to drive in if the matchup breaks right. Start him in shallow-to-medium leagues — good matchup at a position you can use.
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ LAA
Jose Ramirez
Ramirez's line is down from what you expect — .721 OPS, .240 average — but a matchup against a struggling Grayson Rodriguez (5.78 xERA) is a real chance to get right. Batting 3rd, he'll see plenty of pitches to hit. He's not a real 'add' anywhere — he's rostered universally — but if he's somehow on your deep-league wire, grab him immediately.
FIRST INNINGCIN @ SF
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of CIN @ SF
Roupp and Lodolo have both been genuinely tough in the first inning all year, so that first-inning under is a bet on the aces pitching like themselves rather than the way these two offenses have hit early lately. If either looks like himself tonight, this stays scoreless early and the fight shifts to whichever bullpen wears down first.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
PARK WEATHERBAL @ STL
92° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
Busch usually swallows fly balls with those deep gaps, but heat and a wind pushing to right both work against the park tonight. 8.5 already expects offense, and the conditions clear a path to get there for both sides.
P final total 15 vs 8.5 (over lean)
CLOSER WATCHCLE @ LAA
Samy Natera Jr. / Ben Joyce
Natera and Joyce are tied at 3 saves each — no separation there — though Natera's ahead on holds, 4 to 1. Neither's pitched in LAA's last three games, so both are fully rested with nothing recent to read into. Bigger problem: LAA's a +124 underdog at home to Cleveland, which knocks down the odds a save chance even shows up tonight. Lowest priority of the four this week — a muddled committee behind a team that keeps landing on the wrong side of the number. Only a speculative stash if you've got deep bench space.
FANTASY PICKUPSPHI @ SEA
Bryan Woo
Woo's the buy-low here — a 4.10 ERA running nearly a half-run worse than his 3.56 xERA, next to the best strikeout rate on this list at 8.9 K/9 and a sharp 1.08 WHIP. The results just haven't caught up to the stuff yet. DEEP-league stash — get in before the ERA starts drifting down toward that xERA vs PHI.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ DET
Troy Melton
A 1.70 ERA is the shiniest number on this board, but a 3.22 xERA says it's running hot — that's the widest ERA-to-xERA gap in the group. The 1.00 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 are legit, so there's one more good look left vs TB before the correction hits. DEEP-league speculative add only — ride it in season-long deep formats now, don't bank on 1.70 sticking.
PARK WEATHERCLE @ LAA
92° at Angel Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
Wind's nothing tonight at 4 mph, but 92 degrees does the work on its own — thin air carries fly balls those extra few feet. Total's only 7.5, and warm air like this makes that number easy to clear.
P final total 7 vs 7.5 (over lean)
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ NYY
Peter Lambert
Lambert's 3.68 ERA and 3.44 xERA are close enough that this is his true level — solid 8.8 K/9, but the 1.20 WHIP is the highest of the four and the one thing holding this profile back. DEEP-league add only, and I'd want the WHIP tighter before trusting him anywhere shallower vs NYY.
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ MIA
Green light: Miami Marlins run, and Connor Wong has caught just 16%
A 16% caught-stealing rate is an open invitation, and Miami's a club that accepts those. Every Marlin who reaches against Boston tonight is a real threat to be on second before the at-bat's over. The Red Sox arms need to speed up their time to the plate or this gets away from them.
P Miami Marlins stole 6 bases
FIRST INNINGCOL @ WSH
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Washington hasn't scored a first inning in ten straight games, and Colorado's Gordon has been sharp there too — a respectable 2.84 mark in that frame this year. The market still favors the over though, which points to Colorado's bats doing the early damage, so Washington's own starter needs to match zeros right away or this one slips away before the lineup wakes up.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGHOU @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
New York hasn't plated a first-inning run in ten straight games, and Houston's Lambert has been sharp there too — just one homer allowed in 22 innings. The total still favors the over though, which points to Houston striking first, so the Yankees need to answer immediately or this game gets away from them early.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
CUT LISTDET tonight
Zach McKinstry
A .622 OPS and a .218 average out of your six-hole bat is a straight anchor in a season-long format — that's below replacement-level production with nothing else in the profile (no power number, no speed number) to justify eating the average hit every night. Being in tonight's DET lineup just means you get another rep of the same problem, not a reason to hang on. Cut him.
TOMORROWLAD @ ATL
Chris Sale: 2.2 ERA vs 3.05 xERA
Sale's .222 average against sits right on top of his .225 expected mark, so this 2.20 ERA isn't batted-ball luck — it's earned. A 5.3% barrel rate and 34.6% hard-hit rate are clean, ace-level peripherals, not a correction waiting to happen. Against the Dodgers, I'm trusting the ERA over anyone calling him due for regression.
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ SD
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Freddy Fermin (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pittsburgh doesn't run enough to make this a real fight, and when they do, Fermin's already thrown out a third of the runners who've tried him. That's one avenue for a Pirates run that's mostly closed off tonight.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 9/1
Nick Mears
Shoulder injury, 60-day IL, six days out on the listed return. The number attached to him is a 5.12 ERA. Low-priority stash at best — that ERA doesn't do him favors. Deep-league-only bench filler, easy cut anywhere shallower.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ TOR
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 16%
Kirk's thrown out 12 of 75 all year — that's about as green a light as you'll find, and Kansas City already has 106 steals on the season to prove they'll take it. Every Royals single tonight has a real shot at becoming a double.
P Kansas City Royals stole 2 bases
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/1
Ryne Nelson
Elbow injury, 60-day IL, six days from the listed return. His 2026 line reads a 4.97 ERA. Cut bait in shallow leagues. Nothing in that ERA earns him a hold, and six days out is no reason to prioritize him. Deep-league watch only.
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 9/1
Matt Brash
Lat injury, 60-day IL, six days out on the listed return. The figure on file for him is a 0.54 ERA. Stash. An ERA that low is worth carrying through six more days, provided you've got the IL bench room.
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/1
Gavin Stone
Shoulder injury, 60-day IL, listed six days from return. There's no season line on file for him, so there's nothing to grade. Watch, don't spend the roster spot yet. With no performance data listed, this is a speculative flier for deep benches only.
FIRST INNINGCHC @ ARI
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Rodriguez is the one leaking early, seven homers allowed in just 26 first innings, so I like Chicago to get to him before Arizona's bats ever show up. The Diamondbacks have scored in the first exactly once in their last ten games, and Boyd's been sharp enough early that they're not the team to snap that streak. It's dead even at -115 both ways, but I lean toward Chicago cashing in first.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGTEX @ CHW
CHW have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Burke's been clean early, just two homers allowed in 22 first innings, and with Chicago's bats gone quiet for ten straight games, the under in the first is the side I want. Gore's actually the leakier arm, five homers in 27 innings, but Texas hasn't been the team punishing that. This one comes down to the White Sox cold streak doing the heavy lifting.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 9/5
Carlos Estevez
Estevez is the furthest out on this list — ten days on a shoulder, per the listing — and there's no season line telling me what I'd be getting back when he's activated. Furthest date, least information, bottom of my priority list. LOW PRIORITY — furthest out, least information, bottom of the stash list.

Graded results

Games

L
Tigers ML -114
MLB · 3-0
W
Diamondbacks ML +104
MLB · 0-2
L
Mariners ML +116
MLB · 6-0
W
Guardians ML -134
MLB · 4-3
L
Pirates ML +122
MLB · 0-3
L
Giants ML -118
MLB · 10-9
L
Red Sox ML -126
MLB · 0-4
W
Rockies ML +118
MLB · 13-1
L
Mets +1.5 -128
MLB · 8-1
L
Astros ML +110
MLB · 3-9
L
Dodgers ML -122
MLB · 5-6
L
Rangers ML +110
MLB · 4-10
W
Orioles ML -108
MLB · 8-7
W
Athletics ML +122
MLB · 4-7
L
Royals ML +138
MLB · 0-3

Props

L
AJ Smith-Shawver · under
Dodgers @ Braves · Actual 15
L
Bubba Chandler · over
Pirates @ Padres · Actual 3
L
Carson Benge · over
Brewers @ Mets · Actual 1
W
Connor Prielipp · over
Twins @ Athletics · Actual 3
L
Connor Prielipp · over
Twins @ Athletics · Actual 5
L
Corey Seager · over
Rangers @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Eduardo Rodriguez · under
Cubs @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Elmer Rodriguez · under
Astros @ Yankees · Actual 18
L
Freddy Peralta · over
Rays @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Grayson Rodriguez · under
Guardians @ Angels · Actual 17
W
Jesus Luzardo · over
Phillies @ Mariners · Actual 21
L
Kevin McGonigle · over
Rays @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Logan Webb · under
Reds @ Giants · Actual 6
L
Matthew Boyd · under
Cubs @ Diamondbacks · Actual 5
L
Michael McGreevy · over
Orioles @ Cardinals · Actual 15
L
Mickey Gasper · over
Red Sox @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Rockies @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Nick Lodolo · under
Reds @ Giants · Actual 12
L
Nolan Arenado · over
Cubs @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
W
Pete Alonso · over
Orioles @ Cardinals · Actual 4
W
Peter Lambert · under
Astros @ Yankees · Actual 2
L
Randal Grichuk · over
Rangers @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Randy Arozarena · over
Phillies @ Mariners · Actual 1
L
Randy Dobnak · under
Royals @ Blue Jays · Actual 18
W
Randy Vasquez · under
Pirates @ Padres · Actual 2
L
Robert Stock · over
Brewers @ Mets · Actual 2
L
Roki Sasaki · under
Dodgers @ Braves · Actual 4
L
Ryan Gusto · under
Red Sox @ Marlins · Actual 17
W
Spencer Miles · under
Royals @ Blue Jays · Actual 6
W
Steven Kwan · over
Guardians @ Angels · Actual 3
L
Tanner Gordon · under
Rockies @ Nationals · Actual 21
W
TJ Rumfield · over
Rockies @ Nationals · Actual 1