Royals at Blue Jays
O/U 8.5 · RL Blue Jays -1.5 · Rogers Centre
Royals ML+138
CONF 64%
LLostFinal 0-3
The read
Toronto is priced like the steadier side, but Kansas City has the cleaner route through the early innings. Randy Dobnak carries a 1.58 ERA, a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts and a 0.00 ERA across three road starts. Spencer Miles has a 3.02 ERA overall, but he has allowed 14 earned runs in 14 innings as a starter. The Blue Jays are asking an opener-and-bulk arrangement to cover the rotation spot created by Shane Bieber’s fresh absence.
The matchup immediately behind those pitchers also favors Kansas City. The Royals start five left-handed hitters, and Miles has allowed a .701 OPS to lefties compared with .447 to righties. That gives Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino and the rest of Kansas City’s left-handed group a real chance to apply pressure before Toronto reaches its best relievers.
Toronto’s bullpen is the strongest argument against this ticket: its current arms own a 3.42 ERA compared with Kansas City’s 4.53. But five Blue Jays relievers worked Tuesday, and the club needs substantial coverage again tonight. Kansas City has won nine straight, is averaging 5.5 runs over its last ten games and already showed it can manufacture runs in this park without relying on homers.
Dobnak’s 1.40 WHIP and 20 walks keep this from being a high-confidence play, but Toronto should not be laying this price with the less reliable opening arrangement. I see Kansas City as having a legitimate chance to win, not merely stay within one run, so I’ll take the payout rather than lay -166 for protection.
Props on this game
2Spencer MilesUNDER 6.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-200
WActual 6
I’m betting the assignment, not Miles’ season ERA. Toronto plans to use him as the opener before turning the bulk innings over to Simeon Woods Richardson.
Miles has not started in 39 days and worked only one-third of an inning three days ago. He must enter the third and record an out to beat this line, which is a lot to ask from a pitcher being used to begin a bullpen game.
The price is heavy, but the defined handoff makes the under worth laying it.
Randy DobnakUNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-101
LActual 18
Dobnak has completed more than five innings in only two of his seven starts. He needed 96 pitches to cover four scoreless innings last time, allowing six hits and four walks, and his 1.40 WHIP shows how much traffic he regularly works around. Toronto has several contact-oriented hitters who can extend innings against a pitcher whose primary sinker generates only a 7.6% whiff rate. Dobnak can pitch effectively without recording an out in the sixth, and at nearly even money I’m betting that his pitch count ends the night first.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store