Royals at Blue Jays

I’m taking Kansas City at plus money. This is not a blind bet on eight straight wins—the Royals built that streak against three losing clubs. It is a bet that tonight’s specific matchup still favors them more than the price suggests.

Max Scherzer enters with a 7.40 ERA, an 8.33 ERA at Rogers Centre and a 9.82 first-inning ERA. Left-handed batters have produced a .295 average and .912 OPS against him, and Kansas City starts five lefties plus a switch-hitter. The Royals have averaged 5.7 runs over their last ten games, compared with Toronto’s 3.9, while Vinnie Pasquantino has a 1.298 OPS over the last seven days and Michael Massey has a 1.005 OPS over the last fifteen.

Seth Lugo is the risk: he has a 5.63 road ERA and a 7.02 ERA across his last three starts. Toronto also starts four lefties and a switch-hitter against a pitcher allowing left-handed batters a .803 OPS. The Blue Jays carry the stronger bullpen as well, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP compared with Kansas City’s 4.59 and 1.45.

That keeps this from being a high-confidence play, but the ticket is still Kansas City. My read is that the Royals produce the better early innings against Scherzer, Lugo gives them enough, and they carry that advantage through Toronto’s stronger late-game arms. At +116, I want the outright win.