Cubs at Diamondbacks

I’m backing Arizona straight up. Brandon Pfaadt is the separator: he owns a 1.71 ERA in August and, before allowing five earned runs at Boston, had delivered four consecutive scoreless starts. His 2.83 ERA in six home starts also compares favorably with Clay Holmes’ 2.91 road ERA. Holmes has been effective overall, but he has made only three starts since returning from an 85-day absence and has completed six innings once.

Chicago’s offense and recent bullpen form are the dangers. The Cubs average 5.2 runs per game to Arizona’s 4.5, and their bullpen has a 2.28 ERA over the last seven games versus 5.12 for the Diamondbacks. But Monday’s 7-0 result is exactly what makes this home-side price attractive. My read is that Pfaadt reestablishes the form he carried into Boston and keeps Arizona away from the vulnerable portion of its bullpen.

The +1.5 protection costs -184, and that is not the bet this read calls for. Arizona needs to win for the starting-pitcher advantage to matter enough, so I’ll take the Diamondbacks moneyline at -102.