Red Sox at Yankees
O/U 6.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees ML -132
- Published odds
- -132
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 0-9
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 16 moves| Market | Opened Sep 28 5:00 AM | Close Sep 29 7:45 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+143) | Yankees -1 (+112) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 6.5 (-113) | 6 (-114) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -148 | Yankees -125 | +23 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 28 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+143) | 6.5 (-113) | Yankees -148 · Red Sox +123 |
| Sep 28 1:46 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 6.5 (-115) | Yankees -148 · Red Sox +123 |
| Sep 29 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+135) | 6 (-130) | Yankees -136 · Red Sox +114 |
| Sep 29 6:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+140) | 6.5 (-112) | Yankees -129 · Red Sox +108 |
| Sep 29 9:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6.5 (-105) | Yankees -124 · Red Sox +104 |
| Sep 29 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+143) | 6 (-125) | Yankees -132 · Red Sox +110 |
| Sep 29 12:00 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+140) | 6 (-130) | Yankees -136 · Red Sox +114 |
| Sep 29 1:01 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+148) | 6 (-129) | Yankees -127 · Red Sox +106 |
| Sep 29 1:23 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6.5 (-103) | Yankees -125 · Red Sox +105 |
| Sep 29 1:45 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6.5 (-103) | Yankees -124 · Red Sox +105 |
| Sep 29 4:01 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+143) | 6.5 (-104) | Yankees -130 · Red Sox +108 |
| Sep 29 4:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+143) | 6 (-122) | Yankees -130 · Red Sox +110 |
| Sep 29 4:45 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+140) | 6 (-129) | Yankees -134 · Red Sox +112 |
| Sep 29 5:37 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6 (-115) | Yankees -124 · Red Sox +104 |
| Sep 29 6:11 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+150) | 6 (-109) | Yankees -127 · Red Sox +107 |
| Sep 29 7:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+140) | 6 (-110) | Yankees -134 · Red Sox +112 |
| CLOSESep 29 7:45 PM | Yankees -1 (+112) | 6 (-114) | Yankees -125 · Red Sox +105 |
The read
Yankees and Red Sox open a best-of-three in the Bronx in October again, with AL Cy Young frontrunner Cam Schlittler facing rookie lefty Payton Tolle. My pick rests on what happens after the starters leave. Tolle has gone between 5.1 and 6.0 innings in each of the last five starts, at 91 to 97 pitches, so Boston's bullpen likely needs nine or more outs tonight. That bridge runs through Erik Miller (7.56 ERA and 9 walks in 8.1 innings over the last 30 days) and Garrett Crochet, who hasn't pitched in a game since April 25, before it reaches Whitlock and Chapman. Schlittler closed with a 1.17 ERA over the final nine starts and went 6 to 8 innings in the four full starts before the season-ending tune-up. Behind Schlittler, New York can go to Carlos Rodón on six days off or Will Warren (3.2 scoreless innings, 7 strikeouts on Sep 25) before Blackburn, Headrick and Bednar.
The second factor is handedness in this park. Tolle leans fly-ball (0.63 GO/AO) and has been weaker against lefties (.705 OPS allowed, against .624 by righties). Both of Tolle's starts against New York this year came at Fenway. Tonight is at Yankee Stadium, a 1.08 park factor, and Ben Rice (.534 SLG, .917 OPS at home) fits that profile. Schlittler holds lefties to a .560 OPS, which takes the same angle away from Boston's five left-side bats. Boston's lineup has also been hitting above its contact quality, led by Ceddanne Rafaela (.283 average on a .249 xBA), and has gone 8-for-80 with runners in scoring position over its last 10 games.
The strongest argument against this pick is the expected stats. Tolle's 2.70 xERA is lower than Schlittler's 2.85, and Tolle allows fewer barrels (6% vs 7.3%). Anyone paying for Schlittler's 1.95 ERA is paying for a fragile number. Boston also has the better defense (+70 DRS vs +27) and gets Willson Contreras back in the three-hole. But -132 doesn't price that 1.95 at face value. It prices a modest edge, close to what the contact numbers support. My view is that the market is underweighting how much of this game falls to the bullpens, and New York's is the one set up to handle it. I'm laying the price.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Payton Tolle: 1.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.53Tolle has allowed 3 earned runs in 17.2 innings over his last 3 starts with 24 strikeouts, well under his 3.03 season ERA. The strikeouts are the part to trust: more than a batter an inning keeps rallies short. A 1.53 ERA over 3 starts will drift up, so in New York, expect runs allowed nearer the 3.03 while respecting the swing-and-miss.
HEAT CHECK
Ben Rice: 1.124 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.124Rice has a 1.124 OPS over 45 AB in the last 15 days, up 0.227 on an .897 season mark that was already excellent. With 41 home runs, he stays dangerous even if he cools off. At a 0.5 total-bases line against Boston he needs one hit, and both his recent and season numbers back him there.
George Lombard Jr.: .885 OPS in Last 15 Days
.885Lombard has an .885 OPS over his last 46 AB, up 0.186 from a .699 season mark. That is a below-average season hitter on a good two-week run, and the season number is where he likelier lands. A 0.5 total-bases line against Boston asks for one hit, which the recent form helps, though his season level keeps it closer than the streak suggests.
COOLING OFF
Wilyer Abreu: .382 OPS in Last 15 Days
.382Abreu has gone quiet, a .382 OPS over the last 15 days, 0.391 below his .773 season mark. That is a big gap on 45 AB, and hitters with his season line usually climb out of stretches like this. In New York, the .773 is the better picture of him, and the slump may leave his prices softer than his talent.
Spencer Jones: .485 OPS in Last 15 Days
.485Jones has cooled, a .485 OPS over the last 15 days in 45 AB against .742 for the season. That is 0.257 below his norm on a small sample, and the gap should narrow as at-bats pile up. In New York, the season line is the steadier read, and a cold two weeks can make his prices look cheaper than they should.
BALLPARK
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 2.98 ERA
2.98Schlittler is good at home and close to untouchable on the road, a 2.98 ERA in the Bronx against 1.16 over 109.0 road innings. Hitters bat only .225 off him at Yankee Stadium, so the park costs him some runs without exposing him. The split rests on 84.2 home innings across 16 games, so it should hold. Against Boston tonight, price him off the 2.98.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Yankees are 7-6 vs Red Sox this season
7-6This season series is nearly even, 7-6 for New York, though the Yankees won the last meeting 16-1. One blowout says more about that night than about the rivalry. With the season split this close, tonight's starters decide more than the head-to-head record.
STREAK
NYY games have gone OVER 4 straight
O4The last four Yankees games have averaged 10.5 combined runs against totals around 6.5, so they have blown past expectations. Four games is a tiny sample, and runs like this usually come from a few big innings. Tonight's total sits at 6, lower than recent lines, with Schlittler and Tolle on the mound. The starters explain that number better than the over streak does.
TEAM RECORD
Yankees 6-2 in Cam Schlittler's last 8 starts
6-2New York has won six of the last eight games Schlittler started, so his nights have usually ended well for the team. That record includes run support and the bullpen, and eight starts is a small slice. Against Boston, set it beside the 6-2 mark on the other side before reading much into it.
Red Sox 6-2 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts
6-2Boston is 6-2 in Tolle's last eight starts, the same record the Yankees carry behind Schlittler tonight. Both marks come from eight games and credit the whole roster, so they mostly cancel out. When the starters bring identical team records into one game, look at the lineups and bullpens for any real edge.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 29, 2026 at 11:21 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, fanduel, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKGEORGE LOMBARD JR.H+R+RBI OVER 0.5
George Lombard Jr. over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -177. One hit, one run or one RBI cashes it. The price is steep, and I'm paying it because of where he hits and who he's facing.
The rookie shortstop bats fifth tonight, behind Ben Rice, Heliot Ramos and Cody Bellinger. Rice is the hottest bat in this lineup, with 7 hits in his last 22 at-bats and 2 homers. Lombard doesn't need to square anything up to get paid. A fly ball with Rice on third does it, and so does a run scored after a single. He's been swinging well into this spot. He has 4 homers over the last 15 days, went deep off a lefty (Seymour) on Sep 24, and homered in Arizona on Sep 18 against another left-hander. He owns a .910 OPS against lefties this season, and Tolle is a lefty. If Tolle goes his usual five or six innings, Boston's bullpen carries seven left-handed pitchers, so Lombard likely sees the same side of the mound late too. Tolle also pitches up in the zone. His 0.63 ground-out to air-out ratio means plenty of balls in the air at a park where fly balls carry, and Lombard's recent damage has come on balls he's lifted.
The case against this is real. That .910 against lefties comes from only 30 plate appearances, and Lombard has just 166 in the majors. He rarely walks, so this ticket depends on him putting the ball in play or on the hitters in front of him. Tolle has been tougher on righties than lefties all year, holding them to a .624 OPS, and he allowed one earned run in 13 innings over two starts against New York. Lombard also went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts against Trevor Rogers in his last game. Even so, he's hitting in an RBI slot at home, with a hot bat on base ahead of him, and one of three ways to cash. I'll lay it.
- GARY'S PICKCEDDANNE RAFAELAH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Ceddanne Rafaela over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -171. He needs one hit, run or RBI against the best pitcher in the league. I'm taking it anyway, because Rafaela is the Boston bat who has actually solved Cam Schlittler.
Rafaela is 4 for 11 in his career against Schlittler, which is the best mark of any Red Sox hitter tonight. Two of those hits came on Aug 28 in the Bronx, a game where Schlittler walked five and Boston put runners on all night. Rafaela puts the ball in play. He's a .283 hitter who rarely walks, averages about two hits plus runs plus RBIs per game this season, and projects for four trips to the plate from the five hole. He bats right behind Willson Contreras and his .386 on-base, so an RBI chance is realistic even on a night with little offense. If he reaches the late innings, the Yankees can bring in Carlos Rodón or Brent Headrick from the left side. Rafaela has an .811 OPS against lefties, better than his mark against righties.
The case against starts on the mound. Schlittler held right-handed hitters to a .520 OPS this year and allowed a 0.74 ERA across four starts against Boston. Rafaela's .283 average also sits well above what his contact quality supports. His expected average is .249, so some of that production has been luck. He has only 12 September at-bats after missing time with a quad strain, and his usual spot all season has been second, not fifth. Boston is also scoring about two runs a game over its last ten, so help from the rest of the lineup is thin. That's why the confidence is modest. At this price I'm backing the one hitter in this lineup with a track record against Schlittler.
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