Sports picks for Tuesday, September 29, 2026

DAL: 1 sack taken per game to HOU's 3.33

Dallas has been sacked once a game, down from 2.38 last season, while Houston's quarterback is going down 3.33 times, up from 2.58. Houston's protection has been a problem for two seasons running, so that side of the gap looks more real. Dallas's clean pocket is the part more likely to slip over a bigger sample. For this game, Houston drives stalling on sacks is the plausible pattern.

DAL: 57.1% third-down conversion rate to HOU's 36.4%

Dallas is converting 57.1% of third downs, up from 41.1% last season, while Houston is at 36.4%, close to its 37.2% from a year ago. Houston's number looks like who it is; Dallas's looks inflated by three games. Expect the Cowboys to come down some. They should still have the edge in sustaining drives, but a smaller one than this gap shows.

BUF: 33.7 points per game to NE's 12

Buffalo is scoring nearly three times what New England is through three games. The Patriots scored 28.8 a game last season, so 12 is a steep drop that three games can exaggerate, while Buffalo's 33.7 sits above its own 28.3 from last year. Both numbers should move back toward last season's marks. Buffalo at home dictating the scoreboard fits the pattern, but New England's offense is more likely to recover than stay this low.

BAL: 30.7 points per game to TEN's 12.3

Baltimore is scoring more than double what Tennessee is. The Ravens are up from 24.9 last season, the Titans down from 16.7, so three games have stretched a gap that already existed. Baltimore's pace may cool some, but Tennessee was a low scorer a year ago too. Expect the Ravens to control this game at home, with the Titans' offense the bigger question mark.

MIN: 13.7 points allowed per game to MIA's 28.7

Minnesota is allowing 13.7 points a game while Miami is giving up 28.7, more than double. Both defenses were already apart last season, Minnesota at 19.6 and Miami at 24.9, and three games have widened it. Minnesota's number will likely creep up. Miami's defense trending worse on the road is the bigger concern for anyone backing the Dolphins.

SF: 32.7 points per game to DEN's 20

DEN is at 20 points per game over 3 games; SF is at 32.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DEN was at 23.6 over 17 games and SF at 25.7 over 17 games.

JAX: 88.9% red-zone scoring rate to CIN's 50%

Jacksonville has scored touchdowns on nearly nine of every ten red-zone trips, well above its 61.8% last season. Cincinnati sits at 50%, down from 66.7% a year ago. Three games of red-zone chances is a small pile, and 88.9% almost never holds. Expect Jacksonville to come back toward normal and Cincinnati to improve, so this gap should shrink well before it widens.

BUF: 75% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 16.7%

Buffalo is scoring touchdowns on three of every four red-zone trips while New England has turned one in six into touchdowns. Red-zone trips are few, so three games means a handful of chances: New England was at 57.1% last season and Buffalo at 66.2%. The Patriots' number is the one most likely to climb. If New England moves the ball but settles for field goals again, Buffalo's cushion grows, but that pattern rarely lasts at 16.7%.

LAR: 284 team passing yards per game to PHI's 191.7

LAR is at 284 team passing yards per game over 3 games; PHI is at 191.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAR was at 268.1 over 17 games and PHI at 194.3 over 17 games.

SF: 7.47 yards per play to DEN's 4.87

San Francisco is gaining big chunks every snap while Denver is grinding for short gains, three games each. Last season the two were close, 5.49 for SF and 5.32 for DEN, so both numbers have drifted far from their normal. The Niners' 7.47 is a pace few offenses hold for long, and Denver's 4.87 should creep back toward last season's 5.32. Think of the Niners as the side dictating tempo at home, with the size of the gap likely to shrink as more games pile up.

BAL: 6.67 yards per play to TEN's 4.77

Baltimore is gaining nearly two more yards every snap than Tennessee, and both are close to last season's marks of 5.92 and 4.38. The big plays tell the story: Baltimore had 7 gains of 20-plus yards last game, including Lamar Jackson's 31-yarder to Rashod Bateman and a 29-yard Derrick Henry run, while Tennessee had one, a 20-yard Cam Ward throw to Carnell Tate. Tennessee needs long drives to score, which is a hard way to keep pace in Baltimore.

CHI: 184.3 rushing yards per game to NYJ's 92.3

Chicago is running for twice as many yards as the Jets through three games. The Bears were already a strong ground team last season at 144.5, and 184.3 builds on that, while the Jets have fallen from 123.3 to 92.3. Some of both moves will fade over more games. At home, Chicago leaning on the run and shortening the game fits who it has been, and the Jets would need to win this through the air.

GB: 266.7 team passing yards per game to TB's 185

GB is at 266.7 team passing yards per game over 3 games; TB is at 185 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 212.8 over 17 games and TB at 205.9 over 17 games.

Caleb Williams (QB) is doubtful for CHI

Williams is Chicago's quarterback, and doubtful means he is unlikely to play against the Jets. The report lists no injury detail or timeline. If he sits, the offense runs through whoever Chicago names as the backup, and any Bears line or total set with Williams in mind needs a second look.

CHI: 5.17 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.17

Chicago's runners are gaining two more yards a carry than the Jets' through three games. Both teams were close last season, CHI at 4.75 and NYJ at 4.53, so the Jets' 3.17 is the number most out of line. Expect New York's ground game to recover some, and Chicago to cool slightly from 5.17. The Bears likely have the edge running at home, while the Jets may need to throw more if carries keep stalling.

LV: 3.33 sacks recorded per game to KC's 1.33

Las Vegas is recording 3.33 sacks a game against Kansas City's 1.33 over three games. The Raiders have been the more disruptive front early, though three games is a thin sample for pass rush. If that pressure carries over, Kansas City's passing game may face more hurried throws than usual, which is worth factoring into their quarterback's props.

HOU: 86.7 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 179.7

Houston has allowed 86.7 rushing yards a game over three games, and Dallas has allowed 179.7. That is a big gap, but three games is a short sample and depends heavily on how each offense chose to attack. If Dallas keeps leaking yards on the ground, Houston has a clear path to lean on the run and control the clock. Rushing props and game script on the Houston side are the place to start.

HOU: 38.5% third downs allowed to DAL's 58.8%

Houston's defense gets off the field, allowing conversions on 38.5% of third downs, while Dallas has allowed 58.8% over the same three games. Third-down rates bounce around a lot early, so expect both to drift toward the middle. For now, Dallas giving up extended drives means more plays and more chances for Houston's offense, which pushes toward Houston holding the ball longer.

MIN: 22.7% third downs allowed to MIA's 48.1%

Minnesota has allowed only 22.7% of third downs to be converted over three games, with Miami at 48.1%. A rate that low rarely holds all season, so some movement back up is likely. Miami's offense still faces a defense that has been ending drives early, while Minnesota's offense gets a defense that has been extending them. That points toward Minnesota winning the possession battle.

SEA: 3.77 yards per play allowed to LAC's 5.4

LAC is at 5.4 yards per play allowed over 3 games; SEA is at 3.77 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

CAR: 172.3 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 299.3

DET is at 299.3 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; CAR is at 172.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

ATL: 47.7 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 128.7

ATL is at 47.7 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; NO is at 128.7 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

DET: 117.3 rushing yards allowed per game to CAR's 193.3

DET is at 117.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; CAR is at 193.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

WSH: 0.33 turnovers a game to IND's 2

Indianapolis has given the ball away twice a game through three games, while Washington has coughed it up once in three weeks. Both teams sat at 1.35 last season, so each side has moved far from its norm in a small sample, and turnover rates swing hard week to week. If the Colts keep gifting possessions, Washington gets short fields at home. Expect both numbers to drift back toward last season's level.

TB: 37.5% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 83.3%

GB is at 83.3% red-zone scoring allowed over 3 games; TB is at 37.5% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

MIN: 4.67 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0

Minnesota is averaging 4.67 sacks a game, and Miami has not recorded one in three games. Zero over three games is a real warning sign for Miami's rush, even with a small sample. Minnesota's quarterback should have time, while Miami's will face heavy pressure, which matters for sack props, interception chances and Miami's ability to sustain drives.

HOU: 3.67 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 0.67

Houston's pass rush is getting home at 3.67 sacks a game, while Dallas has managed just 0.67 across three games. Sacks come in bunches and three games is a small window, but a gap this wide usually reflects real pressure. Houston's quarterback should have a cleaner pocket than Dallas's, which helps Houston's passing props and hurts drive-killing negative plays on the Dallas side.

BUF: 54.5% on third down to NE's 32.5%

Buffalo has moved the chains on more than half its third downs, while New England is converting about one in three. Both are three-game samples: Buffalo was at 44.8% last season, New England at 42.9%, so the Bills are running hot and the Patriots cold. If New England keeps stalling on third down, Buffalo gets extra possessions. Expect both to move toward last season's marks as the year goes on.

CHI: 184.3 rush yards a game to NYJ's 92.3

Chicago is running for about twice as many yards a game as the Jets through three games. The Bears were already a strong ground team last season at 144.5, and the Jets have fallen from 123.3 to 92.3. Chicago's number is likely to cool off some, but the gap looks real. A Bears team that can run at home controls the clock and shortens the game for the Jets.

LAR: 284 pass yards a game to PHI's 191.7

The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: LAR threw for 284 passing yards a game over 3 games; PHI threw for 191.7 passing yards a game over 3 games this season. Last season LAR was at 268.1 over 17 games and PHI at 194.3 over 17 games.

BAL: 167.3 rush yards a game to TEN's 90.3

Baltimore is running for 167.3 yards a game, Tennessee for 90.3 through three games. Both numbers match last season closely, Baltimore at 156.6 and Tennessee at 93.5, so this is who these teams are. The Ravens can lean on the ground game at home and keep the Titans' offense on the sideline. Tennessee likely needs to win another way to keep pace.

DAL: 1 sacks taken a game to HOU's 3.33

Dallas has taken one sack a game through three games, while Houston's quarterback has gone down more than three times a game. Last season both were in the same range, Dallas at 2.38 and Houston at 2.58, so the Cowboys look better than usual and the Texans worse over a small sample. Sacks kill drives, so Houston's protection is the thing to track at home. Expect both to drift back toward last season.

MIN: 13.7 points allowed a game to MIA's 28.7

The widest gap between these two is points allowed a game: MIA's defense allowed 28.7 points a game over 3 games; MIN's defense allowed 13.7 points a game over 3 games this season. Last season MIA was at 24.9 over 17 games and MIN at 19.6 over 17 games.

SF: 7.47 yards a snap to DEN's 4.87

The widest gap between these two is yards a snap: DEN averaged 4.87 yards a snap on offense over 3 games; SF averaged 7.47 yards a snap on offense over 3 games this season. Last season DEN was at 5.32 over 17 games and SF at 5.49 over 17 games.

NO: 281.3 pass yards a game to ATL's 167.7

New Orleans is throwing for 281.3 yards a game, Atlanta for 167.7 through three games. Last season the gap was small, 219.3 to 207.2, so the Saints have jumped and the Falcons have dropped in a three-game sample. Both numbers look likely to move back toward last season. For now, the Saints' passing game is the one producing, and the Falcons would have to find more through the air on the road.

Nick Cross (S) is out for WSH

Cross is a safety for Washington, and an illness keeps him from even making the trip to London, so he is fully ruled out for Sunday against the Colts. Out means no chance he plays, which settles the question well before kickoff. The fact sheet does not name who fills his spot, so watch for the Commanders' depth chart at safety this week. For bettors, this is a known absence that can be priced in early.

Sam Cosmi (G) is out for WSH

Cosmi is a guard on Washington's offensive line, and a concussion keeps him off the London trip and out of Sunday's game against Indianapolis. Out means he will not play, so there is no game-time decision to wait on. His replacement is not listed here, so check who starts at guard before judging how the interior line holds up against the Colts' front.

Jayden Daniels (QB) is questionable for WSH

Daniels is Washington's starting quarterback, and his elbow puts a question mark on the whole offense this week. He is traveling with the team to London for Sunday's game against the Colts, a sign the Commanders expect him to have a real chance to play. Questionable means it could go either way, so the decision may come late. Wait for the final word before betting Washington's side or total, since the number should move once his status is settled.

Josh Allen (QB) is questionable for BUF

Allen took a hit to the knee area in the fourth quarter of the 24-16 win over the Chargers, and Joe Brady played it down, saying Allen is always a little sore after games. Questionable here reads more like caution than alarm. If he practices early in the week, expect him under center against New England and the line to hold.

Colbie Young (WR) is out for CIN

Young has a knee injury and is not expected to play against the Jaguars in Week 4. The sheet does not say how big his role is or who replaces him, so treat his absence as a depth question for Cincinnati's receivers rather than a shift in the offense's plan.

Terrance Ferguson (TE) is doubtful for LAR

Sean McVay said Ferguson will likely miss Sunday's game in Philadelphia, which is what doubtful usually means: plan on him sitting. The sheet does not list his injury or his replacement, so the Rams' tight end snaps shift to whoever is next up behind him.

Jaylen Watson (CB) is doubtful for LAR

Watson dislocated his shoulder in Sunday night's loss to the Broncos, and McVay said he is likely to miss the Eagles game. Doubtful here means expect him out. Losing a starting corner on the road in Philadelphia leaves the Rams thinner in coverage, which makes the Eagles' passing game the angle to look at.

Baker Mayfield (QB) is out for TB

Mayfield hurt his thumb and Todd Bowles expects him to miss three weeks, so Tampa Bay plays Green Bay without its starting quarterback. That is the biggest loss a team can take, and the sheet does not name the backup. Expect the Bucs' offense and totals to be adjusted down until he returns.

Jalen McMillan (WR) is out for TB

McMillan has a PCL sprain in his left knee and is out for the Packers game. For Tampa Bay that stacks on top of Mayfield's thumb injury, so the Bucs' passing game is short both a quarterback and a receiver this week.

Jayden Reed (WR) is doubtful for GB

Reed has a neck injury and Matt LaFleur still has no timeline for him, which fits the doubtful tag: plan on him missing the Tampa Bay game. With no return window given, his absence could stretch beyond this week, and the targets he usually draws move to the rest of Green Bay's receivers.

Ethan Pocic (C) is out for BAL

Pocic has a knee injury and is set to miss significant time, so Baltimore needs a new center against Tennessee. The Ravens also lost guard Jovaughn Gwyn to an ankle injury, so the interior of the line is the spot to watch in both the run game and pass protection.

Jovaughn Gwyn (G) is out for BAL

Gwyn has an ankle injury and is set to miss significant time, leaving Baltimore to fill a guard spot against Tennessee. He goes down alongside center Ethan Pocic, so the Ravens are patching two interior linemen at once, which matters most for how well they run the ball.

Jalen Thompson (S) is out for DAL

Thompson has a hamstring injury and Stephen Jones expects him to miss four-plus weeks, so Dallas plays Houston without a starting safety. The sheet does not say who steps in. A back-end absence tends to show up on deep throws, so the Texans' downfield passing is the part of this matchup to weigh.

Jonathan Bullard (DT) is out for DAL

Bullard has a calf injury and the Cowboys expect him to miss three to four weeks, per a Sep 30 report, so he is out for the trip to Houston. The fact sheet does not say who takes his snaps on the defensive line, so the rotation behind him is the open question. For this game, look for how Dallas fills his spot on early downs before leaning on any run-game angle for Houston.

Cobie Durant (CB) is doubtful for DAL

Doubtful means Cobie Durant most likely sits Sunday in Houston. He is dealing with a hamstring injury, and the Dallas beat report says he likely won't suit up. Hamstrings can linger, so Dallas should plan for a thinner cornerback room against the Texans. That makes Houston's passing game the side to think about.

Charles Demmings (CB) is out for MIN

Demmings has a hamstring injury and Kevin O'Connell said he will miss some time, starting with the Dolphins game. That leaves Minnesota a corner short in coverage, and with no firm timeline, it may last more than one week.

Nick Bosa (DE) is out for SF

Shanahan ruled Bosa out Monday with a calf injury, so there is no waiting on a Friday report: he will not play Sunday against the Broncos. San Francisco is also without defensive tackle James Thompson Jr., which leaves the front thinner on both the edge and the interior. Bettors can think about how much time Denver's quarterback gets and price this game assuming San Francisco generates less pressure than usual.

James Thompson Jr. (DT) is out for SF

Thompson has an ankle injury and will not play in the Week 4 game against the Broncos. He sits alongside Nick Bosa, who is also out with a calf injury, so San Francisco loses two starting pieces up front in the same week. That puts extra strain on the depth behind them, especially against the run.

Jaycee Horn (CB) is out for CAR

Horn tore his quadriceps in the fourth quarter of Sunday's 21-18 loss to the Browns. The expected timeline is 6-to-12 weeks, so this is a long absence and not a one-game issue. Carolina's secondary faces the Lions without him, and bettors should expect the coverage to look different for a good stretch of the season, starting with this matchup.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is out for NO

Etienne hurt his hamstring in Sunday's 35-27 loss to the Raiders, and Kellen Moore said he will have some time lost. That wording points to more than one game, so expect him to miss the Falcons matchup. The carries fall to the rest of the New Orleans backfield, and any player prop tied to Etienne's usage should be off the table for now.

MIN: 11.1% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 78.6%

Minnesota has allowed touchdowns on just 11.1% of red-zone trips over three games, while Miami has allowed 78.6%. Red-zone rates are built on few snaps, so Minnesota's number will almost certainly rise. The direction is still clear: Miami has had trouble finishing drives against this defense's type, and Minnesota has had little resistance close in. Field goals for Miami and touchdowns for Minnesota fit the early profile.

GB: 266.7 pass yards a game to TB's 185

Green Bay is throwing for 266.7 yards a game, Tampa Bay for 185 through three games. Last season they were close, 212.8 and 205.9, so both have moved a long way in a small sample. The Packers' passing game is running hot and the Buccaneers' has gone quiet. Expect both to drift back toward last season's level, but the Packers bring the stronger air attack into this road game.

MIN: 23.7 points per game to MIA's 12

MIA is at 12 points per game over 3 games; MIN is at 23.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season MIA was at 20.4 over 17 games and MIN at 20.2 over 17 games.

DET: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to CAR's 16.7%

Detroit is converting three of four fourth-down tries, Carolina one in six. Fourth-down samples over three games are tiny, a few attempts at most, so these rates swing wildly. Last season Carolina hit 67.5% and Detroit 58.1%, which says the Panthers' 16.7% is mostly noise. The useful piece is that Detroit keeps going for it, so expect aggressive calls and more possessions extended on the road.

DAL: 29.3 points per game to HOU's 18

DAL is at 29.3 points per game over 3 games; HOU is at 18 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DAL was at 27.7 over 17 games and HOU at 23.8 over 17 games.

Damien Lewis (G) is doubtful for CAR

Lewis is a starting guard on Carolina's offensive line, and the elbow injury is a UCL tear expected to cost him a few weeks. Doubtful means he is very unlikely to face Detroit, and the timeline suggests he will miss more than this one game. Losing a starting guard mostly shows up in the run game and in how often the quarterback gets pressured. Factor a thinner interior line into how you view Carolina's offense for this game and the next few.

KC: 6.47 yards per play to LV's 4.93

Kansas City is gaining over a yard and a half more per play than Las Vegas, and both are well above last season, KC 5.05 and LV 4.35. KC's last game had four plays of 20-plus, led by Mahomes finding Kelce for 48, so the deep passing game is back. Vegas hit three in its last game, including a 36-yard Mike Washington Jr. touchdown run. Over three games KC's 6.47 should cool some, but the Chiefs look like the side creating explosive plays.

MIN: 4.77 yards per play allowed to MIA's 6.3

MIA is at 6.3 yards per play allowed over 3 games; MIN is at 4.77 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Aidan O'Connell (QB) is questionable for LV

O'Connell is listed questionable for Las Vegas against Kansas City, which means a real chance he plays and a real chance he doesn't. The report gives no injury detail. Check his practice status late in the week before leaning on anything tied to the Raiders passing game.

Phillies 7-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 8 starts

Philadelphia has won seven straight times Luzardo has started, and the one loss in these eight came before that run began. Team record counts the lineup and bullpen too, and eight games is a short window, so it says more about how the club has played behind him lately than about Luzardo alone. In Atlanta tonight, check whether the price already leans on that streak before giving it extra weight.

LV: 3 takeaways per game to KC's 1.67

Las Vegas is forcing 3 takeaways a game over three games, with Kansas City at 1.67. A pace like that almost never lasts, since takeaways are largely luck-driven. The Raiders have been opportunistic early, and paired with their pass rush, Kansas City's ball security is the thing to weigh, though expect Las Vegas's rate to drop.

CHI: 2 takeaways per game to NYJ's 0.67

Chicago is averaging 2 takeaways a game over three games, compared with 0.67 for the Jets. Turnover rates swing a lot and tend to settle over a season, so expect Chicago's to come down. For now, the Bears have been the defense handing their offense short fields, which is a factor for Jets interception props.

SF: 90% red-zone scoring rate to DEN's 60%

DEN is at 60% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; SF is at 90% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DEN was at 57.9% over 17 games and SF at 65.2% over 17 games.

PIT: 2 takeaways per game to CLE's 0.67

Pittsburgh is forcing 2 takeaways a game over three games, while Cleveland is at 0.67. Takeaways are among the most random defensive numbers, so Pittsburgh's rate will likely cool. Early on, the Steelers have been the defense creating extra possessions, which matters for Cleveland's quarterback interception props and for close spreads.

BUF: 6.67 yards per play to NE's 5.2

Buffalo is gaining more per play than New England through three games, but last season it was the reverse, NE at 6.23 and BUF at 5.94. That makes the Patriots' 5.2 the odd number, and their last game hinted at a rebound with five plays of 20-plus, led by Drake Maye's 38-yarder to DeMario Douglas. Buffalo had two big plays in its last game, including Josh Allen's 37-yard throw to Keon Coleman. The gap should tighten, and New England's big-play passing gives it a path.

SEA: 141.7 passing yards allowed per game to LAC's 233

Seattle is allowing 141.7 passing yards a game over three games, while the Chargers have allowed 233. Seattle's pass defense has been stingy, and it matches their low yards-per-play numbers, which suggests real quality rather than a fluke. The Chargers' passing game faces the tougher assignment, and Seattle's receivers should find more space. Passing props lean toward Seattle.

KC: 6.47 yards a snap to LV's 4.93

Kansas City is gaining 6.47 yards a play, Las Vegas 4.93 through three games. Both are up from last season, Kansas City at 5.05 and Las Vegas at 4.35, so the Chiefs have the bigger jump and some of it likely cools. The gap between them matches last season. The Chiefs move the ball more easily, and the Raiders likely need to shorten the game at home.

Jaylen Wright (RB) is questionable for MIA

Wright has stinger and foot issues, and Jeff Hafley called him day-to-day on Monday. That is the mildest timeline a coach gives, so he has a real chance to face the Vikings. Watch whether he practices this week before counting on his usual share of Miami's carries.

Braves are 9-4 vs Phillies this season

Atlanta has had the better of this matchup all season, nine wins to Philadelphia's four. The Phillies took the last meeting 9-4, so they come in off a win over this club. A season series covers different starters and lineups across months, so the pitching matchup tonight tells you more than the 9-4 edge does.

Puka Nacua (WR) is questionable for LAR

Nacua is dealing with a hip injury, and Sean McVay said Monday the Rams are hopeful he returns for Sunday's game at Philadelphia. Hopeful is positive but not a promise, so his practice participation during the week is what to watch. If he plays, he may be managed, which matters for anyone looking at his receiving numbers.

BAL: 30:39 time of possession per game to TEN's 23:28

TEN is at 23:28 time of possession per game over 3 games; BAL is at 30:39 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 29:08 over 17 games and BAL at 29:11 over 17 games.

Caleb Douglas (WR) is questionable for MIA

Douglas has an ankle injury, and Hafley said he is day-to-day and could practice Wednesday. If he is on the field midweek, he is likely trending toward playing at Minnesota. A missed Wednesday would be the first real warning sign.

Justin Jefferson (WR) is questionable for MIN

Jefferson has a sprained left ankle confirmed by a Monday MRI, and the Vikings are hopeful he plays Sunday against the Dolphins. A sprain with a hopeful tone usually means a game-time decision more than a long absence. His practice reports this week will say a lot about his availability and how full his workload might be.

Breece Hall (RB) is questionable for NYJ

Hall's thigh injury turned out less serious than feared after a Monday MRI, and he is considered week-to-week. That timeline leans toward missing at least the trip to Chicago, even if the long-term news is good. Bettors should plan for the Jets' backfield without him until he practices.

Tylan Wallace (WR) is questionable for CLE

Tylan Wallace missed Cleveland's practice Tuesday with a knee injury, which puts his availability against Pittsburgh in doubt. Questionable after a missed session usually hinges on whether he gets back on the field later in the week. His status matters most if you are looking at the Browns receiver group.

Rico Dowdle (RB) is questionable for PIT

Rico Dowdle has a toe injury and was estimated as a non-participant Tuesday, so Pittsburgh has not seen him practice this week. Questionable means it could go either way, and a toe problem for a running back can limit him even if he plays. Watch his practice reports Wednesday through Friday before leaning on anything in the Steelers run game at Cleveland.

KC: 153.3 rushing yards per game to LV's 100

Kansas City is running for 153.3 a game, way up from 106.6 last season, while Las Vegas sits at 100 against 77.5 last season. Both run games have improved over three games, but KC's jump is the larger and less likely to fully hold. With the Chiefs also hitting big passes, a balanced KC attack is a real problem for Vegas. Expect the Chiefs to have the ground edge, by less than the current gap.

Dallas Goedert (TE) is doubtful for PHI

Goedert is Philadelphia's tight end, and doubtful means he is unlikely to face the Rams. The report gives no injury detail. His targets would move to the other tight ends and receivers, so Eagles receiving props deserve a fresh look once his status is final.

Nico Collins (WR) is questionable for HOU

Collins is a Houston receiver, and DeMeco Ryans said Monday he is hopeful to have him for Week 4 against Dallas. Hopeful from the head coach plus a questionable tag leans toward playing, though nothing is settled. If he suits up, keep in mind he may not be at full workload; if he sits, the other Texans receivers see more of the looks.

Mike Evans (WR) is questionable for SF

Evans strained a rib in Sunday's 36-30 win over the Cardinals and is day-to-day. Rib injuries are often about pain tolerance, so he has a real chance to face the Broncos. If he plays hurt, his snap count and targets are worth checking before relying on his usual output.

Charlie Kolar (TE) is doubtful for LAC

Kolar is a Chargers tight end, and doubtful means he is unlikely to play at Seattle. The report lists no injury detail. His snaps would go to the other tight ends on the roster, a small shift for the Chargers offense.

Jalen Coker (WR) is questionable for CAR

Coker has a minor quadriceps strain and could be available against the Lions. That is a mild diagnosis, and Carolina just lost cornerback Jaycee Horn for a long stretch, so a healthy Coker would be welcome news on offense. Watch his practice status midweek to see if he is on track.

TB: 76 rushing yards allowed per game to GB's 138.7

Tampa Bay has given up 76 rushing yards a game through three games, while Green Bay has allowed 138.7. The sheet does not say who each defense has faced, so three games is too few to call either run defense elite or broken. If the gap is real, Tampa has the easier path to leaning on the ground and forcing Green Bay into passing downs. Check the opponents on each schedule before trusting the full size of that edge.

SEA: 266.7 pass yards a game to LAC's 195.7

Seattle is throwing for 266.7 yards a game, the Chargers for 195.7 through three games. Last season it was 228.1 to 212.2, so the Seahawks are up and the Chargers down in a small sample. Both numbers look likely to move back some. At home, Seattle's passing game is the one producing right now, and the Chargers need more through the air to keep pace.

SEA: 25 points per game to LAC's 14.7

LAC is at 14.7 points per game over 3 games; SEA is at 25 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAC was at 21.6 over 17 games and SEA at 28.4 over 17 games.

NE: 170 passing yards allowed per game to BUF's 254.3

New England has held offenses to 170 passing yards a game, and Buffalo has allowed 254.3, both over three games. Without knowing which quarterbacks each defense saw, that is a small sample that can swing with one bad matchup. For this game, the question is whether Buffalo's secondary can hold up against any passing attack, since it has leaked yards so far.

SF: 0 sacks taken per game to DEN's 1.67

DEN is at 1.67 sacks taken per game over 3 games; SF is at 0 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DEN was at 1.77 over 17 games and SF at 1.8 over 17 games.

BUF: 0.67 interceptions thrown per game to NE's 2

NE is at 2 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; BUF is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NE was at 0.47 over 17 games and BUF at 0.59 over 17 games.

WSH: 82 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 141.3

Washington has allowed 82 rushing yards a game over three games, compared with 141.3 for Indianapolis. Three games is enough to notice a gap and too few to lock it in, especially with no opponent detail on the sheet. If both numbers hold, Washington's offense gets the friendlier running matchup at home, which can shape clock control and totals thinking.

DET: 4 sacks recorded per game to CAR's 2.33

Detroit is getting home four sacks a game over three games, while Carolina sits at 2.33. Sack totals jump around a lot early and depend on how often opponents drop back, so three games leaves room for both numbers to move. The pressure gap still points toward Carolina's quarterback facing the tougher day, which matters for drive-killing plays and sack-related props.

TEN: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to BAL's 0%

TEN is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; BAL is at 0% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 45.7% over 17 games and BAL at 60% over 17 games.

NO: 27 points per game to ATL's 17

ATL is at 17 points per game over 3 games; NO is at 27 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 20.8 over 17 games and NO at 18 over 17 games.

ARI: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NYG's 50%

Arizona has converted every fourth down it has tried, New York half of theirs, over three games. That is a handful of attempts, and last season ARI was at 42.9% and NYG at 46.2%. Arizona's perfect mark will not last. What carries over is that the Cardinals are willing to go for it, which can matter in close spots on the road.

SEA: 1 sack taken per game to LAC's 2.67

Seattle's quarterback has gone down once a game through three games, while the Chargers are giving up 2.67 a game. Last season LAC allowed 3.75 a game and SEA 2.08, so the Chargers have improved and Seattle is well ahead of its own pace. Three games is short and Seattle's number will likely drift up. For this game, the pressure edge still points toward Seattle's defense getting home more often than the Chargers do.

GB: 2.67 sacks taken per game to TB's 4.33

Tampa Bay's quarterback is getting sacked 4.33 times a game, well above last season's 2.38. Green Bay's 2.67 is also up from 2.07, but less so. Three games is a short run, and TB's rate should ease, though the protection problem is real enough to matter now. At home, Tampa may lean on quicker throws, and Green Bay's pass rush is the edge to weigh.

Chig Okonkwo (TE) is questionable for WSH

Okonkwo is dealing with a hamstring injury but is making the trip to London for Sunday's Week 4 game against the Colts. Traveling is a good sign, and questionable means a true game-time call. Hamstrings can flare up again, so even if he plays, his snap count could be limited. If you are looking at his receiving props, wait until he is confirmed active.

T.J. Sanders (DT) is doubtful for BUF

Sanders is a Buffalo defensive tackle listed doubtful against New England, so expect him to miss. The report gives no injury detail. The Bills rotate other interior linemen into his snaps, which matters most on Patriots running plays.

DAL: 7.3 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 23.3

DAL is at 7.3 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; HOU is at 23.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DAL was at 16 over 17 games and HOU at 20.8 over 17 games.

Colby Parkinson (TE) is questionable for LAR

Colby Parkinson sprained the AC joint in his shoulder during the Rams' 30-26 loss to Denver, and Sean McVay called him day-to-day. Day-to-day on a shoulder sprain points toward a real chance he plays at Philadelphia. His practice reports this week will show whether he carries a full tight end workload or a reduced one.

Yankees 6-2 in Cam Schlittler's last 8 starts

New York has won six of the last eight games Schlittler started, so his nights have usually ended well for the team. That record includes run support and the bullpen, and eight starts is a small slice. Against Boston, set it beside the 6-2 mark on the other side before reading much into it.

Red Sox 6-2 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts

Boston is 6-2 in Tolle's last eight starts, the same record the Yankees carry behind Schlittler tonight. Both marks come from eight games and credit the whole roster, so they mostly cancel out. When the starters bring identical team records into one game, look at the lineups and bullpens for any real edge.

Cubs 2-6 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts

Chicago has lost six of Boyd's last eight starts. That covers the offense and bullpen as well as Boyd, and in eight games a few close losses or quiet nights at the plate can build a 2-6 mark. In San Diego tonight, find out why those games were lost before assuming the pattern carries forward.

Cubs are 5-1 vs Padres this season

The Cubs have won five of six meetings with San Diego this season, and the last one was a 23-3 blowout. Six games is a small series, and one lopsided score says more about that night than about the teams. Tonight's starters are the better guide than the season series.

NYJ: 4.67 yards per play allowed to CHI's 5.93

The Jets are allowing 4.67 yards per play over three games, and Chicago is at 5.93. Yards per play is one of the steadier defensive measures, though three games without opponent context can still flatter a unit. If it holds, the Jets defense makes it harder for Chicago to string together big plays, which tilts this matchup toward fewer explosive drives on that side.

KC: 4.83 yards per rush attempt to LV's 3.23

Kansas City is getting 4.83 yards a carry over three games, Las Vegas 3.23. Both numbers sit close to last season, when KC ran for 4.29 and LV for 3.38, so this gap looks like who these teams are more than a hot streak. The Chiefs can lean on the run to stay ahead of the chains, and the Raiders have had a hard time making the ground game carry them. In this spot, KC can control the game on the ground if it chooses to.

DAL: 75% red-zone scoring rate to HOU's 50%

DAL is at 75% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; HOU is at 50% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DAL was at 56.9% over 17 games and HOU at 46.3% over 17 games.

Shavon Revel Jr. (CB) is questionable for DAL

Shavon Revel Jr. is expected to work his way into practice this week while coming back from a knee injury. That sounds like a gradual return, so a limited role or snap count at Houston is possible even if he's active. With Cobie Durant also doubtful, the Dallas cornerback depth is the thing to track.

Jaxson Dart (QB) is on injured reserve for NYG

The Giants placed Jaxson Dart on injured reserve with a knee injury, so he will miss at least this game against Arizona and more beyond it. A starting quarterback on IR forces the offense to run through a backup, and that changes how every Giants passing number should be judged until he returns.

Tyson Campbell (CB) is questionable for CLE

Tyson Campbell has a knee injury and was estimated as limited in Monday's practice. That is a middle-ground signal for a questionable corner. If he trends up to full, Cleveland's secondary is close to intact against Pittsburgh; if he stays limited, his snaps in coverage are less certain.

Elgton Jenkins (C) is questionable for CLE

Jenkins is in the concussion protocol and did not practice Tuesday, so his status against Pittsburgh depends on clearing it during the week. Missing Tuesday is an early sign, and a questionable tag on a concussion can go either way late. If Cleveland plays without its center, the snap exchange and interior protection against the Steelers' front become the spot to watch when sizing up the Browns' offense.

Jalen Ramsey (CB) is questionable for PIT

Jalen Ramsey played the 30-27 win over the Bengals with a broken right wrist, and he revealed the injury Tuesday. He finished that game, so the questionable tag reflects managing the wrist more than missing time. A cornerback with a hurt hand can struggle to jam receivers and make plays on the ball. Keep that in mind when sizing up Cleveland's passing chances against Pittsburgh.

BUF: 155 rushing yards per game to NE's 109.3

NE is at 109.3 rushing yards per game over 3 games; BUF is at 155 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NE was at 128.9 over 17 games and BUF at 159.6 over 17 games.

Brandin Echols (CB) is questionable for PIT

Echols' questionable tag leaves Pittsburgh uncertain about a cornerback for Cleveland. He was limited in Monday's practice estimate with a concussion, so his game availability is unresolved and the report does not name who would take his snaps.

JAX: 12 points allowed per game to CIN's 21

Jacksonville has allowed 12 points a game through three games, and Cincinnati has allowed 21. Last season the Jaguars gave up 19.8 and the Bengals 28.9, so both defenses are better, with Jacksonville's jump the bigger one. Twelve a game over three weeks is a pace that tends to rise as the schedule changes. The totals market may still be pricing Cincinnati's defense off last season's 28.9, and that matters for how this game gets priced.

NE: 17 points allowed per game to BUF's 26

NE is at 17 points allowed per game over 3 games; BUF is at 26 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and BUF at 21.5 over 17 games.

Colson Montgomery: .265 OPS in Last 15 Days

Montgomery has barely reached base or hit for power lately, a .265 OPS over the last 15 days, well under his .685 season mark. That slide is 0.42 below his norm on just 42 AB, a short window. Expect him to drift back toward the season level, so the cold stretch deserves only light weight when looking at his props in Houston.

P 1-for-3, 4 TB

Wilyer Abreu: .382 OPS in Last 15 Days

Abreu has gone quiet, a .382 OPS over the last 15 days, 0.391 below his .773 season mark. That is a big gap on 45 AB, and hitters with his season line usually climb out of stretches like this. In New York, the .773 is the better picture of him, and the slump may leave his prices softer than his talent.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

JAX: 12 points allowed a game to CIN's 21

Jacksonville's defense has allowed 12 points a game through three games, Cincinnati's 21. Both are better than last season, Jacksonville at 19.8 and Cincinnati at 28.9, and the Bengals' improvement is the bigger one. Three games is a small sample, so expect both to give some of that back. The Jaguars' defense has been the stingier one so far, which matters on the road.

Jacob Monk (C) is questionable for GB

Jacob Monk picked up an undisclosed injury late in Green Bay's 35-14 loss to Atlanta. With no injury type named, his questionable tag is hard to read. A missing center can disrupt the line, so check practice reports and inactives before the Packers visit Tampa Bay.

NO: 3.67 red-zone trips per game to ATL's 1.67

ATL is at 1.67 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; NO is at 3.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 2.94 over 17 games and NO at 2.65 over 17 games.

GB: 1.33 turnovers committed per game to TB's 2.33

GB is at 1.33 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; TB is at 2.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 0.76 over 17 games and TB at 0.94 over 17 games.

DET: 0.33 turnovers a game to CAR's 1.33

Detroit has turned it over once in three games, Carolina about four times. Carolina matches last season's 1.35, while Detroit is below its own 0.88 from last season, so some regression is likely. Turnovers swing a lot week to week, but the Lions have protected the ball better for a full season. Carolina likely needs to win the turnover battle at home to hang around.

BUF: 4 red-zone trips per game to NE's 2

NE is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; BUF is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NE was at 3.71 over 17 games and BUF at 3.82 over 17 games.

BUF: 1.67 turnovers committed per game to NE's 2.67

NE is at 2.67 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; BUF is at 1.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NE was at 0.94 over 17 games and BUF at 1.12 over 17 games.

CAR: 2.33 takeaways per game to DET's 1.33

DET is at 1.33 takeaways per game over 3 games; CAR is at 2.33 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

DET: 0.33 turnovers committed per game to CAR's 1.33

Detroit has given the ball away once in three games, Carolina 1.33 times a game. The Panthers' number matches last season's 1.35, so that is who they are, while the Lions' 0.33 is well under last season's 0.88 and likely to rise. Turnover gaps are among the most volatile numbers in football. Detroit's ball security has been real for two seasons, and Carolina hands teams extra possessions at a steady clip.

NYG: 18.3 points allowed per game to ARI's 27

The Giants have allowed 18.3 points a game over three games, Arizona 27. Last season the Giants gave up 25.8, so their defense has tightened a lot, while ARI's 27 sits right next to its 28.7 from a year ago. Arizona's number looks stable, and the Giants' improvement over three games has more room to fade. With a Giants offense that has been scoring little, their defense is carrying the load in games like this one.

JAX: 29% third downs allowed to CIN's 43.6%

Jacksonville has let opponents convert just 29% of third downs over three games, and Cincinnati has allowed 43.6%. Third-down rates are noisy in small samples and tend to drift back toward league norms, so expect Jacksonville's number to rise some. The gap still favors Jacksonville getting off the field more often, which can shorten Cincinnati's drives.

TB: 35.7% third downs allowed to GB's 50%

Tampa Bay has allowed 35.7% of third downs to be converted over three games, while Green Bay is at 50%. Half of third downs going against you is a rate that usually comes down, so Green Bay's number probably improves with time. For now, Tampa's offense has the easier path to extending drives in this game.

SEA: 16.7 points allowed per game to LAC's 25.3

LAC is at 25.3 points allowed per game over 3 games; SEA is at 16.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAC was at 20 over 17 games and SEA at 17.2 over 17 games.

NYG: 18.3 points allowed a game to ARI's 27

The Giants' defense has allowed 18.3 points a game through three games, Arizona's 27. Arizona is close to last season's 28.7, while the Giants have improved from 25.8 in a small sample. The Cardinals' number looks like who they are, and the Giants' may drift up some. At home, New York has the steadier defense right now.

MIN: 2 takeaways per game to MIA's 1

MIA is at 1 takeaways per game over 3 games; MIN is at 2 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

LAR: 1 takeaways per game to PHI's 0

The Rams have forced one takeaway a game over three games, while Philadelphia has none. Takeaways are among the most random stats in football, and three games is a tiny window, so Philadelphia's zero is more likely luck than a real flaw. Do not lean hard on turnover margin here; the numbers are too thin to predict much.

ARI: 210 team passing yards per game to NYG's 153

Arizona throws for 210 yards a game over three games, the Giants 153. Both are down from last season, when ARI threw for 232.6 and NYG for 204.4, but the Giants' drop is far larger. A 153-yard passing attack puts a lot on the run and the defense to keep games close. The Cardinals should have the more dangerous air game in this matchup, and Giants passing totals deserve caution until they show a better week.

Grant Delpit (S) is questionable for CLE

Delpit (shoulder) was estimated as a limited participant in Monday's practice, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. Reported Sep 29.

NE (1-2) at BUF (3-0), a division game

Buffalo is 3-0 with a +23 point margin and 2-0 at home, while New England is 1-2 at -15 and 0-2 on the road. That home and road split is the sharpest part of this spot: the Bills have handled their own building and the Patriots have not won away from theirs. It is three games, so none of it is settled, but division familiarity tends to tighten games that look lopsided on paper. The number to price is how much of that road record is New England and how much is schedule.

MIA: 192.3 team passing yards per game to MIN's 137

MIA is at 192.3 team passing yards per game over 3 games; MIN is at 137 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season MIA was at 180.5 over 17 games and MIN at 166.7 over 17 games.

Ashton Dulin (WR) is questionable for IND

Dulin is an Indianapolis receiver listed questionable at Washington, a real chance either way. No injury detail is on the report. His role is limited enough that his status mostly shifts depth snaps and special teams work.

Percy Butler (S) is questionable for WSH

Butler is a safety in Washington's secondary and is working back from a concussion before Sunday's game in London against the Colts. Questionable means he still has to clear the league's concussion steps, which can come late in the week. If he sits, Washington's depth at safety gets tested against the Colts' passing game. Check his status before leaning on anything tied to Indianapolis through the air.

Kene Nwangwu (RB) is questionable for NYJ

Nwangwu is a Jets running back listed questionable at Chicago. The report gives no injury detail. If he sits, the other backs and the return game absorb his work.

Adonai Mitchell (WR) is questionable for NYJ

Mitchell is a Jets receiver listed questionable at Chicago, a real chance he plays and a real chance he doesn't. No injury detail is on the report. If he misses, the other Jets receivers pick up his targets, so check his status before playing any New York receiving props.

Hollywood Brown (WR) is questionable for PHI

Brown is a Philadelphia receiver listed questionable against the Rams. The report gives no injury detail. If he sits, his snaps go to the other Eagles receivers, and his own props carry extra risk until his status is set.

Chamarri Conner (S) is questionable for KC

Chamarri Conner has a knee injury, and the Chiefs' official site reported Monday that he has a good chance to play at Las Vegas. That is a positive lean for a questionable safety. Expect Kansas City's secondary to look close to normal unless practice reports turn the other way.

Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) is questionable for DEN

Mims is a Denver receiver and returner listed questionable at San Francisco. No injury detail is on the report. A miss would shift some receiving snaps and return duties to others on the Broncos roster.

Jaylen Waddle (WR) is questionable for DEN

Denver lists Jaylen Waddle as questionable for the trip to San Francisco, with no injury or practice detail given. Questionable means a real chance he sits or plays limited. His practice status later in the week tells you more about the Broncos passing game than anything available now.

Brenen Thompson (WR) is questionable for LAC

Thompson is a Chargers receiver listed questionable at Seattle, so his status is up in the air. The report gives no injury detail. If he sits, the other Chargers receivers absorb his snaps.

Devin Lloyd (LB) is questionable for CAR

Lloyd is dealing with a calf injury, and Dave Canales said Monday he expected him back at practice before the Week 4 home game against Detroit. A coach saying that early in the week points toward him playing, though questionable still leaves room for a late scratch. Watch whether he practices fully as the week goes on; if he does, Carolina's linebacker group should look like normal against the Lions.

Xavier Legette (WR) is questionable for CAR

Legette is a Carolina receiver listed questionable against Detroit. No injury detail is on the report. If he misses, his targets spread to the other Panthers receivers, so wait on his status before touching Carolina receiving props.

Barion Brown (WR) is questionable for NO

New Orleans listed the wide receiver as questionable on Sep 29 for the Falcons game, which means his status is uncertain. The report gives no injury or practice detail, so check whether he is active before betting Saints passing props.

CHI: 29.7 points per game to NYJ's 21.3

Chicago is scoring 29.7 points a game over three games, the Jets 21.3. Both are up from last season, when CHI scored 25.9 and NYJ 17.6. The Bears have carried the better offense into this season, and the Jets' improvement over three games is less proven. At home, Chicago should dictate the pace, and the Jets may need to chase points.

Astros are 5-2 vs White Sox this season

Houston has won five of seven meetings with Chicago this season, including a 6-2 win last time out. Seven games is a short series, so it tells you the Astros have handled this opponent more than it predicts tonight. The starting matchup should carry more weight.

Jake Cronenworth: .933 OPS in Last 15 Days

Cronenworth has a .933 OPS over his last 51 AB, far above his .629 for the season. A 0.304 swing over about two weeks is mostly a hot patch, and the season number is the better read on his year. With a 0.5 total-bases line against the Cubs, one hit clears it, and the recent form makes that a live spot.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Ozzie Albies: .364 OPS in Last 15 Days

Albies is in a dip, a .364 OPS over the last 15 days, 0.321 under his .685 season mark. Forty-eight at-bats is enough to notice and too few to redefine him, and slumps this short tend to fade. Against Philadelphia at home, the season baseline is the fairer guide for his props.

P 1-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB

Mauricio Dubon: 1.047 OPS in Last 15 Days

Dubon has hit like a middle-of-the-order bat for two weeks, a 1.047 OPS in 46 AB against a .719 season mark. That 0.328 jump is mostly a hot patch, and his 12 home runs show the pop is real but occasional. On a 1.5 total-bases line in Atlanta, he needs more than a single, so price him closer to the season number than the recent run.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB

Jackson Powers-Johnson (G) is questionable for LV

Powers-Johnson has a groin injury and was still being evaluated as of Sep 29 to find out how bad it is. Questionable with an open evaluation means the next update decides this. If he misses the Chiefs game, the Raiders lose a starter up front, so watch for the injury's severity before judging Las Vegas's line against Kansas City.

Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF

Through 3 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 786 passing yards, completed 65.1% of his passes and averaged 9.14 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in. Josh Allen is also listed q for this matchup.

KC: 263 team passing yards per game to LV's 211.7

KC is at 263 team passing yards per game over 3 games; LV is at 211.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season KC was at 214.1 over 17 games and LV at 167.7 over 17 games.

SEA: 26.8% third downs allowed to LAC's 40%

Seattle has held opponents to 26.8% on third down over three games, with the Chargers at 40%. Rates that low rarely last a full season, so Seattle is likely to come back toward the pack. At home, that edge still suggests Seattle can stall Chargers drives better than the reverse, at least while the trend holds.

PIT @ CLE carries a 38.5 market total

The current fanduel total is 38.5, 7 points below the 45.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.

HOU: 42.9% red-zone scoring allowed to DAL's 69.2%

DAL is at 69.2% red-zone scoring allowed over 3 games; HOU is at 42.9% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA

Charbonnet is on the reserve list with a knee injury, and Mike Macdonald said Friday a return to practice next week is potentially on the table. That means practice, not games: he is not playing against the Chargers. Seattle's backfield work stays with the healthy backs this week, and a practice return would be the first step toward him coming back later.

LAR: 6.33 yards per play to PHI's 5.33

The Rams gain 6.33 yards a play over three games, the Eagles 5.33, and both sit close to last season's 6.15 and 5.27. The difference showed up in explosives last game: LA had 7 plays of 20-plus yards, including Matthew Stafford's 49-yard throw to Davante Adams and a 30-yard Kyren Williams run, while Philadelphia had 2. The Rams stretch defenses and the Eagles grind out drives. The game likely turns on whether Philadelphia's defense can limit the big shots.

NO: 1 interception thrown per game to ATL's 2

ATL is at 2 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; NO is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 0.47 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.

NYY games have gone OVER 4 straight

The last four Yankees games have averaged 10.5 combined runs against totals around 6.5, so they have blown past expectations. Four games is a tiny sample, and runs like this usually come from a few big innings. Tonight's total sits at 6, lower than recent lines, with Schlittler and Tolle on the mound. The starters explain that number better than the over streak does.

P final total 9 vs 6

AFC WEST game: KC 1-0, LV 1-0 in the division

These two share the AFC WEST. KC is 1-0 against it, LV is 1-0. Current-2026 standings through 2026-09-28.

Mason Taylor (TE) is questionable for NYJ

The Jets listed the tight end as questionable on Sep 29 for the game in Chicago, so he may not play. The report names no injury and no replacement. Hold Jets receiving props until his status is confirmed.

Eli Raridon (TE) is questionable for NE

New England listed the tight end as questionable on Sep 29 ahead of the trip to Buffalo, so he may or may not play. The report does not name an injury or a backup, so any tight end prop is safer to price after the inactives come out.

CHI: 12.3 sack yards lost per game to NYJ's 24.3

NYJ is at 24.3 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; CHI is at 12.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NYJ was at 24.9 over 17 games and CHI at 12.7 over 17 games.

BUF: 5 yards per rush attempt to NE's 3.87

NE is at 3.87 yards per rush attempt over 3 games; BUF is at 5 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NE was at 4.4 over 17 games and BUF at 4.97 over 17 games.

Brenton Doyle: .973 OPS in Last 15 Days

Doyle is at a .973 OPS over the last 15 days, but only across 37 AB, against a .637 season baseline. A 0.336 gap on that few at-bats is the kind of streak that fades fast. Against the White Sox, size him up off the season number.

P 0-for-0, 0 TB

ATL: 35.7% third downs allowed to NO's 47.1%

Atlanta has allowed 35.7% on third down over three games, while New Orleans has allowed 47.1%. Three games is a short sample for a stat this volatile, and the sheet gives no opponent context. If the split holds, Atlanta's offense should find more drive-extending chances in New Orleans than the Saints get the other way.

LAR: 21.3 first downs per game to PHI's 15.7

The Rams are moving the chains 21.3 times a game over three games, the Eagles 15.7. Both are down from last season, when LA had 23.3 and PHI 18. Philadelphia's offense has stalled more often than usual, and that tends to even out over a season. The Rams sustain drives better, which lets them control the clock unless the Eagles return to last season's form.

SEA: 6.13 yards per play to LAC's 5.23

Seattle gains 6.13 yards a play over three games to the Chargers' 5.23. Both are close to last season: SEA at 5.98, LAC at 5.19. This gap has held for over a season, which makes it look real. At home, Seattle has the more efficient offense, and the Chargers need longer drives to keep up.

GB @ TB carries a 39.5 market total

The current fanduel total is 39.5, 6 points below the 45.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.

MIA @ MIN carries a 39.5 market total

The current fanduel total is 39.5, 6 points below the 45.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.

JAX @ CIN carries a 51.5 market total

The current fanduel total is 51.5, 6 points above the 45.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.

Samson Ebukam (DE) is questionable for ATL

Atlanta listed the defensive end as questionable on Sep 29 for the trip to New Orleans, so he may not play. The report does not name the injury or who fills in. Wait for inactives before leaning on the Falcons' pass rush.

Romello Height (DE) is questionable for SF

San Francisco listed the defensive end as questionable on Sep 29 against Denver, so he may or may not play. The report names no injury and no backup, so his status matters mostly as a lineup check before kickoff.

Josh Simmons (OT) is questionable for KC

Kansas City listed the offensive tackle as questionable on Sep 29 for the Raiders game, so he may not play. The report does not say what the injury is or who steps in. Check inactives if you are betting on how the Chiefs quarterback is protected.

Robert Beal Jr. (DE) is questionable for MIA

Miami listed the defensive end as questionable on Sep 29 for the trip to Minnesota, so his status is uncertain. The report gives no injury or replacement, so confirm he is active before you factor him in.

Jadeveon Clowney (DE) is questionable for HOU

Houston listed the defensive end as questionable on Sep 29 against Dallas, so he may or may not play. The report does not name the injury or who would replace him. Let his status settle before you bet on Dallas's quarterback facing pressure.

Ronnie Stanley (OT) is questionable for BAL

Baltimore listed the offensive tackle as questionable on Sep 29 for the Titans game, so he may not play. The report does not name the injury or his backup. Line changes can shift how a team runs and protects the passer, so it pays to confirm before kickoff.

Fred Johnson (OT) is questionable for PHI

PHI lists Fred Johnson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable for NYG

The Giants listed the cornerback as questionable on Sep 29 against Arizona, so he may or may not suit up. The report gives no injury detail. If he sits, Cardinals receivers could draw an easier matchup, so watch his status before betting their yardage props.

Dre'Mont Jones (DE) is questionable for NE

New England listed the defensive end as questionable on Sep 29 for the Bills game, so his availability is uncertain. The report does not give the injury or say who would rush in his place. Wait for the inactive list before you bet on Buffalo's quarterback being under pressure.

Tytus Howard (OT) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Tytus Howard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

Joey Porter Jr. (CB) is questionable for PIT

PIT lists Joey Porter Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 28.

Spencer Jones: .485 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jones has cooled, a .485 OPS over the last 15 days in 45 AB against .742 for the season. That is 0.257 below his norm on a small sample, and the gap should narrow as at-bats pile up. In New York, the season line is the steadier read, and a cold two weeks can make his prices look cheaper than they should.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB

TB: 30:03 time of possession per game to GB's 25:38

GB is at 25:38 time of possession per game over 3 games; TB is at 30:03 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 29:48 over 17 games and TB at 31:53 over 17 games.

SF: 16.7 points allowed per game to DEN's 23.3

DEN is at 23.3 points allowed per game over 3 games; SF is at 16.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DEN was at 18.3 over 17 games and SF at 21.8 over 17 games.

MIA: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to MIN's 0.67

MIA is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; MIN is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season MIA was at 1.35 over 17 games and MIN at 1.41 over 17 games.

MIA: 41.5% third-down conversion rate to MIN's 30.2%

MIA is at 41.5% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; MIN is at 30.2% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season MIA was at 34.9% over 17 games and MIN at 31.8% over 17 games.

GB: 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate to TB's 0%

GB is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; TB is at 0% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 56% over 17 games and TB at 44.8% over 17 games.

CAR: 45.2% third downs allowed to DET's 56.1%

DET is at 56.1% third downs allowed over 3 games; CAR is at 45.2% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Next college slate · OCT 2

BDL lists 2 covered college games on the next college slate. All 2 kickoff times are confirmed.

Bryson Stott: .988 OPS in Last 15 Days

Stott has a .988 OPS across 46 AB in the last 15 days, 0.252 above his .736 season mark. He is a solid hitter on a heater, and runs like this usually settle back toward the season level. At a 0.5 total-bases line in Atlanta he needs just one hit, which is the kind of bar his current form and 10 home runs support.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

WSH: 2.7 sack yards lost per game to IND's 13.7

Washington has lost 2.7 yards a game on sacks over three games, the Colts 13.7. The Colts' number is close to last season's 15.1, but Washington's is way under its 12.5 from a year ago. That drop over three games is likely to move back toward normal. The Colts keep losing yardage to sacks, which puts them in longer down-and-distances.

Jeremy Pena: 1.025 OPS in Last 15 Days

Pena has a 1.025 OPS over his last 53 AB against an .802 season mark, so a good hitter is running a bit hotter than usual. The 0.223 bump rests on the largest sample in this group and a strong baseline with 22 home runs. On a 1.5 total-bases line against Chicago he needs an extra-base hit or two singles, a reasonable ask given his season power.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Elijah Molden (CB) is questionable for LAC

The Chargers listed the cornerback as questionable on Sep 29 for the game in Seattle, so his availability is uncertain. The report gives no injury detail. If he sits, Seattle's receivers could face a thinner secondary, so confirm his status before you bet their props.

Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable for NO

New Orleans listed the cornerback as questionable on Sep 29 against Atlanta, so he may or may not play. The report gives no injury or backup. If he is out, the Falcons receivers get an easier look, so check before betting their yardage.

MIN has won 3 straight

MIN has won its first three and hosts MIA, which has lost its first three. Three wins is a short run, and the fact sheet doesn't list the opponents, so it's unclear how tough the schedule has been. Unbeaten home teams against winless visitors tend to get big spreads, and a bettor can check whether the price is paying for three games of evidence or for a fourth win already assumed.

IND: 36.4% third downs allowed to WSH's 47.1%

Indianapolis has allowed 36.4% on third down over three games, and Washington is at 47.1%. That Washington rate is high enough that some regression is likely, but for now it gives the Colts offense more room to sustain drives. Pair it with Washington's stronger run defense on the other ledger before deciding which side the matchup favors.

NO: 211.7 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 263

New Orleans has allowed 211.7 passing yards a game over three games, while Atlanta has allowed 263. Passing yardage can be inflated by game script, like opponents throwing late while trailing, and the sheet does not show that context. The split favors the Saints passing attack getting more room, which is worth weighing on passing props.

SF: 105.7 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 143.7

San Francisco has allowed 105.7 rushing yards a game over three games, while Denver has allowed 143.7. With no opponent detail, three games is not enough to call Denver's run defense a problem for good. If it holds, San Francisco has the better chance to control this game on the ground at home.

LAC has lost 3 straight

LAC carries a 3-game losing streak into this one, sitting at 0-3 on the season. They face SEA in LAC @ SEA. Current-2026 standings through 2026-09-28.

SF has won 3 straight

SF has won all three of its games and hosts DEN next. Three games is a short run, and without opponents on the fact sheet, it's hard to say how much of the record is the team and how much is the schedule. At home with a clean start, SF will likely be priced as a clear favorite, so the question is whether three games justify the size of the number.

LV has won 3 straight

LV has won its first three, including one division game, and now hosts KC, also 3-0. The fact sheet doesn't show who LV beat to get here, so this is the first clear measure of whether the start holds against a team with the same record. For a bettor, two unbeaten teams meeting tends to show which 3-0 was built on softer ground, and three games isn't much to decide that in advance.

KC has won 3 straight

KC has won all three games so far, one of them against an AFC West rival. The road trip to LV puts that unbeaten start against another unbeaten team, so something has to give. Three games is a small sample for both sides, which makes this one more of a test of the records than a confirmation of them.

MIA has lost 3 straight

MIA is 0-3 and heads to MIN, a team that has won all three of its games. Two records built over three games each make this look lopsided, and the fact sheet doesn't show who either side beat or lost to. When the matchup is winless on the road against unbeaten at home, the line usually leans hard toward the home side, so a bettor can judge whether three games earned that much of a gap.

HOU has lost 3 straight

HOU has lost its first three games, and DAL comes to town next. Three games is too few to say what this team is, and without opponents or margins on the sheet, the record alone can't separate a slow start from a real problem. The spot to think about is a home team priced off an 0-3 record, which can leave some value if the losses were closer than the standings suggest.

TEN has lost 3 straight

TEN has lost all three of its games and now goes on the road to BAL. The fact sheet doesn't list the opponents or scores, so three losses don't tell you whether this team is bad or just unlucky. A road winless team is usually the one the market is lowest on, and a bettor can ask whether the number reflects three games or a full season of evidence.

TB has lost 3 straight

TB has lost all three games it has played. Three games is a small sample, and the fact sheet doesn't show the opponents or the margins, so an 0-3 start can mean three close losses as easily as three blowouts. At home against GB, the useful check is whether the line has moved further than three games justify, since winless teams often get marked down hard early.

BUF has won 3 straight

BUF carries a 3-game winning streak into this one, sitting at 3-0 on the season. They face NE in NE @ BUF. Current-2026 standings through 2026-09-28.

TEN: 19.7 points allowed per game to BAL's 26

TEN is at 19.7 points allowed per game over 3 games; BAL is at 26 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 28.1 over 17 games and BAL at 23.4 over 17 games.

NO: 74 offensive plays per game to ATL's 63.3

ATL is at 63.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; NO is at 74 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 61.6 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.

ATL: 13.7 sack yards lost per game to NO's 24.3

ATL is at 13.7 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; NO is at 24.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 12.9 over 17 games and NO at 18.7 over 17 games.

DET: 78.6% red-zone scoring rate to CAR's 61.5%

DET is at 78.6% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; CAR is at 61.5% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DET was at 62.5% over 17 games and CAR at 53.3% over 17 games.

BAL: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to TEN's 50%

TEN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; BAL is at 66.7% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 57.6% over 17 games and BAL at 47.5% over 17 games.

PHI: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to LAR's 50%

LAR is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; PHI is at 66.7% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAR was at 63.2% over 17 games and PHI at 70.5% over 17 games.

NYJ: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to CHI's 50%

NYJ is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; CHI is at 50% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and CHI at 58.2% over 17 games.

KC: 57.1% red-zone scoring allowed to LV's 77.8%

Kansas City has allowed scores on 57.1% of opponent red-zone trips over three games, while Las Vegas has allowed 77.8%. Red-zone rates swing on just a handful of possessions, so both numbers can move quickly. The gap still hints that Kansas City turns more of its own trips into points in this matchup, which matters for touchdown and totals thinking.

MIA (0-3) at MIN (3-0)

This is the widest split on the board: Miami is 0-3 at -50 and 0-2 on the road, while Minnesota is 3-0 at +30 and won its lone home game. A -50 margin across three games means the Dolphins have been losing by a lot, which is harder to write off as bad luck than close losses would be. Both runs could cool, but the margins back up the records. The question for a bettor is whether the line has already priced in that gap.

DAL (1-2) at HOU (0-3)

Dallas is 1-2 but +6 on the year, a record that undersells a team scoring more than it allows. Houston is 0-3 at -21 and 0-2 at home, so the Texans have not found wins in their own building. The Cowboys are 0-1 on the road, a single game. The margin gap favors Dallas, and a team at +6 with a losing record is a common spot for the record to catch up with the play.

TEN (0-3) at BAL (2-1)

Tennessee is 0-3 at -22, losing three straight, but a -22 margin across three losses points to games that stayed competitive rather than blowouts. Baltimore is 2-1 at +14 and, oddly, 0-1 at home, one game that says little. The Ravens have the better profile, though a +14 margin is modest. The Titans losing streak is the loudest number here, and it can push a line further than the margins support.

JAX (2-1) at CIN (2-1)

Same 2-1 record, very different margins: Jacksonville is +46 and Cincinnati is +17. The Jaguars lost their only road game and the Bengals won their only home game, which is one game each, far too small to call a trend. The margin gap says Jacksonville has been the better team so far, and records like these tend to catch up to margins. A bettor pricing this off matching records may be underrating the road side.

NYJ (1-2) at CHI (2-1)

The Jets are 1-2 but +3 on the year, which means their losses have been close and their record undersells them. Chicago is 2-1 at +36, so the Bears have been winning by real margins. Both teams are 1-1 in their home or road split, so the location adds little here. A team with a positive margin and a losing record is the kind of profile that tends to even out, which matters if the market prices the Jets off the 1-2 alone.

Warren Brinson

Calf · Did not practice

ATL has 3 more days of rest

Atlanta has 5 days since its last game and New Orleans has 2, a 3-day edge for the visitors. The Saints have less time to heal bumps and prepare, which tends to mean a lighter practice week and a narrower script. When you size up the home side in this spot, factor in that the calendar favors the Falcons.

GB has 3 more days of rest

Green Bay gets 5 days between games and Tampa Bay gets only 2, so the Packers have 3 more days to recover, install a plan and travel. The team on the shorter turnaround usually trims practice and leans on a simpler game plan. The rest gap favors the road side here, so weigh it when you judge how much credit Tampa Bay's home field deserves.

Demarcus Robinson (WR) is on injured reserve for SF

The 49ers placed Robinson (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR) is reserve-dnr for SF

Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Sunday that he's not viewing Aiyuk as an option for the 49ers while the club contends with multiple injuries at receiver, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 21.

Jonah Coleman (RB) is on injured reserve for DEN

Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 26.

Jack Bech (WR) is on injured reserve for LV

The Raiders put Bech on injured reserve Tuesday, Sep 29, with a forearm injury, so he will not play against Kansas City. The sheet does not say who replaces his snaps, so watch the Raiders' depth chart this week to see which receiver moves up before looking at any Las Vegas receiving props.

Treydan Stukes (S) is questionable for LV

Las Vegas lists safety Treydan Stukes as questionable against Kansas City as of Sep 29, which leaves his status uncertain. The report names no injury or backup, so confirm the inactive list before leaning on Kansas City's passing props in this matchup.

De'Von Achane (RB) is on injured reserve for MIA

Achane went on injured reserve Monday, Sep 28, with a knee injury, so he is out for the trip to Minnesota and several games after it. The sheet does not name who takes his carries, so check the Dolphins' depth chart before betting any Miami running back prop. Expect the backfield work to be split until a clear lead back emerges.

Malik Hooker (S) is questionable for DAL

DAL lists Malik Hooker as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

DeMarvion Overshown (LB) is questionable for DAL

DAL lists DeMarvion Overshown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Bryce Harper: .664 OPS in Last 15 Days

Harper's .664 OPS over the last 15 days would be fine for most hitters, and it sits 0.201 below his .865 season mark. Fifty-three at-bats is a short window for a bat with his track record, so he is more likely to move back up than stay here. In Atlanta, anchor his props to the season number.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Josiah Trotter (LB) is questionable for TB

TB lists Josiah Trotter as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Rueben Bain Jr. (LB) is questionable for TB

TB lists Rueben Bain Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Anthony Campbell (DT) is questionable for GB

GB lists Anthony Campbell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Warren Brinson (DT) is questionable for GB

Green Bay has defensive tackle Warren Brinson listed as questionable for the Tampa Bay game as of Sep 29, meaning he may or may not play. The report gives no injury or replacement, so the inactive list before kickoff is the check before betting Tampa Bay's run game.

Micah Parsons (DE) is pup-r for GB

Micah Parsons remains on the reserve list with a knee injury, and Matt LaFleur said Monday he has had no setbacks but will not be cleared to practice this week. That rules him out at Tampa Bay. Without him, the Packers lose their best pass rusher, so price Green Bay's pressure on the Bucs quarterback lower than a healthy version of this defense.

Ronnie Rivers (RB) is on injured reserve for LAR

The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Kamren Kinchens (S) is questionable for LAR

LAR lists Kamren Kinchens as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Tyler Nubin (S) is questionable for NYG

The Giants list safety Tyler Nubin as questionable against Arizona as of Sep 29, so he may or may not play. With no injury or backup named, the final inactive list is the thing to check before leaning on New York's pass defense in a total or a receiver prop.

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S) is questionable for ARI

Arizona lists safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson as questionable for the trip to New York as of Sep 29, which leaves his status for this game uncertain. The injury and his backup are not on the report, so wait for the inactive list before betting anything built on Arizona's back end.

Andrei Iosivas (WR) is on injured reserve for CIN

Cincinnati placed Andrei Iosivas on injured reserve Saturday with a thumb injury, so he is out against Jacksonville. His snaps go to the depth receivers behind him, and none of that is in doubt for this game.

B.J. Hill (DT) is questionable for CIN

Cincinnati has B.J. Hill, a defensive tackle, listed as questionable for the Jacksonville game as of Sep 29, which means his availability is uncertain. The report does not name the injury or a replacement, so check the final inactive list before betting anything that leans on Cincinnati's interior run defense.

Albert Regis (DT) is questionable for JAX

Jacksonville listed the defensive tackle as questionable on Sep 29 for the trip to Cincinnati, so his availability is uncertain. The report gives no injury or backup detail, so treat him as a lineup check before kickoff.

Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) is questionable for NYJ

The Jets listed the safety as questionable on Sep 29 for the game in Chicago, so he may not play. The report does not give the injury or who would take his snaps. If he sits, the Bears could find more room downfield, so check his status first.

Craig Woodson (S) is questionable for NE

New England listed the safety as questionable on Sep 29 for the game in Buffalo, so his status is uncertain. The report names no injury and no replacement, so confirm he is active before you bet on the Bills passing game.

A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

A.J. Brown is on injured reserve with a right ankle injury, so he will not play at Buffalo. He was seen Monday walking without a limp and wearing only a small wrap, which points to progress toward a return later on. For this game, the Patriots passing attack runs without him, so set expectations for the other receivers accordingly.

Frankie Luvu (LB) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Frankie Luvu as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Alec Pierce (WR) is on injured reserve for IND

Colts head coach Shane Steichen reiterated Monday that Pierce didn't undergo surgery on his left heel and is continuing to rehab the injury, James Boyd of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 28.

Nick Scott (S) is questionable for CAR

CAR lists Nick Scott as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Cade Mays (C) is ir-r for DET

Center Cade Mays is on injured reserve with a designation to return for Detroit, and the Sep 29 report says he is targeting a Week 7 comeback from a wrist injury. That timeline rules him out of the Carolina game. If he hits Week 7, that is the point where Detroit's interior line gets a piece back, so this matchup is played without him.

DET @ CAR carries a 50.5 market total

The current fanduel total is 50.5, 5 points above the 45.5 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.

KC: 7.93 yards per pass attempt to LV's 6.53

KC is at 7.93 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; LV is at 6.53 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season KC was at 5.65 over 17 games and LV at 4.94 over 17 games.

LAR: 7.37 yards per pass attempt to PHI's 5.93

LAR is at 7.37 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; PHI is at 5.93 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAR was at 7.24 over 17 games and PHI at 6.33 over 17 games.

NYG: 5.77 yards per play allowed to ARI's 6.57

The Giants are allowing 5.77 yards per play over three games, while Arizona sits at 6.57. Neither number is strong, and the gap between them is modest. Arizona's defense has been the easier one to move the ball against so far, which gives the Giants offense a slight edge in efficiency at home.

ARI: 1.33 sacks recorded per game to NYG's 0.33

Arizona has 1.33 sacks a game over three games, and the Giants have just 0.33. Both pass rushes have been quiet, and sack totals over three games can shift fast. The Giants' lack of pressure means Arizona's quarterback may have clean pockets, though one strong game from either front would change these numbers.

Christen Miller (DT) is questionable for NO

New Orleans has defensive tackle Christen Miller listed as questionable against Atlanta as of Sep 29, so he may or may not play. The report gives no injury or replacement, so confirm the inactive list before betting on Atlanta's run game in this division matchup.

WSH: 1 sack taken per game to IND's 2

IND is at 2 sacks taken per game over 3 games; WSH is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season IND was at 2.07 over 17 games and WSH at 2.31 over 17 games.

CHI: 2 sacks taken per game to NYJ's 3

NYJ is at 3 sacks taken per game over 3 games; CHI is at 2 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NYJ was at 3.75 over 17 games and CHI at 1.85 over 17 games.

JAX: 1.33 sacks taken per game to CIN's 2.33

Jacksonville has been sacked 1.33 times a game over three games, Cincinnati 2.33. Last season it was the reverse: JAX 3.42, CIN 2.12. The Jaguars' big drop over three games may regress some, while the Bengals are right near their normal. In this game, Cincinnati's quarterback faces more pressure risk than he did last season, and Jacksonville's protection has been better so far.

LAR: 1.67 sacks taken per game to PHI's 2.67

LAR is at 1.67 sacks taken per game over 3 games; PHI is at 2.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAR was at 1.77 over 17 games and PHI at 2.33 over 17 games.

ATL: 2.33 sacks taken per game to NO's 3.33

ATL is at 2.33 sacks taken per game over 3 games; NO is at 3.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 1.86 over 17 games and NO at 3.06 over 17 games.

Jonathon Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for CAR

Brooks is expected to undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a core-muscle injury and is likely to miss at least six weeks, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 23.

Ben Rice: 1.124 OPS in Last 15 Days

Rice has a 1.124 OPS over 45 AB in the last 15 days, up 0.227 on an .897 season mark that was already excellent. With 41 home runs, he stays dangerous even if he cools off. At a 0.5 total-bases line against Boston he needs one hit, and both his recent and season numbers back him there.

P 4-for-5, 11 TB

Rico Dowdle

Toe · Did not practice

Elgton Jenkins

Concussion · Did not practice

Tylan Wallace

Knee · Did not practice

Aaron Banks

Toe · Did not practice

LAC (0-3) at SEA (2-1)

The Chargers are 0-3 at -32 with three straight losses, and the margin says they have been beaten soundly. Seattle is 2-1 at +25, coming off a loss, and 1-0 at home. One home game is thin evidence, but the season margins line up with the records on both sides. A Seahawks team off a loss at home against a winless visitor is a spot where the market often leans heavily toward the home side.

DEN (2-1) at SF (3-0)

Denver has won two straight to reach 2-1, but sits at -10 on the year, a record that flatters the team. San Francisco is 3-0 at +48 and 2-0 at home, with the margins to match its record. The Broncos lost their only road game, one game of evidence. A winning streak on a negative margin is the profile most likely to slip, especially on the road against a team this far ahead on point differential.

Zach Bako-Bewele

Knee · Did not practice

Jayden Reed

Neck · Did not practice

Julian Love (S) is questionable for SEA

SEA lists Julian Love as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Brandon Pili (DT) is questionable for SEA

SEA lists Brandon Pili as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Ty Okada (S) is questionable for SEA

Seattle has safety Ty Okada listed as questionable against the Chargers as of Sep 29, meaning he may or may not suit up. The report does not name the injury or who fills in, so wait for the inactive list before betting the Chargers' pass game.

Dalvin Tomlinson (DT) is questionable for LAC

The Chargers list defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson as questionable for the Seattle game as of Sep 29, so his availability is uncertain. There is no injury or replacement on the report, so check the inactive list before betting on Seattle's run game.

NYJ: 0.33 turnovers committed per game to CHI's 1

NYJ is at 0.33 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; CHI is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NYJ was at 1.35 over 17 games and CHI at 0.65 over 17 games.

BAL: 4 red-zone trips per game to TEN's 2.67

TEN is at 2.67 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; BAL is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 1.94 over 17 games and BAL at 3.47 over 17 games.

ATL: 0.67 fumbles lost per game to NO's 1.33

ATL is at 0.67 fumbles lost per game over 3 games; NO is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 0.59 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.

ARI: 21 points per game to NYG's 15.3

ARI is at 21 points per game over 3 games; NYG is at 15.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ARI was at 20.9 over 17 games and NYG at 22.4 over 17 games.

MIA: 5.07 yards per play to MIN's 4.3

Miami gains 5.07 yards a play over three games, Minnesota 4.3, and both are below last season's 5.4 and 4.82. Last game each team had 3 plays of 20-plus yards, including Malik Willis's 44-yarder to Chris Bell and Kyler Murray's 41-yard touchdown to Jordan Addison. So the gap in efficiency comes from snaps outside the big plays. With the explosive-play count even, this matchup likely comes down to which offense stays on schedule on shorter gains.

NE: 49.7 penalty yards per game to BUF's 73

NE is at 49.7 penalty yards per game over 3 games; BUF is at 73 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NE was at 50.2 over 17 games and BUF at 49.9 over 17 games.

JAX: 119.3 rushing yards per game to CIN's 91.3

JAX is at 119.3 rushing yards per game over 3 games; CIN is at 91.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season JAX was at 115.1 over 17 games and CIN at 93.6 over 17 games.

ARI: 44.8% third downs allowed to NYG's 54.5%

Arizona's defense has let opponents convert 44.8% of third downs over 3 games, and that's still better than the 54.5% the Giants have allowed. Neither number is good: both defenses are getting off the field less than half the time. The sheet doesn't say who these offenses were, and 3 games is a short sample for third-down rates, which bounce around. Both offenses may extend drives here, which matters most if you're looking at totals.

JAX: 0 fumbles lost per game to CIN's 0.67

JAX is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 3 games; CIN is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season JAX was at 0.35 over 17 games and CIN at 0.41 over 17 games.

ATL (1-2) at NO (1-2), a division game

Both teams are 1-2, but New Orleans at -2 has played close while Atlanta at -17 has been outscored more clearly. The Falcons are 1-1 on the road and the Saints lost their one home game, one game that tells you little. Division games between struggling teams often stay tight. The margins give New Orleans the edge on quality, even with matching records.

GB: 0.67 fumbles lost per game to TB's 1.33

GB is at 0.67 fumbles lost per game over 3 games; TB is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 0.35 over 17 games and TB at 0.29 over 17 games.

KC: 0.67 turnovers committed per game to LV's 1.33

KC is at 0.67 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; LV is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season KC was at 0.88 over 17 games and LV at 1.35 over 17 games.

Jesus Luzardo: 0.40 ERA over his last 3 starts

Luzardo has allowed 1 earned run in 22.2 innings over his last 3 starts while striking out 27, so he is missing bats and keeping hitters off the board. His 2.86 season ERA says he was already good, and this is that version turned up. A 0.40 ERA will not last, but the strikeouts give it a real base heading into Atlanta.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K

SF: 0.67 turnovers committed per game to DEN's 1.33

DEN is at 1.33 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; SF is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DEN was at 1 over 17 games and SF at 1.29 over 17 games.

SEA: 1.33 turnovers committed per game to LAC's 2

LAC is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; SEA is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAC was at 1.24 over 17 games and SEA at 1.65 over 17 games.

WSH: 1 takeaways per game to IND's 0.33

Washington's defense has forced 1 turnover a game over 3 games, while Indianapolis sits at 0.33, about one takeaway in 3 games. Turnovers swing a lot on tipped balls and fumble luck, so a gap this small over 3 games says little about either unit. The sheet doesn't name the offenses these teams faced, so there's no way to tell whether the schedule helped. For this game, don't lean on the turnover edge as if it's a skill Washington owns.

DEN: 1.33 takeaways per game to SF's 0.67

Denver has forced 1.33 turnovers a game over 3 games, double the 0.67 San Francisco has managed. In raw terms that's a handful of takeaways against a couple, and turnovers are among the noisiest stats in football over 3 games. There's no opponent detail on the sheet to show whether Denver faced mistake-prone offenses. The takeaway gap alone is a thin reason to shade toward Denver in this spot.

LAC: 2 takeaways per game to SEA's 1.33

LAC is at 2 takeaways per game over 3 games; SEA is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

M.J. Stewart (S) is pup-r for HOU

The Texans designated Stewart (quadriceps) for return from their reserve/PUP list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

TEN: 44.3 penalty yards per game to BAL's 66

TEN is at 44.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; BAL is at 66 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 59.5 over 17 games and BAL at 43.9 over 17 games.

Teven Jenkins (G) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Teven Jenkins as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Ben Bartch (G) is questionable for DET

DET lists Ben Bartch as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Kayode Awosika (G) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Kayode Awosika as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Brenden Schooler (S) is nfi-r for NE

The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window for Schooler (back) on Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G) is questionable for BUF

BUF lists Ar'maj Reed-Adams as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

Shemar Turner (DT) is pup-r for CHI

The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Turner (knee) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.

Noah Sewell (LB) is pup-r for CHI

The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell (Achilles) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.

DAL: 5.53 yards per play to HOU's 4.8

Dallas moves the ball better per snap, though its 5.53 is below last season's 5.96 and Houston's 4.8 is under its 5.1. Both teams had just 2 plays of 20-plus last time out, so neither offense is living on chunk gains right now. Dak Prescott's 49-yarder to CeeDee Lamb shows where Dallas can flip a drive. Over 3 games both numbers sit a bit low against last season, which argues for some drift back up for each side.

CHI: 5.83 yards per play to NYJ's 5.1

Both offenses gain about the same per snap, but they get there differently. The Jets are up to 5.1 a play after 4.36 last season, and their last game had 6 gains of 20-plus, with Geno Smith hitting Kenyon Sadiq for 43 and a 24-yard score. Chicago's 5.83 sits close to last season's 5.71, so that looks like who the Bears are. Three games is a short run for the Jets' jump, so price New York's big-play surge as less settled than Chicago's steady number.

Alec Bohm (bats R) draws Chris Sale (LHP), batting 4th

Bohm is a much better hitter against lefties: an .816 OPS over 178 at-bats against them, .643 in 389 against righties. That split is why he bats cleanup against Chris Sale, and 178 at-bats makes it a real track record. His overall line blends in all the weaker work against righties, so his season totals understate him tonight. Look at his props through the .816.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB

Ed Ingram (G) is questionable for HOU

HOU lists Ed Ingram as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

LAR: 66.3 offensive plays per game to PHI's 57.3

LAR is at 66.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; PHI is at 57.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAR was at 63.9 over 17 games and PHI at 59.4 over 17 games.

Aaron Banks (G) is questionable for GB

GB lists Aaron Banks as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

LAR: 4.5 yards per play allowed to PHI's 5.17

The Rams have allowed 4.5 yards per play over 3 games, while the Eagles have given up 5.17. Yards per play settles faster than most defensive stats, so this is a real early sign the Rams are harder to move on. The sheet doesn't name who either team played, so schedule strength can't be ruled out as part of the gap. For this game, the Rams' defense has shown more resistance so far, which is useful context when sizing up the Philadelphia offense.

PIT: 49.3 penalty yards per game to CLE's 69.7

PIT is at 49.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; CLE is at 69.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season PIT was at 47.2 over 17 games and CLE at 49.4 over 17 games.

Alex Bregman: 1.097 OPS in Last 15 Days

Bregman has a 1.097 OPS over the last 15 days, but on only 32 AB, against an .819 season mark. The 0.278 jump sits on a small sample, and his steady season level with 28 home runs is the truer picture. At a 0.5 total-bases line against the Cubs, his track record carries that one-hit bar more than the short hot stretch does.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Cam Smith: .454 OPS in Last 15 Days

Smith has a .454 OPS over the last 15 days in 41 AB, 0.215 below a .669 season baseline that was modest to begin with. Some bounce back is likely on so few at-bats, but the ceiling is that season level. Against Houston, keep expectations near .669 rather than a breakout.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

PIT: 4.27 yards per rush attempt to CLE's 3.43

Pittsburgh's run game is right where it was last season, 4.27 a carry against 4.26, so that number looks real. Cleveland has dropped from 3.9 to 3.43 over 3 games, which leaves the Browns leaning harder on other ways to move it. If the Steelers can run it steadily and Cleveland can't, Pittsburgh gets to control pace, and that matters most in a game that stays close.

SEA: 0.67 interceptions thrown per game to LAC's 1.33

LAC is at 1.33 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; SEA is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAC was at 0.82 over 17 games and SEA at 0.88 over 17 games.

KC: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to LV's 1

KC is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; LV is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season KC was at 1.88 over 17 games and LV at 1.88 over 17 games.

George Lombard Jr.: .885 OPS in Last 15 Days

Lombard has an .885 OPS over his last 46 AB, up 0.186 from a .699 season mark. That is a below-average season hitter on a good two-week run, and the season number is where he likelier lands. A 0.5 total-bases line against Boston asks for one hit, which the recent form helps, though his season level keeps it closer than the streak suggests.

P 3-for-4, 3 TB

DET: 0 interceptions thrown per game to CAR's 0.67

DET is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; CAR is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DET was at 0.47 over 17 games and CAR at 0.71 over 17 games.

SF: 0.33 interceptions thrown per game to DEN's 1

DEN is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; SF is at 0.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DEN was at 0.65 over 17 games and SF at 0.94 over 17 games.

ATL: 22.7 points allowed per game to NO's 27.7

ATL is at 22.7 points allowed per game over 3 games; NO is at 27.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ATL was at 23.6 over 17 games and NO at 22.5 over 17 games.

CLE: 17.3 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 25.7

PIT is at 25.7 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; CLE is at 17.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season PIT was at 14.8 over 17 games and CLE at 20.3 over 17 games.

GB: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to TB's 1

GB is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; TB is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 1.47 over 17 games and TB at 1.71 over 17 games.

SF: 4.9 yards per play allowed to DEN's 5.57

San Francisco has allowed 4.9 yards per play over 3 games, compared with 5.57 for Denver. That's a meaningful early gap: Denver's defense is giving up noticeably more on each snap. With no opponent info on the sheet, 3 games leaves room for schedule to explain part of it. Heading into this one, San Francisco's offense has the friendlier matchup on a per-play basis.

HOU: 67.3 offensive plays per game to DAL's 59

DAL is at 59 offensive plays per game over 3 games; HOU is at 67.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DAL was at 65.9 over 17 games and HOU at 64 over 17 games.

SEA: 87 rushing yards allowed per game to LAC's 116.3

LAC is at 116.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; SEA is at 87 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC

Through 3 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 627 passing yards, completed 59.1% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF

Through 3 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 789 passing yards, completed 72.3% of his passes and averaged 9.51 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN

Through 3 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 605 passing yards, completed 60.2% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV

Through 3 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 661 passing yards, completed 67.4% of his passes and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Patrick Mahomes is the projected starting quarterback for KC

Through 3 games in 2026, Patrick Mahomes threw for 812 passing yards, completed 68.4% of his passes and averaged 8.29 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3587 yards, completed 62.7% and averaged 7.14 yards per attempt, 22-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

Through 3 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 616 passing yards, completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 7.61 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN

Through 2 games in 2026, Kyler Murray threw for 186 passing yards, completed 52.9% of his passes and averaged 5.47 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA

Through 3 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 627 passing yards, completed 57% of his passes and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU

Through 3 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 794 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 6.62 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL

Through 3 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 730 passing yards, completed 69.5% of his passes and averaged 6.95 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

Through 3 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 745 passing yards, completed 69.7% of his passes and averaged 9.8 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN

Through 3 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 504 passing yards, completed 62.5% of his passes and averaged 5.73 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Jalon Daniels is the projected starting quarterback for TB

In his first 2026 game, Jalon Daniels threw for 0 passing yards, completed 0% of his passes and averaged 0 yards per attempt. His 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

Nico Hoerner: .498 OPS in Last 15 Days

Hoerner has a .498 OPS over the last 15 days across 48 AB, 0.169 under his .667 season mark. The drop is moderate, and his season number is not a high bar to return to. In San Diego, the recent stretch is a mild knock, and the season line tells you more.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Michael King: 5.29 ERA over his last 3 starts

King has given up 10 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 3 starts, well off his 3.21 season ERA. Traffic is up only a little, a 1.29 WHIP against 1.18 for the season, so the runs have outpaced the baserunners, which points to bad sequencing over 3 starts. Against the Cubs, ask whether the slide has pushed his price further than that traffic supports.

P 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K

Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB

Through 3 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 844 passing yards, completed 52.4% of his passes and averaged 6.81 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TEN: 9 sack yards lost per game to BAL's 17

TEN is at 9 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; BAL is at 17 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 26.1 over 17 games and BAL at 17.2 over 17 games.

Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI

Through 3 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 620 passing yards, completed 64.4% of his passes and averaged 7.13 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR

Through 3 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 872 passing yards, completed 60.4% of his passes and averaged 7.86 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Jameis Winston is the projected starting quarterback for NYG

Through 2 games in 2026, Jameis Winston threw for 229 passing yards, completed 51% of his passes and averaged 4.67 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 567 yards, completed 56.1% and averaged 8.59 yards per attempt, 2-2 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI

Through 3 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 652 passing yards, completed 70.1% of his passes and averaged 5.57 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT

Through 3 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 700 passing yards, completed 58.4% of his passes and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE

Through 3 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 587 passing yards, completed 68.3% of his passes and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt. His 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.

Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND

Through 3 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 611 passing yards, completed 66.3% of his passes and averaged 6.24 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN

Through 3 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 743 passing yards, completed 70.9% of his passes and averaged 7.21 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Marcus Mariota is the projected starting quarterback for WSH

Through 2 games in 2026, Marcus Mariota threw for 294 passing yards, completed 63.8% of his passes and averaged 6.25 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 1695 yards, completed 61.2% and averaged 7.47 yards per attempt, 10-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

Through 3 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 585 passing yards, completed 63.8% of his passes and averaged 7.31 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-6 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ

Through 3 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 783 passing yards, completed 75.5% of his passes and averaged 7.68 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Case Keenum is the projected starting quarterback for CHI

In his first 2026 game, Case Keenum threw for 247 passing yards, completed 70.6% of his passes and averaged 7.26 yards per attempt. His 2-0 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO

Through 3 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 917 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 6.95 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL

In his first 2026 game, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 256 passing yards, completed 72% of his passes and averaged 10.24 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 1982 yards, completed 60.1% and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt, 9-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

Bryce Young is the projected starting quarterback for CAR

Through 3 games in 2026, Bryce Young threw for 939 passing yards, completed 59.5% of his passes and averaged 7.76 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3011 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, 23-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET

Through 3 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 802 passing yards, completed 70.6% of his passes and averaged 7.36 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA

Through 2 games in 2026, Sam Darnold threw for 392 passing yards, completed 68.1% of his passes and averaged 8.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

David Njoku (TE) is on injured reserve for LAC

The Chargers placed Njoku (fibula) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.

Josh Oliver (TE) is on injured reserve for MIN

The Vikings placed Oliver (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.

Brett Thorson (P) is questionable for MIN

MIN lists Brett Thorson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

NYJ: 87.3 rushing yards allowed per game to CHI's 117

The Jets have held opponents to 87.3 rushing yards a game over 3 games, while Chicago has allowed 117. Rushing totals depend heavily on game script, since teams that fall behind stop running, and the sheet doesn't show who these defenses faced. Over 3 games, that's enough to note and too little to trust fully. If you think the Jets' run defense is real, it points to Chicago leaning on the pass here.

SF: 0 sack yards lost per game to DEN's 7.7

DEN is at 7.7 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; SF is at 0 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DEN was at 9.5 over 17 games and SF at 10.7 over 17 games.

Bryce Harper (.657 vs LHP) replaces Adolis Garcia at RF tonight

Harper moves to right field and bats third tonight, which puts him straight into a lefty matchup with Chris Sale. He has a .657 OPS against left-handers over 225 at-bats, well below his .865 season line, and that sample is big enough to trust. For props against Sale, weigh the lefty split over his season average.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

DET: 31:32 time of possession per game to CAR's 28:27

DET is at 31:32 time of possession per game over 3 games; CAR is at 28:27 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DET was at 30:33 over 17 games and CAR at 29:51 over 17 games.

PIT: 63.3 offensive plays per game to CLE's 55.7

PIT is at 63.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; CLE is at 55.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season PIT was at 58.1 over 17 games and CLE at 60.6 over 17 games.

PIT: 207.7 team passing yards per game to CLE's 178.3

PIT is at 207.7 team passing yards per game over 3 games; CLE is at 178.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season PIT was at 202.4 over 17 games and CLE at 165.2 over 17 games.

DAL: 6.57 yards per pass attempt to HOU's 5.53

DAL is at 6.57 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; HOU is at 5.53 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DAL was at 7 over 17 games and HOU at 6.2 over 17 games.

MIA: 6.1 yards per pass attempt to MIN's 5.07

MIA is at 6.1 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; MIN is at 5.07 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season MIA was at 6 over 17 games and MIN at 5.1 over 17 games.

GB: 41.7% red-zone scoring rate to TB's 30%

GB is at 41.7% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; TB is at 30% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 57.6% over 17 games and TB at 54% over 17 games.

At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 2.98 ERA

Schlittler is good at home and close to untouchable on the road, a 2.98 ERA in the Bronx against 1.16 over 109.0 road innings. Hitters bat only .225 off him at Yankee Stadium, so the park costs him some runs without exposing him. The split rests on 84.2 home innings across 16 games, so it should hold. Against Boston tonight, price him off the 2.98.

P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K

KC: 4.6 yards per play allowed to LV's 5.17

KC is at 4.6 yards per play allowed over 3 games; LV is at 5.17 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

NE: 4.87 yards per play allowed to BUF's 5.43

New England has allowed 4.87 yards per play over 3 games, and Buffalo has allowed 5.43. That's a solid early edge for the Patriots' defense on a stat that stabilizes fairly quickly. The sheet has no opponent detail, so it's unclear how much the offenses faced shaped these numbers. For this game, New England's defense has earned some credit, and Buffalo's has given up more per snap.

NYJ: 171 passing yards allowed per game to CHI's 207

NYJ is at 171 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; CHI is at 207 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Jordan Hancock (CB) is on injured reserve for BUF

The Bills placed Hancock (hamstring) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 26.

Omar Cooper Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

The Jets are expected to place Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 19.

Jalen Davis (CB) is on injured reserve for CIN

Cincinnati moved Jalen Davis to injured reserve Tuesday with a hamstring injury, so he misses at least the Jacksonville game and more. IR takes him out for multiple weeks, which leaves the Bengals cornerback room short one body. The Jaguars passing game faces a thinner secondary as a result.

Will Johnson (CB) is on injured reserve for ARI

Arizona placed cornerback Will Johnson on injured reserve with a neck injury on Sep 23, so he misses the trip to the Giants. Injured reserve means he is out for several weeks at minimum. The sheet does not name his replacement, so expect the Cardinals to lean on depth at corner in this one.

Myles Garrett (DE) is on injured reserve for LAR

Garrett (knee) is facing a six-week recovery from surgery on his left knee, but the pass rusher is determined to be back before then, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network and ESPN reports. Reported Sep 27.

Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) is on injured reserve for GB

The Packers placed Bako-Bewele (knee) on injured reserve Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 29.

Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL

Baltimore put rookie receiver Ja'Kobi Lane on injured reserve after wrist surgery, reported Sep 16, so he is out against Tennessee. Coach Jesse Minter confirmed the surgery. The sheet names no replacement, so his targets go back to the rest of the Ravens' receiver group for now.

Nick Samac (C) is on injured reserve for MIN

The Vikings placed Samac (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 26.

De'Zhaun Stribling (WR) is on injured reserve for SF

The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.

Trey Pipkins III (OT) is on injured reserve for LAC

The Chargers placed Pipkins (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for NO

Tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. had ankle surgery the week of Sep 26 and is on injured reserve for New Orleans, so he misses the Atlanta game. Surgery points to a longer absence than a routine short stint. With a tackle out, the Saints' pass protection is the spot to think about in this matchup.

BAL: 59.3 offensive plays per game to TEN's 52.3

TEN is at 52.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; BAL is at 59.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and BAL at 57.3 over 17 games.

TEN: 55.6% red-zone scoring allowed to BAL's 70%

TEN is at 55.6% red-zone scoring allowed over 3 games; BAL is at 70% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

CHI: 4 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 3

NYJ is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; CHI is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NYJ was at 2.24 over 17 games and CHI at 3.24 over 17 games.

ARI: 3.67 red-zone trips per game to NYG's 2.67

ARI is at 3.67 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; NYG is at 2.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ARI was at 3.59 over 17 games and NYG at 3.47 over 17 games.

SEA: 4 red-zone trips per game to LAC's 3

LAC is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; SEA is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAC was at 3.35 over 17 games and SEA at 3.47 over 17 games.

PIT (2-1) at CLE (2-1), a division game

Both sides are 2-1 with negative margins: Pittsburgh at -7 and Cleveland at -17, so both records flatter the teams. The Browns have won two straight and won their only home game, while the Steelers lost their lone road game. Winning records on negative margins tend to regress. In a division game where neither team has outscored opponents, a bettor should expect a close, grinding game more than a clear favorite.

GB (1-2) at TB (0-3)

Green Bay is 1-2 at -35, a margin that points to at least one heavy loss, and 1-1 on the road. Tampa Bay is 0-3 at -17 and 0-2 at home, with three straight losses. The Bucs record looks worse, but their margin is actually the better of the two. That makes this a spot where the winless team may be closer to the visitor than the records suggest.

DAL: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to HOU's 28.6%

DAL is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; HOU is at 28.6% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DAL was at 62.9% over 17 games and HOU at 57.9% over 17 games.

DET: 53.3 penalty yards per game to CAR's 70

DET is at 53.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; CAR is at 70 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DET was at 42.2 over 17 games and CAR at 44.8 over 17 games.

LAR: 101.3 rushing yards allowed per game to PHI's 127.3

The Rams have allowed 101.3 rushing yards a game over 3 games, while the Eagles have allowed 127.3. Rushing yards pile up when a defense is protecting a lead or playing from behind, and the sheet doesn't say how these games went or who the opponents were. Over 3 games, the gap can move quickly. Philadelphia's run defense has been the softer one so far, which favors a Rams offense willing to stay on the ground.

GB: 5.93 yards per pass attempt to TB's 5.03

GB is at 5.93 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; TB is at 5.03 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 6.85 over 17 games and TB at 6.04 over 17 games.

JAX: 22.3 first downs per game to CIN's 19

JAX is at 22.3 first downs per game over 3 games; CIN is at 19 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season JAX was at 20.9 over 17 games and CIN at 20.7 over 17 games.

JAX: 52.9% third-down conversion rate to CIN's 46.3%

JAX is at 52.9% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; CIN is at 46.3% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season JAX was at 39.2% over 17 games and CIN at 43.4% over 17 games.

NYG: 104.3 rushing yards allowed per game to ARI's 127.7

ARI is at 127.7 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; NYG is at 104.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

CIN: 3.33 sacks recorded per game to JAX's 2.67

Cincinnati is getting 3.33 sacks a game over 3 games, with Jacksonville close behind at 2.67. Both pass rushes are getting home, and the difference is small enough that one big game over 3 games could explain it. The sheet has no detail on the offensive lines they faced. Pressure looks likely on both sides, which can mean stalled drives and a slower game.

Pedro Ramirez: .546 OPS in Last 15 Days

Ramirez sits at a .546 OPS over the last 15 days in 38 AB, down 0.177 from his .723 season mark. Thirty-eight at-bats is a thin window, so the dip carries little weight and he is more likely to drift back up. Against the Padres, trust the season number over two quiet weeks.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

BUF: 3 sacks recorded per game to NE's 2.33

Buffalo's defense is getting 3 sacks a game over 3 games, while New England is at 2.33. Both pass rushes are producing, and the gap is modest over a 3-game sample. Sacks also depend on the quarterback and line across the way, and the sheet doesn't say who they faced. Expect both quarterbacks to see pressure here, with Buffalo's rush holding a slight edge.

Yankees are 7-6 vs Red Sox this season

This season series is nearly even, 7-6 for New York, though the Yankees won the last meeting 16-1. One blowout says more about that night than about the rivalry. With the season split this close, tonight's starters decide more than the head-to-head record.

HOU: 5.53 yards per play allowed to DAL's 6.03

DAL is at 6.03 yards per play allowed over 3 games; HOU is at 5.53 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

IND: 2.33 sacks recorded per game to WSH's 1.67

IND is at 2.33 sacks recorded per game over 3 games; WSH is at 1.67 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

NO: 2.33 sacks recorded per game to ATL's 1.67

ATL is at 1.67 sacks recorded per game over 3 games; NO is at 2.33 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

DEN: 2.67 sacks recorded per game to SF's 2

DEN is at 2.67 sacks recorded per game over 3 games; SF is at 2 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

TB: 26.3 points allowed per game to GB's 30.3

GB is at 30.3 points allowed per game over 3 games; TB is at 26.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 21.2 over 17 games and TB at 24.2 over 17 games.

DAL: 207.3 passing yards allowed per game to HOU's 238.7

DAL is at 207.3 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; HOU is at 238.7 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

CAR: 27.7 points allowed per game to DET's 31.7

DET is at 31.7 points allowed per game over 3 games; CAR is at 27.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DET was at 24.3 over 17 games and CAR at 22.4 over 17 games.

HOU: 30:05 time of possession per game to DAL's 27:30

DAL is at 27:30 time of possession per game over 3 games; HOU is at 30:05 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DAL was at 30:48 over 17 games and HOU at 31:49 over 17 games.

Derek Hill (bats R) draws Chris Sale (LHP), batting 5th

Hill hits lefties better: a .781 OPS in 128 at-bats against them, .647 against righties. The righty side is only 71 at-bats, so the gap is less settled than it looks, though the lefty number has the bigger sample. Batting fifth behind Bohm against Sale puts him in run-producing spots. Weigh his props by the .781, and expect less playing time if a right-hander comes in.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

ARI: 66.7 offensive plays per game to NYG's 60.3

ARI is at 66.7 offensive plays per game over 3 games; NYG is at 60.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season ARI was at 63.2 over 17 games and NYG at 63.8 over 17 games.

CAR: 6.1 yards per play to DET's 5.6

Carolina is the bigger surprise here: 6.1 a play after 4.92 last season, a jump that 3 games can inflate. Detroit is down to 5.6 from 5.97 and has more history behind its level. Expect Carolina's number to cool and Detroit's to climb, so the yardage edge the Panthers show now is the part of this matchup to trust least.

PIT: 192.7 passing yards allowed per game to CLE's 224

Pittsburgh has allowed 192.7 passing yards a game over 3 games, while Cleveland has allowed 224. Passing yards depend a lot on game script: defenses holding leads see more throws. The sheet doesn't name the quarterbacks these teams faced, so 3 games may say as much about the schedule as the secondaries. Cleveland's pass defense has been the more generous one so far, a small point in Pittsburgh's favor.

Jalen Ramsey

Wrist · Limited practice

Tytus Howard

Knee · Limited practice

BAL: 105 rushing yards allowed per game to TEN's 126.3

Baltimore has allowed 105 rushing yards a game over 3 games, while Tennessee has allowed 126.3. Run defense totals shift with game script, and the sheet doesn't say whether these teams were leading or trailing or who they faced. Three games is a short look. Tennessee's defense has been the easier one to run on, which suits a Baltimore offense that wants to control the clock.

Tyson Campbell

Knee · Limited practice

Grant Delpit

Shoulder · Limited practice

Brandin Echols

Concussion · Limited practice

ATL: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 61.5%

ATL is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 3 games; NO is at 61.5% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

LAR: 31:05 time of possession per game to PHI's 28:44

LAR is at 31:05 time of possession per game over 3 games; PHI is at 28:44 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAR was at 30:46 over 17 games and PHI at 30:11 over 17 games.

Edgerrin Cooper

Head · Limited practice

Donovan Jennings

Limited practice

Anthony Belton

Limited practice

PIT: 20 points allowed per game to CLE's 23.7

PIT is at 20 points allowed per game over 3 games; CLE is at 23.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season PIT was at 22.8 over 17 games and CLE at 22.3 over 17 games.

JAX: 40.3 penalty yards per game to CIN's 55

JAX is at 40.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; CIN is at 55 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season JAX was at 63.5 over 17 games and CIN at 37.2 over 17 games.

NYJ: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to CHI's 57.1%

NYJ is at 75% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; CHI is at 57.1% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season NYJ was at 43.9% over 17 games and CHI at 51.7% over 17 games.

Brandon Cisse

Limited practice

Anthony Campbell

Ankle · Limited practice

SF: 207.3 passing yards allowed per game to DEN's 237

DEN is at 237 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; SF is at 207.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Leo Chenal (LB) is on injured reserve for WSH

The Commanders placed Chenal (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 29.

Dell Pettus (S) is on injured reserve for NE

The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Javon Hargrave

Limited practice

Quintayvious Hutchins (LB) is on injured reserve for NE

Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 26.

David Onyemata (DT) is on injured reserve for NYJ

Onyemata (groin) underwent core-muscle surgery Wednesday, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.

Brian Burns (LB) is on injured reserve for NYG

The Giants put Brian Burns on injured reserve Tuesday with a knee injury, so he is out for Arizona and several weeks beyond. Losing him takes a pass rusher off the edge for a multi-week stretch. Bettors should expect less pressure on Arizona's quarterback than a full-strength Giants front would bring.

P.J. Locke (S) is on injured reserve for DAL

The Cowboys placed Locke (foot) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

Jake Hummel (LB) is on injured reserve for HOU

The Texans placed Hummel (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. Reported Sep 26.

C.J. West (DT) is on injured reserve for SF

The 49ers placed West (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.

Thomas Harper (S) is on injured reserve for DET

The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 26.

Claudin Cherelus (LB) is on injured reserve for CAR

The Panthers placed Cherelus (shoulder) on injured reserve Saturday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 26.

Teven Jenkins

Back · Limited practice

NE: 34.3% third downs allowed to BUF's 40.5%

NE is at 34.3% third downs allowed over 3 games; BUF is at 40.5% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito (SD, SP) — 60-Day IL, elbow. Return 2026-10-01 (2 days). Season: 5.16 ERA. Pass. Elbow issues for pitchers don't vanish in 60 days, and that ERA doesn't move the needle even if he clears. Season's done in early October anyway — the stash window closed weeks ago.

LAC: 4.2 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 3.63

LAC is at 4.2 yards per rush attempt over 3 games; SEA is at 3.63 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAC was at 4.58 over 17 games and SEA at 4.17 over 17 games.

PIT: 33.3% third downs allowed to CLE's 39%

Pittsburgh has held opponents to 33.3% on third down over 3 games, better than Cleveland's 39%. Both are respectable, and Pittsburgh is getting off the field about two times in three. Third-down rates swing quickly across 3 games, and the sheet doesn't name the offenses faced. It's an early edge for Pittsburgh's defense in sustaining drives, worth weighing lightly.

TEN: 189 passing yards allowed per game to BAL's 216.3

Tennessee has allowed 189 passing yards a game over 3 games, while Baltimore has allowed 216.3. Low passing totals can come from a good secondary or from opponents who ran the ball with a lead, and the sheet doesn't say which. Over 3 games, schedule can drive much of this. Baltimore's pass defense has given up more so far, a modest note for Tennessee's passing game.

GB: 5.17 yards per play to TB's 4.73

Both offenses are running below last season, Green Bay at 5.17 from 5.61 and Tampa Bay at 4.73 from 5.12. Each still hit deep shots last game, with Jordan Love finding Matthew Golden for 45 and Baker Mayfield throwing a 40-yard score to Ted Hurst III. After 3 games both look due to tick up, so a low-scoring script built on these early numbers may undersell two passing games that can still strike downfield.

DET: 24.7 first downs per game to CAR's 22

DET is at 24.7 first downs per game over 3 games; CAR is at 22 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season DET was at 20.4 over 17 games and CAR at 18 over 17 games.

LAR: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to PHI's 33.3%

LAR is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 3 games; PHI is at 33.3% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season LAR was at 66.7% over 17 games and PHI at 52.4% over 17 games.

JAX: 7.1 yards per pass attempt to CIN's 6.33

JAX is at 7.1 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; CIN is at 6.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season JAX was at 6.42 over 17 games and CIN at 5.81 over 17 games.

IND: 1.67 fourth-down attempts per game to WSH's 1

IND is at 1.67 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; WSH is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season IND was at 1.59 over 17 games and WSH at 1.53 over 17 games.

IND: 33.3 penalty yards per game to WSH's 46.7

IND is at 33.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; WSH is at 46.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season IND was at 51.2 over 17 games and WSH at 53.7 over 17 games.

PIT: 33.3% red-zone scoring allowed to CLE's 44.4%

PIT is at 33.3% red-zone scoring allowed over 3 games; CLE is at 44.4% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

JAX: 10.3 sack yards lost per game to CIN's 15.7

JAX is at 10.3 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; CIN is at 15.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season JAX was at 20.6 over 17 games and CIN at 14.1 over 17 games.

GB: 14.7 sack yards lost per game to TB's 20

GB is at 14.7 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; TB is at 20 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season GB was at 16.3 over 17 games and TB at 15.9 over 17 games.

Payton Tolle: 1.53 ERA over his last 3 starts

Tolle has allowed 3 earned runs in 17.2 innings over his last 3 starts with 24 strikeouts, well under his 3.03 season ERA. The strikeouts are the part to trust: more than a batter an inning keeps rallies short. A 1.53 ERA over 3 starts will drift up, so in New York, expect runs allowed nearer the 3.03 while respecting the swing-and-miss.

P 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Gennings Dunker (G) is on injured reserve for PIT

The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports. Reported Sep 26.

Greg Van Roten (G) is on injured reserve for NE

The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 30.

Jackson Slater (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

Tennessee placed Slater on injured reserve Tuesday with a foot injury, which rules him out against Baltimore and for at least several weeks. He is the second Titans guard sent to injured reserve that day along with Fernando Carmona. With two guards out, backups will be playing inside, which matters most for the run game and for protecting the quarterback against Baltimore's front.

Fernando Carmona (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

The Titans put Carmona on injured reserve Tuesday with an ankle injury, so he is out against Baltimore and for at least several weeks after. Losing a guard thins Tennessee's offensive line, and a backup will take his snaps. Paired with Jackson Slater also going to injured reserve on the same day, the interior of that line is thin going into Baltimore.

KC: 32:07 time of possession per game to LV's 30:03

KC is at 32:07 time of possession per game over 3 games; LV is at 30:03 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 28. Last season KC was at 30:09 over 17 games and LV at 28:03 over 17 games.

MIN: 85.7 rushing yards allowed per game to MIA's 104.3

MIA is at 104.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; MIN is at 85.7 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 28.

Anthony Bradford (G) is on injured reserve for SEA

The Seahawks placed Bradford (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 24.

Jake Tonges (TE) is on injured reserve for SF

Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports. Reported Sep 16.

Tyler Smith (G) is on injured reserve for DAL

Smith (thumb) could return for the Cowboys' Week 5 matchup against the Buccaneers, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 30.

T.J. Tampa (CB) is on injured reserve for BAL

The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.

Paulson Adebo (CB) is on injured reserve for NYG

The Giants placed Adebo (knee) on injured reserve Friday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 19.

B.J. Green II (DE) is on injured reserve for JAX

Jacksonville placed defensive end B.J. Green II on injured reserve with an elbow injury on Sep 17, so he is out for the trip to Cincinnati. Injured reserve means several weeks at minimum. The sheet names no replacement, so the Jaguars' edge rotation runs without him in this one.

KC (3-0) at LV (3-0), a division game

Two 3-0 division rivals with nearly identical margins: Kansas City at +38 and Las Vegas at +34. Both are 1-0 in the relevant split, one game apiece. With three games of evidence and matching profiles, neither record gives much separation. Home field is the clearest tiebreaker on the sheet, so the price on the Raiders at home is the number to judge.

LAR (1-2) at PHI (2-1)

The Rams are 1-2 at -2, so their losses have been close and the record undersells them. Philadelphia is 2-1 at -14, a winning record on a negative margin, which flatters the Eagles. Each team has one game in its home or road split, too few to mean much. By margin, the visiting team has played better, and that gap tends to show up once records settle.

Micheal Clemons (DE) is on injured reserve for IND

Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.

PHI is on a short week

The Rams have 2 days since their last game and Philadelphia has 1, so both sides are compressed. The Eagles are home but on the shortest turnaround in this matchup. With a 1-day difference, rest gives a slight nod to the visitors and little more.

CHI is on a short week

Both teams are on quick turnarounds: the Jets come in with 2 days and Chicago with just 1. That is a small gap, and the Bears at home are the side with the least recovery time. Neither team gets a real prep advantage, so the calendar is a minor factor in this one.

A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB) is on injured reserve for ATL

The Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.

Avonte Maddox (CB) is on injured reserve for DET

The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.

Jordan Mason (RB) is on injured reserve for MIN

MIN lists Jordan Mason as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Sep 16.

Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB) is on injured reserve for MIA

The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.

Kyle Louis (LB) is on injured reserve for MIA

The Dolphins placed Louis (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 17.

Henry To'oTo'o (LB) is on injured reserve for HOU

To'oTo'o (shoulder) is expected to miss more than four games, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 16.

Kitan Crawford (S) is on injured reserve for ARI

The Cardinals placed Crawford (ankle) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 17.

Jordan Magee (LB) is on injured reserve for WSH

The Commanders placed Magee (hamstring) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 17.

Da'Shawn Hand (DT) is on injured reserve for ATL

The Falcons placed Hand (quadriceps) on injured reserve Wednesday, William McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 17.

Cooper McDonald (LB) is on injured reserve for KC

The Chiefs placed McDonald (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 17.

ARI (1-2) at NYG (2-1)

The Giants are 2-1 at -9 and 2-0 at home, a winning record that their margin does not support. Arizona is 1-2 at -18 with two straight losses and a 1-1 road split. Both margins are negative, so neither team has outscored opponents. New York's home record is the strongest thing on its sheet, but a negative margin on a winning team is a common candidate to cool off.

DET (2-1) at CAR (1-2)

Detroit is 2-1 at -2 and Carolina is 1-2 at +6, so the records point one way and the margins point the other. The Lions have been winning close games, and the Panthers have been outscoring opponents without the wins to show for it. Each is 0-1 in its home or road split, one game each. Carolina is the kind of team whose record tends to rise to meet its margin.

Gavin Stone

Gavin Stone (LAD, SP) — 60-Day IL, shoulder. Return 2026-10-03 (4 days). No season line. Pass. Shoulder injury, no track record to evaluate, and you're grabbing him with 4 days left in the season. Too late, too uncertain.

Mike Onwenu (G) is on injured reserve for NE

The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.

Zach Wood (LS) is on injured reserve for NO

The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 19.

IND is on a short week

Indianapolis and Washington both have 2 days since their last game. The schedule treats them the same, so rest should not tilt how you view this matchup.

NE is on a short week

New England and Buffalo both come in on 2 days of rest. With identical spacing, the calendar hands neither team an advantage in recovery or preparation.

JAX is on a short week

Jacksonville and Cincinnati each have 2 days since their last game. Same turnaround for both, so rest is a wash in this one.

ARI is on a short week

Arizona and the Giants both have 2 days since their last game. Neither side gets extra time to recover or prepare, so the calendar is neutral here.

TEN is on a short week

Tennessee and Baltimore both come in with 2 days of rest. The spacing is even, so rest gives no edge to either side.

DAL is on a short week

Dallas and Houston each have 2 days since their last game. The schedule is level for both, so rest is not a factor that separates them.

MIA is on a short week

Miami and Minnesota both have 2 days since their last game. Identical turnarounds mean neither team gains a prep or recovery edge from the calendar.

KC is on a short week

Kansas City and Las Vegas both come in on 2 days of rest. The spacing is equal, so rest does not tilt this matchup.

DEN is on a short week

Denver and San Francisco each have 2 days since their last game. Both sides are on the same clock, so the calendar is neutral here.

LAC is on a short week

The Chargers and Seattle both have 2 days since their last game. With even spacing, neither side gets a rest advantage.

DET is on a short week

Detroit and Carolina both come in with 2 days of rest. The turnaround is the same for each, so rest is a wash in this game.

ATL lead the series with NO since 2025

Atlanta won both meetings last season, and they looked very different. The Falcons won 24-10 in New Orleans in November, a comfortable road win, then escaped 19-17 at home on Jan 4. That second game shows the Saints can keep it tight. This one is in New Orleans, where Atlanta won easily last time, but two games is a small sample to call it a mismatch.

PIT and CLE are even since 2025

Both meetings last season were low-scoring, and the home team won each one. Pittsburgh handled Cleveland 23-9 in October, then Cleveland returned the favor 13-6 on Dec 28 with Pittsburgh held to two scores' worth of points. This one is in Cleveland, where the Steelers managed just 6. Two games is a thin sample, but both pointed to a grinding, defense-first matchup, which is useful context when you look at the total.

NE and BUF are even since 2025

These two played a pair of close, back-and-forth games last season, and the road team won both. New England won 23-20 in Buffalo in October, then Buffalo won a 35-31 shootout in Foxborough in December. The scoring jumped a lot between the two meetings, so there is no settled pattern on points. What held both times was a one-score finish, which makes a big spread in this series harder to trust.

KC and LV are even since 2025

The series is 1-1 across the last two seasons. Jan 4, 2026: KC 12 at LV 14. Oct 19, 2025: LV 0 at KC 31.

PIT is on a short week

Pittsburgh and Cleveland both come in with 2 days since their last game. Equal spacing means neither side gets a rest or prep edge from the calendar, so look elsewhere for a reason to favor one.

Bo Melton

Full practice

Benjamin St-Juste

Full practice

Joey Porter Jr.

Full practice

SD have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

SD scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Michael King: 1.69 ERA, .148 opponent AVG across 32.0 IP, 2 HR; Matthew Boyd: 4.50 ERA, .222 opponent AVG across 22.0 IP, 3 HR.

P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st

Marcelino McCrary-Ball (LB) is on injured reserve for NYJ

NYJ lists Marcelino McCrary-Ball as on injured reserve on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

IND (1-2) at WSH (1-2)

Mirror images: both teams are 1-2, both won their last game, and the margins are close at -19 for Indianapolis and -17 for Washington. The Commanders won their only home game and the Colts lost their only road game, one game each. Nothing on the sheet separates these teams much. Home field is the most concrete edge, and a bettor should expect the price to reflect a close game.

PHI lead the series with LAR since 2025

PHI has taken 1 of the last 1. Sep 21, 2025: LAR 26 at PHI 33.

CIN lead the series with JAX since 2025

CIN has taken 1 of the last 1. Sep 14, 2025: JAX 27 at CIN 31.

Leo Chenal

Neck

Sam Cosmi

Concussion

Alec Pierce

Heel

Nick Cross

Illness

Chig Okonkwo

Hamstring

Ar'maj Reed-Adams

Elbow

T.J. Sanders

Appendix

Dre'Mont Jones

Shoulder

Craig Woodson

Shoulder

Brenden Schooler

Back

Quintayvious Hutchins

Knee

Jordan Hancock

Hamstring

Eli Raridon

Thigh

Shemar Turner

Knee - ACL

Noah Sewell

Achilles

Caleb Williams

Hamstring

Adonai Mitchell

Finger

Kene Nwangwu

Back

Mason Taylor

Thumb

Kiko Mauigoa

Quadriceps

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Groin

Albert Regis

Elbow

B.J. Hill

Achilles

Andrei Iosivas

Thumb

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson

Back

Demarcus Robinson

Ankle

Tyler Nubin

Calf

Jaxson Dart

Knee - Meniscus

Brian Burns

Knee - ACL

Deonte Banks

Calf

Puka Nacua

Hip

Kamren Kinchens

Hamstring

Terrance Ferguson

Ankle

Fred Johnson

Knee

Colby Parkinson

Shoulder - AC Joint

Hollywood Brown

Ankle

Dallas Goedert

Knee - MCL

Rueben Bain Jr.

Groin

Josiah Trotter

Shoulder

Baker Mayfield

Thumb

Jalen McMillan

Knee - PCL

Fernando Carmona

Ankle

Ronnie Stanley

Toe

Nico Collins

Hamstring

Ed Ingram

Groin

Cobie Durant

Hamstring

Jadeveon Clowney

Knee

DeMarvion Overshown

Hamstring

Malik Hooker

Forearm

Jake Hummel

Groin

P.J. Locke

Foot

M.J. Stewart

Knee

Brett Thorson

Hamstring

Martin Emerson Jr.

Shoulder

Christen Miller

Toe

Barion Brown

Hamstring

Samson Ebukam

Hamstring

Travis Etienne Jr.

Hamstring

Jalen Coker

Quadriceps

Thomas Harper

Ankle

Nick Scott

Ribs

Xavier Legette

Knee

Devin Lloyd

Calf

Ben Bartch

Foot

Claudin Cherelus

Shoulder

Brenen Thompson

Quadriceps

Julian Love

Calf

Ty Okada

Hamstring

Charlie Kolar

Forearm

Dalvin Tomlinson

Hamstring

Kayode Awosika

Lower Leg

Trey Pipkins III

Knee

Elijah Molden

Hamstring

Brandon Pili

Concussion

Dre Greenlaw

Quadriceps

James Thompson Jr.

Ankle

Nick Bosa

Calf

Romello Height

Hand

Jonah Coleman

Ankle

Mike Evans

Ribs

Trent Williams

Neck

Caleb Douglas

Ankle

Nick Samac

Knee

Robert Beal Jr.

Hamstring

Jaylen Wright

Foot

Aidan O'Connell

Personal

Treydan Stukes

Concussion

Chamarri Conner

Knee

Josh Simmons

Back

Gennings Dunker

Knee

Marvin Mims Jr.

Foot

Ashton Dulin

Ankle

Frankie Luvu

Groin

Jayden Daniels

Elbow