Mets at Yankees
O/U 2.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees ML -184
- Published odds
- -184
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 0-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 10 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 10:14 AM | Close Sep 13 11:54 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | Holds |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-115) | 8 (-105) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -180 | Yankees -180 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 10:14 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-115) | Yankees -180 · Mets +150 |
| Sep 13 10:31 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 7.5 (-115) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 10:55 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-115) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+125) | 7.5 (-115) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 11:04 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-120) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 11:04 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-120) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 11:14 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-105) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 11:17 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-120) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 11:21 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-105) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| Sep 13 11:35 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-120) | Yankees -175 · Mets +145 |
| CLOSESep 13 11:54 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-105) | Yankees -180 · Mets +150 |
The read
Sunday afternoon in the Bronx, and the Subway Series comes down to its deciding game. I’m taking Yankees ML -184, with the starting matchup and the construction of the Yankees’ batting order carrying the decision. The Yankees’ starter enters with a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, compared with 3.81 and 1.29 for the Mets’ starter. The baserunner difference matters most to me here: against a Mets offense putting up big run totals lately, I put considerable weight on the stronger record of keeping runners off base. That gives me a defensible starting point for backing the favorite.
The Yankees’ lineup also leans heavily left-handed against a starter who has allowed a .686 OPS to left-handed hitters and .626 to right-handed hitters. That difference is modest, but today’s batting order matches the more productive side of his measured splits. The Yankees’ starter has allowed .577 OPS to lefties and .517 to righties, so the Mets’ own left-handed presence faces stronger demonstrated results against both sides. These splits support my preference without establishing how any individual plate appearance will go. The short right-field porch and outward breeze apply to both offenses; neither team owns those conditions.
The strongest argument against this pick is the Mets’ recent scoring. Saturday’s 12-2 win followed a stretch that also included a 15-14 victory, so their offensive threat extends beyond one rivalry result. Both clubs are 7-3 over their last 10, and I see no reason to award the Yankees a momentum advantage or assume an automatic rebound. The bullpen innings remain a separate test after the starters leave. At -184, that makes the Mets’ offensive form a serious objection. I still judge the Yankees’ combination of baserunner prevention and the opposing starter’s fit against their batting order sufficient to justify the price, with measured confidence.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Juan Soto (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
1.013Juan Soto has a 1.013 OPS in 222 AB against righties, versus .767 in 123 AB the other way. Batting second, the left-handed hitter faces RHP Cam Schlittler on his stronger split.
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
.920Luis Garcia Jr. has a .920 OPS in 400 AB against righties, versus .652 in 78 AB the other way. Batting fourth, the left-handed hitter faces RHP Christian Scott on his stronger split.
HEAT CHECK
A.J. Ewing: 1.010 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.010A.J. Ewing has a 1.010 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 AB, compared with a .699 season baseline. The supplied difference is 0.311.
HR THREAT
Francisco Lindor
+450Gary's Take Lindor is the long-shot swing I want. He has homered in six of his last 15 games, owns four homers over the past week, and just left the park twice in Saturday's rout.
BALLPARK
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.21 ERA
3.21Cam Schlittler has a 3.21 ERA and .235 average allowed over 75.2 innings and 14 games at Yankee Stadium, versus a 1.14 ERA across 103.0 innings elsewhere. Both samples are substantial, but the split cannot assign the difference to the park entering NYM at NYY.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, caesars, draftkings, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJARED YOUNGH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Young has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15, and the fifth spot gives him a useful path to production behind Lindor, Soto and Benge. He has three hits and a home run already in this series, and his .285 average against right-handed pitching is a better fit than his overall line suggests. Schlittler is excellent, but Young only needs one hit, run or RBI to get there.
- THE LONG SHOTFRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5
Lindor is the long-shot swing I want. He has homered in six of his last 15 games, owns four homers over the past week, and just left the park twice in Saturday's rout. Schlittler's fastball is a problem for everyone, but Lindor's left-handed power plays toward Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch. At +450, the price is large enough to take the shot.
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