Yankees at Diamondbacks
O/U 7.5 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5 · Chase Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees ML -164
- Published odds
- -164
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 3-5
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 16 moves| Market | Opened Sep 19 5:00 AM | Close Sep 19 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (+100) | 7.5 (+105) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Yankees -145 | Yankees -165 | −20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 19 5:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -145 · Diamondbacks +120 |
| Sep 19 10:11 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+115) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -150 · Diamondbacks +125 |
| Sep 19 11:00 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -150 · Diamondbacks +125 |
| Sep 19 11:26 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 11:39 AM | Yankees -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+105) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 12:11 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+105) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 12:56 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 2:45 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+105) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 2:51 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 3:17 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -170 · Diamondbacks +140 |
| Sep 19 4:45 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -170 · Diamondbacks +140 |
| Sep 19 5:17 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -170 · Diamondbacks +140 |
| Sep 19 5:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 5:54 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 6:15 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+105) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| Sep 19 6:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+100) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
| CLOSESep 19 7:30 PM | Yankees -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+105) | Yankees -165 · Diamondbacks +135 |
The read
The Yankees and Diamondbacks meet at Chase Field tonight, with Cam Schlittler facing Brandon Pfaadt in the middle game of the series. I’m backing New York because the starting-pitching advantage connects directly with tonight’s lineup matchup. Schlittler’s last five starts produced a 0.83 ERA with 39 strikeouts; Pfaadt’s produced a 5.74 ERA with six home runs allowed. Those stretches won’t necessarily repeat, but Schlittler’s strikeout production gives his recent run prevention substance. Pfaadt’s problems have involved hits and homers despite relatively few walks, making New York’s particular hitters more relevant than its recent winning record.
The matchup carrying my decision is Rice, Bellinger and Luis García Jr. opening the order against Pfaadt. He has allowed a .762 OPS to left-handed hitters compared with .594 to right-handers. Rice’s .946 OPS against righties and García Jr.’s .894 support that concern from the offensive side, too. Arizona also presents left-handed hitters and switch-hitters, but Schlittler has allowed a .570 OPS to lefties. Moreno’s .905 OPS against right-handed pitching is a serious counterweight, so this isn’t a claim that Arizona cannot score. My judgment is that New York has the stronger combination of starting pitching and documented offensive matchups, enough to justify laying -164.
The strongest argument against my side is Arizona’s bullpen keeping this close after Pfaadt exits. Brandyn Garcia has allowed no earned runs in his last 10 innings, while Loáisiga has allowed one in 10.2 innings. I give that real weight. New York counters with Headrick, Bednar and Blackburn, although tonight’s availability remains unknown for both relief groups; days without appearances do not establish clearance. That uncertainty keeps my confidence measured. I’m taking New York to win outright because the starter-and-lineup combination outweighs Arizona’s credible late-inning case, without requiring another offensive outburst or a particular winning margin.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
.760Lars Nootbaar leads off against RHP Cam Schlittler with a .760 OPS in 220 AB versus right-handers. His OPS is .450 in 40 AB versus left-handers.
HEAT CHECK
Nolan Arenado: 1.205 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.205Nolan Arenado has a 1.205 OPS over the last 15 days in 41 at-bats, 0.435 above his .770 season mark. That comes alongside 26 home runs on the year, with a 0.5 total-bases line in Arizona.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKAUSTIN WELLSH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
I’m taking Austin Wells under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at -157. Wells bats sixth and averages only 3.2 plate appearances per game, so his opportunities are more limited than those of New York’s top-of-the-order hitters. He has stayed under this line in 11 of his last 15 games, while averaging 1.1 combined hits, runs and RBIs per game across 116 appearances. Arizona also has its primary late-inning relievers rested if Brandon Pfaadt works his usual six-plus innings.
The strongest concern is Pfaadt’s weaker work against left-handed hitters, who have produced a .762 OPS against him, compared with .594 for righties. Wells has also homered twice in his last seven games, and one solo homer immediately produces three toward this market. Pfaadt’s 5.21 ERA over his last three starts adds risk, but Wells’ lineup position and consistent lack of volume still make the under my preferred side.
- THE LONG SHOTCODY BELLINGERHR OVER 0.5
I’m taking Cody Bellinger over 0.5 home runs at +650. Bellinger has four homers in his last 15 games, owns a .997 OPS in September and bats second, giving him one of New York’s best chances to receive an extra plate appearance. The matchup supports the long price: Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a .762 OPS and 12 home runs in 257 at-bats to left-handed hitters. He has also surrendered six homers across his last five starts. Bellinger’s two home runs in seven career at-bats against Pfaadt are encouraging, though that matchup history is much too small to carry the pick by itself.
The clearest argument against the bet is Bellinger’s full-season home-run frequency: 16 in 127 games is close to the break-even rate attached to +650. Pfaadt has also allowed only a 7.6% barrel rate overall, so this is not a claim that he consistently permits premium contact. I’m paying for the current power stretch, the left-handed matchup and the price, while treating it as the volatile long-shot card it is.
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