Mariners at Yankees
O/U 6.5 · RL Yankees -1.5
Yankees -1.5+134
CONF 59%
LLostFinal 1-0
The read
Gary's Take A warm afternoon in the Bronx, the wind drifting toward the short porch, and the Yankees are hunting a sweep before leaving town. Seattle arrives with six straight losses and its season beginning to feel heavier by the inning.
Gilbert can keep this close early, but Fried is the starter I trust more in this matchup. His command and contact suppression attack a Mariners offense scoring just 2.5 runs per game over its last 10, while New York owns the deeper lineup and a substantial late-inning advantage.
I’m passing on the expensive Yankees moneyline and taking the plus price. If Gilbert blinks once, Seattle’s battered bullpen—19 earned runs over its last seven games—creates the separation. Yankees 4, Mariners 2.
Props on this game
2Max FriedUNDER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs+100
WActual 1
I’ll take even money on Fried holding Seattle below two earned runs. The Mariners own a .640 OPS against lefties and are scoring only 2.5 runs per game over their last 10. Fried has allowed one earned run across his two August starts, and his 1.4% barrel rate gives this homer-dependent lineup very little room for error.
Weston WilsonUNDER 0.5 Total Bases Total Bases-110
LActual 4
Wilson is 3-for-21 over his last 15 days and owns a .178 average in day games. Now he draws Fried, who has held right-handed hitters to a .204 average with a .542 OPS. Batting seventh against Fried and the stronger bullpen, Wilson needs to beat a difficult matchup at least once. At nearly even money, I’ll bet he doesn’t.
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