Sports picks for Thursday, August 13, 2026

Phillies 1-7 in Aaron Nola's last 8 starts

A 1-7 mark on Nola's turn looks damning, but that's the lineup and bullpen going quiet behind him, not him losing games himself — he's actually been sharp lately. I'd rather buy the pitcher here than fade the record.

Guardians are 7-1 vs Tigers this season

Cleveland's had Detroit's number all year and proved it travels with a 6-4 road win last time out. Only thing giving me pause is a Cleveland pen that's been worked hard the last three days — I want length from the starter tonight before I trust this holds late.

Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Keider Montero (RHP), batting 4th

Cleanup against a straightforward righty is exactly where Lowe does his damage — the left-handed pop plays way up on this side and nearly disappears against lefties. Montero hands him that look for a full game, and batting fourth means he's driving in whatever Cleveland puts on ahead of him. This is the matchup I'm circling tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Red Sox 7-1 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts

Boston just wins on Tolle's day, seven times out of eight, and I don't need to overthink why. The one thing giving me pause is they're dragging a five-game losing streak into Toronto, so I'd like to see them shake that off before I lean on the trend blind.

Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 4th against Braxton Ashcraft (RHP)

A right-hander turns Conine into one of the most dangerous bats in Miami's lineup, and cleanup is where that shows up loudest, hitting behind an order that's already turned over once. A split this wide paired with this kind of protection is exactly what I build extra-base props around — first name I circled on the slate.

P 1-for-2, 1 TB

Washington Nationals pen: 17 relief IP over their last 3 games

Washington's bullpen has been in the blender three days straight — Cosgrove's down, Williams is cooked, and they're already reaching for their fourth and fifth options to bridge a game. If the Cubs can keep this close into the late innings, Washington's in real trouble.

Davis Martin: 10.50 ERA over his last 3 starts

Martin's fallen off a cliff — 14 earned runs in his last 12 innings and he can't get through a lineup clean anymore. Cincinnati doesn't need to be patient here, they just need to keep the line moving early.

P 2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K

Otto Lopez: .474 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Braxton Ashcraft

Ashcraft is exactly the look that already gives Lopez trouble even in a normal stretch, so tonight doesn't offer an easy way out. Stack a real platoon weakness on top of a real slump and I'm expecting more of the same, not a reversal.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Tommy Edman: .355 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shane Drohan

Edman's .698 career mark against lefties is nearly double the .355 he's carrying into tonight, even accounting for a smaller sample on that number. Drohan doesn't hand him a platoon edge, but I'd call this a mild buy-low, not a fade.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Blue Jays 2-6 in Max Scherzer's last 8 starts

Toronto's offense has gone missing on Scherzer's turns, 2-6 tells the story, but I don't think that's on him — he's been the best version of himself his last few times out. That's a team problem more than a pitching problem.

Dodgers 6-2 in Roki Sasaki's last 8 starts

Sasaki's dealing right now and the Dodgers have handled business behind him all year, 6-2 on his turn. Nothing about Milwaukee's side of this changes that picture for me tonight.

Blue Jays are 9-5 vs Red Sox this season

Nine wins in fourteen tries is a real sample, and Toronto backed it up with a 6-4 win last time these two played. Boston hasn't shown me anything this season to suggest they've solved this matchup, home or away.

Pirates 6-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 8 starts

Ashcraft's turns have been good to Pittsburgh, 6-2 says as much, but that trend is walking into a buzzsaw tonight — Miami's white hot, owns the season series, and Pittsburgh's bullpen has nothing left in the tank if this stays close.

Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Tyler Phillips (RHP), batting 2nd

Second in the order is about volume as much as anything — Lowe sees more pitches tonight than almost anyone in Pittsburgh's lineup, and he's doing it against the hand he actually hits. This plays better for total bases and times-on-base than one big swing.

P 1-for-6, 1 TB

Esmerlyn Valdez: .475 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Phillips

An .800 mark against right-handers is still a strong number even below his gaudy season line, and that season number was never holding up all year anyway. Thirty-seven plate appearances isn't enough to override it — this reads like a hot bat cooling toward still-productive, not a hitter in trouble.

P 2-for-5, 2 TB

Alex Bregman: 1.090 OPS in Last 15 Days

1.090 over 57 plate appearances is too much runway to call lucky, and 16 homers on the season says the power was always real. Stay on Bregman against Washington tonight.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot

A 1.000 OPS against right-handers on real playing time both ways is about as wide as these splits get. Third against Bradley's right arm puts Harper at the first big RBI chance of the game, against exactly the look he dominates. That's value from the first inning on.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Max Scherzer: 2.57 ERA over his last 3 starts

Forget the ugly season line — over his last three starts Scherzer's missed bats, kept his WHIP under 1.25, and looked like anyone's top-of-rotation arm. If the price still reflects the bad version of him, that's the gap I want.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

BOS have lost 5 straight

BOS have lost 5 straight and been outscored by 10 over the run. Last 10: 5-5.

P team won 7-0

Logan Henderson

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/10 at Padres (played), Sun 8/16 at Dodgers. 2.68 xERA this season.

Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot

Gilbert starting is the best-case scenario for Garcia hitting cleanup — his carry number is against right-handers, no need to wait on a bullpen change. Batting fourth sets him up to do damage with runners on, so I'm building around him in run-production markets tonight rather than a generic hits prop.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot

Abbott starting puts Grichuk right in the matchup that's supposed to work for a right-handed bat, and hitting second gets him extra trips in a lineup built to keep the line moving. Wide split plus early volume is why he's one of my favorite secondary pieces tonight.

P 2-for-3, 4 TB

Royce Lewis: 1.038 OPS in Last 15 Days

58 plate appearances at a 1.038 clip is too big to call noise, and he already had 13 homers banked before this stretch started. 1.5 total bases is light for where his bat is right now — one extra-base hit clears it. Take the over on Lewis tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Aaron Nola (RHP)

Leadoff means Larnach sees Nola first and probably a couple more times before the night's over, all against the side he's handled well on a real sample. His lefty at-bats are too thin to move the needle against that track record. Good setup to set the tone early.

P 2-for-5, 2 TB

Yankees are 4-1 vs Mariners this season

New York's put up double-digit runs on Seattle already this year and they get to do it at home again. Seattle hasn't cracked this matchup once, and I don't expect tonight to be the exception.

Tarik Skubal

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/10 vs Royals (played), Sun 8/16 vs Brewers. 3.01 xERA this season.

Angels are 7-4 vs Rangers this season

Eleven games in, the Angels clearly have this matchup figured out, and they just took the last one 5-2 at home. Texas has to solve that on the road, which hasn't gone their way all year.

Marlins are 4-1 vs Pirates this season

Miami's beaten this team four times in five tries and hung an 8-2 loss on them last time out. I don't see anything about tonight's setup that changes that dynamic.

Reds are 4-1 vs White Sox this season

A 9-8 final last time out says this series has been about offense beating the other side's arms, not shutdown pitching, and Cincinnati's won that fight 4-1. Five games is close to the full book on this matchup. If tonight turns into another track meet, I like the Reds' side of that history.

Steven Kwan: 1.052 OPS in Last 15 Days

That's the biggest gap between recent form and season line on the board tonight, and it's built off stacking good at-bats over real innings, not one lucky weekend. The total bases number only sits at 1.5 — a hitter running this hot should clear that more nights than not. Trust the form.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Chase Meidroth (bats R) hits 1st against Andrew Abbott (LHP)

Leadoff against a lefty he already beats up means Meidroth gets three or four looks at this exact matchup tonight. That volume on top of the platoon edge is the profile I want at the top of a lineup — on-base and multi-hit over one big swing.

P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB

Paul Skenes

Split week for Skenes — the road look at the Marlins already came and went Tuesday, so what's left is Sunday's home date against the Red Sox. 3.13 xERA sits in the middle of this group, solid enough to lean on, with the more useful half of the pair — the home start — still ahead. Sunday's the live piece and it's at home — lean on it. A middle-of-the-pack plan-around arm on the season number.

Blake Snell

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 vs Royals (played), Sun 8/16 vs Brewers (proj). 2.34 xERA this season.

Gabriel Hughes

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/10 at Diamondbacks (played), Sun 8/16 at Giants. 3.03 xERA this season.

Eugenio Suarez

Gary's Take Nobody in this lineup is running hotter than Suarez. Three homers in his last seven games, a stretch that's produced a 1.233 OPS, and five barreled balls on just thirteen balls in play — that's not empty contact, that's squaring the ball up at an elite rate.

P 1 HR — 1-for-3, 4 TB

Chase DeLauter

Gary's Take DeLauter's the hottest bat in this lineup and it isn't close. Five hits in ten at-bats this series, a .370 week, and the underlying contact backs it up — he's squaring balls up in the low 90s consistently, not just slapping singles the other way.

P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB

Ernie Clement: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Payton Tolle

Lefties have been the tougher assignment for Clement all year, even if the gap is modest. He's running well below even that weaker-side number lately, which says this is more of a general cold spell than a Tolle-specific problem.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Blade Tidwell

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/10 vs Astros (played), Sun 8/16 vs Rockies. 3.15 xERA this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Doval, Yates, and Sisk have all been in there multiple times over the last three days, so Pittsburgh's real bullpen options aren't walking through that door tonight. If this one's tight late, they're handing the ball to names they'd rather not lean on.

CJ Abrams (bats L) hits 1st against Kevin Gausman (RHP)

Over 299 AB vs. Right, CJ Abrams owns a .970 OPS versus .759 in 148 AB the other way. He sees RHP Kevin Gausman tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson

Shared ninth in CHW: Grant Taylor 6 saves, Bryan Hudson 4. The role is live.

Jackson Chourio

Gary's Take Chourio's the best bat-to-power combo on this board right now. Three homers in his last six games, four in his last fifteen, and the exit-velo data backs it up — 91.8 mph average with four barrels on just seventeen balls in play over the sample.

P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Elly De La Cruz

Gary's Take De La Cruz has been the igniter for this Cincinnati lineup all series, delivering the sacrifice fly that scored the winning run in the extra-inning win two nights ago. The power has held up even while the average has dipped — two homers in his last seven games, including a leadoff blast into the seats in left to open a game outright back on August 6.

P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Miguel Vargas

Gary's Take Vargas has cleared this homer line in four of his last fifteen games, the best rate anyone on this board is carrying right now, and his most recent one came just two nights ago off Lodolo. He gets a lefty tonight in Abbott, and Abbott's own numbers back the matchup — he's allowing a home run every 27 at-bats to right-handed hitters like Vargas, compared to every 35 at-bats against lefties.

P 0 HR — 0-for-5, 0 TB

Mike Trout

Gary's Take The batting average says slump, the exit velocity disagrees. Trout's averaging 92.2 mph on contact over his last two weeks and he owns the best expected numbers in this Angels lineup by a wide margin — the underlying contact quality hasn't gone anywhere even with the average dragging low.

P 0 HR — 3-for-5, 3 TB

Ben Rice: .535 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Gilbert

This is the rare cold-streak matchup that actually sets up as a breakout spot. Rice has handled right-handed pitching well above his overall line over a real sample this season, so Gilbert tonight is his best matchup, not his worst — if anyone's live to snap out of it, it's him.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Griffin Conine

Gary's Take Conine is seeing the ball exceptionally well: five home runs over his last 15 days, a 96.7 mph recent average exit velocity and four barrels on just 15 balls in play. Ashcraft has surrendered 13 of his 19 home runs to left-handed hitters and has allowed nine homers across his last six starts.

Griffin Conine

Gary's Take Conine is seeing the ball exceptionally well: five home runs over his last 15 days, a 96.7 mph recent average exit velocity and four barrels on just 15 balls in play. Ashcraft has surrendered 13 of his 19 home runs to left-handed hitters and has allowed nine homers across his last six starts.

P 0 HR — 1-for-2, 1 TB

Josh Bell

Gary's Take Bell is doing everything right at the plate right now — a .393 average and better than a 1.000 OPS over his last week, with three homers and nine RBI in his last fifteen games. The exit-velocity gains are real too, 88.6 mph average with three barrels in his last 25 balls in play, so this isn't just a hot streak of bloop hits.

P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Kyle Schwarber

Gary's Take Schwarber is the best pure power threat on this field and he's been locked in — two homers and six RBI over his last week, a 1.18 OPS, and three barrels squeezed into just 17 balls in play. Taj Bradley is a legitimate arm with a mid-90s heater and a nasty splitter, but the one crack in his season has been left-handed power: lefties are hitting just .206 against him, yet they've still taken him deep twelve times in 287 at-bats, a far higher home-run rate than what he allows to righties.

P 2 HR — 2-for-5, 8 TB

Wilyer Abreu: 1.081 OPS in Last 15 Days

Abreu already had the best season line in this group, and now he's topping it at 1.081 over 47 plate appearances. 21 homers is the most power anyone on this board is carrying into tonight, so this isn't empty contact. Keep trusting the barrel.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB

Chicago White Sox pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games

Smith's unavailable after a heavy workload and Chicago's already dipping into names like Hicks and Taylor to cover innings. Cincinnati's in a good spot to make this ugly if the starter doesn't give length.

Brayan Rocchio: .368 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Keider Montero

The platoon edge here is thin, barely better than his season mark, so it's not doing much lifting. A .368 OPS over 46 plate appearances is too steep a drop to explain away as a matchup issue — this needs him finding his timing, not a favorable pitcher.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Dylan Cease

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 vs Red Sox (played), Sun 8/16 vs Yankees (proj). 2.74 xERA this season.

Casey Mize

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/10 vs Brewers (played), Sun 8/16 at Guardians. 3.39 xERA this season.

Reid Detmers

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/10 vs Rangers (played), Sat 8/15 vs Royals. 3.5 xERA this season.

Dylan Crews: .435 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman

This one's not the clean bounce-back case the others are — Crews' own number against right-handers is just .532 over 173 at-bats, barely above where the slump has him, and Gausman's on his tougher side too. Slump and matchup are pointing the same direction here. I'd stay away.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Sean Burke

Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/11 vs Reds (played), Sun 8/16 at Tigers. 3.54 xERA this season.

Cleveland Guardians pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Holderman, Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Sabrowski make up basically the whole high-leverage group, and they're either down or limited after three straight heavy days. If Detroit can drag this into the late innings, Cleveland's covering it with arms they don't usually trust in that spot.

Bryson Stott: 1.052 OPS in Last 15 Days

Stott's not a power bat, eight homers is the lightest total in this group, but this stretch is built on squaring the ball up, and that plays fine against a total bases number sitting at 1.5. 42 plate appearances at this level says the swing's sharper right now, not lucky. One clean double gets it done — take the over.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Shane Drohan: 6.88 ERA over his last 3 starts

Drohan's leaking runs at almost double his season rate right now — 13 earned in his last three starts and hitters are squaring him up. The Dodgers get him at about the worst possible time.

P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K

Trevor Larnach: .461 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Aaron Nola

Trevor Larnach's .461 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .788 season mark, down 0.327. Tonight he draws RHP Aaron Nola — his stronger side: a .818 OPS vs RHP across 279 AB.

P 2-for-5, 2 TB

Jacob Latz

Latz is the unquestioned closer in Texas — 23 saves to Junis's 5, no committee smoke at all — and he's been used just once in the last three games, so the arm's fully rested. Rangers are -148 road favorites at Anaheim, exactly the number you want sitting behind a ninth-inning guy. Locked-in must-start for saves this week — role, rest, and price all line up clean.

Nathan Lukes: .464 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Payton Tolle

A .375 OPS against lefties is a real hole for Lukes, not a minor dip, and Tolle puts him right back into it tonight. The slump and the platoon issue point the same direction, so there's no favorable angle pulling him out of this one.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 25 saves this season (next closest: Caleb Kilian with 8).

Aroldis Chapman

Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth for the Red Sox — 27 saves this season (next closest: Erik Miller with 4).

David Bednar

David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 27 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).

Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 6th against Keider Montero (RHP)

The same favorable Montero matchup Cleveland's cleanup bat gets shows up again down in the six-hole, it just plays out differently. This is more a rate-stats story than a box-score one for Bazzana — a supporting piece, not the headline of the night.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Ceddanne Rafaela: .978 OPS in Last 15 Days

62 plate appearances is the biggest sample in this group, and the jump off his season mark is the smallest — he hasn't spiked so much as leveled up and held it for two-plus weeks. A .791 season OPS and 16 homers say the pop underneath was already real. Steadiest bet on the board tonight.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Spencer Torkelson: .965 OPS in Last 15 Days

Twenty homers already banked means this is real power getting hotter, not batting-average noise. A 0.5 total bases number is a low bar for a bat with this much thump — one of the safer leans on the board tonight.

P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB

Braden Montgomery: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott

Abbott's one of the tougher looks Montgomery can draw, and his numbers against lefties already trail his season mark. He's been worse than even that weaker-side rate the last two weeks, so this reads as a broader cold spell, not just a platoon issue.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB

Eduardo Valencia: .820 OPS in Last 15 Days

An .820 OPS over any two weeks would be a career year for most hitters — calling this a slump just shows how absurd his season number actually is. Twenty-four plate appearances is too small a window to read much into. Even in the so-called rough patch, he's still doing real damage.

P 1-for-3, 4 TB

Max Scherzer: 7.25 ERA vs 5.43 xERA

A 7.25 ERA is scaring people off, but the way he's actually pitching says something closer to mid-fives, and the gap is mostly hitters running hot on balls in play against him. I'll take that discount against Boston tonight.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Ben Rice (bats L) hits 2nd against Logan Gilbert (RHP)

Gilbert starting means Rice gets extra looks against the hand that actually punishes right-handed pitching, and hitting second in front of the middle of the order sets him up to be on base rather than making empty outs. I'm leaning on him across on-base and total-bases markets tonight.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Tanner Scott

Scott's firmly the man in LA — 16 saves, zero committee chatter, one outing over the last three games so he's fully rested. Dodgers are -138 at home over Milwaukee, a strong number for finding a save chance. Diaz sitting behind him with 6 saves is just a name on the depth chart right now, not a threat to the job. Start with confidence — as clean a save spot as this week offers.

Josh Naylor: .950 OPS in Last 15 Days

Double-digit homers already this season, and the swing looks more locked in now than it has all year — one of the bigger recent jumps on the board. I like the 0.5 total bases number tonight; a bat running this hot only needs one clean knock.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Tyler Stephenson (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot

Tyler Stephenson's vs. Right line (.770 OPS, 231 AB) sits well above his .593 mark the other way (56 AB). Tonight's starter Davis Martin throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB

Aaron Nola: 3.24 ERA over his last 3 starts

Whatever was wrong with Nola earlier this year isn't showing up anymore — 17 strikeouts in his last three starts and the runs have dried up with it. Minnesota's catching him in a much better place than his season numbers suggest.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 K

Roki Sasaki: 2.45 ERA over his last 3 starts

21 strikeouts and a sub-1.00 WHIP over his last three starts is a different pitcher than the 4.54 season number on the page. The market's still pricing the old version, and that's where the value is.

P 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 K

Cal Raleigh

Hitting cleanup usually signals the manager still trusts the bat, but a .161 average and a .570 OPS are numbers no four-hole hitter should be running. That's production well south of replacement level regardless of where he slots in the order, and 'he's in the lineup tonight' describes an at-bat, not a skill. Cut. The lineup spot is the manager's confidence, not yours to bank on.

Chase Meidroth: .968 OPS in Last 15 Days

Twelve homers already says there's real power in this profile, and the recent uptick isn't just a couple of soft nights inflating things. The 1.5 total bases number is a tougher ask, needing extra bases or a multi-hit game, but a bat seeing it this well is live for exactly that.

P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB

Shane Bieber: 5.48 ERA vs 7.24 xERA

Bieber's ERA and his actual stuff are telling two different stories — 44% hard contact and barrels over 10% are marks of a guy getting hit, full stop. He's surviving on a .281 average allowed against a .302 he probably deserves, and that kind of gap tends to close, not hold. I'm not trusting the 5.48 at home against the Yankees — the real number's a lot closer to 7.

Tyler Phillips: 3.47 ERA vs 4.95 xERA

Phillips' ERA looks clean but the underlying stuff doesn't back it up — hard contact and traffic that's mostly been bailed out by where the ball's been landing. I like Pittsburgh's bats to finally cash in on that tonight.

P 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K

Wade Meckler: .304 AVG vs .256 xBA

This is as due for a correction as it gets — the widest contact-to-result gap in the group, sitting on the smallest sample too. The power side backs it up, with the extra-base numbers running just as inflated as the average. Betting on him to keep this up tonight is betting the wrong way on a gap this wide.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Nick Sogard (.771 vs RHP) replaces Isiah Kiner-Falefa at 2B tonight

Sogard's leading off tonight, not just filling in, so he sees the most pitches on the roster and sets the tone before the order turns over against Scherzer. His work against right-handers actually runs ahead of his season line, so the fit's legitimate. With two other regulars out of this lineup too, every time he reaches base carries extra weight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB

Ernie Clement (.688 vs LHP) replaces Lenyn Sosa at 2B tonight

Rough draw for Clement to inherit — Tolle's a lefty, exactly where his production falls off, and he's hitting second instead of down the order. Toronto's banking on volume to cover the tough matchup rather than hiding him, which puts more weight on the top of the order to finish innings.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Oneil Cruz

Listed back 8/14 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.

Jordan Lawlar

Listed back 8/14 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.

Jakob Marsee: .838 OPS in Last 15 Days

A real bump in production over the last couple weeks here, the kind that points to better timing and contact, not one hot weekend skewing the line. The 0.5 total bases number is about the easiest ask on the board tonight, and I like his chances of getting there.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Chase Meidroth: .276 AVG vs .234 xBA

A gap like this holding up across close to a full season of at-bats is too much to write off — the entire offensive profile is running ahead of the contact quality, not just the hits. That kind of thing tends to close gradually, not snap back in one game, so I'm not chasing his current pace tonight.

P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB

Dane Myers: .521 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin

Dane Myers's .521 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .699 season mark, down 0.178. Tonight he draws RHP Davis Martin — his weaker side: a .651 OPS vs RHP across 103 AB.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB

Trent Grisham: .871 OPS in Last 15 Days

Smaller jump than some of the other hot bats on the board, but it's built on the deepest sample in the group, and fifteen homers already shows real pop behind it. The 1.5 total bases number wants extra bases or two hits, and a bat with this much established thump has a real path to either.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Wind blowing out 10 mph at Field of Dreams tonight

Tonight's reading at Field of Dreams — Partly Cloudy, 73°, wind 10 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 8.5.

P final total 8 vs 8.5 (over lean)

Esmerlyn Valdez: .246 AVG vs .207 xBA

Early in the season still, and both his average and his overall production are running hotter than the contact quality actually supports. The underlying read is the more trustworthy one right now, and I'd expect the results to keep drifting down toward it as the sample grows.

P 2-for-5, 2 TB

Aaron Nola: 5.47 ERA vs 4.26 xERA

His ERA's been padded by hitters running well above their expected average against him — the strikeout stuff says he can still miss bats just fine. I'd expect that number to come back down to earth against Minnesota.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 K

Parker Messick

Streamer vs DET — 3.08 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP.

Kyle Freeland: 6.63 ERA vs 5.22 xERA

Freeland's still going to give up hard contact, that part's real, but 6.63 is overstating it — some of that's just bad luck. I wouldn't expect another ugly one out of him against San Francisco tomorrow, but I'm not calling him fixed either.

Griffin Conine: 1.091 OPS in Last 15 Days

He's been raking basically all year, so this isn't a hitter suddenly waking up, it's an already-great bat getting a little hotter. Thirteen homers with a season line like that is real power-and-contact, and the 0.5 total bases number is about as comfortable a lean as there is tonight.

P 1-for-2, 1 TB

Carter Baumler

Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.

Clay Holmes: 2.86 ERA vs 4.23 xERA

Holmes has a scary number and a reassuring one living side by side — 45% hard contact, but barrels under 6%, and barrels are what actually turns into runs. A .220 average allowed against a .259 he 'deserves' says some of this is real skill in locating, not just fortune. Still, a full run of separation is a lot to lean on completely, and hosting St. Louis feels like the kind of night a few of those hard-hit balls start finding grass.

Andres Gimenez: .775 OPS in Last 15 Days

The most modest uptick of the group, real but not explosive, with eight homers already showing some pop behind it. Good news is the total bases number only sits at 0.5 — even a quiet hot streak clears that tonight.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB

Ceddanne Rafaela: .286 AVG vs .251 xBA

The wOBA is the number that matters more here than the average — a 54-point cushion over expected is the widest gap anywhere in this group, stacked up over 484 plate appearances, basically a full season. That's a year of extra-base pop the underlying contact hasn't fully supported. Wouldn't pay a premium expecting more of the same tonight.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Keider Montero: 4.96 ERA over his last 3 starts

Montero's given up 16 hits in his last three starts and can't seem to put together a clean outing right now. Cleveland's catching him in a real rough patch.

P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K

JJ Bleday: .631 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin

JJ Bleday's .631 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .785 season mark, down 0.154. Tonight he draws RHP Davis Martin — his stronger side: a .816 OPS vs RHP across 237 AB.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB

Charles McAdoo

A .206 average and a .626 OPS aren't numbers to build around, but he's leading off tonight — the most at-bats and run-scoring looks on the roster — and that OPS, ugly as it is, is still the best of this group. Thin case, but there's marginally more use left in him than in the other two. Hold, for the at-bats alone — but he's on the shortest leash on the roster.

Eugenio Suarez: .839 OPS in Last 15 Days

Over the last 15 days (39 PA) he is at a .839 OPS, up 0.145 on his .694 season mark. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

P 1-for-3, 4 TB

Ernie Clement: .282 AVG vs .250 xBA

His overall production is running even further ahead of its expected mark than his average alone, which points to the power side of his line carrying more of the hot-streak residue than the hits themselves. Total-base markets look shakier here than a straight hits number tied to his average.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Sean Newcomb: 2.66 ERA vs 3.95 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 2.66 ERA against a 3.95 expected ERA (1.29 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .216 vs .252 expected.

Wilyer Abreu

Pickup vs Max Scherzer (5.43 xERA) — .793 OPS, bats 3rd.

Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Agustin Ramirez has caught just 10%

Miami's catcher isn't the arm that makes anyone think twice, so Pittsburgh's runners take the extra base on instinct tonight. It doesn't take an aggressive club to cash this — even a team that runs once a game pulls the trigger at these odds, and once the first one goes, look for a second.

P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base

Ceddanne Rafaela

Pickup vs Max Scherzer (5.43 xERA) — .791 OPS, bats 2nd.

Jakob Marsee

Still hitting 1st for MIA — 0.633 OPS, 0.205 AVG from the 1-hole.

Max Scherzer

Starts tonight for TOR — 5.43 xERA behind a 7.25 ERA.

Logan Gilbert

Streamer vs NYY — 3.73 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 1 WHIP.

Samy Natera Jr. / Jose Fermin

Angels' ninth is genuinely muddled — Natera Jr.'s at just 3 saves and 4 holds with Fermin breathing on him at 1 save and 5 holds, and it's an officially declared committee inside two saves. He's worked 2 of the last 3 games, heavier recent usage than anyone else on this list even though he's still marked fully rested. Add in LAA being a +138 underdog at home to Texas, and a lead to protect is the exception tonight, not the rule. Avoid for saves this week — split role plus a bad game script. Only in play if you're desperate enough to roster both arms and hope.

Michael King: 3.37 ERA vs 4.41 xERA

King's actually limiting hard contact fine, but he's getting bailed out by weak balls finding gloves and a strand rate that won't hold — that ERA's living on borrowed time. I've got this circled for tomorrow — I like Cleveland's bats to get paid off against him.

Bryan Reynolds

Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.95 xERA) — .812 OPS, bats 3rd.

Maikel Garcia

Listed back 8/17 (10-Day-IL, hand) — 0.693 OPS this season.

Leo Jimenez

Still hitting 6th for MIA — 0.591 OPS, 0.210 AVG from the 6-hole.

New York Yankees like to run — Jhonny Pereda (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

This is the rare spot where the aggressive team should think twice — Seattle's catcher has actually been throwing runners out at a real clip. New York will still run, that's who they are, but every attempt in a close spot is a live gamble tonight.

P New York Yankees stole 1 base

Washington Nationals like to run — Miguel Amaya (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Washington Nationals attempt 1.3 steals a game, but Miguel Amaya has cut down 9 of 28 runners (32%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.

P Washington Nationals stole 1 base

Brandon Lowe

Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.95 xERA) — .798 OPS, bats 2nd.

Tyler Stephenson: .860 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 33 PA: a .860 OPS versus .737 for the season, 0.123 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB

Joe Mantiply

Listed back 8/18 (60-Day-IL, knee) — 2.04 ERA this season.

Keider Montero owns a 3.79 ERA at Comerica Park — 2.77 everywhere else

Comerica's supposed to be a pitcher's park, so a guy running a full run worse at home than on the road is on him, not the ballpark. Cleveland's a lineup that puts the ball in play and pressures a defense, exactly the type that's given him trouble at home all year.

P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K

Philadelphia Phillies are 21-11 in one-run games (.656 win%)

A .656 win rate in one-run games is not a repeatable skill, that's a coin flipping their way more often than it should. I wouldn't trust Philadelphia's overall record to reflect how good this team actually is.

NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10

Gilbert's had a rough time in first innings all year and New York still hasn't cashed in on it once in ten tries — that's free runs left on the table. Fried's not exactly locked in early either, so whoever's bats show up first tonight might finally break the trend.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Shane Drohan

Streamer vs LAD — 3.52 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.25 WHIP.

Randal Grichuk

Grichuk's .799 OPS and .26 average from the two-hole are solid on a normal night, and Andrew Abbott's 4.72 xERA — struggling by the numbers — makes tonight better than normal. Deep-league streaming add for tonight's matchup.

Wenceel Perez (RF) is out for DET — Ben Malgeri starts in his place tonight

Malgeri sliding into right for Detroit gives them real thump in the nine-hole — that's production that plays like a second leadoff man, setting the table back up for the top of the order. Perez just went down two days ago, so this is a fresh look, but nothing else in the lineup is shuffling around it. I like what that stability does for Detroit's order against Cleveland tonight.

P 1-for-2, 1 TB

Jarren Duran (.635 vs RHP) replaces Roman Anthony at LF tonight

Duran slides into left and the seven-hole, right where a lineup either extends an inning or hands the pitcher a clean out. The matchup favors him — his work against right-handers runs ahead of his season line over a real sample, so this lineup gets a better version of him against Scherzer than his year-long number suggests. Same-day move, and the third regular out of position in this lineup tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB

Jake Mangum (.730 vs RHP) replaces Oneil Cruz at CF tonight

Mangum stepping in for Cruz in center isn't a real downgrade — his work against right-handers mirrors his season line, and hitting seventh keeps him out of the table-setting job. Pittsburgh's had close to a week to settle into this look, so it's not a scramble. Miami's pitching plan has to respect a legit bat at the bottom of that order tonight.

P 3-for-4, 6 TB

Seth Lugo: 4.41 ERA vs 5.25 xERA

Opponents are hitting Lugo hard, over 40 percent hard contact, and the only thing keeping his ERA respectable is timing that won't hold forever. The Angels are a good enough lineup to be the ones who end that run tomorrow.

Sal Stewart

Pickup vs Davis Martin (4.66 xERA) — .804 OPS, bats 2nd.

Nathan Lukes (.375 vs LHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight

Lukes taking over in right is a real step down against lefties for Toronto — his numbers there are well off his season line, and Tolle gives him nothing to work with tonight. Batting ninth limits the exposure some, but Toronto's already light against left-handed pitching up the order, so the top of the lineup is carrying more weight than usual. Barger's been out over two weeks, so this is the settled look, not an improvisation.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Andruw Monasterio (.674 vs RHP) replaces Trevor Story at SS tonight

Monasterio's at shortstop and hitting eighth, low-pressure on paper, but he's the one turning the lineup over to the pitcher's spot most innings, which affects how many extra chances the top of the order gets. The matchup's the rough part — his work against right-handers sits well below his season line, and Scherzer's exactly the arm that split shows up against. A week out for the guy he's replacing means he's had time to get real reps in the role.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Nick Gonzales

Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.95 xERA) — .760 OPS, bats 4th.

Green light: Philadelphia Phillies run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 15%

Jeffers can't control the running game right now, and Philadelphia's already one of the most aggressive teams on the bases in the league — bad combination for Minnesota. Every free base the Phillies take is a run that doesn't need a barreled ball behind it. Expect Minnesota's staff to spend tonight managing the bases instead of just pitching to contact.

P Philadelphia Phillies stole 1 base

Jacob Gonzalez

Still hitting 6th for PIT — 0.662 OPS, 0.233 AVG from the 6-hole.

Kevin Gausman

Streamer vs WSH — 3.84 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 1.26 WHIP.

Robert Garcia

Listed back 8/20 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.

Nick Mears

Listed back 8/21 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 5.12 ERA this season.

MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Nola's prone to the long ball early, seven first-inning homers this year, but Minnesota hasn't made anyone pay for it lately. That puts more weight on Bradley to hold the line early, and his first-inning number says that's no sure thing either.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Ashcraft's given up five first-inning homers this season and Pittsburgh still isn't scoring early to back him up, one run in ten tries. Phillips has his own first-inning issues too, so whichever team actually shows up in the first frame probably controls this game.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Gavin Stone

Listed back 8/21 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).

Trevor Megill

Megill's still the guy in Milwaukee — 21 saves, no committee, with Uribe well back at 6 saves despite piling up 18 holds. The flag is workload: he threw yesterday, so even with only one outing counted over the last three games this isn't a fresh arm tonight. Layer in the Brewers as +128 underdogs at Dodger Stadium and a save chance is a longshot script. Own him for the role long-term, but don't lean on saves from him this week — tonight specifically is a below-average spot between the short rest and the underdog price.