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2026-08-13

The stored Gary board for Thu, Aug 13. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

9
MLB1:10 PM

Guardians @ Tigers

Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park, a rubber match with both clubs fighting for oxygen in the AL playoff race. I’m backing Cleveland to leave Detroit with the series. Parker Messick is the separator. His fastball plays above its velocity, his changeup gives Detroit’s right-handed lineup a second problem, and he has allowed only four earned runs across his last three starts. The Tigers are also navigating their first series without Riley Greene, while Keider Montero enters off a shakier stretch and must deal with Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter setting the table for a Cleveland lineup showing signs of life. Cade Smith’s 38-pitch save Wednesday makes the late innings less comfortable, so I need Messick to carry the workload. I believe he does, and Cleveland’s deeper lineup produces enough against Montero to make it stand. One unit on the Guardians moneyline at -108.

Guardians ML-108
CONF
62%
MLB1:10 PM

Pirates @ Marlins

The roof is closed in Miami for a getaway-day finale, with the Marlins chasing a sweep and the Pirates trying to leave town with something. My money is on Pittsburgh to stop the bleeding. Braxton Ashcraft is the swing factor. His recent road work has been shaky, but the high-90s velocity is intact, he has six days’ rest, and his curveball gives him a legitimate put-away pitch against a Miami lineup with several vulnerable bats. Tyler Phillips has been effective at home, but he rarely works deep, allows loud contact, and is less comfortable against left-handed hitters. That gives Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Spencer Horwitz a chance to turn the lineup over and force Miami into its weaker bullpen. Pittsburgh has scored twice in this series and arrives on a three-game skid, so this is not a comfortable favorite. That discomfort is part of the handicap: Miami’s four-game streak and 2-0 series lead make the plus-money home side look inviting, yet the Pirates still opened favored. I’m backing the rested starter, the stronger late-inning relief corps, and a professional response after an ugly loss. Pirates moneyline at -119.

Pirates ML-119
CONF
59%
MLB1:35 PM

Mariners @ Yankees

Gary's Take A warm afternoon in the Bronx, the wind drifting toward the short porch, and the Yankees are hunting a sweep before leaving town. Seattle arrives with six straight losses and its season beginning to feel heavier by the inning. Gilbert can keep this close early, but Fried is the starter I trust more in this matchup. His command and contact suppression attack a Mariners offense scoring just 2.5 runs per game over its last 10, while New York owns the deeper lineup and a substantial late-inning advantage. I’m passing on the expensive Yankees moneyline and taking the plus price. If Gilbert blinks once, Seattle’s battered bullpen—19 earned runs over its last seven games—creates the separation. Yankees 4, Mariners 2.

Yankees -1.5+134
CONF
59%
MLB1:10 PM

Reds @ White Sox

Gary's Take A cloudy getaway afternoon at Rate Field, the series tied, with both clubs boarding flights after the final out. This feels like the kind of rubber game decided before the bullpens can start dictating every matchup. Andrew Abbott is the separator. His 2.89 road ERA is supported by a steady run of competitive starts away from Cincinnati, and six days’ rest should help him attack a Chicago lineup that is merely ordinary against left-handed pitching. The wind coming in from left also takes a little danger out of Abbott’s most vulnerable pitch, his four-seamer. Davis Martin is coming back on three days’ rest after allowing 14 earned runs across his last 12 innings. I respect the pitch-tipping correction, but correcting the tell does not automatically correct elevated fastballs or a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Cincinnati has been cold enough to make this uncomfortable, yet Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson and Eugenio Suárez give the Reds sufficient damage upside against a starter vulnerable early. At plus money, I’m taking Abbott to provide the cleaner six innings and Cincinnati to win the game outright.

Reds ML+119
CONF
63%
MLB3:07 PM

Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Gary's Take Day baseball at Rogers Centre, with Toronto lining up the brooms and Boston trying to stop a five-game skid. One rookie power lefty, one future Hall of Famer, and no shortage of pressure in the getaway game. Payton Tolle is the separator. Toronto owns a .628 OPS against left-handed pitching and is sending out a heavily right-handed lineup without two of this series’ productive bats in Alejandro Kirk and Brett Bateman. Tolle has held righties to a .620 OPS, and his fastball, cutter and curve give him several ways to miss bats. Max Scherzer has stabilized lately, but Boston’s left-handed bats can attack a fastball that has been hittable all season. I’m paying the -138 instead of getting greedy with the run line. Toronto has played too many close games, and its late-inning combination of Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland can keep any deficit tight. Boston has the starting-pitching advantage and enough fresh relief behind Tolle to protect a lead. One unit on the Red Sox moneyline.

Red Sox ML-138
CONF
64%
MLB4:05 PM

Cubs @ Nationals

Gary's Take A hot August afternoon at Nationals Park, getaway-day baseball, and Chicago walks in hunting the sweep after hanging 20 runs on Washington in two nights. The Cubs have owned the series, but the price is now charging us for everything we just watched. Cade Cavalli is the reason I’m taking the other side. He has delivered six straight quality starts, his curveball and sweeper are legitimate escape pitches, and he has completed six innings in every start during that run. Kevin Gausman has stabilized lately, but his road body of work remains less trustworthy, and Washington has scored six runs in both games despite losing. Chicago has the better club and bullpen, but -146 is too expensive when Washington may have the starting-pitching edge. I’m betting Cavalli keeps this close long enough for the rested late-inning arms to steal it. One unit on the Nationals at +136.

Nationals ML+136
CONF
58%
MLB7:30 PM

Phillies @ Twins

Gary's Take The corn is waiting in Dyersville, the storms are circling, and two clubs arrive with October pressure already building. This is a near pick’em under the lights, and I’m putting my $100 on Minnesota. Taj Bradley is the arm I trust more at essentially the same price. His cutter and splitter give him legitimate finishing weapons against a Philadelphia lineup that has scored once across its last two games, while Aaron Nola brings a 5.47 ERA, persistent home-run trouble and a bruised push-off knee into an unusual setting. Nola has pitched better lately, but Minnesota is dangerous against right-handers and has Bell and Lewis driving the baseball with authority. Buxton’s return changes the shape of the Twins’ order even if he is not yet fully sharp, and Minnesota’s bullpen has been steadier than Philadelphia’s over the past week. The Phillies have the names capable of flipping this game, which keeps my confidence measured, but laying only -104 makes Bradley, the hotter middle of the lineup and the cleaner current relief form worth the bet.

Twins ML-104
CONF
62%
MLB10:07 PM

Rangers @ Angels

Gary's Take Thursday night in Anaheim, getaway game, with the Angels chasing a series-clinching third straight win and Texas trying to stop the bleeding. The market is asking me to pay for Jacob deGrom’s name; I’d rather take the home dog. Walbert Ureña is the separator. He owns a 2.49 ERA at Angel Stadium, has held Texas to one earned run across nine innings this season, and his power changeup/sweeper combination attacks a Rangers lineup loaded with left-handed bats. Texas is also struggling badly behind Pederson, Seager and Nimmo, with Langford, Carter, Lopez and Duran all carrying cold bats. DeGrom can dominate, but he has a short leash, a 4.87 road ERA and nine earned runs allowed in nine innings against these Angels. Once this reaches the bullpens, the starting-pitching advantage implied by Rangers -141 shrinks fast. The Angels have already shown they can win the tight innings in this matchup, and +131 is enough compensation to bet they do it again.

Angels ML+131
CONF
61%
MLB10:10 PM

Brewers @ Dodgers

Gary's Take Thursday night at Dodger Stadium, two division leaders meet with October positioning already hanging in the air. Milwaukee arrives bruised from a sweep; Los Angeles has won three straight at home. Roki Sasaki is the separator. His season line still carries the damage from an uneven first half, but his delivery, velocity and splitter have stabilized. Milwaukee’s pressing lineup has scored seven runs in three games, and its struggling hitters must resist chasing the pitch Sasaki uses to finish at-bats. I considered the Dodgers’ run line, but Betts and Muncy are resting while Freeman and Ohtani are playing through discomfort. That makes laying 1.5 too ambitious. Still, Shane Drohan’s recent command problems and vulnerable sinker give Los Angeles enough paths to score, and the moneyline protects us if this turns into the tight game these clubs usually play.

Dodgers ML-136
CONF
62%

Player props

22
MLB · Guardians @ Tigers

Parker Messick

Messick has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, including just four across his last 19 innings. Detroit owns a modest .706 OPS against lefties and is now missing Riley Greene from a lineup featuring seven right-handed bats—the side Messick has limited to a .584 OPS. His fastball-changeup combination should play well in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. The price is heavy, but under 2.5 is still worth laying it.

UNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-165
MLB · Guardians @ Tigers

Parker Messick

Messick has recorded at least six strikeouts in four consecutive starts, totaling 20 over his last 19 innings. His four-seamer and changeup both generate strong swing-and-miss rates, and Detroit's right-handed-heavy lineup plays into the split he has controlled all season. With Cleveland's bullpen carrying a significant workload from Wednesday, Messick should get every opportunity to work deep enough to clear this number. I like over 5.5 at plus money.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+105
MLB HR · Pirates @ Marlins

Griffin Conine

Conine is seeing the ball exceptionally well: five home runs over his last 15 days, a 96.7 mph recent average exit velocity and four barrels on just 15 balls in play. Ashcraft has surrendered 13 of his 19 home runs to left-handed hitters and has allowed nine homers across his last six starts. With Conine batting cleanup and getting +500 against that vulnerability, I’m taking the home-run upside.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500
MLB · Pirates @ Marlins

Braxton Ashcraft

Ashcraft has completed six innings in just one of his last six starts, and his recent workload has generally settled around five. Miami also has several contact-oriented hitters who can extend innings, while Conine supplies the power threat that can accelerate Ashcraft’s pitch count. He lasted five innings in his earlier start against the Marlins, and I expect a similar hook in this getaway-day matchup. Under 17.5 outs at -110.

UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-110
MLB · Pirates @ Marlins

Esteury Ruiz

Ruiz has recorded a stolen base in six of his last 13 appearances, and Pittsburgh is starting Rafael Flores Jr., who has yet to throw out a runner in 12 attempts. Ruiz has also been productive in limited recent action and owns a .338 average in day games, giving him a credible path to first base despite hitting ninth. One opportunity could be enough against this battery, and +311 is worth the shot.

OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases+311
MLB · Mariners @ Yankees

Max Fried

I’ll take even money on Fried holding Seattle below two earned runs. The Mariners own a .640 OPS against lefties and are scoring only 2.5 runs per game over their last 10. Fried has allowed one earned run across his two August starts, and his 1.4% barrel rate gives this homer-dependent lineup very little room for error.

UNDER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+100
MLB · Mariners @ Yankees

Weston Wilson

Wilson is 3-for-21 over his last 15 days and owns a .178 average in day games. Now he draws Fried, who has held right-handed hitters to a .204 average with a .542 OPS. Batting seventh against Fried and the stronger bullpen, Wilson needs to beat a difficult matchup at least once. At nearly even money, I’ll bet he doesn’t.

UNDER 0.5 Total Bases-110
MLB · Reds @ White Sox

Andrew Abbott

Abbott can pitch a good game and still walk two batters. He has exceeded this line in six of his last eight starts, including 11 walks across his last three, and his 61 walks in 128.2 innings show this is more than a brief command lapse. Chicago has enough disciplined hitters to extend counts and resist his secondary pitches below the zone. I like Abbott to control the damage, but even money is too generous on two walks before he exits.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks+100
MLB · Reds @ White Sox

Davis Martin

Martin should receive a normal leash after rain limited him to 23 pitches Sunday, making five hits over approximately five innings a modest requirement. Lefties are batting .264 against him and righties .269, while his 44.2% hard-hit rate leaves multiple paths to sustained contact.

OVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed+120
MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Payton Tolle

Tolle has cleared this number in seven of his last eight starts, including six straight, and just generated 14 strikeouts on 84 pitches. His fastball, cutter and curveball all miss bats, giving him multiple put-away options against Toronto’s six right-handed starters.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-125
MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Max Scherzer

Scherzer has exceeded four strikeouts in only one of his last eight starts. He has 27 strikeouts across 36 innings this season, while his fastball and slider have produced modest whiff rates compared with the versions of those pitches that once drove his strikeout ceiling.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts-150
MLB · Cubs @ Nationals

Cade Cavalli

Cavalli has completed six innings in six consecutive starts and cleared this number in seven of his last eight. He has allowed three runs or fewer throughout that six-start run, and his curveball and sweeper give him the weapons to navigate Chicago’s hottest bats without needing perfect fastball command.

OVER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-120
MLB · Phillies @ Twins

Aaron Nola

I only need Minnesota to get three earned runs against Nola at nearly even money. His recent results have improved, but the larger profile still shows a 5.47 ERA, 29 home runs allowed and an OPS above .800 against hitters from either side.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-105
MLB · Phillies @ Twins

Royce Lewis

Lewis has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games, including two doubles Wednesday, and his current contact supports the production. He is batting .379 over the last 15 days and recently averaged 91.7 mph off the bat with 10 hard-hit balls. Nola has allowed right-handed hitters a .282 average and .816 OPS, while both of his primary fastballs have been hit hard. Lewis can cash this with one extra-base hit or two singles, and +140 is enough value for me to back the hottest hitter in Minnesota's lineup.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+140
MLB HR · Phillies @ Twins

Josh Bell

Bell is doing everything right at the plate right now — a .393 average and better than a 1.000 OPS over his last week, with three homers and nine RBI in his last fifteen games. The exit-velocity gains are real too, 88.6 mph average with three barrels in his last 25 balls in play, so this isn't just a hot streak of bloop hits. He's caught fire at the exact moment Aaron Nola walks into Dyersville dragging a 5.47 ERA and a fastball/sinker combo that opposing hitters are batting .350 against this season. Bell has personally gone deep against Nola more than once in their head-to-head history, and a switch-hitter running this hot against a pitcher this hittable, in a made-for-TV setting with everyone locked in, is exactly the swing I want on the board at plus-500.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500
MLB HR · Phillies @ Twins

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber is the best pure power threat on this field and he's been locked in — two homers and six RBI over his last week, a 1.18 OPS, and three barrels squeezed into just 17 balls in play. Taj Bradley is a legitimate arm with a mid-90s heater and a nasty splitter, but the one crack in his season has been left-handed power: lefties are hitting just .206 against him, yet they've still taken him deep twelve times in 287 at-bats, a far higher home-run rate than what he allows to righties. Schwarber is a lefty who doesn't need to hit for average to do damage, and he's exactly the bat capable of turning one mistake pitch into a punished one. Plus-250 is short, but it's short for a reason.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+250
MLB HR · Phillies @ Twins

Bryce Harper

Harper is riding a monster two weeks — three homers, eight RBI, a 1.054 OPS over his last fifteen games — and he carried it into this week with a homer and three RBI in his last seven. The underlying data backs it up: 89.3 mph average exit velocity and a manageable 24 percent whiff rate, meaning he's squaring the ball up consistently, not just running hot. He steps in as a left-handed bat against Taj Bradley, who has quietly allowed twelve home runs to lefties in just 287 at-bats this year despite a low average against him — that platoon damage is specifically about power, not general command trouble. Harper against that exact weakness, at this level of form, is a matchup I want at plus-440.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+440
MLB HR · Phillies @ Twins

Royce Lewis

Nobody in this lineup is seeing the ball better than Royce Lewis right now. He's 33-for-105 since July 9 with a .562 slugging percentage, and Wednesday's two-double game was just the latest entry in a stretch where his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and expected slugging have all been trending up since July.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+430
MLB · Rangers @ Angels

Jacob deGrom

Getting 18 outs has become the exception for deGrom. He has cleared this line in only three of his last eight starts and just once in his last six.

UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-111
MLB · Rangers @ Angels

Walbert Urena

Urena has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts and owns a 2.49 ERA at Angel Stadium. His changeup and sweeper have limited both sides of the plate, while Texas has scored only eight runs through the first three games of this series and continues to waste its limited opportunities. Urena has surrendered one earned run across nine innings against the Rangers this season, and his managed workload also reduces the time available for a fourth run to cross.

UNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-155
MLB · Brewers @ Dodgers

Jake Bauers

Bauers is Milwaukee’s best current combination of patience and hard contact, batting .300 with three homers over the last 15 days and producing a 94.7 mph recent average exit velocity. Sasaki has improved, but left-handed hitters still own a .749 OPS against him. At this price, I only need one ball to find grass.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-120
MLB · Brewers @ Dodgers

Shane Drohan

Drohan can clear this number without pitching a clean game. His four-seamer and slider both generate strong swing-and-miss rates, and he has recorded at least five strikeouts in six of his last eight starts. With Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández carrying elevated recent whiff rates and Los Angeles replacing Betts and Muncy with weaker bats, five strikeouts is a reasonable target at nearly even money.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts-109

Hub research

146

Graded results

31

Games

  • L

    Guardians ML -108

    MLB · 0-3

  • W

    Pirates ML -119

    MLB · 13-1

  • W

    Reds ML +119

    MLB · 9-8

  • L

    Yankees -1.5 +134

    MLB · 1-0

  • W

    Red Sox ML -138

    MLB · 7-0

  • W

    Nationals ML +136

    MLB · 0-7

  • L

    Twins ML -104

    MLB · 7-1

  • W

    Angels ML +131

    MLB · 0-7

  • L

    Dodgers ML -136

    MLB · 5-4

Props

  • L

    Aaron Nola · over

    Phillies @ Twins · Actual 1

  • W

    Andrew Abbott · over

    Reds @ White Sox · Actual 3

  • L

    Braxton Ashcraft · under

    Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 27

  • L

    Bryce Harper · over

    Phillies @ Twins · Actual 0

  • W

    Cade Cavalli · over

    Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 24

  • L

    Davis Martin · over

    Reds @ White Sox · Actual 2

  • L

    Esteury Ruiz · over

    Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 0

  • L

    Griffin Conine · over

    Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 0

  • W

    Jacob deGrom · under

    Rangers @ Angels · Actual 6

  • W

    Jake Bauers · over

    Brewers @ Dodgers · Actual 1

  • L

    Josh Bell · over

    Phillies @ Twins · Actual 0

  • W

    Kyle Schwarber · over

    Phillies @ Twins · Actual 2

  • W

    Max Fried · under

    Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 1

  • W

    Max Scherzer · under

    Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 4

  • W

    Parker Messick · under

    Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 2

  • W

    Parker Messick · over

    Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 6

  • L

    Payton Tolle · over

    Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 4

  • L

    Royce Lewis · over

    Phillies @ Twins · Actual 0

  • L

    Royce Lewis · over

    Phillies @ Twins · Actual 0

  • W

    Shane Drohan · over

    Brewers @ Dodgers · Actual 5

  • W

    Walbert Urena · under

    Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0

  • L

    Weston Wilson · under

    Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 4