Pirates at Marlins
O/U 5.5 · RL Pirates -1.5
Pirates ML-119
CONF 59%
WCashedFinal 13-1
The read
The roof is closed in Miami for a getaway-day finale, with the Marlins chasing a sweep and the Pirates trying to leave town with something. My money is on Pittsburgh to stop the bleeding.
Braxton Ashcraft is the swing factor. His recent road work has been shaky, but the high-90s velocity is intact, he has six days’ rest, and his curveball gives him a legitimate put-away pitch against a Miami lineup with several vulnerable bats. Tyler Phillips has been effective at home, but he rarely works deep, allows loud contact, and is less comfortable against left-handed hitters. That gives Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Spencer Horwitz a chance to turn the lineup over and force Miami into its weaker bullpen.
Pittsburgh has scored twice in this series and arrives on a three-game skid, so this is not a comfortable favorite. That discomfort is part of the handicap: Miami’s four-game streak and 2-0 series lead make the plus-money home side look inviting, yet the Pirates still opened favored. I’m backing the rested starter, the stronger late-inning relief corps, and a professional response after an ugly loss. Pirates moneyline at -119.
Props on this game
3Griffin ConineOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+500
LActual 0
Conine is seeing the ball exceptionally well: five home runs over his last 15 days, a 96.7 mph recent average exit velocity and four barrels on just 15 balls in play. Ashcraft has surrendered 13 of his 19 home runs to left-handed hitters and has allowed nine homers across his last six starts. With Conine batting cleanup and getting +500 against that vulnerability, I’m taking the home-run upside.
Braxton AshcraftUNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-110
LActual 27
Ashcraft has completed six innings in just one of his last six starts, and his recent workload has generally settled around five. Miami also has several contact-oriented hitters who can extend innings, while Conine supplies the power threat that can accelerate Ashcraft’s pitch count. He lasted five innings in his earlier start against the Marlins, and I expect a similar hook in this getaway-day matchup. Under 17.5 outs at -110.
Esteury RuizOVER 0.5 Stolen Bases Stolen Bases+311
LActual 0
Ruiz has recorded a stolen base in six of his last 13 appearances, and Pittsburgh is starting Rafael Flores Jr., who has yet to throw out a runner in 12 attempts. Ruiz has also been productive in limited recent action and owns a .338 average in day games, giving him a credible path to first base despite hitting ninth. One opportunity could be enough against this battery, and +311 is worth the shot.
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