Red Sox at Blue Jays
O/U 7.5 · RL Red Sox -1.5
Red Sox ML-138
CONF 64%
WCashedFinal 7-0
The read
Gary's Take Day baseball at Rogers Centre, with Toronto lining up the brooms and Boston trying to stop a five-game skid. One rookie power lefty, one future Hall of Famer, and no shortage of pressure in the getaway game.
Payton Tolle is the separator. Toronto owns a .628 OPS against left-handed pitching and is sending out a heavily right-handed lineup without two of this series’ productive bats in Alejandro Kirk and Brett Bateman. Tolle has held righties to a .620 OPS, and his fastball, cutter and curve give him several ways to miss bats. Max Scherzer has stabilized lately, but Boston’s left-handed bats can attack a fastball that has been hittable all season.
I’m paying the -138 instead of getting greedy with the run line. Toronto has played too many close games, and its late-inning combination of Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland can keep any deficit tight. Boston has the starting-pitching advantage and enough fresh relief behind Tolle to protect a lead. One unit on the Red Sox moneyline.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored August 13, 2026 at 11:41 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2Payton TolleOVER 5.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-125
LActual 4
Tolle has cleared this number in seven of his last eight starts, including six straight, and just generated 14 strikeouts on 84 pitches. His fastball, cutter and curveball all miss bats, giving him multiple put-away options against Toronto’s six right-handed starters.
The Blue Jays generally make contact, but this lineup also includes several hitters running elevated whiff rates. Even if Boston continues managing Tolle’s workload, he has shown he can reach six strikeouts without pitching deep. I’ll lay -125 on the over.
Max ScherzerUNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-150
WActual 4
Scherzer has exceeded four strikeouts in only one of his last eight starts. He has 27 strikeouts across 36 innings this season, while his fastball and slider have produced modest whiff rates compared with the versions of those pitches that once drove his strikeout ceiling.
Boston can make him work, and Scherzer has completed six innings only twice in nine starts. With five strikeouts requiring both improved swing-and-miss and enough length, I’m backing the under despite the heavier price.
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