Reds at White Sox
O/U 13.5 · RL White Sox -1.5
Reds ML+119
CONF 63%
WCashedFinal 9-8
The read
Gary's Take A cloudy getaway afternoon at Rate Field, the series tied, with both clubs boarding flights after the final out. This feels like the kind of rubber game decided before the bullpens can start dictating every matchup.
Andrew Abbott is the separator. His 2.89 road ERA is supported by a steady run of competitive starts away from Cincinnati, and six days’ rest should help him attack a Chicago lineup that is merely ordinary against left-handed pitching. The wind coming in from left also takes a little danger out of Abbott’s most vulnerable pitch, his four-seamer.
Davis Martin is coming back on three days’ rest after allowing 14 earned runs across his last 12 innings. I respect the pitch-tipping correction, but correcting the tell does not automatically correct elevated fastballs or a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Cincinnati has been cold enough to make this uncomfortable, yet Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson and Eugenio Suárez give the Reds sufficient damage upside against a starter vulnerable early. At plus money, I’m taking Abbott to provide the cleaner six innings and Cincinnati to win the game outright.
Props on this game
2Andrew AbbottOVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks Pitcher Walks+100
WActual 3
Abbott can pitch a good game and still walk two batters. He has exceeded this line in six of his last eight starts, including 11 walks across his last three, and his 61 walks in 128.2 innings show this is more than a brief command lapse. Chicago has enough disciplined hitters to extend counts and resist his secondary pitches below the zone. I like Abbott to control the damage, but even money is too generous on two walks before he exits.
Davis MartinOVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed+120
LActual 2
Martin should receive a normal leash after rain limited him to 23 pitches Sunday, making five hits over approximately five innings a modest requirement. Lefties are batting .264 against him and righties .269, while his 44.2% hard-hit rate leaves multiple paths to sustained contact.
He allowed at least five hits in four of his last five full starts. Cincinnati has been cold, but Sal Stewart and Tyler Stephenson are seeing the ball well enough, and Eugenio Suárez remains a threat whenever Martin misses over the plate.
At plus money, I will back the Reds to collect five hits without requiring them to turn every opportunity into a run.
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