MLB · Thu, Aug 13 · 1:10 PM

Reds at White Sox

O/U 13.5 · RL White Sox -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· +119

Gary's Take A cloudy getaway afternoon at Rate Field, the series tied, with both clubs boarding flights after the final out. This feels like the kind of rubber game decided before the bullpens can start dictating every matchup. Andrew Abbott is the separator. His 2.89 road ERA is supported by a steady run of competitive starts away from Cincinnati, and six days’ rest should help him attack a Chicago lineup that is merely ordinary against left-handed pitching. The wind coming in from left also takes a little danger out of Abbott’s most vulnerable pitch, his four-seamer. Davis Martin is coming back on three days’ rest after allowing 14 earned runs across his last 12 innings. I respect the pitch-tipping correction, but correcting the tell does not automatically correct elevated fastballs or a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Cincinnati has been cold enough to make this uncomfortable, yet Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson and Eugenio Suárez give the Reds sufficient damage upside against a starter vulnerable early. At plus money, I’m taking Abbott to provide the cleaner six innings and Cincinnati to win the game outright.

The pick & result

Published pick: Reds ML +119
Published odds: +119
Result: Won
Final score: 9-8

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Andrew Abbott is the separator. His 2.89 road ERA is supported by a steady run of competitive starts away from Cincinnati, and six days’ rest should help him attack a Chicago lineup that is merely ordinary against left-handed pitching. The wind coming in from left also takes a little danger out of Abbott’s most vulnerable pitch, his four-seamer.

Davis Martin is coming back on three days’ rest after allowing 14 earned runs across his last 12 innings. I respect the pitch-tipping correction, but correcting the tell does not automatically correct elevated fastballs or a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Cincinnati has been cold enough to make this uncomfortable, yet Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson and Eugenio Suárez give the Reds sufficient damage upside against a starter vulnerable early. At plus money, I’m taking Abbott to provide the cleaner six innings and Cincinnati to win the game outright.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Davis Martin: 10.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
10.50
Martin's fallen off a cliff — 14 earned runs in his last 12 innings and he can't get through a lineup clean anymore. Cincinnati doesn't need to be patient here, they just need to keep the line moving early.

PLATOON EDGE

Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
.899
Abbott starting puts Grichuk right in the matchup that's supposed to work for a right-handed bat, and hitting second gets him extra trips in a lineup built to keep the line moving. Wide split plus early volume is why he's one of my favorite secondary pieces tonight.
Chase Meidroth (bats R) hits 1st against Andrew Abbott (LHP)
.928
Leadoff against a lefty he already beats up means Meidroth gets three or four looks at this exact matchup tonight. That volume on top of the platoon edge is the profile I want at the top of a lineup — on-base and multi-hit over one big swing.
Tyler Stephenson (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
.770
Tyler Stephenson's vs. Right line (.770 OPS, 231 AB) sits well above his .593 mark the other way (56 AB). Tonight's starter Davis Martin throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

HEAT CHECK

Chase Meidroth: .968 OPS in Last 15 Days
.968
Twelve homers already says there's real power in this profile, and the recent uptick isn't just a couple of soft nights inflating things. The 1.5 total bases number is a tougher ask, needing extra bases or a multi-hit game, but a bat seeing it this well is live for exactly that.
Eugenio Suarez: .839 OPS in Last 15 Days
.839
Over the last 15 days (39 PA) he is at a .839 OPS, up 0.145 on his .694 season mark. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
Tyler Stephenson: .860 OPS in Last 15 Days
.860
The last 15 days sample runs 33 PA: a .860 OPS versus .737 for the season, 0.123 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

COOLING OFF

Braden Montgomery: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott
.469
Abbott's one of the tougher looks Montgomery can draw, and his numbers against lefties already trail his season mark. He's been worse than even that weaker-side rate the last two weeks, so this reads as a broader cold spell, not just a platoon issue.
Dane Myers: .521 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
.521
Dane Myers's .521 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .699 season mark, down 0.178. Tonight he draws RHP Davis Martin — his weaker side: a .651 OPS vs RHP across 103 AB.
JJ Bleday: .631 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
.631
JJ Bleday's .631 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .785 season mark, down 0.154. Tonight he draws RHP Davis Martin — his stronger side: a .816 OPS vs RHP across 237 AB.

HR THREAT

Eugenio Suarez
+465
Gary's Take Nobody in this lineup is running hotter than Suarez. Three homers in his last seven games, a stretch that's produced a 1.233 OPS, and five barreled balls on just thirteen balls in play — that's not empty contact, that's squaring the ball up at an elite rate.
Elly De La Cruz
+484
Gary's Take De La Cruz has been the igniter for this Cincinnati lineup all series, delivering the sacrifice fly that scored the winning run in the extra-inning win two nights ago. The power has held up even while the average has dipped — two homers in his last seven games, including a leadoff blast into the seats in left to open a game outright back on August 6.
Miguel Vargas
+364
Gary's Take Vargas has cleared this homer line in four of his last fifteen games, the best rate anyone on this board is carrying right now, and his most recent one came just two nights ago off Lodolo. He gets a lefty tonight in Abbott, and Abbott's own numbers back the matchup — he's allowing a home run every 27 at-bats to right-handed hitters like Vargas, compared to every 35 at-bats against lefties.

BULLPEN

Chicago White Sox pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
13 IP
Smith's unavailable after a heavy workload and Chicago's already dipping into names like Hicks and Taylor to cover innings. Cincinnati's in a good spot to make this ugly if the starter doesn't give length.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Reds are 4-1 vs White Sox this season
4-1
A 9-8 final last time out says this series has been about offense beating the other side's arms, not shutdown pitching, and Cincinnati's won that fight 4-1. Five games is close to the full book on this matchup. If tonight turns into another track meet, I like the Reds' side of that history.

REGRESSION

Chase Meidroth: .276 AVG vs .234 xBA
.234
A gap like this holding up across close to a full season of at-bats is too much to write off — the entire offensive profile is running ahead of the contact quality, not just the hits. That kind of thing tends to close gradually, not snap back in one game, so I'm not chasing his current pace tonight.

CLOSER WATCH

Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
6 SV
Shared ninth in CHW: Grant Taylor 6 saves, Bryan Hudson 4. The role is live.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Randal Grichuk
.799 OPS
Grichuk's .799 OPS and .26 average from the two-hole are solid on a normal night, and Andrew Abbott's 4.72 xERA — struggling by the numbers — makes tonight better than normal. Deep-league streaming add for tonight's matchup.
Sal Stewart
.804 OPS
Pickup vs Davis Martin (4.66 xERA) — .804 OPS, bats 2nd.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored August 13, 2026 at 11:41 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ANDREW ABBOTTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
MLBCincinnati Reds· +100
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Abbott can pitch a good game and still walk two batters. He has exceeded this line in six of his last eight starts, including 11 walks across his last three, and his 61 walks in 128.2 innings show this is more than a brief command lapse. Chicago has enough disciplined hitters to extend counts and resist his secondary pitches below the zone. I like Abbott to control the damage, but even money is too generous on two walks before he exits.
Andrew Abbott
Pitcher Walks over 1.5
+100 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Cincinnati Reds
Abbott can pitch a good game and still walk two batters. He has exceeded this line in six of his last eight starts, including 11 walks across his last three, and his 61 walks in 128.2 innings show this is more than a brief command lapse. Chicago has enough disciplined hitters to extend counts and resist his secondary pitches below the zone. I like Abbott to control the damage, but even money is too generous on two walks before he exits.
GARY'S PICK
DAVIS MARTINPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5
MLBChicago White Sox· +120
LOST · ACTUAL 2
Martin should receive a normal leash after rain limited him to 23 pitches Sunday, making five hits over approximately five innings a modest requirement. Lefties are batting .264 against him and righties .269, while his 44.2% hard-hit rate leaves multiple paths to sustained contact. He allowed at least five hits in four of his last five full starts. Cincinnati has been cold, but Sal Stewart and Tyler Stephenson are seeing the ball well enough, and Eugenio Suárez remains a threat whenever Martin misses over the plate. At plus money, I will back the Reds to collect five hits without requiring them to turn every opportunity into a run.
Davis Martin
Pitcher Hits Allowed over 4.5
+120 · LOST · ACTUAL 2
Chicago White Sox
Martin should receive a normal leash after rain limited him to 23 pitches Sunday, making five hits over approximately five innings a modest requirement. Lefties are batting .264 against him and righties .269, while his 44.2% hard-hit rate leaves multiple paths to sustained contact.
He allowed at least five hits in four of his last five full starts. Cincinnati has been cold, but Sal Stewart and Tyler Stephenson are seeing the ball well enough, and Eugenio Suárez remains a threat whenever Martin misses over the plate.
At plus money, I will back the Reds to collect five hits without requiring them to turn every opportunity into a run.

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