Rangers at Angels
O/U 7.5 · RL Rangers -1.5
Angels ML+131
CONF 61%
WCashedFinal 0-7
The read
Gary's Take Thursday night in Anaheim, getaway game, with the Angels chasing a series-clinching third straight win and Texas trying to stop the bleeding. The market is asking me to pay for Jacob deGrom’s name; I’d rather take the home dog.
Walbert Ureña is the separator. He owns a 2.49 ERA at Angel Stadium, has held Texas to one earned run across nine innings this season, and his power changeup/sweeper combination attacks a Rangers lineup loaded with left-handed bats. Texas is also struggling badly behind Pederson, Seager and Nimmo, with Langford, Carter, Lopez and Duran all carrying cold bats.
DeGrom can dominate, but he has a short leash, a 4.87 road ERA and nine earned runs allowed in nine innings against these Angels. Once this reaches the bullpens, the starting-pitching advantage implied by Rangers -141 shrinks fast. The Angels have already shown they can win the tight innings in this matchup, and +131 is enough compensation to bet they do it again.
Props on this game
2Jacob deGromUNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-111
WActual 6
Getting 18 outs has become the exception for deGrom. He has cleared this line in only three of his last eight starts and just once in his last six.
The Rangers are managing a recurring hip/glute issue, and he has not worked beyond five innings since June 30. The Angels have also scored nine earned runs against him in nine innings this season.
At nearly even money, five competitive innings are enough for me.
Walbert UrenaUNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs-155
WActual 0
Urena has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts and owns a 2.49 ERA at Angel Stadium. His changeup and sweeper have limited both sides of the plate, while Texas has scored only eight runs through the first three games of this series and continues to waste its limited opportunities. Urena has surrendered one earned run across nine innings against the Rangers this season, and his managed workload also reduces the time available for a fourth run to cross.
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