Yankees at Rays
O/U 6.5 · RL Rays -1.5 · Tropicana Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -134
- Published odds
- -134
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 0-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 10 moves| Market | Opened Oct 2 5:00 AM | Close Oct 3 6:15 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Rays -1.5 (+160) | Rays -1.5 (+155) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (+100) | 7 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Rays -130 | Rays -140 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 2 5:00 AM | Rays -1.5 (+160) | 7 (+100) | Rays -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Oct 3 5:00 AM | Rays -1.5 (+165) | 7 (-110) | Rays -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Oct 3 10:17 AM | Rays -1.5 (+165) | 7 (-105) | Rays -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Oct 3 10:45 AM | Rays -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-105) | Rays -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Oct 3 2:30 PM | Rays -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-105) | Rays -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Oct 3 3:00 PM | Rays -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-105) | Rays -130 · Yankees +110 |
| Oct 3 4:43 PM | Rays -1.5 (+160) | 7 (-105) | Rays -140 · Yankees +115 |
| Oct 3 5:30 PM | Rays -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-105) | Rays -140 · Yankees +115 |
| Oct 3 5:45 PM | Rays -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-110) | Rays -140 · Yankees +115 |
| Oct 3 6:00 PM | Rays -1.5 (+165) | 7 (-110) | Rays -140 · Yankees +115 |
| CLOSEOct 3 6:15 PM | Rays -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-110) | Rays -140 · Yankees +115 |
The read
October baseball returns under the Tropicana Field roof, as the AL's top seed opens a best-of-five against the Wild Card Yankees with Drew Rasmussen and Gerrit Cole on the mound. My read starts with that matchup and mostly ends there.
Rasmussen allows a 5.9% barrel rate and a 33.8% hard-hit rate, and has held left-handed hitters to a .568 OPS over 365 at-bats. That matters against a Yankees order that runs eight lefties deep. The last time Rasmussen saw this lineup, the line was 6.2 innings, one hit and 11 strikeouts on a career-high 114 pitches. Cole's profile points the other way: a 0.59 GO/AO, a 44.6% hard-hit rate, and 15 homers allowed to lefties in 291 at-bats. Cole also throws the four-seamer 49.6% of the time, and Junior Caminero carries a .391 xwOBA against that pitch.
The second piece is the back half of the game. Rasmussen has averaged about 6.1 innings over his last five starts against roughly 5.2 for Cole. Cole topped out at 105 pitches this season, his first year back from Tommy John surgery. That likely leaves Boone covering more outs than Cash. Cash can lean on Cam Booser (1.98 ERA) and other lefties against a lineup where Luis Garcia Jr. drops to a .653 OPS versus left-handers. Bryan Baker (41 saves, 1.44 ERA) waits at the end, with rested starters available for length. Boone's left-handed depth is thinner, and Brent Headrick has issued 6 walks over the last 30 days.
The best case against this is real. Rasmussen's opponents carry a .243 wOBA against a .271 xwOBA, so the results are running ahead of the contact. Ben Rice and Garcia are exactly the left-handed power that can flip a low-scoring game with one swing. The Yankees also scored 18 runs in two Wild Card games, while Tampa Bay's relievers haven't pitched in a game since September 27. I'm taking the Rays anyway. Even after regression, Rasmussen's 3.06 xERA sits well ahead of Cole's 3.78. David Bednar has been sharp, but the Yankees need a late lead for that to matter, and getting one means beating Rasmussen first. A 55-26 home club with the better starter and the deeper pen at -134 is a spot I'll put money on.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
COOLING OFF
Luis Garcia Jr.: .276 OPS in Last 15 Days
.276Luis Garcia Jr. has a .276 OPS over the last 15 days, in 35 at-bats, against an .831 season mark. That is a deep slump in a small window, and a full season at .831 says he is a much better hitter than this. Slumps like this tend to snap back. For his props at Tampa Bay, weigh the season number over the cold two weeks.
Spencer Jones: .472 OPS in Last 15 Days
.472Spencer Jones has a .472 OPS over the last 15 days in 42 at-bats, against .742 for the season. A .742 baseline is a solid hitter in a dip, and 42 at-bats is a small slice. Expect it to drift back up. At Tampa Bay, lean on the season number.
STREAK
NYY games have gone OVER 6 straight
O6Yankees games have produced 10.3 runs a night during this six-game over streak, against totals that averaged 6.5. Tonight's total sits at 7, a small move by the books and far below what these games have been producing. Six games is a short sample, and scoring that high usually cools. For New York at Tampa Bay, decide whether 7 has caught up to how these teams are hitting or still sits low.
TEAM RECORD
Rays 8-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 8 starts
8-0Every time Rasmussen has pitched over his last 8 starts, Tampa Bay has won. Eight games is a short run, and the sheet has no scores or innings, so the lineup and bullpen own part of it. Perfect streaks break eventually. At home against the Yankees tonight, it tells you Tampa has played well behind him lately, and the price still has to justify backing that.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 3, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKDREW RASMUSSENPITCHER WALKS UNDER 1.5
I'm taking Rasmussen under 1.5 walks at -144, which means I need him to issue one walk or none tonight.
Command is the backbone of his whole season. He walked 32 batters across 30 starts and 172 innings, so his normal outing sits right at one free pass. He works ahead. The AP account of his last start described him attacking the Yankees with first-pitch strikes all night, and that approach has held for six months. Livensparger behind the plate calls walks right at league norm, so the zone shouldn't push this either way. The October setting also helps me. Cash has a fully rested pen with Baker, Kelly, Booser and Wells all available, plus starters waiting for length. If Rasmussen starts missing, he won't be allowed to keep issuing walks into the sixth inning. A shorter leash means fewer batters faced, and fewer batters faced protects an under.
The strongest case against this comes from the last meeting. He walked three Yankees on September 22, and the last of those, a full count to Jazz Chisholm Jr., ended his night. This lineup takes pitches. Ben Rice drew 86 walks this year, Trent Grisham 62, Chisholm 57, and Austin Wells walks often for a hitter with his average. His last three starts have run a bit wilder than his season norm, and ten days between outings can leave a pitcher's feel slightly off early. Even so, a pitcher whose identity is throwing strikes, with a manager ready to pull him at the first sign of trouble, is the side I want at this price.
- GARY'S PICKDREW RASMUSSENPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 3.5
Rasmussen over 3.5 hits allowed at -120. I need four hits to land against him, which is roughly what an ordinary start from him looks like.
He allowed 125 hits across 30 starts this year, so this line sits below his own baseline. In September he gave up eight hits to Houston, four to the Athletics, and four to San Diego in late August. Those were all good starts, and he still cleared this number in each of them. The contact against him has also been finding gloves more often than its quality would predict, and a lineup carrying this much left-handed power is the kind that can close that gap. Lefties hit him slightly better than righties this season, and New York starts eight of them tonight. The Yankees arrive warm after scoring 18 runs over two Wild Card games, with Rice, Luis Garcia Jr. and George Lombard Jr. all hitting the ball hard in that series. The bottom of the order puts plenty of balls in play.
The case against this is clear. On September 22 he held this same club to one hit over 6.2 innings with 11 strikeouts, and the Yankees strike out a lot as a group. Tropicana Field suppresses offense. Cash's pen is fully rested and deep, so Rasmussen could be lifted before the order turns over a third time, which would cut into how many chances the Yankees get. I'm on the over anyway. A line set below his normal hit total, against a lineup that has been squaring up the ball, is worth the small premium.
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