MLB · Sun, Sep 20 · 4:10 PM

Yankees at Diamondbacks

O/U 12.5 · RL Diamondbacks -3.5 · Chase Field

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Diamondbacks· +100

The series comes down to the finale at Chase Field, with Will Warren facing Corbin Burnes under the closed roof. I’m taking the Yankees at even money because Warren’s demonstrated workload and New York’s production against right-handed pitching give me the stronger combination at this price. Warren’s last five starts produced a 1.95 ERA across 27⅔ innings, with 30 strikeouts and nine walks. Burnes has completed just two starts since returning, progressing from 57 pitches to 75. My estimate is that Warren supplies more outs today, reducing the innings New York must cover with relief pitching. That is a meaningful advantage, although Burnes’s workload today remains unconfirmed. The offensive support comes from players actually in this order. Ben Rice has a .940 OPS against right-handers across 356 at-bats, while Luis García Jr. has an .888 OPS across 417. Those samples give New York a credible offensive foundation against a right-handed starter. They do not establish a specific weakness against Burnes’s arsenal, and his two-start platoon numbers deserve little weight. I’m backing the combination of those established batting results and Warren’s recent pitching. At +100, my judgment is that New York’s chance of winning is modestly better than the price requires. Arizona’s strongest answer is its bullpen, supported by Gabriel Moreno’s .905 OPS against right-handed pitching. Brandyn Garcia has allowed no earned runs in 11⅔ innings over the last 30 days, and Jonathan Loáisiga has allowed one in 10⅔. That makes an Arizona win entirely credible even without a long Burnes outing. Individual relief availability remains unknown for both clubs; David Bednar’s three full days without an appearance do not establish clearance. I still favor New York because an earlier Burnes exit would require Arizona to cover more outs beyond its strongest relief options. The Yankees’ starting-workload evidence and current lineup production outweigh that bullpen counterargument for me, narrowly enough to keep confidence measured.

The offensive support comes from players actually in this order. Ben Rice has a .940 OPS against right-handers across 356 at-bats, while Luis García Jr. has an .888 OPS across 417. Those samples give New York a credible offensive foundation against a right-handed starter. They do not establish a specific weakness against Burnes’s arsenal, and his two-start platoon numbers deserve little weight. I’m backing the combination of those established batting results and Warren’s recent pitching. At +100, my judgment is that New York’s chance of winning is modestly better than the price requires.

Arizona’s strongest answer is its bullpen, supported by Gabriel Moreno’s .905 OPS against right-handed pitching. Brandyn Garcia has allowed no earned runs in 11⅔ innings over the last 30 days, and Jonathan Loáisiga has allowed one in 10⅔. That makes an Arizona win entirely credible even without a long Burnes outing. Individual relief availability remains unknown for both clubs; David Bednar’s three full days without an appearance do not establish clearance. I still favor New York because an earlier Burnes exit would require Arizona to cover more outs beyond its strongest relief options. The Yankees’ starting-workload evidence and current lineup production outweigh that bullpen counterargument for me, narrowly enough to keep confidence measured.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees ML +100
Published odds: +100
Result: Lost
Final score: 4-8

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 20 moves

Market	Opened Sep 19 11:14 PM	Close Sep 20 3:52 PM	Move
SPREAD	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180)	Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)	Price
TOTAL	8.5 (-105)	8 (-115)	−½
MONEYLINE	Diamondbacks -105	Diamondbacks -125	−20

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENSep 19 11:14 PM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180)	8.5 (-105)	Diamondbacks -105 · Yankees -115
Sep 20 7:15 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170)	8.5 (-105)	Diamondbacks -105 · Yankees -115
Sep 20 8:19 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180)	8.5 (-105)	Diamondbacks -105 · Yankees -115
Sep 20 10:30 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8.5 (-105)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 10:40 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190)	8.5 (-105)	Diamondbacks -115 · Yankees -105
Sep 20 10:50 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 10:59 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205)	8 (-110)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 11:13 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8 (-110)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 11:20 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205)	8 (-110)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 11:23 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8 (-110)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 11:39 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 11:55 AM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 12:10 PM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 12:20 PM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 12:40 PM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 12:55 PM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8 (-110)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 1:15 PM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 1:50 PM	Diamondbacks -1.5 (+160)	8 (-110)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 2:12 PM	Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205)	8 (-110)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
Sep 20 3:10 PM	Diamondbacks -1.5 (+160)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -120 · Yankees +100
CLOSESep 20 3:52 PM	Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)	8 (-115)	Diamondbacks -125 · Yankees +105

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Will Warren: 0.96 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.96
Will Warren has allowed two earned runs with 21 strikeouts in 18.2 innings across his last three starts, posting a 0.96 ERA. That is 2.93 runs below his 3.89 season ERA entering NYY @ ARI.

PLATOON EDGE

Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
.750
Lars Nootbaar has a .750 OPS versus right-handed pitching in 223 AB, compared with .450 versus left-handed pitching in 40 AB. He leads off against RHP Will Warren in New York at Arizona.

HEAT CHECK

Nolan Arenado: 1.186 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.186
Nolan Arenado has a 1.186 OPS over the last 15 days in 45 AB, 0.414 above his .772 season mark. The Yankees visit Arizona tonight.

HR THREAT

Ben Rice
+600
Gary's Take I’m taking Ben Rice over 0.5 home runs at +600. The price requires a hit rate of only 14.3%, while Rice has homered in four of his last 15 games and has 39 in 148 games this season.

FIRST INNING

ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10
ARI scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Will Warren: 2.89 ERA, .229 opponent AVG across 28.0 IP, 5 HR.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
WILL WARRENPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5
MLBNew York Yankees· -150
LOST · ACTUAL 4
I’m taking Will Warren under 2.5 earned runs at -150. He has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, including all five of his most recent outings. His last three produced only two earned runs across 18⅔ innings, with 21 strikeouts against five walks. Arizona also owns a modest .232 average and .687 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. The strongest concern is Warren’s 1.36 WHIP and the quality in Arizona’s middle order. Gabriel Moreno has a .905 OPS against right-handers, while Nolan Arenado is 18-for-46 with five homers over his last 15 games. Warren has also allowed a 44.4% hard-hit rate, so traffic can turn into a crooked inning. Even with that risk, his sustained run prevention and Arizona’s season-long results against righties support paying the -150.
Will Warren
Pitcher Earned Runs under 2.5
-150 · LOST · ACTUAL 4
New York Yankees
I’m taking Will Warren under 2.5 earned runs at -150. He has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, including all five of his most recent outings. His last three produced only two earned runs across 18⅔ innings, with 21 strikeouts against five walks. Arizona also owns a modest .232 average and .687 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
The strongest concern is Warren’s 1.36 WHIP and the quality in Arizona’s middle order. Gabriel Moreno has a .905 OPS against right-handers, while Nolan Arenado is 18-for-46 with five homers over his last 15 games. Warren has also allowed a 44.4% hard-hit rate, so traffic can turn into a crooked inning. Even with that risk, his sustained run prevention and Arizona’s season-long results against righties support paying the -150.
THE LONG SHOT
BEN RICEHR OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Yankees· +600
LOST · ACTUAL 0
I’m taking Ben Rice over 0.5 home runs at +600. The price requires a hit rate of only 14.3%, while Rice has homered in four of his last 15 games and has 39 in 148 games this season. He has done most of his damage in this handedness matchup, producing 28 homers and a .940 OPS across 356 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Batting leadoff also gives him the best chance in this order to receive an additional plate appearance. The strongest counterargument is that Corbin Burnes’s two-start sample is too small to establish that he is currently homer-prone. His curveball has generated a 40% whiff rate with a .178 xwOBA, and Arizona can bring left-hander Brandyn Garcia into Rice’s later plate appearances. A home-run prop is inherently volatile, but Rice’s established power against righties makes +600 large enough for me to accept that variance.
Ben Rice
HR over 0.5
+600 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
New York Yankees
I’m taking Ben Rice over 0.5 home runs at +600. The price requires a hit rate of only 14.3%, while Rice has homered in four of his last 15 games and has 39 in 148 games this season. He has done most of his damage in this handedness matchup, producing 28 homers and a .940 OPS across 356 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Batting leadoff also gives him the best chance in this order to receive an additional plate appearance.
The strongest counterargument is that Corbin Burnes’s two-start sample is too small to establish that he is currently homer-prone. His curveball has generated a 40% whiff rate with a .178 xwOBA, and Arizona can bring left-hander Brandyn Garcia into Rice’s later plate appearances. A home-run prop is inherently volatile, but Rice’s established power against righties makes +600 large enough for me to accept that variance.

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