Orioles at Yankees
O/U 6.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
Orioles MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Orioles ML +102
- Published odds
- +102
- Result
- Game identity unresolved
- Final score
- Not available
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
Orioles MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Orioles ML -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Game identity unresolved
- Final score
- Not available
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 15 moves| Market | Opened Sep 25 5:00 AM | Close Sep 25 4:01 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Orioles +1.5 (-206) | Orioles -1.5 (+155) | Price |
| TOTAL | 6.5 (-115) | 7 (-105) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Orioles +119 | Orioles -113 | −232 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 25 5:00 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-206) | 6.5 (-115) | Orioles +119 · Yankees -143 |
| Sep 25 9:00 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-206) | 6.5 (-122) | Orioles +113 · Yankees -136 |
| Sep 25 10:41 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-219) | 6.5 (-126) | Orioles +104 · Yankees -125 |
| Sep 25 11:06 AM | Orioles +1.5 (-219) | 6.5 (-126) | Orioles +102 · Yankees -123 |
| Sep 25 12:00 PM | Orioles +1.5 (-219) | 6.5 (-120) | Orioles +108 · Yankees -130 |
| Sep 25 12:35 PM | Orioles +1.5 (-219) | 6.5 (-120) | Orioles +104 · Yankees -125 |
| Sep 25 12:50 PM | Orioles +1.5 (-219) | 6.5 (-119) | Orioles +105 · Yankees -126 |
| Sep 25 1:22 PM | Orioles +1.5 (-220) | 6.5 (-119) | Orioles +102 · Yankees -123 |
| Sep 25 1:43 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+178) | 6.5 (-119) | Orioles -101 · Yankees -120 |
| Sep 25 2:40 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+178) | 6.5 (-119) | Orioles -101 · Yankees -119 |
| Sep 25 3:10 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+168) | 6.5 (-120) | Orioles -106 · Yankees -113 |
| Sep 25 3:35 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+163) | 7 (-102) | Orioles -109 · Yankees -111 |
| Sep 25 3:40 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+162) | 7 (-107) | Orioles -109 · Yankees -111 |
| Sep 25 3:50 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+154) | 7 (-105) | Orioles -114 · Yankees -106 |
| Sep 25 3:55 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+159) | 7 (-105) | Orioles -112 · Yankees -108 |
| CLOSESep 25 4:01 PM | Orioles -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-105) | Orioles -113 · Yankees -106 |
The read: Orioles ML
A nor'easter pushed this series into a Friday doubleheader in the Bronx. Game 1 matches Trevor Rogers against a Yankees club that is already locked into the top Wild Card seed and is treating this afternoon like a tune-up. I think this game is decided by which side has to cover more innings, and it isn't close. Rogers has averaged 6.6 innings per start lately, with 39 strikeouts against 3 walks over his last five. The market is pricing his 4.07 ERA, not the 3.54 xERA underneath it, so Baltimore isn't being asked to pay for a fragile number. Brendan Beck was recalled today with 7.2 big-league innings to his name. His Triple-A 2.93 ERA says he belongs, but it doesn't say he will pitch deep.
That puts the middle of this game on a Yankees bullpen that Boone said he'd be "very selective" with ahead of October. Michael Fulmer threw 28 pitches yesterday, and Tim Hill has worked two straight days. The two arms who covered four innings yesterday were optioned today, and Game 2 still needs covering later tonight. Baltimore's bullpen had off days on both sides of a light doubleheader. It posted a 2.70 ERA over the recent tracked window, compared with 3.95 for New York. With Brandon Young announced for Game 2, the Orioles have nothing to save. On top of that, the Yankees are resting Wells, Bellinger, Chisholm and McMahon. Pete Alonso, chasing the home run title with a .919 OPS against right-handers, gets a right-handed spot starter and whatever relievers follow him.
The best argument against me is real. Rogers allows a .756 OPS and 18 homers to right-handed hitters. New York stacks seven of them, with Paul Goldschmidt and his .990 OPS against lefties leading off. Baltimore has scored just 2.4 runs a game over its last five. But about 75% of the at-bats against Rogers this season have already come from righties, so his season line already carries that weakness. Behind Goldschmidt and Rice, the rest of this Yankees lineup slugs between .301 and .426. At essentially even money, I'll take the steadier starter and the rested bullpen over a team that is using this game to get ready for October.
The read: Orioles ML
A storm-shuffled doubleheader brings the nightcap to the Bronx. Brandon Young takes the ball for an eliminated Orioles club against a clinched Yankees team with one eye on Tuesday's Wild Card opener. I'm betting on the late innings, and that points to the Baltimore bullpen. The Orioles were off Thursday, so every reliever came into today rested. Over the last 14 days their pen has a 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, against New York's 3.95 and 1.45. Over the last 30 days, Walker has a 0.00 ERA in 11.1 innings and Wolfram has 15 strikeouts in 10.2. Albernaz says his arms "just want to pitch whenever they can pitch." Pete Alonso leads the AL in RBI, is chasing the home run title, and has a .919 OPS with 32 homers against right-handers.
The Yankees are playing their third game in about 27 hours. Fulmer threw 28 pitches Thursday. Hill has worked two straight days, and after two straight days he has pitched again just 1 of 13 times. Boone says he is "prioritizing how we want to use guys in the pen," naming Bednar, Blackburn and Headrick ahead of the Wild Card. Whatever relief Game 1 needed came out of that same thin group. The Yankees are expected to go with Will Warren as a bulk arm, and he has gone 4.1 innings or fewer in three of his last seven starts. That leaves a lot of innings to a pen that is thin, and at its top, deliberately held back.
The case against me is real. Young has allowed 13 homers over his last 10 starts. He leans fly-ball with a 0.86 GO/AO and pitches into the short porch against Ben Rice, who has a .956 OPS and 30 homers off righties. Warren has been sharper lately, with a 2.57 ERA over his last five starts. Young's 3.62 ERA against a 4.32 xERA is a fragile number, but at a pick'em I'm not paying for it. He just threw six innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts against the Brewers, and he has been better on the road (3.27 ERA). At a coin-flip price, I'll take the team with the fresher pen and no reason to hold anything back.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Yankees are 8-2 vs Orioles this season
8-2The Yankees have won eight of ten against Baltimore this season, and the last meeting was a 6-1 game. The sheet gives no starters or ballparks for those games, so there is no way to pin the edge on one arm or one venue. Ten games is a fair sample for a season series, but tonight's starters carry more weight. Use the record as a check on how New York has handled this lineup, then price the pitching.
STREAK
BAL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
U4Baltimore games have averaged 5.5 combined runs over four straight unders, against totals around 6.8. Tonight's number at Yankee Stadium is 6.5, only slightly lower. Four games is a small sample, and the sheet gives no pitcher or lineup reason for the quiet scoring. The gap between 5.5 and 6.5 is the case for the under, and the short sample is the reason to keep it modest.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 25, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKCHRISTIAN ENCARNACION-STRANDH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Christian Encarnacion-Strand over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -172. He only needs to touch one of the three, and he bats fifth right behind Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo. Henderson has been on base constantly over the past two weeks, so traffic should be there when Encarnacion-Strand comes up.
The arm matters here. Brendan Beck was recalled this morning for a spot start and has 7.2 big-league innings behind him. The Yankees are lining up for October and have no reason to push him deep, so Encarnacion-Strand should get his early looks at a spot starter and his late ones at the back of the New York bullpen. That group lost two arms to options today, has Game 2 still to cover tonight, and Boone said he'd be very selective with his leverage relievers. Encarnacion-Strand has been hitting well into late September too. He homered and drove in three in the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader, went 3 for 4 with a homer and two doubles at Citi Field last week, and he has put the ball in play against everything in front of him. Yankee Stadium plays short, and a wind blowing across the park at 20 mph adds a little carry.
The case against this is real. His damage this year has come against lefties, and against right-handers he sits at a .733 OPS, so today is his weaker side. Beck comes up through the system with a reputation as a strike thrower who lives on command, and his Triple-A work backs that up. Baltimore has also scored just 2.4 runs a game over its last five, which cuts into the run and RBI paths. -172 is a real price. I still like a middle-of-the-order bat with three ways to cash against a spot starter and a thinned-out pen.
- GARY'S PICKDYLAN BEAVERSWALKS UNDER 0.5
I'm taking Dylan Beavers under 0.5 walks at -165. He leads off, so he gets the extra plate appearance, and I've factored that in. Even with it, a walk isn't a regular part of his game. He has 33 walks in 352 plate appearances this season. He's also mired in a slump, 2 for 20 over the past week with strikeouts piling up, and a leadoff hitter in that kind of rut tends to go up hacking to get something going instead of working counts.
The arm he sees first matters too. Beck's calling card coming through the Yankees system is command: a low-90s fastball without much life, a slider as his best pitch, and control that scouts rate ahead of any single offering. A pitcher like that attacks the zone and makes hitters earn it. Beavers is the kind of hitter he wants to challenge, a left-handed bat with a .688 OPS against right-handers and modest power. Beck has little to gain by pitching around him at the top of the order.
The case against me is Beck's own big-league line. He has walked 5 in 7.2 major league innings, so the command that shows up in Triple-A hasn't fully carried over in his short look in New York. If he gets pulled early, Beavers could see relievers like Yerry De los Santos, who has 8 walks in 20 innings, and those later at-bats bring more chances for a free pass. Beavers also drew walks in two of his last six games. The price makes me pay for his lineup spot, but a slumping hitter who rarely walks, facing a strike thrower, fits the under.
- GARY'S PICKCHRISTIAN ENCARNACION-STRANDH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Christian Encarnacion-Strand over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -169 in the nightcap. One hit, one run or one RBI cashes it, and he has been one of Baltimore's steadiest bats in September. He owns an .899 OPS for the month and a 1.012 OPS over his last 15 days. In Wednesday's second game he went 2 for 3 with a homer and three RBIs, and in the opener he singled and scored. He hits in the heart of the order, fifth or sixth all year, so he comes up with men on base behind Alonso, Henderson and Mayo, and he gets a run scored chance every time he reaches with the bottom of the lineup behind him.
The game context helps. The Yankees have not named a starter for Game 2, and the expected plan is Will Warren as a bulk arm handing off to a pen that has already been worked today. De los Santos threw 43 pitches in Game 1, Blackburn threw 20, Fulmer threw 28 on Thursday, and Hill has gone two straight days. Boone is protecting Bednar, Blackburn and Headrick for Tuesday. Encarnacion-Strand should get his last two trips against the back of that staff.
The case against me: his power plays mostly against lefties. Against righties this year he has a .733 OPS with four homers in 129 plate appearances, and Warren has been sharp lately with a 2.57 ERA over his last five starts. His expected contact numbers run a little below his actual line, so some of his season has been kind to him. The other risk is the schedule. This is the second game of a doubleheader for an eliminated club, and a rest day for a regular is always possible. At -169 I'm paying a real price, but a player hitting in the middle of the order with this many ways to cash is worth it.
- GARY'S PICKSPENCER JONESH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -144. Jones is a left-handed bat in Yankee Stadium, with the 314-foot porch in right. He has shown he can reach it, with 11 homers this year, and he runs well enough to create a run on his own. He has 10 steals, and Baltimore's catchers have thrown out very few runners this season. His quality of contact is real. His expected numbers sit right on his actual .245 average and .435 slugging, so the results he has are backed by how hard he hits the ball. He has hit sixth most of the year and in the fifth spot often, so there is a real middle of the order behind him to drive him in.
This is also a young player the Yankees want to see before October, which makes him a good bet to get the full nightcap while veterans rest. Brandon Young has issued ten walks over his last three starts, and more traffic around Jones means more RBI and run chances even on nights he doesn't square one up.
The case against me is clear. Tonight Jones faces a right-hander, and against righties he has a .649 OPS over 226 plate appearances, well below the huge numbers he posts against lefties. His last week has been cold, 3 for 19 with a lot of strikeouts, and his strikeout rate means he can take an 0 for 4 with nothing to show for it. Baltimore's bullpen is also rested and has been very good lately, so his late at-bats may come against Walker, Cano or Garcia. At -144 this is a smaller play than the Encarnacion-Strand card, backed by the park, his legs and a lineup that should give him more than one chance to score or drive one in.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day