Sports picks for Friday, September 25, 2026

CHI: 212.5 rushing yards per game to PHI's 112.5

Chicago has run for 212.5 yards a game over 2 games, well above its 144.5 last season. Philadelphia is at 112.5, close to its 116.9 last season. Chicago's number will likely come down but the Bears have shown they can control a game on the ground. At home, expect Chicago to lean on the run and try to shorten the game, which favors unders if Philadelphia's offense can't break it open.

SF: 6.85 yards per play to ARI's 4.35

ARI is at 4.35 yards per play over 2 games; SF is at 6.85 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ARI was at 5.18 over 17 games and SF at 5.49 over 17 games. ARI had no play of 20+ yards in its last game. SF had 5 plays of 20+ yards in its last game, led by 40-yard pass (Brock Purdy Pass Complete for 40 Yds to George Kittle); 27-yard pass (Brock Purdy Pass Complete for 27 Yds to Mike Evans); 26-yard pass (Brock Purdy Pass Complete for 26 Yds to George Kittle).

BUF: 7.2 yards per play to LAC's 5.15

Buffalo gains 7.2 yards every snap to the Chargers' 5.15, which means the Bills are hitting chunks while LAC grinds. The last game shows it: Buffalo had 7 plays of 20-plus, including Josh Allen's 43-yard touchdown to Joshua Palmer and a 35-yard James Cook run, while LAC had 1, a 53-yard Herbert strike to Tre' Harris. LAC's 5.15 matches last season's 5.19, so that's who they are; Buffalo's number is two games and should cool toward last season's 5.94.

MIN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to TB's 0%

MIN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; TB is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season MIN was at 62.5% over 17 games and TB at 44.8% over 17 games.

CIN: 44.8% third-down conversion rate to PIT's 20%

Cincinnati has moved the chains on almost half its third downs through 2 games, while Pittsburgh has converted only one in five. Last season Cincinnati sat at 43.4%, so its number looks like who it is. Pittsburgh was at 40% last season, and a drop that steep over 2 games points to a slow start more than a new identity. At home, expect Pittsburgh's rate to climb back toward normal, so be careful pricing this game as if the Steelers can't sustain a drive.

KC: 24 first downs per game to MIA's 13

KC is at 24 first downs per game over 2 games; MIA is at 13 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season KC was at 19.8 over 17 games and MIA at 17.1 over 17 games.

IND: 1 sack taken per game to HOU's 3.5

HOU is at 3.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; IND is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 2.58 over 17 games and IND at 2.07 over 17 games.

KC: 271.5 team passing yards per game to MIA's 183.5

KC is throwing for 271.5 a game to Miami's 183.5. The Dolphins sit right on last season's 180.5, so that looks like who they are, while the Chiefs are well above last season's 214.1. KC's number is the one likely to drift down, which matters more for passing props than for the matchup's direction.

HOU: 285.5 team passing yards per game to IND's 179.5

Houston is throwing for 285.5 a game against Indy's 179.5, a flip from last season, when the Colts out-passed the Texans 227.8 to 218.1. Two games is a small window, and both teams are well off their prior numbers. Expect Houston to cool and Indy to rise, so the passing edge in this divisional game is probably smaller than it looks.

CAR: 35.5 points per game to CLE's 16.5

Carolina is averaging 35.5 points after scoring 18.3 a game last season, almost double, while Cleveland is right on last season's 16.4. The Browns number looks like who they are; the Panthers number is two games and likely to fall back hard. In Cleveland, lean on the Browns' steady baseline and treat Carolina's scoring pace as the part of this matchup most likely to disappoint.

BUF: 38.5 points per game to LAC's 14

LAC is at 14 points per game over 2 games; BUF is at 38.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAC was at 21.6 over 17 games and BUF at 28.3 over 17 games.

CAR: 312.5 team passing yards per game to CLE's 204

Carolina is throwing for 312.5 a game through two weeks, a massive leap from 179.3 last season, while Cleveland sits at 204. A jump that big over two games likely reflects opponents and game flow as much as a new identity, so expect regression. Cleveland's own 204 is up from 165.2, so the Browns aren't a pure run team either. The Panthers passing total is the number most likely to be inflated here.

NYG: 32:03 time of possession per game to TEN's 22:25

The Giants are holding the ball for 32:03 a game while Tennessee has it for just 22:25, down from 29:08 last season. New York is close to last season's 30:58, so that part looks stable; the Titans' drop is two games and likely to recover. If the Giants control the clock at home, expect fewer total possessions, a lean that points toward lower scoring.

HOW: 1.33 turnovers committed per game to RUTG's 3.33

Rutgers is giving the ball away 3.33 times a game through three games, after just 0.92 a game over 12 games last season. Howard sits at 1.33, right in line with its 1.42 from last year. Three games is a small window, and last season's number says Rutgers should clean this up. A Howard defense that gets a couple of extra possessions is the one path to keeping this close, so weigh how much of Rutgers' early sloppiness you expect to carry over.

SEA: 8.5 points allowed per game to WSH's 30.5

Seattle has given up 8.5 points a game over 2 games, while Washington's defense has allowed 30.5. Last season Seattle allowed 17.2 and Washington 26.5, so both numbers have drifted to the extremes and Seattle's figure should rise. Washington's defense was already soft last season, which makes its side of the gap more believable. On the road, Seattle's defense is likely better than average but not this good, so a total built on its 2-game number would be set too low.

CAL: 321.7 team passing yards per game to CLEM's 172.3

Cal is throwing for 321.7 a game while Clemson sits at 172.3, both over three games. Clemson threw for 267.8 a game over 13 games last season, so its current number is a sharp drop that looks more like a slow start than its identity, while Cal is running a bit hotter than its 275.9 from last year. Expect Clemson's passing number to climb back toward last season's level. Cal's air attack is the steadier piece in this matchup.

RUTG: 280.3 team passing yards per game to HOW's 158.3

HOW is at 158.3 team passing yards per game over 3 games; RUTG is at 280.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOW was at 165.3 over 12 games and RUTG at 266.1 over 12 games.

JAX: 75% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 33.3%

Jacksonville has scored on three of every four red-zone trips through 2 games, while New England has cashed only a third of theirs. Last season Jacksonville was at 61.8% and New England at 57.1%, so both have moved far from their norms. Red-zone rates over 2 games rest on a handful of trips and usually settle down. New England's drives may stall less at the goal line than this suggests, which matters more for touchdown props than for the side.

IND: 83.3% red-zone scoring rate to HOU's 44.4%

Indy is finishing 83.3% of red-zone trips to Houston's 44.4%. The Texans are basically where they were last season at 46.3%, so that looks real, while the Colts are well above their 65.2%. Indy should come down some, but Houston settling for field goals is a trend with a full season behind it, which matters for Texans team totals.

CAR: 70% red-zone scoring rate to CLE's 20%

CAR is at 70% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; CLE is at 20% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 53.3% over 17 games and CLE at 52.6% over 17 games.

KC: 32 points per game to MIA's 13

KC is scoring 32 a game and Miami 13, after last season had them nearly level at 21.3 and 20.4. Two games is thin, and both teams should pull back toward those marks. The gap in this game is likely smaller than the early numbers suggest, which is worth weighing against a spread built off the first two weeks.

NYJ: 15 points allowed per game to DET's 35.5

The Jets have allowed 15 points a game, down from 29.6 last season, while Detroit is giving up 35.5, up from 24.3. Both are two-game swings that run against what each defense was last year, so both are likely to move back. Going into Detroit, don't price the Jets defense as elite yet, and don't write off the Lions defense off two bad weeks.

SF: 31 points per game to ARI's 16.5

ARI is at 16.5 points per game over 2 games; SF is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ARI was at 20.9 over 17 games and SF at 25.7 over 17 games.

SF: 10 points allowed per game to ARI's 22.5

ARI is at 22.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; SF is at 10 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ARI was at 28.7 over 17 games and SF at 21.8 over 17 games.

MIN: 12.5 points allowed per game to TB's 28

Minnesota has allowed 12.5 points a game over 2 games, while Tampa Bay has given up 28. Last season Minnesota allowed 19.6 and Tampa Bay 24.2, so both have moved away from their norms. Minnesota's number is likely to rise, and Tampa Bay's may improve some. Playing in Tampa, Minnesota's defense probably keeps an edge, but a total set off this 2-game gap could underestimate the scoring.

CIN: 26.5 points per game to PIT's 11.5

Cincinnati is scoring 26.5 a game, near last season's 24.4, while Pittsburgh has dropped to 11.5 from 23.4. The Bengals look like themselves; the Steelers' number over two games is the outlier and likely to rise. In Pittsburgh, a Steelers team total set off this start could be the soft spot.

Caleb Williams (QB) is doubtful for CHI

Doubtful means Caleb Williams is unlikely to play for Chicago against Philadelphia. The hamstring kept Williams out of Friday's practice entirely, which fits that tag. If the Bears are down to a backup quarterback, their passing props and total deserve a hard second look once the inactive list drops.

ATL: 173 rush yards a game to GB's 48.7

Atlanta is running for 173 yards a game over 3 games while Green Bay is at 48.7, and both numbers sit far from last season, when Atlanta ran for 125.8 and Green Bay for 119.8. Atlanta's ground game can shorten the game and keep the ball away from a Packers offense that has had almost no run game to lean on. Green Bay's 48.7 should climb toward its old level, and Atlanta's 173 will likely cool off. Three games is a real trend, so lean on game flow and rushing props with some caution.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

CHI: 212.5 rush yards a game to PHI's 112.5

Chicago is running for 212.5 yards a game over 2 games, Philadelphia 112.5. Last season the Bears ran for 144.5 and the Eagles 116.9, so Philadelphia is right on its usual number while Chicago has jumped. The Bears ran well last season too, but 212.5 is very high for two games and should cool off. Chicago's run game can control the clock at home, which affects the total and Bears rushing props.

LV: 1 sacks taken a game to NO's 4

New Orleans is taking 4 sacks a game over 2 games, Las Vegas 1. Last season the Raiders took 4 and the Saints 3.06, so the Raiders number is a big turn. The Saints line has been leaky in both seasons, which gives Las Vegas a real chance to get home. Raider protection is the more likely number to slip back. For sack props, New Orleans giving up pressure is the steadier trend.

DAL: 68.2% on third down to BAL's 38.9%

Dallas is converting 68.2% of its third downs over 2 games, Baltimore 38.9%. Last season Dallas was at 41.1% and Baltimore 40.9%, nearly even. Dallas's rate is far too high to hold and should fall back toward its old level. The gap looks big on paper but probably shrinks, so avoid treating Dallas's third-down success as a lasting edge.

MIN: 0.5 turnovers a game to TB's 2.5

Tampa Bay has given the ball away 2.5 times a game over 2 games, while Minnesota is at 0.5. That flips last season, when the Bucs were at 0.94 and the Vikings at 1.76. Turnover rates swing a lot, so Tampa Bay should settle and Minnesota may give some back. Treat this gap as two games of noise before letting it drive a view on the game.

SF: 6.85 yards a snap to ARI's 4.35

The widest gap between these two is yards a snap: ARI averaged 4.35 yards a snap on offense over 2 games; SF averaged 6.85 yards a snap on offense over 2 games this season. Last season ARI was at 5.18 over 17 games and SF at 5.49 over 17 games.

JAX: 0.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5

New England has turned it over 2.5 times a game over 2 games, Jacksonville 0.5. Last season the Patriots were at 0.94 and the Jaguars at 1.06, so this gap comes from two games. Turnovers are noisy and the Patriots should settle back toward their old rate. If New England stays loose with the ball on the road, Jacksonville gets short fields, but this edge is shaky.

SEA: 8.5 points allowed a game to WSH's 30.5

Seattle has allowed 8.5 points a game over 2 games, Washington 30.5. Last season Seattle gave up 17.2 and Washington 26.5, so Seattle's defense was already strong and Washington's already leaky. Seattle's 8.5 is too low to last, but the direction matches last season. That makes Washington's scoring and the total the spots to think about carefully.

CIN: 44.8% on third down to PIT's 20%

Cincinnati is converting 44.8% of its third downs over 2 games, right in line with 43.4% last season. Pittsburgh is at 20% over 2 games after 40% last season, so the Steelers number is the one likely to recover. If the Steelers stay stuck on third down, the Bengals get more drives. Expect Pittsburgh to improve, and weigh that before leaning too hard on Cincinnati's edge.

NYG: 32:03 of possession a game to TEN's 22:25

The Giants have held the ball 32:03 a game over 2 games, Tennessee only 22:25. Last season the Titans were at 29:08 and the Giants at 30:58, so Tennessee's drop is the outlier. Possession follows game script, and two games of trailing can bury a team's number. If the Giants keep controlling the ball at home, Tennessee gets fewer snaps, which matters for Titans player props and the total.

KC: 186 rush yards a game to MIA's 88

Kansas City is running for 186 yards a game over 2 games, against Miami's 88. Last season the Chiefs ran for 106.6 and Miami for 120.2, so both numbers are moving hard off a two-game sample. Kansas City running the ball this well lets them control the clock and keep Miami's offense on the sideline. Expect the Chiefs to cool and Miami to climb, so treat rushing props with caution.

HOU: 285.5 pass yards a game to IND's 179.5

Houston is throwing for 285.5 yards a game over 2 games, Indianapolis for 179.5. Last season it ran the other way, 218.1 for Houston and 227.8 for the Colts. Houston's jump is big for two games and likely settles lower, while Indianapolis should climb. If Houston keeps winning through the air, the Colts have to lean on the run and shorten the game, which affects how you view the total and Colts passing props.

NYJ: 15 points allowed a game to DET's 35.5

The Jets have allowed 15 points a game over 2 games, and Detroit has allowed 35.5. Both numbers flipped from last season, when the Jets gave up 29.6 and Detroit 24.3. Two games can swing this much off opponents alone, so both should drift back toward those older marks. For totals and Jets team points, Detroit's defense is the side most likely to improve, and the Jets defense the one most likely to give some back.

CAR: 312.5 pass yards a game to CLE's 204

Carolina is throwing for 312.5 yards a game over 2 games against Cleveland's 204. Carolina threw for 179.3 last season, so this is a huge jump in a small sample, and Cleveland's own 204 is up from 165.2. Carolina's number is the one more likely to come back down. If Carolina keeps attacking through the air, Cleveland has to win on the ground and keep that passing game off the field, so passing props for Carolina carry real two-game risk.

BUF: 0 turnovers a game to LAC's 2.5

The Chargers have given the ball away 2.5 times a game over 2 games, and Buffalo has not turned it over once. Last season the two were close, 1.24 for the Chargers and 1.12 for the Bills, so two games is doing most of the work here. Turnovers swing hard from week to week, and the Chargers should move back toward their old rate. For this game, the risk is a Chargers team that has to protect the ball on the road, and that is a spot to size carefully rather than assume a repeat.

CHI: 1.5 takeaways per game to PHI's 0

Philadelphia has not forced a turnover in two games, while Chicago has 1.5 a game. Zero over two games is more bad luck than identity, and takeaway rates bounce around week to week. Philadelphia's number should come up. Do not lean on this gap when sizing up the game.

LV: 2.5 takeaways per game to NO's 1

Las Vegas is taking the ball away 2.5 times a game, and New Orleans once. Turnover rates over two games swing on tipped balls and fumble bounces, so do not bank on Las Vegas keeping this pace. The better bet is that it regresses toward the league norm. Price Las Vegas on how its defense plays snap to snap, not on extra possessions.

MIN: 2 takeaways per game to TB's 0.5

Minnesota is forcing two turnovers a game and Tampa Bay only one every other game. Takeaways are the noisiest defensive stat, and two games tells you little about what comes next. Both numbers should drift toward the middle. If you like Minnesota here, lean on why they are winning snaps, not on the turnovers repeating.

SEA: 2 takeaways per game to WSH's 0

SEA is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

SF: 20% red-zone scoring allowed to ARI's 62.5%

San Francisco has allowed a score on one in five red-zone trips, and Arizona has let opponents cash in on 62.5% of theirs. Two games is a tiny red-zone sample, often only a handful of trips, so both numbers can swing hard in one afternoon. Expect San Francisco's figure to rise toward normal. For this game, the useful idea is that Arizona's offense may settle for field goals near the goal line, which affects touchdown props and totals more than the side.

CAR: 3 takeaways per game to CLE's 0.5

Carolina has forced 3 takeaways a game over 2 games, while Cleveland has 0.5. Takeaways are the least stable defensive stat, and two games is a tiny sample, so expect Carolina's rate to fall. It still means their defense has been creating extra possessions. For this game, turnovers are a coin-flip factor more than a trend to lean on.

ATL: 47.7 rushing yards allowed per game to GB's 138.7

Atlanta has held opponents to 47.7 rushing yards a game over 3 games, while Green Bay has given up 138.7 on the ground. The sheet does not say who Atlanta faced, so some of that number could come from opponents who threw more than they ran. Three games is a real start and still a small sample. The Falcons run into this game with the gap in their favor, so Atlanta's ground game and time of possession are the first things to check before you look at the total.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

CAL: 321.7 pass yards a game to CLEM's 172.3

Cal is throwing for almost twice what Clemson is through 3 games, 321.7 yards a game against 172.3. Clemson is the outlier: it threw for 267.8 a game last season, so a drop this steep over 3 games looks more like a slow start than a new identity. Cal's 275.9 last season says its passing game is real and running hot. Expect Clemson's number to climb, so the gap on the field is probably smaller than 3 games suggest.

HOW: 1.33 turnovers a game to RUTG's 3.33

Rutgers is giving the ball away 3.33 times a game through 3 games, while Howard sits at 1.33. Last season Rutgers was at 0.92 over 12 games, so this is a short-sample spike from a team that usually protects the ball. Howard's 1.42 last season matches what it is doing now. Turnover rates swing hard over 3 games and tend to drift back, so bet Rutgers expecting cleaner play, with extra Howard possessions as the risk if the sloppiness lasts.

CLEM: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to CAL's 28.6%

Clemson has converted every fourth down it has tried through three games, while Cal is at 28.6% over the same stretch. Last season they were close, Clemson at 55.6% and Cal at 52.2% over 13 games. Both numbers are built on a handful of attempts and should drift back toward last year. Neither side's early fourth-down record says much about how a key short-yardage snap in this game will go.

NYJ: 131.5 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 310.5

The Jets have allowed 131.5 passing yards a game over 2 games, while Detroit has given up 310.5. The sheet does not say who either team faced, so the Jets' number could reflect weak passing offenses or opponents who chose to run. Detroit's number is the bigger worry over two games. The Jets' passing game gets a soft matchup, and that bears on their quarterback's yardage in this spot.

NYJ: 4 yards per play allowed to DET's 6

The Jets have allowed 4 yards per play over 2 games, and Detroit has allowed 6. Yards per play is the cleanest single measure of a defense, and a 2-yard gap is large, even though two games is a small sample. It fits with the Jets being tight against both run and pass so far. The Jets' offense is facing the leakier unit, and that works in their favor even on the road.

NYJ: 23.8% third downs allowed to DET's 58.6%

NYJ is at 23.8% third downs allowed over 2 games; DET is at 58.6% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

KC: 4.45 yards per play allowed to MIA's 6.05

Kansas City has allowed 4.45 yards per play over 2 games, and Miami has allowed 6.05. That is a big gap in how easily each defense gets moved on, though two games and unnamed opponents keep it from being a settled trait. Kansas City's offense is facing the defense that has given up more per snap. Chunk plays and total yardage for the Chiefs are where this shows up.

KC: 29.2% third downs allowed to MIA's 50%

Kansas City has let opponents convert 29.2% of third downs over 2 games, and Miami has allowed 50%. Third-down rates bounce around over small samples, so Kansas City's number will probably climb. Miami letting half of third downs through means Chiefs drives should stay alive longer. That points to Kansas City holding the ball, which shapes the time of possession and total picture.

TEN: 43.3% third downs allowed to NYG's 65%

Tennessee has allowed 43.3% of third downs over 2 games, and the Giants have allowed 65%. Neither is good, and the Giants' rate is very high, though two games of third downs is a small sample and should settle toward normal. Tennessee's offense should get chances to extend drives. That favors sustained Titans possessions and makes their scoring the side worth checking.

PIT: 154.5 passing yards allowed per game to CIN's 253.5

Pittsburgh has allowed 154.5 passing yards a game over 2 games, while Cincinnati has allowed 253.5. The sheet does not say which quarterbacks either faced, so Pittsburgh's number may be helped by schedule. The Bengals' pass defense looks softer early. At home, Pittsburgh's passing game has the better matchup, and that bears on their quarterback's yardage.

SEA: 124.5 passing yards allowed per game to WSH's 224

Seattle has allowed 124.5 passing yards a game over 2 games, and Washington has allowed 224. Low passing yards can come from facing weak passers or opponents playing from ahead, and the sheet does not say which. Two games is a small sample, so Seattle's number will likely rise some. Seattle's passing game faces the more generous defense in this matchup.

SEA: 3.65 yards per play allowed to WSH's 6.05

Seattle has allowed 3.65 yards per play over 2 games, while Washington has allowed 6.05. That is an elite early number, and together with the low passing yards it suggests the unit is holding up snap to snap, though two games is still small. Washington's number points to a defense that gets moved on. Seattle's offense has the easier matchup, and a lower-scoring game from Washington's side fits what both defenses have shown so far.

SEA: 28.6% third downs allowed to WSH's 52%

Seattle's defense has let opponents convert fewer than three in ten third downs, while Washington's has given up more than half. That is two games each, so opponent quality is doing some of the work and neither number is settled. The gap is wide enough that drive length matters here: Seattle's offense should find third-and-manageable chances to extend drives, while Washington's offense may stall more often. Game flow and possession edges lean toward the road side if this holds.

BAL: 44% third downs allowed to DAL's 68%

Dallas has let opponents convert 68% of third downs through two games, compared with 44% for Baltimore. Both numbers are high and both come from small samples, so expect Dallas to fall back from that extreme. Paired with the rushing yards Dallas allows, this points to Baltimore sustaining long drives. Longer Baltimore possessions shape time of possession and the total.

LV: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2

Las Vegas is averaging four sacks a game, double New Orleans's two. Pressure numbers carry some weight even over two games, though who they faced skews it. Expect some cooling but a real rush edge. New Orleans's quarterback may get fewer clean looks, which matters for his passing yards and sack props.

MIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to TB's 1.5

Minnesota's pass rush is getting home four times a game, against 1.5 for Tampa Bay. Sacks over two games carry more signal than turnovers because pressure tends to repeat, though the opponents faced shape it. Minnesota's rate probably cools but stays a real edge. That points to a Tampa Bay offense that may face long-yardage downs and quicker throws, worth weighing on their passing props.

KC: 2 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0

Kansas City has 2 sacks a game over 2 games, while Miami has none. Sack totals over two games depend heavily on opponents, and the sheet does not say who either faced. Miami getting no pressure at all is the notable part, and it gives the Chiefs' quarterback a cleaner pocket in this game. That supports Kansas City's passing props more than Miami's defensive ones.

BUF: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to LAC's 1.5

Buffalo has averaged 3.5 sacks over 2 games, and the Chargers have 1.5. Two games of sacks swing hard on the opponent's line and how often they dropped back, and the sheet does not say who either team played. Expect the Buffalo number to come down some as the sample grows. The spot to think about is the Chargers' passing game at Buffalo: a pass rush that gets home can push drives into stalls and field goals.

ATL @ GB carries a 55.5 market total

At 55.5, this game sits 11.5 points above the 44 median on a 16-game slate, so the market expects both offenses to score freely and the game to become a shootout. The sheet names no injuries or units, so the number is carrying the whole story here. For it to crack, one team has to stall early and turn this into a one-sided game that slows down. Bettors can use it as a measure of how much scoring is already priced in before looking at anything else.

BAL: 83.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 173.5

Baltimore is holding opponents to 83.5 rushing yards a game, while Dallas is giving up 173.5. Over two games, the offenses faced and game scripts matter: a team that trails gets run on less. Dallas's number is loud enough that it likely reflects a real problem, even if it comes down some. Baltimore's ground game gets a clear setup here, which matters for rushing props and clock control.

HOU: 85.5 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 177

Houston has allowed 85.5 rushing yards a game over 2 games, while Indianapolis has given up 177. The sheet does not name the opponents, so Houston's number could be helped by schedule, and two games is thin. Indianapolis being that soft on the ground is the bigger early signal. Houston's run game has the better matchup, which matters for their running back and for how long they hold the ball.

NYJ: 65.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DET's 147

The Jets have allowed 65.5 rushing yards a game over 2 games, and Detroit has allowed 147. With the Jets also stingy against the pass, the defense looks solid across the board, though two games and unnamed opponents keep that from being settled. Detroit's run defense has given up plenty early. The Jets' ground game is the side of this matchup with more room to work.

CLE: 131.5 rushing yards allowed per game to CAR's 224

Carolina has allowed 224 rushing yards a game over 2 games, and Cleveland has allowed 131.5. Neither is good, but Carolina's is extreme, and two games can inflate a number fast if one opponent built a lead and ran the clock out. It will likely come down, though a defense that gives up that much on the ground has a real problem somewhere. Cleveland at home has a clear reason to lean on the run, which points toward long drives and a slower game.

Brenen Thompson (WR) is out for LAC

Thompson will not suit up Sunday in Buffalo because of a quadriceps injury, so the Chargers go into this road game one receiver short. The sheet does not say how big his role has been, so how much this matters depends on where he sits on the depth chart. Out means the decision is final, and his snaps go to the other Chargers wideouts.

Charlie Kolar (TE) is out for LAC

Jim Harbaugh said Kolar will miss Sunday's game in Buffalo with a forearm injury but should avoid injured reserve. That makes this a short absence. The Chargers will lean on their other tight ends this week, which can shift a few short targets around.

Elijah Molden (CB) is out for LAC

Molden has a hamstring injury and is ruled out for Sunday's game at Buffalo. That leaves the Chargers secondary without a corner against the Bills passing game. Out settles it, so the next man on the depth chart takes his snaps. Keep that thinner cornerback group in mind when you look at the Bills receivers in this one.

Trey Pipkins III (OT) is out for LAC

Pipkins will not play Sunday at Buffalo because of a knee injury, and the Chargers have known that since Sep 26, so the line likely already reflects it. The sheet does not name a replacement at tackle, so the thing to check before kickoff is who starts in Pipkins's spot on the road against the Bills' pass rush.

Dalvin Tomlinson (DT) is out for LAC

Tomlinson is ruled out for Sunday at Buffalo with a hamstring injury, reported Sep 25. Out means he will not play, so the Chargers go into Buffalo a man short on the interior defensive line. The report does not name who takes his snaps, so check the rotation news before judging how much the Bills' inside run game gains.

T.J. Sanders (DT) is out for BUF

Sanders will miss Sunday's game against the Chargers with an appendix issue, reported Sep 25. That is a medical absence, and no return timeline is given. Buffalo loses a defensive tackle from its line rotation this week, so pay attention to how the Bills fill the middle against the Chargers' run game.

Kayode Awosika (G) is out for LAC

Awosika (leg) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Bills. Reported Sep 26.

Trey Lance (QB) is questionable for LAC

Lance was a limited participant in Friday's practice due to a groin injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bills. Reported Sep 25.

Nick Scott (S) is out for CAR

Scott is out Sunday at Cleveland with a ribs injury, so Carolina is down a safety. He is also one of three Panthers defenders ruled out for this game, along with linebackers Cherelus and Lloyd. Out is final, and a backup safety takes his snaps against the Browns.

Claudin Cherelus (LB) is out for CAR

Cherelus has a shoulder injury and is ruled out for Sunday's game in Cleveland. He is one of two Carolina linebackers out this week, along with Lloyd, so the Panthers will lean on reserves in the middle of the defense. That thin group is the thing to keep in mind when you look at the Browns running game.

Devin Lloyd (LB) is out for CAR

Lloyd is out Sunday at Cleveland with a calf injury. With Cherelus also ruled out, Carolina is down two linebackers, and both starting spots in the middle go to backups. If you are looking at Browns rushing or tight end numbers, a short-handed linebacker room is a reasonable place to start.

Teven Jenkins (G) is out for CLE

Jenkins is out Sunday against the Panthers with a back injury, so Cleveland plays this home game without a starting-caliber guard. The sheet does not name who fills in, and one missing interior lineman rarely moves a spread much. It matters more for Browns props that rely on clean pockets or inside runs.

Mason Taylor (TE) is out for NYJ

Taylor's thumb injury keeps him off the field Sunday at Detroit, so the Jets play this road game without their tight end. The report gives no timeline beyond this game. Whoever else is on the tight end depth chart takes his snaps, which matters for any Jets tight end prop you look at this week.

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) is out for NYJ

Fitzpatrick has a groin injury and will not play Sunday in Detroit. He is a veteran safety who covers the back end for the Jets, and they now face the Lions passing game without him. Out settles it, so a backup safety takes his place. That weaker last line of defense matters most on deep throws and big plays by Detroit.

Thomas Harper (S) is out for DET

Harper is ruled out for Sunday against the Jets with an ankle injury, per a Sep 25 report from the Lions' official site. Out is final, so Detroit plays this game down a safety. No replacement is named, and the depth behind him is the thing to check if you are weighing Jets passing props.

Kene Nwangwu (RB) is doubtful for NYJ

Nwangwu has a back injury and is doubtful for Sunday's game in Detroit. Doubtful means he is very unlikely to play. His work in the Jets backfield, including any return duties, would go to the other backs on the roster.

Ben Bartch (G) is out for DET

Bartch has a foot injury and is ruled out for Sunday's home game against the Jets. It is a single guard absence with no replacement named on the sheet, so Detroit's offense should look mostly the same, and there is little reason to adjust much off this news alone.

Nico Collins (WR) is out for HOU

Collins has a hamstring injury and is already ruled out for Sunday's game at Indianapolis, so Houston plays without a receiver who is normally a big part of its passing game. The targets he usually draws go to the rest of the Texans' receivers, and the sheet doesn't say who gets most of them. When a team loses a top receiver, the receivers left on the roster tend to pick up volume, and the offense as a whole often gets harder to predict.

Alec Pierce (WR) is out for IND

Pierce is headed to injured reserve with a heel injury and has no timeline to return, so he is out for this week against Houston and several more. The Colts lose a receiver for the foreseeable future. Other wideouts will take on his routes and targets, so look at who moves up the depth chart when you size up Indianapolis passing numbers.

Ashton Dulin (WR) is out for IND

Dulin is ruled out for Sunday against the Texans with an ankle injury, reported Sep 25. He will not suit up, which takes one receiver out of the Colts' rotation. Nothing here says how big his role was, so this is more of a depth note than a reason to change your view of the Indianapolis passing game.

Jadeveon Clowney (DE) is out for HOU

Clowney is ruled out for Sunday at Indianapolis with a knee injury, reported Sep 25. Out means he is not playing, so Houston's edge rotation is thinner for this road game. No backup is named, so the Colts' protection matchup is the place to look for any edge this creates.

Jake Hummel (LB) is out for HOU

Hummel is ruled out for Sunday against the Colts with a groin injury, reported Sep 25. The Texans lose a linebacker for this one. He sits alongside Clowney on Houston's out list this week, so the Texans' defense will be missing two players in Indianapolis.

Ed Ingram (G) is out for HOU

Ingram is out Sunday at Indianapolis with a groin injury, leaving Houston a guard short on the road. The sheet does not say who steps in. Keep it in mind if you are looking at Texans rushing numbers, since interior line changes tend to show up in the run game first.

Caleb Douglas (WR) is out for MIA

Caleb Douglas is out for Miami against Kansas City with an ankle injury, and he did not practice Thursday. Out means he will not play. The sheet gives no target share or snap numbers, so his exact role is unknown. Miami's other receivers absorb his snaps, which matters most if you are looking at their receiving props.

Robert Beal Jr. (DE) is out for MIA

Beal is out Sunday against the Chiefs with a hamstring injury, so Miami's edge rotation loses a body at home. The sheet does not say how big a role Beal plays or who takes those snaps, which makes this a small note for anyone betting Chiefs quarterback protection or sack props.

Jaylen Wright (RB) is doubtful for MIA

Wright has a foot injury, was limited in Thursday's practice, and is doubtful for Sunday against Kansas City. Doubtful means he is very unlikely to play, even with the limited practice. Plan on Miami's other running backs taking his carries, and check the inactive list before you bet on the Dolphins backfield.

Andrei Iosivas (WR) is out for CIN

Iosivas tore a ligament in his thumb and is going on injured reserve, so he misses the trip to Pittsburgh and more. He is a depth receiver, so this changes the back end of Cincinnati's receiver rotation more than the headline names. Watch for who picks up his snaps if you look at Bengals receiver props.

Rico Dowdle (RB) is out for PIT

Dowdle has a toe injury and is ruled out for Pittsburgh's game against Cincinnati. His carries go to the rest of the Steelers' backfield, and the sheet doesn't name who leads it. When a team loses a running back, check who is active on Sunday before assuming anyone takes over his full workload.

Gennings Dunker (G) is out for PIT

Dunker has a knee injury and is ruled out for Sunday's home game against the Bengals. With no replacement named on the sheet, the practical question is who lines up at guard for Pittsburgh, and that matters most for Steelers rushing props.

Jayden Daniels (QB) is out for WSH

Daniels is out with an elbow injury, and Dan Quinn says the quarterback is week-to-week and staying off injured reserve. That keeps a return within a few weeks possible. Washington hosts Seattle with a backup under center, and the passing numbers and total should reflect that.

Chig Okonkwo (TE) is out for WSH

Okonkwo has a hamstring injury and is ruled out for Sunday's game against Seattle. Washington loses a tight end, so the other tight ends on the roster take his snaps and targets. If you are looking at Commanders pass-catcher props, that is the spot where work shifts.

Ty Okada (S) is out for SEA

Seattle plays at Washington on Sunday without Okada, who has a hamstring injury. The sheet does not say who replaces him. Love, another safety, is also ruled out for this game, so the Seahawks are down two players at the position. When a secondary is missing two safeties, check who the backups are before you bet on Washington's passing game.

Julian Love (S) is out for SEA

Love has a calf injury and will not play Sunday at Washington. Okada, another Seattle safety, is also out with a hamstring. That leaves the Seahawks without two of their safeties in the same game, and the back line will need backups to fill in. Anyone betting Washington's passing numbers should keep that thin depth in mind.

Frankie Luvu (LB) is out for WSH

Luvu will not play Sunday against the Seahawks because of a groin injury, and the report came in Sep 25. Out means there is no game-time decision here: Washington has known for days and can plan its linebacker rotation around his absence. The sheet does not name who takes his snaps, so check the depth chart before leaning on anything tied to the Washington defense.

Nick Cross (S) is out for WSH

Cross is out Sunday against Seattle with an internal injury, per Dan Quinn. Washington loses a safety from its secondary this week. Someone else steps into the back end of the defense, which is worth weighing if you like Seattle's passing game in this spot.

Sam Cosmi (G) is out for WSH

Cosmi (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Seahawks. Reported Sep 26.

Sam Darnold (QB) is questionable for SEA

Darnold (glute) said Thursday that he's "feeling good" and aiming to play Sunday at Washington, but the Seahawks are taking the situation "day by day," John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 24.

Dre'Mont Jones (DE) is out for NE

New England's pass rush will be without Jones, who has a shoulder injury, for Sunday's game at Jacksonville. The sheet does not say how many snaps he usually plays or who takes his place. A defense missing an edge rusher can put less pressure on the quarterback, which is worth factoring in when you look at Jacksonville's passing game.

Demarcus Robinson (WR) is out for SF

Robinson is ruled out after a high-ankle sprain in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Dolphins, and Kyle Shanahan put his recovery at 3-to-6 weeks. That timeline means Arizona is likely only the first game he misses, so this is a multi-week absence. The sheet does not name who takes his snaps, so check the Niners' depth chart before leaning on any backup receiver's number against Arizona.

Romello Height (DE) is out for SF

Height (hand) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals. Reported Sep 25.

Nick Bosa (DE) is out for SF

Bosa is out Sunday against the Cardinals with a calf injury, reported Sep 25, so there is no suspense about his status. San Francisco also has Romello Height and James Thompson Jr. ruled out, which leaves three defensive linemen off the field at once. With that much of the front missing, the Arizona quarterback likely sees less pressure than usual, and that is the angle to weigh on this game.

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S) is out for ARI

Arizona will not have Taylor-Demerson, who has a back injury, for Sunday's game at San Francisco. The sheet does not say how big his role is or who replaces him. With a safety out, the Cardinals' secondary goes into this road game thinner than usual, and that is the part of the defense the 49ers' passing game will test.

James Thompson Jr. (DT) is out for SF

Thompson is a defensive tackle, and his ankle injury keeps him out Sunday against Arizona, reported Sep 26. Out means he will not play, so his snaps go to the rest of the interior line. Paired with Romello Height also ruled out, San Francisco is down two defensive linemen for this game, which is worth factoring into how you view the Cardinals' ground game.

Nick Samac (C) is out for MIN

Samac, Minnesota's center, is out Sunday at Tampa Bay with a knee injury. Losing the player who snaps the ball means a backup handles calls and protections on the road, which is a detail to weigh on Vikings offensive props even though the sheet does not name the fill-in.

Rueben Bain Jr. (LB) is out for TB

Bain has a groin injury and is ruled out for Sunday against the Vikings. Out means he will not play. Tampa Bay is also without linebacker Josiah Trotter, so the linebacker room is short two bodies, and the sheet does not name who fills in. Minnesota's run game and short passing are the spots where that missing depth would show up first.

Josiah Trotter (LB) is out for TB

Trotter has a shoulder injury and is ruled out for Sunday against Minnesota. Out means he will not play. Tampa Bay is also missing Rueben Bain Jr. at linebacker, so two players at the same position are down. The sheet does not name a replacement, which makes the Bucs' coverage of backs and tight ends the area to watch.

Brett Thorson (P) is out for MIN

Thorson has a hamstring injury and will not punt for Minnesota on Sunday at Tampa Bay. The sheet does not name the replacement, so expect someone less familiar handling punts, which can nudge field position a little and is most relevant to anyone betting close totals.

Ronnie Stanley (OT) is out for BAL

Stanley is out Sunday at Dallas with a toe injury, so Baltimore plays without its listed starting tackle. The sheet does not name who replaces Stanley, and the thing to watch is how the backup holds up against the Cowboys' edge rushers, which bears on Ravens sack and passing props.

Cobie Durant (CB) is out for DAL

Durant is out for Sunday's game against Baltimore in Brazil with a hamstring injury, reported Sep 25. Out means he will not play, so Dallas needs someone else at corner. The sheet does not say who replaces him or what his role has been. Safety Malik Hooker is also out, which leaves the Dallas secondary thinner against the Ravens passing game.

DeMarvion Overshown (LB) is out for DAL

Overshown is not making the trip to Brazil because of a hamstring injury, reported Sep 25, so he is out against the Ravens. Linebacker Overshown joins corner Cobie Durant and safety Malik Hooker on the list of Dallas defenders who will miss the game. The sheet does not name who takes his snaps. With three defenders out, Baltimore faces a Dallas defense that is short at every level.

Malik Hooker (S) is out for DAL

Hooker is already ruled out for Sunday in Brazil with a forearm injury, reported Sep 25. He will not play. Corner Cobie Durant is also out, so Dallas is missing two starters in the back end, and the sheet does not name the replacements. Bettors should factor a thinner Dallas secondary into how they view Baltimore's passing game in this spot.

P.J. Locke (S) is out for DAL

Locke is a safety with a foot injury, and Dallas has already ruled him out for Sunday against the Ravens, so there is no game-time question here. The sheet does not say who replaces him, so the thing to watch is the depth chart at safety once the actives come out.

Barion Brown (WR) is out for NO

Brown is listed out for Sunday against Las Vegas with a hamstring injury, reported Sep 25. The Saints lose a receiver from the rotation for this home game. No replacement is named, so this matters most if you were counting on New Orleans' depth receivers.

Treydan Stukes (S) is out for LV

Stukes is ruled out for Sunday at New Orleans with a concussion, reported Sep 25. A concussion means clearing the league's protocol before he returns, so no timeline is set. The Raiders play this one a safety short in the secondary.

Christen Miller (DT) is out for NO

Miller is listed out for Sunday against the Raiders with a toe injury, reported Sep 25. New Orleans loses a defensive tackle for this game. The report does not say who fills in, so the Raiders' inside run game is the matchup to keep an eye on.

Aidan O'Connell (QB) is questionable for LV

O'Connell is questionable for Sunday at New Orleans for a personal matter, reported Sep 25. Questionable means a real chance he plays, and a personal absence has no injury to recover from, so his status depends on the circumstances. The report does not say what his role is this week, so check Sunday's inactives before betting anything tied to the Raiders' quarterback.

Jonah Coleman (RB) is out for DEN

The notes don't line up here: Coleman is listed as out with an ankle injury, but he returned to practice Friday. Practicing again is a step toward coming back. The out designation still stands for the Rams game, though, so Denver should plan to play without him this week.

Puka Nacua (WR) is doubtful for LAR

Sean McVay said Nacua will be listed doubtful for Sunday at Denver with a hip injury. Doubtful means he is very unlikely to play, so plan for the Rams without their top receiver. That pushes targets to the rest of the Rams receivers and makes any Nacua prop a likely non-starter.

Kamren Kinchens (S) is doubtful for LAR

Doubtful usually means a player is unlikely to suit up, so the Rams should plan on being without Kinchens, who has a hamstring injury, at Denver on Sunday. The sheet does not say who would start in his place. If he is officially ruled out before kickoff, Los Angeles will go into this road game with one fewer safety.

Tyson Bagent (QB) is questionable for CHI

Tyson Bagent is questionable for Chicago with a concussion and did not practice Friday. Questionable means a real chance of sitting, and a concussion listing depends on clearing protocol, which can come late in the week. Wait for final word on the Bears' quarterback room before trusting any Chicago passing number.

Dallas Goedert (TE) is doubtful for PHI

Goedert is doubtful for Sunday at Chicago with a knee injury and did not practice Friday. Doubtful means he is unlikely to play. If he sits, the Eagles lose their tight end in the passing game, and the targets he leaves will go to someone else on the depth chart. Confirm who is active before you bet the Philadelphia pass-catchers.

CLE: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to CAR's 100%

Carolina has let opponents score on every red-zone trip over 2 games, and Cleveland has allowed scores on half. Red-zone rates over two games come from only a handful of trips, so both numbers will move a lot. Carolina's 100% should come down, but combined with the rushing yards they have allowed, Cleveland has a path to finish drives. For a bettor this matters most on touchdown props and whether Cleveland drives end in sevens or threes.

IU: 77 rushing yards allowed per game to NU's 163.5

Indiana has held opponents to 77 rushing yards a game across three games, while Northwestern has given up 163.5 over just two. There are no opponent details on the sheet, so we can't say how much of that gap is schedule, and two games is a thin read on Northwestern. If both numbers are close to real, Indiana's front can make Northwestern one-dimensional, and Indiana's backs should find more room on the other side.

KC: 72.5 offensive plays per game to MIA's 53

KC is at 72.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; MIA is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season KC was at 62.4 over 17 games and MIA at 55.8 over 17 games.

IND: 8.5 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 28

HOU is at 28 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; IND is at 8.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 20.8 over 17 games and IND at 15.1 over 17 games.

Jacob Lopez: 13.86 ERA over his last 3 starts

Jacob Lopez has given up 19 earned runs on 23 hits in 12.1 innings across his last 3 starts, so he is getting hit hard and leaving early. His 5.68 season ERA was already poor, which makes this a bad year getting worse. Three starts is a small sample and the number should come back toward 5.68, which is still a lot of runs. Against Houston, the early innings and the Oakland bullpen are where this game gets decided.

P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

LAR: 142.5 rush yards a game to DEN's 82.5

The Rams are running for 142.5 yards a game over 2 games, Denver 82.5. Last season the Rams were at 126.6 and Denver at 118.7, so the Rams are close to their old level while Denver has dropped. Denver's run game should bounce back. The Rams ground game is the steadier number, and that matters for how the game flows in Denver.

Mariners 1-7 in Bryce Miller's last 8 starts

Seattle has won once in Bryce Miller's last eight starts and has lost the last three in a row, so the slide is recent. A team record over eight games reflects run support and the bullpen as much as Miller, and the sheet splits out neither. Eight starts is a small sample. At home against the Angels, check whether the Mariners have been scoring for him before leaning on the slide.

Dodgers 7-1 in Tarik Skubal's last 8 starts

Los Angeles has won seven of Tarik Skubal's last eight starts, six of them in a row. That record belongs to the whole team, hitting and bullpen included, over a short eight-game window. On the road in San Francisco, the streak is mostly baked into the price already, so the question is whether the number has gone too far.

Braves are 8-2 vs Marlins this season

Atlanta has won eight of ten against Miami, the last one an 11-3 blowout. The sheet names no Marlins starters or venues, so the gap is results only. Ten games is a fair sample, but tonight is in Miami and the record says nothing about who is pitching. Size up the starting matchup first and keep the series as background.

Yankees are 8-2 vs Orioles this season

The Yankees have won eight of ten against Baltimore this season, and the last meeting was a 6-1 game. The sheet gives no starters or ballparks for those games, so there is no way to pin the edge on one arm or one venue. Ten games is a fair sample for a season series, but tonight's starters carry more weight. Use the record as a check on how New York has handled this lineup, then price the pitching.

RUTG: 4.67 fourth-down attempts per game to HOW's 1.67

Rutgers is going for it on fourth down 4.67 times a game over three games, up from 2.83 last season, while Howard stays conservative at 1.67, near its 1.75 from last year. The Rutgers jump could be a coaching shift or just game situations in a three-game window. More fourth-down tries mean more swing plays in Rutgers' possessions, which adds variance to their drives and to how the scoreboard moves.

Yankees are 8-2 vs Orioles this season

New York has taken eight of ten from Baltimore, including a 6-1 win last time out. Nothing on the sheet says who pitched or where, so the record shows results without reasons. Ten meetings says the Yankees have been the better side in this matchup, and it has no say over tonight's arms. Start with the pitching and let the series be a small nudge toward the home side.

KC: 35:21 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:40

KC is at 35:21 time of possession per game over 2 games; MIA is at 27:40 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season KC was at 30:09 over 17 games and MIA at 28:57 over 17 games.

NU: 2.5 takeaways per game to IU's 1

Northwestern has forced 2.5 turnovers a game over two games, and Indiana's defense has forced one a game over three. Takeaways swing a lot from week to week, and a two-game rate is the kind of number that tends to come back toward the middle. Use it as a reason the game could get swingy on a short field, and lean more on the yardage numbers than on Northwestern forcing that many again.

Brewers are 8-2 vs Cardinals this season

Milwaukee has beaten St. Louis in eight of ten meetings, most recently 8-4. The sheet has no pitchers or venues for those games, so it shows who won without the why. Tonight's starters and the Brewers being at home are what to price, with the series record as a tiebreaker at most.

DAL: 6.5 sack yards lost per game to BAL's 25.5

Baltimore is losing 25.5 yards a game to sacks through 2 games, up from 17.2 last season, while Dallas is at 6.5 after 16 last year. Both numbers come from just 2 games and sit well off last season, so both should move toward the middle. Sack yardage stalls drives, which matters most for Baltimore staying on schedule in Dallas.

GB: 1.33 turnovers committed per game to ATL's 2.67

ATL is at 2.67 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; GB is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ATL was at 1.06 over 17 games and GB at 0.76 over 17 games.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

MIN: 29.6% third downs allowed to TB's 48.1%

Minnesota has allowed conversions on 29.6% of third downs, Tampa Bay 48.1%, both over two games. Paired with Minnesota's sack rate, this defense is getting off the field at a strong clip. Expect both numbers to move toward the middle, with Minnesota still ahead. This matchup favors Minnesota winning the possession battle.

KC: 20 points allowed per game to MIA's 31

KC is at 20 points allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and MIA at 24.9 over 17 games.

Kyle Tucker: 1.344 OPS in Last 15 Days

Kyle Tucker has a 1.344 OPS over the last 15 days, far above his .728 season mark, so he has been reaching base and hitting for power at a much higher rate. That run covers only 44 at-bats, and streaks like this usually cool toward the season number. With 17 home runs and a total-bases line of 1.5 against the Giants, the call is how much two hot weeks outweigh a full season of an ordinary bat.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

DET: 31 points per game to NYJ's 20

Detroit is scoring 31 points a game through 2 games, close to its 28.3 last season, while the Jets are at 20 after 17.6 last year. Detroit's number looks like who it has been, which makes it the steadier of the two. The Jets are up a bit early, but 2 games is thin, and the gap between these offenses matches last season closely.

Will Shipley (RB) is questionable for PHI

Shipley has a foot injury and was limited in Friday's practice, which leaves him questionable for Philadelphia's game at Chicago. Questionable means it could go either way, and a limited practice at the end of the week is a mixed sign. The sheet does not say how much he plays when healthy, so check the inactive list before betting anything tied to Eagles running backs.

DeVonta Smith (WR) is questionable for PHI

Smith (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Friday. Reported Sep 25.

Hollywood Brown (WR) is questionable for PHI

Brown (ankle) did not participate in Friday's practice. Reported Sep 26.

Kyle Monangai (RB) is questionable for CHI

Monangai (knee) was listed as a DNP on Thursday's practice estimate. Reported Sep 24.

DJ Moore (WR) is questionable for BUF

Head coach Joe Brady said Friday that Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable and a game-time decision for Sunday's contest against the Chargers, Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News reports. Reported Sep 25.

Nolan Arenado: 1.388 OPS in Last 15 Days

Nolan Arenado is squaring everything up, a 1.388 OPS over the last 15 days against a .796 season mark. It is 44 at-bats, short enough for a few big games to carry it, so expect some drift back. His 29 home runs say the power is real, and a proven slugger running hot against San Diego is a reason to check his prop prices before they adjust.

P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB

CAR: 6.7 yards per play to CLE's 5.25

Carolina is gaining 6.7 yards a play over 2 games, a big jump from 4.92 last season, and Cleveland is at 5.25 after 4.33. Carolina's number leans on big plays: 5 gains of 20-plus in its last game, including Bryce Young's 55-yarder to Xavier Legette and two catches by Tetairoa McMillan. Explosive plays are streaky, so expect Carolina to cool, but if Young keeps hitting deep shots, Cleveland will have to respond through the air.

Keon Coleman (WR) is questionable for BUF

Coleman (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus the Chargers. Reported Sep 25.

Jalen Coker (WR) is questionable for CAR

Coker is questionable for Carolina's trip to Cleveland with an ankle injury. Questionable means a real chance he plays and a real chance he sits, and the sheet gives no practice detail to tip it either way. Hold off on any Coker receiving number until his status firms up closer to kickoff.

ATL: 32:54 time of possession per game to GB's 25:38

ATL is at 32:54 time of possession per game over 3 games; GB is at 25:38 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ATL was at 30:00 over 17 games and GB at 29:48 over 17 games.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Xavier Legette (WR) is questionable for CAR

Legette has a knee injury and did not practice Thursday, which makes questionable a shaky tag for Sunday at Cleveland. If he cannot go, the Carolina receiver snaps get redistributed, so his practice status on Friday is the thing to check.

CHI: 5.9 yards per rush attempt to PHI's 4.1

Chicago is averaging 5.9 yards a carry over 2 games, up from 4.75 last season, while Philadelphia is at 4.1, right where it sat last year at 4.14. Philadelphia's number looks stable, and Chicago's looks inflated by a 2-game window. The Bears can lean on the run at home, but expect their per-carry mark to settle closer to last season.

Yandy Diaz: .292 OPS in Last 15 Days

Yandy Diaz has been ice cold, a .292 OPS over the last 15 days against .802 for the season, a drop of 0.51. That covers 49 at-bats, a short window for a hitter with a solid season line, so the direction from here is up. Against Philadelphia, his season numbers are the better guide to his props.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is questionable for NO

Etienne has a hamstring injury and was limited Thursday, which points more toward playing than sitting against the Raiders. Hamstrings can flare up, so even if he is active his workload could be managed.

Cooper Kupp (WR) is questionable for SEA

Kupp (back) was limited in Wednesday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.

Jadarian Price (RB) is questionable for SEA

Price (chest) was limited in practice Thursday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.

George Holani (RB) is questionable for SEA

Holani (knee) practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 23.

Jaylin Lane (WR) is questionable for WSH

Lane returned six kickoffs for 120 yards and one punt for 14 yards in Sunday's 37-20 loss to the Cowboys. Reported Sep 23.

LeQuint Allen Jr. (RB) is questionable for JAX

Allen is questionable for Jacksonville's home game against New England with a hip injury after a limited practice Thursday. A limited session means he took part in some work, and questionable means his status for this game is uncertain. The sheet does not say how many touches he usually gets or who fills in. His final practice status and the game-day inactive list will settle his availability.

Jakobi Meyers (WR) is questionable for JAX

Meyers is questionable with a thumb injury and was limited Thursday, which means practicing in part. Thumb injuries often let receivers play through them with some effect on catching. Friday's final status against New England is the tell; a full session would point toward a normal role.

Mike Evans (WR) is questionable for SF

Evans is questionable for Sunday against the Cardinals with a hip injury, reported Sep 25. That tag leaves his availability open until closer to game time. If he sits or is limited, targets in the San Francisco passing game shift to other receivers, so props on him or his teammates are best placed after inactives are out.

Aaron Jones Sr. (RB) is questionable for MIN

Jones is questionable with a knee injury and was at practice Friday, per the Sep 25 report, though the sheet doesn't say how much work he got. Minnesota visits a Tampa Bay defense missing two linebackers, so the matchup is friendly if Jones goes. Keep an eye on the running back workload split if he is limited.

CAR: 5 red-zone trips per game to CLE's 2.5

CAR is at 5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; CLE is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 2.65 over 17 games and CLE at 2.24 over 17 games.

DeeJay Dallas (RB) is questionable for MIN

Dallas was limited Thursday with a toe injury, so his practice work was cut back. A toe can take away a running back's burst, and questionable leaves his status for Tampa Bay open. The sheet does not show his role in Minnesota's backfield, so keep his involvement low in any read on the Vikings' rushing.

Zay Flowers (WR) is questionable for BAL

Flowers is questionable with a hamstring injury for Sunday's game against the Cowboys in Brazil. Hamstrings are the kind of injury teams handle carefully, and the report gives no practice detail to go on. His receiving props carry real risk until Baltimore settles his status, so waiting for the inactive list is the sensible move.

Kendre Miller (RB) is questionable for NO

Miller missed Thursday's practice with an illness, which tends to clear faster than an injury. One missed day because he was sick often does not decide Sunday. Look at Friday's report: if he practices, questionable probably means he plays against Las Vegas.

Jaylen Warren (RB) is questionable for PIT

Warren is questionable with a shoulder injury after a limited practice Friday, so he did some work but not all of it. Limited on Friday usually leaves a real chance to play, though his workload could be trimmed. That makes his rushing and receiving props shaky until the Steelers confirm his status, and any backfield bet against the Bengals is safer made closer to kickoff.

Jordan Whittington (WR) is questionable for LAR

Whittington is dealing with a quadriceps injury and was limited in Thursday's practice, which means he got some work in. Questionable means he has a real chance to play at Denver, and Friday's practice report is the next thing to check. If he sits, his targets go to the rest of the Rams receivers.

Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) is questionable for DEN

Mims is a Denver receiver dealing with a foot injury, and questionable means it is a real coin flip whether he suits up Sunday against the Rams. The report came Sep 26, so the final word likely lands closer to kickoff. If you are looking at Denver receiving props, wait for his status: if he sits, those targets spread to the other wideouts.

RJ Harvey (RB) is questionable for DEN

Harvey was on the field for the part of Thursday's practice open to media. That doesn't tell us how much he actually did. Dobbins and Coleman are also questionable, so Denver's whole backfield is uncertain against the Rams. Wait for the official practice designations before betting any Broncos running back.

J.K. Dobbins (RB) is questionable for DEN

Dobbins (hip) was spotted on the field for the media-access portion of Thursday's practice, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports. Reported Sep 24.

Saquon Barkley (RB) is questionable for PHI

Saquon Barkley is questionable for Philadelphia with a stinger but was on the field for the open part of Friday's practice. Taking part that late in the week is a better sign than a player who sat out. Barkley looks more likely to play than not, though the final status should still be confirmed before betting Eagles rushing numbers.

Tank Bigsby (RB) is questionable for PHI

Bigsby was limited at practice Friday with an abdomen injury and carries a questionable tag for Philadelphia's game at Chicago, reported Sep 25. A limited practice means he did some work, which keeps him in play to suit up. His rushing workload is the thing to watch if he goes, since a player coming off an injury can see fewer touches.

Adonai Mitchell (WR) is questionable for NYJ

Mitchell has a finger injury and is questionable for Sunday at Detroit. Questionable means he could play either way. Finger injuries sometimes affect how well a receiver catches the ball even when he does suit up, so watch the final status before counting on his role for the Jets.

Chris Bell (WR) is questionable for MIA

Bell is questionable with a knee injury, but on Thursday said he'll be ready Sunday against Kansas City. Questionable with a player-stated green light usually leans toward playing. Watch the final report for any practice downgrade before leaning on Bell's numbers.

Ryan Miller (WR) is questionable for MIA

Miller is questionable for Sunday against the Chiefs with a hip injury, reported Sep 25. Questionable means a real chance he plays and a real chance he sits, so the call may not come until close to kickoff. Anyone betting a Miami receiver market should wait for the inactive list before committing.

Tony Pollard (RB) is questionable for TEN

Pollard carries a questionable tag with an ankle injury, but he was set to be a full participant in Friday's practice, which is the strongest sign a player gets on the field Sunday against the Giants. A full Friday usually turns questionable into active. With Tyjae Spears also dealing with an ankle, Pollard looks like the healthier of Tennessee's two backs heading into this one.

Tyjae Spears (RB) is questionable for TEN

Tyjae Spears is a game-time question for Tennessee against the Giants because of an ankle injury. Questionable leaves it open either way, and an ankle can limit a running back even if he dresses. Hold off on Titans rushing props until the inactive list confirms whether Spears plays and how the carries might split.

Malik Nabers (WR) is questionable for NYG

Nabers hurt his right shoulder and said Thursday the X-rays came back with good results, which rules out the worst outcomes like a fracture. He is questionable for the Titans game, and the clean imaging makes playing more likely than not. The fact sheet does not say whether he practiced, so Friday's participation is the next thing to check before leaning on his receiving numbers.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) is questionable for PIT

Pittman has a foot injury and is questionable for Sunday against the Bengals, which in plain terms means it could go either way. The report does not say how he practiced, so there is little to read into yet. If he sits or is limited, his targets have to go somewhere, so hold off on his receiving props and anything built on him until the inactive list comes out.

LAR: 6.55 yards per play to DEN's 5.15

The Rams are gaining 6.55 yards a play over 2 games, close to last season's 6.15, while Denver is at 5.15 after 5.32. Both teams look a lot like they did last season, which makes this gap more believable than most 2-game splits. The Rams moving the ball efficiently in Denver fits their track record.

NE: 4.7 yards per play allowed to JAX's 6.1

New England allows 4.7 yards per play, Jacksonville 6.1, both over two games. Yards per play is steadier than most stats over a short stretch because it counts every snap. The gap probably narrows but likely holds. That makes New England's offense the side more likely to move the ball efficiently here.

MIN games have gone UNDER 6 straight

Minnesota's last six games have averaged 6.7 combined runs against totals around 8.5. Six games is a short run, and the market has already reacted: tonight's total is 7.25. The streak cleared by close to two runs a night, and the lower number takes away much of that cushion. Against Texas, the question is whether scoring stays near 6.7 or climbs toward a line that has already dropped.

P final total 12 vs 7.25

Clay Holmes: 9.39 ERA over his last 3 starts

Clay Holmes has allowed 16 earned runs in 15.1 innings over his last 3 starts on only 14 hits, so walks or extra-base damage are doing the harm more than steady contact. His 3.25 season ERA says he has been good all year, and three starts is a short sample. Against the Cubs, watch his control early: if the free passes are gone, the season version is the better guide.

P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K

HOU: 75.5 offensive plays per game to IND's 58

HOU is at 75.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; IND is at 58 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 64 over 17 games and IND at 59.9 over 17 games.

LV: 13.5 points allowed per game to NO's 24

LV is at 13.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 24 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LV was at 25.4 over 17 games and NO at 22.5 over 17 games.

CAL: 40.5% third-down conversion rate to CLEM's 20%

Cal converts 40.5% of its third downs, almost exactly its 40.4% from last season over 13 games. Clemson is at 20% through three games after 34.3% last year, so the Tigers' number looks more like a rough start than a new normal. Expect Clemson to climb back somewhat, while Cal's steady rate is the part to trust. Sustained drives favor Cal until Clemson shows it has fixed the money downs.

HOU: 252.5 passing yards allowed per game to IND's 337.5

Houston gives up 252.5 passing yards a game, Indianapolis 337.5, both over two games. Passing yards allowed rise when a defense is protecting a lead, so script may inflate Indianapolis's number. Even so trimmed back, Houston's passing game has room to work. That supports looking at Houston receiving props.

BAL: 6.75 yards per play to DAL's 5.4

Baltimore is gaining 6.75 yards a play over 2 games, up from 5.92 last season, while Dallas is at 5.4 after 5.96. Last season these offenses were nearly even, so this split comes from 2 games. Baltimore's jump comes despite heavy sack losses early, which means the plays that do get off are going for big chunks.

SEA: 7.65 yards per pass attempt to WSH's 5.3

Seattle is averaging 7.65 yards per pass attempt over 2 games, a bit below last season's 8.01, while Washington is at 5.3 after 6.41. Seattle looks like itself; Washington's passing game has slipped in a 2-game sample. Expect Washington to recover some of that, but Seattle's efficiency through the air has held up across both seasons.

NYJ: 38:13 time of possession per game to DET's 31:33

NYJ is at 38:13 time of possession per game over 2 games; DET is at 31:33 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NYJ was at 28:15 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.

GB: 4 red-zone trips per game to ATL's 1.67

ATL is at 1.67 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; GB is at 4 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ATL was at 2.94 over 17 games and GB at 3.47 over 17 games.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

ATL: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 83.3%

Green Bay has allowed a score on 83.3% of red-zone trips, Atlanta 50%, over three games each. Red-zone rates swing on a few plays, so expect Green Bay's number to come down. Atlanta's offense should still get chances to finish drives with touchdowns. That matters more for scoring props than for the spread.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

PHI: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to CHI's 50%

Philadelphia has converted every fourth down over 2 games, against 52.4% last season, while Chicago is at 50% after 51.7%. With so few attempts in 2 games, this gap is noise. Last season the two teams were nearly identical, and that is a better baseline for this matchup.

TEN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NYG's 50%

Tennessee has converted every fourth down over 2 games, against 45.7% last season, and the Giants are at 50% after 46.2%. Perfect rates on a handful of tries in 2 games will not last. Last season's numbers, which were nearly identical, are the better guide for how often these teams convert.

IU: 126.3 passing yards allowed per game to NU's 226.5

NU is at 226.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; IU is at 126.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

GB: 0.67 interceptions thrown per game to ATL's 2

ATL is at 2 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; GB is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ATL was at 0.47 over 17 games and GB at 0.41 over 17 games.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson

Back · Did not practice · Out

Romello Height

Hand · Did not practice · Out

Nick Bosa

Knee, Calf · Did not practice · Out

Christen Miller

Toe · Did not practice · Out

Daniel Bellinger (TE) is questionable for TEN

Bellinger is questionable for Tennessee's trip to the Giants after missing practice Thursday with an illness. Illnesses can clear up fast, but a missed practice leaves his status for Sunday in doubt. The sheet does not describe his role at tight end or name a backup. Hold off on any Titans tight end angle until his status is settled.

B.J. Hill (DT) is doubtful for CIN

Hill is listed doubtful for Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, and doubtful players usually do not suit up. The sheet gives no injury or practice detail beyond the tag, and names no replacement, so the takeaway is a Bengals interior line likely missing one of its defensive tackles against the Steelers run game.

Eli Raridon (TE) is questionable for NE

Raridon has a thigh injury and is questionable for New England's game at Jacksonville, which means he may or may not play. The report does not include his practice status or how big his role is. If you are looking at props on Patriots tight ends, wait for the inactive list about ninety minutes before kickoff.

Albert Regis (DT) is doubtful for JAX

Jacksonville lists Regis as doubtful against the Patriots, which usually means he is unlikely to play. The report does not name the injury. Plan on the Jaguars' defensive line going without him on Sunday.

Brock Bowers (TE) is questionable for LV

Bowers (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints, with head coach Klint Kubiak telling reporters that the tight end's absence from Friday's practice was planned, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 25.

Terrance Ferguson (TE) is questionable for LAR

Ferguson was limited at Wednesday's walkthrough due to an ankle injury, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.

Colby Parkinson (TE) is questionable for LAR

Parkinson (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's contest at Denver, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 25.

Barion Brown

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Treydan Stukes

Concussion · Did not practice · Out

P.J. Locke

Foot · Did not practice · Out

Malik Hooker

Forearm · Did not practice · Out

Ronnie Stanley

Toe · Did not practice · Out

DeMarvion Overshown

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Warren Brinson

Calf · Did not practice · Out

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Cobie Durant

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Josiah Trotter

Shoulder · Limited practice · Out

Nick Samac

Knee · Did not practice · Out

Red Sox 2-6 in Brayan Bello's last 8 starts

Boston has won two of Brayan Bello's last eight starts, so his days have mostly gone wrong for the club. The sheet shows no current losing streak or opponent detail, so it is eight games of mixed results with no single cause. With the Cubs in town, check whether Bello and the Boston lineup have done enough lately to change the trend before leaning on it.

Brewers 6-2 in Robert Gasser's last 8 starts

Milwaukee has won six of Robert Gasser's last eight starts, with no current streak, so the wins are spread across the stretch. Eight games is a small sample. At home against St. Louis, it points to a steady trend behind him, and the thing to compare is how much the price already rates him.

Rockies 2-6 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 8 starts

Colorado has won two of Tomoyuki Sugano's last eight starts and has lost his last three. Team record also reflects the offense and bullpen behind him, and eight games is a small sample. Against the White Sox, weigh the pitching matchup itself above the recent run of losses.

Rays 6-2 in Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts

Tampa Bay has won six of Freddy Peralta's last eight starts, including his last five, so the good results are the recent ones. A win streak leans on run support and the bullpen as much as the starter, and eight games is a small sample. On the road in Philadelphia, look at how far the streak has already moved the line.

Brett Thorson

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Nick Cross

Illness · Did not practice · Out

Sam Cosmi

Concussion, Throat · Did not practice · Out

Jayden Daniels

Elbow · Did not practice · Out

Ty Okada

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Rueben Bain Jr.

Groin · Did not practice · Out

Frankie Luvu

Groin · Did not practice · Out

Andrei Iosivas

Thumb · Did not practice · Out

Rico Dowdle

Toe · Did not practice · Out

Gennings Dunker

Knee · Did not practice · Out

Julian Love

Calf · Did not practice · Out

Josh Simmons

Back · Did not practice · Out

Robert Beal Jr.

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Caleb Douglas

Ankle · Did not practice · Out

M.J. Stewart

Knee · Limited practice · Out

Nico Collins

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Jackson Merrill: 1.093 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jackson Merrill has a 1.093 OPS over the last 15 days against .740 for the season. The 56 at-bats are sturdier than most hot runs, though it is still two weeks. His 26 home runs back up the power, so against Arizona he is best seen as a good hitter running hot, with some cooling likely.

P 1-for-2, 1 TB

Jake Hummel

Groin · Did not practice · Out

Jadeveon Clowney

Knee · Did not practice · Out

Ashton Dulin

Ankle · Did not practice · Out

Alec Pierce

Heel · Did not practice · Out

Ed Ingram

Groin · Did not practice · Out

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Groin · Did not practice · Out

Thomas Harper

Ankle · Did not practice · Out

Kiko Mauigoa

Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

Ben Bartch

Foot · Did not practice · Out

Mason Taylor

Thumb · Did not practice · Out

Teven Jenkins

Back · Did not practice · Out

Chig Okonkwo

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

James Thompson Jr.

Ankle · Did not practice · Out

Devin Lloyd

Calf · Did not practice · Out

Nick Scott

Rib · Did not practice · Out

Claudin Cherelus

Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

Trey Pipkins III

Knee · Did not practice · Out

Elijah Molden

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Kayode Awosika

Fibula · Did not practice · Out

Jayden Reed

Neck · Did not practice · Out

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Samson Ebukam

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Zach Bako-Bewele

Knee · Did not practice · Out

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Brenden Schooler

Back · Limited practice · Out

Jonah Coleman

Ankle · Did not practice · Out

Aaron Banks

Knee, Toe · Did not practice · Out

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

T.J. Sanders

Illness · Did not practice · Out

Charlie Kolar

Forearm · Did not practice · Out

Brenen Thompson

Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

Jordan Hancock

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Dalvin Tomlinson

Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

Dre'Mont Jones

Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

Quintayvious Hutchins

Knee · Did not practice · Out

Demarcus Robinson

Ankle · Did not practice · Out

BAL @ DAL carries a 52.5 market total

A 52.5 total, 8.5 points over the 44 slate median, says the market expects points from both sides in Baltimore at Dallas. Nothing else on the sheet explains why, so this is the market's view alone. The expectation breaks if drives end in field goals instead of touchdowns, since a few stalled red-zone trips can erase that cushion fast.

CIN: 5.05 yards per play to PIT's 3.8

Through 2 games Cincinnati gains more on a typical snap, and Pittsburgh's 3.8 is well off the 5.22 it posted last season, when these offenses were almost dead even. The Bengals' last game had 4 plays of 20+ yards, with Burrow finding Chase for a 32-yard score and Higgins twice for 23, while the Steelers managed 1, a 26-yarder from Rodgers to Warren. Two games is a thin sample and Pittsburgh should drift back toward last season's level. If Cincinnati's receivers keep stretching the field, the Steelers are pushed into long, slow drives at home.

KC: 80% fourth-down conversion rate to MIA's 33.3%

KC is at 80% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season KC was at 75% over 17 games and MIA at 47.8% over 17 games.

Ezequiel Duran: .335 OPS in Last 15 Days

Ezequiel Duran has a .335 OPS over the last 15 days, 0.408 below his .743 season mark, in 48 at-bats. That is a short cold run, and the season line is the better read on who he is, so expect some pull back up. Against Minnesota, a prop line lowered on the slump can end up priced too low.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

HOW has 7 more days of rest

Howard walks into Rutgers with two weeks to prepare, coming off a bye with 13 days since its last game, while Rutgers is on a normal 6-day week. The extra time lets a staff heal bumps, install wrinkles and study one opponent twice as long. Rutgers, at home, runs its usual routine. A rest edge is one input, so weigh it next to the talent gap and home field when sizing up this game.

Mookie Betts: 1.155 OPS in Last 15 Days

Mookie Betts has a 1.155 OPS in 48 at-bats over the last 15 days against a .775 season baseline. Gaps like that over two weeks tend to shrink, though his 22 home runs show the pop is real. His total-bases line is 1.5 against the Giants, which takes a double or two hits, so the question is how much of the surge you believe.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

TOR games have gone UNDER 5 straight

Toronto games have averaged 7.2 runs during five straight unders, with totals around 7.7. That is about a half-run margin, so several of these could have flipped on one swing. Tonight's total against Cincinnati is 7.5, right where the streak has lived. Five games at that margin is thin evidence either way.

P final total 11 vs 7.5

ARI have won 5 straight

Arizona has outscored opponents by 17 runs during this five-game win streak, so most of these were comfortable. Over the last 10 the team is 6-4, which places the streak inside an ordinary stretch. Five games is a short run. On the road in San Diego, the 6-4 is the steadier read when judging the price.

P team won 11-4

WSH games have gone UNDER 5 straight

Washington's five straight unders came with 8.4 combined runs a game against totals averaging 9.3. Those were high lines, and the games still scored plenty. Tonight's total against the Mets is 8, below what these games have been producing. The streak came from inflated numbers more than quiet bats, and a lower line removes most of what carried it.

P final total 13 vs 8

Kevin Levy (DB) is out for RUTG

Cornerback ruled out on Rutgers' availability report ahead of the Sept 19 USC game. Rutgers will have starting QB back from injury vs. USC, but this star player is game-time decision (2026-09-19)

Jyon Simon (DL) is out for RUTG

Defensive lineman ruled out on Rutgers' availability report ahead of the Sept 19 USC game. Rutgers will have starting QB back from injury vs. USC, but this star player is game-time decision (2026-09-19)

Dantae Chin (OL) is out for RUTG

Listed out on Rutgers' Sept 17 injury report ahead of the USC game. Rutgers Injury Report: An important player makes the list (2026-09-17)

PHI: 166 passing yards allowed per game to CHI's 240

Philadelphia has allowed 166 passing yards a game, while Chicago has given up 240, so the Eagles have been far tighter against the pass so far. That is two games each, and the sheet doesn't say which quarterbacks they faced, so some of the gap could be schedule. Two games can swing hard in either direction. For this one, the question is whether Chicago's pass defense can hold up on its home field, more than whether Philadelphia's number is real.

PHI: 5.05 yards per play allowed to CHI's 6.25

Philadelphia allows 5.05 yards every time an offense snaps the ball, and Chicago allows 6.25, a big per-play gap. Both numbers come from two games, and nothing here shows who those offenses were. Rates this early tend to drift toward the middle. The gap makes Chicago's defense the one more likely to give up chunk plays in this matchup, but it rests on a thin sample.

CIN: 74.5 rushing yards allowed per game to PIT's 128

Cincinnati allows 74.5 rushing yards a game, Pittsburgh 128, both over two games. Some of that depends on who they faced and whether teams were trailing. Pittsburgh's number may settle lower, but Cincinnati's ground game has a clearer path. That favors Cincinnati rushing props in this spot.

Tyson Campbell (CB) is questionable for CLE

Campbell (ankle/hip/knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 25.

Joseph Ossai (DE) is questionable for NYJ

Ossai (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 26.

Blake Miller (OT) is questionable for DET

Miller (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 25.

Charvarius Ward (CB) is questionable for IND

Ward (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Texans, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. Reported Sep 25.

Cor'Dale Flott (CB) is questionable for TEN

Flott is a cornerback with a quadriceps injury, listed questionable for Sunday's trip to face the Giants. That tag means Tennessee has not decided whether he plays. The sheet does not name a backup or say when he last played, so if he sits, the change shows up in the Giants' receiving matchups. Check inactives before leaning on New York's passing numbers.

Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable for NYG

Banks is questionable for Sunday against the Titans with a calf injury, reported Sep 25. Calf issues can linger, and questionable leaves his status open until near kickoff. If he sits, the Giants lean on backup corners, which is worth factoring into Tennessee passing props once the inactive list confirms it.

Andrew Thomas (OT) is questionable for NYG

Thomas (groin) did not practice Thursday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. Reported Sep 25.

Jaxson Dart (QB) is on injured reserve for NYG

The Giants officially placed Dart (knee) on injured reserve Thursday, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 24.

Joey Porter Jr. (CB) is questionable for PIT

Porter (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. Reported Sep 25.

Jamel Dean (CB) is questionable for PIT

Dean (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. Reported Sep 25.

Garrett Williams (CB) is questionable for ARI

Williams (Achilles) was a limited participant at the Cardinals' practice Wednesday, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.

Max Melton (CB) is questionable for ARI

Melton (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus San Francisco, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Sep 26.

Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (DE) is questionable for MIN

Coach Kevin O'Connell said Monday that Ingram-Dawkins is "day-to-day" after injuring his hip in Week 2 at Chicago, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 22.

Darien Porter (CB) is questionable for LV

Porter (foot) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.

Chase Young (DE) is questionable for NO

Young (calf) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.

Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable for NO

Emerson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus the Raiders. Reported Sep 25.

Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB) is questionable for CHI

Stevenson (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday's practice. Reported Sep 25.

Ryan Jeffers: .237 OPS in Last 15 Days

Ryan Jeffers has a .237 OPS over the last 15 days, 0.571 below his .808 season mark. It covers only 32 at-bats, where a few hard-hit outs can sink the number. His season production says this is more likely to rise than stick, so against Texas his .808 is the better guide to his lines.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

CAR: 43.5% third-down conversion rate to CLE's 28.6%

CAR is at 43.5% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; CLE is at 28.6% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 36.1% over 17 games and CLE at 33.6% over 17 games.

Jacob Monk (C) is questionable for GB

Monk picked up an undisclosed injury late in the Packers' 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday and is questionable, reported Sep 25. With no injury named and a short turnaround, his status is hard to read ahead of time. If he cannot go, Green Bay has to shuffle the middle of its offensive line, which can affect both the run game and pass protection.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

HOU: 28 points allowed per game to IND's 37

HOU is at 28 points allowed per game over 2 games; IND is at 37 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 17.4 over 17 games and IND at 24.2 over 17 games.

HOU: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to IND's 2

Houston is averaging 3.5 sacks a game, Indianapolis two, over two games each. Pressure tends to carry over better than most defensive stats. Houston's rush looks like a genuine edge here. Indianapolis's passing game may face more hurried downs, which is worth factoring into its quarterback props.

BAL: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 1

Baltimore is averaging 2.5 sacks a game, Dallas one, over two games. Pressure rates carry some signal even in short samples. Combined with Dallas's run and third-down trouble, Baltimore's defense looks like the healthier unit. Dallas's quarterback may face more pressure, which matters for his passing props.

JAX: 1.5 sacks taken per game to NE's 3

NE is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NE was at 3 over 17 games and JAX at 3.42 over 17 games.

SF: 0 sacks taken per game to ARI's 1.5

ARI is at 1.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; SF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ARI was at 3.69 over 17 games and SF at 1.8 over 17 games.

DAL: 1 sack taken per game to BAL's 2.5

BAL is at 2.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DAL is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 2.65 over 17 games and DAL at 2.38 over 17 games.

LAR: 0.5 sacks taken per game to DEN's 2

LAR is at 0.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 1.77 over 17 games and DEN at 1.77 over 17 games.

Kene Nwangwu

Back · Did not practice · Doubtful

Jaylen Wright

Stinger, Foot · Did not practice · Doubtful

Chamarri Conner

Knee · Limited practice · Doubtful

B.J. Hill

Achilles · Did not practice · Doubtful

Albert Regis

Elbow · Limited practice · Doubtful

Puka Nacua

Hip · Did not practice · Doubtful

Kamren Kinchens

Hamstring · Did not practice · Doubtful

WSH: 66.7% red-zone scoring rate to SEA's 42.9%

SEA is at 42.9% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; WSH is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season SEA was at 54.2% over 17 games and WSH at 65.2% over 17 games.

NYJ: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 90%

NYJ is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DET is at 90% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

PHI: 0 fumbles lost per game to CHI's 1

PHI is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season PHI was at 0.47 over 17 games and CHI at 0.24 over 17 games.

BAL: 8.65 yards per pass attempt to DAL's 6.6

BAL is at 8.65 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DAL is at 6.6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and DAL at 7 over 17 games.

KC: 6.3 yards per play to MIA's 5.15

Kansas City is ripping off big chunks: 6.3 yards a play over 2 games, up from 5.05 last season, with 5 plays of 20+ yards last time out, including Mahomes to Thornton for 45 and two to Rashee Rice. Miami's 5.15 sits a little under last year's 5.4, though its last game leaned on a 77-yard Willis to Ryan Miller touchdown. One long play can inflate a 2-game average, and the Chiefs' jump from last season is the number most likely to cool. If Kansas City keeps hitting downfield, Miami gets pulled into a faster game than it wants.

ATL: 35.7% third downs allowed to GB's 50%

Atlanta has let opponents convert 35.7% of third downs, while Green Bay has allowed half of them. Three games is a slightly firmer sample than most this early, though the opponents aren't listed. If Green Bay keeps letting offenses off the hook on third down, Atlanta's drives stay alive longer, which matters for totals and possession-heavy props.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

CIN: 0 fumbles lost per game to PIT's 1

CIN is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CIN was at 0.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.35 over 17 games.

Eury Perez: 8.56 ERA over his last 3 starts

Eury Perez has put too many runners on lately, a 2.20 WHIP over his last 3 starts against 1.27 on the season, with 13 earned runs in 13.2 innings. The traffic came first and the runs followed. Three starts is a small sample and his 4.14 season ERA is the fairer baseline. Against Atlanta, clean early innings would make the recent stretch look like noise.

P 9 IP, 0 ER, 8 K

CAR: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to CLE's 2.95

CAR is at 4.4 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; CLE is at 2.95 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 4.16 over 17 games and CLE at 3.9 over 17 games.

KC: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 88.9%

KC is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; MIA is at 88.9% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

TEN: 71.4% red-zone scoring allowed to NYG's 100%

Tennessee has held opponents out of the end zone or off the board on some red-zone trips, allowing scores 71.4% of the time, while the Giants have allowed a score on every trip. Both are two-game numbers built on a handful of possessions, so one stop swings them wildly. A 100% rate won't last, but it does say the Giants haven't bent without breaking yet.

NE: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to JAX's 28.6%

New England hasn't allowed a single red-zone score in two games, and Jacksonville has allowed one on 28.6% of trips. Both are excellent, and both rest on very few possessions, so a zero will not hold for long. Two stingy red-zone defenses in the same game can turn drives into field goals or empty trips, which matters more for the total than the side.

CIN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to PIT's 1.5

CIN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CIN was at 1.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.88 over 17 games.

Christian Walker: .334 OPS in Last 15 Days

Christian Walker has a .334 OPS over the last 15 days in 44 at-bats, 0.369 below his .703 season mark. That season line was already modest, so the rebound target is lower than for a star bat. Some recovery toward .703 is likely, and against Houston he is a middling hitter in a cold run.

P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB

Derwin James Jr. (S) is questionable for LAC

James (finger) did not participate at practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

SF: 134.5 rushing yards per game to ARI's 93

ARI is at 93 rushing yards per game over 2 games; SF is at 134.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ARI was at 93.1 over 17 games and SF at 106.9 over 17 games.

JAX: 23.5 points per game to NE's 15

NE is at 15 points per game over 2 games; JAX is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NE was at 28.8 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.

LAC: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to BUF's 77.8%

LAC is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; BUF is at 77.8% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

NE: 166 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 236.5

New England has held offenses to 166 passing yards a game, while Jacksonville has allowed 236.5. Two games is a small window, and the opposing passers aren't listed, so schedule could explain part of it. The Jaguars' secondary is the side giving up yards so far, which is the angle to weigh for Patriots passing props.

ARI (1-1) at SF (2-0), a division game

ARI is 1-1, -12 points on the year, has lost 1 straight this season. SF is 2-0, +42 points on the year, has won 2 straight this season. ARI is 1-0 on the road; SF is 1-0 at home. Both live in the NFC WEST.

CAL: 31.3 points per game to CLEM's 20

CLEM is at 20 points per game over 3 games; CAL is at 31.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CLEM was at 27.2 over 13 games and CAL at 25.3 over 13 games.

BAL: 4.7 yards per play allowed to DAL's 5.8

BAL is at 4.7 yards per play allowed over 2 games; DAL is at 5.8 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

CIN (2-0) at PIT (1-1), a division game

Cincinnati comes in unbeaten at +20, while Pittsburgh has been outscored by 10 and is coming off a loss. Both teams have taken care of their only game in their spot so far, Cincinnati 1-0 on the road and Pittsburgh 1-0 at home, so neither split tells you much yet. Two games is a thin base for a 30-point gap in scoring margin, and division familiarity tends to squeeze the space between teams. Weigh Cincinnati's early form, but expect a tighter game than the margins alone suggest.

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.119 OPS in Last 15 Days

Tatis is up 0.294 on his .825 season OPS over the last 15 days. At 55 AB this is a larger sample than most hot streaks, though two weeks is still two weeks. His 25 home runs back up the power. With a 1.5 total-bases line at home against Arizona, the recent form and the season track record point the same direction.

P 2-for-3, 3 TB

Angel Martinez: 1.310 OPS in Last 15 Days

Angel Martinez has a 1.310 OPS over the last 15 days in only 29 at-bats, against a .761 season mark. A stretch that short can swing on two or three swings. With 17 home runs and a total-bases line of 1.5 against Cleveland, the season number is the better base for sizing up the prop.

P 2-for-5, 3 TB, 1 BB

RUTG: 21.3 first downs per game to HOW's 13

HOW is at 13 first downs per game over 3 games; RUTG is at 21.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOW was at 17.4 over 12 games and RUTG at 23.3 over 12 games.

Twins are 3-0 vs Rangers this season

Minnesota is 3-0 against Texas, the last one a 9-3 win. Three games is a small sample and the sheet gives no starters or venues, so it amounts to three results that could flip in one night. Tonight's pitching matchup matters far more than the sweep.

Spencer Torkelson: 1.177 OPS in Last 15 Days

Spencer Torkelson has a 1.177 OPS over the last 15 days against .752 for the season. At 38 at-bats, a couple of homers carry that number, so it should come down. His total-bases line against Pittsburgh is 0.5, meaning one hit cashes it, and with 25 home runs on the year that low bar is the part that matters.

P 3-for-4, 9 TB

HOU: 6.2 yards per play allowed to IND's 7.3

HOU is at 6.2 yards per play allowed over 2 games; IND is at 7.3 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

TEN: 5.25 yards per play allowed to NYG's 6.35

Tennessee allows 5.25 yards per play and the Giants allow 6.35, so offenses have moved much easier against New York. It is two games apiece, with no opponent detail on the sheet. Per-play numbers settle down over time, but a Giants defense giving up this much at home is the one to be wary of in this matchup.

Andrew Mukuba (S) is questionable for PHI

Mukuba (knee) was limited in practice Thursday. Reported Sep 24.

Jalen Carter (DT) is questionable for PHI

Carter (wrist) was a limited participant in practice Thursday. Reported Sep 24.

Jonathan Greenard (LB) is questionable for PHI

Greenard (pectoral) was a limited participant in Friday's practice. Reported Sep 26.

Nate Landman (LB) is questionable for LAR

Landman (shoulder) was a limited participant in Wednesday's estimated practice, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.

Jonas Sanker (S) is questionable for NO

Sanker (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.

Nakobe Dean (LB) is questionable for LV

Dean (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 24.

Chris Moore (WR) is questionable for BAL

BAL lists Chris Moore as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 25.

Jauan Jennings (WR) is questionable for MIN

MIN lists Jauan Jennings as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Roy Lopez (DT) is questionable for ARI

Lopez (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus the 49ers, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Sep 26.

DaVon Hamilton (DT) is questionable for JAX

Hamilton (back) was a limited participant at the Jaguars' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Craig Woodson (S) is questionable for NE

Woodson is questionable for Sunday at Jacksonville with a shoulder injury, meaning a real chance to play or sit. Check the final inactive list before betting anything on the Patriots' pass defense, since the sheet does not say who covers the safety spot if Woodson is out.

Jeremy Reaves (S) is questionable for WSH

Reaves (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.

Leo Chenal (LB) is questionable for WSH

Chenal (chest) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 24.

Kaytron Allen (RB) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Kaytron Allen as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Javon Kinlaw (DT) is questionable for WSH

Kinlaw (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday, John Keim of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 23.

Ernest Jones IV (LB) is questionable for SEA

Jones (neck) was a limited participant at the Seahawks' practice Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 24.

Jonathan Allen (DT) is questionable for CIN

Allen (knee) did not participate at practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Tyler Nubin (S) is questionable for NYG

Nubin (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus Tennessee, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 25.

Brian Burns (LB) is questionable for NYG

Burns (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 25.

Chop Robinson (LB) is questionable for MIA

Robinson is working back from a concussion and was a full participant Wednesday, which is the best sign you get this early in the week. He still has to clear the league's concussion steps, and that is why the questionable tag stays on. If he stays full through Friday, expect Miami's pass rush to have him against Kansas City.

DJ Giddens (RB) is questionable for IND

IND lists DJ Giddens as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Grant Delpit (S) is questionable for CLE

Delpit (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 25.

Jaelan Phillips (LB) is questionable for CAR

Phillips (back) did not practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.

Ed Oliver (DT) is questionable for BUF

Oliver (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers. Reported Sep 25.

Ty Johnson (RB) is questionable for BUF

BUF lists Ty Johnson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

BUF: 144.5 rushing yards per game to LAC's 104

LAC is at 104 rushing yards per game over 2 games; BUF is at 144.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAC was at 121.6 over 17 games and BUF at 159.6 over 17 games.

Jordan Walker: .382 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jordan Walker is at a .382 OPS over the last 15 days in 37 at-bats, 0.415 below his .797 season mark. The season line says he has been a solid hitter, and 37 at-bats is a short window for a slide this steep. Expect movement back up, and against Milwaukee a cold two weeks can leave his props cheaper than his season deserves.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

Freddie Freeman: .448 OPS in Last 15 Days

Freddie Freeman has a .448 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 at-bats, 0.352 below his .800 season baseline. Hitters with an .800 season line rarely stay this cold for long, so the number is more likely to climb than hold. Against the Giants, the season mark is the sturdier read on what he brings.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

IND: 26.5 points per game to HOU's 18.5

HOU is at 18.5 points per game over 2 games; IND is at 26.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 23.8 over 17 games and IND at 27.4 over 17 games.

BAL: 31:18 time of possession per game to DAL's 25:56

BAL is at 31:18 time of possession per game over 2 games; DAL is at 25:56 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 29:11 over 17 games and DAL at 30:48 over 17 games.

WSH: 0.5 sack yards lost per game to SEA's 14

SEA is at 14 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season SEA was at 14.3 over 17 games and WSH at 12.5 over 17 games.

IU: 48.3 points per game to NU's 37.5

Indiana is scoring 48.3 a game over three games, right in line with 41.6 over 16 games last season. Northwestern's 37.5 comes from just two games and sits far above its 23.4 from last year, so it is the number more likely to come down. Indiana's offense has a full season behind it, and Northwestern's early scoring has not yet been tested at that level.

Hector Rodriguez: .176 OPS in Last 15 Days

Hector Rodriguez has a .176 OPS over the last 15 days in 34 at-bats, 0.449 below his .625 season mark. That baseline is low, so even a bounce back leaves a below-average bat. The number should rise, but only toward .625, which limits his ceiling against Cincinnati either way.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

CIN: 5.95 yards per pass attempt to PIT's 4.05

CIN is at 5.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; PIT is at 4.05 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CIN was at 5.81 over 17 games and PIT at 5.99 over 17 games.

TEN: 35 penalty yards per game to NYG's 67

TEN is at 35 penalty yards per game over 2 games; NYG is at 67 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season TEN was at 59.5 over 17 games and NYG at 63.2 over 17 games.

Mike Evans

Hip · Limited practice · Questionable

Brock Bowers

Knee · Did not practice · Questionable

Martin Emerson Jr.

Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

ATL: 22.7 points allowed per game to GB's 30.3

ATL is at 22.7 points allowed per game over 3 games; GB is at 30.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ATL was at 23.6 over 17 games and GB at 21.2 over 17 games.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Kwity Paye

Illness · Limited practice · Questionable

Marvin Mims Jr.

Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

Colby Parkinson

Knee · Did not practice · Questionable

Charvarius Ward

Groin · Full practice · Questionable

Trent Brown

Knee, Wrist · Full practice · Questionable

Ryan Miller

Hip, Back · Full practice · Questionable

Adonai Mitchell

Finger · Limited practice · Questionable

JuJu Brents

Knee · Full practice · Questionable

Tyson Campbell

Ankle, Not injury related - other · Limited practice · Questionable

Grant Delpit

Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

Cor'Dale Flott

Quadricep · Limited practice · Questionable

Trey Lance

Groin · Limited practice · Questionable

Lawrence Butler: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days

Lawrence Butler has a 1.037 OPS in 46 at-bats over the last 15 days, against a .720 season mark. That season line is an average bat, so this looks like a hot stretch that should cool. He has 17 home runs, and against Houston the recent form is a reason to check his props without rewriting his profile.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB

Tyler Nubin

Calf · Limited practice · Questionable

Yainer Diaz: 1.083 OPS in Last 15 Days

Diaz is up 0.32 on his .763 season OPS over the last 15 days, in 45 AB: a solid hitter running hot for a couple of weeks. His 14 home runs point to more modest power than the recent line shows. Expect some pullback toward the season number. Against a 1.5 total-bases line in Oakland, the question is how much of the streak carries into tonight.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Brian Burns

Ankle · Did not practice · Questionable

Javon Hargrave

Knee, Concussion · Limited practice · Questionable

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Caleb Williams is the projected starting quarterback for CHI

Through 2 games in 2026, Caleb Williams threw for 407 passing yards, completed 65.5% of his passes and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3942 yards, completed 58.1% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 27-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in. Caleb Williams is also listed d for this matchup.

Billy Bowman Jr.

Achilles · Full practice · Questionable

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Anthony Campbell

Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Keon Coleman

Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

Rodney Shelley

Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

Ed Oliver

Hip · Full practice · Questionable

Ar'maj Reed-Adams

Elbow · Limited practice · Questionable

DJ Moore

Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

Deonte Banks

Calf · Limited practice · Questionable

Tyjae Spears

Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

Jamel Dean

Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

Joey Porter Jr.

Not injury related - other · Limited practice · Questionable

Michael Pittman Jr.

Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

Jaylen Warren

Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

Joseph Ossai

Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

Brandon Pili

Concussion, Neck · Limited practice · Questionable

Craig Woodson

Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

Jalen Coker

Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

Xavier Legette

Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

LAR: 38.9% third-down conversion rate to DEN's 26.1%

LAR is at 38.9% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 26.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 39.6% over 17 games and DEN at 41.2% over 17 games.

CAR: 21 first downs per game to CLE's 14.5

CAR is at 21 first downs per game over 2 games; CLE is at 14.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 18 over 17 games and CLE at 15.8 over 17 games.

Eli Raridon

Thigh · Did not practice · Questionable

Roy Lopez

Groin · Limited practice · Questionable

Max Melton

Toe · Limited practice · Questionable

Cairo Santos (PK) is questionable for CHI

Santos (right hip) didn't practice Friday. Reported Sep 25.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR) is reserve-dnr for SF

Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Sunday that he's not viewing Aiyuk as an option for the 49ers while the club contends with multiple injuries at receiver, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 21.

Reggie Gilliam (FB) is questionable for NE

Gilliam (knee) was a limited participant at the Patriots' practice Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Brandon Coleman (G) is questionable for WSH

Coach Dan Quinn said Monday that "all signs look good to go" regarding Coleman's (finger) odds of being available in Week 3, JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington reports. Reported Sep 22.

Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA

Head coach Mike Macdonald said Friday that Charbonnet (knee) returning to practice next week is potentially "on the table," Corbin Smith of SI.com reports. Reported Sep 25.

Tate Ratledge (G) is questionable for DET

Ratledge (elbow) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 25.

Christian Mahogany (G) is questionable for DET

Mahogany (hip) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. Reported Sep 25.

Zay Flowers

Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

Aidan O'Connell

Not injury related - personal matter · Did not practice · Questionable

Brice Turang: 1.156 OPS in Last 15 Days

Brice Turang has a 1.156 OPS in 39 at-bats over the last 15 days against .810 for the season. His season mark was already solid, so his floor is higher than most hot hitters, though a 39 at-bat run will likely come down some. With 20 home runs and a total-bases line of 1.5 against St. Louis, he is a good hitter in form.

P 3-for-5, 5 TB

HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to IND's 1

HOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; IND is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and IND at 0.82 over 17 games.

BAL games have gone UNDER 4 straight

Baltimore games have averaged 5.5 combined runs over four straight unders, against totals around 6.8. Tonight's number at Yankee Stadium is 6.5, only slightly lower. Four games is a small sample, and the sheet gives no pitcher or lineup reason for the quiet scoring. The gap between 5.5 and 6.5 is the case for the under, and the short sample is the reason to keep it modest.

P final total 12 vs 6.5

BOS games have gone UNDER 4 straight

Boston's last four games have averaged 3.3 total runs against totals around 6.8. Four games is a tiny sample, and scoring that low rarely lasts. Tonight's total against Chicago is 6.5, only slightly lower, so the market has barely adjusted. The question is whether the quiet bats are real or a four-game blip the number is right to mostly ignore.

P final total 7 vs 6.5

Freddy Peralta: 1.08 ERA over his last 3 starts

Freddy Peralta has a 1.08 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 16.2 innings in his last 3 starts, against a 4.56 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the season. He has only 12 strikeouts in that span, so a lot of this is weak contact finding gloves, which rarely lasts. Lines priced off 4.56 may undersell his current form, but the low strikeout count caps how far to lean on it.

P 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K

James Wood: .568 OPS in Last 15 Days

James Wood has a .568 OPS over the last 15 days in 43 at-bats, 0.322 below an .890 season mark. That .890 makes him one of the better bats around, and a 43 at-bat dip is unlikely to define him. Against the Mets, a market that leans on the recent number may undersell him.

P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB

PIT: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to CIN's 25%

CIN is at 25% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; PIT is at 0% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

MIN: 20 penalty yards per game to TB's 50.5

MIN is at 20 penalty yards per game over 2 games; TB is at 50.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season MIN was at 52.1 over 17 games and TB at 43.4 over 17 games.

HOU: 3 fourth-down attempts per game to IND's 1.5

HOU is at 3 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; IND is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 1.12 over 17 games and IND at 1.59 over 17 games.

LAC @ BUF carries a 50.5 market total

At 50.5, this sits 6.5 points above the 44 median across 16 games, so the market sees an above-average scoring day in Buffalo. The gap is smaller than the slate's biggest totals, which leaves room for either direction. It cracks if one offense controls the clock and shortens the game, cutting the number of possessions both teams get.

LAR: 113 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 157.5

The Rams have allowed 113 rushing yards a game, while Denver has given up 157.5, a big gap on the ground. It is two games each, and the opposing backfields aren't on the sheet. If Denver's run defense keeps leaking like this, the Rams have a clear path to lean on the ground game and control the clock.

NYG: 1 sack yards lost per game to TEN's 13.5

TEN is at 13.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season TEN was at 26.1 over 17 games and NYG at 13.5 over 17 games.

CAL: 2.33 fourth-down attempts per game to CLEM's 0.33

CLEM is at 0.33 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; CAL is at 2.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CLEM was at 2.77 over 13 games and CAL at 1.77 over 13 games.

Dylan Lonergan is RUTG's projected starter

Dylan Lonergan is RUTG's projected starting quarterback. Lonergan returned from a one-week injury absence to start and play the entirety of Rutgers' Sept 19 loss to USC (252 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT). Reporting through Sept 22 (three days before the Howard game) references his return but no article explicitly confirms his start specifically for the Sept 25 Howard game. 2026 line: 494 passing yards, 52.3% completions, 7.60 yards per attempt, 5-5 TD-INT over 2 games.

Ja'Shawn Scroggins is HOW's projected starter

Ja'Shawn Scroggins is HOW's projected starting quarterback. Scroggins has been Howard's starting QB through the 2026 season, including the Sept 12 loss at Indiana (8-15, 43 yds, 1 INT) and is referenced with season passing stats (467 yds, 4 TDs) in a Sept 22 preview of the Rutgers matchup, but no article explicitly confirms him as starter for the Sept 25 Rutgers game specifically. 2026 line: 467 passing yards, 45.6% completions, 5.91 yards per attempt, 4-2 TD-INT over 3 games.

DAL: 85.7% red-zone scoring rate to BAL's 66.7%

BAL is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DAL is at 85.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 47.5% over 17 games and DAL at 56.9% over 17 games.

PIT: 25% third downs allowed to CIN's 37%

CIN is at 37% third downs allowed over 2 games; PIT is at 25% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

Cristopher Sanchez: 6.27 ERA over his last 3 starts

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed 24 hits and 13 earned runs in 18.2 innings over his last 3 starts, still working deep but with more balls finding holes. His 2.93 season ERA says he has been very good, and three starts is a small sample. If the market overreacts to the slump against Tampa Bay, he may be priced below his season level.

P 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 K

David Peterson: 1.65 ERA over his last 3 starts

David Peterson has a 1.65 ERA over 16.1 innings in his last 3 starts, with 18 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP against 1.51 on the season. More strikeouts and fewer baserunners point to real improvement. Three starts is a short sample next to a 4.96 season ERA, so lines built on that season number may lag his current form at Fenway.

P 5 IP, 0 ER, 6 K

GB: 202 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 263

ATL is at 263 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; GB is at 202 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

ACC game: CLEM 1-0, CAL 1-0 in conference

Clemson and Cal have each played one ACC game so far, and each won it, so this is a meeting of two unbeaten conference teams. One game apiece says very little about how either team wins in league play, and both records will move fast from here. For a bettor, the loser of this one falls to 1-1 in the ACC, so weigh this game on the matchup itself rather than on either team's 1-0 conference start.

NFC WEST game: ARI 0-1, SF 1-0 in the division

These two share the NFC WEST. ARI is 0-1 against it, SF is 1-0. Current-2026 standings through 2026-09-24.

KC: 162.5 passing yards allowed per game to MIA's 223.5

KC is at 162.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 223.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

HOW @ RUTG carries a 56.5 market total

The market expects points in this one: 56.5 sits 6 above the 50.5 median, and that median comes from only 3 games with posted totals on this slate, so the comparison is thin. A number that high usually means the book expects both offenses to finish drives rather than trade punts. For it to crack, one side has to stall early and turn this into a slower game. If you look at this total, the question is whether both teams can keep scoring for four quarters.

MIN: 14.3% red-zone scoring allowed to TB's 37.5%

MIN is at 14.3% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; TB is at 37.5% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

CHI: 31 points per game to PHI's 24

PHI is at 24 points per game over 2 games; CHI is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season PHI was at 22.3 over 17 games and CHI at 25.9 over 17 games.

NYG: 61.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 50

TEN is at 50 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NYG is at 61.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and NYG at 63.8 over 17 games.

LV: 29.2% third downs allowed to NO's 40.9%

Las Vegas has let offenses convert only 29.2% of third downs, while New Orleans has allowed 40.9%. Both come from two games, and third-down rates bounce around a lot early. The Raiders getting off the field has been the difference so far, so shorter Saints drives are the scenario this number points to.

NO: 75 offensive plays per game to LV's 63.5

LV is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NO is at 75 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LV was at 55.8 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.

Seiya Suzuki (bats R) draws Alec Gamboa (LHP), batting 2nd

Suzuki has been a much more dangerous hitter against lefties, with a .982 OPS against them compared to .782 against right-handers. The lefty number comes from 133 at-bats, a real sample but about a third the size of his 402 against righties, so it can drift some without meaning the edge is gone. Batting 2nd, he gets extra trips to the plate against Gamboa before the bullpen shows up. For a bettor, his overall season line likely undersells him in this particular spot.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB

NE: 8 points allowed per game to JAX's 15

NE is at 8 points allowed per game over 2 games; JAX is at 15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and JAX at 19.8 over 17 games.

Mets are 6-4 vs Nationals this season

The Mets are 6-4 against Washington, and the last meeting was a 4-3 game. Ten games at that split is close to even, and the sheet shows no matchup edge. Tonight's starters are the story.

Alaric Jackson (OT) is questionable for LAR

LAR lists Alaric Jackson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

TEN @ NYG carries a 38.5 market total

A 38.5 total is 5.5 points below the 44 slate median, so the market expects a slow, grinding game with few easy points at New York. With no other facts on the sheet, the number is the whole argument. It breaks if a turnover or special teams score hands one side a short field, since low totals leave little room for a surprise touchdown.

Jacob Parrish (CB) is questionable for TB

TB lists Jacob Parrish as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Brian O'Neill (OT) is questionable for MIN

MIN lists Brian O'Neill as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Hjalte Froholdt (C) is questionable for ARI

ARI lists Hjalte Froholdt as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.

Deane Leonard (CB) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Deane Leonard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Rodney Shelley (CB) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Rodney Shelley as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Rashawn Slater (OT) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Rashawn Slater as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

LAR: 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate to DEN's 0%

LAR is at 33.3% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; DEN is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 66.7% over 17 games and DEN at 50% over 17 games.

Robert Hainsey (C) is questionable for JAX

JAX lists Robert Hainsey as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Cole Van Lanen (OT) is questionable for JAX

JAX lists Cole Van Lanen as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Morgan Moses (OT) is questionable for NE

NE lists Morgan Moses as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah (DE) is questionable for KC

KC lists Felix Anudike-Uzomah as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

JuJu Brents (CB) is questionable for MIA

MIA lists JuJu Brents as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Micah Robinson (CB) is questionable for TEN

TEN lists Micah Robinson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.

Tytus Howard (OT) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Tytus Howard as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Ahmed Hassanein (DE) is questionable for DET

DET lists Ahmed Hassanein as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Dorance Armstrong (DE) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Dorance Armstrong as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Charles Omenihu (DE) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Charles Omenihu as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Trent Brown (OT) is questionable for HOU

HOU lists Trent Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Dodgers are 6-4 vs Giants this season

The Dodgers are 6-4 against San Francisco, the last meeting a 3-1 game. That split is close to even, and the sheet has no starters or venues to explain it. In San Francisco tonight, price the pitching first.

Carlton Davis III (CB) is questionable for NE

NE lists Carlton Davis III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Logan Hall (DE) is questionable for HOU

HOU lists Logan Hall as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Dametrious Crownover (OT) is questionable for NE

NE lists Dametrious Crownover as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Kwity Paye (DE) is questionable for LV

LV lists Kwity Paye as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.

L'Jarius Sneed (CB) is questionable for KC

KC lists L'Jarius Sneed as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

LAR: 7.95 yards per pass attempt to DEN's 6.45

LAR is at 7.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DEN is at 6.45 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 7.24 over 17 games and DEN at 5.99 over 17 games.

RUTG: 25.7 points per game to HOW's 17.3

HOW is at 17.3 points per game over 3 games; RUTG is at 25.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOW was at 19.8 over 12 games and RUTG at 28.7 over 12 games.

DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to NYJ's 3

NYJ is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; DET is at 4.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NYJ was at 2.24 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.

TEN: 4.55 yards per rush attempt to NYG's 3.5

TEN is at 4.55 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; NYG is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season TEN was at 4.19 over 17 games and NYG at 4.31 over 17 games.

TB: 4 red-zone trips per game to MIN's 2.5

MIN is at 2.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; TB is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season MIN was at 3 over 17 games and TB at 2.94 over 17 games.

LAR: 243 team passing yards per game to DEN's 201.5

LAR is at 243 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DEN is at 201.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 268.1 over 17 games and DEN at 223.9 over 17 games.

CIN: 3 red-zone trips per game to PIT's 1.5

CIN is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CIN was at 3.18 over 17 games and PIT at 3 over 17 games.

KC: 46.7% third-down conversion rate to MIA's 36%

KC is at 46.7% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 36% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season KC was at 37.4% over 17 games and MIA at 34.9% over 17 games.

CAR: 96.5 rushing yards per game to CLE's 65.5

CAR is at 96.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; CLE is at 65.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 116.3 over 17 games and CLE at 97 over 17 games.

TB: 5.2 yards per play to MIN's 4.35

Tampa Bay gains more per snap than Minnesota over 2 games, and both teams sit close to last season: the Bucs were at 5.12, the Vikings at 4.82. Minnesota's 4.35 is the softer number and has some room to rise. Because both offenses look like last season, the gap is more believable than most 2-game splits, and it points to Tampa Bay moving the ball more easily at home.

CIN: 50% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 33.3%

CIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; PIT is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CIN was at 66.7% over 17 games and PIT at 58.8% over 17 games.

BUF: 4 red-zone trips per game to LAC's 2.5

LAC is at 2.5 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; BUF is at 4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAC was at 3.35 over 17 games and BUF at 3.82 over 17 games.

Jonathon Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for CAR

Brooks is expected to undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a core-muscle injury and is likely to miss at least six weeks, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 23.

Mason Graham (DT) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Mason Graham as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Quincy Williams (LB) is questionable for CLE

CLE lists Quincy Williams as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Omar Cooper Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

The Jets are expected to place Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 19.

Arian Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

Smith (knee) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports. Reported Sep 23.

David Bailey (LB) is questionable for NYJ

NYJ lists David Bailey as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Chris Jones (DT) is questionable for KC

KC lists Chris Jones as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

James Williams Sr. (LB) is questionable for TEN

TEN lists James Williams Sr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Solomon Thomas (DT) is questionable for TEN

TEN lists Solomon Thomas as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Shelby Harris (DT) is questionable for NYG

NYG lists Shelby Harris as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Tyler Owens (S) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Tyler Owens as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Percy Butler (S) is questionable for WSH

WSH lists Percy Butler as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Andrew Billings (DT) is questionable for ARI

ARI lists Andrew Billings as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

De'Zhaun Stribling (WR) is on injured reserve for SF

The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.

Jake Golday (LB) is questionable for MIN

MIN lists Jake Golday as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Jalen Redmond (DT) is questionable for MIN

MIN lists Jalen Redmond as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Anthony Nelson (LB) is questionable for TB

TB lists Anthony Nelson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Teddye Buchanan (LB) is questionable for BAL

BAL lists Teddye Buchanan as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Nnamdi Madubuike (DT) is questionable for BAL

BAL lists Nnamdi Madubuike as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Trey Hendrickson (LB) is questionable for BAL

BAL lists Trey Hendrickson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Malaki Starks (S) is questionable for BAL

BAL lists Malaki Starks as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Zion Young (LB) is questionable for BAL

BAL lists Zion Young as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Folorunso Fatukasi (DT) is questionable for LV

LV lists Folorunso Fatukasi as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Isaiah Stalbird (LB) is questionable for NO

NO lists Isaiah Stalbird as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Nathan Shepherd (DT) is questionable for NO

NO lists Nathan Shepherd as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Ronnie Rivers (RB) is on injured reserve for LAR

The Rams placed Rivers (calf) on their injured reserve list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

HOU: 32:44 time of possession per game to IND's 28:50

HOU is at 32:44 time of possession per game over 2 games; IND is at 28:50 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 31:49 over 17 games and IND at 29:37 over 17 games.

LV: 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 136.5

LV is at 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 136.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

TEN: 1.5 sacks recorded per game to NYG's 0.5

TEN is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; NYG is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

DEN: 2 sacks recorded per game to LAR's 1

LAR is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DEN is at 2 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

CHI: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to PHI's 1.5

PHI is at 1.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; CHI is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

WSH: 0.5 sacks taken per game to SEA's 1.5

SEA is at 1.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; WSH is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season SEA was at 2.08 over 17 games and WSH at 2.31 over 17 games.

LAR: 38.5% third downs allowed to DEN's 48.3%

The Rams have allowed opponents to convert 38.5% of third downs, while Denver has let them convert 48.3%. Two games each is a thin sample, and these rates swing fast. If Denver keeps struggling to get off the field, Rams drives will run longer, which pairs with the Broncos' soft run defense numbers.

LAR: 4.6 yards per play allowed to DEN's 5.4

The Rams allow 4.6 yards per play and Denver allows 5.4, so the Rams have been the stingier defense. That is two games each, with no opponent detail on the sheet. The gap is modest, and early per-play numbers drift, so this reads as a slight edge for the Rams' defense in this matchup.

IU: 5.3 points allowed a game to NU's 12.5

Both defenses are stingy early, but Indiana is allowing 5.3 points a game over 3 games to Northwestern's 12.5 over just 2. Each side is well ahead of last season, when Indiana allowed 11.7 and Northwestern 19.8. Early schedules can flatter these numbers, and 2 games is a thin sample for Northwestern. Both should rise, but Indiana's base was already strong, so a low-scoring game with Northwestern struggling to find points fits the evidence best.

CLEM @ CAL books span 1.5 points

The current home spread ranges from 0 to +1.5 across 5 sportsbooks. That is book disagreement, not a public-bet or sharp-money signal.

Dino Kaliakmanis (WR) is doubtful for RUTG

Wide receiver listed doubtful on Rutgers' Sept 17 injury report ahead of the USC game. Rutgers Injury Report: An important player makes the list (2026-09-17)

IU -19.5 → -20.5

Gary's number was -19.5; the same book now shows -20.5.

Za'Darius Smith

Did not practice

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Terrel Bernard

Did not practice

Omar Cooper Jr.

Ankle · Did not practice

Grover Stewart

Did not practice

Dalton Schultz

Did not practice

Keenan Allen

Did not practice

DeForest Buckner

Did not practice

Ryan Neuzil

Did not practice

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Jake Matthews

Did not practice

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Jonathan Taylor

Did not practice

Logan Hall

Did not practice

Ronnie Harrison Jr.

Hamstring · Did not practice

Jaxson Dart

Knee - Meniscus · Did not practice

Paulson Adebo

Knee · Did not practice

Dexter Lawrence II

Did not practice

Samaje Perine

Did not practice

Anthony Bradford

Knee · Did not practice

Eddy Pineiro

Did not practice

De'Zhaun Stribling

Ankle · Did not practice

Christian Darrisaw

Did not practice

Jauan Jennings

Personal · Did not practice

T.J. Tampa

Knee · Did not practice

Zach Wood

Calf · Did not practice

Byron Young

Did not practice

Aaron Donald

Did not practice

Cairo Santos

Hip · Did not practice

Joe Thuney

Did not practice

Dallas Goedert

Knee - MCL · Did not practice

Caleb Williams

Hamstring · Did not practice

Hollywood Brown

Ankle · Did not practice

Tyson Bagent

Concussion · Did not practice

MIN (2-0) at TB (0-2)

Minnesota is 2-0 and +23 with a road win already, while Tampa Bay is 0-2 but only -10 and lost its lone home game. A team losing twice by modest margins is usually closer to average than 0-2 sounds, so Tampa's record may undersell it. The 33-point gap leans on two games. Minnesota's momentum is real, but this is a spot where the winless team's record looks worse than its play.

SEA (2-0) at WSH (0-2)

Seattle is 2-0 and +27, and it has already won on the road once. Washington is 0-2 and -19, and it hosts for the first time this season. That 46-point gap is built on two games each, so both numbers should drift toward the middle as the season goes on. Seattle arrives with proven road form and momentum, which makes it the steadier side of this spot, while Washington's home debut leaves some room for an unknown.

KC (2-0) at MIA (0-2)

Kansas City is 2-0 and +24, while Miami is 0-2 and -36, a 60-point swing in scoring margin. Neither team has played in this spot yet: this is the Chiefs' first road game and the Dolphins' first home game. Two games rarely settle a gap that wide, and Miami's margin likely includes at least one rough result. The form clearly favors Kansas City, but a first home game can give a winless team more fight than its record shows.

CAR (1-1) at CLE (1-1)

These teams share a 1-1 record, but the margins split sharply: Carolina is +9 and Cleveland -20. Carolina won its only road game, and Cleveland plays its first home game here after both teams won last time out. A 29-point gap across two games often comes from one blowout, so Cleveland's number may look worse than the team is. The matching records make this a closer spot than the margins suggest.

LAC (0-2) at BUF (2-0)

The Chargers are 0-2 and -24, and this is their first road trip of the season. Buffalo is 2-0 and +15, including a win in its only home game. The 39-point gap comes from two games per side, so it reflects early results more than settled quality. Buffalo at home with momentum is the stronger spot on paper, but an 0-2 team's record can undersell it when the losses came against tough opponents.

DET has 3 more days of rest

Detroit is rested and at home with 8 days since its last game, while the Jets come in on 5 days and have to travel. That 3-day gap usually shows up in recovery and install time: the shorter team tends to lean on a simpler plan. This is a fixed schedule fact. It matters most if the Jets are carrying injuries that a few extra days would have helped.

BUF has 3 more days of rest

Buffalo gets a clear calendar edge at home: 8 days since its last game against 5 for the Chargers, who also have to travel on the short week. Teams in the Chargers' spot usually run lighter practices and trim the game plan, while Buffalo had extra time to rest bodies and prepare. The gap is set by the schedule and will not move. Check the injury report for Chargers players who were banged up last game, since 5 days is less time to get them back.

Tuli Tuipulotu (LB) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Tuli Tuipulotu as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Patrick Jones II (LB) is questionable for CAR

CAR lists Patrick Jones II as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

Bobby Brown III (DT) is questionable for CAR

CAR lists Bobby Brown III as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.

RUTG: 38.2% third-down conversion rate to HOW's 27.1%

HOW is at 27.1% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; RUTG is at 38.2% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOW was at 38.3% over 12 games and RUTG at 42.5% over 12 games.

CAL: 22.3 first downs per game to CLEM's 16.7

CLEM is at 16.7 first downs per game over 3 games; CAL is at 22.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CLEM was at 21 over 13 games and CAL at 20 over 13 games.

NU: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to IU's 66.7%

NU is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; IU is at 66.7% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NU was at 58.6% over 13 games and IU at 55.6% over 16 games.

WSH: 67 offensive plays per game to SEA's 57.5

SEA is at 57.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; WSH is at 67 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season SEA was at 59.7 over 17 games and WSH at 58.2 over 17 games.

CIN: 213.5 team passing yards per game to PIT's 175

CIN is at 213.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; PIT is at 175 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CIN was at 235.6 over 17 games and PIT at 202.4 over 17 games.

DET: 4.15 yards per rush attempt to NYJ's 3.2

NYJ is at 3.2 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; DET is at 4.15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NYJ was at 4.53 over 17 games and DET at 4.52 over 17 games.

SF: 4.65 yards per rush attempt to ARI's 3.75

ARI is at 3.75 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; SF is at 4.65 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ARI was at 4.25 over 17 games and SF at 3.81 over 17 games.

CHI: 6.05 yards per play to PHI's 5.35

Chicago gains more per snap through 2 games, and its 6.05 is up from 5.71 last season. Philadelphia's 5.35 is almost exactly its 5.27 from last year, so the Eagles look like themselves while the Bears are running hotter. Two games is a small sample and Chicago is the side more likely to come back down. At home, the Bears' efficiency is the thing to test against an Eagles offense that has been steady.

PHI: 71.4% red-zone scoring rate to CHI's 57.1%

PHI is at 71.4% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; CHI is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season PHI was at 70.5% over 17 games and CHI at 58.2% over 17 games.

LAR: 16.5 points allowed per game to DEN's 22

LAR is at 16.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 22 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 20.4 over 17 games and DEN at 18.3 over 17 games.

CAR: 61 offensive plays per game to CLE's 52

CAR is at 61 offensive plays per game over 2 games; CLE is at 52 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 59.5 over 17 games and CLE at 60.6 over 17 games.

Noah Sewell (LB) is pup-r for CHI

The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell (Achilles) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 23.

Shemar Turner (DT) is pup-r for CHI

The Bears opened the 21-day practice window for Turner (knee) on Wednesday, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 24.

John Simpson (G) is questionable for BAL

BAL lists John Simpson as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Brenden Schooler (S) is nfi-r for NE

The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window for Schooler (back) on Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Brady Russell (FB) is questionable for SEA

SEA lists Brady Russell as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Tucker Addington (LS) is questionable for MIA

MIA lists Tucker Addington as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

M.J. Stewart (S) is pup-r for HOU

The Texans designated Stewart (quadriceps) for return from their reserve/PUP list Wednesday. Reported Sep 24.

Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G) is questionable for BUF

BUF lists Ar'maj Reed-Adams as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

Cole Strange (G) is questionable for LAC

LAC lists Cole Strange as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 23.

RUTG: 39.4% third downs allowed to HOW's 50%

Rutgers lets opponents convert 39.4% of third downs over three games, and Howard allows 50% over the same number of games. Howard giving up half its third downs means drives keep going, which lets the Rutgers offence stay on the field and control the clock. Three games is a small sample for both, but the gap is wide enough that Rutgers sustaining drives is the likely script at home.

SEA: 5.8 yards per play to WSH's 5.1

Seattle averages a bit more per play over 2 games, and both teams trail last season's marks of 5.98 and 5.53. The Seahawks' last game got a big lift from an 82-yard Drew Lock touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so that average leans on one snap. Washington had 4 plays of 20+ yards with both Mariota and Jayden Daniels throwing to McLaurin. This gap is small and both sides look likely to drift back up toward last season, so the average alone does not favor either offense much.

WSH: 157 rushing yards per game to SEA's 129.5

SEA is at 129.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; WSH is at 157 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season SEA was at 123.3 over 17 games and WSH at 134.7 over 17 games.

IU: 5.3 points allowed per game to NU's 12.5

NU is at 12.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; IU is at 5.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NU was at 19.8 over 13 games and IU at 11.7 over 16 games.

BUF: 4.85 yards per rush attempt to LAC's 3.95

LAC is at 3.95 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; BUF is at 4.85 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAC was at 4.58 over 17 games and BUF at 4.97 over 17 games.

RUTG: 37.7 penalty yards per game to HOW's 64.3

HOW is at 64.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; RUTG is at 37.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOW was at 71.9 over 12 games and RUTG at 32.6 over 12 games.

NE: 17.4% third downs allowed to JAX's 26.3%

NE is at 17.4% third downs allowed over 2 games; JAX is at 26.3% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

LAR: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to DEN's 0.5

LAR is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 1.76 over 17 games and DEN at 1.18 over 17 games.

Matt Shaw (bats R) draws Alec Gamboa (LHP), batting 6th

Shaw has an .834 OPS against lefties and .639 against right-handers, but both come from small samples, 77 and 87 at-bats. A gap built on that little can shrink fast. From the 6th spot he gets fewer trips than the top of the order. Gamboa is a friendlier draw than his overall line suggests, with the sample size as the reason to keep expectations modest.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

PHI: 37.5 penalty yards per game to CHI's 57.5

PHI is at 37.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; CHI is at 57.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season PHI was at 63.1 over 17 games and CHI at 57.1 over 17 games.

BAL: 254 team passing yards per game to DAL's 220.5

BAL is at 254 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DAL is at 220.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 175.6 over 17 games and DAL at 266.3 over 17 games.

SEA: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to WSH's 1

SEA is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; WSH is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season SEA was at 0.71 over 17 games and WSH at 1.53 over 17 games.

CAL +2.5 → +2.5

Gary's number was 2.5; the same book now shows 2.5.

LAC: 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game to BUF's 0.5

LAC is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; BUF is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAC was at 1.24 over 17 games and BUF at 1.88 over 17 games.

IU: 27.3% third downs allowed to NU's 37.5%

NU is at 37.5% third downs allowed over 2 games; IU is at 27.3% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

LAC: 26 points allowed per game to BUF's 31

LAC is at 26 points allowed per game over 2 games; BUF is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAC was at 20 over 17 games and BUF at 21.5 over 17 games.

KC: 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game to MIA's 1.5

KC is at 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season KC was at 1.88 over 17 games and MIA at 1.35 over 17 games.

LAR: 40% red-zone scoring allowed to DEN's 57.1%

LAR is at 40% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; DEN is at 57.1% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

HOU: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to IND's 66.7%

HOU is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; IND is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

Geno Smith is the projected starting quarterback for NYJ

Through 2 games in 2026, Geno Smith threw for 462 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 7.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3025 yards, completed 67.4% and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt, 19-17 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET

Through 2 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 533 passing yards, completed 67.5% of his passes and averaged 6.92 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF

Through 2 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 492 passing yards, completed 80.4% of his passes and averaged 8.79 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI

Through 2 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 372 passing yards, completed 67.7% of his passes and averaged 5.72 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

Through 2 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 434 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 8.35 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

Through 2 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 386 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 7.02 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Marcus Mariota is the projected starting quarterback for WSH

In his first 2026 game, Marcus Mariota threw for 111 passing yards, completed 68.8% of his passes and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 1695 yards, completed 61.2% and averaged 7.47 yards per attempt, 10-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN

In his first 2026 game, Kyler Murray threw for 18 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

Baker Mayfield is the projected starting quarterback for TB

Through 2 games in 2026, Baker Mayfield threw for 398 passing yards, completed 71% of his passes and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3693 yards, completed 63.2% and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, 26-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE

Through 2 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 443 passing yards, completed 76.9% of his passes and averaged 8.52 yards per attempt. His 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.

Bryce Young is the projected starting quarterback for CAR

Through 2 games in 2026, Bryce Young threw for 648 passing yards, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 8.88 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3011 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, 23-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Josh Allen is the projected starting quarterback for BUF

Through 2 games in 2026, Josh Allen threw for 582 passing yards, completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 9.7 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3668 yards, completed 69.3% and averaged 7.97 yards per attempt, 25-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Justin Herbert is the projected starting quarterback for LAC

Through 2 games in 2026, Justin Herbert threw for 401 passing yards, completed 59.3% of his passes and averaged 7.43 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3727 yards, completed 66.4% and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB

Through 3 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 844 passing yards, completed 52.4% of his passes and averaged 6.81 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Carter Baumler

Baumler's 3.18 ERA is the cleanest line here and ribs are a calendar injury—not structural. He's back today and the bullpen windows close fast in September. If your setup depth is thin, this is the move. Stash if you're thin. Otherwise hold.

Ryan Mountcastle

Mountcastle clears the IL today with a brutal 0.690 OPS in the rearview. We're in late September—your season's nearly dead. Hold him only if you're locked in a playoff race and need a body; otherwise, this is a pass. The oblique needs to stay healthy or he's a liability. Stash only in active playoff races

Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL

Through 2 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 454 passing yards, completed 73.8% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

IND: 4.4 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.6

HOU is at 3.6 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; IND is at 4.4 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and IND at 4.44 over 17 games.

Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV

Through 2 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 413 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO

Through 2 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 662 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 7.36 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN

Through 2 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 419 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN

Through 2 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 461 passing yards, completed 68.2% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL

In his first 2026 game, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 256 passing yards, completed 72% of his passes and averaged 10.24 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 1982 yards, completed 60.1% and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt, 9-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA

In his first 2026 game, Sam Darnold threw for 13 passing yards, completed 50% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU

Through 2 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 627 passing yards, completed 60.2% of his passes and averaged 6.74 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND

Through 2 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 376 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 6.07 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Patrick Mahomes is the projected starting quarterback for KC

Through 2 games in 2026, Patrick Mahomes threw for 566 passing yards, completed 63.5% of his passes and averaged 7.65 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3587 yards, completed 62.7% and averaged 7.14 yards per attempt, 22-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA

Through 2 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 417 passing yards, completed 58% of his passes and averaged 8.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Jameis Winston is the projected starting quarterback for NYG

In his first 2026 game, Jameis Winston threw for 111 passing yards, completed 40.7% of his passes and averaged 4.11 yards per attempt. Last season over 3 games he threw for 567 yards, completed 56.1% and averaged 8.59 yards per attempt, 2-2 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

ATL: 72.7 penalty yards per game to GB's 92

ATL is at 72.7 penalty yards per game over 3 games; GB is at 92 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ATL was at 48.2 over 17 games and GB at 48.1 over 17 games.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of COL @ CHW

A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 7 of 10 sampled CHW games and 9 of 10 sampled COL games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Sean Burke: 5.19 ERA, .265 opponent AVG across 26.0 IP, 2 HR; Tomoyuki Sugano: 6.43 ERA, .316 opponent AVG across 28.0 IP, 10 HR.

P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)

Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN

Through 2 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 323 passing yards, completed 61.5% of his passes and averaged 6.21 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

David Njoku (TE) is on injured reserve for LAC

The Chargers placed Njoku (fibula) on injured reserve Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.

LV (2-0) at NO (1-1)

Las Vegas is 2-0 and +26, with one of those wins on the road. New Orleans is 1-1 but +6, won its last game, and plays its first home game here. The 20-point gap is modest for two games of data, and the Saints' positive margin suggests they have competed. The Raiders bring the better form, but New Orleans is closer to them than the records alone make it look.

ARI @ SF carries a 47.5 market total

The current fanduel total is 47.5, 3.5 points above the 44 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.

Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for LAR

Through 2 games in 2026, Matthew Stafford threw for 482 passing yards, completed 66.1% of his passes and averaged 8.61 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4707 yards, completed 65% and averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, 46-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

RUTG: 117.3 rushing yards per game to HOW's 86

HOW is at 86 rushing yards per game over 3 games; RUTG is at 117.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOW was at 123.3 over 12 games and RUTG at 141 over 12 games.

SEA @ WSH carries a 40.5 market total

A 40.5 total, 3.5 points below the 44 median across 16 games, points to a slightly lower-scoring game in Washington. The gap is small, so this is a mild lean toward defense and not a projected slog. One quick touchdown drive or a defensive score is enough to push it past the number, which makes it a spot where early pace tells you a lot.

NYJ @ DET carries a 47.5 market total

The current fanduel total is 47.5, 3.5 points above the 44 median across 16 games with posted totals on this slate.

Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

Through 2 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 559 passing yards, completed 67.9% of his passes and averaged 9.98 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI

Through 2 games in 2026, Jalen Hurts threw for 467 passing yards, completed 64.5% of his passes and averaged 7.53 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3224 yards, completed 64.8% and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, 25-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT

Through 2 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 408 passing yards, completed 59.5% of his passes and averaged 5.17 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

NYJ (1-1) at DET (1-1)

Both teams are 1-1 and both lost last week, but the Jets are +10 and Detroit is -9. Each team won its only game in this spot, the Jets 1-0 on the road and the Lions 1-0 at home. A 19-point margin gap over two games can come down to one bad afternoon, so Detroit's number may undersell it at home. Matching records and matching splits point to a closer game than the margins suggest.

CHI: 70 offensive plays per game to PHI's 62.5

PHI is at 62.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; CHI is at 70 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season PHI was at 59.4 over 17 games and CHI at 64.9 over 17 games.

CLE: 26.5 points allowed per game to CAR's 31

CAR is at 31 points allowed per game over 2 games; CLE is at 26.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 22.4 over 17 games and CLE at 22.3 over 17 games.

CHI: 31.8% third downs allowed to PHI's 39.3%

PHI is at 39.3% third downs allowed over 2 games; CHI is at 31.8% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

CAL: 30:50 time of possession per game to CLEM's 27:12

CLEM is at 27:12 time of possession per game over 3 games; CAL is at 30:50 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CLEM was at 31:01 over 13 games and CAL at 30:14 over 13 games.

CAR: 8 yards per pass attempt to CLE's 6.95

CAR is at 8 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; CLE is at 6.95 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 5.47 over 17 games and CLE at 4.78 over 17 games.

A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB) is on injured reserve for ATL

Atlanta put Terrell on injured reserve Tuesday with a groin injury, so the cornerback is out for the trip to Green Bay. The sheet does not say who replaces him. For this game, expect the Falcons to use backups at corner against the Packers passing game.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

CAL: 196 passing yards allowed per game to CLEM's 238

Cal is allowing 196 passing yards a game over three games, Clemson 238 over three. A 42-yard gap is modest, and with no opponent details on the sheet it could come down to who each team has faced. Neither secondary has a clear edge yet, so this matchup looks closer through the air than the names suggest, and passing props shouldn't lean hard on either defense.

KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR) is on injured reserve for LAC

The Chargers placed Lambert-Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 15.

Jordan Hancock (CB) is on injured reserve for BUF

The Bills placed Hancock (hamstring) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Sep 26.

Dylan Sampson (RB) is on injured reserve for CLE

Sampson (knee) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 15.

Tim Patrick (WR) is on injured reserve for NYJ

The Jets placed Patrick (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. Reported Sep 12.

Isiah Pacheco (RB) is on injured reserve for DET

Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. Reported Sep 14.

Avonte Maddox (CB) is on injured reserve for DET

The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.

Micheal Clemons (DE) is on injured reserve for IND

Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday. Reported Sep 23.

A.J. Brown (WR) is on injured reserve for NE

Brown, who was officially placed on injured reserve Saturday, is expected to miss about six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 13.

Will Johnson (CB) is on injured reserve for ARI

The Cardinals placed Johnson (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 23.

T.J. Tampa (CB) is on injured reserve for BAL

The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Sep 19.

Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL

Coach Jesse Minter said Lane underwent wrist surgery Wednesday, and the Ravens placed the rookie wide receiver on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports. Reported Sep 16.

Malik Davis (RB) is on injured reserve for DAL

The Cowboys placed Davis (hip) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 12.

Audric Estime (RB) is on injured reserve for NO

The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. Reported Sep 12.

Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for NO

Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 26.

BAL: 60 offensive plays per game to DAL's 53

BAL is at 60 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DAL is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 57.3 over 17 games and DAL at 65.9 over 17 games.

SF: 0 sack yards lost per game to ARI's 7

ARI is at 7 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; SF is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ARI was at 24.9 over 17 games and SF at 10.7 over 17 games.

DET: 77.8% red-zone scoring rate to NYJ's 66.7%

NYJ is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DET is at 77.8% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NYJ was at 44.7% over 17 games and DET at 62.5% over 17 games.

HOU: 24 first downs per game to IND's 20.5

HOU is at 24 first downs per game over 2 games; IND is at 20.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 19 over 17 games and IND at 20.7 over 17 games.

CIN: 19 first downs per game to PIT's 15.5

CIN is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; PIT is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CIN was at 20.7 over 17 games and PIT at 17.7 over 17 games.

LAR: 19 first downs per game to DEN's 15.5

LAR is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; DEN is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 23.3 over 17 games and DEN at 19.6 over 17 games.

ATL (1-2) at GB (1-2)

Both sit at 1-2, but Atlanta is -17 and just won, while Green Bay is -35, just lost and dropped its only home game. Atlanta is 1-1 on the road, so it has shown it can win away from home. Green Bay's margin likely carries one heavy loss, and that 18-point gap can shrink fast. Atlanta has the better recent trend, but Green Bay's first home result is too small a sample to write off the Packers there.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

TB: 75 rushing yards allowed per game to MIN's 100

MIN is at 100 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; TB is at 75 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

BUF: 1 takeaways per game to LAC's 0.5

Buffalo's defense has forced a turnover per game, while the Chargers have averaged 0.5. Over two games that is just a couple of takeaways apart, and turnovers are among the most random stats in football. This gap is too small to lean on for much.

DET: 1.5 takeaways per game to NYJ's 1

NYJ is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; DET is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

IND: 0.5 takeaways per game to HOU's 0

HOU is at 0 takeaways per game over 2 games; IND is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

KC: 1.5 takeaways per game to MIA's 1

KC is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

NYG: 1.5 takeaways per game to TEN's 1

TEN is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

JAX: 1.5 takeaways per game to NE's 1

NE is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

ARI: 1.5 takeaways per game to SF's 1

Arizona has forced 1.5 turnovers a game and San Francisco one. Over two games, that difference is a single takeaway, and turnovers swing on bounces. This one is noise until the sample grows.

CLE: 1 turnover committed per game to CAR's 1.5

CAR is at 1.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; CLE is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 1.35 over 17 games and CLE at 1.47 over 17 games.

CLE: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to CAR's 1

CAR is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; CLE is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CAR was at 0.65 over 17 games and CLE at 0.41 over 17 games.

NYJ: 0 turnovers committed per game to DET's 0.5

NYJ is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NYJ was at 1.35 over 17 games and DET at 0.88 over 17 games.

NYJ: 0 fumbles lost per game to DET's 0.5

NYJ is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DET is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NYJ was at 0.59 over 17 games and DET at 0.41 over 17 games.

HOU: 1 turnover committed per game to IND's 1.5

HOU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; IND is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season HOU was at 0.71 over 17 games and IND at 1.35 over 17 games.

TEN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NYG's 1

TEN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; NYG is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season TEN was at 1.12 over 17 games and NYG at 1 over 17 games.

DAL: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to BAL's 1

BAL is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 1.35 over 17 games and DAL at 1.24 over 17 games.

DAL: 0 fumbles lost per game to BAL's 0.5

BAL is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season BAL was at 0.71 over 17 games and DAL at 0.53 over 17 games.

DEN: 1.5 turnovers committed per game to LAR's 2

LAR is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 0.88 over 17 games and DEN at 1 over 17 games.

DEN: 0.5 fumbles lost per game to LAR's 1

LAR is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DEN is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LAR was at 0.41 over 17 games and DEN at 0.35 over 17 games.

PHI: 1 turnover committed per game to CHI's 1.5

PHI is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; CHI is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season PHI was at 0.88 over 17 games and CHI at 0.65 over 17 games.

WSH: 4.9 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 4.25

SEA is at 4.25 yards per rush attempt over 2 games; WSH is at 4.9 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season SEA was at 4.17 over 17 games and WSH at 4.81 over 17 games.

CLEM: 55.3 penalty yards per game to CAL's 75.3

CLEM is at 55.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; CAL is at 75.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season CLEM was at 42.1 over 13 games and CAL at 64.6 over 13 games.

DET: 5.4 yards per play to NYJ's 4.9

Detroit is ahead by half a yard a play over 2 games, though its 5.4 trails last season's 5.97. The Jets at 4.9 are up from 4.36, and one of their two 20+ yard plays last game was a 34-yard penalty rather than a catch. The Lions had 5 chunk plays last time out, three of them Goff to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 34, 27 and 22. Both teams look like they should drift back toward last season, which would widen this gap in Detroit's favor.

JAX: 5.65 yards per play to NE's 5.15

Jacksonville leads per play over 2 games, but last season was the reverse: New England was at 6.23 and the Jaguars at 5.27. The Patriots showed their big-play side last game with 6 plays of 20+ yards, including a 63-yard Maye to Doubs catch and a 39-yard TreVeyon Henderson touchdown run. Two games is thin, and New England's number looks likelier to climb. In this matchup, the Patriots' explosive plays are the bigger swing factor than Jacksonville's small edge.

KC: 90 rushing yards allowed per game to MIA's 112.5

KC is at 90 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 112.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

TEN: 0 interceptions thrown per game to NYG's 0.5

TEN is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NYG is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season TEN was at 0.47 over 17 games and NYG at 0.59 over 17 games.

ATL: 34.3% third-down conversion rate to GB's 27.8%

ATL is at 34.3% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; GB is at 27.8% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season ATL was at 33.3% over 17 games and GB at 48.8% over 17 games.

P Edge side won; final 35-14

NYJ: 6.9 yards per pass attempt to DET's 6

NYJ is at 6.9 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DET is at 6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season NYJ was at 4.28 over 17 games and DET at 7.09 over 17 games.

NO: 1 interception thrown per game to LV's 1.5

LV is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NO is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 24. Last season LV was at 1.12 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.

Cristopher Sanchez owns a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park and 3.87 everywhere else

Cristopher Sanchez has a 2.21 ERA at home against 3.87 elsewhere, and hitters bat just .233 off him in Philadelphia. The sample is real: 114.0 innings over 18 home games. Citizens Bank Park is no pitcher's park, so the edge looks like his own comfort at home. Tampa Bay gets the sharper version of him, which makes a low Rays run total a reasonable starting point.

P 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 K

Pirates are 2-1 vs Tigers this season

Pittsburgh is 2-1 against Detroit, with a 4-3 win last time. Three games, one decided by a run, says little about tonight. Start with the pitching matchup.

GB: 2.33 sacks recorded per game to ATL's 1.67

ATL is at 1.67 sacks recorded per game over 3 games; GB is at 2.33 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 24.

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Kyler Murray

Limited practice

Harrison Smith

Limited practice

Isaiah Adams

Limited practice

Andrew Billings

Knee · Limited practice

Kaelon Black

Limited practice

Brian Thomas Jr.

Limited practice

LeQuint Allen Jr.

Limited practice

Morgan Moses

Limited practice

Ben Brown

Limited practice

Reggie Gilliam

Limited practice

DaVon Hamilton

Limited practice

Cooper Kupp

Limited practice

Leo Chenal

Limited practice

Odafe Oweh

Limited practice

K'Lavon Chaisson

Limited practice

Tony Pollard

Limited practice

Daniel Bellinger

Limited practice

Chauncey Golston

Limited practice

Andrew Thomas

Limited practice

Edgerrin Cooper

Head · Limited practice

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Tucker Addington

Limited practice

Donovan Jennings

Limited practice

P Edge side lost; final 35-14

Chris Jones

Limited practice

CJ Allen

Limited practice

Will Anderson Jr.

Limited practice

Will McDonald IV

Limited practice

L'Jarius Sneed

Limited practice

Will Shipley

Foot · Limited practice

Tank Bigsby

Abdomen · Limited practice

Tyrique Stevenson Sr.

Hamstring · Limited practice

DeVonta Smith

Hamstring · Limited practice

Jonathan Greenard

Pectoral · Limited practice

Noah Sewell

Achilles · Limited practice

Shemar Turner

Knee - ACL · Limited practice

Kam Curl

Limited practice

Omar Speights

Limited practice

Chris Olave

Limited practice