Angels at Mariners
O/U 6.5 · RL Mariners -1.5 · T-Mobile Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Los Angeles Angels ML +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 7-5
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 21 moves| Market | Opened Sep 25 5:00 AM | Close Sep 25 9:25 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Angels +1.5 (-205) | Angels -1.5 (+170) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (+100) | 6.5 (-115) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Mariners -130 | Mariners -115 | +15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 25 5:00 AM | Angels +1.5 (-205) | 7 (+100) | Mariners -130 · Angels +110 |
| Sep 25 6:00 AM | Angels +1.5 (-200) | 7 (+100) | Mariners -130 · Angels +110 |
| Sep 25 9:00 AM | Angels +1.5 (-200) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -130 · Angels +110 |
| Sep 25 10:41 AM | Angels +1.5 (-220) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 11:06 AM | Angels +1.5 (-225) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 12:00 PM | Angels +1.5 (-220) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 4:22 PM | Angels +1.5 (-225) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 6:15 PM | Angels +1.5 (-220) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 6:22 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 6:25 PM | Angels +1.5 (-225) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 6:25 PM | Angels +1.5 (-225) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 6:30 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-120) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 7:21 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-110) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 7:21 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-110) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 7:25 PM | Angels -1.5 (+180) | 6.5 (-110) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 7:40 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-110) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 7:55 PM | Angels -1.5 (+180) | 6.5 (-110) | Mariners -120 · Angels +100 |
| Sep 25 9:10 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-115) | Mariners -115 · Angels -105 |
| Sep 25 9:10 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-115) | Mariners -115 · Angels -105 |
| Sep 25 9:10 PM | Angels -1.5 (+175) | 6.5 (-115) | Mariners -115 · Angels -105 |
| Sep 25 9:25 PM | Angels -1.5 (+170) | 6.5 (-115) | Mariners -115 · Angels -105 |
| CLOSESep 25 9:25 PM | Angels -1.5 (+170) | 6.5 (-115) | Mariners -115 · Angels -105 |
The read
The roof is shut at T-Mobile Park for Game 2 of the season's final series, and the Angels send Reid Detmers out for the last start of a 204-strikeout season against Bryce Miller. This bet rests on that mound matchup and on a price that barely reflects it. Detmers has a 2.29 ERA over his last 10 starts, with 9 walks in 59 innings. Miller sits at 6.20 over his last 10, with 26 walks and 11 homers in 49.1 innings, and 18 of those walks came in his last 23 innings. Walks plus home runs is a volatile mix against a lineup with Neto and Trout at the top, and Miller has not finished a sixth inning since Aug 12.
The second piece is Seattle's lineup tonight. Raleigh is taking a rest day, and his three-run homer on Sep 14 accounted for every run Seattle scored off Detmers that night. Crawford, who is .444 in 18 AB against Detmers, is also out of the lineup. That leaves Rivas (.153) and Weston Wilson (.210) at the bottom of the order. Seattle still has Arozarena leading off with a .971 OPS against lefties, but the order thins quickly behind him. Seattle's defense sits at -56 OAA and is playing behind a fly-ball starter. That gives the Angels more ways to push runs across than a 6.5 total suggests.
The best case against this bet is the back half of the game. Detmers got the hook at 81 pitches last time, and Suzuki said the club would "take care of him a little bit." That hands innings to an Angels middle relief group that has been rough. Seattle's relief ERA in the tracked window is 3.92 against the Angels' 5.36, and Dominguez has a 0.68 ERA over the last 30 days. Seattle is also 41-37 at home, while the Angels are 27-51 on the road. I'm taking the Angels anyway because Seattle likely has more innings to cover. Criswell and Rucker, its multi-inning arms, both worked yesterday. For Los Angeles, Watson (1.00) and Saucedo (0.00) have been steady at the back over the last 30 days. At even money, I want the clearly better starter against a pitcher who keeps putting runners on for free.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
TEAM RECORD
Mariners 1-7 in Bryce Miller's last 8 starts
1-7Seattle has won once in Bryce Miller's last eight starts and has lost the last three in a row, so the slide is recent. A team record over eight games reflects run support and the bullpen as much as Miller, and the sheet splits out neither. Eight starts is a small sample. At home against the Angels, check whether the Mariners have been scoring for him before leaning on the slide.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 25, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBRYCE MILLERK'S UNDER 6.5
I'm on Bryce Miller under 6.5 strikeouts at -150. The number sits a full strikeout above what he has done all year. He averages 5.4 per start across 20 starts and 5.7 over his last three. His last eight starts, newest first, went 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 3, 5, 5, so he has not reached seven once since early August.
The bigger reason is how short these starts run. Miller has not finished a sixth inning since Aug 12. His pitch counts over that stretch have landed between 65 and 104, and walks have been eating them early: 10 walks over his last three starts, including five in five innings at Oakland. Every free pass costs him pitches that could have gone toward a strikeout, and it pulls the hook closer. This is a club that sent him to the bullpen in late August and has handled him carefully since, in a game with nothing left on the line. To clear this he needs seven strikeouts inside what has lately been 15 to 17 outs, and he has not shown that pace. The plate umpire, Andy Fletcher, calls strikeouts and walks right around the league norm, so there is no help from the zone either way.
The case against me is the Angels lineup. This nine strikes out more often than a typical lineup. Neto has 211 strikeouts on the year, Christian Moore has 46 in 125 at bats, and Teodosio has 23 in 59. Miller's splitter is a real swing and miss pitch, and he threw seven scoreless innings at this same club on July 2. If he gets ahead and stays efficient, a deep outing against this lineup could get there. I'm betting on the recent pattern of short, walk heavy starts over one good night in July.
- GARY'S PICKJHONNY PEREDAH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Jhonny Pereda over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -152. Cal Raleigh is resting, so Pereda gets the start behind the plate and bats seventh against a left-hander. That is the spot where his season has worked. He has a .953 OPS against lefties in 30 plate appearances, against .639 in 63 plate appearances against righties. His last three starts against left-handed starters were two hits with two RBIs off Jacob Lopez, a blank against Jump, and two hits with two RBIs off Patrick Sandoval. Across his season, his quality of contact backs up the average. His expected batting average of .310 sits right alongside the .298 he has actually hit, so the hits are not fluky. This prop only needs one thing to go right: a single, a run scored, or a runner driven in. A contact hitter taking three or four trips to the plate gets there more often than this price suggests.
The case against this is real, and I'm keeping the stake modest. Pereda is a backup catcher with 84 at bats on the year. The split against lefties comes from 30 plate appearances, and he has not batted since Sep 13, so some rust is possible. Reid Detmers has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the break, and right-handed hitters have managed only a .624 OPS off him this season. Pereda has little power, so this prop depends almost entirely on him getting a hit. Hitting seventh also hurts his run chances, with Weston Wilson and Leo Rivas behind him, and it thins out his RBI chances with the bottom of the order in front. I still like a regular contact bat getting a full game against the hand he handles best.
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