Braves at Marlins
O/U 8.5 · RL Braves -1.5 · loanDepot park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Braves ML -118
- Published odds
- -118
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 0-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 13 moves| Market | Opened Sep 25 5:00 AM | Close Sep 25 6:52 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Braves -1.5 (+135) | Braves -1.5 (+143) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8 (-112) | 8 (-112) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Braves -125 | Braves -117 | +8 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 25 5:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (+135) | 8 (-112) | Braves -125 · Marlins +104 |
| Sep 25 6:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (+135) | 8 (-112) | Braves -125 · Marlins +104 |
| Sep 25 9:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (+135) | 8 (-113) | Braves -125 · Marlins +104 |
| Sep 25 10:41 AM | Braves -1.5 (+135) | 8 (-105) | Braves -125 · Marlins +104 |
| Sep 25 11:06 AM | Braves -1.5 (+135) | 8 (-105) | Braves -126 · Marlins +104 |
| Sep 25 12:00 PM | Braves -1.5 (+144) | 8 (-108) | Braves -118 · Marlins -102 |
| Sep 25 12:35 PM | Braves -1.5 (+144) | 8 (-105) | Braves -118 · Marlins -102 |
| Sep 25 3:10 PM | Braves -1.5 (+141) | 8 (-107) | Braves -118 · Marlins -102 |
| Sep 25 3:35 PM | Braves -1.5 (+143) | 8 (-110) | Braves -118 · Marlins -102 |
| Sep 25 5:40 PM | Braves -1.5 (+143) | 8 (-107) | Braves -118 · Marlins -102 |
| Sep 25 5:40 PM | Braves -1.5 (+143) | 8 (-107) | Braves -118 · Marlins -102 |
| Sep 25 6:22 PM | Braves -1.5 (+143) | 8 (-107) | Braves -115 · Marlins -105 |
| Sep 25 6:30 PM | Braves -1.5 (+143) | 8 (-115) | Braves -117 · Marlins -103 |
| CLOSESep 25 6:52 PM | Braves -1.5 (+143) | 8 (-112) | Braves -117 · Marlins -103 |
The read
The NL East champs roll into loanDepot park for the final weekend with their October rotation already set. The Marlins hand the ball to Eury Pérez under a closed roof for Friday's series opener.
My pick rests on Pérez, and the numbers are loud. Over his last five starts he has thrown 21.1 innings and allowed 24 earned runs, 15 walks and 7 home runs. He hasn't gotten past 5.0 innings in any of them despite pitch counts of 92 to 102. This isn't a pitch cap or a string of tough opponents: Washington, Kansas City and the Mets are all in that stretch. Atlanta's regulars are all in the lineup, and the top of the order does its damage on the pitch that has hurt Pérez most. His sinker allows a .366 xwOBA, and Acuña (.448), Baldwin (.421) and Olson (.400) all hit that pitch type hard on solid samples. When Pérez exits early, Miami's pen has to cover four-plus innings. Ralston (24 pitches), Ekness (25) and Vodnik (12) all worked yesterday, and behind the rested top tier sits Zuber, with a 10.32 ERA over the last 30 days.
The best argument against Atlanta is real: nobody knows who pitches after Ray Kerr. Walt Weiss has every reason to protect his leverage arms four days before a Wild Card series. Kerr has never gone beyond 35 pitches, and his 1.76 ERA against a 2.94 xERA is a fragile number. Smith-Shawver threw 41 pitches last night, and Suarez is targeted for Saturday. Miami is 45-33 at home, and Pérez's reverse split (.629 OPS allowed to lefties) blunts part of Atlanta's lineup.
But the market has already paid for all of that. The price slid to -118, roughly 52 percent no-vig, and it treats Atlanta's pitching as a worst-case bullpen relay. Grant Holmes has five full days off, has allowed 7 earned runs over 24.0 innings in the last five outings, and fits the Game 3 tune-up calendar exactly. Fuentes (1.82 ERA) and Iglesias are rested for any late lead. Miami starts Stowers (.821 OPS vs righties) on the bench against the lefty opener, with Serna (.161 xBA) at the bottom of the order. I'd rather lay a short price with the better lineup against a starter in freefall than bank on Atlanta's pen falling apart. Braves on the moneyline.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Eury Perez: 8.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
8.56Eury Perez has put too many runners on lately, a 2.20 WHIP over his last 3 starts against 1.27 on the season, with 13 earned runs in 13.2 innings. The traffic came first and the runs followed. Three starts is a small sample and his 4.14 season ERA is the fairer baseline. Against Atlanta, clean early innings would make the recent stretch look like noise.
FIRST INNING
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
0/10MIA scored in the first inning in 0 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Eury Pérez: 4.18 ERA, .215 opponent AVG across 28.0 IP, 7 HR.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Braves are 8-2 vs Marlins this season
8-2Atlanta has won eight of ten against Miami, the last one an 11-3 blowout. The sheet names no Marlins starters or venues, so the gap is results only. Ten games is a fair sample, but tonight is in Miami and the record says nothing about who is pitching. Size up the starting matchup first and keep the series as background.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 25, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKEURY PEREZPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
Eury Pérez over 1.5 earned runs at -143. Two earned runs cash this ticket, and Pérez has been giving up far more than that for a month. Look at his last five starts: 3.0 innings and 5 earned in Washington, 4.2 and 6 in Kansas City, 4.0 and 5 against the Mets, 5.0 and 3 against the Dodgers, 4.2 and 5 in San Diego. Seven home runs left the yard in that stretch, and 13 of the runs came without one, so he is getting hurt both ways. The damage came against weak lineups and strong ones alike, and it came on full pitch counts in the 92 to 102 range, so no pitch cap explains it.
Tonight he gets a Braves lineup with every regular in it. Olson has 41 homers, Acuña has 7 in September alone, and Riley has homered on back-to-back nights. Pérez has already seen Atlanta twice this year and left both starts with a 7.00 ERA. His career history against individual Braves is thin, with nine or ten plate appearances apiece, so I treat Baldwin going 4 for 9 with two homers off him as color rather than proof. The case rests on his current form and on a line that one swing can clear. The desk rates this park hitter-friendly, the roof is closed, and it's 72 degrees.
The case against is real. His relief outing at Wrigley on Tuesday was sharp: three strikeouts on 14 pitches, 11 of them strikes, fastball at 100. McCullough called it a reminder of how good he is, and a reset like that sometimes carries over. He has been much better at home, with a 3.45 ERA in Miami. Lefties manage only a .629 OPS against him, and Atlanta starts four of them. Albies and Murphy are both ice cold at the bottom of the order. A quick hook with runners on could also leave the damage to Miami's pen. At -143 I'm paying for the bet, but a starter in this kind of slide against this lineup needs to give up only two.
- GARY'S PICKEURY PEREZPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5
Eury Pérez over 1.5 walks at -114. His walk totals by start going back to mid-August read 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3. That stretch includes his good outings: the shutout innings in Cincinnati came with five walks, and the quality start against Washington came with three. Command has been the constant problem, and it has shown up on his good nights and his bad ones. He has 67 walks in 28 starts this season. His last start carried this same number at -196 on the over. Tonight it sits near even money, and I'll take that discount.
The matchup helps at the margins. Plate umpire Adam Hamari has run a slightly wider walk environment than the league this year. Sean Murphy is 0 for 14 over the past week and has still drawn four walks, including two last night. Riley, Yastrzemski and Baldwin all worked walks in the Reds series. Once Pérez is behind in counts, this lineup is willing to take the free base.
The strongest counter is the Braves themselves. They walk less often than most clubs, and tonight's nine is a below-average walk group overall. The Cubs relief outing is the other worry. He pounded the zone there with 11 strikes on 14 pitches, and if that approach carries into a start, the walks dry up. There is also the risk of an early exit. If Atlanta hits him hard in the first three innings, he could be pulled before he faces enough batters to issue a second walk. I still side with the pattern. He hasn't gotten through a start with fewer than two walks since early August, and at this price I'm backing that pattern.
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