Rangers at Twins

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  NICKY LOPEZH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· -165

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Nicky Lopez Under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -165. For the over to cash, Lopez needs two things to happen in the same night: two hits, or a hit plus a run or RBI. His profile makes that a tall ask. He is a slap hitter with one home run and a .309 slugging mark in 230 at bats. His expected stats sit even lower, a .294 expected slug, so there is no hidden damage waiting to show up. When he gets a hit, it is a single, and a single by itself stops at one. The lineup around him works against the counting stats. He hits sixth tonight behind Ezequiel Duran, who is 6 for 48 over the last 15 days. That leaves fewer runners on base for Lopez to drive in. Behind him sit Jake Burger, Evan Carter and Danny Jansen, and all three have been cold, so if he reaches, the bats behind him are unlikely to bring him home. His history against Joe Ryan fits the same pattern: 3 for 14 over his career, all singles, no walks. Late in the game he runs into a Minnesota bullpen that was off Thursday, has nobody working a third straight day, and gave up one earned run across three games in San Francisco. The case against this is the lineup slot. Lopez has spent most of his season hitting ninth, and moving up to sixth could get him an extra plate appearance. He has also been sharp in September, 9 for 26, and Ryan has been hit hard since coming off the injured list. Lefties have hit him better than righties this year. If Ryan leaves pitches over the plate early, Lopez could string together two singles. Even so, a player with his power, surrounded by this lineup, has to do a lot to beat 1.5, and I'll lay the price on the under.

  ×

  Nicky Lopez
  H+R+RBI under 1.5

  -165 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Nicky Lopez Under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -165. For the over to cash, Lopez needs two things to happen in the same night: two hits, or a hit plus a run or RBI. His profile makes that a tall ask. He is a slap hitter with one home run and a .309 slugging mark in 230 at bats. His expected stats sit even lower, a .294 expected slug, so there is no hidden damage waiting to show up. When he gets a hit, it is a single, and a single by itself stops at one.

  The lineup around him works against the counting stats. He hits sixth tonight behind Ezequiel Duran, who is 6 for 48 over the last 15 days. That leaves fewer runners on base for Lopez to drive in. Behind him sit Jake Burger, Evan Carter and Danny Jansen, and all three have been cold, so if he reaches, the bats behind him are unlikely to bring him home. His history against Joe Ryan fits the same pattern: 3 for 14 over his career, all singles, no walks. Late in the game he runs into a Minnesota bullpen that was off Thursday, has nobody working a third straight day, and gave up one earned run across three games in San Francisco.

  The case against this is the lineup slot. Lopez has spent most of his season hitting ninth, and moving up to sixth could get him an extra plate appearance. He has also been sharp in September, 9 for 26, and Ryan has been hit hard since coming off the injured list. Lefties have hit him better than righties this year. If Ryan leaves pitches over the plate early, Lopez could string together two singles. Even so, a player with his power, surrounded by this lineup, has to do a lot to beat 1.5, and I'll lay the price on the under.

• GARY'S PICK

  EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBMinnesota Twins· -137

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Emmanuel Rodriguez Over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -137. One hit, one run or one RBI cashes this. The reason I like it is how hard Rodriguez has been hitting the ball. The rookie's contact has been better than his .195 average shows. His expected average is .251 and his expected slugging is .531, well above his actual numbers. The balls he puts in play have deserved more than they've gotten. When he connects, he does damage. He already has two home runs, two doubles and a triple, and any of those gives him both a hit and a chance at a run or RBI in one swing. The game script also helps. deGrom has been pitching through groin tightness and hasn't gone past 94 pitches in a while. He walked four in his last start and lasted only four and a third innings. Hitting eighth, Rodriguez's second or third trip to the plate could easily come against a Texas bullpen whose top bridge arms all worked Wednesday and Thursday. He took pitchers deep late in games during the road trip, homering in the eighth in San Francisco. He's also been drawing walks, and every time he's on base, the top of the order has a chance to drive him in for a run. The case against this is strong. deGrom has held lefties to a .624 OPS this season. Rodriguez has 14 strikeouts in 41 at bats and is 3 for 22 over the last week. His whole major league sample is twelve games, so none of these numbers are settled. Hitting eighth could cost him a plate appearance, and the wind blowing in from right field works against a lefty's fly balls. This is a thin edge. Still, a hitter making contact this hard, with a real chance to see a worn down bullpen, is worth backing at -137.

  ×

  Emmanuel Rodriguez
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -137 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Minnesota Twins

  Read Gary’s Take

  Emmanuel Rodriguez Over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -137. One hit, one run or one RBI cashes this. The reason I like it is how hard Rodriguez has been hitting the ball. The rookie's contact has been better than his .195 average shows. His expected average is .251 and his expected slugging is .531, well above his actual numbers. The balls he puts in play have deserved more than they've gotten. When he connects, he does damage. He already has two home runs, two doubles and a triple, and any of those gives him both a hit and a chance at a run or RBI in one swing.

  The game script also helps. deGrom has been pitching through groin tightness and hasn't gone past 94 pitches in a while. He walked four in his last start and lasted only four and a third innings. Hitting eighth, Rodriguez's second or third trip to the plate could easily come against a Texas bullpen whose top bridge arms all worked Wednesday and Thursday. He took pitchers deep late in games during the road trip, homering in the eighth in San Francisco. He's also been drawing walks, and every time he's on base, the top of the order has a chance to drive him in for a run.

  The case against this is strong. deGrom has held lefties to a .624 OPS this season. Rodriguez has 14 strikeouts in 41 at bats and is 3 for 22 over the last week. His whole major league sample is twelve games, so none of these numbers are settled. Hitting eighth could cost him a plate appearance, and the wind blowing in from right field works against a lefty's fly balls. This is a thin edge. Still, a hitter making contact this hard, with a real chance to see a worn down bullpen, is worth backing at -137.

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