Mets at Nationals

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The research

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All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  FRANCISCO ALVAREZWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBNew York Mets· -175

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm taking Francisco Alvarez under 0.5 walks at -175. The price is steep, and the bat has earned it lately. He has gone eight straight games without drawing a walk and has only two across his last fifteen. When he's going well, he gets his hits by swinging: eight hits in his last seventeen at bats, with the barrel finding the ball early in counts. Tonight he opens against Andrew Alvarez, and Andrew Alvarez's best weapon is a curveball hitters chase out of the zone. A right-handed hitter in attack mode, facing a lefty who lives on getting chases, is more likely to put the ball in play or strike out than to take four balls. He also posts his weakest numbers of the season against left-handed pitching, and that side of his game has never been about patience. The strongest case against this comes from the pitcher. Command has been Andrew Alvarez's biggest flaw all year. He walked four Angels in his seven scoreless innings, and all four were right-handed hitters. Francisco Alvarez also drew a walk in one of his four career plate appearances against him. Batting sixth instead of his usual ninth gives him an extra trip to the plate, and Washington's late relievers issue free passes too, with Tolman and Cruz both working deep counts in Detroit. Over the full season he has drawn a fair number of walks, so the current drought will end eventually. At this price I'm betting on his current approach and the matchup's chase profile holding up for one more night.

  ×

  Francisco Alvarez
  Walks under 0.5

  -175 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  New York Mets

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm taking Francisco Alvarez under 0.5 walks at -175. The price is steep, and the bat has earned it lately. He has gone eight straight games without drawing a walk and has only two across his last fifteen. When he's going well, he gets his hits by swinging: eight hits in his last seventeen at bats, with the barrel finding the ball early in counts. Tonight he opens against Andrew Alvarez, and Andrew Alvarez's best weapon is a curveball hitters chase out of the zone. A right-handed hitter in attack mode, facing a lefty who lives on getting chases, is more likely to put the ball in play or strike out than to take four balls. He also posts his weakest numbers of the season against left-handed pitching, and that side of his game has never been about patience.

  The strongest case against this comes from the pitcher. Command has been Andrew Alvarez's biggest flaw all year. He walked four Angels in his seven scoreless innings, and all four were right-handed hitters. Francisco Alvarez also drew a walk in one of his four career plate appearances against him. Batting sixth instead of his usual ninth gives him an extra trip to the plate, and Washington's late relievers issue free passes too, with Tolman and Cruz both working deep counts in Detroit. Over the full season he has drawn a fair number of walks, so the current drought will end eventually. At this price I'm betting on his current approach and the matchup's chase profile holding up for one more night.

• GARY'S PICK

  ANDRES CHAPARROH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

  MLBWashington Nationals· -151

  LOST · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  I'm taking Andres Chaparro under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at -151. He starts the night against lefty Jefry Yan, and left-handed pitching is where his batting average sags. His power against lefties is real, but he is a low-average hitter on that side, which leaves this total riding on the long ball. His recent form points the same way. He is 3 for 13 over the last week with no homers, struck out twice in each of his last two games, and has driven in one run over his last seven. His contact quality all season has been weaker than his surface line suggests, which tells me his production has been running a little ahead of the way he's actually hitting the ball. One single with nothing else attached cashes this under. The case against is lineup spot and game script. Tonight he bats second, right behind James Wood and his on-base skills, so RBI chances will come, and hitting second means more trips to the plate than his usual workload this year. The Mets are running a bullpen game, so once Yan exits Chaparro gets right-handed arms, and his numbers are better against righties. I also have Washington winning this game, and any crooked number that runs through the top of the order threatens a combo line like this quickly. I still think the sum is a stretch for a hitter scuffling this much, and at -151 I'll take the under.

  ×

  Andres Chaparro
  H+R+RBI under 1.5

  -151 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

  Washington Nationals

  Read Gary’s Take

  I'm taking Andres Chaparro under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at -151. He starts the night against lefty Jefry Yan, and left-handed pitching is where his batting average sags. His power against lefties is real, but he is a low-average hitter on that side, which leaves this total riding on the long ball. His recent form points the same way. He is 3 for 13 over the last week with no homers, struck out twice in each of his last two games, and has driven in one run over his last seven. His contact quality all season has been weaker than his surface line suggests, which tells me his production has been running a little ahead of the way he's actually hitting the ball. One single with nothing else attached cashes this under.

  The case against is lineup spot and game script. Tonight he bats second, right behind James Wood and his on-base skills, so RBI chances will come, and hitting second means more trips to the plate than his usual workload this year. The Mets are running a bullpen game, so once Yan exits Chaparro gets right-handed arms, and his numbers are better against righties. I also have Washington winning this game, and any crooked number that runs through the top of the order threatens a combo line like this quickly. I still think the sum is a stretch for a hitter scuffling this much, and at -151 I'll take the under.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.