Pirates at Tigers
O/U 7.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · Comerica Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Detroit Tigers ML -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 7-8
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 13 moves| Market | Opened Sep 25 5:00 AM | Close Sep 25 6:15 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Pirates -1.5 (+150) | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8 (+100) | 8 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Tigers -110 | Tigers -120 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 25 5:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+150) | 8 (+100) | Tigers -110 · Pirates -110 |
| Sep 25 6:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+150) | 7.5 (-120) | Tigers -110 · Pirates -110 |
| Sep 25 9:00 AM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-120) | Tigers -110 · Pirates -110 |
| Sep 25 12:35 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -110 · Pirates -110 |
| Sep 25 2:40 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+150) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -110 · Pirates -110 |
| Sep 25 3:35 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -110 · Pirates -110 |
| Sep 25 3:50 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+150) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -110 · Pirates -110 |
| Sep 25 3:55 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+155) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -115 · Pirates -105 |
| Sep 25 4:01 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -115 · Pirates -105 |
| Sep 25 4:54 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+165) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -115 · Pirates -105 |
| Sep 25 5:02 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -115 · Pirates -105 |
| Sep 25 5:09 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -120 · Pirates +100 |
| Sep 25 5:56 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 8 (-105) | Tigers -115 · Pirates -105 |
| CLOSESep 25 6:15 PM | Pirates -1.5 (+160) | 8 (-110) | Tigers -120 · Pirates +100 |
The read
Comerica Park opens the final weekend of the season with two 24-year-old right-handers on the mound, Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler, and a Pirates club one win from a winning record. The starters grade out close to even (xERA 4.11 against 4.23), so I'm betting on what happens after they leave. Both have been working inside a 90–96 pitch cap, which leaves each bullpen three or four innings. - Detroit's side: the pen had Thursday off. Kenley Jansen sits at 497 career saves with 0 ER over his last 8.2 innings. - Pittsburgh's side: Mason Montgomery, Gregory Soto, Luke Weaver and Yohan Ramírez all pitched yesterday. Don Kelly's own history says arms coming off that kind of work rarely go again the next day: Montgomery 6 of 23, Soto 6 of 26. - The squeeze: the Pirates pen already covered 12.0 innings in three days and has a 1:10 bullpen game tomorrow. The bridge tonight likely runs through Carmen Mlodzinski (7 K against 6 BB over 30 days) and Brandon Eisert (16.20 ERA over the last week). - Recent evidence: Pittsburgh's relievers let 3 of the 5 runners Chandler left on base score over his last two starts.
The matchup at the plate supports it. Chandler allows a .761 OPS to left-handed hitters, with 12 HR over 318 AB, and walks 4.52 per nine. Detroit's two best bats fit that profile: Kevin McGonigle is .864 OPS against right-handers and Riley Greene .863. Walks and extra-base hits from the 3 and 5 spots are how Detroit scores even when the ball isn't carrying. Jobe is also trending the right way, with 24 K and 4 BB over 17.1 innings in his last three starts.
The case against Detroit is real. - Cold offense: the Tigers have scored 2.8 runs per game over their last five. - The park: Comerica's 0.95 park factor takes some power away from those lefty bats. - Jobe's fastball: his four-seamer has allowed a .436 xwOBA. Oneil Cruz (.414 against four-seamers) and Brandon Lowe (.384) have measured production against exactly that pitch. - Motivation: Pittsburgh has a goal to play for.
But the Pirates can reach that goal Saturday or Sunday. Detroit's pen has blown 32 saves this season, but tonight it is the rested one. At -108, while most books have moved to Detroit at -113 to -119, I'm taking the fresh bullpen over the tired one in a game both starters will leave early.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Spencer Torkelson: 1.177 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.177Spencer Torkelson has a 1.177 OPS over the last 15 days against .752 for the season. At 38 at-bats, a couple of homers carry that number, so it should come down. His total-bases line against Pittsburgh is 0.5, meaning one hit cashes it, and with 25 home runs on the year that low bar is the part that matters.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Pirates are 2-1 vs Tigers this season
2-1Pittsburgh is 2-1 against Detroit, with a 4-3 win last time. Three games, one decided by a run, says little about tonight. Start with the pitching matchup.
REGRESSION
Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games (.357 win rate)
15-27Detroit Tigers are 15-27 in one-run games in the 2026 regular season (42 completed games). They are 59-58 in their other 117 completed games.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 25, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKKEVIN MCGONIGLESINGLES OVER 0.5
I'm taking Kevin McGonigle over 0.5 singles at +120. He bats third tonight, which gets him about four and a half trips to the plate. He has been one of the steadiest contact bats in this lineup all September.
The platoon side is in his favor. McGonigle is a left-handed hitter with an .864 OPS against right-handers across 490 plate appearances, compared with .669 against lefties. Bubba Chandler is a right-hander whose trouble this season has come from the left side: a .761 OPS allowed to lefties against .622 to righties, and 12 of his 15 home runs allowed. Chandler also walks more than four batters per nine, so hitters in the middle of the order tend to get ahead in the count and see fastballs to put in play.
The recent form is loud. McGonigle has singled in most of his last fifteen games, including multi-single games against Lovelady, Fedde, Scherzer and Soriano. He is averaging more than one single per game over the last week, well above his season pace of 0.8. Comerica's deep outfield takes away some carry, but it does not take away ground balls through the right side, which is where a hitter like him gets paid. If Chandler leaves in the fifth or sixth, as he usually does, McGonigle's late trips come against a Pirates bullpen that burned four arms Thursday.
The case against him: his patience is part of why he is good. He has 94 walks this season, and the walk prop is priced close to even, so one or two of those trips could end at first base without a swing. His September power is up as well, with three homers and two triples in fifteen games, so a good night could show up as doubles instead of singles. This is also his first look at Chandler, so there is no track record between them. At plus money for a leadoff-quality bat hitting from the favorable side, I'll accept those risks.
- GARY'S PICKJAKE MANGUMH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
I'm taking Jake Mangum under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -150. His role explains most of this. Mangum spent the heart of his season at the top of the order, and tonight he bats ninth. That costs him plate appearances and puts him behind Horwitz and Flores. He is projecting under four trips, and a ninth hitter sees fewer RBI chances.
The bat has also gone quiet. He is hitless in his last three games, 0 for 9 against St. Louis and Kansas City, and his last fifteen games have averaged 1.2 on this combined stat against a season mark of 1.7. His underlying contact backs up the slide: the quality of his batted balls projects a lower average and much less slug than his actual line, so the .275 on the scoreboard has been running ahead of how hard he is hitting the ball. His September OPS is under .600.
The matchup does not help him. Mangum is a switch hitter, so against Jackson Jobe he hits from the left side. Left-handed batters have managed a .668 OPS against Jobe this season, and Jobe has struck out 24 against 4 walks over his last three starts. When Jobe leaves, Detroit's bullpen had Thursday off and every arm is available.
The risk is his legs. Mangum has 23 steals, so one single can become a run scored with a stolen base and a hit behind him, and that clears the line. His full-season average also sits above 1.5, and he showed on September 19 that one swing can do it all at once. At the bottom of this lineup against a pitcher who has been tough on lefties, though, I want the under.
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