Diamondbacks at Padres
O/U 7.5 · RL Padres -1.5 · Petco Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Diamondbacks ML +114
- Published odds
- +114
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 11-4
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 19 moves| Market | Opened Sep 25 5:00 AM | Close Sep 25 9:25 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Padres -1.5 (+155) | Padres -1.5 (+170) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-120) | 7.5 (-115) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Padres -140 | Padres -120 | +20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 25 5:00 AM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | 7 (-120) | Padres -140 · Diamondbacks +115 |
| Sep 25 6:00 AM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (+105) | Padres -140 · Diamondbacks +115 |
| Sep 25 9:00 AM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-105) | Padres -140 · Diamondbacks +115 |
| Sep 25 10:41 AM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -140 · Diamondbacks +115 |
| Sep 25 11:06 AM | Padres -1.5 (+150) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -130 · Diamondbacks +110 |
| Sep 25 12:35 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -140 · Diamondbacks +115 |
| Sep 25 1:43 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -130 · Diamondbacks +110 |
| Sep 25 6:52 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -130 · Diamondbacks +110 |
| Sep 25 6:55 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -130 · Diamondbacks +110 |
| Sep 25 7:10 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -125 · Diamondbacks +105 |
| Sep 25 7:10 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -125 · Diamondbacks +105 |
| Sep 25 7:16 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -130 · Diamondbacks +110 |
| Sep 25 7:25 PM | Padres -1.5 (+165) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -130 · Diamondbacks +110 |
| Sep 25 7:40 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -125 · Diamondbacks +105 |
| Sep 25 7:51 PM | Padres -1.5 (+155) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -125 · Diamondbacks +105 |
| Sep 25 9:10 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -125 · Diamondbacks +105 |
| Sep 25 9:10 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -125 · Diamondbacks +105 |
| Sep 25 9:10 PM | Padres -1.5 (+160) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -125 · Diamondbacks +105 |
| Sep 25 9:25 PM | Padres -1.5 (+170) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -120 · Diamondbacks +100 |
| CLOSESep 25 9:25 PM | Padres -1.5 (+170) | 7.5 (-115) | Padres -120 · Diamondbacks +100 |
The read
Game 1 of the final weekend at Petco Park: the Diamondbacks walk in needing nearly every game left on the schedule, against a Padres club that locked up its postseason berth last night in Los Angeles. What carries this pick is what San Diego's pitching looks like after the first four or five innings. Casey Mize has a 6.64 ERA across 40.2 innings since the trade, hasn't gotten through six innings in any of the last five starts, and has 8 walks over the last 13.2 innings. That hands a lot of outs to a bullpen whose three best arms, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Yuki Matsui, each pitched Wednesday and Thursday. This season Stammen has brought those three back for a third straight day 2 times in 31 chances, and the Padres have a Wild Card game on Tuesday.
Arizona's late innings look the opposite. Jonathan Loáisiga, Juan Morillo, Brandyn Garcia and Justin Martinez all last pitched Wednesday. Over the last 30 days the first three have ERAs of 0.71, 1.64 and 0.73, and Martinez hasn't allowed an earned run all season. Lovullo is managing like it's an elimination game. Brandon Pfaadt has been ordinary lately, with a 4.85 ERA over the last five starts, but usually gets into the sixth. Pfaadt has a 2.45 ERA in three starts against San Diego this year and draws a Padres lineup that is six right-handed bats deep. That is Pfaadt's strong side: right-handed hitters have a .599 OPS against him all season. Gabriel Moreno, with a .907 OPS against right-handers, gets the best individual matchup in the game against Mize's .833 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters.
The case against me is real. Petco (0.92 park factor) and a 10 mph wind blowing in from left suppress exactly the fly-ball damage Mize tends to allow. The Padres are 49-29 at home. And the big three being down is a read of how Stammen has used them, not a published restriction; with home field in the Wild Card round at stake, Miller could still show up in a tight ninth. But at -134 the market is still pricing the Padres' usual bullpen. Tonight's middle innings likely go to arms like Kyle Hart and Wandy Peralta, who have 8.31 and 5.56 ERAs over the last 30 days. At plus money, I'll take the team with the starter more likely to go deep and the rested bullpen behind him.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Nolan Arenado: 1.388 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.388Nolan Arenado is squaring everything up, a 1.388 OPS over the last 15 days against a .796 season mark. It is 44 at-bats, short enough for a few big games to carry it, so expect some drift back. His 29 home runs say the power is real, and a proven slugger running hot against San Diego is a reason to check his prop prices before they adjust.
Jackson Merrill: 1.093 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.093Jackson Merrill has a 1.093 OPS over the last 15 days against .740 for the season. The 56 at-bats are sturdier than most hot runs, though it is still two weeks. His 26 home runs back up the power, so against Arizona he is best seen as a good hitter running hot, with some cooling likely.
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.119 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.119Tatis is up 0.294 on his .825 season OPS over the last 15 days. At 55 AB this is a larger sample than most hot streaks, though two weeks is still two weeks. His 25 home runs back up the power. With a 1.5 total-bases line at home against Arizona, the recent form and the season track record point the same direction.
STREAK
ARI have won 5 straight
W5Arizona has outscored opponents by 17 runs during this five-game win streak, so most of these were comfortable. Over the last 10 the team is 6-4, which places the streak inside an ordinary stretch. Five games is a short run. On the road in San Diego, the 6-4 is the steadier read when judging the price.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 25, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKLARS NOOTBAARH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
I'm taking Lars Nootbaar under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -152. His season average sits right on the line at 1.5 per game over 87 games, but that average is built on a few big nights. He had five last night at Coors and seven against Miami on September 14. His ordinary night is a zero or a one. In the other games of his last two weeks he went hitless against Schlittler, Cole, Gusto and Junk, and he went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts in Denver on Wednesday.
Tonight's setup favors the quiet version. Casey Mize has been far better against left-handed hitters all season, holding them to a .612 OPS with 5 home runs in 275 at-bats. Most of that sample comes from his Detroit months, but the split has held with San Diego. His damage lately has come from righties, and Nootbaar is one of only three lefty bats in this Arizona lineup. As the leadoff man, Nootbaar's RBI chances depend on the bottom of the order, and that part of the lineup is thin: Tim Tawa is 2 for 20 over the last week, and Jordan Lawlar and Pavin Smith are part-time bats. The book prices his RBI over at +260 for good reason. Petco plays pitcher-friendly, and a 10 mph wind blowing in from left takes away some of his carry to the pull side.
The case against me: Nootbaar hits right-handed pitching well, with a .758 OPS this year. Mize has a 7.27 ERA in four starts at Petco and was hit hard by Arizona twice this season. Arizona has scored 7.4 runs a game during its five-game win streak. Mize's command has also slipped, with 8 walks over his last 13.2 innings, and a leadoff hitter who gets one hit and then scores ahead of Moreno and Perdomo cashes the over. I still like a lefty hitting at the top against Mize's better side, in this park, at this price.
- GARY'S PICKSAMAD TAYLORH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Samad Taylor over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -151. This one needs a single, a run scored or a driven-in run, and his spot in the order sets that up well. He bats ninth, directly in front of Fernando Tatis Jr., who has a 1.087 OPS in September and five home runs over his last fifteen days. When Taylor gets on, he runs: 12 steals in 145 at-bats. With Tatis and Dustin Harris behind him, a walk can turn into a run the way it did in Los Angeles on Wednesday. Against right-handed pitching this year Taylor has an .846 OPS over 118 plate appearances. He came into the Dodgers series on a run of multi-hit games against Miami and Colorado, and the Padres have been the best offense in baseball this month.
The case against this is real, and the price reflects it. Brandon Pfaadt is at his best against right-handed hitters, who have a .599 OPS and only 2 home runs in 225 at-bats against him this season. Taylor's contact quality this season, with an expected average of .253 and expected slugging of .325 over 168 plate appearances, falls well short of his .324 actual average, so some of his production has been fortunate. He went 0 for 7 with four strikeouts against Yamamoto and Glasnow the last two nights. Hitting ninth also gives him the fewest trips to the plate, roughly 3.7 a game. With the Padres already clinched, Stammen could lift him late for Jase Bowen or Austin Hays, and that would take away a final chance against Arizona's rested bullpen. The small sample and the gap in his contact quality are why my conviction is modest. Still, a hot bottom-of-the-order bat with speed, hitting in front of Tatis, only needs one thing to go right, and -151 is a fair price for that.
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