Reds at Blue Jays
O/U 7.5 · RL Blue Jays -1.5 · Rogers Centre
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -154
- Published odds
- -154
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 5-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 20 moves| Market | Opened Sep 25 5:00 AM | Close Sep 25 6:55 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Blue Jays -1.5 (+138) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-117) | 8 (-117) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Blue Jays -122 | Blue Jays -148 | −26 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 25 5:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+138) | 7.5 (-117) | Blue Jays -122 · Reds +102 |
| Sep 25 6:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) | 7.5 (-118) | Blue Jays -127 · Reds +106 |
| Sep 25 9:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 7.5 (-117) | Blue Jays -143 · Reds +120 |
| Sep 25 10:41 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+143) | 8 (-115) | Blue Jays -121 · Reds +102 |
| Sep 25 11:06 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+132) | 8 (-115) | Blue Jays -132 · Reds +110 |
| Sep 25 12:35 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+138) | 7.5 (-118) | Blue Jays -125 · Reds +105 |
| Sep 25 12:50 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+133) | 8 (-114) | Blue Jays -130 · Reds +108 |
| Sep 25 2:40 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+132) | 8 (-115) | Blue Jays -130 · Reds +108 |
| Sep 25 3:10 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+138) | 7.5 (-117) | Blue Jays -124 · Reds +104 |
| Sep 25 3:35 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-117) | Blue Jays -141 · Reds +118 |
| Sep 25 3:40 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+118) | 8 (-117) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
| Sep 25 4:01 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-112) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +120 |
| Sep 25 4:22 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-115) | Blue Jays -139 · Reds +117 |
| Sep 25 4:54 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+118) | 8 (-115) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
| Sep 25 5:20 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+117) | 8 (-118) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
| Sep 25 5:28 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+117) | 7.5 (-127) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
| Sep 25 5:56 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-112) | Blue Jays -143 · Reds +120 |
| Sep 25 6:15 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-113) | Blue Jays -143 · Reds +120 |
| Sep 25 6:52 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-117) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
| Sep 25 6:52 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) | 7.5 (-125) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
| CLOSESep 25 6:55 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-117) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
The read
The final weekend of the season opens under a closed roof at Rogers Centre, with two eliminated clubs playing for pride and Nick Lodolo facing José Soriano. It stings for a lifelong Reds guy to write this, but the edge tonight sits with Toronto, and it shows up in the innings after the starters leave.
Two things carry this pick. First, Cincinnati's top three relievers all pitched last night in Atlanta: Pagán threw 14 pitches, Burke 8 and Antone 15. This season, after a light outing, those three have pitched the next day just 6 of 24, 8 of 37 and 4 of 25 times. That likely hands the middle and late innings to Johnson (4.72 ERA), Ashcraft (4.32) and Mey (5.79). Toronto's pen, by contrast, had Tuesday and Thursday off, with Varland (1.29 ERA) and Rogers (1.8) rested. Second, Lodolo faces eight right-handed bats, and righties have hit him for an .834 OPS and 16 of the 20 homers he has allowed. His road ERA is 5.97, and the Reds arrive with zero days of rest after a night game in Atlanta. On price, both starters' ERAs beat their xERA, but Lodolo's gap (5.04 vs 6.42) is about twice Soriano's (3.72 vs 4.38). The fragile number the market is leaning on sits mostly on the Cincinnati side of this line.
The case against Toronto is real. The Jays' bats are ice cold: they scored two or fewer runs in 5 of their last 10, and the heart of the order has almost no recent extra-base damage. Soriano's Toronto version has pitched to a 5.01 ERA over eight starts. De La Cruz is hot and carries a .470 xwOBA against four-seamers, which is exactly the pitch Soriano leans on. And -154 is the steep end of the market. I take Toronto anyway because the Reds need two things to go right: Lodolo has to work deep on the road, and a pen whose best three arms worked last night has to hold. Toronto only needs its rested bullpen to be what it has been all year. Blue Jays moneyline.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
COOLING OFF
Hector Rodriguez: .176 OPS in Last 15 Days
.176Hector Rodriguez has a .176 OPS over the last 15 days in 34 at-bats, 0.449 below his .625 season mark. That baseline is low, so even a bounce back leaves a below-average bat. The number should rise, but only toward .625, which limits his ceiling against Cincinnati either way.
STREAK
TOR games have gone UNDER 5 straight
U5Toronto games have averaged 7.2 runs during five straight unders, with totals around 7.7. That is about a half-run margin, so several of these could have flipped on one swing. Tonight's total against Cincinnati is 7.5, right where the streak has lived. Five games at that margin is thin evidence either way.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 25, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKNICK LODOLOK'S UNDER 4.5
Nick Lodolo under 4.5 strikeouts at -158. The price is steep, and the matchup still earns it.
Lodolo has averaged about four strikeouts a start across 20 starts this year, with 80 strikeouts in 103.2 innings. His swing and miss has faded lately. His whiff numbers have slid start by start, and the last one against the Cubs was the lowest of the run. He went seven innings that night and struck out one batter. Francona said it plainly: he didn't strike out very many, but he pitched well. That is the version of Lodolo we have now. Since he changed his breaking ball grip because of the blister, he has pitched to contact and gotten outs on balls in play.
Toronto is a bad lineup to count strikeouts against. Tonight's nine is one of the tougher groups in the league to put away. Kirk, Guerrero, Lukes, Clement and Straw all make steady contact, and Clement has struck out twice in his last 15 games. Lodolo also sees eight right-handed bats, and his recent starts against righties have produced very few punchouts. He fanned none of the 19 right-handers he faced last time out. Adrian Johnson is behind the plate, and his games have run below league average on strikeouts.
The case for the over is length. Lodolo has gone seven innings in back-to-back starts, and more batters faced means more chances. His curveball still misses bats and gets chases when he lands it. Okamoto has struck out 180 times, and Springer has struck out six times in his last week. One good curveball night could push him to five. Even so, he needs a big day against a contact lineup, working without the swing and miss he had earlier in the year. I'll lay the juice. Under 4.5.
- GARY'S PICKJOSE SORIANOPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
José Soriano over 1.5 earned runs at -135. The line needs two earned runs, and Soriano has given up at least that many almost every time out since the middle of August.
His last eight starts ran 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 3 and 1 earned runs. His September ERA is 5.48, and his last three starts produced 11 earned runs in 18.1 innings. The stuff is still loud: an upper-90s four-seamer and sinker, with a knuckle curve and splitter that miss bats. His fastballs are the pitches that have been hit this year, though, and his command is still described as inconsistent. The Blue Jays' own evaluation says the real mechanical work waits until the winter in Dunedin. Games in the final weekend don't usually get cleaner.
The Reds can do damage at the top of the order. De La Cruz has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this month, with nine homers in September, and he has three games left to chase his 30th steal. Sal Stewart has 32 homers. Suárez and Bleady both have taken Soriano deep before in limited looks. Two runs can come from one swing, or from a walk and a stolen base in front of a gap hit.
The case against is real. The bottom of this Reds lineup is thin. Trevino, Cabrera, Jorge and Brito from the right side have hit very little, and Cincinnati has scored just over three runs a game across its last ten. Soriano threw seven scoreless innings against the Reds in April. He has pitched well at Rogers Centre in a small sample, and the Reds strike out a lot, which fits his curveball and splitter. Still, his recent run of starts says two runs is the normal outcome, and -135 is a fair price for it. Over 1.5.
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