Cardinals at Brewers

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  SAL FRELICKH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

  MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -143

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Sal Frelick under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -143. Frelick bats eighth tonight, so he gets three or four trips to the plate, and the lineup around him gives him little help. His season line against right-handers is a .649 OPS with three homers. His expected contact numbers sit almost exactly on top of his actual ones, so no hidden bad luck is waiting to turn over. Over his last 15 games he has averaged under one in this combined stat, and he has scored once this month. The spots around him make it harder. To score, Frelick needs David Hamilton behind him, and Hamilton has three hits over the last 15 days. To drive runs in, he needs Joey Ortiz and Luis Lara on base ahead of him, and Lara is 2 for 14 over the past week. Frelick rarely strikes out and puts the ball in play, which keeps a single in reach. A lone single does not cash the over, though. From the eighth spot he needs two hits, or a hit plus a run or RBI. The case against is real. McGreevy has been more hittable by left-handed bats all season, with most of the homers he has allowed coming from that side. This is a hitter-leaning park against a Cardinals club I already faded on the moneyline. Frelick also got to two on Thursday in Philadelphia with a double and an RBI, and his one career look at McGreevy was a double, though that is a two-plate-appearance sample and tells me nothing. I trust his own profile against righties over the pitcher's split, and -143 is a fair price for a bottom-of-the-order bat who has cleared this number only occasionally in September.

  ×

  Sal Frelick
  H+R+RBI under 1.5

  -143 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Milwaukee Brewers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Sal Frelick under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -143. Frelick bats eighth tonight, so he gets three or four trips to the plate, and the lineup around him gives him little help. His season line against right-handers is a .649 OPS with three homers. His expected contact numbers sit almost exactly on top of his actual ones, so no hidden bad luck is waiting to turn over. Over his last 15 games he has averaged under one in this combined stat, and he has scored once this month.

  The spots around him make it harder. To score, Frelick needs David Hamilton behind him, and Hamilton has three hits over the last 15 days. To drive runs in, he needs Joey Ortiz and Luis Lara on base ahead of him, and Lara is 2 for 14 over the past week. Frelick rarely strikes out and puts the ball in play, which keeps a single in reach. A lone single does not cash the over, though. From the eighth spot he needs two hits, or a hit plus a run or RBI.

  The case against is real. McGreevy has been more hittable by left-handed bats all season, with most of the homers he has allowed coming from that side. This is a hitter-leaning park against a Cardinals club I already faded on the moneyline. Frelick also got to two on Thursday in Philadelphia with a double and an RBI, and his one career look at McGreevy was a double, though that is a two-plate-appearance sample and tells me nothing. I trust his own profile against righties over the pitcher's split, and -143 is a fair price for a bottom-of-the-order bat who has cleared this number only occasionally in September.

• GARY'S PICK

  ROBERT GASSERPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

  MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +117

  LOST · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Robert Gasser over 1.5 walks at +117. His September ERA looks clean, but the free passes never went away. He walked three at Baltimore in his last start, two against the Reds, two in each of his two outings against the Cubs, and four against Seattle before that. The run prevention improved while the walks stayed where they were. Brewer Fanatic flagged this in its Game 3 discussion, noting he issued a fair number of walks during the stretch. Gasser said himself that his changeup carried him at Baltimore once his command began to falter. The handedness mix pushes the same way. Right-handed hitters have handled Gasser far better than lefties this season, and St. Louis puts six right-handed bats in the order tonight. That is the side where he has had to work around hitters more carefully. Stu Scheurwater has the plate, and his games have run a touch above league average in walks. At plus money, I only need Gasser's usual pattern to hold for two free passes. The strongest case against is the setting. Milwaukee has the No. 1 seed locked, and Gasser is lined up for an October start, so a short tune-up would cut the number of batters he faces. The Cardinals are also a low-walk offense as a team, drawing a bit over three a game. Jordan Walker is chasing through a deep slump, and Victor Scott II and Pedro Pages rarely work counts. I still like the price. Even in his shorter September outings of four and five innings, Gasser reached two walks, so a trimmed pitch count does not take this away from him.

  ×

  Robert Gasser
  Pitcher Walks over 1.5

  +117 · LOST · ACTUAL 1

  Milwaukee Brewers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Robert Gasser over 1.5 walks at +117. His September ERA looks clean, but the free passes never went away. He walked three at Baltimore in his last start, two against the Reds, two in each of his two outings against the Cubs, and four against Seattle before that. The run prevention improved while the walks stayed where they were. Brewer Fanatic flagged this in its Game 3 discussion, noting he issued a fair number of walks during the stretch. Gasser said himself that his changeup carried him at Baltimore once his command began to falter.

  The handedness mix pushes the same way. Right-handed hitters have handled Gasser far better than lefties this season, and St. Louis puts six right-handed bats in the order tonight. That is the side where he has had to work around hitters more carefully. Stu Scheurwater has the plate, and his games have run a touch above league average in walks. At plus money, I only need Gasser's usual pattern to hold for two free passes.

  The strongest case against is the setting. Milwaukee has the No. 1 seed locked, and Gasser is lined up for an October start, so a short tune-up would cut the number of batters he faces. The Cardinals are also a low-walk offense as a team, drawing a bit over three a game. Jordan Walker is chasing through a deep slump, and Victor Scott II and Pedro Pages rarely work counts. I still like the price. Even in his shorter September outings of four and five innings, Gasser reached two walks, so a trimmed pitch count does not take this away from him.

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