Blue Jays at Yankees
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees -1.5 +115
- Published odds
- +115
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 1-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Friday night in the Bronx brings a familiar division fight, but the pitching plans could not be more different. Toronto opens with Mason Fluharty, while New York hands the game to Cam Schlittler, and I’m laying the run and a half with the Yankees. Schlittler has a 2.19 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 152 innings; Fluharty has a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 51 innings, with his three starting assignments lasting 1.0, 1.1 and 1.1 innings. That means Toronto must execute several pitching changes before New York has to make its first.
The lineup construction gives New York an immediate opening. Right-handed hitters have batted .318 with a .908 OPS against Fluharty, while left-handers have managed a .154 average and .440 OPS. The Yankees are sending six right-handed bats to the plate. Schlittler has given Toronto far less platoon leverage, holding left-handed hitters to a .201 average and .589 OPS and right-handed hitters to .190 with a .538 OPS. There is risk in his 3.95 home ERA, and Toronto has played good baseball recently, but the Blue Jays have faced him three times and scored four earned runs across 18 1/3 innings.
The separation comes from the entire pitching chain. New York’s bullpen carries a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, compared with Toronto’s 3.12 and 1.18, and the recent gap is wider: 1.85 versus 3.21 over the last seven games. The Yankees have also generated the harder recent contact, posting a 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 46.4% hard-hit rate over their last three games against Toronto’s 84.8 mph and 25.8%. In a hitter-friendly park with the wind moving toward right field, I want plus money behind the club with the better starter, deeper bullpen and stronger current contact. Yankees -1.5 is the ticket.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
1.000Leadoff against a lefty stacks Goldschmidt's night with the matchup he's built for, and leadoff means more trips than anybody else in that lineup. Fluharty being left-handed is doing all the work here.
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 4th against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
.794Cleanup against a righty is the highest-leverage spot for this kind of split to show up — Sanchez is already hitting in the RBI spot and the matchup says he's built for this specific arm. I like this landing right in the middle of the order, where a mistake costs the most.
HEAT CHECK
Alejandro Kirk: 1.170 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.170Kirk's in the middle of a real heater, a 1.170 OPS over 42 plate appearances. Tonight's total bases line is only 0.5, so all he needs is one single against Yankees pitching, and I'm on the over.
Trent Grisham: 1.008 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.008Grisham's running a 1.008 OPS over his last 48 plate appearances, and tonight's total bases line is only 0.5 — one single against Toronto gets it done. With 17 homers already this year, there's more upside than the line accounts for, and I'm on the over.
COOLING OFF
Luis Garcia Jr.: .490 OPS in Last 15 Days
.490Garcia's approach has gone cold, a .490 OPS over his last two weeks. Against the Yankees, I'd want to see him quiet things down and find line drives instead of chasing the big swing back.
Ben Rice: .620 OPS in Last 15 Days
.620Rice is still getting a near-everyday workload through this .620 OPS stretch, so it's not a playing-time issue — more like tough sequencing than a broken swing. I'd still lean on him in on-base and hit props tonight rather than fade him.
BULLPEN
New York Yankees pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
13 IPThe Yankees' pen has thrown 13 innings over the last three games with four arms already doubling up. Some real fatigue there heading into tonight against Toronto.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of TOR @ NYY
NRFIBoth sides have been quiet early lately — the Yankees have allowed a first-inning run just twice in their last ten games, Toronto three times, 15 clean openers between them. Schlittler's held hitters to a .196 average in first innings this season too. I like the no-run first inning at -135 tonight.
RUNNING GAME
Green light: New York Yankees run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 16%
16% CSNothing about Kirk behind the plate at 16% caught stealing discourages anyone from running, so New York can turn a leadoff single into a runner on third before the next hitter even sees two strikes. That takes the bat out of it for Toronto's staff, who now have to pitch around movement instead of just attacking the hitter. I expect the Yankees to press early and turn single-run innings into bigger ones.
BALLPARK
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.95 ERA
3.95Schlittler's a different pitcher at home than on the road, a 3.95 ERA at Yankee Stadium against a sharp 1.14 mark everywhere else, even with hitters only batting .253 off him there. Worth factoring in with him on the mound tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Yankees are 8-6 vs Blue Jays this season
8-6The Yankees lead this season series 8-6 over Toronto and took the last meeting 4-3. I like them to hold that edge tonight.
STREAK
NYY have won 4 straight
W4Strip out the streak and the other six games in that window were 2-4 — this wasn't a team rolling the whole time. Ten runs of separation over four games is steady, not spectacular, and steady tends to be the more repeatable kind of winning.
TEAM RECORD
Blue Jays 6-2 in Mason Fluharty's last 8 starts
6-2Toronto's 6-2 in Fluharty's last eight because the whole team tightens up — fewer letdowns, enough runs early, a pen that holds leads. That's the kind of habit that travels, and they're taking it into New York tonight. I like the Jays.
CUT LIST
Brett Bateman
0.626 OPSBateman's .271 average looks like something to build around, but a .626 OPS out of the leadoff spot tells you it's empty. Toronto keeps writing him in first, so his whole fantasy case is 'he gets a lot of at-bats,' not that he does much with them. Leadoff guys need to be doing more than just not striking out — this is a batting-average mirage with nothing behind it. Cut him. The average alone doesn't carry a .626 OPS.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored August 20, 2026 at 4:07 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCAM SCHLITTLERPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5
Schlittler has held Toronto to four earned runs across 18 1/3 innings this season, including one run in each of his last two meetings with them. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in 18 of 26 starts overall, and Toronto now comes into the rematch without Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette or Andrés Giménez in the starting lineup. The home split is the concern, but Schlittler has limited hitters on both sides of the plate to an OPS below .600. Against this diminished order, under 1.5 earned runs is worth laying the short price.
- GARY'S PICKPAUL GOLDSCHMIDTH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Goldschmidt leads off and is guaranteed the best matchup Toronto's pitching plan offers. He owns a .310 average and 1.000 OPS against left-handers, while opener Mason Fluharty has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .318 with a .908 OPS. Fluharty is only expected to work briefly, but Goldschmidt should get that matchup once before facing Spencer Arrighetti in his first appearance back from the injured list. I only need one hit, run or RBI from a leadoff hitter getting four or five plate appearances, and even money is too light for that setup.
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