Blue Jays at Yankees

Friday night in the Bronx brings a familiar division fight, but the pitching plans could not be more different. Toronto opens with Mason Fluharty, while New York hands the game to Cam Schlittler, and I’m laying the run and a half with the Yankees. Schlittler has a 2.19 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 152 innings; Fluharty has a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 51 innings, with his three starting assignments lasting 1.0, 1.1 and 1.1 innings. That means Toronto must execute several pitching changes before New York has to make its first.

The lineup construction gives New York an immediate opening. Right-handed hitters have batted .318 with a .908 OPS against Fluharty, while left-handers have managed a .154 average and .440 OPS. The Yankees are sending six right-handed bats to the plate. Schlittler has given Toronto far less platoon leverage, holding left-handed hitters to a .201 average and .589 OPS and right-handed hitters to .190 with a .538 OPS. There is risk in his 3.95 home ERA, and Toronto has played good baseball recently, but the Blue Jays have faced him three times and scored four earned runs across 18 1/3 innings.

The separation comes from the entire pitching chain. New York’s bullpen carries a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, compared with Toronto’s 3.12 and 1.18, and the recent gap is wider: 1.85 versus 3.21 over the last seven games. The Yankees have also generated the harder recent contact, posting a 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 46.4% hard-hit rate over their last three games against Toronto’s 84.8 mph and 25.8%. In a hitter-friendly park with the wind moving toward right field, I want plus money behind the club with the better starter, deeper bullpen and stronger current contact. Yankees -1.5 is the ticket.