Dodgers picks

Down 3-0, the Dodgers take the field at Dodger Stadium tonight one loss from the end of their bid to become the first National League team to win three consecutive World Series. The Brewers, swept by this same club in this same round a year ago, are one win from their first World Series in 44 years, and their fans are filling American Family Field for a watch party. I'm still taking the team that has to win. Only one dugout has to manage like there's no tomorrow. Milwaukee gets another shot tomorrow, so Pat Murphy has every reason to keep Game 5 in mind. Dave Roberts doesn't. Edwin Díaz is fully rested, Tanner Scott sat out last night, and every leverage arm Los Angeles has is available. The Brewers' plan looks thin. Shane Drohan opens what the beat writers call a bullpen game, and it's a postseason debut. Drohan has allowed 15 earned runs in 20.1 innings with 10 walks over the last five starts. Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe, Milwaukee's two most-used late-inning arms, both pitched last night, and so did DL Hall. Nobody has confirmed whether any of them can go. Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela, Chad Patrick and Kyle Harrison are fresh, but if this one is close late, the Crew may not have its best relievers to close it out. Tyler Glasnow can carry one game. The walks are a real worry: 16 in 27 innings over the last five starts, and 5 in the NLDS start at Atlanta. But that same outing allowed just 1 hit across 4.2 innings. Los Angeles needs a strong start before handing the ball to a rested bullpen, and Glasnow has shown it's possible. Shohei Ohtani is back at leadoff. Scoring has been the Dodgers' problem all series, and Roberts answered by putting the club's best hitter at the top against a left-hander who has struggled. What could burn me: Milwaukee has won tight games all October, with Chourio and Contreras delivering big moments, and the Brewers came back from three deficits in Game 2. If the Dodgers' bats stay quiet, a rested bullpen won't matter, and an early lead built on Glasnow walks would turn the building fast. Still, the team that needs it tonight has the fresher bullpen at the top. The Dodgers live to see Game 5.